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Supporting Carbon Pricing
How to identify policies that genuinely complement
an economy-wide carbon price
Canada’s Ecofiscal Commission
June 2017
Overview
1. Context
2. A framework for thinking about complementarity
3. Applying the framework
4. Three case studies:
• Federal methane regulations
• Quebec electric vehicle subsidies
• Alberta coal phase-out
5. Building a climate policy package
6. A note on coordination and federalism
7. Recommendations
2
Ecofiscal’s third major report on
climate policy
3
1. Context
Key policy questions
1. What non-pricing policies might make sense in addition to
carbon pricing?
2. How can policy-makers identify those policies that
genuinely complement a carbon price... But also those that
don’t?
3. How can governments assemble a policy package that will
achieve our GHG objectives at lowest cost?
4
1. Context
Examples of non-pricing climate
policies
5
1. Context
Defining ‘complementary’
• A climate policy is complementary to a carbon price if:
– It is effective (delivers additional GHG mitigation)
– It is cost-effective (more on defining this later)
…not all additional climate policies are complementary
• Of course, other considerations can matter too:
– Fairness
– Competitiveness
– Political acceptability
• We focus on effectiveness and cost-effectiveness
6
1. Context
A framework for assessing additional policies
7
1.What is the rationale for
the additional policy?
2. How does it interact with
carbon pricing?
3. How is the policy
designed?
What does that mean for
effectiveness
(i.e., emissions reduced)
What does that mean for
cost-effectiveness
(i.e., the costs of doing so)
2. Framework
1. Rationale for complementarity
• Gap-filler:The policy covers GHG emissions not
covered by the carbon price
– e.g., Montreal Protocol regulating HFCs
• Signal-booster:The policy addresses market
problems to make carbon pricing work better
– e.g., Providing EV charging network infrastructure
• Benefit-expander:The policy achieves both GHG
mitigation and other objectives
– e.g., Measures to improve urban walkability
8
2. Framework
2. Policy interactions
• Complementary policies and carbon taxes can
support each other (additional GHG mitigation)
• Complementary policies and cap-and-trade
systems can overlap with each other
(GHG mitigation not necessarily additional)
• Interactions affect linked cap-and-trade systems
in a slightly different way (financial flows can
also be affected)
9
2. Framework
3. Design Details
• Stringency: increases policy
effectiveness
• Coverage: increases policy
effectiveness
• Flexibility: reduces the costs of
policy, improving cost-
effectiveness
• Predictability: leads to more
emissions reductions and lower
costs
• Good governance: improves
policy performance
10
2. Framework
Putting it all together
11
3. Applying the framework
Step 1: Describe key policy characteristics
12
3. Applying the framework
Step 2: Assess likely policy performance
13
3. Applying the framework
Step 3: Quantify emissions reductions and
costs
Emissions reductions:
• The difference between two cases:
1) emissions levels under the policy
(i.e., the policy case)
2) emissions levels in the absence of the policy
(i.e., the counterfactual)
Costs:
14
3. Applying the framework
Step 4: Benchmark cost-effectiveness
15
3. Applying the framework
Case studies
1. Federal methane regulations
2. Quebec electric vehicle subsidies
3. Alberta coal phase-out
16
4. Case studies
1. Federal regulation of oil and gas
methane emissions
Description:
Federal regulation to
reduce oil & gas methane
emissions 40-45% below
2012 levels by 2025
Approach:
Literature review
(Regulatory Impact
Analysis Statement)
17
4. Case studies
18
1. Federal regulation on oil and gas methane
emissions
4. Case studies
2. Electric vehicle subsidies in Quebec
Description:
• “Drive Electric” program -
subsidy of up to $8,000
per vehicle
• Runs until 2020 or until
available $93M is
exhausted
Approach:
Modeling by Navius
Research
19
4. Case studies
2. Electric vehicle subsidies in Quebec
20
4. Case studies
2. Electric vehicle subsidies in Quebec
21
4. Case studies
3. Alberta phase-out of coal-fired
electricity
Description:
Phasing-out coal-fired
electricity generation in the
province by 2030
Approach:
Modeling by Ecofiscal
Commission
22
4. Case studies
3. Alberta phase-out of coal-fired
electricity
23
4. Case studies
Health benefits of
$21/tonne
Case Study Summary
24
4. Case studies
Building a climate policy package
25
5. Policy packages
Easy Hard
Gap-fillers Signal-boosters
Benefit-expanders
26
Building a climate policy package
 Harmonize implicit and explicit prices
 Use caution with overlapping policies
 Use integrated modelling to forecast GHG reductions
and to assess interactions
 Implement regular review and evaluation of GHG
policies
 Define processes for intergovernmental coordination
5. Policy packages
27
6. Coordination
Implications for federal non-pricing
policies that overlap with carbon pricing
BC and Alberta Carbon taxes:
emissions reductions
costs
Ontario and Quebec
cap-and-trade systems:
emissions reductions
costs
permit imports from
California
Not
applicable to
‘gap-filling’
policies
e.g., CFS
28
6. Coordination
Implications for provincial actions under
