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OCTOBER 2011

                              Gresham Group 150


                                                           October 2011
                           Darren Martin
                           Gresham Advisory Partners
                           dmartin@gresham.com.au
                           +61 8 9486 7077
                           +61 412 144 719



ASX RESOURCES - GROUP 150
We are pleased to present the October edition of ‘Gresham Group 150’, a ranking of the top 150 ASX listed resources
companies (excluding oil and gas), by market capitalisation.
September felt like another month at “ASX Casino” with only 18 companies recording a positive increment on their market
value. The Gresham Group 150 lost $72.5 billion or 14.2% during the month, with the cumulative market value falling
from $509.8 billion to $437.3 billion, a level not seen while we have been compiling the Group 150. At the end of the first
week of October, approximately $33 billion had been recaptured with the cumulative market value climbing back to $470
billion.
The entry threshold for September’s list fell dramatically to $96.6 million, down from $111.2 million last month. The ASX/
S&P 200 Resources Index decreased 13.4%, while the ASX All Ordinaries and ASX/S&P 200 Index decreased 6.9% and 6.7%
respectively.
Given the turmoil in the market in recent months, we reviewed the thesis from the March 2011 edition, “cash is king and
debt is bad”. Utilising the recent 30 June balance sheets, we updated the market gearing levels for the Gresham Group 150
to identify any stretched balance sheets or dramatic changes in gearing levels.
The updated study found that consistent with previous findings, approximately 80% of companies still remain in a net
cash position and the weighted average gearing level has decreased marginally to circa 1.1% (versus 2.6% at March 2011),
when measured on a net cash to enterprise value basis.
During the relevant period the market value of the Gresham Group 150 has declined 28% from $605.4 billion at end of
February to $437.3 billion at 30 September 2011 and cash reserves have decreased by $9.2 billion from $42.7 billion to
$33.5 billion while total debt has increased $4.8 billion from $40.9 billion to $45.7 billion.
Returns at “ASX Casino” in October will be interesting. Having witnessed a couple of spins of the wheel from the US Federal
Reserve in response to rapidly deteriorating economic and financial conditions, it now appears the leaders of Germany
and France are going to have a spin and unveil a comprehensive package to recapitalise the European banks by the end
of October. Early indications (given market commentary around a possible offer for Extract) suggest the uranium sector
may hit the Jackpot!
Gresham Advisory Partners Limited


                                     Gresham Advisory Partners is a leading Australian mergers and acquisitions/corporate advisory
Edition 19                           business and one of Australia’s largest and highest ranking independent corporate advisors.


                                                                                                                                1
Group 150
       Top 150 asX LisTed resource companies - sepTember
       By Market Capitalisation
                                                                         Mkt Cap (A$m)           %                                                                    Mkt Cap (A$m)          %

 Sep        Aug       Company                                        30-Sep-11    31-Aug-11    Change    Sep   Aug   Company                                       30-Sep-11   31-Aug-11   Change

   1          1       BHP Billiton Ltd. (ASX:BHP)                    $186,464.7   $211,605.9   (11.9%)   51    60    Gold One International Limited (ASX:GDO)         $432.8      $428.8     0.9%

   2          2       Rio Tinto Ltd. (ASX:RIO)                       $117,238.1   $138,406.7   (15.3%)   52    77    Hunnu Coal Limited (ASX:HUN)                     $418.0      $318.7    31.2%

   3          3       Newcrest Mining Ltd. (ASX:NCM)                  $26,051.2    $30,791.3   (15.4%)   53    57    Ramelius Resources Ltd. (ASX:RMS)                $413.2      $445.1    (7.2%)

   4          4       Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. (ASX:FMG)           $13,763.0    $18,836.7   (26.9%)   54    54    Guildford Coal Limited (ASX:GUF)                 $411.3      $480.1   (14.3%)

   5          5       Coal & Allied Industries Ltd. (ASX:CNA)         $10,675.0    $10,667.2     0.1%    55    55    Integra Mining Ltd. (ASX:IGR)                    $396.6      $472.4   (16.0%)

   6          6       Iluka Resources Ltd. (ASX:ILU)                   $5,216.8     $6,830.7   (23.6%)   56    52    Gryphon Minerals Ltd. (ASX:GRY)                  $390.2      $517.4   (24.6%)

   7          7       MacArthur Coal Ltd. (ASX:MCC)                    $4,809.3     $4,800.2     0.2%    57    91    Mineral Deposits Ltd. (ASX:MDL)                  $389.5      $362.9     7.4%

   8          9       New Hope Corp. Ltd. (ASX:NHC)                    $4,474.9     $4,217.6     6.1%    58    62    Ampella Mining Limited (ASX:AMX)                 $389.5      $406.9    (4.3%)

   9          8       Alumina Ltd. (ASX:AWC)                           $3,611.5     $4,294.7   (15.9%)   59    58    Cockatoo Coal Limited (ASX:COK)                  $386.2      $431.9   (10.6%)

  10         10       OZ Minerals Limited (ASX:OZL)                    $2,983.1     $3,785.1   (21.2%)   60    73    Saracen Mineral Holdings Limited (ASX:SAR)       $384.9      $356.8     7.9%

  11         13       Whitehaven Coal Limited (ASX:WHC)                $2,635.5     $2,961.9   (11.0%)   61    61    Summit Resources Ltd. (ASX:SMM)                  $381.5      $413.1    (7.7%)

  12         11       Atlas Iron Limited (ASX:AGO)                     $2,526.7     $3,217.7   (21.5%)   62    66    Troy Resources NL (ASX:TRY)                      $362.6      $393.4    (7.8%)

  13         15       Aston Resources Limited (ASX:AZT)                $2,057.5     $2,384.8   (13.7%)   63    70    Bougainville Copper Ltd. (ASX:BOC)               $354.9      $363.0    (2.2%)

  14         17       Extract Resources Ltd. (ASX:EXT)                 $1,916.3     $2,024.3    (5.3%)   64    50    Bandanna Energy Limited (ASX:BND)                $347.8      $521.7   (33.3%)

  15         12       Lynas Corporation Limited (ASX:LYC)              $1,868.1     $3,102.1   (39.8%)   65    67    Kingsrose Mining Limited (ASX:KRM)               $327.3      $387.0   (15.4%)

  16         14       Aquila Resources Ltd. (ASX:AQA)                  $1,864.4     $2,396.0   (22.2%)   66    69    Indophil Resources NL (ASX:IRN)                  $318.5      $363.3   (12.3%)

  17         16       PanAust Limited (ASX:PNA)                        $1,508.4     $2,161.7   (30.2%)   67    80    WPG Resources Ltd (ASX:WPG)                      $316.9      $299.8     5.7%

  18         18       Mount Gibson Iron Ltd. (ASX:MGX)                 $1,450.6     $1,802.5   (19.5%)   68    51    Alkane Resources Limited (ASX:ALK)               $306.7      $517.9   (40.8%)

  19         19       Aquarius Platinum Ltd. (ASX:AQP)                 $1,388.0     $1,796.0   (22.7%)   69    75    Metals X Limited (ASX:MLX)                       $301.6      $323.8    (6.8%)

  20         20       Gloucester Coal Ltd. (ASX:GCL)                   $1,369.6     $1,795.7   (23.7%)   70    63    OM Holdings Limited (ASX:OMH)                    $298.7      $406.7   (26.5%)

  21         22       Perseus Mining Ltd. (ASX:PRU)                    $1,301.5     $1,532.4   (15.1%)   71    81    Adamus Resources Ltd. (ASX:ADU)                  $292.9      $292.9     0.0%

  22         23       Medusa Mining Limited (ASX:MML)                  $1,285.9     $1,515.3   (15.1%)   72    74    Noble Mineral Resources Ltd. (ASX:NMG)           $292.3      $324.5    (9.9%)

  23         24       Sundance Resources Ltd. (ASX:SDL)                $1,245.4     $1,371.6    (9.2%)   73    82    Tiger Resources Ltd. (ASX:TGS)                   $291.9      $291.9     0.0%

