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A SocioEconomic Profile
 Erie County, Pennsylvania




             Produced by the
     Economic Profile System (EPS)
            February 14, 2009
Erie County, Pennsylvania                                                                                             About EPS
About The Economic Profile System (EPS)
This profile was produced using the 2008 version of the Economic Profile System (EPS), last updated in February 2009. EPS is designed
to allow users to produce detailed socioeconomic profiles automatically and efficiently at a variety of geographic scales using the
spreadsheet program Microsoft Excel.
Profiles contain tables and figures that illustrate long-term trends in population; employment and personal income by industry; average
earnings; business development; retirement and other non-labor income; commuting patterns; agriculture; and earnings by industry.
Databases used for EPS profiles are from: Bureau of the Census including County Business Patterns; Bureau of Labor Statistics; and the
Regional Economic Information System (REIS) of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce.
EPS was developed in partnership with the Bureau of Land Management by Ray Rasker, Jeff van den Noort, Ben Alexander and Patty
Gude.


EPS and Acrobat files (.pdf) of completed profiles for the West are available for free download at www.headwaterseconomics.org.


For technical questions about EPS, contact Jeff van den Noort at jeff@headwaterseconomics.org.




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based on over 20 years of work with communities, landowners, public land managers and elected officials. Our mission is to improve
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The Bureau of Land Management (BLM), an agency within the U.S. Department of the Interior, administers 262 million surface acres of
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Erie County, Pennsylvania                                    Table of Contents

           About the Economic Profile System
           Table of Contents
           Read This First
           Demographics, Employment and Income
                       Demographics, Employment and Income             1
                       Population Trends                               2
                       Population                                      3
                       Age and Gender                                  4
                       Income Distribution & Housing                   5
                       Employment                                      6
                       Employment                                      7
                       Personal Income                                 8
                       Proprietors                                     9
                       Non-labor Income                               10
                       Transfer Payments                              11
                       Personal Income                                12
                       Government Employment                          13
                       Earnings Per Job                               14
                       Per Capita Income                              15
                       Firms by Industry                              16
                       Firms by Industry in 2001 (NAICS)              17
                       Firms by Size                                  18
                       Unemployment Trends                            19
                       Commuting                                      20
                       Agriculture (Business Income)                  21
           Relative Performance Comparisons
                       Relative Performance Comparisons               22
                       Specialization                                 23
                       Stability                                      24
                       Performance Comparisons                        25
           Employment and Personal Income by Industry
                       Employment and Income by Industry               26
                       Read This First                                 27
                       Employment (SIC)                                28
                       Employment (NAICS)                              29
                       Personal Income (SIC)                           30
                       Personal Income (NAICS)                         31
                       Wages and Employment                            32
                       Data Sources                               Data Sources
                       Methods                                      Methods
                       Glossary                                     Glossary




                                       Table of Contents
Erie County, Pennsylvania                                                                                 Read This First
There are two related systems for producing socioeconomic profiles: this one, the Economic Profile System (EPS) and the Economic
Profile System Community (EPSC). For best results, use both profile systems. Below is a table highlighting how the two systems
complement each other.

                                                           EPS                                                 EPSC
     Geographic level of detail     Nation                                               Nation, Region, Division, States, Counties,
                                    Region (metro, non-metro, total)                     County Subdivisions, Places (Towns), Indian
                                                                                         Reservations, Congressional Districts
                                    State (metro, non-metro, total)
                                    County
     Databases used                 Bureau of the Census (Census)                        Bureau of the Census, Decennial Census of
                                    County Business Patterns (CBP)                       Population and Housing, 1990, 2000. (1990 to
                                                                                         2000 comparisons at the county level only)
                                    Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
                                    Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Regional
                                    Economic Information System (REIS)
     Time series used               Continuous data from 1970 to the most recent         2000. At the county level only 1990 to 2000
                                    data available.                                      comparisons can be made to show changes in
                                                                                         age and household income distribution.

     Advantages                     Long-term trend analysis including trends in   Age distribution, race, housing costs, housing
                                    employment and personal income by sector, the affordability, education rates, poverty.
                                    number of businesses establishments by type
                                    and size, and non-labor sources of income such
                                    as retirement and age-related income.
                                    Wages by Industry.                                   Finer geographic detail.
                                    Counties are compared to states and nation. Key
                                    indicators of performance are benchmarked
                                    against the US medians.
     Disadvantages                  For some counties employment and personal            Census data is never suppressed, but it is less
                                    income data may be suppressed for some               useful than REIS data used in EPS to see long-
                                    industries and for some years. EPS includes a        term trends by industry; it is only available only
                                    system for estimating these data gaps.               for 2000 with limited comparisons to 1990.


Important notes:
1)   Total employment figures from the Regional Economic Information System (used in most of EPS) and the other sources can
     differ for the following reasons:
     - Census employment figures are reported by place of residence, while BEA REIS and the other sources are by place of work.
      - BEA REIS counts all jobs, regardless of whether part-time or whether a person has several jobs. For example, if a person has
     three part-time jobs, they count it as three jobs.
     - In some areas seasonality may play a role: the census is taken in the spring, a shoulder season for many “resort” areas, while
     BEA REIS data is an annual average.
     - BEA REIS includes sole proprietors and government employment while County Business Patterns and BLS Wages do not.

     - Earnings from BEA REIS on pages 14 and 25 include the value of benefits while the wages on page 32 from the BLS do not.


2)   Tables and charts may be copied from Excel into any other program, like Word or PowerPoint: highlight the selection, choose
     copy from the edit menu, then open Word or PowerPoint and insert by choosing "Paste Special" in the Edit Menu. We
     recommend that you paste charts as a picture.
3)   This profile also shows business cycles, represented as vertical bars on selected charts.
4)   EPS is updated every year with the latest figures.
5)   All income figures in this profile (except for the graph on the top of page 5) are adjusted for inflation reported in 2006 dollars.




                                                                  Introduction
Erie County, Pennsylvania                             Demographics, Employment and Income

The following pages (2-25) contain long-term trends in demographics, employment and income. No disclosure restrictions occur in this
section.



In this section you will learn about:

  1. Changes in population, age distribution, household income distribution and housing affordability.
  2. Comparisons of the county to the state and the nation.
  3. Employment and income by type: proprietors versus wage and salary.
  4. Personal income by type: labor versus non-labor income.
  5. The role of transfer payments.
  6. How well does this area recover from recessions?
  7. Trends in government employment.
  8. Earnings per job versus per capita income.
  9. Growth in firms by size and industry type.
  10. Unemployment rates.
  11. Cross-county flow of dollars via commuting.
  12. Trends in agricultural businesses.




Highlights - In Erie County, Pennsylvania:
These highlights are based on how this area compares to the distribution of all of the counties in the United States. See the methodology
section at the end for more information.
 • Population Growth (Annualized rate, 1970-2006) was somewhat slow.
 •   Employment Growth (Annualized rate, 1970-2006) was somewhat slow.
 •   Personal Income Growth (Adjusted for Inflation, Annualized rate, 1970-2006) was somewhat slow.
 •   Non-labor Income Share of Total in 2006 was roughly average.
 •   Median Age* was somewhat young.
 •   Per Capita Income (2006) was roughly average.
 •   Average Earnings Per Job (2006) was somewhat high.
 •   Education Rate* (% of population 25 and over who have a college degree) was somewhat high.
 •   Education Rate* (% of population 25 and over who have less than a high school diploma) was somewhat low.
 •   Employment Specialization* was roughly average.

 •   Rich-Poor Ratio* (for each household that made over $100K, how many households made less than $30K) was roughly average.

     Housing Affordability in 2000 (100 or above means that the median family can afford the median house)* was roughly average
 •   affordable.

 •   Government share of Total employment was somewhat low.
 •   Unemployment Rate in 2007** was roughly average.



* from 2000 US Census ** from Bureau of Labor Statistics




Demographic, Employment and Income Trends                                                                                          Page 1
Erie County, Pennsylvania                                                                                                 Population Trends

Population

                                                                                                    Population Trends
                                                            285.0

                                                            280.0                                                                                                 279,686
 •   From 1970 to 2006
                                      Thousands of People

     population grew by
     15,371 people, a 6%                                    275.0
     increase in population.
                                                            270.0

                                                            265.0

 •   At an annual rate, this                                260.0
     represents an increase
     of 0.2%.
                                                            255.0
                                                                       70

                                                                              73

                                                                                     76

                                                                                            79

                                                                                                   82

                                                                                                          85

                                                                                                                  88

                                                                                                                         91

                                                                                                                                94

                                                                                                                                       97

                                                                                                                                              00

                                                                                                                                                     03

                                                                                                                                                            06
                                                                     19

                                                                            19

                                                                                   19

                                                                                          19

                                                                                                 19

                                                                                                        19

                                                                                                                19

                                                                                                                       19

                                                                                                                              19

                                                                                                                                     19

                                                                                                                                            20

                                                                                                                                                   20

                                                                                                                                                          20
The vertical shaded bars on the figure below represent the last five recession periods: November 1973 to March 1975; January 1980 to
July 1980; July 1981 to November 1982; July 1990 to March 1991; March 2001 to November 2001. More information about recessions
is available on the next page.

