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Copyright
DKParker, LLC
2016
10 Business Models (+3 that can fail)
Dave Parker
@DaveParkerSEA
www.dkparker.com/blog
Dave@dkparker.com
http://AddSlideShare
Copyright
DKParker, LLC
2016
Agenda
 About Dave
Methods – Marketing, Sales
& Pricing
 10 Business Models
 3 that can fail
 Financial Models
 Q&A – Your ideas
Copyright
DKParker, LLC
2016
About Dave
 5X founder, Board Member and (former) VC, SVP Programs at
UP Global (Startup Weekend + Startup America)
 CEO – Code Fellows, code school based in Seattle
 Husband, Dad & Husky
 Startup Week Lead Organizer Nov 14-18 – 150 FREE events
Copyright
DKParker, LLC
2016
Context Matters
Copyright
DKParker, LLC
2016
Three Methods + Two Models
 Marketing Methods – how you get customers to FIND you
 Sales Methods – how you SELL your product.
 Pricing Methods – how to price your product
 Business Models – are the way to monetize, including key
metrics
 Financial Models – include revenue and expenses. Used for
both forecast and actual results
Copyright
DKParker, LLC
2016
Marketing & Sales Terms
The following apply regardless of business models
 Cost of Customer Acquisition (CAC)
 Lifetime value of Customer (LTV)
 12 month calculation (36 for mature businesses)
 LTV:CAC Ratio >5X
 Time to close sale
 How does this change with product/market maturity?
 Churn/Retention
Copyright
DKParker, LLC
2016
Marketing Channels and Metrics
What are your core assumptions for marketing?
 Track all Marketing by channel and $$ spend
 Paid, SEO, etc.
 Cost to create leads (traffic)
 Cost (effort) and % convert to prospects
 Cost (effort) and % convert to customers
Copyright
DKParker, LLC
2016
OrganicSearch
PaidSearch
WordofMouth
SalesCalls
PR
Miracles!
Copyright
DKParker, LLC
2016
Sales Methods
 Web Direct – Advertising and conversion based sales, sales
support?, requires customers to search and find
 Direct – internal sales people (Inside or Outside), # of
deals/Month, salary + commissions
 Distribution/Channel Sales – Indirect or external, <# of
deals/Month, no Salary, just commission <Mindshare. Fulfill
demand, don’t create demand
 White Label Sales/Licensing – infrastructure or license sales,
long sales cycle, few but targeted customers
 Retail – Product on shelves - N/A
Copyright
DKParker, LLC
2016
Known
Market
Unknown
Market
Low Price
Point
High Price
Point
Known Search
Words
Unknown
Search
words
Web Direct ✔ ✔ ✔
Direct ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
Indirect ✔ ✔ ✔
Licensing ✔ ✔
Retail
Copyright
DKParker, LLC
2016
Pricing Methods
 What do you need to charge to cover:
 Cost of build
 Cost of Sale
 Profit Expectation = Cash flow
 Value based pricing – don’t start too low
 One time or recurring?
 Test, test, test
Copyright
DKParker, LLC
2016
Business Models – Pick ONE!
Copyright
DKParker, LLC
2016
Copyright
DKParker, LLC
2016
1. Subscription
 Example: Salesforce , Box, Spotify
 Use: B2C & B2B
 Key Metrics
 Average Revenue Per User (ARPU)
 Conversion ratio – e.g. trial to purchase
 Churn
 Challenges: MVP won’t be enough to be Kick Ass Product
 Notes: Highest multiple, forecastable revenue
Copyright
DKParker, LLC
2016
2. Commerce
 Example: Amazon, AmazonSupply
 Use: B2C & B2B
 Key Metrics:
 Wholesale or cost of goods sold
 Average Margin %
 Average Basket
 Commerce – Physical Goods- Wholesale, cost of goods, retail,
average margin, physical good
 Notes: Can mature into marketplace
Copyright
DKParker, LLC
2016
3. Productize a Service
 Your offerings is generally complex and requires services to
deploy
 Gross margin on Services >35%
 Product development comes with services
 Use: B2C & B2B
 Examples: Moz, service company convert to tools.