  24         25       Regis Resources Limited (ASX:RRL)                $1,132.4     $1,269.5   (10.8%)   74    59    Kagara Ltd (ASX:KZL)                             $287.2      $430.8   (33.3%)

  25         27       Zimplats Holdings Ltd. (ASX:ZIM)                 $1,027.9     $1,184.0   (13.2%)   75    65    FerrAus Ltd. (ASX:FRS)                           $286.2      $394.6   (27.5%)

  26         31       Minara Resources Ltd. (ASX:MRE)                  $1,023.2     $1,023.2     0.0%    76    86    Catalpa Resources Limited (ASX:CAH)              $277.3      $276.2     0.4%

  27         26       Kingsgate Consolidated Limited (ASX:KCN)          $998.3      $1,235.1   (19.2%)   77    76    Equatorial Resources Limited (ASX:EQX)           $275.8      $322.2   (14.4%)

  28         21       Paladin Energy, Ltd. (ASX:PDN)                    $944.4      $1,632.4   (42.1%)   78    68    Aditya Birla Minerals Limited (ASX:ABY)          $272.6      $380.7   (28.4%)

  29         29       Sandfire Resources (ASX:SFR)                      $912.8      $1,101.9   (17.2%)   79    64    Brockman Resources Limited (ASX:BRM)             $270.9      $404.9   (33.1%)

  30         28       Independence Group NL (ASX:IGO)                   $876.6      $1,109.9   (21.0%)   80    87    Conquest Mining Limited (ASX:CQT)                $265.4      $271.2    (2.2%)

  31         33       CGA Mining Limited (ASX:CGX)                      $833.7       $870.4     (4.2%)   81    89    Tanami Gold NL (ASX:TAM)                         $263.6      $270.1    (2.4%)

  32         32       Coalspur Mines Limited (ASX:CPL)                  $800.1       $988.5    (19.1%)   82    72    Metminco Limited. (ASX:MNC)                      $263.3      $358.3   (26.5%)

  33         30       Western Areas NL (ASX:WSA)                        $776.5      $1,056.8   (26.5%)   83    71    Panoramic Resources Ltd. (ASX:PAN)               $262.3      $361.4   (27.4%)

  34         37       Resolute Mining Ltd. (ASX:RSG)                    $710.6       $760.2     (6.5%)   84    84    Focus Minerals Limited (ASX:FML)                 $261.9      $284.0    (7.8%)

  35         39       ST Barbara Ltd. (ASX:SBM)                         $667.5       $674.0     (1.0%)   85    92    Northern Energy Corporation Ltd (ASX:NEC)        $261.3      $261.3     0.0%

  36         34       Mirabela Nickel Ltd. (ASX:MBN)                    $661.4       $816.4    (19.0%)   86    78    Perilya Ltd. (ASX:PEM)                           $246.9      $312.6   (21.0%)

  37         44       Discovery Metals Ltd. (ASX:DML)                   $577.5       $605.4     (4.6%)   87    83    Aspire Mining Limited (ASX:AKM)                  $246.0      $286.5   (14.2%)

  38         36       Energy Resources of Australia Ltd. (ASX:ERA)      $557.0       $768.7    (27.5%)   88    79    Cape Lambert Resources Limited (ASX:CFE)         $234.7      $305.9   (23.3%)

  39         38       Gindalbie Metals Ltd. (ASX:GBG)                   $547.2       $722.1    (24.2%)   89    113   Nucoal Resources NL (ASX:NCR)                    $227.8      $181.1    25.8%

  40         49       Kangaroo Resources Limited (ASX:KRL)              $532.3       $532.3      0.0%    90    100   Flinders Mines Limited. (ASX:FMS)                $227.6      $227.6     0.0%

  41         48       Sphere Minerals Limited (ASX:SPH)                 $529.5       $540.1     (2.0%)   91    90    Straits Resources Limited (ASX:SRQ)              $227.4      $266.3   (14.6%)

  42         40       Ivanhoe Australia Limited (ASX:IVA)               $529.2       $665.8    (20.5%)   92    95    BC Iron Limited (ASX:BCI)                        $224.9      $246.7    (8.8%)

  43         42       Jupiter Mines Ltd. (ASX:JMS)                      $501.5       $647.9    (22.6%)   93    102   Exco Resources Ltd. (ASX:EXS)                    $223.2      $224.0    (0.4%)

  44         35       Intrepid Mines Limited (ASX:IAU)                  $485.8       $799.1    (39.2%)   94    93    Red 5 Ltd. (ASX:RED)                             $218.2      $256.7   (15.0%)

  45         46       Beadell Resources Ltd (ASX:BDR)                   $477.0       $562.5    (15.2%)   95    94    Gujarat NRE Coking Coal Limited (ASX:GNM)        $218.1      $247.7   (12.0%)

  46         53       Northern Iron Limited (ASX:NFE)                   $470.5       $487.3     (3.4%)   96    98    Arafura Resources Limited (ASX:ARU)              $209.7      $233.7   (10.2%)

  47         43       White Energy Company Limited (ASX:WEC)            $467.8       $629.0    (25.6%)   97    107   South Boulder Mines Ltd. (ASX:STB)               $204.8      $203.9     0.5%

  48         56       Silver Lake Resources Limited (ASX:SLR)           $464.5       $465.1     (0.1%)   98    99    Greenland Minerals and Energy Ltd (ASX:GGG)      $201.1      $231.9   (13.3%)

  49         45       Grange Resources Limited (ASX:GRR)                $461.4       $594.1    (22.3%)   99    97    Galaxy Resources (ASX:GXY)                       $195.6      $242.5   (19.3%)

  50         41       Bathurst Resources Ltd (ASX:BTU)                  $437.0       $657.3    (33.5%)   100   101   Marengo Mining Limited (ASX:MGO)                 $195.5      $225.5   (13.3%)
Includes ASX Resource companies excluding oil and gas


       2
OCTOBER 2011




                                                                            Mkt Cap (A$m)            %                                                                      Mkt Cap (A$m)          %

   Sep        Aug      Company                                          30-Sep-11     31-Aug-11    Change     Sep   Aug    Company                                      30-Sep-11    31-Aug-11   Change

   101         85      Rex Minerals Limited. (ASX:RXM)                      $186.7        $280.4   (33.4%)    126    133   Crusader Resources Limited (ASX:CAS)             $121.2      $138.2   (12.4%)

   102         112     Astron Ltd. (ASX:ATR)                                $185.1        $186.6    (0.8%)    127    118   Orocobre Limited (ASX:ORE)                       $114.5      $171.3   (33.1%)

   103         105     Hillgrove Resources Ltd. (ASX:HGO)                   $178.6        $210.3   (15.1%)    128    134   Alcyone Resources Ltd (ASX:AYN)                  $114.5      $138.2   (17.1%)

   104         164     Base Resources Limited (ASX:BSE)                     $175.0         $95.1    84.0%     129    129   Altona Mining Limited (ASX:AOH)                  $114.1      $145.2   (21.4%)

   105         108     Northern Star Resources Ltd. (ASX:NST)               $174.5        $198.1   (11.9%)    130    144   Finders Resources Limited (ASX:FND)              $111.8      $118.8    (5.9%)

   106         106     Iron Ore Holdings Limited (ASX:IOH)                  $166.1        $205.9   (19.4%)    131    158   Papillon Resources Limited (ASX:PIR)             $110.7      $101.4     9.2%

   107         109     Atlantic Ltd (ASX:ATI)                               $165.7        $193.8   (14.5%)    132    127   YTC Resources Limited (ASX:YTC)                  $110.7      $146.7   (24.6%)

   108         110     Kula Gold Limited (ASX:KGD)                          $163.3        $191.4   (14.7%)    133    124   NKWE Platinum Ltd. (ASX:NKP)                     $109.0      $152.5   (28.6%)