Population Growth Compared to the State and the Nation
                                                                                                  Population Comparison
                                                                                                   Population Comparison
 •   Over the last 36 years
     population growth in Erie
                                                              160
                                                            160 160
                                                                                                                                                                 145
     County, Pennsylvania                                     140                                                                                                147
                                                                                                                                                                   145
                                                            140 140
                                       Population (Index 1970=100)




     has been the same as
                                      Population (Index 1970=100)
                                     Population (Index 1970=100)




     Pennsylvania and                                         120
     slower than the nation.                                120 120
                                                                                                                                                                 106
                                                                                                                                                                 105
                                                              100                                                                                                  106
                                                                                                                                                                   105
                                                                                                                                                                 106
                                                                                                                                                                 105
                                                            100 100
                                                                8080
 •   Population growth is not                                80
     generally impacted by                                      6060
     national recessions.                                    60
                                                                4040
                                                             40
                                                                2020
                                                             20                                                                                            - -

 •   Data is indexed by                                        - -
                                                                                                                                                            -
     dividing by the value in                               -
                                                              721 7 0
                                                            19 972
                                                            19 774
                                                            19 1 976
                                                            19 978
                                                            19 780
                                                            19 19982
                                                            19 984
                                                            19 986
                                                            19 19 8

                                                                     0
                                                            19 992
                                                            19 19 94

                                                               19 6
                                                                    78
                                                               20 00

                                                               20 2
                                                                   04

                                                                  066
                                                                    0


                                                              761 3

                                                                    6


                                                              821 9
                                                              841 82

                                                                  85

                                                              901 88


                                                                    1

                                                              9619 4




                                                              0220 0

                                                                    3
                                                            19 1 97




                                                                  98
                                                                  99




                                                                   9
                                                                  99


                                                                   0


                                                               20 0




     1970 times 100. A
                                                              781 7




                                                                  9




                                                            20 0
                                                               199




                                                               199




                                                                  9
                                                              9419


                                                              9819
                                                              0020


                                                              0420
                                                              0620
                                                                9




                                                                9




                                                               19




                                                               19
                                                              701


                                                              741




                                                              801




                                                              861
                                                              881


                                                              921




     value of 100 indicates
                                                            19




                                                            19




                                                            19
                                                            20


                                                            20
                                                            20




     that it has not changed                                                   Recession Bars
                                                                                       Recession Bars                    Erie County, Pennsylvania
                                                                                                                                 Erie County, Pennsylvania
                                                                                 National Recessions                       Erie County, Pennsylvania
     since 1970.                                                               Pennsylvania
                                                                                       Pennsylvania                      United States States
                                                                                                                                 United
                                                                                 Pennsylvania                              United States

Source: BEA REIS 2006 Table CA30




Page 2                                                                                                         Demographic, Employment and Income Trends
Erie County, Pennsylvania                                                                                                                           Population

How well do we recover from recessions?
An important indicator of economic performance is the ability to recover quickly from recessions.

A recession is defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research as “a significant decline in activity spread across the economy,
lasting more than a few months, visible in industrial production, employment, real income, and wholesale-retail sales.”
The graph below shows how well we have recovered from the last five recessions. The recovery periods are from the end of one
recession (the trough) to the beginning of the next recession (the peak).



This type of graph is repeated throughout the profile to show how the area recovers from recessions compared to the state and the nation.

See www.nber.org/cycles.html for more information about business cycles.




                                                                             Population Growth During Recent Recoveries -
                                                                          Annualized % Change from Trough to Following Peak
 •   In the latest recovery (2001 to
     2006), population growth in
                                                          1.4%
                                                                                                                                                    1.2%
     the United States (up 0.9%)                          1.2%
                                                                                 1.1%
     outpaced Pennsylvania and                                                                          1.0%
     Erie County, Pennsylvania.                           1.0%                                                                0.9%                                        0.9%
                                        Annual % Change




                                                          0.8%
 •   Similarly, in the last recovery
     (1991 to 2001), the United                           0.6%
     States (up 1.2%) grew the
     fastest.                                             0.4%
                                                                                                                                             0.3%
                                                                                         0.2%                                                                      0.2%
                                                          0.2%                                                                        0.1%
                                                                   0.1%                                                0.1%

 •   In the recovery from 1982 to
     1990, the United States (up
                                                          0.0%
                                                                          0.0%
                                                                                                -0.1%
     0.9%) grew the fastest.                              -0.2%                                                                                            -0.1%
                                                                                                               -0.2%
                                                          -0.4%
                                                                  1975 to 1980          1980 to 1981           1982 to 1990          1991 to 2001          2001 to 2006


                                                                  Erie County, Pennsylvania - Population                      Pennsylvania - Population
                                                                  United States - Population




Source: BEA REIS 2006 Table CA30




Demographic, Employment and Income Trends                                                                                                                                    Page 3
Erie County, Pennsylvania                                                                                                                                  Age and Gender
                                                                                                                                                                               (From EPSC)

•   The population has
    gotten older since
                                Population by Age and Sex
    1990. The median age                                                                                                                                                              Density
    in 2000 is 36.2 years,                                                                                                           40 - 54 (Baby                  Median             (Pop.
    up from 32.9 years in                                                           Total        Under 20 years                      Boom in 2000) 65 years and over Age              per sq.
    1990.                                                                          Number         Number Share                            NumberShare      Number Share                 mi.)
                               Total Population
                                 2000                                               280,843       80,092           29%                    60,412    22%    40,256    14%      36.2       350.2
•   The largest age              1990                                               275,572       82,322           30%                    44,422    16%    38,025    14%      32.9       343.6
    category is 15 to 19         10 Yr. Change                                        5,271        (2,230)           -1%                  15,990    5%      2,231       1%     3.3         6.6
    years old (22,404
                                 10 Yr. % Change                                            2%        -3%                                     36%              6%              10%         2%
    people or 8.0% of the
    total).                    2000 Sex Breakout
                                     Male                                           136,967       41,067           30%                    30,054    22%    16,109    12%      34.6
•   Total Population in              Female                                         143,876       39,025           27%                    30,358    21%    24,147    17%      37.7
    2000 was 280,843             Male/Female Split                                49% / 51%        51% / 49%                              50% / 50%         40% / 60%
    people, up 2% from
                                                                                                                                          2000 Table SF1 - P12 & 1990 SF1 Table P05 & P12
    275,572 in 1990.

•   The age group that has     In the graphs below, changes in population by age are shown two ways. The "Change in Population" graph
    grown the fastest, as a    illustrates how each age bracket has changed in the last 10 years. The "Change in Share" graph illustrates
    share of total, is 45 to   how each category has changed as a share of total. Note that an age bracket can have an increase in
    49 years , up 6,552        population while declining as a share of total. The "Change in Share" graph usually demonstrates how the
    people. Their share of     baby boom has caused a demographic shift in the population (growth in the 40-60 age brackets).
    total rose by 2.2%
                               Note: In aggregated profiles, medians are interpolated.