 Challenges – difficult to make the transition away from services
Copyright
DKParker, LLC
2016
4. Transaction Fees/Rental
 Example: 99Designs, KickStarter, Elance, Chugg
 Use: B2C & B2B
 Key Metrics
 Average transaction revenue
 Fee % per transaction
 Number of transactions
 Challenges: Margins are small (15%), need efficiency
 Notes: Don’t start too low
Copyright
DKParker, LLC
2016
5. Lead Generation
 Example: Mint.com, AllStarDirectories, NetQuote
 Use: B2C & B2B
 Key Metrics
 Cost to generate traffic
 % conversion of form data
 Price per lead
 Challenges: Highly competitive, barrier of entry is low
 Notes: Conversion rates average 0.06%
Copyright
DKParker, LLC
2016
6. Gaming
 Example: King.com/Candy Crush
 Use: B2C Only
 Key Metrics:
 Downloads
 % play
 Average in app purchase
 Challenges – tends to be “hit driven business”
 Notes: use in first 21 days is a predictor of success
Copyright
DKParker, LLC
2016
7. Marketplaces
 Example: eBay, Alibaba
 Use: B2C & B2B
 Key Metrics
 Average Transaction Amount
 Number of Monthly Transactions
 Commission %
 Challenges: two sided market places require you start with
one side, value to seller & Product market fit (x2)
 Notes: critical mass or marketplace required
Copyright
DKParker, LLC
2016
8. Advertising/Search
 Example: Google, Facebook
 Use: B2B – advertisers pay, users are free
 Key Metrics
 Traffic
 Click
 Avg. revenue/click
 Challenges – Scale, need >1M uniques/month to consider the
option
Copyright
DKParker, LLC
2016
9. New Media
 Example: SnapChat, WhatsApp
 Use: B2C only
 Key Metrics:
 K-Factor (Viral Co-efficient)
 Network effect of inviting others to join
 Challenges – K-Factor is hard. Little revenue until scale
 Notes: Everyone wants to! Not happening in B2B
Copyright
DKParker, LLC
2016
10. Combinations
 Combinations business models happen for two reasons
 You don’t know which model is right
 At scale you can expand revenue sources
 Examples: Hardware sensors + software services to create
data analytics
 Challenges – most require scale or at least traction
Copyright
DKParker, LLC
2016
Three that could cost you
everything!
Copyright
DKParker, LLC
2016
Three at Scale – Not Launch
1. Multi-sided Marketplaces – Etsy – create products and
customers
2. Big Data – PatientsLikeMe is emerging, but requires massive
data in advance = massive cash
3. Panels – Toluna, precise groups of customer service research
Copyright
DKParker, LLC
2016
Financial Models
Copyright
DKParker, LLC
2016
Financial Models Components
 Assumptions – from above, converts into #s on forecast
 Marketing spend, conversion
 Sales – who and how much
 Pricing
 Product timing, services required
 Expenses
 Staff
 Ops
 Build in “Sensitivity Analysis” vs hard coding, plan for time &
Product changes
Copyright
DKParker, LLC
2016
Example: Subscription Model
What can you know or at least estimate?
