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1 © The Futures Company 2012
DRAFT
Global
Energies
© 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 22013/14
Customer connections exercise
Who Are Your Main Customers?
Why Do They Buy Your Products Or Services?
Why Do Your Customers Buy From You Rather
Than From Your Competitors?
Your Competitors?
 Price
 Value
 Quality
 Other factor
What are consumer trends?
Global
Energies
© 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 42013/14
Trends exist on different levels
Macro
Micro
Typeoftrends MACRO
Social, technological, environmental,
economic, political and organisational
trends that shape the operating
environment
MICRO
Trends in consumer or brand behaviour
within specific categories
Global
Energies
© 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 52013/14
Consumer trends provide an understanding of how
macro trends can link to business trends
Macro
Micro
Typeoftrends
MACRO
Social, technological, environmental,
economic, political and organisational that
shape the operating environment
MICRO
On the ground manifestations of
consumer, citizen or brand behaviour
often* in response to macro trends
pressures
CONSUMER TRENDS
Sustained shifts in consumer attitudes and
behaviours
Global
Energies
© 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 62013/14
Why do organisations use trends?
Trends help you make sense
of change
Trends provide
inspiration for new ideas
and innovation
Global
Energies
© 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 72013/14
What are the benefits of using trends?
Trends help you to
become more:
• Outward looking
• Forward looking
• Consumer focused
Consumer ‘big picture’ trends
Andrew Curry
Global
Energies
© 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 92013/14
Six faces of the global consumer exercise
Positive Why?
What can you do?
Negative
March 2014
The six faces of the global consumer
A presentation to Enterprising Donegal 2014
Global
Energies
© 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 112013/14
Organisat-
ional
environment
Operating
environment
Contextual
environment
Thinking in futures
Six
Faces
of the
Global
Consumer
Face
One:
The
Urban
Consumer
© 2013
+57
%
+78
%
+231
%
+39
%
+6%
-1%
Household income of $10 to
$100 dollars a day PPP
From $7 trillion to $20 trillion? The new middle class
Source:1.OECD(2010)TheEmergingMiddleClassinDevelopingCountries.2.McKinsey(2012)Winningthe$30trillion
decathlon:Goingforgoldinemergingmarkets
Face
Two:
The
Female
Consumer
$5 trillion
Face
Three:
The
Older
Consumer
© 2013
Face
Four:
The
Connected
Consumer
© 2013
• But its arrival is slow and erratic
• It needs reasonable 4G takeup to create markets
• Opportunities for monetisation are still unclear
• Locational services appear to represent a
significant opportunity
• Mobile advertising is overhyped
Face
Five:
The
Aware
Consumer
“In a digital
world, truth
has gone
round the
world before
the
corporate
affairs
department
has got its
boots on.”
The Futures Company: Global MONITOR survey 2012
Brands - with benefits?
Images: {left) www.primark.com; (right) www.wikipedia.org
Face
Six:
The
Activist
Consumer
© 2013
The Futures Company: Global MONITOR survey 2012
28%
of all Global
MONITOR
respondents
feel „a LOT‟ of
anger about
all four of
these issues:
„the Global
Enraged‟
© 2013
Six
Faces
of the
Global
Consumer
Global
Energies
© 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 372013/14
Six faces of the global consumer exercise
Positive Why?
What can you do?
Negative
The Futures Company 2013 © | 38
Consumer attitudes and
behaviours
Vera Kiss
Global
Energies
© 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 392013/14
Innovation and proposition development
Innovation
Proposition
What would you do?
How would you do it?
Why would you do it?
The Futures Company 2013 © | 40
40© 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY
The emergence of more savvy
definitions of value and ownership
that help consumers gain the most
from each shopping decision
Global
Energies
© 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 412013/14
Considered Consumers
Consumers are changing how they
define ownership and measure value,
in order to thrive in the "new normal"
of economic austerity.
© 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 43
Global
Energies
2013/14
Considered Consumers: Drivers and opportunities
Global MacroDynamics:
Key opportunity areas for
businesses and brands
Forces of change in
consumers’ lives
New models of ownership
Giving consumers alternatives to
full ownership as a way of reaping
the benefits of goods and services
The new barter economy
Giving consumers the chance to
use the residual value of things they
already own to access things that
they want
Premium economy
Giving consumers access to
premium options at lower prices
Opportunities:
The continuing softness of the
global economy
The rising middle class in emerging
economies
Increasingly squeezed middle
classes in developed markets
Growth of Internet-enabled devices
The increased socialization of
online commerce
Declining trust in businesses
Global Energy
Global
Energies
© 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 442013/14
Opportunity areas
New models of ownership
Giving consumers alternatives to
full ownership as a way of reaping
the benefits of goods and services
The new barter economy
Giving consumers the chance to
use the residual value of things they
already own to access things that
they want
Premium economy
Giving consumers access to
premium options at lower prices
Mexico: Sampled
ownership
Canada: Recycle clothing
for credit
France: Direct access to
unique products
The Futures Company 2013 © | 45
45© 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY
Finding reassurance in the
authentic, amidst a continuing
explosion of choice
Global
Energies
© 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 462013/14
Seeking the Genuine Article
Consumers everywhere face an explosion
of choice in their lives, driving them to
look for reassurance in what they
perceive as authentic or genuine.
