Global Scenario On Sustainable and Resilient Coconut Industry by Dr. Jelfina...
Gresham "Group 150" - November 2010
1. NOVEMBER 2010
1
ASX RESOURCES - GROUP 150
We are pleased to present the November edition of‘Group 150’, a ranking of the top 150 ASX listed resources companies
(excluding oil and gas), by market capitalisation.
The market value of the Group 150 at the end of September was $545 billion, up 7.6% from September and an incredible
56.9% increase from $360 billion since 30 June 2009. The entry point into the Group 150 for October was $103 million
versus $95 million for September. The ASX/S&P 200 Resources Index rose 5.1% in the month, while the ASX All Ordinaries
and ASX/S&P 200 Index increased 2.1% and 1.7% respectively.
During October we witnessed a resurrection in resource sector M&A, with a special shine on copper. Activity involving the
“bellwether metal”included Equinox’s offer for Citadel, Kingsgate’s offer for Laguna, Perilya’s offer for GlobeStar Mining and
Kagara’s offer for Copper Strike, as well as Sandfire and LS-Nikko mutually agreeing to terminate the heads of agreement.
While both primary and secondary copper supply remains constrained, we would not be surprised to see this level of M&A
activity continue. In this edition of the Group 150 we provide an overview of the relative market rating of the ASX listed
copper peers using Enterprise Value/lb of copper resource, adjusted for the cost of near term “committed” development
expenditure.
Market fundamentals remain strong with China currently consuming ~40% of the world’s copper production while only
holding ~6% of the worlds reserves domestically which is likely to support prices at current, if not higher levels.
Copper finished the month at US$8,225/t, up 26% from US$6,515 at 30 June 2010. At these price levels, any sound
operating mine even a 4th quartile producer should be generating reasonable levels of cashflow.
While the MRRT remains a potential impost for the domestic resources sector, we have witnessed a resurgence of risk
capital returning to the sector with numerous miners having executed successful capital raisings in the past 2 months.
West African gold and companies with offshore coal projects have been the major beneficiaries of recent equity raisings.
During October both Paladin and Western Areas refinanced corporate bonds to extend the debt maturity profiles.
The average market value of domestic focussed companies since the proposed MRRT was announced has increased 55.5%
compared to international focussed peers increasing by 74.1%. Global diversified companies have increased in value by
nearly 100% during the same period.
Gresham Advisory Partners Limited
Group 150
November 2010
Edition 8
Darren Martin
Gresham Advisory Partners
dmartin@gresham.com.au
+61 8 9486 7077
+61 412 144 719
GreshamAdvisoryPartnersisaleadingAustralianmergersandacquisitions/corporateadvisory
business and one of Australia’s largest and highest ranking independent corporate advisors.
4. Group 150
4
Group 150 Sector Market Capitalisation - October
Merger & Acquisitions - Announced in October
Date
Announced
Target Acquirer
Value
(A$m)
Percent
Sought
(%)
Premium -
1 Day Prior
(%)
Premium -
1 Month Prior
(%)
Consideration
Offered
25-Oct-2010 Laguna Resources NL (ASX:LRC) Kingsgate Consolidated Ltd (ASX:KCN) 22.4 100 33.7 82.3 Equity
25-Oct-2010 Citadel Resource Group Ltd (ASX:CGG) Equinox Minerals Ltd. (ASX:EQN) 1,204.0 100 19.7 32.1 Combinations
20-Oct-2010 Dominion Mining Limited (ASX:DOM) Kingsgate Consolidated Ltd (ASX:KCN) 370.2 100 33.0 44.6 Equity
12-Oct-2010 Copper Strike Ltd. (ASX:CSE) Kagara Ltd (ASX:KZL) 14.2 99 15.8 37.5 Cash
8-Oct-2010 Northern Energy Corp Ltd (ASX:NEC) Arkdale Pty. Ltd. 183.2 95 34.5 70.5 Cash
Source:CapitalIQ
AnnouncedAustralianResources(excludingoilandgas)MergersandAcquisitions>A$10m
Group 150 Market Capitalisation ASX Index Performance - October
MarketCapitalisation(A$b)
5. NOVEMBER 2010
5
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Sep-1990 Jan-1994 May-1997 Sep-2000 Jan-2004 May-2007 Sep-2010 Jan-2014 May-2017 Sep-2020
Stockpiles(tonnes'000)
CopperPrice(USc/lb)
Copper (A) LME stockpiles Copper LME (Nominal) Foward Curve (USc/ln)
ForwardCurve
Copper – A Bellwether Metal
During October we witnessed a resurrection in resource sector M&A, with a particular special shine on copper. Activity in the sector
included Equinox’s offer for Citadel, Kingsgate’s offer for Laguna and Kagara’s offer for Copper Strike and Perilya’s offer for GlobeStar
Mining, as well as Sandfire and LS-Nikko mutually agreeing to terminate the heads of agreement. While both primary and secondary
copper supply remains constrained, we would not be surprised to see this level of M&A activity continue.