 Price per/sub/month
 Marketing spend to estimate Customer Acquisition Cost – CAC
 By channel, e.g. $1000 buys you how much traffic
 Converts to trials
 Converts to paid
 Churn %
 Time to close the sale
Copyright
DKParker, LLC
2016
Example: Subscription Model 2
 Expenses
 Timing and budget for staff
 Department level budget (Cost of Sales vs. G&A)
 Fully burdened expenses (taxes, benefits)
 Never a % of revenue
 Charts
 Simplified for your presentation
 Used as Forecast and Actual – living document
 When you showed it four months ago investor will ask
Copyright
DKParker, LLC
2016
Six Financial Model Fails
1. Not knowing your key metrics
2. Top down vs. bottom up revenue
3. Not using accounting terms
4. $100M in 3-5 years (knowing anything in 3-5 years is a
guess)
5. Not scaling expenses with revenues
6. Not connecting financial plan to story narrative
Copyright
DKParker, LLC
2016
A good financial model shows you
were thoughtful and disciplined – but
it’s still WRONG
Copyright
DKParker, LLC
2016
Want a copy of the Subscription
Model? Go to
www.VentureReadyModels.com
Copyright
DKParker, LLC
2016
Q&A – Your Models
Copyright
DKParker, LLC
2016
dave@dkparker.com
www.dkparker.com
@DaveParkerSEA

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10 business models that can make you $$ and 3 that can kill you

  • 1. Copyright DKParker, LLC 2016 10 Business Models (+3 that can fail) Dave Parker @DaveParkerSEA www.dkparker.com/blog Dave@dkparker.com http://AddSlideShare
  • 2. Copyright DKParker, LLC 2016 Agenda  About Dave Methods – Marketing, Sales & Pricing  10 Business Models  3 that can fail  Financial Models  Q&A – Your ideas
  • 3. Copyright DKParker, LLC 2016 About Dave  5X founder, Board Member and (former) VC, SVP Programs at UP Global (Startup Weekend + Startup America)  CEO – Code Fellows, code school based in Seattle  Husband, Dad & Husky  Startup Week Lead Organizer Nov 14-18 – 150 FREE events
  • 5. Copyright DKParker, LLC 2016 Three Methods + Two Models  Marketing Methods – how you get customers to FIND you  Sales Methods – how you SELL your product.  Pricing Methods – how to price your product  Business Models – are the way to monetize, including key metrics  Financial Models – include revenue and expenses. Used for both forecast and actual results
  • 6. Copyright DKParker, LLC 2016 Marketing & Sales Terms The following apply regardless of business models  Cost of Customer Acquisition (CAC)  Lifetime value of Customer (LTV)  12 month calculation (36 for mature businesses)  LTV:CAC Ratio >5X  Time to close sale  How does this change with product/market maturity?  Churn/Retention
  • 7. Copyright DKParker, LLC 2016 Marketing Channels and Metrics What are your core assumptions for marketing?  Track all Marketing by channel and $$ spend  Paid, SEO, etc.  Cost to create leads (traffic)  Cost (effort) and % convert to prospects  Cost (effort) and % convert to customers
  • 9. Copyright DKParker, LLC 2016 Sales Methods  Web Direct – Advertising and conversion based sales, sales support?, requires customers to search and find  Direct – internal sales people (Inside or Outside), # of deals/Month, salary + commissions  Distribution/Channel Sales – Indirect or external, <# of deals/Month, no Salary, just commission <Mindshare. Fulfill demand, don’t create demand  White Label Sales/Licensing – infrastructure or license sales, long sales cycle, few but targeted customers  Retail – Product on shelves - N/A
  • 10. Copyright DKParker, LLC 2016 Known Market Unknown Market Low Price Point High Price Point Known Search Words Unknown Search words Web Direct ✔ ✔ ✔ Direct ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ Indirect ✔ ✔ ✔ Licensing ✔ ✔ Retail
  • 11. Copyright DKParker, LLC 2016 Pricing Methods  What do you need to charge to cover:  Cost of build  Cost of Sale  Profit Expectation = Cash flow  Value based pricing – don’t start too low  One time or recurring?  Test, test, test
  • 14. Copyright DKParker, LLC 2016 1. Subscription  Example: Salesforce , Box, Spotify  Use: B2C & B2B  Key Metrics  Average Revenue Per User (ARPU)  Conversion ratio – e.g. trial to purchase  Churn  Challenges: MVP won’t be enough to be Kick Ass Product  Notes: Highest multiple, forecastable revenue
  • 15. Copyright DKParker, LLC 2016 2. Commerce  Example: Amazon, AmazonSupply  Use: B2C & B2B  Key Metrics:  Wholesale or cost of goods sold  Average Margin %  Average Basket  Commerce – Physical Goods- Wholesale, cost of goods, retail, average margin, physical good  Notes: Can mature into marketplace
