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>	
  Tes&ng	
  for	
  Success	
  <	
  
   Elements	
  of	
  a	
  Successful	
  Tes0ng	
  
                 Program	
  
>	
  Agenda	
  
§ Why	
  Test?	
  	
   	
     	
   	
   	
  	
  
§ Problem	
  Diagnosis	
  
§ Deciding	
  what	
  to	
  Test 	
     	
  	
  
§ Test	
  Execu0on	
  and	
  Measurement	
  
§ Test	
  Repor0ng	
  

December	
  2011	
     ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
     2	
  
101011010010010010101111010010010101010100001011111001010101
010100101011001100010100101001101101001101001010100111001010
010010101001001010010100100101001111101010100101001001001010	
  


>	
  Why	
  Test?	
  
December	
  2011	
        ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
     3	
  
1.  Why	
  does	
  your	
  
               EVERYONE’S	
  
    business/organisa0on	
  
    exist?	
     GOT	
  AN	
  
2.  How	
  can	
  your	
  business/
                OPINION	
  
    organisa0on	
  improve?	
  
December	
  2011	
     ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
     4	
  
>	
  Why	
  Test?	
  
1.  Systema0c	
  Innova0on	
  
2.  Avoid	
  costly	
  mistakes	
  
3.  Know	
  why	
  things	
  go	
  right,	
  know	
  why	
  things	
  
    go	
  wrong	
  
4.  BeRer	
  employee	
  engagement	
  

§  Requires	
  planning	
  and	
  governance!	
  

December	
  2011	
           ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
        5	
  
101011010010010010101111010010010101010100001011111001010101
010100101011001100010100101001101101001101001010100111001010
010010101001001010010100100101001111101010100101001001001010	
  

>	
  Problem	
  Diagnosis	
  

December	
  2011	
        ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
     6	
  
>	
  What	
  is	
  the	
  business	
  problem?	
  



      Acquisi0on	
          Up-­‐Sell	
                            Reten0on	
     Advocacy	
  




                       Analy&cs	
  and	
  metrics	
  frameworks	
  



December	
  2011	
                     ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
                          7	
  
>	
  Case	
  Study	
  




December	
  2011	
       ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
     8	
  
>	
  Further	
  Diagnosis	
  
                         PROBLEM:	
  Sales	
  through	
  online	
  



                               Not	
  enough	
  site	
  traffic	
  

                         High	
  home	
  page	
  bounce	
  rate	
  

                       Low	
  conversion	
  on	
  product	
  page	
  

                                    Checkout	
  fallout	
  


December	
  2011	
                    ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
     9	
  
>	
  Further	
  Diagnosis	
  II	
  




                       Source:	
  www.feng-­‐gui.com	
  


December	
  2011	
                            ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
     10	
  
>	
  Some&mes	
  the	
  small	
  things	
  count	
  




December	
  2011	
     ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
     11	
  
>	
  Further	
  diagnosis	
  III	
  



                                       Wrong	
  message?	
  
                                       Wrong	
  channel?	
  
                                       Wrong	
  person?	
  
                                       Wrong	
  0me?	
  




December	
  2011	
     ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
        12	
  
>	
  Tes&ng	
  as	
  risk	
  mi&ga&on	
  

                                                                     Roll-­‐out	
  Channel	
  	
  

                                           Press	
                      TV	
           Radio	
          Outdoor	
  
                                            Offer,	
  
                                          Crea&ve,	
                Call-­‐to-­‐     Offer,	
  Call-­‐   Offer,	
  Call-­‐
                           eDM/DM	
        Call-­‐to-­‐             Ac&on	
          to-­‐Ac&on	
       to-­‐Ac&on	
  
                                           Ac&on	
  
               Test	
        Paid	
  
             Channel	
      Search	
  
                                            Offer	
                    Offer	
             Offer	
             Offer	
  

                                                                                                         Crea&ve,	
  
                            Display	
                                                Offer,	
  Call-­‐
                                                                                                        Offer,	
  Call-­‐
                                               -­‐	
                Crea&ve	
  
                            Media	
                                                  to	
  Ac&on	
  
                                                                                                        to	
  Ac&on	
  




December	
  2011	
                             ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
                                            13	
  
>	
  Tes&ng	
  as	
  standard	
  prac&ce	
  

                                                                     Test	
  Market	
  
                                                                     Control	
  Market	
  (no	
  ATL)	
  




                                  	
  
                                     	
  %	
  Uplib	
  in	
  Sales
                                                                                	
  
                                                                         	
  Time




December	
  2011	
     ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
                                                     14	
  
101011010010010010101111010010010101010100001011111001010101
010100101011001100010100101001101101001101001010100111001010
010010101001001010010100100101001111101010100101001001001010	
  

>	
  Deciding	
  what	
  to	
  Test	
  

December	
  2011	
        ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
     15	
  
Don’t	
  reinvent	
  the	
  wheel	
  


December	
  2011	
     ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
     16	
  
>	
  What	
  are	
  the	
  solu&on(s)?	
  




December	
  2011	
     ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
     17	
  
>	
  Consumer	
  Empathy	
  
 What	
  are	
  your	
  visitors	
  trying	
  to	
  achieve	
  by	
  visi2ng	
  your	
  site?	
  




December	
  2011	
                       ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
                           18	
  
>	
  Consumer	
  Empathy	
  
1.  Make	
  it	
  visible	
  
       –  People	
  can’t	
  convert	
  if	
  they	
  can’t	
  find	
  your	
  
          ‘Buy	
  Now’	
  buRon	
  
2.  Make	
  it	
  relevant	
  
       –  Need	
  to	
  resolve	
  consumer	
  reserva0ons/
          ques0ons	
  
3.  Make	
  it	
  easy	
  
       –  Easy	
  naviga0on,	
  easy	
  form	
  comple0on,	
  easy	
  to	
  
          read,	
  quick	
  page	
  load	
  
December	
  2011	
                  ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
             19	
  
>	
  Start	
  with	
  the	
  basics…	
  
1.	
  The	
  headline	
  
        –  Have	
  a	
  headline!	
  
        –  Headline	
  should	
  be	
  concrete	
  
        –  Headline	
  should	
  be	
  first	
  thing	
  visitors	
  look	
  at	
  
2.	
  Call	
  to	
  ac&on	
  
        –  Don’t	
  have	
  too	
  many	
  calls	
  to	
  ac0on	
  
        –  Have	
  an	
  ac0onable	
  call	
  to	
  ac0on	
  
        –  Have	
  a	
  big,	
  prominent,	
  visible	
  call	
  to	
  ac0on	
  
3.	
  Social	
  proof	
  
        –  Logos,	
  number	
  of	
  users,	
  tes0monials,	
  	
  
           case	
  studies,	
  media	
  coverage,	
  etc	
  
December	
  2011	
                      ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
             20	
  
>	
  Start	
  with	
  the	
  basics…	
  




December	
  2011	
     ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
     21	
  
>	
  Case	
  Study	
  




December	
  2011	
       ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
     22	
  
>	
  Further	
  Examples	
  
                       TEST	
  A	
                                          EXISTING	
  




December	
  2011	
                     ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
                    23	
  
>	
  Further	
  Examples	
  

     EXISTING	
  




         TEST	
  


December	
  2011	
     ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
     24	
  
>	
  Deciding	
  What	
  to	
  Test	
  
                          Test	
  Selec0on	
  Checklist	
  

§    Is	
  the	
  measurement	
  infrastructure	
  in	
  place	
  already?	
               	