                                      2000 Breakout                                                      Change in Population                                 Change in Share of Total
                                                                                                             (90-2000)                                              (90-2000)
    85 years and over                             3,539 1,353                                                            1,572


        80 to 84 years                           3,985   2,248                                                           1,853


        75 to 79 years                          5,474     3,689                                                          1,872


        70 to 74 years                         5,854       4,412                                                     35


     65 and 69 years                            5,295      4,407                                           3,031


     60 and 64 years                            5,624         5,078                                          2,300


        55 to 59 years                     6,951                 6,503                                                    1,968


        50 to 54 years                   8,608                     8,577                                                          5,307


        45 to 49 years                10,583                          10,420                                                        6,552


        40 to 44 years                11,167                          11,057                                                 4,131


        35 to 39 years                 10,286                         9,997                                      1,315


        30 to 34 years                   8,976                      9,171                                4,202


        25 to 29 years                   8,419                     8,659                                   3,164


        20 to 24 years                 10,090                         10,329                                  1,707


        15 to 19 years                11,020                             11,384                                      103


        10 to 14 years                  9,881                         10,370                                          802


          5 to 9 years                  9,747                         10,250                                       396


        Under 5 years                    8,377                      9,063                                    2,533



                         15.0 10.0     5.0              0.0           5.0          10.0 15.0      -5.0             0.0                      5.0     10.0   -2.0%    0.0%     2.0%    4.0%
                                     Thousands of People                                                 Thousands of People                                   Thousands of People

                                          Male                Female                                  Change 1990-2000                                              Change in Share

Source: Census 2000 and Census 1990




Page 4                                                                                                                      Demographic, Employment and Income Trends
Erie County, Pennsylvania                                               Income Distribution & Housing
                                                                                                                                         (From EPSC)
Income Distribution -                                            Household Income Distribution (Not adjusted for inflation)
Households
                                       Less than $10,000                                                                                      16,948
                                                                                                                  10,749
 •   In 1999, for every
     household that made over         $10,000 to $14,999                                                         10,468
                                                                                                      8,442
     $100K, there were 6.4            $15,000 to $19,999                                                       10,019
                                                                                                   7,926
     households that made
                                      $20,000 to $24,999                                                       9,936
     under $30K. 10 years                                                                             8,381
     earlier, for every household     $25,000 to $29,999                                                   9,408
                                                                                                     8,077
     that made over $100K,                                                                               9,120
     there were 24.7 households       $30,000 to $34,999                                         7,253
     that made under $30K.            $35,000 to $39,999                                           7,575
                                                                                                7,014
                                      $40,000 to $44,999                                     6,382
                                                                                               6,873
                                                                                     5,079
 •   Please note that the
     income distribution is not
                                      $45,000 to $49,999                                5,818
                                      $50,000 to $59,999                                    6,814
     adjusted for inflation so                                                                                9,768
                                      $60,000 to $74,999                             5,006
     some of the changes are                                                                                     10,661
     due to inflation.                $75,000 to $99,999                   2,602                                                    1989
                                                                                                       8,665
                                    $100,000 to $124,999           914                                                              1999
                                                                             3,252
                                    $125,000 to $149,999          443
                                                                     1,308
                                       $150,000 or more             938
                                                                         2,301

                                                           0.0       2.0     4.0     6.0   8.0    10.0   12.0                14.0      16.0     18.0
                                                                                     Thousands of Households


Housing Affordability - Owner Occupied

 •   The housing affordability       Owner Occupied Housing Affordability                                                     1990              2000
     index is 186, which
     suggests that the median
                                     Specified owner-occ. housing units: Median value (2000 $'s)                       $      70,619    $        85,300
     family can afford the
     median house. *                 % of median income necessary to buy the median house                                        14%                   13%
                                     Income required to qualify for the median house                                   $      23,818    $        24,103
 •   Housing has become more
     affordable in the last
                                     Housing Affordability Index: (100 or above means that the median
                                     family can afford the median house.)*                                                       178                   186
     decade, from 178 in 1990
                                     Universe: Specified owner-occupied housing units                                               Census SF3 - H76
     to 186 in 2000.

                                     Income in:                                                                               1989              1999
                                     Per capita income                                                                                  $        17,932
                                     Median household income (Adj. for Inflation in 2000 $)                            $      35,021    $        36,627
                                     Median family income (Adj.for Inflation in 2000 $)                                $      42,352    $        44,829
                                     Universe: Total population, Households, Families                                      Census SF3 - P82,P53,P77

                                     * Note: The housing affordability figures assume a 20% down payment and that no more than 25%
                                     of a family's income goes to paying the mortgage. It is based on an interest rate of 10.01% in 1990
                                     and 8.03% in 2000. Use this statistic as a comparative, rather than absolute, measure.




Source: Census 2000 and Census 1990




Demographic, Employment and Income Trends                                                                                                         Page 5
Erie County, Pennsylvania                                                                                                            Employment
Long term trend
                                                                       180.0
                                                                                                                                                           165,688
                                                                       160.0

 •   From 1970 to 2006, 48,278 new                                     140.0




                                              Thousands of Jobs
     jobs were created.
                                                                       120.0
                                                                       100.0
                                                                             80.0
 •   From 1970 to 2006, the majority of
     job growth, 75% of new jobs, was in                                     60.0
     wage and salary employment
                                                                             40.0
     (people who work for someone
     else).                                                                  20.0
                                                                                                                                                      -
                                                                              0.0
                                                                               70

                                                                               73

                                                                               76

                                                                               79

                                                                               82

                                                                               85

                                                                               88

                                                                               91

                                                                               94

                                                                               97

                                                                               00

                                                                               03

                                                                               06
                                                                             19

                                                                             19

                                                                             19

                                                                             19

                                                                             19

                                                                             19

                                                                             19

                                                                             19

                                                                             19

                                                                             19

                                                                             20

                                                                             20

                                                                             20
 •   Wage and salary employment                                              160.0
     (people who work for someone                                            140.0                                                                         138,901
     else) contributed 75% of new
                                                         Thousands of Jobs




     employment from 1970 to 2006,                                           120.0
     and 62% of new employment since                                         100.0
     1995.                                                                    80.0
                                                                              60.0
                                                                              40.0
 •   In 1970, proprietors represented                                         20.0
                                                                                                                                                            26,787

     12.6% of total employment; by
                                                                               0.0
     2006, they represented 16.2%.
                                                                                 70

                                                                                 73

                                                                                 76

                                                                                 79

                                                                                 82

                                                                                 85

                                                                                 88

                                                                                 91

                                                                                 94

                                                                                 97

                                                                                 00

                                                                                 03

                                                                                 06
                                                                               19

                                                                               19

                                                                               19

                                                                               19

                                                                               19

                                                                               19

                                                                               19

                                                                               19

                                                                               19

                                                                               19

                                                                               20

                                                                               20

                                                                               20
                                                                                              Wage and salary jobs           Number of proprietors

Wages and Salaries vs. Proprietors
Changes from 1970 to 2006
                                                                                                                                      % of     New    % of
                                                                                                                                 New   New Employm    New
                                                                                     % of                            % of Employme Employm ent (95- Employ
                                                                   1970              Total      1995       2006      Total nt (70-06)   ent     06)   ment
Total full-time and part-time employment     117,410                                         154,222    165,688             48,278              11,466 100.0%
 Wage and salary jobs                        102,644                                87.4%    131,832    138,901   83.8%     36,257    75.1%      7,069      61.7%


 Number of proprietors                        14,766                                12.6%     22,390     26,787   16.2%     12,021    24.9%      4,397      38.3%
     Number of nonfarm proprietors 5/         12,793                                10.9%     20,850     25,299   15.3%     12,506    25.9%      4,449      38.8%
     Number of farm proprietors                        1,973                         1.7%      1,540      1,488      0.9%     -485       NA          -52        NA

Proprietors include sole proprietorships, partnerships, and tax-exempt cooperatives. A sole proprietorship is an unincorporated business
owned by a person. A partnership is an unincorporated business association of two or more partners. A tax-exempt cooperative is a
nonprofit business organization that is collectively owned by its members.

Wage and salary employment refers to employees.
Source: BEA REIS 2006 Table CA30




Page 6                                                                                                    Demographic, Employment and Income Trends
Erie County, Pennsylvania                                                                                                     Employment

How well do we recover from recessions?