© 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 47
Global
Energies
2013/14
Seeking the Genuine Article: Drivers and
opportunities
Genuine provenance
Offering consumers the reassurance of
a well-made product by leveraging an
authentic story of where it’s made
The bigger, the better
Offering consumers the reassurance of
a well-made product/well-delivered
service by leveraging size and scale
Global Energy
Genuine passion
Offering consumers the reassurance of
an honest and passionate human force
behind a brand
Global MacroDynamics:
Key opportunity areas for
businesses and brands
Forces of change in
consumers’ lives
Opportunities:
Low trust in businesses and
government
Growing awareness of organized
crime and counterfeiting
Growing pressure from NGOs on
businesses
The rising availability of
information on products and
businesses
More and more choices in more
and more categories
Growing perceived risk from
unsafe, unhealthy or otherwise
fake products
Global
Energies
© 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 482013/14
Opportunity areas
Genuine provenance
Offering consumers the reassurance of
a well-made product by leveraging an
authentic story of where it’s made
The bigger, the better
Offering consumers the reassurance of
a well-made product/well-delivered
service by leveraging size and scale
Genuine passion
Offering consumers the reassurance of
an honest and passionate human force
behind a brand
France:Genuine
sourcing
Russia: Deep origins
China: Reliable
international service
The Futures Company 2013 © | 49
49© 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY
Enriching daily life with fun
and fulfilling experiences that
provide an antidote to the
pressures of modern living
Global
Energies
© 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 502013/14
Seeking Experiences
Consumers continue to look for small
thrills and pleasures to escape from the
pressures of everyday life, but there’s
also a resurgence of interest in bigger,
once-in-a-lifetime experiences.
© 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 51
Global
Energies
2013/14
Seeking Experiences: Drivers and opportunities
Everyday play
Encouraging playfulness and frivolity
to make life more fun
Once-in-a-lifetime thrills
Offering people life-changing, eye-
opening experiences that take them
out of the ordinary everyday
Global Energy
Simple pleasures
Small indulgences and modest
experiences to rediscover the
more profound joys of life
Missions with vision
Giving people the opportunity to
engage in big, purpose-driven activities
that reaffirm their connection to others
Global MacroDynamics:
Key opportunity areas for
businesses and brands
Forces of change in
consumers’ lives
Opportunities:
Growing use of new measures of
social progress
The expanding middle class in
emerging markets
Increasingly squeezed middle class
in developed markets
Increasing prominence of online
social networks
More and more choices in more
and more categories
Increased affordability of travel
Global
Energies
© 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 522013/14
Opportunity areas
Everyday play
Encouraging playfulness and frivolity
to make life more fun
Once-in-a-lifetime thrills
Offering people life-changing, eye-
opening experiences that take them
out of the ordinary everyday
Simple pleasures
Small indulgences and modest
experiences to rediscover the
more profound joys of life
Missions with vision
Giving people the opportunity to
engage in big, purpose-driven activities
that reaffirm their connection to others
U.K.: The joy of silence
Spain: Pajama Party for
Vouchers
USA: Travel Roulette
China: Personal life
journeys
The Futures Company 2013 © | 53
53© 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY
Participating in trusted and
active networks that are
reciprocal in nature, and
leveraging them in everyday life
Global
Energies
© 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 542013/14
Networked Lives
As social networks have reached
ubiquity in many markets,
consumers are stepping back and
taking a more mindful, self-aware
approach to the way they participate
in the networks they are embedded
in—and sometimes trapped in.
© 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 55
Global
Energies
2013/14
Networked Lives: Drivers and opportunities
Global Energy
Global MacroDynamics:
Key opportunity areas for
businesses and brands
Forces of change in
consumers’ lives
Opportunities:
Monetizing networkedness
Giving people the opportunity to derive
financial gain or advantage from their
data and networkedness
Networked shopping
Helping consumers tap into their
networks in order to make better-
informed purchases
The fight for privacy
Helping people take control of their
data to keep what should be private,
private
Increasing supply of, and access
to, information
Changing household structures and
family roles
Increasing prominence of online
social networks
The proliferation of smartphones
Growing focus on privacy and the
security of personal data
Increasing distance within
relationships of all kinds
Global
Energies
© 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 562013/14
Opportunity areas
Monetizing networkedness
Giving people the opportunity to derive
financial gain or advantage from their
data and networkedness
Networked shopping
Helping consumers tap into their
networks in order to make better-
informed purchases
The fight for privacy
Helping people take control of their
data to keep what should be private,
private
U.K.: Networked wardrobes
Colombia, Philippines:
Loans based on online
reputation
Global: Safeguarding
personal data
The Futures Company 2013 © | 57
57© 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY
The new ways of exploring,
expressing and experiencing
identity through personal
demographics and beyond
Global
Energies
© 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 582013/14
Dynamic Identities
The more consumers have the opportunity
to experience life beyond their age, gender
and culture, the more they seek the security
of being anchored to a core identity that's
grounded in those demographics.
© 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 59
Global
Energies
2013/14
Dynamic Identities: Drivers and opportunities
Anchoring roots
Providing anchor points based on
tradition, religion or cultural heritage in
fast-changing times
Fusion selves
Helping people incorporate and
integrate aspects of "other" identities
into who they are.
Global Energy
Exploring otherness
Helping people expand their identities
by experiencing life beyond their
gender, age or cultural background.