   109         120     Norton Gold Fields Limited (ASX:NGF)                 $161.4        $160.6     0.5%     134    131   African Energy Resources Limited (ASX:AFR)       $107.7      $142.0   (24.1%)

   110         104     Cokal Limited (ASX:CKA)                              $158.8        $217.6   (27.0%)    135    128   Metrocoal Ltd. (ASX:MTE)                         $107.1      $146.7   (27.0%)

   111         117     Ausgold Limited (ASX:AUC)                            $154.4        $172.7   (10.6%)    136    125   African Iron Limited (ASX:AKI)                   $105.4      $151.0   (30.2%)

   112         103     Moly Mines Ltd. (ASX:MOL)                            $154.0        $219.4   (29.8%)    137    168   Ironbark Zinc Ltd. (ASX:IBG)                     $105.0       $92.1    14.0%

   113         122     Blackgold International Hold. Ltd (ASX:BGG)          $153.0        $157.5    (2.9%)    138    132   Cerro Resources NL (ASX:CJO)                     $104.8      $140.1   (25.2%)

   114         135     Azimuth Resources Limited (ASX:AZH)                  $148.2        $136.4     8.6%     139    138   Reed Resources Ltd. (ASX:RDR)                    $103.2      $124.4   (17.0%)

   115         115     Highlands Pacific Limited (ASX:HIG)                  $147.3        $178.4   (17.4%)    140    151   Rocklands Richfield Limited (ASX:RCI)            $102.7      $109.9    (6.6%)

   116         96      Carabella Resources Limited (ASX:CLR)                $147.2        $245.4   (40.0%)    141    140   Peninsula Energy Limited (ASX:PEN)               $102.5      $121.1   (15.3%)

   117         88      Murchison Metals Limited (ASX:MMX)                   $146.5        $271.2   (46.0%)    142    137   Sylvania Resources Ltd. (ASX:SLP)                $102.4      $128.0   (20.0%)

   118         114     Deep Yellow Ltd. (ASX:DYL)                           $141.1        $180.6   (21.9%)    143    123   Resource Generation Limited (ASX:RES)            $101.9      $154.7   (34.2%)

   119         116     Mincor Resources NL (ASX:MCR)                        $136.4        $176.2   (22.6%)    144    152   Mungana Goldmines Ltd (ASX:MUX)                  $101.7      $109.5    (7.2%)

   120         126     ABM Resources NL (ASX:ABU)                           $133.4        $146.7    (9.1%)    145    130   Azumah Resources Ltd (ASX:AZM)                   $101.5      $142.2   (28.6%)

   121         121     Cobar Consolidated Resources Ltd (ASX:CCU)           $129.4        $160.0   (19.1%)    146    136   Indo Mines Limited (ASX:IDO)                     $101.1      $128.7   (21.4%)

   122         163     Australasian Resources Ltd (ASX:ARH)                 $128.5         $96.4    33.3%     147    153   Kentor Gold Limited (ASX:KGL)                     $99.8      $105.1    (5.0%)

   123         141     Tribune Resources Limited (ASX:TBR)                  $125.8        $120.7     4.2%     148    139   Robust Resources Limited (ASX:ROL)                $99.0      $122.3   (19.1%)

   124         111     Gold Road Resources Limited (ASX:GOR)                $125.2        $190.3   (34.2%)    149    159   Centrex Metals Limited (ASX:CXM)                  $98.8      $100.4    (1.6%)

   125         119     Tigers Realm Coal Limited (ASX:TIG)                  $121.9        $163.8   (25.6%)    150    143   Dragon Mining Limited (ASX:DRA)                   $96.6      $119.5   (19.2%)
Source: Capital IQ


new enTranTs - sepTember                                                                                     eXiTs - sepTember
104                  Base Resources Limited (ASX:BSE)                                                        CuDeco Ltd. (ASX:CDU) - currently suspended
122                  Australasian Resources Ltd (ASX:ARH)                                                    Industrial Minerals Corporation Ltd. (ASX:IDM)
131                  Papillon Resources Limited (ASX:PIR)                                                    Northern Minerals Limited (ASX:NTU)
137                  Ironbark Zinc Ltd. (ASX:IBG)                                                            IMX Resources Ltd. (ASX:IXR)
140                  Rocklands Richfield Limited (ASX:RCI)                                                   Stanmore Coal Limited (ASX:SMR)
144                  Mungana Goldmines Ltd (ASX:MUX)                                                         Continental Coal Limited (ASX:CCC)
147                  Kentor Gold Limited (ASX:KGL)                                                           Iron Road Limited (ASX:IRD)
149                  Centrex Metals Limited (ASX:CXM)                                                        Resource and Investment NL (ASX:RNI)
Based on market capitalisation as at 30 September vs 31 August

Group 150 Leaders and LaGGers - markeT capiTaLisaTion performance - sepTember
                                                              Leaders



                                                                                                                                              Laggers




       * Included material placement, acquisition and/or option conversion during month

                                                                                                                                                                                                   3
Group 150
Group 150 markeT capiTaLisaTion
                                                                                                                                               -6.4%
                                                                                                                                                                                           437.3
                                                                                                                  +21.5%
    Market Valuation (A$b) - Group 150




asX indeX performance - sepTember                                                                                               Group 150 mkT cap - by commodiTy




merGer & acquisiTions - announced in sepTember
                                                                                                                                                  Percent    Premium -       Premium -
           Date                                                                                                                      Value                                                 Consideration
                                         Target                                          Acquirer                                                 Sought     1 Day Prior   1 Month Prior
         Announced                                                                                                                   (A$m)                                                   Offered
                                                                                                                                                    (%)         (%)             (%)

  29-Sep-2011                            Anvil Mining Limited (TSX:AVM)                  Minmetals Resources Limited (SEHK:1208)     1,282.0           100      38.2           34.7            Cash

                                         Iron Ore Holdings Limited, Koodaideri South
  27-Sep-2011                                                                            Hamersley Iron Pty Ltd                       32.0             100        -              -             Cash
                                         Tenement

  20-Sep-2011                            Mbila Resources (Pty) Limited                   ZYL Limited (ASX:ZYL)                        26.1             44         -              -         Combinations

  12-Sep-2011                            Hunnu Coal Limited (ASX:HUN)                    Banpu Minerals (Singapore) Pte. Ltd.        420.2             88       30.0           45.8            Cash

  9-Sep-2011                             Pinnacle Group Assets Limited                   Cape Lambert Resources Limited (ASX:CFE)     15.0             10         -              -         Combinations


Source: Capital IQ
Announced Australian Resources (excluding oil and gas) Mergers and Acquisitions >A$10m




4
OCTOBER 2011




capiTaL sTucTure - GearinG LeveLs
Changing gearing levels in a falling market

In the March 2011 edition, we reviewed the thesis “cash is king and debt is bad” based on the net cash position of the Gresham
Group 150 utilising market values at end of February adjusted for 31 December 2010 balance sheets.
Given the uncertainty in the markets in recent months, the analysis has been updated to account for the net cash position at
30 June 2011. During this time the market value of the Gresham Group 150 has declined 28% from $605.4 billion to $437.3
billion at 30 September 2011 and cash reserves have decreased by $9.2 billion from $42.7 billion to $33.5 billion while total debt
has increased $4.8 billion from $40.9 billion to $45.7 billion.
The study found that approximately 80% of companies still remain in a net cash position, consistent with previous findings, but
the weighted average gearing level has decreased marginally to circa 1.1% (versus 2.6% at March 2011), when measured on a
net cash to enterprise value basis.
In a change from March, the companies with overseas focussed operations are in a stronger net cash position than peers with
domestic focussed operations – refer next page. Below is a summary of the gearing levels of the Gresham Group 150.