 •   In the latest recovery
     (2001 to 2006),
                                                                                Employment During Recent Recoveries -
                                                                           Annualized % Change from Trough to Following Peak
     employment growth in the                               4.0%
     United States (up 1.3%)                                                2.9%
     has outpaced                                           3.0%                                          2.5%
     Pennsylvania and Erie
                                                                                                       1.8%               1.9%
     County, Pennsylvania.                                  2.0%                                   1.6%
                                          Annual % Change

                                                                       1.2%                                                              1.3%
                                                                                                                       1.1%
 •   Similarly, in the last                                                                 0.9%                   0.9%              0.9%
                                                            1.0%    0.5%                                                         0.5%
     recovery (1991 to 2001),
     the United States (up
                                                            0.0%
     1.9%) grew the fastest.
                                                            -1.0%                      -0.6%



 •   In the recovery from 1982                              -2.0%
                                                                                    -2.1%
     to 1990, the United States
     (up 2.5%) grew the                                     -3.0%
     fastest.                                         Erie County, Pennsylvania - Employment1982 to 1990 1991 to 2001 2001 to 2006
                                                                1975 to 1980 1980 to 1981      Pennsylvania - Employment
                                                      United States - Employment




Job Growth Compared to the State and the Nation

 •   Over the last 36 years
     population growth in Erie
                                                                               Jobs Compared to the State and the Nation
                                                            250
     County, Pennsylvania has
     been faster than
     Pennsylvania and slower
                                                            200                                                                                  195
     than the nation.
                                   Jobs (Index 1970=100)




 •   Some areas can
     experience employment                                  150
                                                                                                                                                 141
                                                                                                                                                 140
     gains even during
     recessions. If so, check
     to see how much is due to                              100
     migration and population
     changes.
                                                            50

                                                                                                                                             -
                                                             0
                                                              70
                                                              72
                                                              74
                                                              76
                                                              78
                                                              80
                                                              82
                                                              84
                                                              86
                                                              88
                                                              90
                                                              92
                                                              94
                                                              96
                                                              98
                                                              00
                                                              02
                                                              04
                                                              06
                                                            19
                                                            19
                                                            19
                                                            19
                                                            19
                                                            19
                                                            19
                                                            19
                                                            19
                                                            19
                                                            19
                                                            19
                                                            19
                                                            19
                                                            19
                                                            20
                                                            20
                                                            20
                                                            20




                                                                            National Recessions                  Erie County, Pennsylvania
                                                                            Pennsylvania                         United States




Source: BEA REIS 2006 Table CA30




Demographic, Employment and Income Trends                                                                                                              Page 7
Erie County, Pennsylvania                                                                                                                            Personal Income
Long term trend
                                                                                                                            Total Personal Income
• From 1970 to 2006, personalin                                                        9.0




                                         Income (Billions of 2006 $)
  income added $2,730 million
    real terms.                                                                        8.0                                                                                                  8,046
                                                                                       7.0
                                                                                       6.0
•   The annualized growth rate was
    1.2%.                                                                              5.0
                                                                                       4.0
                                                                                       3.0
                                                                                       2.0
                                                                                       1.0                                                                                            -
                                                                                       0.0
                                                                                         70

                                                                                                73

                                                                                                        76

                                                                                                               79

                                                                                                                       82

                                                                                                                              85

                                                                                                                                       88

                                                                                                                                               91

                                                                                                                                                      94

                                                                                                                                                              97

                                                                                                                                                                      00

                                                                                                                                                                             03

                                                                                                                                                                                    06
                                                                                       19

                                                                                              19

                                                                                                      19

                                                                                                             19

                                                                                                                     19

                                                                                                                            19

                                                                                                                                     19

                                                                                                                                             19

                                                                                                                                                    19

                                                                                                                                                            19

                                                                                                                                                                    20

                                                                                                                                                                           20

                                                                                                                                                                                  20
Importance of Proprietors
                                                                                       5.0
                                                         Income (Billions of 2006 $)




•   In the last 36 years, wage and
    salary disbursements grew at an
                                                                                       4.5                                                                                                  4,526
                                                                                       4.0
    annual rate of 0.6%, outpacing                                                     3.5
    proprietors' income which was                                                      3.0
    roughly unchanged.                                                                 2.5
                                                                                       2.0
                                                                                       1.5
                                                                                       1.0
                                                                                       0.5                                                                                                  434
                                                                                       0.0
                                                                                         70

                                                                                                73

                                                                                                        76

                                                                                                                79

                                                                                                                       82

                                                                                                                               85

                                                                                                                                       88

                                                                                                                                               91

                                                                                                                                                      94

                                                                                                                                                              97

                                                                                                                                                                      00

                                                                                                                                                                             03

                                                                                                                                                                                    06
                                                                                       19

                                                                                              19

                                                                                                      19

                                                                                                              19

                                                                                                                     19

                                                                                                                             19

                                                                                                                                     19

                                                                                                                                             19

                                                                                                                                                    19

                                                                                                                                                            19

                                                                                                                                                                    20

                                                                                                                                                                           20

                                                                                                                                                                                  20
                                                                                                        Wage and salary disbursements                        Proprietors' income




Wages and Salaries vs. Proprietors
                                                                                                         1970                         1995                          2006             New        % of
                                                                                                         % of                         % of                          % of          Income        New
All income in millions of 2006 dollars                                                         1970     Labor                1995    Labor             2006        Labor            70-06    Income


Labor Sources                                                                                 4,167     100%                4,972     100%            5,156        100%             989      100.0%
 Wage and salary disbursements                                                                3,632      87%                4,300     86%             4,526         88%             894       90.4%
 Proprietors' income                                                                            485      12%                 553      11%                  434       8%              (51)           NA
    Nonfarm proprietors' income                                                                 456      11%                 548      11%                  432       8%              (24)           NA
    Farm proprietors' income                                                                     29          1%                5       0%                   2        0%              (27)           NA




Wage and salary is monetary remuneration of employees, including employee contributions to certain deferred compensation programs,
such as 401(K) plans.
Proprietors' income includes income from sole proprietorships, partnerships and tax-exempt cooperatives. A sole proprietorship is an
unincorporated business owned by a person. A partnership is an unincorporated business association of two or more partners. A tax-
exempt cooperative is a nonprofit business organization that is collectively owned by its members.

Source: BEA REIS 2006 Table CA05N and CA30




Page 8                                                                                                                              Demographic, Employment and Income Trends
Erie County, Pennsylvania                                                                                                         Proprietors
Definitions:
“Proprietors” refers to employment and income from sole proprietorships, partnerships, and tax-exempt cooperatives.
“Wage and salary” refers to employees; people who work for someone else.

Are proprietors an important indicator of economic health?
Growth of proprietor employment and income can be a healthy sign that opportunities for entrepreneurship exist. Another way to gauge
the health of small business growth is to look at changes in businesses by type and size of establishment (pages 16-18).
Growth of proprietors can also mean that a rising number of people in the community want to (or need to) have side jobs in addition to
their wage and salary jobs. When this is the case, earnings from second jobs can pull down average wages. To see if this is a sign of
stress, look for other potential stress indictors in this profile: unemployment rates over time and changes in earnings per job.

Proprietors' Share of Total (Income vs. Employment)
                                                                     18%
 •   In 2006, proprietors' share of total
     employment (16%) was higher                                     16%                                                                            16%

     than proprietors' share of total                                14%
     income (5%) .
                                                Share of Total




                                                                     12%

 •   From 1970 to 2006, proprietors'
     income share of total fell by
                                                                     10%
                                                                      8%
     40.9%, while proprietors'
     employment share of total grew                                   6%                                                                            5%
     by 28.6%.                                                        4%
                                                                      2%
                                                                      0%
                                                                        70

                                                                        73

                                                                        76

                                                                        79

                                                                        82

                                                                        85

                                                                        88

                                                                        91

                                                                        94

                                                                        97

                                                                        00

                                                                        03

                                                                        06
                                                                      19

                                                                      19

                                                                      19

                                                                      19

                                                                      19

                                                                      19

                                                                      19

                                                                      19

                                                                      19

                                                                      19

                                                                      20

                                                                      20

                                                                      20
How are Proprietors Doing?
                                                                                                   Employment         Income
 •   From 1970 to 2006, average
     wage and salary disbursements
                                                                     40.0
     fell at an annualized rate of 0.2%
     (adjusted for inflation), declining                             35.0
     slower than average nonfarm                                                                                                                    32,582
                                               Thousands of 2006 $




     proprietors' income which fell by                               30.0
     2.0%.
                                                                     25.0

 •   In 2006, average wage and
     salary disbursements were
                                                                     20.0
                                                                                                                                                    17,059
     $32,582 (adjusted for inflation),                               15.0
     more than average nonfarm
                                                                     10.0
     proprietors' income ($17,059).
                                                                      5.0
 •   In 1970, it was the other way
     around. Average nonfarm
                                                                      0.0
     proprietors' income was $35,639
                                                                       70

                                                                             73

                                                                                   76

                                                                                         79

                                                                                               82

                                                                                                     85

                                                                                                           88

                                                                                                                 91

                                                                                                                       94

                                                                                                                             97

                                                                                                                                   00

                                                                                                                                         03

                                                                                                                                               06
                                                                      19

                                                                            19

                                                                                  19

                                                                                        19

                                                                                              19

                                                                                                    19

                                                                                                          19

                                                                                                                19

                                                                                                                      19

                                                                                                                            19

                                                                                                                                  20

                                                                                                                                        20

                                                                                                                                              20




     (adjusted for inflation), more than
     average wage and salary
     disbursements ($35,384).
                                                                                        Average wage and salary disbursements

 •   If these shares vary widely, it
     suggests that proprietors and
                                                                                        Average nonfarm proprietors' income

     wage earners have different
     earnings.
Source: BEA REIS 2006 Table CA30




Demographic, Employment and Income Trends                                                                                                                 Page 9
Erie County, Pennsylvania                                                                                                Non-labor Income
The term "Non-Labor Income" is also referred to by some economists as "Non-Earnings Income". It consists of:

•   Dividends, Interest and Rent (collectively often referred to as money earned from investments).