Global MacroDynamics:
Key opportunity areas for
businesses and brands
Forces of change in
consumers’ lives
Opportunities:
Changing household structures
and family roles
Changing definitions of ageing
Increasing empowerment of women
The increased ease of digital
cultural exchange
The increased affordability of travel
Global
Energies
© 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 602013/14
Opportunity areas
Anchoring roots
Providing anchor points based on
tradition, religion or cultural heritage in
fast-changing times
Fusion selves
Helping people incorporate and
integrate aspects of "other" identities
into who they are.
Exploring otherness
Helping people expand their identities
by experiencing life beyond their
gender, age or cultural background.
Spain: Exploring foreign
traditions
Australia: Traditional male
heritage
China: Fused luxury
61© 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY
The changing aspirations and
actions around managing our
health and wellbeing
Global
Energies
© 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 622013/14
Navigating Wellbeing: Headline story for 2013
There is a growing
gap between how
healthy and well
consumers want to
feel, and what they
can actually achieve
through their daily
actions
© 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 63
Global
Energies
2013/14
Navigating Wellbeing: Drivers and opportunities
Short-term health horizons
Offering consumers a concrete promise
of better health in the short term,
rather than the long term
Microspecific measures
Giving consumers personalized and/or
hyper-specific indicators of health
improvement
Global Energy
Step-by-step to better health
Guiding consumers to the next, easily
manageable step on their wellness
journey
Global MacroDynamics:
Key opportunity areas for
businesses and brands
Forces of change in
consumers’ lives
Opportunities:
Global rise in costly lifestyle
diseases
Increasing use of new measures of
social progress
The rapid growth of the health
and wellness business
The emergence of personalized
approaches to medicine
Increasing supply of, and access
to, health information
Global
Energies
© 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 642013/14
Opportunity areas
Global: Getting fit, one
milestone at a time
UK: Personal vitamin
pouches
Short-term health horizons
Offering consumers a concrete promise
of better health in the short term,
rather than the long term
Microspecific measures
Giving consumers personalized and/or
hyper-specific indicators of health
improvement
Step-by-step to better health
Guiding consumers to the next, easily
manageable step on their wellness
journey
Global: Instant smoking
cessation
Innovation or proposition
ideas
The Futures Company 2013 © | 66
INNOVATION
Are there ways that you
can change the way you
make or sell your products
or services so they appeal
more to customers? Or
offer more value to your
customers? Or are more
convenient for them?
For example:
In the US, Dollar Shave
Club delivers razors
through the post to men in
exchange for a small
monthly fee. So they don’t
have to remember to buy
them when out shopping.
1. WHAT would you do?
2. How would you do it?
3. WHY would you do it?
Exercise: Using ONE Energy, design an innovation or a
change to your proposition
PROPOSITION
Are there ways in which
you can change the way
you position your products
or services (i.e. the way
you talk about them to
customers) so they’ll make
an easier connection to
why they are worth
buying?
For example:
In the UK, the newly
created TSB bank
emphasises its localness,
in contrast to the other
high street banks.
Thank you
Andrew Curry
Director
andrew.curry@thefuturescompany.com
The Futures Company 2013 © | 68
Afternoon: session 1
Global
Energies
© 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 692013/14
Exercise 1: STEP exerciseBusinessOrganisation
External
Environment
Internal
Environment
Structure People
Task
The Futures Company 2013 © | 70
Afternoon: session 2
Global
Energies
© 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 712013/14
Exercise 2: Planning exercise
What does
success look
like
What do we
have to do next
(in 12-14
months)
What do we
have to do now
(in next 12
months)
Where are we
now?

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The Futures Company Enterprise Week 2014

  • 2. 1 © The Futures Company 2012 DRAFT
  • 3. Global Energies © 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 22013/14 Customer connections exercise Who Are Your Main Customers? Why Do They Buy Your Products Or Services? Why Do Your Customers Buy From You Rather Than From Your Competitors? Your Competitors?  Price  Value  Quality  Other factor
  • 5. Global Energies © 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 42013/14 Trends exist on different levels Macro Micro Typeoftrends MACRO Social, technological, environmental, economic, political and organisational trends that shape the operating environment MICRO Trends in consumer or brand behaviour within specific categories
  • 6. Global Energies © 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 52013/14 Consumer trends provide an understanding of how macro trends can link to business trends Macro Micro Typeoftrends MACRO Social, technological, environmental, economic, political and organisational that shape the operating environment MICRO On the ground manifestations of consumer, citizen or brand behaviour often* in response to macro trends pressures CONSUMER TRENDS Sustained shifts in consumer attitudes and behaviours
  • 7. Global Energies © 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 62013/14 Why do organisations use trends? Trends help you make sense of change Trends provide inspiration for new ideas and innovation
  • 8. Global Energies © 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 72013/14 What are the benefits of using trends? Trends help you to become more: • Outward looking • Forward looking • Consumer focused
  • 9. Consumer ‘big picture’ trends Andrew Curry
  • 10. Global Energies © 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 92013/14 Six faces of the global consumer exercise Positive Why? What can you do? Negative
  • 11. March 2014 The six faces of the global consumer A presentation to Enterprising Donegal 2014
  • 12. Global Energies © 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 112013/14
  • 13.