Copper finished the month at US$8,225/t, up 26% from US$6,515 at 30 June 2010. Global copper market fundamentals remain strong
with China currently consuming ~40% of the world’s copper production while only holding ~6% of the worlds reserves domestically.
Market commentators consider of the base metals, copper has the best fundamentals, with the markets forecast to move to a deficit
in CY2011 and hence support the copper price for the 1 - 2 years.
The charts below provide an overview of the copper market and relative market rating of the ASX listed copper peers.
Source:Gresham,CompanyReports
Source:IRESS,Companyreports.Tradingasat1November2010.NetDebt(forEnterpriseValuecalculation)takenasat30June2010withtheexceptionofAdityaBirlaMinerals(31March2010)andHillgrove(31July2010)
20 Year Relative Movements & Copper Forward Curve
Cu Resource (billion lb)
0
3
6
9
12
15
Indophil
Equinox
OZ
Marengo
PanAust
Anvil
AdityaBirla
Discovery
Altona
TigerRes
Rex
Citadel
Sandfire
Avalon
Havilah
Exco
Blackthorn
Straits
Cudeco
Hillgrove
CopperStrike
Venturex
Redbank
QLDMining
CuResource(billionlb)
30 19
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
Citadel
Sandfire
Straits
OZ
PanAust
Cudeco
CopperStrike
Exco
Redbank
Hillgrove
Venturex
Anvil
Equinox
Altona
QLDMining
Rex
Discovery
TigerRes
Avalon
Blackthorn
AdityaBirla
Havilah
Marengo
Indophil
EVA$/lb(Cu)
EV / lb of Cu Resource (A$/lb)
Additional bar represents
cost of near term“committed”
development expenditure
6. Group 150
6
Group 150 -“MRRT Impact”- Based on Project/s Location
Only148companiesinOctober,SeptemberandAugustdatasetasAstronResourcesandGuildfordCoalwerenewIPO’sduringtheperiod
Only149companiesinJulydatasetasGuildfordCoalwasnewIPO’s duringtheperiod
Monthly Performance Overseas Domestic
Overseas/
Domestic
Total
End of October
Spread of "Group 150" by Project/s Location 53 77 18 148
- Simple Average Return 74.1% 55.5% 99.5%
End of September
Spread of "Group 150" by Project/s Location 51 81 16 148
- Simple Average Return 49.1% 42.3% 27.3%
End of August
Spread of "Group 150" by Project/s Location 47 85 16 148
- Simple Average Return 14.1% 20.0% 13.7%
End of July
Spread of "Group 150" by Project/s Location 49 84 16 149
- Simple Average Return 7.6% 15.4% 14.3%
MarketCapitalisation-PerformanceSinceProposedMRRTAnnounced
While the MRRT remains a potential impost for the domestic resources sector, we have witnessed a resurgence of risk capital returning to the
resources sector. Numerous miners have executed successful capital raisings in the past 2 months as the risk appetite of investors has improved.
West African gold and companies with offshore coal projects have been the major beneficiaries of recent equity raisings. During October both
Paladin and Western Areas refinanced corporate bonds to extend the debt maturity profiles.
The average market value of domestic focussed companies since the proposed MRRT was announced has increased 55.5% compared to
international focussed peers increasing by 74.1%. Global diversified companies have increased in value by nearly 100% during the same period.