•   Transfer Payments (payments from governments to individuals such as Medicare, Social Security, unemployment compensation,
    disability insurance payments and welfare). See the next page for a breakout of transfer payments.


                                                                                             Non-labor Income Share of Total Income
                                                                        40%

                                                                                                                                                          36%
•   In the last 36 years, non-
    labor sources grew at an
                                                                        35%

    annual rate of 2.6%,
                                                                        30%
    outpacing labor sources
                                              Percent of Total Income




    which grew at a 0.6% rate.
                                                                        25%


•   35.9% of total personal
    income in 2006 was from
                                                                        20%

    non-labor sources.
                                                                        15%


                                                                        10%
•   63.8% of new income
    from 1970 to 2006 was
    from non-labor sources.                                             5%


                                                                        0%
                                                                          70

                                                                          73

                                                                          76

                                                                          79

                                                                          82

                                                                          85

                                                                          88

                                                                          91

                                                                          94

                                                                          97

                                                                          00

                                                                          03

                                                                          06
                                                                        19

                                                                        19

                                                                        19

                                                                        19

                                                                        19

                                                                        19

                                                                        19

                                                                        19

                                                                        19

                                                                        19

                                                                        20

                                                                        20

                                                                        20
                                         Non-labor income under estimates retirement income because it does not include pensions (401Ks).


Labor vs. Non-Labor
                                                                          1970                  1995              2006      New        % of     % Chg           % Chg

                                                                              % of              % of              % of    Income       New    Ann. Rate    Ann. Rate
All income in millions of 2006
dollars                                      1970                         Total       1995      Total     2006   Total      70-06   Income        70-06         95-06
Total Personal Income                       5,316                         100%       7,585     100%     8,046    100%      2,730    100.0%        1.2%           0.5%
 Labor Sources                              4,167                             78%    4,972      66%     5,156     64%       989       36.2%       0.6%           0.3%
 Non-Labor Sources                          1,149                             22%    2,613      34%     2,889     36%      1,740      63.8%       2.6%           0.9%
    Dividends, interest, and rent            630                              12%    1,277      17%     1,122     14%       492       18.0%       1.6%          -1.2%
    Personal current transfer receipts       519                              10%    1,336      18%     1,767     22%      1,249      45.7%       3.5%           2.6%


Percentages do not add to 100 because of adjustments made by BEA, such as residence, social security, and others.




Source: BEA REIS 2006 Table CA30



Page 10                                                                                                     Demographic, Employment and Income Trends
Erie County, Pennsylvania                                                                                              Transfer Payments

Components of Transfer Payments
                                                                                                                                New   % of
                                                                                       % of                    % of         Payments  New
                                                                                       Total                   Total          1970 to Pay-            Change in Share of
All figures in millions of 2006 dollars                                           1970   TP               2006   TP             2006 ments            Total (1970 - 2006)
Total transfer payments                                                          519.0                 1,767.5               1,248.5

Government payments to individuals                                               464.4     89%         1,703.7       96%     1,239.3        99.3%
    Retirement & disab. insurance benefit payments                               255.3     49%          649.9        37%       394.6        31.6%
    Medical payments                                                              62.6     12%          775.7        44%       713.1        57.1%
    Income maintenance benefit payments ("welfare")                               73.3     14%          178.5        10%       105.2         8.4%
    Unemployment insurance benefit payments                                       21.7      4%           48.0        3%            26.4      2.1%
    Veterans benefit payments                                                     49.5     10%           31.7        2%            (17.8)      NA
    Federal educ. & trng. asst. pay. (excl. vets)                                  2.0    0.4%           19.3    1.1%              17.3      1.4%
    Other payments to individuals                                                  0.1    0.0%             0.5   0.0%                0.4     0.0%
Payments to nonprofit institutions *                                              40.1      8%           50.2        3%            10.2      0.8%
Business payments to individuals                                                  14.5      3%           13.5        1%             (1.0)      NA
                                                                                                                                                     -50%    0%         50%
Age-related (Retirement, Disability & Medicare)                                  266.0     51%         1,031.2       58%       765.2        61.3%




Trends in Non-Labor Income by Type
• The largestIncome are from
  Non-Labor
              components of
                                                                                                Trends in Non Labor Income
    Dividends, Interest & Rent                                 1,600.0
    (i.e., money earned from past
                                                               1,400.0
    investments).
                                                               1,200.0
                                          Millions of 2006 $




                                                                                                                                                                  1,122
                                                                                                                                                                  1,031
                                                               1,000.0
•   In 2006 welfare represented
    10.1% of transfer payments,                                 800.0
    and 2.2% of total personal
    income. This is down from                                   600.0
    1970 and down slightly from                                 400.0
    1980.
                                                                200.0                                                                                             179

                                                                   0.0
                                                                     70

                                                                            73

                                                                                   76

                                                                                           79

                                                                                                  82

                                                                                                         85

                                                                                                                88

                                                                                                                       91

                                                                                                                              94

                                                                                                                                      97

                                                                                                                                              00

                                                                                                                                                     03

                                                                                                                                                            06




Components of Transfer
                                                                   19

                                                                          19

                                                                                 19

                                                                                         19

                                                                                                19

                                                                                                       19

                                                                                                              19

                                                                                                                     19

                                                                                                                            19

                                                                                                                                    19

                                                                                                                                            20

                                                                                                                                                   20

                                                                                                                                                          20




Payments                                                                                        Dividends, Interest & Rent
                                                                                                Age-related (Retirement, Disability & Medicare)

•   In 2006, 58% of Transfer
    Payments were from age-
                                                                                                Income Maintenance (Welfare)

    related sources (retirement,
    disability, insurance
    payments, and Medicare),
    while 10.1% was from
    welfare.


Source: BEA REIS 2006 Table CA35




Demographic, Employment and Income Trends                                                                                                                         Page 11
Erie County Socioeconomic Profile
Erie County Socioeconomic Profile
Erie County Socioeconomic Profile
Erie County Socioeconomic Profile
Erie County Socioeconomic Profile
Erie County Socioeconomic Profile
Erie County Socioeconomic Profile
Erie County Socioeconomic Profile
Erie County Socioeconomic Profile
Erie County Socioeconomic Profile
Erie County Socioeconomic Profile
Erie County Socioeconomic Profile
Erie County Socioeconomic Profile
Erie County Socioeconomic Profile
Erie County Socioeconomic Profile
Erie County Socioeconomic Profile
Erie County Socioeconomic Profile
Erie County Socioeconomic Profile
Erie County Socioeconomic Profile
Erie County Socioeconomic Profile
Erie County Socioeconomic Profile
Erie County Socioeconomic Profile
Erie County Socioeconomic Profile
Erie County Socioeconomic Profile
Erie County Socioeconomic Profile
Erie County Socioeconomic Profile

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Erie County Socioeconomic Profile