  [	
  ✔	
  	
  ]	
  
                                                                                                	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
§    Can	
  I	
  readily	
  execute	
  the	
  solu0on?	
                                   	
  [	
  ✔	
  	
  ]	
  
                                                                                                	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
§    Do	
  I	
  have	
  enough	
  sample	
  to	
  draw	
  valid	
  conclusions?	
          	
  [	
  ✔	
  	
  ]	
  
                                                                                                	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
§    Will	
  this	
  prove	
  the	
  value	
  of	
  tes0ng	
  in	
  the	
  business?	
     	
  [	
  ✔	
  	
  ]	
  
                                                                                                	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  




December	
  2011	
                        ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
                                               25	
  
>	
  	
  Do	
  you	
  have	
  the	
  repor&ng?	
  
              For	
  each	
  of	
  Segment	
  X,	
  Y	
  and	
  Z...	
  
                                                                                           Test	
  Channel	
  	
  
                                                                     ATL	
                  DM	
          eDM	
      Online	
  

                                     Online	
                                                              ✔	
         ✔	
  

                                  Mailroom	
                                                 ✔	
  
                  Response	
      Call	
  Centre	
  
                   Channel	
  
                                    Bricks	
  &	
  
                                    Mortar	
  
                                 Channels	
  in	
  
                                                                      ✔	
  
                                  Aggregate	
  


December	
  2011	
                                    ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
                                            26	
  
>	
  Offline	
  conversions	
  from	
  online	
  
 Tying	
  offline	
  conversions	
  back	
  to	
  online	
  campaign	
  and	
  research	
  behavior	
  using	
  
 standard	
  cookie	
  technology	
  by	
  triggering	
  virtual	
  online	
  order	
  confirma0on	
  
 pages	
  for	
  offline	
  sales	
  using	
  email	
  receipts.	
  

                            Website.com	
     Phone	
                                               Virtual	
  Order	
  
                             Research	
       Orders	
                                      @	
     Confirma&on	
  




         Online	
  Ad	
     Website.com	
     Retail	
                                              Virtual	
  Order	
  
         Campaign	
          Research	
       Orders	
                                      @	
     Confirma&on	
  



                            Website.com	
     Online	
                Online	
  Order	
             Virtual	
  Order	
  
                             Research	
       Orders	
                Confirma&on	
          @	
     Confirma&on	
  




                               Cookie	
                                   Cookie	
                      Cookie	
  




December	
  2011	
                                     ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
                                    27	
  
>	
  Search	
  call	
  to	
  ac&on	
  for	
  offline	
  	
  




December	
  2011	
      ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
     28	
  
>	
  OTP	
  Response	
  
        –  Different	
  numbers	
  for	
  different	
  media	
  channels	
  
        –  Different	
  numbers	
  for	
  different	
  product	
  
           categories	
  
        –  Different	
  numbers	
  for	
  different	
  conversion	
  steps	
  
        –  Call	
  origin	
  becoming	
  useful	
  to	
  shape	
  call	
  script	
  
        –  Feasible	
  to	
  pause	
  numbers	
  to	
  improve	
  integrity	
  




December	
  2011	
                  ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
             29	
  
>	
  Whose	
  help	
  do	
  you	
  need?	
  

Technology/IT	
  
       UX Agency
    Analytics!
Your boss, Your boss’ boss
 Creative Agency
                       Customer Contact Management
December	
  2011	
             ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
     30	
  
>	
  Proving	
  the	
  Value	
  




 GO	
  BIG	
  
December	
  2011	
     ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
     31	
  
>	
  How	
  much	
  sample	
  do	
  I	
  need?	
  
                                        BAU/Baseline	
  
                                       Conversion	
  Rate	
  



           #	
  on	
  Segments,	
  
           #	
  of	
  Treatments	
  
                                                      n	
                       Expected	
  Δ	
  
                                                                               in	
  Conversion	
  



                                       Time	
  in	
  Market	
  
                                        [Digital	
  Only]	
  

December	
  2011	
                        ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
                            32	
  
>	
  Sta&s&cal	
  Significance	
  
Q.	
  How	
  much	
  am	
  I	
  willing	
  to	
  accept	
  that	
  the	
  	
  	
  	
  
     difference	
  in	
  the	
  results	
  between	
  my	
  test	
  
     group	
  and	
  control	
  group	
  may	
  have	
  been	
  due	
  
     to	
  chance?	
  
	
  
A.  Not	
  much.	
  I	
  want	
  to	
  be	
  confident	
  that	
  if	
  I	
  
      repeated	
  the	
  test	
  100	
  &mes,	
  then	
  I	
  would	
  
      observe	
  this	
  difference	
  95	
  &mes.	
  	
  
                                       	
  
                  This	
  is	
  ‘95%	
  confidence’	
  
December	
  2011	
                  ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
                     33	
  
>	
  Type	
  I	
  and	
  Type	
  II	
  Error	
  
Type	
  I:	
   	
  Accept	
  result	
  to	
  be	
  true	
  when	
  it’s	
  
               	
  actually	
  false	
  (false	
  posi&ves)	
  
	
  
Type	
  II: 	
  Accept	
  result	
  to	
  be	
  false	
  when	
  it’s	
  	
  
               	
  actually	
  true	
  (false	
  nega&ves)	
  




December	
  2011	
               ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
               34	
  
>	
  Es&ma&ng	
  Sample	
  Size	
  (%s)	
  

                           2 # p1 (1− p1 ) + p2 (1− p2 ) &
          n = (1.645+1.282) * %             2            (
                              $           Δ              '

   Where:	
  
                       	
  n	
   	
  =	
   	
  es0mated	
  sample	
  size	
  for	
  each	
  group	
  
                       	
  p1 	
  =	
   	
  expected	
  conversion	
  rate	
  for	
  your	
  test	
  treatment	
  
                       	
  p2 	
  =	
   	
  expected	
  conversion	
  rate	
  for	
  your	
  control	
  treatment	
  
                       	
  Δ	
   	
  =	
   	
  expected	
  minimum	
  percentage	
  point	
  difference	
  between	
  test	
  
                       	
   	
   	
  and	
  control	
  results	
              	
  	
  
   	
  
           The	
  value	
  of	
  1.645	
  reflects	
  that	
  we	
  accept	
  Type	
  I	
  error	
  probability	
  of	
  .05	
  	
  
           The	
  value	
  of	
  1.282	
  reflects	
  that	
  we	
  accept	
  Type	
  II	
  error	
  probability	
  of	
  .10	
  	
  

December	
  2011	
                                         ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
                                            35	
  
>	
  Es&ma&ng	
  Sample	
  Size	
  (%s)	
  
    Typical	
  Champion	
  (control)	
  vs.	
  Challenger	
  (test)	
  A|B	
  test,	
  typical	
  champion	
  
    response	
  rate	
  of	
  2.5%.	
  