  • 18. +57 % +78 % +231 % +39 % +6% -1% Household income of $10 to $100 dollars a day PPP From $7 trillion to $20 trillion? The new middle class Source:1.OECD(2010)TheEmergingMiddleClassinDevelopingCountries.2.McKinsey(2012)Winningthe$30trillion decathlon:Goingforgoldinemergingmarkets
  • 19.
  • 21.
  • 24.
  • 28. • But its arrival is slow and erratic • It needs reasonable 4G takeup to create markets • Opportunities for monetisation are still unclear • Locational services appear to represent a significant opportunity • Mobile advertising is overhyped
  • 30. “In a digital world, truth has gone round the world before the corporate affairs department has got its boots on.”
  • 31. The Futures Company: Global MONITOR survey 2012 Brands - with benefits?
  • 32. Images: {left) www.primark.com; (right) www.wikipedia.org
  • 35. The Futures Company: Global MONITOR survey 2012 28% of all Global MONITOR respondents feel „a LOT‟ of anger about all four of these issues: „the Global Enraged‟
  • 38. Global Energies © 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 372013/14 Six faces of the global consumer exercise Positive Why? What can you do? Negative
  • 39. The Futures Company 2013 © | 38 Consumer attitudes and behaviours Vera Kiss
  • 40. Global Energies © 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 392013/14 Innovation and proposition development Innovation Proposition What would you do? How would you do it? Why would you do it?
  • 41. The Futures Company 2013 © | 40 40© 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY The emergence of more savvy definitions of value and ownership that help consumers gain the most from each shopping decision
  • 42. Global Energies © 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 412013/14 Considered Consumers Consumers are changing how they define ownership and measure value, in order to thrive in the "new normal" of economic austerity.
  • 43. © 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 43 Global Energies 2013/14 Considered Consumers: Drivers and opportunities Global MacroDynamics: Key opportunity areas for businesses and brands Forces of change in consumers’ lives New models of ownership Giving consumers alternatives to full ownership as a way of reaping the benefits of goods and services The new barter economy Giving consumers the chance to use the residual value of things they already own to access things that they want Premium economy Giving consumers access to premium options at lower prices Opportunities: The continuing softness of the global economy The rising middle class in emerging economies Increasingly squeezed middle classes in developed markets Growth of Internet-enabled devices The increased socialization of online commerce Declining trust in businesses Global Energy
  • 44. Global Energies © 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 442013/14 Opportunity areas New models of ownership Giving consumers alternatives to full ownership as a way of reaping the benefits of goods and services The new barter economy Giving consumers the chance to use the residual value of things they already own to access things that they want Premium economy Giving consumers access to premium options at lower prices Mexico: Sampled ownership Canada: Recycle clothing for credit France: Direct access to unique products
  • 45. The Futures Company 2013 © | 45 45© 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY Finding reassurance in the authentic, amidst a continuing explosion of choice
  • 46. Global Energies © 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 462013/14 Seeking the Genuine Article Consumers everywhere face an explosion of choice in their lives, driving them to look for reassurance in what they perceive as authentic or genuine.
  • 47. © 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 47 Global Energies 2013/14 Seeking the Genuine Article: Drivers and opportunities Genuine provenance Offering consumers the reassurance of a well-made product by leveraging an authentic story of where it’s made The bigger, the better Offering consumers the reassurance of a well-made product/well-delivered service by leveraging size and scale Global Energy Genuine passion Offering consumers the reassurance of an honest and passionate human force behind a brand Global MacroDynamics: Key opportunity areas for businesses and brands Forces of change in consumers’ lives Opportunities: Low trust in businesses and government Growing awareness of organized crime and counterfeiting Growing pressure from NGOs on businesses The rising availability of information on products and businesses More and more choices in more and more categories Growing perceived risk from unsafe, unhealthy or otherwise fake products
  • 48. Global Energies © 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 482013/14 Opportunity areas Genuine provenance Offering consumers the reassurance of a well-made product by leveraging an authentic story of where it’s made The bigger, the better Offering consumers the reassurance of a well-made product/well-delivered service by leveraging size and scale Genuine passion Offering consumers the reassurance of an honest and passionate human force behind a brand France:Genuine sourcing Russia: Deep origins China: Reliable international service
  • 49. The Futures Company 2013 © | 49 49© 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY Enriching daily life with fun and fulfilling experiences that provide an antidote to the pressures of modern living
  • 50. Global Energies © 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 502013/14 Seeking Experiences Consumers continue to look for small thrills and pleasures to escape from the pressures of everyday life, but there’s also a resurgence of interest in bigger, once-in-a-lifetime experiences.