  • 1. www.headwaterseconomics.org A SocioEconomic Profile Erie County, Pennsylvania Produced by the Economic Profile System (EPS) February 14, 2009
  • 2. Erie County, Pennsylvania About EPS About The Economic Profile System (EPS) This profile was produced using the 2008 version of the Economic Profile System (EPS), last updated in February 2009. EPS is designed to allow users to produce detailed socioeconomic profiles automatically and efficiently at a variety of geographic scales using the spreadsheet program Microsoft Excel. Profiles contain tables and figures that illustrate long-term trends in population; employment and personal income by industry; average earnings; business development; retirement and other non-labor income; commuting patterns; agriculture; and earnings by industry. Databases used for EPS profiles are from: Bureau of the Census including County Business Patterns; Bureau of Labor Statistics; and the Regional Economic Information System (REIS) of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. EPS was developed in partnership with the Bureau of Land Management by Ray Rasker, Jeff van den Noort, Ben Alexander and Patty Gude. EPS and Acrobat files (.pdf) of completed profiles for the West are available for free download at www.headwaterseconomics.org. For technical questions about EPS, contact Jeff van den Noort at jeff@headwaterseconomics.org. www.headwaterseconomics.org Headwaters Economics is a high-tech nonprofit organization that offers a unique blend of research skills and on-the-ground experience based on over 20 years of work with communities, landowners, public land managers and elected officials. Our mission is to improve community development and land management decisions in the West. www.blm.gov The Bureau of Land Management (BLM), an agency within the U.S. Department of the Interior, administers 262 million surface acres of America's public lands, located primarily in 12 Western States. The BLM sustains the health, diversity, and productivity of the public lands for the use and enjoyment of present and future generations.
  • 3. Erie County, Pennsylvania Table of Contents About the Economic Profile System Table of Contents Read This First Demographics, Employment and Income Demographics, Employment and Income 1 Population Trends 2 Population 3 Age and Gender 4 Income Distribution & Housing 5 Employment 6 Employment 7 Personal Income 8 Proprietors 9 Non-labor Income 10 Transfer Payments 11 Personal Income 12 Government Employment 13 Earnings Per Job 14 Per Capita Income 15 Firms by Industry 16 Firms by Industry in 2001 (NAICS) 17 Firms by Size 18 Unemployment Trends 19 Commuting 20 Agriculture (Business Income) 21 Relative Performance Comparisons Relative Performance Comparisons 22 Specialization 23 Stability 24 Performance Comparisons 25 Employment and Personal Income by Industry Employment and Income by Industry 26 Read This First 27 Employment (SIC) 28 Employment (NAICS) 29 Personal Income (SIC) 30 Personal Income (NAICS) 31 Wages and Employment 32 Data Sources Data Sources Methods Methods Glossary Glossary Table of Contents
  • 4. Erie County, Pennsylvania Read This First There are two related systems for producing socioeconomic profiles: this one, the Economic Profile System (EPS) and the Economic Profile System Community (EPSC). For best results, use both profile systems. Below is a table highlighting how the two systems complement each other. EPS EPSC Geographic level of detail Nation Nation, Region, Division, States, Counties, Region (metro, non-metro, total) County Subdivisions, Places (Towns), Indian Reservations, Congressional Districts State (metro, non-metro, total) County Databases used Bureau of the Census (Census) Bureau of the Census, Decennial Census of County Business Patterns (CBP) Population and Housing, 1990, 2000. (1990 to 2000 comparisons at the county level only) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Regional Economic Information System (REIS) Time series used Continuous data from 1970 to the most recent 2000. At the county level only 1990 to 2000 data available. comparisons can be made to show changes in age and household income distribution. Advantages Long-term trend analysis including trends in Age distribution, race, housing costs, housing employment and personal income by sector, the affordability, education rates, poverty. number of businesses establishments by type and size, and non-labor sources of income such as retirement and age-related income. Wages by Industry. Finer geographic detail. Counties are compared to states and nation. Key indicators of performance are benchmarked against the US medians. Disadvantages For some counties employment and personal Census data is never suppressed, but it is less income data may be suppressed for some useful than REIS data used in EPS to see long- industries and for some years. EPS includes a term trends by industry; it is only available only system for estimating these data gaps. for 2000 with limited comparisons to 1990. Important notes: 1) Total employment figures from the Regional Economic Information System (used in most of EPS) and the other sources can differ for the following reasons: - Census employment figures are reported by place of residence, while BEA REIS and the other sources are by place of work. - BEA REIS counts all jobs, regardless of whether part-time or whether a person has several jobs. For example, if a person has three part-time jobs, they count it as three jobs. - In some areas seasonality may play a role: the census is taken in the spring, a shoulder season for many “resort” areas, while BEA REIS data is an annual average. - BEA REIS includes sole proprietors and government employment while County Business Patterns and BLS Wages do not. - Earnings from BEA REIS on pages 14 and 25 include the value of benefits while the wages on page 32 from the BLS do not. 2) Tables and charts may be copied from Excel into any other program, like Word or PowerPoint: highlight the selection, choose copy from the edit menu, then open Word or PowerPoint and insert by choosing "Paste Special" in the Edit Menu. We recommend that you paste charts as a picture. 3) This profile also shows business cycles, represented as vertical bars on selected charts. 4) EPS is updated every year with the latest figures. 5) All income figures in this profile (except for the graph on the top of page 5) are adjusted for inflation reported in 2006 dollars. Introduction
  • 5. Erie County, Pennsylvania Demographics, Employment and Income The following pages (2-25) contain long-term trends in demographics, employment and income. No disclosure restrictions occur in this section. In this section you will learn about: 1. Changes in population, age distribution, household income distribution and housing affordability. 2. Comparisons of the county to the state and the nation. 3. Employment and income by type: proprietors versus wage and salary. 4. Personal income by type: labor versus non-labor income. 5. The role of transfer payments. 6. How well does this area recover from recessions? 7. Trends in government employment. 8. Earnings per job versus per capita income. 9. Growth in firms by size and industry type. 10. Unemployment rates. 11. Cross-county flow of dollars via commuting. 12. Trends in agricultural businesses. Highlights - In Erie County, Pennsylvania: These highlights are based on how this area compares to the distribution of all of the counties in the United States. See the methodology section at the end for more information. • Population Growth (Annualized rate, 1970-2006) was somewhat slow. • Employment Growth (Annualized rate, 1970-2006) was somewhat slow. • Personal Income Growth (Adjusted for Inflation, Annualized rate, 1970-2006) was somewhat slow. • Non-labor Income Share of Total in 2006 was roughly average. • Median Age* was somewhat young. • Per Capita Income (2006) was roughly average. • Average Earnings Per Job (2006) was somewhat high. • Education Rate* (% of population 25 and over who have a college degree) was somewhat high. • Education Rate* (% of population 25 and over who have less than a high school diploma) was somewhat low. • Employment Specialization* was roughly average. • Rich-Poor Ratio* (for each household that made over $100K, how many households made less than $30K) was roughly average. Housing Affordability in 2000 (100 or above means that the median family can afford the median house)* was roughly average • affordable. • Government share of Total employment was somewhat low. • Unemployment Rate in 2007** was roughly average. * from 2000 US Census ** from Bureau of Labor Statistics Demographic, Employment and Income Trends Page 1