    	
  
         •  Only	
  going	
  to	
  replace	
  Champion	
  with	
  Challenger	
  if	
  Challenger	
  
               response	
  rate	
  is	
  3.0%	
  (0.5%	
  is	
  a	
  meaningful	
  difference)        	
  	
  
    	
  

                           2 ! 0.025* 0.975 + 0.030 * 0.970 $
          n = (1.645+1.282) * #                2            &
                              "          0.005              %

    Sample	
  size	
  =	
  18,326	
  For	
  each	
  of	
  the	
  Champion	
  and	
  Challenger	
  groups	
  
    	
  
    If	
  1.0%	
  our	
  meaningful	
  difference	
  then	
  sample	
  size	
  is	
  only	
  5,378	
  


December	
  2011	
                               ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
                                36	
  
>	
  Es&ma&ng	
  Sample	
  Size	
  ($s)	
  

                                 (1.645 +1.282)2 * (s12 + s2 )
                                                           2
                              n=
                                            Δ2

   Where:	
  
                       	
  n	
   	
  =	
   	
  number	
  of	
  observa0ons	
  for	
  each	
  group	
  
                       	
  s1 	
  =	
   	
  expected	
  standard	
  devia0on	
  of	
  value	
  for	
  your	
  test	
  treatment	
  
                       	
  s2 	
  =	
   	
  expected	
  standard	
  devia0on	
  of	
  value	
  for	
  your	
  control	
  treatment	
  
                       	
  Δ	
   	
  =	
   	
  expected	
  minimum	
  difference	
  in	
  value	
  between	
  test	
  
                       	
   	
   	
  and	
  control	
  results	
          	
  	
  
   	
  
            The	
  value	
  of	
  1.645	
  reflects	
  an	
  accepted	
  Type	
  I	
  error	
  probability	
  of	
  .05	
  	
  
            The	
  value	
  of	
  1.282	
  reflects	
  an	
  accepted	
  Type	
  II	
  error	
  probability	
  of	
  .10	
  	
  

December	
  2011	
                                          ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
                                             37	
  
>	
  Standard	
  Devia&on	
  
    Standard	
  devia0on	
  is	
  measure	
  of	
  the	
  variability	
  of	
  your	
  results,	
  whether	
  some	
  
    your	
  results	
  are	
  quite	
  different	
  to	
  your	
  mean	
  (average)	
  result	
  or	
  whether	
  they	
  
    are	
  quite	
  similar.	
  

                                                                           n

                                                                       ∑(x − x )           i
                                                                         i=1
                                                      s=
                                                                                   n −1
   Where:	
  
                       	
  n	
   	
  =	
   	
  number	
  of	
  observa0ons	
  
                       	
  xi 	
  =	
   	
  the	
  result	
  for	
  the	
  ith	
  observa0on	
  
                       	
  x 	
  =	
   	
  mean	
  (average)	
  for	
  your	
  data	
  


December	
  2011	
                                                ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
                          38	
  
>	
  Es&ma&ng	
  Sample	
  Size	
  ($s)	
  
    Typical	
  Champion	
  (control)	
  vs.	
  Challenger	
  (test)	
  A|B	
  test,	
  typical	
  champion	
  
    mean	
  response	
  value	
  of	
  $20,	
  typical	
  response	
  rate	
  of	
  5%	
  
    	
  
         •  Only	
  going	
  to	
  replace	
  Champion	
  with	
  Challenger	
  if	
  Challenger	
  mean	
  
               response	
  value	
  is	
  is	
  $30	
  ($10	
  is	
  a	
  meaningful	
  difference)	
  
         •  Standard	
  devia0on	
  of	
  Champion	
  results	
  is	
  $5	
  (based	
  on	
  past	
  results).	
  
               We’ll	
  assume	
  the	
  same	
  for	
  the	
  Challenger.	
  	
  
                             	
  	
  
                                                                             2           2      2
    	
                    (1.645 +1.282) * (5 + 5 )
                       n=               2
                                     10
    Number	
  of	
  observa0ons	
  =	
  4.3	
  (~5)	
  for	
  each	
  of	
  the	
  Champion	
  and	
  Challenger	
  
    groups.	
  
    	
  
    Then	
  divide	
  through	
  with	
  the	
  expected	
  response	
  rate	
  to	
  get	
  minimum	
  sample	
  
    size	
  of	
  86	
  for	
  each	
  of	
  Challenger	
  and	
  Control	
  groups	
  (4.3/0.05)	
  
December	
  2011	
                                ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
                                     39	
  
>	
  Further	
  Complexity	
  I	
  
    If	
  we	
  wanted	
  to	
  test	
  the	
  performance	
  of	
  Challenger	
  vs.	
  Champion	
  for	
  different	
  
    segments	
  of	
  consumers:	
  


                                                              Response	
  Rate	
  
                                                 Champion	
                             Challenger	
  
                                       A	
               %	
                                 %	
  
                       Segment	
       B	
               %	
                                 %	
  
                                       C	
               %	
                                 %	
  


    Using	
  same	
  assump0ons	
  as	
  in	
  earlier	
  example	
  need	
  18,326	
  per	
  cell,	
  
    18,326*6=109,956	
  in	
  total	
  .	
  	
  




December	
  2011	
                                 ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
                                        40	
  
>	
  Further	
  Complexity	
  II	
  
    If	
  we	
  wanted	
  to	
  test	
  the	
  performance	
  of	
  Challenger	
  vs.	
  Champion	
  for	
  
    difference	
  segments	
  of	
  consumers	
  AND	
  had	
  3	
  different	
  types	
  of	
  Champion	
  
    crea0ve:	
  

                                                                        Response	
  Rate	
  
                                                            Challenger	
   Challenger	
   Challenger	
  
                                        Champion	
  
                                                                #1	
           #2	
           #3	
  
                                A	
         %	
                        %	
               %	
         %	
  
                Segment	
       B	
         %	
                        %	
               %	
         %	
  
                                C	
         %	
                        %	
               %	
         %	
  

    Using	
  same	
  assump0ons	
  as	
  in	
  earlier	
  example	
  need	
  18,326	
  per	
  cell,	
  
    18,326*12=219,912	
  in	
  total.	
  	
  


December	
  2011	
                                  ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
                           41	
  
>	
  Further	
  Complexity	
  III	
  
    If	
  we	
  wanted	
  to	
  test	
  the	
  performance	
  of	
  Challenger	
  crea0ve	
  that	
  was	
  
    specifically	
  customised	
  for	
  difference	
  segments	
  of	
  consumers,	
  then	
  we’re	
  
    actually	
  only	
  running	
  6	
  tests	
  

                                                                        Response	
  Rate	
  
                                                            Challenger	
   Challenger	
   Challenger	
  
                                        Champion	
  
                                                                #1	
           #2	
           #3	
  
                                A	
         %	
                        %	
  
                Segment	
       B	
         %	
                                          %	
  
                                C	
         %	
                                                      %	
  

    Using	
  same	
  assump0ons	
  as	
  in	
  earlier	
  example	
  need	
  18,326	
  per	
  cell,	
  
    18,326*6=109.956	
  in	
  total.	
  	