7. NOVEMBER 2010
7
Share Price Performance - October 2010
Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2010
Share Price Performance - Since 1 Jan 2010
Base Metals - Sector Performance
SharePricePerformanceSharePricePerformanceSharePricePerformance
Copper Nickel Zinc
8. Group 150
8
Share Price Performance - October 2010
Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2010
Share Price Performance - Since 1 Jan 2010
Coal - Sector Performance
SharePricePerformanceSharePricePerformanceSharePricePerformance
9. NOVEMBER 2010
9
Share Price Performance - October 2010
Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2010
Share Price Performance - Since 1 Jan 2010
Diversified - Sector Performance
SharePricePerformanceSharePricePerformanceSharePricePerformance
Industrial Minerals - Sector Performance
SharePricePerformanceSharePricePerformanceSharePricePerformance
10. Group 150
10
Share Price Performance - October 2010
Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2010
Share Price Performance - Since 1 Jan 2010
Gold - Sector Performance
SharePricePerformanceSharePricePerformanceSharePricePerformance
11. NOVEMBER 2010
11
Share Price Performance - October 2010
Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2010
Share Price Performance - Since 1 Jan 2010
Iron ore - Sector Performance
SharePricePerformanceSharePricePerformanceSharePricePerformance
12. Group 150
12
Share Price Performance - October 2010
Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2010
Share Price Performance - Since 1 Jan 2010
Uranium - Sector Performance
SharePricePerformanceSharePricePerformanceSharePricePerformance
14. Group 150
14
Gresham Advisory Partners Limited
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Level 17, 167 Macquarie Street,
Sydney NSW 2000
Telephone: 61 2 9221 5133
Facsimile: 61 2 9221 6814
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Melbourne VIC 3000
Telephone: 61 3 9664 0300
Facsimile: 61 3 9650 7722
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Telephone: 61 8 9486 7077
Facsimile: 61 8 9486 7024
Website: www.gresham.com.au
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Billiton on its
$204m offer for
United Minerals
Corporation.
Advised BG
Group on its $1bn
takeover offer for
Pure Energy
Resources
Limited.
Advised IAMGOLD
Corporation on its
$265m acquisition
of Gallery Gold.
Advised Gem
Diamonds on its
$300m acquisition
of Kimberley
Diamonds.
Advised Polaris
Metals NL on
$178m takeover
offer by Mineral
Resources
Limited.
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its $220m
competing takeover
offer by Crosby and
Antogafasta/Barrick.
Advised Iluka on its
$114m
institutional
placement and
$353m accelerated
right issue.
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Bannerman
Resources on its
financing with
Resource Capital
Funds.
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Resources on its
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divestment to
Xstrata.
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Murchison Metals
on its joint venture
with Mitsubishi.
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2010
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Billiton on its
US$116bn iron
ore production
joint venture with
Rio Tinto.
2010
Introduced
Denham Capital to
Trans Tasman
Resources resulting
in NZ iron sands
investment.
2010
2009
Advised Indophil
on $545m
recommended
offer from Zijin
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Billiton on the
disposal of the
Yabulu Nickel
refinery.
2009
Advised Allied Gold
on its $54m
acquisition of
Australian
Solomons Gold.
2009
Advised Brandrill
Limited on its
$45m takeover
offer by Ausdrill
Limited.
2009
2008
Advised Kalahari
Minerals on its
$140m proposed
merger with
Extract Resources.
2008
Advised
Centaurus
Resources on its
$20m merger
with Glengarry
Resources.
2010
2009/08
2008
Advised Summit
Resources on its
A$1.2bn takeover
by Paladin Energy.
2007
2008
2006
2007
2008
Advised Guandong
Rising on its $216m
cornerstone
investment in Pan
Aust.
GRAM
2009
Advised Energy
Metals on its $86m
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offer by China
Guangdong Nuclear
Power Group.
2009
MergersandAcquisitions
TakeoverDefence
StrategicAdvisory,JointVenturesandCapitalMarkets
Recent Resources Transactions
Takeover Defence
Strategic Advisory, Joint Ventures and Capital Markets
Mergers and Acquisitions