  • 51. © 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 51 Global Energies 2013/14 Seeking Experiences: Drivers and opportunities Everyday play Encouraging playfulness and frivolity to make life more fun Once-in-a-lifetime thrills Offering people life-changing, eye- opening experiences that take them out of the ordinary everyday Global Energy Simple pleasures Small indulgences and modest experiences to rediscover the more profound joys of life Missions with vision Giving people the opportunity to engage in big, purpose-driven activities that reaffirm their connection to others Global MacroDynamics: Key opportunity areas for businesses and brands Forces of change in consumers’ lives Opportunities: Growing use of new measures of social progress The expanding middle class in emerging markets Increasingly squeezed middle class in developed markets Increasing prominence of online social networks More and more choices in more and more categories Increased affordability of travel
  • 52. Global Energies © 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 522013/14 Opportunity areas Everyday play Encouraging playfulness and frivolity to make life more fun Once-in-a-lifetime thrills Offering people life-changing, eye- opening experiences that take them out of the ordinary everyday Simple pleasures Small indulgences and modest experiences to rediscover the more profound joys of life Missions with vision Giving people the opportunity to engage in big, purpose-driven activities that reaffirm their connection to others U.K.: The joy of silence Spain: Pajama Party for Vouchers USA: Travel Roulette China: Personal life journeys
  • 53. The Futures Company 2013 © | 53 53© 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY Participating in trusted and active networks that are reciprocal in nature, and leveraging them in everyday life
  • 54. Global Energies © 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 542013/14 Networked Lives As social networks have reached ubiquity in many markets, consumers are stepping back and taking a more mindful, self-aware approach to the way they participate in the networks they are embedded in—and sometimes trapped in.
  • 55. © 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 55 Global Energies 2013/14 Networked Lives: Drivers and opportunities Global Energy Global MacroDynamics: Key opportunity areas for businesses and brands Forces of change in consumers’ lives Opportunities: Monetizing networkedness Giving people the opportunity to derive financial gain or advantage from their data and networkedness Networked shopping Helping consumers tap into their networks in order to make better- informed purchases The fight for privacy Helping people take control of their data to keep what should be private, private Increasing supply of, and access to, information Changing household structures and family roles Increasing prominence of online social networks The proliferation of smartphones Growing focus on privacy and the security of personal data Increasing distance within relationships of all kinds
  • 56. Global Energies © 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 562013/14 Opportunity areas Monetizing networkedness Giving people the opportunity to derive financial gain or advantage from their data and networkedness Networked shopping Helping consumers tap into their networks in order to make better- informed purchases The fight for privacy Helping people take control of their data to keep what should be private, private U.K.: Networked wardrobes Colombia, Philippines: Loans based on online reputation Global: Safeguarding personal data
  • 57. The Futures Company 2013 © | 57 57© 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY The new ways of exploring, expressing and experiencing identity through personal demographics and beyond
  • 58. Global Energies © 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 582013/14 Dynamic Identities The more consumers have the opportunity to experience life beyond their age, gender and culture, the more they seek the security of being anchored to a core identity that's grounded in those demographics.
  • 59. © 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 59 Global Energies 2013/14 Dynamic Identities: Drivers and opportunities Anchoring roots Providing anchor points based on tradition, religion or cultural heritage in fast-changing times Fusion selves Helping people incorporate and integrate aspects of "other" identities into who they are. Global Energy Exploring otherness Helping people expand their identities by experiencing life beyond their gender, age or cultural background. Global MacroDynamics: Key opportunity areas for businesses and brands Forces of change in consumers’ lives Opportunities: Changing household structures and family roles Changing definitions of ageing Increasing empowerment of women The increased ease of digital cultural exchange The increased affordability of travel
  • 60. Global Energies © 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 602013/14 Opportunity areas Anchoring roots Providing anchor points based on tradition, religion or cultural heritage in fast-changing times Fusion selves Helping people incorporate and integrate aspects of "other" identities into who they are. Exploring otherness Helping people expand their identities by experiencing life beyond their gender, age or cultural background. Spain: Exploring foreign traditions Australia: Traditional male heritage China: Fused luxury
  • 61. 61© 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY The changing aspirations and actions around managing our health and wellbeing
  • 62. Global Energies © 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 622013/14 Navigating Wellbeing: Headline story for 2013 There is a growing gap between how healthy and well consumers want to feel, and what they can actually achieve through their daily actions
  • 63. © 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 63 Global Energies 2013/14 Navigating Wellbeing: Drivers and opportunities Short-term health horizons Offering consumers a concrete promise of better health in the short term, rather than the long term Microspecific measures Giving consumers personalized and/or hyper-specific indicators of health improvement Global Energy Step-by-step to better health Guiding consumers to the next, easily manageable step on their wellness journey Global MacroDynamics: Key opportunity areas for businesses and brands Forces of change in consumers’ lives Opportunities: Global rise in costly lifestyle diseases Increasing use of new measures of social progress The rapid growth of the health and wellness business The emergence of personalized approaches to medicine Increasing supply of, and access to, health information
  • 64. Global Energies © 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 642013/14 Opportunity areas Global: Getting fit, one milestone at a time UK: Personal vitamin pouches Short-term health horizons Offering consumers a concrete promise of better health in the short term, rather than the long term Microspecific measures Giving consumers personalized and/or hyper-specific indicators of health improvement Step-by-step to better health Guiding consumers to the next, easily manageable step on their wellness journey Global: Instant smoking cessation
  • 66. The Futures Company 2013 © | 66 INNOVATION Are there ways that you can change the way you make or sell your products or services so they appeal more to customers? Or offer more value to your customers? Or are more convenient for them? For example: In the US, Dollar Shave Club delivers razors through the post to men in exchange for a small monthly fee. So they don’t have to remember to buy them when out shopping. 1. WHAT would you do? 2. How would you do it? 3. WHY would you do it? Exercise: Using ONE Energy, design an innovation or a change to your proposition PROPOSITION Are there ways in which you can change the way you position your products or services (i.e. the way you talk about them to customers) so they’ll make an easier connection to why they are worth buying? For example: In the UK, the newly created TSB bank emphasises its localness, in contrast to the other high street banks.