  


December	
  2011	
                                  ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
                           42	
  
>	
  Mul&variate	
  Tes&ng	
  
    Mul0variate	
  Tes0ng	
  (commonly	
  called	
  MVT)	
  is	
  a	
  term	
  used	
  for	
  tes0ng	
  different	
  
    varia0ons	
  of	
  typical	
  elements	
  of	
  a	
  landing	
  page,	
  direct	
  mail	
  leRer,	
  etc.	
  	
  The	
  aim	
  is	
  
    to	
  determine	
  which	
  combina0on	
  delivers	
  the	
  best	
  result.	
  


                       Element	
  #1:	
  Prominent	
  
                             headline	
  
                                                                              §  Element	
  #1	
  
                                           Element	
  #2:	
  	
                    –  2	
  varia0ons	
  (1	
  exis0ng,	
  1	
  new)	
  
                  Suppor0ng	
  	
  
                                              Call	
  to	
  
                   content	
                                                  §  Element	
  #2	
  
                                              ac0on	
  
                                                                                   –  2	
  varia0ons	
  (1	
  exis0ng,	
  1	
  new)	
  
                   Element	
  #3:	
  Social	
  proof	
  /	
                   §  Element	
  #3:	
  
                               trust	
                                             –  2	
  varia0ons	
  (1	
  exis0ng,	
  1	
  new)	
  

                        Terms	
  and	
  condi0ons	
  


December	
  2011	
                                       ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
                                            43	
  
>	
  MVT	
  –	
  Full	
  Factorial	
  
    A	
  full	
  factorial	
  design	
  requires	
  every	
  unique	
  combina0on	
  of	
  page	
  elements	
  and	
  
    can	
  therefore	
  be	
  very	
  sample	
  hungry.	
  	
  


                                                     Element	
  
                                                                                                      To	
  calculate	
  the	
  
                                 Headline	
     Call	
  to	
  Ac&on	
           Social	
  Proof	
  
                                                                                                      number	
  of	
  
                         1	
        H1	
              CTA1	
                             SP1	
  
                                                                                                      treatments	
  just	
  need	
  
                         2	
        H1	
              CTA1	
                             SP2	
  
                                                                                                      to	
  mul0ply	
  the	
  
                         3	
        H1	
              CTA2	
                             SP1	
  
                                                                                                      number	
  of	
  varia0ons	
  
                         4	
        H1	
              CTA2	
                             SP2	
  
         Treatment	
                                                                                  for	
  each	
  factor	
  
                         5	
        H2	
              CTA1	
                             SP1	
  
                                                                                                      together:	
  
                         6	
        H2	
              CTA1	
                             SP2	
  
                                                                                                      	
  
                         7	
        H2	
              CTA2	
                             SP1	
  
                                                                                                      2	
  x	
  2	
  x	
  2	
  =	
  	
  8	
  	
  
                         8	
        H2	
              CTA2	
                             SP2	
  




December	
  2011	
                                  ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
                                                          44	
  
>	
  MVT	
  –	
  Frac&onal	
  Factorial	
  
    The	
  alterna0ve	
  is	
  called	
  a	
  frac0onal	
  factorial	
  design	
  which	
  is	
  some	
  smaller	
  set	
  of	
  
    elements	
  combina0ons.	
  The	
  design	
  should	
  be	
  ‘balanced’	
  -­‐	
  every	
  varia0on	
  is	
  
    tested	
  the	
  same	
  number	
  of	
  0mes	
  and	
  each	
  combina0on	
  of	
  varia0ons	
  occurs	
  the	
  
    same	
  number	
  of	
  0mes.	
  

                                                              Element	
  
                                      Headline	
         Call	
  to	
  Ac&on	
             Social	
  Proof	
  
                              1	
  
                              2	
        H1	
                  CTA1	
                            SP2	
  
                                                                                                                 Reduced	
  sample	
  
                              3	
        H1	
                  CTA2	
                            SP1	
           requirements	
  
              Treatment	
  
                              4	
                                                                                4x18,326=73,304	
  
                              5	
        H2	
                  CTA1	
                            SP1	
  
                              6	
  
                              7	
  
                              8	
        H2	
                  CTA2	
                            SP2	
  



December	
  2011	
                                    ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
                                               45	
  
>	
  Layout	
  Before	
  Content	
  
§  Phase	
  #1:	
  A|B	
  test	
  
        –  Test	
  the	
  same	
  landing	
                             Element	
  #1:	
  Prominent	
  headline	
  
           page	
  content	
  in	
  
           completely	
  different	
  
           layouts	
  
§  Phase	
  #2:	
  MV	
  test	
                                          Suppor0ng	
  	
               Element	
  #2:	
  	
  
        –  Then	
  test	
  different	
                                      content	
                    Call	
  to	
  ac0on	
  
           content	
  element	
  
           combina0ons	
  within	
  the	
  
           winning	
  layout	
  
                                                                          Element	
  #3:	
  Social	
  proof	
  /	
  trust	
  
§  Phase	
  #3:	
  MV	
  test	
  (if	
  
    req’d)	
  
        –  Test	
  with	
  reduced	
  set	
  of	
                                  Terms	
  and	
  condi0ons	
  
           elements	
  

December	
  2011	
                            ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
                                                    46	
  
>	
  Case	
  Study	
  
§    Yes,	
  the	
  measurement	
  infrastructure	
  is	
  in	
  place	
  
§    I	
  can	
  readily	
  execute	
  the	
  test	
  design	
  
§    I	
  have	
  enough	
  sample	
  to	
  draw	
  valid	
  conclusions	
  
§    Yes,	
  this	
  design	
  will	
  prove	
  the	
  value	
  of	
  tes0ng	
  in	
  my	
  
      business	
  




December	
  2011	
                          ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
                    47	
  
101011010010010010101111010010010101010100001011111001010101
010100101011001100010100101001101101001101001010100111001010
010010101001001010010100100101001111101010100101001001001010	
  

>	
  Execu&on	
  &	
  Measurement	
  

December	
  2011	
        ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
     48	
  
Before	
  you	
  leap…	
  


December	
  2011	
              ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
     49	
  
>	
  Sample	
  Selec&on	
  
§  Each	
  sample	
  needs	
  to	
  be	
  alike	
  in	
  terms	
  of	
  
    their	
  predisposi0on	
  to	
  conversion	
  

                       Conversion:	
  low	
  rate	
  credit	
  card	
  applica0on	
  form	
  comple0on	
  


                                     TEST	
                                     CONTROL	
  
                                   18-­‐34	
                                         35-­‐64	
  
                               Mostly	
  Male	
                               Mostly	
  Female	
  
                             Mostly	
  Low	
  Income	
                       Mostly	
  High	
  Income	
  



December	
  2011	
                                  ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
                         50	
  
>	
  Timing	
  is	
  Important	
  


                          	
  ‘Burst’	
  Non	
  BAU	
  ATL	
                          Ideal	
  Test	
  Window	
  
                                   Campaign	
  
              Sales	
  




                                                           	
  Time	
  



December	
  2011	
                               ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
                                   51	
  
>	
  A|A	
  Tes&ng	
  
§  Set	
  a	
  test	
  that	
  splits	
  your	
  visitors	
  50/50	
  
    between	
  the	
  same	
  treatment	
  
        –  Check	
  that	
  sample	
  sizes	
  are	
  actually	
  50/50	
  
        –  Is	
  there	
  should	
  be	
  no	
  difference	
  in	
  your	
  
           conversion	
  rates	
  
        –  Are	
  volumes	
  of	
  conversions	
  matching	
  other	
  
           repor0ng?	
  