the Pan Canadian Framework
BC and Alberta Carbon taxes:
Provincial complementary policies do
not contribute to required policy
action under PCF
(minimum carbon price unaffected)
Ontario and Quebec
cap-and-trade systems:
Provincial complementary policies do
contribute to required policy action
under PCF (declining caps are “easier”
to achieve)
These effects could increase the differences in
explicit carbon prices seen across provinces
Recommendations
29
7. Recommendations
1. Governments should make carbon pricing the core of their
climate policy, with steadily increasing stringency
2. Governments should clearly demonstrate
complementarity before adopting non-pricing policies
• Gap-filling
• Signal-boosting
• Benefit-expanding
3. Governments should strive to coordinate carbon pricing
and complementary policies across the country
Recommendations
30
6. Recommendations
4. Governments should regularly review and assess both
individual climate policies and the larger policy package
5. Governments should rely on integrated modelling to
assess the overall effectiveness of proposed and existing
policies
6. With the implementation of an economy-wide carbon
price, governments should phase out and avoid
redundant, high-cost, or ineffective policies
Supporting Carbon Pricing: complementary climate policies that work with carbon pricing

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Supporting Carbon Pricing: complementary climate policies that work with carbon pricing

  • 1. Supporting Carbon Pricing How to identify policies that genuinely complement an economy-wide carbon price Canada’s Ecofiscal Commission June 2017
  • 2. Overview 1. Context 2. A framework for thinking about complementarity 3. Applying the framework 4. Three case studies: • Federal methane regulations • Quebec electric vehicle subsidies • Alberta coal phase-out 5. Building a climate policy package 6. A note on coordination and federalism 7. Recommendations 2
  • 3. Ecofiscal’s third major report on climate policy 3 1. Context
  • 4. Key policy questions 1. What non-pricing policies might make sense in addition to carbon pricing? 2. How can policy-makers identify those policies that genuinely complement a carbon price... But also those that don’t? 3. How can governments assemble a policy package that will achieve our GHG objectives at lowest cost? 4 1. Context
  • 5. Examples of non-pricing climate policies 5 1. Context
  • 6. Defining ‘complementary’ • A climate policy is complementary to a carbon price if: – It is effective (delivers additional GHG mitigation) – It is cost-effective (more on defining this later) …not all additional climate policies are complementary • Of course, other considerations can matter too: – Fairness – Competitiveness – Political acceptability • We focus on effectiveness and cost-effectiveness 6 1. Context
  • 7. A framework for assessing additional policies 7 1.What is the rationale for the additional policy? 2. How does it interact with carbon pricing? 3. How is the policy designed? What does that mean for effectiveness (i.e., emissions reduced) What does that mean for cost-effectiveness (i.e., the costs of doing so) 2. Framework
  • 8. 1. Rationale for complementarity • Gap-filler:The policy covers GHG emissions not covered by the carbon price – e.g., Montreal Protocol regulating HFCs • Signal-booster:The policy addresses market problems to make carbon pricing work better – e.g., Providing EV charging network infrastructure • Benefit-expander:The policy achieves both GHG mitigation and other objectives – e.g., Measures to improve urban walkability 8 2. Framework
  • 9. 2. Policy interactions • Complementary policies and carbon taxes can support each other (additional GHG mitigation) • Complementary policies and cap-and-trade systems can overlap with each other (GHG mitigation not necessarily additional) • Interactions affect linked cap-and-trade systems in a slightly different way (financial flows can also be affected) 9 2. Framework
  • 10. 3. Design Details • Stringency: increases policy effectiveness • Coverage: increases policy effectiveness • Flexibility: reduces the costs of policy, improving cost- effectiveness • Predictability: leads to more emissions reductions and lower costs • Good governance: improves policy performance 10 2. Framework
  • 11. Putting it all together 11 3. Applying the framework
  • 12. Step 1: Describe key policy characteristics 12 3. Applying the framework
  • 13. Step 2: Assess likely policy performance 13 3. Applying the framework
  • 14. Step 3: Quantify emissions reductions and costs Emissions reductions: • The difference between two cases: 1) emissions levels under the policy (i.e., the policy case) 2) emissions levels in the absence of the policy (i.e., the counterfactual) Costs: 14 3. Applying the framework
  • 15. Step 4: Benchmark cost-effectiveness 15 3. Applying the framework
  • 16. Case studies 1. Federal methane regulations 2. Quebec electric vehicle subsidies 3. Alberta coal phase-out 16 4. Case studies
  • 17. 1. Federal regulation of oil and gas methane emissions Description: Federal regulation to reduce oil & gas methane emissions 40-45% below 2012 levels by 2025 Approach: Literature review (Regulatory Impact Analysis Statement) 17 4. Case studies