  • 6. Erie County, Pennsylvania Population Trends Population Population Trends 285.0 280.0 279,686 • From 1970 to 2006 Thousands of People population grew by 15,371 people, a 6% 275.0 increase in population. 270.0 265.0 • At an annual rate, this 260.0 represents an increase of 0.2%. 255.0 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 The vertical shaded bars on the figure below represent the last five recession periods: November 1973 to March 1975; January 1980 to July 1980; July 1981 to November 1982; July 1990 to March 1991; March 2001 to November 2001. More information about recessions is available on the next page. Population Growth Compared to the State and the Nation Population Comparison Population Comparison • Over the last 36 years population growth in Erie 160 160 160 145 County, Pennsylvania 140 147 145 140 140 Population (Index 1970=100) has been the same as Population (Index 1970=100) Population (Index 1970=100) Pennsylvania and 120 slower than the nation. 120 120 106 105 100 106 105 106 105 100 100 8080 • Population growth is not 80 generally impacted by 6060 national recessions. 60 4040 40 2020 20 - - • Data is indexed by - - - dividing by the value in - 721 7 0 19 972 19 774 19 1 976 19 978 19 780 19 19982 19 984 19 986 19 19 8 0 19 992 19 19 94 19 6 78 20 00 20 2 04 066 0 761 3 6 821 9 841 82 85 901 88 1 9619 4 0220 0 3 19 1 97 98 99 9 99 0 20 0 1970 times 100. A 781 7 9 20 0 199 199 9 9419 9819 0020 0420 0620 9 9 19 19 701 741 801 861 881 921 value of 100 indicates 19 19 19 20 20 20 that it has not changed Recession Bars Recession Bars Erie County, Pennsylvania Erie County, Pennsylvania National Recessions Erie County, Pennsylvania since 1970. Pennsylvania Pennsylvania United States States United Pennsylvania United States Source: BEA REIS 2006 Table CA30 Page 2 Demographic, Employment and Income Trends
  • 7. Erie County, Pennsylvania Population How well do we recover from recessions? An important indicator of economic performance is the ability to recover quickly from recessions. A recession is defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research as “a significant decline in activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, visible in industrial production, employment, real income, and wholesale-retail sales.” The graph below shows how well we have recovered from the last five recessions. The recovery periods are from the end of one recession (the trough) to the beginning of the next recession (the peak). This type of graph is repeated throughout the profile to show how the area recovers from recessions compared to the state and the nation. See www.nber.org/cycles.html for more information about business cycles. Population Growth During Recent Recoveries - Annualized % Change from Trough to Following Peak • In the latest recovery (2001 to 2006), population growth in 1.4% 1.2% the United States (up 0.9%) 1.2% 1.1% outpaced Pennsylvania and 1.0% Erie County, Pennsylvania. 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% Annual % Change 0.8% • Similarly, in the last recovery (1991 to 2001), the United 0.6% States (up 1.2%) grew the fastest. 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% • In the recovery from 1982 to 1990, the United States (up 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% 0.9%) grew the fastest. -0.2% -0.1% -0.2% -0.4% 1975 to 1980 1980 to 1981 1982 to 1990 1991 to 2001 2001 to 2006 Erie County, Pennsylvania - Population Pennsylvania - Population United States - Population Source: BEA REIS 2006 Table CA30 Demographic, Employment and Income Trends Page 3
  • 8. Erie County, Pennsylvania Age and Gender (From EPSC) • The population has gotten older since Population by Age and Sex 1990. The median age Density in 2000 is 36.2 years, 40 - 54 (Baby Median (Pop. up from 32.9 years in Total Under 20 years Boom in 2000) 65 years and over Age per sq. 1990. Number Number Share NumberShare Number Share mi.) Total Population 2000 280,843 80,092 29% 60,412 22% 40,256 14% 36.2 350.2 • The largest age 1990 275,572 82,322 30% 44,422 16% 38,025 14% 32.9 343.6 category is 15 to 19 10 Yr. Change 5,271 (2,230) -1% 15,990 5% 2,231 1% 3.3 6.6 years old (22,404 10 Yr. % Change 2% -3% 36% 6% 10% 2% people or 8.0% of the total). 2000 Sex Breakout Male 136,967 41,067 30% 30,054 22% 16,109 12% 34.6 • Total Population in Female 143,876 39,025 27% 30,358 21% 24,147 17% 37.7 2000 was 280,843 Male/Female Split 49% / 51% 51% / 49% 50% / 50% 40% / 60% people, up 2% from 2000 Table SF1 - P12 & 1990 SF1 Table P05 & P12 275,572 in 1990. • The age group that has In the graphs below, changes in population by age are shown two ways. The "Change in Population" graph grown the fastest, as a illustrates how each age bracket has changed in the last 10 years. The "Change in Share" graph illustrates share of total, is 45 to how each category has changed as a share of total. Note that an age bracket can have an increase in 49 years , up 6,552 population while declining as a share of total. The "Change in Share" graph usually demonstrates how the people. Their share of baby boom has caused a demographic shift in the population (growth in the 40-60 age brackets). total rose by 2.2% Note: In aggregated profiles, medians are interpolated. 2000 Breakout Change in Population Change in Share of Total (90-2000) (90-2000) 85 years and over 3,539 1,353 1,572 80 to 84 years 3,985 2,248 1,853 75 to 79 years 5,474 3,689 1,872 70 to 74 years 5,854 4,412 35 65 and 69 years 5,295 4,407 3,031 60 and 64 years 5,624 5,078 2,300 55 to 59 years 6,951 6,503 1,968 50 to 54 years 8,608 8,577 5,307 45 to 49 years 10,583 10,420 6,552 40 to 44 years 11,167 11,057 4,131 35 to 39 years 10,286 9,997 1,315 30 to 34 years 8,976 9,171 4,202 25 to 29 years 8,419 8,659 3,164 20 to 24 years 10,090 10,329 1,707 15 to 19 years 11,020 11,384 103 10 to 14 years 9,881 10,370 802 5 to 9 years 9,747 10,250 396 Under 5 years 8,377 9,063 2,533 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% Thousands of People Thousands of People Thousands of People Male Female Change 1990-2000 Change in Share Source: Census 2000 and Census 1990 Page 4 Demographic, Employment and Income Trends
  • 9. Erie County, Pennsylvania Income Distribution & Housing (From EPSC) Income Distribution - Household Income Distribution (Not adjusted for inflation) Households Less than $10,000 16,948 10,749 • In 1999, for every household that made over $10,000 to $14,999 10,468 8,442 $100K, there were 6.4 $15,000 to $19,999 10,019 7,926 households that made $20,000 to $24,999 9,936 under $30K. 10 years 8,381 earlier, for every household $25,000 to $29,999 9,408 8,077 that made over $100K, 9,120 there were 24.7 households $30,000 to $34,999 7,253 that made under $30K. $35,000 to $39,999 7,575 7,014 $40,000 to $44,999 6,382 6,873 5,079 • Please note that the income distribution is not $45,000 to $49,999 5,818 $50,000 to $59,999 6,814 adjusted for inflation so 9,768 $60,000 to $74,999 5,006 some of the changes are 10,661 due to inflation. $75,000 to $99,999 2,602 1989 8,665 $100,000 to $124,999 914 1999 3,252 $125,000 to $149,999 443 1,308 $150,000 or more 938 2,301 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 Thousands of Households Housing Affordability - Owner Occupied • The housing affordability Owner Occupied Housing Affordability 1990 2000 index is 186, which suggests that the median Specified owner-occ. housing units: Median value (2000 $'s) $ 70,619 $ 85,300 family can afford the median house. * % of median income necessary to buy the median house 14% 13% Income required to qualify for the median house $ 23,818 $ 24,103 • Housing has become more affordable in the last Housing Affordability Index: (100 or above means that the median family can afford the median house.)* 178 186 decade, from 178 in 1990 Universe: Specified owner-occupied housing units Census SF3 - H76 to 186 in 2000. Income in: 1989 1999 Per capita income $ 17,932 Median household income (Adj. for Inflation in 2000 $) $ 35,021 $ 36,627 Median family income (Adj.for Inflation in 2000 $) $ 42,352 $ 44,829 Universe: Total population, Households, Families Census SF3 - P82,P53,P77 * Note: The housing affordability figures assume a 20% down payment and that no more than 25% of a family's income goes to paying the mortgage. It is based on an interest rate of 10.01% in 1990 and 8.03% in 2000. Use this statistic as a comparative, rather than absolute, measure. Source: Census 2000 and Census 1990 Demographic, Employment and Income Trends Page 5
  • 10. Erie County, Pennsylvania Employment Long term trend 180.0 165,688 160.0 • From 1970 to 2006, 48,278 new 140.0 Thousands of Jobs jobs were created. 120.0 100.0 80.0 • From 1970 to 2006, the majority of job growth, 75% of new jobs, was in 60.0 wage and salary employment 40.0 (people who work for someone else). 20.0 - 0.0 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 • Wage and salary employment 160.0 (people who work for someone 140.0 138,901 else) contributed 75% of new Thousands of Jobs employment from 1970 to 2006, 120.0 and 62% of new employment since 100.0 1995. 80.0 60.0 40.0 • In 1970, proprietors represented 20.0 26,787 12.6% of total employment; by 0.0 2006, they represented 16.2%. 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 Wage and salary jobs Number of proprietors Wages and Salaries vs. Proprietors Changes from 1970 to 2006 % of New % of New New Employm New % of % of Employme Employm ent (95- Employ 1970 Total 1995 2006 Total nt (70-06) ent 06) ment Total full-time and part-time employment 117,410 154,222 165,688 48,278 11,466 100.0% Wage and salary jobs 102,644 87.4% 131,832 138,901 83.8% 36,257 75.1% 7,069 61.7% Number of proprietors 14,766 12.6% 22,390 26,787 16.2% 12,021 24.9% 4,397 38.3% Number of nonfarm proprietors 5/ 12,793 10.9% 20,850 25,299 15.3% 12,506 25.9% 4,449 38.8% Number of farm proprietors 1,973 1.7% 1,540 1,488 0.9% -485 NA -52 NA Proprietors include sole proprietorships, partnerships, and tax-exempt cooperatives. A sole proprietorship is an unincorporated business owned by a person. A partnership is an unincorporated business association of two or more partners. A tax-exempt cooperative is a nonprofit business organization that is collectively owned by its members. Wage and salary employment refers to employees. Source: BEA REIS 2006 Table CA30 Page 6 Demographic, Employment and Income Trends