December	
  2011	
                 ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
           52	
  
>	
  Measuring	
  your	
  performance	
  
§  Propor0ons	
  (conversion	
  rates)	
  
§  Means	
  (average	
  $s)	
  
§  Variability	
  of	
  Means	
  (standard	
  devia0on)	
  

                       Would	
  my	
  winning	
  treatment	
  s2ll	
  be	
  the	
  winner	
  
                        across	
  all	
  my	
  customers/visitors/consumers?	
  	
  
	
  
§  Use	
  confidence	
  intervals	
  

December	
  2011	
                              ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
                53	
  
>	
  Confidence	
  Intervals	
  
      Conversion	
  Rate	
  




                                                                     Revenue	
  per	
  
                                                                      Response	
  
                               A	
        B	
   C	
                                       A	
        B	
   C	
  
                                  	
  Treatments	
                                           	
  Treatments	
  



December	
  2011	
                                  ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
                               54	
  
>	
  Confidence	
  Intervals	
  




December	
  2011	
     ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
     55	
  
>	
  Confidence	
  Interval	
  (%s)	
  

                                                         ˆ    ˆ
                                                         p(1− p)
                                               ˆ
                                               p ±1.96 *
                                                            n

   Where:	
  
                           ^	
  
                       	
  p	
   	
  =	
   	
  response	
  rate	
  
                       	
  n 	
  =	
   	
  sample	
  size	
  for	
  treatment	
  
                                                                                 	
  
                                              The	
  value	
  of	
  1.96	
  reflects	
  a	
  95%	
  confidence	
  level	
  




December	
  2011	
                                               ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
                           56	
  
>	
  Confidence	
  Interval	
  Es&ma&on	
  
                       Typical	
  Champion	
  (control)	
  vs.	
  Challenger	
  (test)	
  A|B	
  Test	
  

                                                                                      Treatment	
  
                                                                     Champion	
                   Challenger	
  
                                           Mailed	
                      60850	
                      52812	
  
                                         Responses	
                      1055	
                       455	
  
                                      Response	
  Rate	
                   1.7	
                        0.9	
  



                                    .017(1−.017)                                                                   .009(1−.009)
          1.7% ±1.96 *                                                               0.9% ±1.96 *
                                       60850                                                                          52812

                       1.7% ± 0.10%                                                                0.9% ± 0.08%
               1.69%	
  ≤	
  Champion	
  ≤	
  	
  1.71%	
                              0.82%	
  ≤	
  Challenger	
  ≤	
  	
  0.98%	
  


December	
  2011	
                                           ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
                                           57	
  
>	
  Confidence	
  Interval	
  Es&ma&on	
  
                                p1 (1− p1 ) p2 (1− p2 )
                p1 − p2 ±1.96 *            +
                                    n1          n2

   Where:	
  
                       	
  p1	
   =	
   	
  response	
  rate	
  for	
  challenger	
  
                       	
  p2	
   =	
   	
  response	
  rate	
  for	
  champion	
  	
  
                       	
  n1 	
  =	
   	
  sample	
  size	
  for	
  challenger	
  
                       	
  n2 	
  =	
   	
  sample	
  size	
  for	
  challenger	
  
   	
  
                                  The	
  value	
  of	
  1.96	
  reflects	
  a	
  95%	
  confidence	
  level	
  




December	
  2011	
                                                ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
              58	
  
>	
  Confidence	
  Interval	
  Es&ma&on	
  
                        Typical	
  Champion	
  (control)	
  vs.	
  Challenger	
  (test)	
  A|B	
  Test	
  

                                                                                     Treatment	
  
                                                                     Champion	
                   Challenger	
  
                                           Mailed	
                      60850	
                     52812	
  
                                        Responses	
                       1055	
                      455	
  
                                      Response	
  Rate	
                   1.7	
                       0.9	
  



                                        .009(1−.009) .017(1−.017)
                       0.9 −1.7 ±1.96 *             +
                                           52812        60850

                                                                −0.8 ± 0.13
               -­‐0.93%	
  ≤	
  Difference	
  Between	
  Challenger	
  and	
  Champion	
  ≤	
  	
  -­‐0.67%	
  


December	
  2011	
                                           ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
                      59	
  
>	
  Control	
  Group	
  Sample	
  Size	
  
                                                    p1 (1− p1 ) p2 (1− p2 )
                                    p1 − p2 ±1.96 *            +
                                                        n1          n2

                                                                pc (1− pc )
                 Rearranged:	
                  nc =               2
                                                          " m % pt (1− pt )
                                                          $      ' −
                                                          # 1.96 &        nt
   Where:	
  
                       	
  nc	
  	
  =	
   	
  sample	
  size	
  for	
  control	
  group	
  
                       	
  nt	
  	
  =	
   	
  sample	
  size	
  for	
  test	
  group	
  
                       	
  pc 	
  =	
   	
  forecast	
  response	
  rate	
  for	
  control	
  group	
  
                       	
  nt 	
  =	
   	
  forecast	
  response	
  rate	
  for	
  test	
  group	
  
                       	
  m	
  =	
   	
  desired	
  level	
  of	
  precision	
  (%	
  that	
  is	
  a	
  meaningful	
  difference)	
  	
  
   	
  
                                 The	
  value	
  of	
  1.96	
  reflects	
  a	
  95%	
  confidence	
  level	
  
December	
  2011	
                                             ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
                                              60	
  
>	
  Control	
  Group	
  Sample	
  Size	
  
        We	
  have	
  50,000	
  customers	
  that	
  we	
  could	
  include	
  in	
  our	
  test	
  design,	
  what	
  
         would	
  our	
  control	
  sample	
  need	
  to	
  be	
  if	
  we	
  tested	
  40,000	
  customers,	
  our	
  
       ‘natural’	
  cross-­‐sell	
  rate	
  was	
  1.0%	
  and	
  an	
  incremental	
  response	
  rate	
  of	
  1.0%	
  
                             points	
  would	
  be	
  deemed	
  to	
  be	
  meaningful?	
  

                                                    .01(1−.01)
                                   nc =              2
                                            " .01 % .02(.02 −.02)
                                            $      ' −
                                            # 1.96 &      40, 000

                                                           nc = 387
    This	
  result	
  suggests	
  we	
  could	
  actually	
  test	
  more	
  of	
  our	
  available	
  customer	
  base	
  
    than	
  we	
  might	
  have	
  ini0ally	
  expected	
  (~40,600).	
  