                                                   Gearing (Net Debt /Enterprise Value)
                                          Group 150 Mining Companies – by Market Capitalisation




                                    NET DEBT
Net Debt / Enterprise Value




                                                                                  NET CASH


                                                               80% in net cash position




Source: Capital IQ
Based on Net Debt at 30 June 2011




                                                                                                                                5
Group 150
     capiTaL sTucTure - GearinG LeveLs
                                     Net Debt /Enterprise Value
                        Group 150 Mining Companies – by Market Capitalisation




                                                                                NET DEBT




                               NET CASH




Source: Capital IQ


     6
OCTOBER 2011



base meTaLs - secTor performance
                                                                               Share Price Performance - September 2011

                                                                                     Copper                                                                  Nickel                      Zinc
Share Price Performance




                                                                            Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2011
Share Price Performance




                                                                     Share Price Performance - Since 31 December 2010
                          50%




                          25%
                                                             11.4%
Share Price Performance




                                                                     2.6%
                           0%

                                                                                                                                                                                       -5.0%
                                                     -7.4%                                                                                          -7.9%
                                                                                                                           -13.9%
                          -25%                                                                                                                                                                 -20.3%
                                                                                 -22.4%
                                                                                                                      -25.4%                                               -27.6%
                                                                                                                                                                                    Average - (13%)
                                 -35.1%
                                       -37.7%    Average - (16%)
                                                                                                      -40.6%-42.9%                                               -41.0%
                          -50%                                                                                                       -45.7%
                                            -47.6%                          -50.0%         -51.3%                                          -50.6%
                                                                                                 -55.6%                                                               -53.7%
                                                                                                                 -58.5%             Average - (41%)
                                                                                      -63.9%                                                                -63.1%
                          -75%




                                                                                                                                                                                                        7
Group 150
coaL - secTor performance
                             Share Price Performance - September 2011
Share Price Performance




                            Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2011
Share Price Performance




                          Share Price Performance - Since 31 December 2010
Share Price Performance




8
OCTOBER 2011



diversified - secTor performance                    indusTriaL mineraLs - secTor performance
                             Share Price Performance - September 2011
Share Price Performance




                                                 Share Price Performance




                            Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2011
Share Price Performance




                                                 Share Price Performance




                          Share Price Performance - Since 31 December 2010
Share Price Performance




                                                 Share Price Performance




                                                                                            9
Group 150
GoLd - secTor performance
                                    Share Price Performance - September 2011
Share Price Performance




                                   Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2011
Share Price Performance




                                 Share Price Performance - Since 31 December 2010
                          115%
Share Price Performance




10
OCTOBER 2011



iron ore - secTor performance
                             Share Price Performance - September 2011
Share Price Performance




                            Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2011
Share Price Performance




                          Share Price Performance - Since 31 December 2010
Share Price Performance




                                                                                            11
Group 150
pLaTinum - secTor performance                       uranium - secTor performance
                             Share Price Performance - September 2011
Share Price Performance




                                                 Share Price Performance




                            Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2011
Share Price Performance




                                                 Share Price Performance




                          Share Price Performance - Since 31 December 2010
Share Price Performance




                                                 Share Price Performance




12
OCTOBER 2011



consensus commodiTy price forecasTs - sepTember
Gold (US$/oz)                                                                   Silver (US$/OZ)
   $3,000                                                                       $60
   $2,500                                                                       $50                 $39.55    $37.50
                                  $1,782                               $1,634                                                     $32.74
   $2,000         $1,624                          $1,600      $1,550            $40      $29.93                         $30.00
   $1,500                                                                       $30
   $1,000                                                                       $20
      $500                                                                      $10
         $0                                                                      $0
                    Spot           2012            2013       2014     2015              Spot       2012      2013      2014       2015

Copper (US$/lb)                                                                 Nickel (US$/lb)
   $6.00                                                                        $16.00
   $5.00                          $4.24           $3.97                                              $10.63    $10.81    $10.90
                                                              $3.86                                                                $9.98
                                                                       $3.42    $12.00
   $4.00          $3.18                                                                     $7.98
   $3.00                                                                         $8.00
   $2.00
                                                                                 $4.00
   $1.00
   $0.00                                                                         $0.00
                  Spot            2012             2013       2014     2015                 Spot      2012      2013     2014      2015

Zinc (US$/lb)                                                                   Lead (US$/lb)
   $1.50                                                                        $1.50                          $1.23
                                                  $1.16                                              $1.18               $1.18
                                  $1.07                       $1.09
                                                                       $0.97                                                       $1.00
                  $0.84                                                                    $0.90
   $1.00                                                                        $1.00


   $0.50                                                                        $0.50


   $0.00                                                                        $0.00
                  Spot            2012             2013       2014     2015                Spot      2012      2013      2014      2015

Tin (US$/lb)                                                                    Uranium (US$/lb)
   $20.00                                                                       $100
   $17.50                                                                                                     $70.00    $75.00
                                  $13.24                                                            $64.50
   $15.00                                         $10.89                         $75
                                                                                         $53.00                                   $50.00
   $12.50          $9.23
   $10.00                                                                        $50
    $7.50
    $5.00                                                                        $25
    $2.50                                                     $0.00
    $0.00                                                                         $0
                    Spot           2012            2013       2014     2015               Spot       2012      2013      2014      2015

AUD:USD                                                                         NYMEX (US$/bbl)
   $1.25                          $1.00           $1.05                         $150
                  $0.97                                       $0.96    $0.97                                  $111.50   $114.00   $113.00
   $1.00                                                                                            $100.00
                                                                                $100     $79.20
   $0.75
   $0.50
                                                                                 $50
   $0.25
   $0.00                                                                          $0
                  Spot            2012             2013       2014     2015               Spot       2012      2013      2014      2015



Source: Bloomberg Consensus Estimates - Median / High / Low


                                                                                                                                            13
recenT resources TransacTions

      Group 150
      Mergers and Acquisitions
       Mergers and Acquisitions
                                            2010                                    2009

                                                                                                     GRAM
                                                                                                                           2009                                     2009                                   2008                                    2008                                    2006




                      Advised BHP                             Advised BG                          Advised Guandong                        Advised Allied Gold                       Advised Kalahari                         Advised Gem                           Advised IAMGOLD
                      Billiton on its                      Group on its $1bn                      Rising on its $216m                        on its $54m                             Minerals on its                        Diamonds on its                        Corporation on its
                     $204m offer for                       takeover offer for                         cornerstone                           acquisition of                         $140m proposed                          $300m acquisition                       $265m acquisition
                     United Minerals                          Pure Energy                          investment in Pan                          Australian                              merger with                            of Kimberley                           of Gallery Gold.
                      Corporation.                             Resources                                  Aust.                            Solomons Gold.                          Extract Resources.                          Diamonds.
                                                                Limited.




      TakeoverDefence
        Takeover Defence
                                            2010                                    2010                                   2010                                    2009                                     2009                                   2007                                    2007




                     Advised Polaris                        Advised Indophil                            Advised                            Advised Energy                           Advised Brandrill                       Advised Summit                       Advised Tethyan on
                      Metals NL on                              on $545m                               Centaurus                         Metals on its $86m                           Limited on its                        Resources on its                          its $220m
                     $178m takeover                          recommended                             Resources on its                   proportional takeover                        $45m takeover                         A$1.2bn takeover                      competing takeover
                     offer by Mineral                        offer from Zijin                         $20m merger                           offer by China                          offer by Ausdrill                      by Paladin Energy.                    offer by Crosby and
                        Resources                                                                    with Glengarry                      Guangdong Nuclear                               Limited.                                                                Antogafasta/Barrick.
                         Limited.                                                                      Resources.                           Power Group.




      Strategic Advisory, JointJoint Ventures and Capital Markets
        Strategic Advisory, Ventures and Capital Markets
                                            2010                                   2010                                     2009                                    2008                                2009/08                                    2008                                    2008




                       Advised BHP                             Introduced                              Advised BHP                               Advised                           Advised Iluka on its                          Advised                            Advised Iluka
                       Billiton on its                    Denham Capital to                           Billiton on the                           Bannerman                                $114m                             Murchison Metals                        Resources on its
                      US$116bn iron                          Trans Tasman                             disposal of the                        Resources on its                         institutional                        on its joint venture                   $54m Narama coal
                      ore production                      Resources resulting                         Yabulu Nickel                           financing with                         placement and                          with Mitsubishi.                        divestment to
                    joint venture with                     in NZ iron sands                               refinery.                          Resource Capital                      $353m accelerated                                                                   Xstrata.
                         Rio Tinto.                           investment.                                                                         Funds.                               right issue.