  • 68. The Futures Company 2013 © | 68 Afternoon: session 1
  • 69. Global Energies © 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 692013/14 Exercise 1: STEP exerciseBusinessOrganisation External Environment Internal Environment Structure People Task
  • 70. The Futures Company 2013 © | 70 Afternoon: session 2
  • 71. Global Energies © 2013 THE FUTURES COMPANY 712013/14 Exercise 2: Planning exercise What does success look like What do we have to do next (in 12-14 months) What do we have to do now (in next 12 months) Where are we now?

Editor's Notes

  1. Budget-conscious behaviors have become embedded in consumers’ lives, no longer generating the same levels of anxiety as in the early years of the recession. However, it also means that consumers are putting more effort into getting the best deal, making use of the growing array of tools at their disposal. This is changing their attitude of value, and drives more creative definitions of ownership.Consumers in stagnant developed markets have come to the realization that leaner times are here to stay. They have gone beyond temporary belt-tightening measures as their objective shifts from surviving to thriving on more limited budgets. As a result, they will be looking for creative solutions to find good deals and access special treats for less. In these markets, consumers will increasingly be more alert to price than brand names.In emerging markets, many consumers still have a stronger appetite for brands and many are looking to expand their consumption. However, as economies slow down, digital technologies proliferate, and more brands enter their markets, emerging market consumers are in a better position to demand more for their money. This places consumers from many emerging markets among the most enthusiastic deal-seekers.81% of consumers consider it a sign of success or accomplishment to get the best deals on the products and services they buy. Only 51% believe the same about owning luxury products.
  2. In this context, the way consumers think of “ownership” and “value” is changing.Consumers are questioning whether it is necessary to own, or fully own, something in order to derive the desired benefits from it, and this is shaping their value calculation, as well as their shopping choices.Consumers also are leveraging the value in what they already own, as well as their time, data and social connections, to access things that are beyond their purchasing power. In some cases, they turn to peer-to-peer or direct channels, cutting out companies and retailers all together.Consumers also are realizing that paying less doesn't have to mean getting less: Finding smart ways of getting premium features, but still paying a low price, is becoming an important point of pride among consumers everywhere.
  3. La Samplería is a Mexican web-based service that allows consumers to sample new releases before they commit to actually owning them. After trying out the samples, consumers can buy the products from the website. In exchange for their reviews, they get credits they can use for their next purchase.Last winter, Lole , a Montreal-based women’s active wear company ran a promotion where Lole coat owners could bring in their gently used coats, which were then inspected and sold online. All proceeds went to a local food bank and, the used-coat owner got a $50credit for a new coat. Also lots of barter sites globally Onlinetroc France or Wonderlend in SKoreaAlittlemarket is a French website that makes unique handmade items, artisanal fine food products, jewelry and fine art available directly from creators. Sellers have virtual storefronts where they can sell their products. By sourcing directly from the creators and cutting out middlemen sellers can set more affordable prices for consumers. –An example of many online services that allow people respite from the overall constraint on spending
  4. Globally, high levels of distrust in companies is making the promise that a brand is genuine even more important. However, different people define “genuine” differently.Only 34% globally say that With minor exceptions, the honesty and integrity of businesses in their dealings with the public is at a very high levelIn developed markets, where skepticism around the integrity of big companies is high, people tend to seek reassurance in companies with a more human face, which are able to demonstrate a genuine passion for what they do. In European markets in particular this is important In these markets around 80% of people say that If the opportunity arises, most businesses will take advantage of the public, if they feel they are not likely to be found outIn emerging markets, where skepticism around big companies is still lower, the most “genuine” products might be those that come from the biggest, most international companies, whose scale and clout are thought to allow them access to better ingredients and processes. For example, in Indonesia and Thailand, belief in the integrity of companies (68% and 79% respectively) is far ahead of skepticism in the claims companies make (45% and 61%).
  5. The question is not whether consumers will seek out more genuine offers. The challenge is to execute it in ways that resonate with local consumer contexts.Brands have many tools at their disposal to offer a sense of reassurance. This includes the human force and passion behind the brand, as well as the authentic stories brands can craft from location and provenance. In emerging markets in particular, big brands from big companies still have the advantage when it comes to the perceptions of authenticity that lead to consumer preference. The trick in these markets is how to leverage size and scale to support a story of authenticity and genuineness, without running the risk of becoming distant, impersonal and, ultimately, irrelevant.
  6. In the context of rising consumer distrust about the origins of agricultural produce, Danone’s communications in France increasingly emphasize the independent farmers and the cows behind its milk. Its recent campaigns highlight the win-win relationship with farmers, who also are motivated to produce genuine and trustworthy products.The Russian company IDS Borjomi Russia created a website for the famous natural Georgian mineral water Borjomi. This water is sourced from deep underground. In order to show this to consumers, they launched the world’s deepest website, 8 kilometers underground, where the water originatesEbay Style is seen to offer consumers a reliable and transparent service, and protection from counterfeit goods.Chinese consumers can now purchase Ebay items from the U.S. while a local partner handles shipping and logistics. As an extremely large international platform, Ebay is considered more trustworthy than domestic platforms, and consumers can rest assured that they will get what they ordered.