December	
  2011	
                                  ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
                                        61	
  
>	
  Confidence	
  intervals	
  ($s)	
  

                                                              s
                                                    x ±1.96 *
                                                               n

   Where:	
  
                       	
  x	
   	
  =	
   	
  mean	
  revenue	
  among	
  treatment	
  responders	
  
                       	
  s 	
  =	
   	
  standard	
  devia0on	
  of	
  revenue	
  among	
  some	
  treatment’s	
  responders	
  
                       	
  n 	
  =	
   	
  number	
  of	
  responders	
  to	
  the	
  treatment	
  
   	
  
                             The	
  value	
  of	
  1.96	
  reflects	
  a	
  95%	
  level	
  of	
  confidence.	
  	
  




December	
  2011	
                                          ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
                                         62	
  
>	
  Standard	
  Devia&on	
  (reminder)	
  
    Standard	
  devia0on	
  is	
  measure	
  of	
  the	
  variability	
  of	
  your	
  results,	
  whether	
  some	
  
    your	
  results	
  are	
  quite	
  different	
  to	
  your	
  mean	
  (average)	
  result	
  or	
  whether	
  they	
  
    are	
  quite	
  similar.	
  

                                                                           n

                                                                       ∑(x − x )           i
                                                                         i=1
                                                      s=
                                                                                   n −1
   Where:	
  
                       	
  n	
   	
  =	
   	
  number	
  of	
  observa0ons	
  
                       	
  xi 	
  =	
   	
  the	
  result	
  for	
  the	
  ith	
  observa0on	
  
                       	
  x 	
  =	
   	
  mean	
  (average)	
  for	
  your	
  data	
  


December	
  2011	
                                                ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
                          63	
  
>	
  Confidence	
  intervals	
  ($s)	
  
                                                                                                 2   2
                                                      s s                                        1   2
                                      x1 − x2 ±1.96 *   +
                                                      n1 n2
   Where:	
  
                       	
  x1 	
  =	
   	
  mean	
  value	
  among	
  among	
  responders	
  to	
  a	
  treatment	
  
                       	
  x2 	
  =	
   	
  mean	
  value	
  among	
  among	
  responders	
  to	
  a	
  different	
  treatment	
  	
  
                       	
  s1 	
  =	
   	
  std.	
  dev.	
  of	
  value	
  among	
  one	
  treatment’s	
  responders	
  
                       	
  s2 	
  =	
   	
  std.	
  dev.	
  of	
  value	
  among	
  the	
  other	
  treatment’s	
  responders
                       	
  n1 	
  =	
   	
  number	
  of	
  responders	
  to	
  the	
  treatment	
  
                       	
  n2 	
  =	
   	
  number	
  of	
  responders	
  to	
  the	
  other	
  treatment	
  
   	
  
                                   The	
  value	
  of	
  1.96	
  reflects	
  a	
  95%	
  level	
  of	
  confidence.	
  
          n1	
  and	
  n2	
  is	
  sufficiently	
  large	
  to	
  es0mate	
  the	
  std.	
  dev.	
  in	
  the	
  popula0on	
  with	
  
                                                     the	
  std.	
  dev.	
  of	
  the	
  sample.	
  
December	
  2011	
                                          ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
                                            64	
  
>	
  Confidence	
  intervals	
  ($s)	
  
                       Typical	
  Champion	
  (control)	
  vs.	
  Challenger	
  (test)	
  A|B	
  Test	
  

                                                                                  Treatment	
  
                                                                  Champion	
                    Challenger	
  
                                         Mailed	
                     60850	
                     52812	
  
                                       Responses	
                     1055	
                       455	
  
                                    Response	
  Rate	
                  1.7	
                       0.9	
  
                                      Total	
  Value	
              $36,925	
                    $38,675	
  
                                      Mean	
  Value	
                   $35	
                       $85	
  
                                        Std	
  Dev	
                    $30	
                       $50	
  



                         50 2 30 2
         85 − 35 ±1.96 *     +                                                                                50 ± 4.9
                         455 1055
At	
  a	
  minimum,	
  we	
  should	
  expect	
  an	
  incremental	
  $45.1	
  if	
  we	
  rolled	
  out	
  the	
  
Challenger	
  crea0ve	
  as	
  BAU	
  (although	
  our	
  total	
  amount	
  of	
  incremental	
  revenue	
  
would	
  be	
  less).	
  
December	
  2011	
                                         ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
                              65	
  
>	
  Case	
  Study	
  




December	
  2011	
       ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
     66	
  
>	
  Main	
  Effects	
  




December	
  2011	
     ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
     67	
  
>	
  Main	
  Effects	
  
                                               Typical	
  Landing	
  Page	
  Test	
  

                                                Element	
                                                          Results	
  

                                                Call	
  to	
                                      Visitors	
                       Conversion	
  
                                Headline	
                             Social	
  Proof	
                         Conversions	
  
                                                Ac&on	
                                           Tested	
                            Rate	
  

                        1	
        H1	
          CTA1	
                      SP1	
                 1237	
             456	
            37%	
  
                        2	
        H1	
          CTA1	
                      SP2	
                 1456	
             345	
            24%	
  
                        3	
        H1	
          CTA2	
                      SP1	
                 1245	
             234	
            19%	
  
                        4	
        H1	
          CTA2	
                      SP2	
                 2123	
             432	
            20%	
  
        Treatment	
  
                        5	
        H2	
          CTA1	
                      SP1	
                 1342	
             234	
            17%	
  
                        6	
        H2	
          CTA1	
                      SP2	
                 1102	
             123	
            11%	
  
                        7	
        H2	
          CTA2	
                      SP1	
                 1365	
             700	
            51%	
  
                        8	
        H2	
          CTA2	
                      SP2	
                 1243	
             643	
            52%	
  


Treatment	
  #7	
  and	
  #8	
  were	
  the	
  clear	
  winners	
  and	
  It	
  looks	
  as	
  if	
  the	
  Headline	
  and	
  
Call-­‐to-­‐Ac0on	
  were	
  much	
  bigger	
  drivers	
  of	
  posi0ve	
  performance	
  than	
  the	
  Social	
  
Proof.	
  Lets	
  check	
  this!	
  