                                                                                                        Gresham Advisory Partners Limited
                                                                                                              A.B.N. 97 003 344 269

                      Level 17, 167 Macquarie Street,                                                                         Level 10, 1 Collins Street,                                                                      Level 3, 28 The Esplanade,
                                   Sydney NSW 2000                                                                                 Melbourne VIC 3000                                                                                      Perth WA 6000
                          Telephone: 61 2 9221 5133                                                                         Telephone: 61 3 9664 0300                                                                         Telephone: 61 8 9486 7077
                            Facsimile: 61 2 9221 6814                                                                         Facsimile: 61 3 9650 7722                                                                         Facsimile: 61 8 9486 7024

                                                                                                                Website: www.gresham.com.au

Terms and Conditions
Information contained in this publication
The opinions, advice, recommendations and other information contained in this publication, whether express or implied, are published or made by Gresham Advisory Partners Limited (ABN 88 093 611 413), Australian financial services license (247113), and by its officers and employees
(collectively “Gresham Advisory Partners”) in good faith in relation to the facts known to it at the time of preparation.
Gresham Advisory Partners has prepared this publication without consideration of the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any individual investor, and you should not rely on the publication for the purpose of making a financial decision.
To whom this information is provided
This publication is only made available to persons who are wholesale clients within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. This publication is supplied on the condition that it is not passed on to any person who is a retail client within the meaning of section 761G of the
Corporations Act 2001.
Disclaimer and limitation of liability
To the maximum extent permitted by law, Gresham Advisory Partners will not be liable in any way for any loss or damage suffered by you through use or reliance on this information. Gresham Advisory Partners’ liability for negligence, breach of contract or contravention of any law, which
cannot be lawfully excluded, is limited, at Gresham Advisory Partners’ option and to the maximum extent permitted by law, to resupplying this information or any part of it to you, or to paying for the resupply of this information or any part of it to you.
No warranties made as to content
Gresham Advisory Partners makes no warranty, express or implied, concerning this publication. The publication provided by us on an “AS IS” basis at your sole risk. Gresham Advisory Partners expressly disclaims, to the maximum extent permitted by law, any implied warranty of merchant-
ability or fitness for a particular purpose, including any warranty for the use or the results of the use of the publication with respect to its correctness, quality, accuracy, completeness, or reliability.
Copyright
Copyright in this publication is owned by Gresham Advisory Partners. You may use the information in this publication for your own personal use, but you must not (without Gresham Advisory Partners’ consent) alter, reproduce or distribute any part of this publication, transmit it to any other
person or incorporate the information into any other document.
General matters
These Terms and Conditions are governed by the law in force in the State of Victoria, and the parties irrevocably submit to the non-exclusive jurisdiction of the courts of Victoria and courts of appeal from them for determining any disputes concerning the Terms and Conditions.
If the whole or any part of a provision of these Terms and Conditions are void, unenforceable or illegal in a jurisdiction it is severed for that jurisdiction. The remainder of the Terms and Conditions have full force and effect and the validity or enforceability of that provision in any other jurisdiction
is not affected. This clause has no effect if the severance alters the basic nature of the Terms and Conditions or is contrary to public policy.
If Gresham Advisory Partners do not act in relation to a breach by you of these Terms and Conditions, this does not waive Gresham Advisory Partners’ right to act with respect to subsequent or similar breaches.
      14

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Gresham "Group 150" - October 2011