  • 11. Erie County, Pennsylvania Employment How well do we recover from recessions? • In the latest recovery (2001 to 2006), Employment During Recent Recoveries - Annualized % Change from Trough to Following Peak employment growth in the 4.0% United States (up 1.3%) 2.9% has outpaced 3.0% 2.5% Pennsylvania and Erie 1.8% 1.9% County, Pennsylvania. 2.0% 1.6% Annual % Change 1.2% 1.3% 1.1% • Similarly, in the last 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% recovery (1991 to 2001), the United States (up 0.0% 1.9%) grew the fastest. -1.0% -0.6% • In the recovery from 1982 -2.0% -2.1% to 1990, the United States (up 2.5%) grew the -3.0% fastest. Erie County, Pennsylvania - Employment1982 to 1990 1991 to 2001 2001 to 2006 1975 to 1980 1980 to 1981 Pennsylvania - Employment United States - Employment Job Growth Compared to the State and the Nation • Over the last 36 years population growth in Erie Jobs Compared to the State and the Nation 250 County, Pennsylvania has been faster than Pennsylvania and slower 200 195 than the nation. Jobs (Index 1970=100) • Some areas can experience employment 150 141 140 gains even during recessions. If so, check to see how much is due to 100 migration and population changes. 50 - 0 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 National Recessions Erie County, Pennsylvania Pennsylvania United States Source: BEA REIS 2006 Table CA30 Demographic, Employment and Income Trends Page 7
  • 12. Erie County, Pennsylvania Personal Income Long term trend Total Personal Income • From 1970 to 2006, personalin 9.0 Income (Billions of 2006 $) income added $2,730 million real terms. 8.0 8,046 7.0 6.0 • The annualized growth rate was 1.2%. 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 - 0.0 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 Importance of Proprietors 5.0 Income (Billions of 2006 $) • In the last 36 years, wage and salary disbursements grew at an 4.5 4,526 4.0 annual rate of 0.6%, outpacing 3.5 proprietors' income which was 3.0 roughly unchanged. 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 434 0.0 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 Wage and salary disbursements Proprietors' income Wages and Salaries vs. Proprietors 1970 1995 2006 New % of % of % of % of Income New All income in millions of 2006 dollars 1970 Labor 1995 Labor 2006 Labor 70-06 Income Labor Sources 4,167 100% 4,972 100% 5,156 100% 989 100.0% Wage and salary disbursements 3,632 87% 4,300 86% 4,526 88% 894 90.4% Proprietors' income 485 12% 553 11% 434 8% (51) NA Nonfarm proprietors' income 456 11% 548 11% 432 8% (24) NA Farm proprietors' income 29 1% 5 0% 2 0% (27) NA Wage and salary is monetary remuneration of employees, including employee contributions to certain deferred compensation programs, such as 401(K) plans. Proprietors' income includes income from sole proprietorships, partnerships and tax-exempt cooperatives. A sole proprietorship is an unincorporated business owned by a person. A partnership is an unincorporated business association of two or more partners. A tax- exempt cooperative is a nonprofit business organization that is collectively owned by its members. Source: BEA REIS 2006 Table CA05N and CA30 Page 8 Demographic, Employment and Income Trends
  • 13. Erie County, Pennsylvania Proprietors Definitions: “Proprietors” refers to employment and income from sole proprietorships, partnerships, and tax-exempt cooperatives. “Wage and salary” refers to employees; people who work for someone else. Are proprietors an important indicator of economic health? Growth of proprietor employment and income can be a healthy sign that opportunities for entrepreneurship exist. Another way to gauge the health of small business growth is to look at changes in businesses by type and size of establishment (pages 16-18). Growth of proprietors can also mean that a rising number of people in the community want to (or need to) have side jobs in addition to their wage and salary jobs. When this is the case, earnings from second jobs can pull down average wages. To see if this is a sign of stress, look for other potential stress indictors in this profile: unemployment rates over time and changes in earnings per job. Proprietors' Share of Total (Income vs. Employment) 18% • In 2006, proprietors' share of total employment (16%) was higher 16% 16% than proprietors' share of total 14% income (5%) . Share of Total 12% • From 1970 to 2006, proprietors' income share of total fell by 10% 8% 40.9%, while proprietors' employment share of total grew 6% 5% by 28.6%. 4% 2% 0% 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 How are Proprietors Doing? Employment Income • From 1970 to 2006, average wage and salary disbursements 40.0 fell at an annualized rate of 0.2% (adjusted for inflation), declining 35.0 slower than average nonfarm 32,582 Thousands of 2006 $ proprietors' income which fell by 30.0 2.0%. 25.0 • In 2006, average wage and salary disbursements were 20.0 17,059 $32,582 (adjusted for inflation), 15.0 more than average nonfarm 10.0 proprietors' income ($17,059). 5.0 • In 1970, it was the other way around. Average nonfarm 0.0 proprietors' income was $35,639 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 (adjusted for inflation), more than average wage and salary disbursements ($35,384). Average wage and salary disbursements • If these shares vary widely, it suggests that proprietors and Average nonfarm proprietors' income wage earners have different earnings. Source: BEA REIS 2006 Table CA30 Demographic, Employment and Income Trends Page 9
  • 14. Erie County, Pennsylvania Non-labor Income The term "Non-Labor Income" is also referred to by some economists as "Non-Earnings Income". It consists of: • Dividends, Interest and Rent (collectively often referred to as money earned from investments). • Transfer Payments (payments from governments to individuals such as Medicare, Social Security, unemployment compensation, disability insurance payments and welfare). See the next page for a breakout of transfer payments. Non-labor Income Share of Total Income 40% 36% • In the last 36 years, non- labor sources grew at an 35% annual rate of 2.6%, 30% outpacing labor sources Percent of Total Income which grew at a 0.6% rate. 25% • 35.9% of total personal income in 2006 was from 20% non-labor sources. 15% 10% • 63.8% of new income from 1970 to 2006 was from non-labor sources. 5% 0% 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 Non-labor income under estimates retirement income because it does not include pensions (401Ks). Labor vs. Non-Labor 1970 1995 2006 New % of % Chg % Chg % of % of % of Income New Ann. Rate Ann. Rate All income in millions of 2006 dollars 1970 Total 1995 Total 2006 Total 70-06 Income 70-06 95-06 Total Personal Income 5,316 100% 7,585 100% 8,046 100% 2,730 100.0% 1.2% 0.5% Labor Sources 4,167 78% 4,972 66% 5,156 64% 989 36.2% 0.6% 0.3% Non-Labor Sources 1,149 22% 2,613 34% 2,889 36% 1,740 63.8% 2.6% 0.9% Dividends, interest, and rent 630 12% 1,277 17% 1,122 14% 492 18.0% 1.6% -1.2% Personal current transfer receipts 519 10% 1,336 18% 1,767 22% 1,249 45.7% 3.5% 2.6% Percentages do not add to 100 because of adjustments made by BEA, such as residence, social security, and others. Source: BEA REIS 2006 Table CA30 Page 10 Demographic, Employment and Income Trends
  • 15. Erie County, Pennsylvania Transfer Payments Components of Transfer Payments New % of % of % of Payments New Total Total 1970 to Pay- Change in Share of All figures in millions of 2006 dollars 1970 TP 2006 TP 2006 ments Total (1970 - 2006) Total transfer payments 519.0 1,767.5 1,248.5 Government payments to individuals 464.4 89% 1,703.7 96% 1,239.3 99.3% Retirement & disab. insurance benefit payments 255.3 49% 649.9 37% 394.6 31.6% Medical payments 62.6 12% 775.7 44% 713.1 57.1% Income maintenance benefit payments ("welfare") 73.3 14% 178.5 10% 105.2 8.4% Unemployment insurance benefit payments 21.7 4% 48.0 3% 26.4 2.1% Veterans benefit payments 49.5 10% 31.7 2% (17.8) NA Federal educ. & trng. asst. pay. (excl. vets) 2.0 0.4% 19.3 1.1% 17.3 1.4% Other payments to individuals 0.1 0.0% 0.5 0.0% 0.4 0.0% Payments to nonprofit institutions * 40.1 8% 50.2 3% 10.2 0.8% Business payments to individuals 14.5 3% 13.5 1% (1.0) NA -50% 0% 50% Age-related (Retirement, Disability & Medicare) 266.0 51% 1,031.2 58% 765.2 61.3% Trends in Non-Labor Income by Type • The largestIncome are from Non-Labor components of Trends in Non Labor Income Dividends, Interest & Rent 1,600.0 (i.e., money earned from past 1,400.0 investments). 1,200.0 Millions of 2006 $ 1,122 1,031 1,000.0 • In 2006 welfare represented 10.1% of transfer payments, 800.0 and 2.2% of total personal income. This is down from 600.0 1970 and down slightly from 400.0 1980. 200.0 179 0.0 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 Components of Transfer 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 Payments Dividends, Interest & Rent Age-related (Retirement, Disability & Medicare) • In 2006, 58% of Transfer Payments were from age- Income Maintenance (Welfare) related sources (retirement, disability, insurance payments, and Medicare), while 10.1% was from welfare. Source: BEA REIS 2006 Table CA35 Demographic, Employment and Income Trends Page 11