  7. The rise of the experience economy and people expecting more from retailers and brands as they try to make choices from an abundance of optionI am always looking for new experiences and sensations that will liven up my everyday activities. This rose from 49% to 56% between 2011-2013The need to escape everyday uncertainties remains an important trend in developed markets, ranging from seeking small pleasures to pursuing more meaningful experiences. Despite—or maybe even because of—financial difficulties for consumers in Italy and Spain, novelty in products and services has become more important. So despite the financial difficulties people there is rising appetite for novelty.For many emerging market consumers, higher disposable incomes and more choice in products and services mean that an array of new experiences are within reach. This means that in many emerging markets, consumers display a stronger appetite for novelty and demand richer experiences from products, beyond simple functionality. Agreement with “When I buy any product, its style and design is as important as its performance” has risen in most emerging markets.62% globally say: Somewhat/very likely to do in the next 12 months: Put money toward a once-in-a-lifetime experience or purchase
  8. Consumers will be looking for a wide range of experiences from products, services and brandsIn the past few years, as many people have had to learn to live with less money and far greater uncertainty, the focus seems to have been on small experiences that punctuate everyday life, and provide boosts to body and spirit. With the global economy continuing to be soft, consumers will continue to seek out simple pleasures and moments of play to break their stressful routines.However, people also are seeking fulfillment on a larger scale. More than in recent years, there seems to be growing interest in once-in-a-lifetime experiences that change one’s perspective on life—either fleetingly or permanently
  9. U.K. department store Selfridges introduced a new store-wide concept called No Noise. It is an initiative that goes beyond retail, but invites customers to celebrate the power of quiet, see the beauty in function, and find calm among the crowds.ThelingeriestoreWomen’sSecretorganized a series of “PajamaParties,” withactivitieslikebed-jumping and pillow-throwing, in themiddle of a Barcelona shopping mall. Womenwereinvitedtolet off steam and gocrazy, jumping aroundon a giantbed. Theireffortwasrewardedwith a series of giftvouchershidden in thefloatingballonsabovethem. Heineken recently launched a campaign daring travelers to play what they called “Departure Roulette.” It challenged travelers to drop their existing travel plans for a random, unknown destination revealed with the push of a button. One man dropped his 6-week trip to Vienna for a serendipitous voyage to Cyprus.Diageo’s Johnnie Walker campaign in China,  "Yulu" or "Words of a Journey", uses a documentary approach to tell the stories of 12 Chinese pioneers, chosen from the fields of business, the arts and social activism. They all reflect upon their life journeys against the backdrop of modern China. These stories are meant to inspire Chinese consumers to reflect back on their own personal journeys.
  10. In a few short years, social networks have gone from fringe to fun to fundamental. In both developed and emerging markets, online networking platforms like Facebook, Twitter and Weibo, as well as smartphones, have quickly reached critical mass. As this happens, consumers’ social, shopping and consumption habits have all changed in seemingly irreversible ways. With the new ubiquity of networked living has come what seems to be a new shift in the way people are engaging with their social networks: from mindless to mindful. 76% say I am concerned about data protection and privacy on the InternetThe extent to which consumers take a more guarded vs. a more open approach to networks reflects the state of Internet infrastructure, as much as cultural norms around privacy.Developed markets with high levels of Internet penetration tend to be more concerned with online privacy. This partly reflects the fact that in highly networked societies, the complexities of digital privacy are more top-of-mind. It also can signal more guarded cultural perceptions of where the margins of public and private lie, in some cases driven by historical experience (e.g. Germany). Social networks are already embedded in most developed markets and as such, provoke less enthusiasm. This means that brands have to work hard to deliver benefits while respecting privacy.Consumers in emerging markets tend to express more enthusiasm about social network use. The top 5 markets where people say that the Internet helps them connect with like-minded individuals all are emerging (80% Indonesia, 76% Russia, 75% India, 71% Thailand, 67% Colombia, vs. 57 % Global average). In some societies, the Internet allows more free expression than social norms or politics otherwise permit. However, large social networks also are a source of influence. Building networks of social influence as an aspiration resonates more in emerging markets.
  11. Going forward, it will be increasingly important for companies to find new, mutually beneficial ways to engage with the mindfully networked consumer, both on and around the networks they can’t live without.On the one hand, recent events have made people all over the world aware of just how compromised their privacy, and the security of their personal data is. This will increasingly make the effort to respect and safeguard people’s privacy a differentiator in how consumers perceive a brand or service.On the other hand, more and more people also are realizing that there is financial value in their social networks and their personal data—value that they’re currently not personally maximizing. Giving people the opportunity to benefit from being networked, whether to enhance their shopping or their social activities, is a growing opportunity.
  12. What I’m Wearing Today is a U.K.-based fashion blog where people can upload pictures of themselves, and collect likes and advice from peers. The website also features a “Lust List” where users can extend their wardrobes by ordering from a curated selection of clothes on the site.Lenddois an online financial services company operating in Colombia and the Philippines. Lenddo’s goal is to expand loan access to the emerging middle classes in these countries. The idea is to leverage online social connections to prove creditworthiness. This is especially important for people who are new to personal finance, and do not have credit history. It is essentially credit based on community trust that can be tracked online.Cluefulis an app developed in Romania, which identifies and rates applications that abuse your personal data. This helps consumers who do not have time to investigate the security of all their apps to reduce privacy risks. Apple pulled the app from its store, probably fearing that it would discourage downloads, but Clueful is back now as a web app.