  • 1. OCTOBER 2011 Gresham Group 150 October 2011 Darren Martin Gresham Advisory Partners dmartin@gresham.com.au +61 8 9486 7077 +61 412 144 719 ASX RESOURCES - GROUP 150 We are pleased to present the October edition of ‘Gresham Group 150’, a ranking of the top 150 ASX listed resources companies (excluding oil and gas), by market capitalisation. September felt like another month at “ASX Casino” with only 18 companies recording a positive increment on their market value. The Gresham Group 150 lost $72.5 billion or 14.2% during the month, with the cumulative market value falling from $509.8 billion to $437.3 billion, a level not seen while we have been compiling the Group 150. At the end of the first week of October, approximately $33 billion had been recaptured with the cumulative market value climbing back to $470 billion. The entry threshold for September’s list fell dramatically to $96.6 million, down from $111.2 million last month. The ASX/ S&P 200 Resources Index decreased 13.4%, while the ASX All Ordinaries and ASX/S&P 200 Index decreased 6.9% and 6.7% respectively. Given the turmoil in the market in recent months, we reviewed the thesis from the March 2011 edition, “cash is king and debt is bad”. Utilising the recent 30 June balance sheets, we updated the market gearing levels for the Gresham Group 150 to identify any stretched balance sheets or dramatic changes in gearing levels. The updated study found that consistent with previous findings, approximately 80% of companies still remain in a net cash position and the weighted average gearing level has decreased marginally to circa 1.1% (versus 2.6% at March 2011), when measured on a net cash to enterprise value basis. During the relevant period the market value of the Gresham Group 150 has declined 28% from $605.4 billion at end of February to $437.3 billion at 30 September 2011 and cash reserves have decreased by $9.2 billion from $42.7 billion to $33.5 billion while total debt has increased $4.8 billion from $40.9 billion to $45.7 billion. Returns at “ASX Casino” in October will be interesting. Having witnessed a couple of spins of the wheel from the US Federal Reserve in response to rapidly deteriorating economic and financial conditions, it now appears the leaders of Germany and France are going to have a spin and unveil a comprehensive package to recapitalise the European banks by the end of October. Early indications (given market commentary around a possible offer for Extract) suggest the uranium sector may hit the Jackpot! Gresham Advisory Partners Limited Gresham Advisory Partners is a leading Australian mergers and acquisitions/corporate advisory Edition 19 business and one of Australia’s largest and highest ranking independent corporate advisors. 1
  • 2. Group 150 Top 150 asX LisTed resource companies - sepTember By Market Capitalisation Mkt Cap (A$m) % Mkt Cap (A$m) % Sep Aug Company 30-Sep-11 31-Aug-11 Change Sep Aug Company 30-Sep-11 31-Aug-11 Change 1 1 BHP Billiton Ltd. (ASX:BHP) $186,464.7 $211,605.9 (11.9%) 51 60 Gold One International Limited (ASX:GDO) $432.8 $428.8 0.9% 2 2 Rio Tinto Ltd. (ASX:RIO) $117,238.1 $138,406.7 (15.3%) 52 77 Hunnu Coal Limited (ASX:HUN) $418.0 $318.7 31.2% 3 3 Newcrest Mining Ltd. (ASX:NCM) $26,051.2 $30,791.3 (15.4%) 53 57 Ramelius Resources Ltd. (ASX:RMS) $413.2 $445.1 (7.2%) 4 4 Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. (ASX:FMG) $13,763.0 $18,836.7 (26.9%) 54 54 Guildford Coal Limited (ASX:GUF) $411.3 $480.1 (14.3%) 5 5 Coal & Allied Industries Ltd. (ASX:CNA) $10,675.0 $10,667.2 0.1% 55 55 Integra Mining Ltd. (ASX:IGR) $396.6 $472.4 (16.0%) 6 6 Iluka Resources Ltd. (ASX:ILU) $5,216.8 $6,830.7 (23.6%) 56 52 Gryphon Minerals Ltd. (ASX:GRY) $390.2 $517.4 (24.6%) 7 7 MacArthur Coal Ltd. (ASX:MCC) $4,809.3 $4,800.2 0.2% 57 91 Mineral Deposits Ltd. (ASX:MDL) $389.5 $362.9 7.4% 8 9 New Hope Corp. Ltd. (ASX:NHC) $4,474.9 $4,217.6 6.1% 58 62 Ampella Mining Limited (ASX:AMX) $389.5 $406.9 (4.3%) 9 8 Alumina Ltd. (ASX:AWC) $3,611.5 $4,294.7 (15.9%) 59 58 Cockatoo Coal Limited (ASX:COK) $386.2 $431.9 (10.6%) 10 10 OZ Minerals Limited (ASX:OZL) $2,983.1 $3,785.1 (21.2%) 60 73 Saracen Mineral Holdings Limited (ASX:SAR) $384.9 $356.8 7.9% 11 13 Whitehaven Coal Limited (ASX:WHC) $2,635.5 $2,961.9 (11.0%) 61 61 Summit Resources Ltd. (ASX:SMM) $381.5 $413.1 (7.7%) 12 11 Atlas Iron Limited (ASX:AGO) $2,526.7 $3,217.7 (21.5%) 62 66 Troy Resources NL (ASX:TRY) $362.6 $393.4 (7.8%) 13 15 Aston Resources Limited (ASX:AZT) $2,057.5 $2,384.8 (13.7%) 63 70 Bougainville Copper Ltd. (ASX:BOC) $354.9 $363.0 (2.2%) 14 17 Extract Resources Ltd. (ASX:EXT) $1,916.3 $2,024.3 (5.3%) 64 50 Bandanna Energy Limited (ASX:BND) $347.8 $521.7 (33.3%) 15 12 Lynas Corporation Limited (ASX:LYC) $1,868.1 $3,102.1 (39.8%) 65 67 Kingsrose Mining Limited (ASX:KRM) $327.3 $387.0 (15.4%) 16 14 Aquila Resources Ltd. (ASX:AQA) $1,864.4 $2,396.0 (22.2%) 66 69 Indophil Resources NL (ASX:IRN) $318.5 $363.3 (12.3%) 17 16 PanAust Limited (ASX:PNA) $1,508.4 $2,161.7 (30.2%) 67 80 WPG Resources Ltd (ASX:WPG) $316.9 $299.8 5.7% 18 18 Mount Gibson Iron Ltd. (ASX:MGX) $1,450.6 $1,802.5 (19.5%) 68 51 Alkane Resources Limited (ASX:ALK) $306.7 $517.9 (40.8%) 19 19 Aquarius Platinum Ltd. (ASX:AQP) $1,388.0 $1,796.0 (22.7%) 69 75 Metals X Limited (ASX:MLX) $301.6 $323.8 (6.8%) 20 20 Gloucester Coal Ltd. (ASX:GCL) $1,369.6 $1,795.7 (23.7%) 70 63 OM Holdings Limited (ASX:OMH) $298.7 $406.7 (26.5%) 21 22 Perseus Mining Ltd. (ASX:PRU) $1,301.5 $1,532.4 (15.1%) 71 81 Adamus Resources Ltd. (ASX:ADU) $292.9 $292.9 0.0% 22 23 Medusa Mining Limited (ASX:MML) $1,285.9 $1,515.3 (15.1%) 72 74 Noble Mineral Resources Ltd. (ASX:NMG) $292.3 $324.5 (9.9%) 23 24 Sundance Resources Ltd. (ASX:SDL) $1,245.4 $1,371.6 (9.2%) 73 82 Tiger Resources Ltd. (ASX:TGS) $291.9 $291.9 0.0% 24 25 Regis Resources Limited (ASX:RRL) $1,132.4 $1,269.5 (10.8%) 74 59 Kagara Ltd (ASX:KZL) $287.2 $430.8 (33.3%) 25 27 Zimplats Holdings Ltd. (ASX:ZIM) $1,027.9 $1,184.0 (13.2%) 75 65 FerrAus Ltd. (ASX:FRS) $286.2 $394.6 (27.5%) 26 31 Minara Resources Ltd. (ASX:MRE) $1,023.2 $1,023.2 0.0% 76 86 Catalpa Resources Limited (ASX:CAH) $277.3 $276.2 0.4% 27 26 Kingsgate Consolidated Limited (ASX:KCN) $998.3 $1,235.1 (19.2%) 77 76 Equatorial Resources Limited (ASX:EQX) $275.8 $322.2 (14.4%) 28 21 Paladin Energy, Ltd. (ASX:PDN) $944.4 $1,632.4 (42.1%) 78 68 Aditya Birla Minerals Limited (ASX:ABY) $272.6 $380.7 (28.4%) 29 29 Sandfire Resources (ASX:SFR) $912.8 $1,101.9 (17.2%) 79 64 Brockman Resources Limited (ASX:BRM) $270.9 $404.9 (33.1%) 30 28 Independence Group NL (ASX:IGO) $876.6 $1,109.9 (21.0%) 80 87 Conquest Mining Limited (ASX:CQT) $265.4 $271.2 (2.2%) 31 33 CGA Mining Limited (ASX:CGX) $833.7 $870.4 (4.2%) 81 89 Tanami Gold NL (ASX:TAM) $263.6 $270.1 (2.4%) 32 32 Coalspur Mines Limited (ASX:CPL) $800.1 $988.5 (19.1%) 82 72 Metminco Limited. (ASX:MNC) $263.3 $358.3 (26.5%) 33 30 Western Areas NL (ASX:WSA) $776.5 $1,056.8 (26.5%) 83 71 Panoramic Resources Ltd. (ASX:PAN) $262.3 $361.4 (27.4%) 34 37 Resolute Mining Ltd. (ASX:RSG) $710.6 $760.2 (6.5%) 84 84 Focus