  • 18. 18 1. Federal regulation on oil and gas methane emissions 4. Case studies
  • 19. 2. Electric vehicle subsidies in Quebec Description: • “Drive Electric” program - subsidy of up to $8,000 per vehicle • Runs until 2020 or until available $93M is exhausted Approach: Modeling by Navius Research 19 4. Case studies
  • 20. 2. Electric vehicle subsidies in Quebec 20 4. Case studies
  • 21. 2. Electric vehicle subsidies in Quebec 21 4. Case studies
  • 22. 3. Alberta phase-out of coal-fired electricity Description: Phasing-out coal-fired electricity generation in the province by 2030 Approach: Modeling by Ecofiscal Commission 22 4. Case studies
  • 23. 3. Alberta phase-out of coal-fired electricity 23 4. Case studies Health benefits of $21/tonne
  • 24. Case Study Summary 24 4. Case studies
  • 25. Building a climate policy package 25 5. Policy packages Easy Hard Gap-fillers Signal-boosters Benefit-expanders
  • 26. 26 Building a climate policy package  Harmonize implicit and explicit prices  Use caution with overlapping policies  Use integrated modelling to forecast GHG reductions and to assess interactions  Implement regular review and evaluation of GHG policies  Define processes for intergovernmental coordination 5. Policy packages
  • 27. 27 6. Coordination Implications for federal non-pricing policies that overlap with carbon pricing BC and Alberta Carbon taxes: emissions reductions costs Ontario and Quebec cap-and-trade systems: emissions reductions costs permit imports from California Not applicable to ‘gap-filling’ policies e.g., CFS
  • 28. 28 6. Coordination Implications for provincial actions under the Pan Canadian Framework BC and Alberta Carbon taxes: Provincial complementary policies do not contribute to required policy action under PCF (minimum carbon price unaffected) Ontario and Quebec cap-and-trade systems: Provincial complementary policies do contribute to required policy action under PCF (declining caps are “easier” to achieve) These effects could increase the differences in explicit carbon prices seen across provinces
  • 29. Recommendations 29 7. Recommendations 1. Governments should make carbon pricing the core of their climate policy, with steadily increasing stringency 2. Governments should clearly demonstrate complementarity before adopting non-pricing policies • Gap-filling • Signal-boosting • Benefit-expanding 3. Governments should strive to coordinate carbon pricing and complementary policies across the country
  • 30. Recommendations 30 6. Recommendations 4. Governments should regularly review and assess both individual climate policies and the larger policy package 5. Governments should rely on integrated modelling to assess the overall effectiveness of proposed and existing policies 6. With the implementation of an economy-wide carbon price, governments should phase out and avoid redundant, high-cost, or ineffective policies

Editor's Notes

  1. Use a verbal walk through example when presenting this
  2. Step 5 is to make an assessment re: complementarity
  3. Policy will apply nationally, but British Columbia, Alberta, and Saskatchewan will be disproportionately affected because of their large oil & gas sectors The three provinces each have planned or existing measures covering methane from oil & gas, but typically focus only on emissions from venting and flaring Affected provinces will likely be able to pursue equivalency agreements Quantity-focused policy and will not stipulate use of specific technologies Regulations will not interact with carbon pricing policies directly, they could interact with offset systems Timetable for implementation recently pushed back from 2018-2020 to 2020-2023
  4. Alberta has 18 coal plants in total, responsible for 38% of the province’s electricity generating capacity and 62% of its electricity generation; 6 are captured by this policy In Alberta, the sector’s emissions currently fall under the Specified Gas Emitters Regulation, but as of 2018, they will be regulated under the province’s planned Carbon Competitiveness Regulation $1.3 billion compensation payout to the owners of the 6 coal plants spread out between 2017 and 2030
  5. Co-benefits reduce the cost of the policy by $21/tonne
  6. Three case studies, three different results Remember—case studies aren’t intended to be the last word: intended to illustrate application (and utility) of the framework …They highlight the importance of considering policy interactions, as well as co-benefits
  7. Three case studies, three different results Remember—case studies aren’t intended to be the last word: intended to illustrate application (and utility) of the framework …They highlight the importance of considering policy interactions, as well as co-benefits
  8. -PCF’s carbon price instrument flexibility affects the incentives for implementing complementary policies -To the extent that the GHG mitigation ambition of a carbon-taxing province is only defined by the requirements of the Pan-Canadian Framework, it may choose to leave opportunities for low-cost mitigation from complementary policies unrealized -upshot would be higher overall cost of GHG mitigation and additional complications for firms operating in multiple provinces with divergent policies