December	
  2011	
                                           ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
                                                       68	
  
>	
  Main	
  Effects	
  
                                                        Typical	
  Landing	
  Page	
  Test	
  

                                              Element	
                                         Results	
  

                                              Call	
  to	
      Social	
           Visitors	
         Conversion	
  
                               Headline	
  
                                              Ac&on	
           Proof	
            Tested	
              Rate	
  

                       1	
        H1	
         CTA1	
            SP1	
               1237	
                   37%	
  
                       2	
        H1	
         CTA1	
            SP2	
               1456	
                   24%	
  
                                                                                                                        Avg	
  H1=24%	
  
                       3	
        H1	
         CTA2	
            SP1	
               1245	
                   19%	
  
                       4	
        H1	
         CTA2	
            SP2	
               2123	
                   20%	
  
    Treatment	
  
                       5	
        H2	
         CTA1	
            SP1	
               1342	
                   17%	
  
                       6	
        H2	
         CTA1	
            SP2	
               1102	
                   11%	
  
                       7	
        H2	
         CTA2	
            SP1	
               1365	
                   51%	
  
                                                                                                                        Avg	
  H2=33%	
  
                       8	
        H2	
         CTA2	
            SP2	
               1243	
                   52%	
  


The	
  Main	
  Effect	
  of	
  the	
  Headline	
  is	
  simply	
  the	
  (weighted)	
  average	
  conversion	
  rate	
  
for	
  Headline	
  2	
  less	
  the	
  (weighted)	
  average	
  conversion	
  rate	
  for	
  Headline	
  1	
  	
  
(33%-­‐24%=9%)	
  

December	
  2011	
                                              ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
                                            69	
  
>	
  Main	
  Effects	
  
                                                 Typical	
  Landing	
  Page	
  Test	
  

                                                                                              Main	
  Effect	
  
                                                             Headline	
                           9.4%	
  
                                   Element	
             Call	
  to	
  Ac&on	
                   11.1%	
  
                                                          Social	
  Proof	
                       5.3%	
  



In	
  actual	
  fact,	
  it	
  was	
  varia0ons	
  in	
  Call	
  to	
  Ac0on	
  that	
  had	
  the	
  most	
  posi0ve	
  impact	
  
on	
  our	
  results,	
  improving	
  conversions	
  by	
  11.1%	
  points.	
  




December	
  2011	
                                       ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
                                             70	
  
>	
  Interac&on	
  Effects	
  
                                                   Typical	
  Landing	
  Page	
  Test	
  

                                                                Element	
                                       Results	
  

                                                                 Call	
  to	
          Social	
     Visitors	
        Conversion	
  
                                               Headline	
  
                                                                 Ac&on	
               Proof	
      Tested	
             Rate	
  

                                       1	
        H1	
            CTA1	
                SP1	
        1237	
                   37%	
  
                                       2	
        H1	
            CTA1	
                SP2	
        1456	
                   24%	
  
                                       7	
        H2	
            CTA2	
                SP1	
        1365	
                   51%	
  
                                       8	
        H2	
            CTA2	
                SP2	
        1243	
                   52%	
  
                       Treatment	
  
                                       3	
        H1	
            CTA2	
                SP1	
        1245	
                   19%	
  
                                       4	
        H1	
            CTA2	
                SP2	
        2123	
                   20%	
  
                                       5	
        H2	
            CTA1	
                SP1	
        1342	
                   17%	
  
                                       6	
        H2	
            CTA1	
                SP2	
        1102	
                   11%	
  


An	
  interac0on	
  effect	
  is	
  present	
  where	
  the	
  performance	
  of	
  one	
  element	
  is	
  
dependent	
  on	
  which	
  varia0on	
  of	
  the	
  another	
  variable	
  is	
  present.	
  In	
  this	
  example,	
  
we	
  are	
  looking	
  at	
  whether	
  the	
  results	
  for	
  each	
  of	
  the	
  	
  Headlines	
  is	
  dependent	
  on	
  
which	
  Call-­‐to-­‐Ac0on.	
  
December	
  2011	
                                            ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
                                          71	
  
>	
  Interac&on	
  Effects	
  
                                                        Typical	
  Landing	
  Page	
  Test	
  

                                              Element	
                                         Results	
  

                                              Call	
  to	
      Social	
           Visitors	
         Conversion	
  
                               Headline	
  
                                              Ac&on	
           Proof	
            Tested	
              Rate	
  

                       1	
        H1	
         CTA1	
            SP1	
               1237	
                   37%	
  
                       2	
        H1	
         CTA1	
            SP2	
               1456	
                   24%	
  
                                                                                                                        Wtd	
  Avg	
  H1CTA1=30%	
  
                       3	
        H1	
         CTA2	
            SP1	
               1245	
                   19%	
  
                                                                                                                        Wtd	
  Avg	
  H1CTA2=20%	
  
                       4	
        H1	
         CTA2	
            SP2	
               2123	
                   20%	
  
    Treatment	
  
                       5	
        H2	
         CTA1	
            SP1	
               1342	
                   17%	
  
                                                                                                                        Wtd	
  Avg	
  H2CTA1=14%	
  
                       6	
        H2	
         CTA1	
            SP2	
               1102	
                   11%	
  
                       7	
        H2	
         CTA2	
            SP1	
               1365	
                   51%	
  
                                                                                                                        Wtd	
  Avg	
  H2CTA2=51%	
  
                       8	
        H2	
         CTA2	
            SP2	
               1243	
                   52%	
  


The	
  first	
  step	
  is	
  to	
  create	
  weighted	
  average	
  response	
  rates	
  between	
  for	
  each	
  of	
  
the	
  two	
  factors	
  (ignoring	
  Social	
  Proof).	
  	
  


December	
  2011	
                                              ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
                                             72	
  
>	
  Interac&on	
  Effects	
  
                                                           Typical	
  Landing	
  Page	
  Test	
  

                                         Call	
  to	
  Ac&on	
  
                                 CTA1	
         CTA2	
             Diff	
  
                                                                                         60%	
  
                       H1	
      30%	
           20%	
        -­‐10%	
  
                                                                                         40%	
  
                                                                                                                                    CTA1	
  
                                                                                         20%	
  
       Headline	
      H2	
      14%	
           51%	
         37%	
                                                                CTA2	
  
                                                                                            0%	
  
                       Diff	
     -­‐16%	
        31%	
  
                                                                                                                  H1	
     H2	
  

The	
  next	
  step	
  is	
  to	
  calculate	
  the	
  difference	
  in	
  performance	
  of	
  one	
  factor	
  across	
  
different	
  variants	
  of	
  the	
  other	
  factor.	
  If	
  the	
  difference	
  of	
  this	
  difference	
  is	
  non-­‐
zero	
  (or	
  not	
  very	
  close	
  to	
  zero),	
  then	
  you	
  have	
  an	
  interac0on	
  effect.	
  	
  
	
  
For	
  example,	
  there	
  is	
  an	
  interac0on	
  effect	
  between	
  the	
  Headline	
  and	
  Call	
  to	
  
Ac0on	
  as	
  the	
  difference	
  in	
  the	
  difference	
  in	
  performance	
  is	
  non-­‐zero	
  (31%-­‐
(-­‐16%)=47%).	
  This	
  is	
  very	
  large	
  interac0on	
  when	
  compared	
  to	
  the	
  Main	
  Effects!	
  