Minerals Limited (ASX:FML) $261.9 $284.0 (7.8%) 35 39 ST Barbara Ltd. (ASX:SBM) $667.5 $674.0 (1.0%) 85 92 Northern Energy Corporation Ltd (ASX:NEC) $261.3 $261.3 0.0% 36 34 Mirabela Nickel Ltd. (ASX:MBN) $661.4 $816.4 (19.0%) 86 78 Perilya Ltd. (ASX:PEM) $246.9 $312.6 (21.0%) 37 44 Discovery Metals Ltd. (ASX:DML) $577.5 $605.4 (4.6%) 87 83 Aspire Mining Limited (ASX:AKM) $246.0 $286.5 (14.2%) 38 36 Energy Resources of Australia Ltd. (ASX:ERA) $557.0 $768.7 (27.5%) 88 79 Cape Lambert Resources Limited (ASX:CFE) $234.7 $305.9 (23.3%) 39 38 Gindalbie Metals Ltd. (ASX:GBG) $547.2 $722.1 (24.2%) 89 113 Nucoal Resources NL (ASX:NCR) $227.8 $181.1 25.8% 40 49 Kangaroo Resources Limited (ASX:KRL) $532.3 $532.3 0.0% 90 100 Flinders Mines Limited. (ASX:FMS) $227.6 $227.6 0.0% 41 48 Sphere Minerals Limited (ASX:SPH) $529.5 $540.1 (2.0%) 91 90 Straits Resources Limited (ASX:SRQ) $227.4 $266.3 (14.6%) 42 40 Ivanhoe Australia Limited (ASX:IVA) $529.2 $665.8 (20.5%) 92 95 BC Iron Limited (ASX:BCI) $224.9 $246.7 (8.8%) 43 42 Jupiter Mines Ltd. (ASX:JMS) $501.5 $647.9 (22.6%) 93 102 Exco Resources Ltd. (ASX:EXS) $223.2 $224.0 (0.4%) 44 35 Intrepid Mines Limited (ASX:IAU) $485.8 $799.1 (39.2%) 94 93 Red 5 Ltd. (ASX:RED) $218.2 $256.7 (15.0%) 45 46 Beadell Resources Ltd (ASX:BDR) $477.0 $562.5 (15.2%) 95 94 Gujarat NRE Coking Coal Limited (ASX:GNM) $218.1 $247.7 (12.0%) 46 53 Northern Iron Limited (ASX:NFE) $470.5 $487.3 (3.4%) 96 98 Arafura Resources Limited (ASX:ARU) $209.7 $233.7 (10.2%) 47 43 White Energy Company Limited (ASX:WEC) $467.8 $629.0 (25.6%) 97 107 South Boulder Mines Ltd. (ASX:STB) $204.8 $203.9 0.5% 48 56 Silver Lake Resources Limited (ASX:SLR) $464.5 $465.1 (0.1%) 98 99 Greenland Minerals and Energy Ltd (ASX:GGG) $201.1 $231.9 (13.3%) 49 45 Grange Resources Limited (ASX:GRR) $461.4 $594.1 (22.3%) 99 97 Galaxy Resources (ASX:GXY) $195.6 $242.5 (19.3%) 50 41 Bathurst Resources Ltd (ASX:BTU) $437.0 $657.3 (33.5%) 100 101 Marengo Mining Limited (ASX:MGO) $195.5 $225.5 (13.3%) Includes ASX Resource companies excluding oil and gas 2
  • 3. OCTOBER 2011 Mkt Cap (A$m) % Mkt Cap (A$m) % Sep Aug Company 30-Sep-11 31-Aug-11 Change Sep Aug Company 30-Sep-11 31-Aug-11 Change 101 85 Rex Minerals Limited. (ASX:RXM) $186.7 $280.4 (33.4%) 126 133 Crusader Resources Limited (ASX:CAS) $121.2 $138.2 (12.4%) 102 112 Astron Ltd. (ASX:ATR) $185.1 $186.6 (0.8%) 127 118 Orocobre Limited (ASX:ORE) $114.5 $171.3 (33.1%) 103 105 Hillgrove Resources Ltd. (ASX:HGO) $178.6 $210.3 (15.1%) 128 134 Alcyone Resources Ltd (ASX:AYN) $114.5 $138.2 (17.1%) 104 164 Base Resources Limited (ASX:BSE) $175.0 $95.1 84.0% 129 129 Altona Mining Limited (ASX:AOH) $114.1 $145.2 (21.4%) 105 108 Northern Star Resources Ltd. (ASX:NST) $174.5 $198.1 (11.9%) 130 144 Finders Resources Limited (ASX:FND) $111.8 $118.8 (5.9%) 106 106 Iron Ore Holdings Limited (ASX:IOH) $166.1 $205.9 (19.4%) 131 158 Papillon Resources Limited (ASX:PIR) $110.7 $101.4 9.2% 107 109 Atlantic Ltd (ASX:ATI) $165.7 $193.8 (14.5%) 132 127 YTC Resources Limited (ASX:YTC) $110.7 $146.7 (24.6%) 108 110 Kula Gold Limited (ASX:KGD) $163.3 $191.4 (14.7%) 133 124 NKWE Platinum Ltd. (ASX:NKP) $109.0 $152.5 (28.6%) 109 120 Norton Gold Fields Limited (ASX:NGF) $161.4 $160.6 0.5% 134 131 African Energy Resources Limited (ASX:AFR) $107.7 $142.0 (24.1%) 110 104 Cokal Limited (ASX:CKA) $158.8 $217.6 (27.0%) 135 128 Metrocoal Ltd. (ASX:MTE) $107.1 $146.7 (27.0%) 111 117 Ausgold Limited (ASX:AUC) $154.4 $172.7 (10.6%) 136 125 African Iron Limited (ASX:AKI) $105.4 $151.0 (30.2%) 112 103 Moly Mines Ltd. (ASX:MOL) $154.0 $219.4 (29.8%) 137 168 Ironbark Zinc Ltd. (ASX:IBG) $105.0 $92.1 14.0% 113 122 Blackgold International Hold. Ltd (ASX:BGG) $153.0 $157.5 (2.9%) 138 132 Cerro Resources NL (ASX:CJO) $104.8 $140.1 (25.2%) 114 135 Azimuth Resources Limited (ASX:AZH) $148.2 $136.4 8.6% 139 138 Reed Resources Ltd. (ASX:RDR) $103.2 $124.4 (17.0%) 115 115 Highlands Pacific Limited (ASX:HIG) $147.3 $178.4 (17.4%) 140 151 Rocklands Richfield Limited (ASX:RCI) $102.7 $109.9 (6.6%) 116 96 Carabella Resources Limited (ASX:CLR) $147.2 $245.4 (40.0%) 141 140 Peninsula Energy Limited (ASX:PEN) $102.5 $121.1 (15.3%) 117 88 Murchison Metals Limited (ASX:MMX) $146.5 $271.2 (46.0%) 142 137 Sylvania Resources Ltd. (ASX:SLP) $102.4 $128.0 (20.0%) 118 114 Deep Yellow Ltd. (ASX:DYL) $141.1 $180.6 (21.9%) 143 123 Resource Generation Limited (ASX:RES) $101.9 $154.7 (34.2%) 119 116 Mincor Resources NL (ASX:MCR) $136.4 $176.2 (22.6%) 144 152 Mungana Goldmines Ltd (ASX:MUX) $101.7 $109.5 (7.2%) 120 126 ABM Resources NL (ASX:ABU) $133.4 $146.7 (9.1%) 145 130 Azumah Resources Ltd (ASX:AZM) $101.5 $142.2 (28.6%) 121 121 Cobar Consolidated Resources Ltd (ASX:CCU) $129.4 $160.0 (19.1%) 146 136 Indo Mines Limited (ASX:IDO) $101.1 $128.7 (21.4%) 122 163 Australasian Resources Ltd (ASX:ARH) $128.5 $96.4 33.3% 147 153 Kentor Gold Limited (ASX:KGL) $99.8 $105.1 (5.0%) 123 141 Tribune Resources Limited (ASX:TBR) $125.8 $120.7 4.2% 148 139 Robust Resources Limited (ASX:ROL) $99.0 $122.3 (19.1%) 124 111 Gold Road Resources Limited (ASX:GOR) $125.2 $190.3 (34.2%) 149 159 Centrex Metals Limited (ASX:CXM) $98.8 $100.4 (1.6%) 125 119 Tigers Realm Coal Limited (ASX:TIG) $121.9 $163.8 (25.6%) 150 143 Dragon Mining Limited (ASX:DRA) $96.6 $119.5 (19.2%) Source: Capital IQ new enTranTs - sepTember eXiTs - sepTember 104 Base Resources Limited (ASX:BSE) CuDeco Ltd. (ASX:CDU) - currently suspended 122 Australasian Resources Ltd (ASX:ARH) Industrial Minerals Corporation Ltd. (ASX:IDM) 131 Papillon Resources Limited (ASX:PIR) Northern Minerals Limited (ASX:NTU) 137 Ironbark Zinc Ltd. (ASX:IBG) IMX Resources Ltd. (ASX:IXR) 140 Rocklands Richfield Limited (ASX:RCI) Stanmore Coal Limited (ASX:SMR) 144 Mungana Goldmines Ltd (ASX:MUX) Continental Coal Limited (ASX:CCC) 147 Kentor Gold Limited (ASX:KGL) Iron Road Limited (ASX:IRD) 149 Centrex Metals Limited (ASX:CXM) Resource and Investment NL (ASX:RNI) Based on market capitalisation as at 30 September vs 31 August Group 150 Leaders and LaGGers - markeT capiTaLisaTion performance - sepTember Leaders Laggers * Included material placement, acquisition and/or option conversion during month 3
  • 4. Group 150 Group 150 markeT capiTaLisaTion -6.4% 437.3 +21.5% Market Valuation (A$b) - Group 150 asX indeX performance - sepTember Group 150 mkT cap - by commodiTy merGer & acquisiTions - announced in sepTember Percent Premium - Premium - Date Value Consideration Target Acquirer Sought 1 Day Prior 1 Month Prior Announced (A$m) Offered (%) (%) (%) 29-Sep-2011 Anvil Mining Limited (TSX:AVM) Minmetals Resources Limited (SEHK:1208) 1,282.0 100 38.2 34.7 Cash Iron Ore Holdings Limited, Koodaideri South 27-Sep-2011 Hamersley Iron Pty Ltd 32.0 100 - - Cash Tenement 20-Sep-2011 Mbila Resources (Pty) Limited ZYL Limited (ASX:ZYL) 26.1 44 - - Combinations 12-Sep-2011 Hunnu Coal Limited (ASX:HUN) Banpu Minerals (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. 420.2 88 30.0 45.8 Cash 9-Sep-2011 Pinnacle Group Assets Limited Cape Lambert Resources Limited (ASX:CFE) 15.0 10 - - Combinations Source: Capital IQ Announced Australian Resources (excluding oil and gas) Mergers and Acquisitions >A$10m 4