  13. Changing household structures, the increased affordability of travel, advances in medicine, the Internet—these are just some of the forces that have freed consumers from living lives dictated by their demographics. The line between masculine and feminine is blurred, it's okay to not act your age, and you haven't really lived life until you've lived it—or at least seen it—from the point-of-view of someone from another culture.As expanding and evolving identities become the norm, however, consumers are realizing that they still need and want a secure "base" from which to explore all the identities that they can play with. Consequently, they're seeking to reconnect with the identities they were born with.This has risen from 52% to 56% between 2012-13 Extremely/very important in your personal life today: Preserving your family’s cultural traditionsAnchoring one’s identity in one’s cultural roots is increasing in importance everywhere, but for different reasons.The co-existence of diverse identities is well established in many developed markets. However, in a recessionary environment, people’s sense of freedom to shape their identities has declined. In developed markets, the rise of consumer interest in anchoring their identity in “traditional” values also is likely driven by the more inward-looking attitude the economic crisis has created.Although identities are undeniably shaped by global influences, the importance of preserving traditions is high in many emerging markets. While in some cases, this could be driven by the fear of global influences eroding local cultures (71% of Indonesian, 69% of Thai and 67% of Indian consumers agree with this), in others, it signals the growing confidence many feel as a result of their county’s rising economic, political and cultural influence.
  14. The co-existence of contradictory trends in Dynamic Identities makes it a truly dynamic energy, where local nuance and the relative importance of diverse social and cultural trends will play an especially important role.Many consumers will continue to experience and experiment with identities beyond their own backgrounds. However, this can co-exist with the growing importance of finding anchor points in tradition and heritage.For some, this complexity will drive an interest in fusing elements of other identities with those that are most valued from their own backgrounds.
  15. Jameson Irish Whiskey has opened “Jameson Place” in Madrid—a space dedicated to people who want to learn about whiskey, or organize whiskey tasting sessions with friends. Neil, a real Irish whiskey expert, is the host of “Jameson Place.Beer and Cider producer James Squire has recently produced an outdoor ad campaign that plays on a large component of Australia’s national identity—its convict colony past. The images of men in this ad campaign are visually reminiscent and evocative of early images of Australian bush rangers, and use that as an anchor point for Australian masculinity with a tongue-in-cheek touch.Estée Lauder launched Osiao, a beauty line tailor-made for Asian consumers. By integrating traditional Chinese medicine ingredients like ginseng, Osiao appeals to Chinese consumers’ local pride and traditional health beliefs, while leveraging consumers’ trust in Western brands and luxury brands.
  16. Today, more consumers globally (93%) consider “being physically fit and in good health” a sign of success in life, vs. “having a lot of money” (81%). However, globally, only 44% are satisfied with their physical health, down from 50% in 2010. This reveals a growing gap between how healthy people want to feel, and how they actually feel in their everyday lives. Despite differences in context and level of development, consumers everywhere are worried about access to adequate healthcare that could help them close the health gap.In developed markets, where austerity continues to be a priority, consumers worry about having enough to take care of their health, amidst a large number of other worries and concerns. As a result, they will be looking for simple solutions that help them feel healthy, while leaving them enough money, time and energy to also face the other challenges and uncertainties they’re confronting everyday.In many emerging markets, lifestyle diseases have seen rapid growth in recent years, and many consumers now realize that they need to take action. These lifestyle diseases, combined with ageing populations, are straining already stretched public health care systems to the breaking point, placing health top-of-mind both for individuals and society as a whole, in markets as diverse as Brazil, Indonesia and South Africa.There is growing recognition that consumers need more help to close the widening health gapThe many products and activities that have arisen in recent years, that have promised consumers better health and wellness (yoga, functional foods, fortified foods, nutraceuticals, etc.), seem to be under-delivering. Consequently, consumers seem to be questioning their value, and returning to a more reactive (vs. proactive) approach to health care. There is an emerging opportunity to help consumers close this health gap by offering them a more measured approach to health and wellbeing. This can involve a more step-by-step approach, the setting of shorter and more tangible goals, or more micro-personalized solutions.
  17. Fitbit is a self-monitoring device that measures various metrics of activity and fitness (activity, calories, sleeping patterns, nutrition). It allows users to set their own goals and gives them ongoing support and information about what they need to do to achieve their fitness goals. Instead of overloading people with monitored information, the device’s communications focus on milestones and taking people on a step by step journey to fitness(Dietmfb.com assigns each customer a dietician, who designs a healthy meal plan that fits the user’s needs and lifestyle. Dietmfb.com then makes the meals and delivers them daily to the customer’s home, ensuring easy, hassle-free health improvement. )Nicorette QuickMist in Canadaclaims to control cravings within 60 seconds, allowing the user to quit smoking without the problems of sudden, long-lasting cravings. Nicorette has created a specific timeline for customers as they gradually reduce their use of QuickMist, from every ½ hour in the first 6 weeks, to 2 to 4 sprays a day after 12 weeks, offering a clear and measured approach to stopping smoking. Thrive Vitamins in the U.K.creates personal 28-day vitamin plans and sends daily pouches to customers. These personal plans are based on information completed in an individual survey, giving each consumer the vitamin combination that best suits his/her health and lifestyle needs.