  • 16. Copyright DKParker, LLC 2016 3. Productize a Service  Your offerings is generally complex and requires services to deploy  Gross margin on Services >35%  Product development comes with services  Use: B2C & B2B  Examples: Moz, service company convert to tools.  Challenges – difficult to make the transition away from services
  • 17. Copyright DKParker, LLC 2016 4. Transaction Fees/Rental  Example: 99Designs, KickStarter, Elance, Chugg  Use: B2C & B2B  Key Metrics  Average transaction revenue  Fee % per transaction  Number of transactions  Challenges: Margins are small (15%), need efficiency  Notes: Don’t start too low
  • 18. Copyright DKParker, LLC 2016 5. Lead Generation  Example: Mint.com, AllStarDirectories, NetQuote  Use: B2C & B2B  Key Metrics  Cost to generate traffic  % conversion of form data  Price per lead  Challenges: Highly competitive, barrier of entry is low  Notes: Conversion rates average 0.06%
  • 19. Copyright DKParker, LLC 2016 6. Gaming  Example: King.com/Candy Crush  Use: B2C Only  Key Metrics:  Downloads  % play  Average in app purchase  Challenges – tends to be “hit driven business”  Notes: use in first 21 days is a predictor of success
  • 20. Copyright DKParker, LLC 2016 7. Marketplaces  Example: eBay, Alibaba  Use: B2C & B2B  Key Metrics  Average Transaction Amount  Number of Monthly Transactions  Commission %  Challenges: two sided market places require you start with one side, value to seller & Product market fit (x2)  Notes: critical mass or marketplace required
  • 21. Copyright DKParker, LLC 2016 8. Advertising/Search  Example: Google, Facebook  Use: B2B – advertisers pay, users are free  Key Metrics  Traffic  Click  Avg. revenue/click  Challenges – Scale, need >1M uniques/month to consider the option
  • 22. Copyright DKParker, LLC 2016 9. New Media  Example: SnapChat, WhatsApp  Use: B2C only  Key Metrics:  K-Factor (Viral Co-efficient)  Network effect of inviting others to join  Challenges – K-Factor is hard. Little revenue until scale  Notes: Everyone wants to! Not happening in B2B
  • 23. Copyright DKParker, LLC 2016 10. Combinations  Combinations business models happen for two reasons  You don’t know which model is right  At scale you can expand revenue sources  Examples: Hardware sensors + software services to create data analytics  Challenges – most require scale or at least traction
  • 24. Copyright DKParker, LLC 2016 Three that could cost you everything!
  • 25. Copyright DKParker, LLC 2016 Three at Scale – Not Launch 1. Multi-sided Marketplaces – Etsy – create products and customers 2. Big Data – PatientsLikeMe is emerging, but requires massive data in advance = massive cash 3. Panels – Toluna, precise groups of customer service research
  • 27. Copyright DKParker, LLC 2016 Financial Models Components  Assumptions – from above, converts into #s on forecast  Marketing spend, conversion  Sales – who and how much  Pricing  Product timing, services required  Expenses  Staff  Ops  Build in “Sensitivity Analysis” vs hard coding, plan for time & Product changes
  • 28. Copyright DKParker, LLC 2016 Example: Subscription Model What can you know or at least estimate?  Price per/sub/month  Marketing spend to estimate Customer Acquisition Cost – CAC  By channel, e.g. $1000 buys you how much traffic  Converts to trials  Converts to paid  Churn %  Time to close the sale
  • 29. Copyright DKParker, LLC 2016 Example: Subscription Model 2  Expenses  Timing and budget for staff  Department level budget (Cost of Sales vs. G&A)  Fully burdened expenses (taxes, benefits)  Never a % of revenue  Charts  Simplified for your presentation  Used as Forecast and Actual – living document  When you showed it four months ago investor will ask
  • 30. Copyright DKParker, LLC 2016 Six Financial Model Fails 1. Not knowing your key metrics 2. Top down vs. bottom up revenue 3. Not using accounting terms 4. $100M in 3-5 years (knowing anything in 3-5 years is a guess) 5. Not scaling expenses with revenues 6. Not connecting financial plan to story narrative
  • 31. Copyright DKParker, LLC 2016 A good financial model shows you were thoughtful and disciplined – but it’s still WRONG
  • 32. Copyright DKParker, LLC 2016 Want a copy of the Subscription Model? Go to www.VentureReadyModels.com