  • 5. OCTOBER 2011 capiTaL sTucTure - GearinG LeveLs Changing gearing levels in a falling market In the March 2011 edition, we reviewed the thesis “cash is king and debt is bad” based on the net cash position of the Gresham Group 150 utilising market values at end of February adjusted for 31 December 2010 balance sheets. Given the uncertainty in the markets in recent months, the analysis has been updated to account for the net cash position at 30 June 2011. During this time the market value of the Gresham Group 150 has declined 28% from $605.4 billion to $437.3 billion at 30 September 2011 and cash reserves have decreased by $9.2 billion from $42.7 billion to $33.5 billion while total debt has increased $4.8 billion from $40.9 billion to $45.7 billion. The study found that approximately 80% of companies still remain in a net cash position, consistent with previous findings, but the weighted average gearing level has decreased marginally to circa 1.1% (versus 2.6% at March 2011), when measured on a net cash to enterprise value basis. In a change from March, the companies with overseas focussed operations are in a stronger net cash position than peers with domestic focussed operations – refer next page. Below is a summary of the gearing levels of the Gresham Group 150. Gearing (Net Debt /Enterprise Value) Group 150 Mining Companies – by Market Capitalisation NET DEBT Net Debt / Enterprise Value NET CASH 80% in net cash position Source: Capital IQ Based on Net Debt at 30 June 2011 5
  • 6. Group 150 capiTaL sTucTure - GearinG LeveLs Net Debt /Enterprise Value Group 150 Mining Companies – by Market Capitalisation NET DEBT NET CASH Source: Capital IQ 6
  • 7. OCTOBER 2011 base meTaLs - secTor performance Share Price Performance - September 2011 Copper Nickel Zinc Share Price Performance Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2011 Share Price Performance Share Price Performance - Since 31 December 2010 50% 25% 11.4% Share Price Performance 2.6% 0% -5.0% -7.4% -7.9% -13.9% -25% -20.3% -22.4% -25.4% -27.6% Average - (13%) -35.1% -37.7% Average - (16%) -40.6%-42.9% -41.0% -50% -45.7% -47.6% -50.0% -51.3% -50.6% -55.6% -53.7% -58.5% Average - (41%) -63.9% -63.1% -75% 7
  • 8. Group 150 coaL - secTor performance Share Price Performance - September 2011 Share Price Performance Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2011 Share Price Performance Share Price Performance - Since 31 December 2010 Share Price Performance 8
  • 9. OCTOBER 2011 diversified - secTor performance indusTriaL mineraLs - secTor performance Share Price Performance - September 2011 Share Price Performance Share Price Performance Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2011 Share Price Performance Share Price Performance Share Price Performance - Since 31 December 2010 Share Price Performance Share Price Performance 9
  • 10. Group 150 GoLd - secTor performance Share Price Performance - September 2011 Share Price Performance Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2011 Share Price Performance Share Price Performance - Since 31 December 2010 115% Share Price Performance 10
  • 11. OCTOBER 2011 iron ore - secTor performance Share Price Performance - September 2011 Share Price Performance Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2011 Share Price Performance Share Price Performance - Since 31 December 2010 Share Price Performance 11
  • 12. Group 150 pLaTinum - secTor performance uranium - secTor performance Share Price Performance - September 2011 Share Price Performance Share Price Performance Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2011 Share Price Performance Share Price Performance Share Price Performance - Since 31 December 2010 Share Price Performance Share Price Performance 12
  • 13. OCTOBER 2011 consensus commodiTy price forecasTs - sepTember Gold (US$/oz) Silver (US$/OZ) $3,000 $60 $2,500 $50 $39.55 $37.50 $1,782 $1,634 $32.74 $2,000 $1,624 $1,600 $1,550 $40 $29.93 $30.00 $1,500 $30 $1,000 $20 $500 $10 $0 $0 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015 Copper (US$/lb) Nickel (US$/lb) $6.00 $16.00 $5.00 $4.24 $3.97 $10.63 $10.81 $10.90 $3.86 $9.98 $3.42 $12.00 $4.00 $3.18 $7.98 $3.00 $8.00 $2.00 $4.00 $1.00 $0.00 $0.00 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015 Zinc (US$/lb) Lead (US$/lb) $1.50 $1.50 $1.23 $1.16 $1.18 $1.18 $1.07 $1.09 $0.97 $1.00 $0.84 $0.90 $1.00 $1.00 $0.50 $0.50 $0.00 $0.00 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015 Tin (US$/lb) Uranium (US$/lb) $20.00 $100 $17.50 $70.00 $75.00 $13.24 $64.50 $15.00 $10.89 $75 $53.00 $50.00 $12.50 $9.23 $10.00 $50 $7.50 $5.00 $25 $2.50 $0.00 $0.00 $0 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015 AUD:USD NYMEX (US$/bbl) $1.25 $1.00 $1.05 $150 $0.97 $0.96 $0.97 $111.50 $114.00 $113.00 $1.00 $100.00 $100 $79.20 $0.75 $0.50 $50 $0.25 $0.00 $0 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Bloomberg Consensus Estimates - Median / High / Low 13
  • 14. recenT resources TransacTions Group 150 Mergers and Acquisitions Mergers and Acquisitions 2010 2009 GRAM 2009 2009 2008 2008 2006 Advised BHP Advised BG Advised Guandong Advised Allied Gold Advised Kalahari Advised Gem Advised IAMGOLD Billiton on its Group on its $1bn Rising on its $216m on its $54m Minerals on its Diamonds on its Corporation on its $204m offer for takeover offer for cornerstone acquisition of $140m proposed $300m acquisition $265m acquisition United Minerals Pure Energy investment in Pan Australian merger with of Kimberley of Gallery Gold. Corporation. Resources Aust. Solomons Gold. Extract Resources. Diamonds. Limited. TakeoverDefence Takeover Defence 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2007 2007 Advised Polaris Advised Indophil Advised Advised Energy Advised Brandrill Advised Summit Advised Tethyan on Metals NL on on $545m Centaurus Metals on its $86m Limited on its Resources on its its $220m $178m takeover recommended Resources on its proportional takeover $45m takeover A$1.2bn takeover competing takeover offer by Mineral offer from Zijin $20m merger offer by China offer by Ausdrill by Paladin Energy. offer by Crosby and Resources with Glengarry Guangdong Nuclear Limited. Antogafasta/Barrick. Limited. Resources. Power Group. Strategic Advisory, JointJoint Ventures and Capital Markets Strategic Advisory, Ventures and Capital Markets 2010 2010 2009 2008 2009/08 2008 2008 Advised BHP Introduced Advised BHP Advised Advised Iluka on its Advised Advised Iluka Billiton on its Denham Capital to Billiton on the Bannerman $114m Murchison Metals Resources on its US$116bn iron Trans Tasman disposal of the Resources on its institutional on its joint venture $54m Narama coal ore production Resources resulting Yabulu Nickel financing with placement and with Mitsubishi. divestment to joint venture with in NZ iron sands refinery. Resource Capital $353m accelerated Xstrata. Rio Tinto. investment. Funds. right issue. 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