December	
  2011	
                                                           ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
                                  73	
  
>	
  Interac&on	
  Effects	
  
                                                                 Typical	
  Landing	
  Page	
  Test	
  

                                                 Sociol	
  Proof	
  
                                     SP1	
             SP2	
           Diff	
  
                                                                                               40%	
  
                           H1	
      28%	
             22%	
           -­‐6%	
                                                                SP1	
  
                                                                                               20%	
  
       Headline	
          H2	
      34%	
             33%	
           -­‐1%	
                                                                SP2	
  
                                                                                                  0%	
  
                           Diff	
     -­‐6%	
           11%	
  
                                                                                                                         H1	
       H2	
  

                                                 Sociol	
  Proof	
                             40%	
  
                                     SP1	
             SP2	
           Diff	
  

                          CTA1	
     27%	
             18%	
           -­‐9%	
                 20%	
                                          SP1	
  
         Call	
  to	
                                                                                                                         SP2	
  
                          CTA2	
     36%	
             32%	
           -­‐4%	
  
         Ac&on	
                                                                                  0%	
  
                           Diff	
     9%	
              14%	
                                                            CTA1	
     CTA2	
  

December	
  2011	
                                                                 ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
                                     74	
  
101011010010010010101111010010010101010100001011111001010101
010100101011001100010100101001101101001101001010100111001010
010010101001001010010100100101001111101010100101001001001010	
  

>	
  Repor&ng	
  

December	
  2011	
        ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
     75	
  
Document	
  Everything!	
  


December	
  2011	
     ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
     76	
  
>	
  1.	
  Describe	
  the	
  test	
  
§  Describe	
  the	
  outcome(s)	
  you’re	
  trying	
  to	
  
    influence	
  
§  Describe	
  your	
  target	
  audience	
  
§  Describe	
  the	
  different	
  treatments	
  including	
  
    copies	
  of	
  crea0ve	
  




December	
  2011	
        ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
        77	
  
>	
  2.	
  Jus&fy	
  the	
  test	
  design	
  
§  Detail	
  why	
  you’ve	
  chosen	
  the	
  par0cular	
  	
  
    outcome	
  you’re	
  trying	
  to	
  influence	
  
§  Detail	
  why	
  you’ve	
  chosen	
  the	
  consumers	
  
    you	
  are	
  trying	
  to	
  influence	
  
§  Detail	
  why	
  your	
  interven0on	
  should	
  work	
  
        –  Past	
  test	
  results/Useability	
  test/Case	
  studies	
  
        –  Marketers	
  intui0on/logic	
  


December	
  2011	
                ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
          78	
  
>	
  3.	
  Results	
  &	
  Conclusions	
  
§  Detail	
  all	
  the	
  performance	
  results	
  
§  Discuss	
  your	
  hypotheses	
  
§  Future	
  tests	
  
§  ‘Meta’	
  repor0ng	
  of	
  your	
  test	
  program	
  
        	
  




December	
  2011	
          ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
     79	
  
>	
  The	
  Scien&fic	
  Method	
  


                       Knowledge                             	
  




   Establish	
                                                      Develop	
  
     Facts	
                                                         Test(s)	
  

                              Data                	
  




December	
  2011	
      ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
                      80	
  
>	
  Case	
  Study	
  




December	
  2011	
       ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
     81	
  
>	
  List	
  of	
  (Some)	
  Resources	
  
§  hRp://visualwebsiteop0mizer.com/case-­‐
    studies.php	
  
§  hRp://www.whichtestwon.com/	
  
§  hRp://www.feng-­‐gui.com	
  
§  hRp://www.smashingmagazine.com/
    2010/06/24/the-­‐ul0mate-­‐guide-­‐to-­‐a-­‐b-­‐
    tes0ng	
  

December	
  2011	
     ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
     82	
  
Contact	
  us	
  
                       msavio@datalicious.com	
  
                                	
  
                           Learn	
  more	
  
                         blog.datalicious.com	
  
                                   	
  
                             Follow	
  us	
  
                       twizer.com/datalicious	
  
                                 	
  
December	
  2011	
              ©	
  Datalicious	
  Pty	
  Ltd	
     83	
  
Data	
  >	
  Insights	
  >	
  Ac&on	
  

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Testing for Success

  • 1. >  Tes&ng  for  Success  <   Elements  of  a  Successful  Tes0ng   Program  
  • 2. >  Agenda   § Why  Test?               § Problem  Diagnosis   § Deciding  what  to  Test       § Test  Execu0on  and  Measurement   § Test  Repor0ng   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   2  
  • 4. 1.  Why  does  your   EVERYONE’S   business/organisa0on   exist?   GOT  AN   2.  How  can  your  business/ OPINION   organisa0on  improve?   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   4  
  • 5. >  Why  Test?   1.  Systema0c  Innova0on   2.  Avoid  costly  mistakes   3.  Know  why  things  go  right,  know  why  things   go  wrong   4.  BeRer  employee  engagement   §  Requires  planning  and  governance!   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   5  
  • 7. >  What  is  the  business  problem?   Acquisi0on   Up-­‐Sell   Reten0on   Advocacy   Analy&cs  and  metrics  frameworks   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   7  
  • 8. >  Case  Study   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   8  
  • 9. >  Further  Diagnosis   PROBLEM:  Sales  through  online   Not  enough  site  traffic   High  home  page  bounce  rate   Low  conversion  on  product  page   Checkout  fallout   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   9  
  • 10. >  Further  Diagnosis  II   Source:  www.feng-­‐gui.com   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   10  
  • 11. >  Some&mes  the  small  things  count   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   11  
  • 12. >  Further  diagnosis  III   Wrong  message?   Wrong  channel?   Wrong  person?   Wrong  0me?   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   12  
  • 13. >  Tes&ng  as  risk  mi&ga&on   Roll-­‐out  Channel     Press   TV   Radio   Outdoor   Offer,   Crea&ve,   Call-­‐to-­‐ Offer,  Call-­‐ Offer,  Call-­‐ eDM/DM   Call-­‐to-­‐ Ac&on   to-­‐Ac&on   to-­‐Ac&on   Ac&on   Test   Paid   Channel   Search   Offer   Offer   Offer   Offer   Crea&ve,   Display   Offer,  Call-­‐ Offer,  Call-­‐ -­‐   Crea&ve   Media   to  Ac&on   to  Ac&on   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   13  
  • 14. >  Tes&ng  as  standard  prac&ce   Test  Market   Control  Market  (no  ATL)      %  Uplib  in  Sales    Time December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   14  
  • 16. Don’t  reinvent  the  wheel   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   16  
  • 17. >  What  are  the  solu&on(s)?   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   17  
  • 18. >  Consumer  Empathy   What  are  your  visitors  trying  to  achieve  by  visi2ng  your  site?   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   18  
  • 19. >  Consumer  Empathy   1.  Make  it  visible   –  People  can’t  convert  if  they  can’t  find  your   ‘Buy  Now’  buRon   2.  Make  it  relevant   –  Need  to  resolve  consumer  reserva0ons/ ques0ons   3.  Make  it  easy   –  Easy  naviga0on,  easy  form  comple0on,  easy  to   read,  quick  page  load   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   19  
  • 20. >  Start  with  the  basics…   1.  The  headline   –  Have  a  headline!   –  Headline  should  be  concrete   –  Headline  should  be  first  thing  visitors  look  at   2.  Call  to  ac&on   –  Don’t  have  too  many  calls  to  ac0on   –  Have  an  ac0onable  call  to  ac0on   –  Have  a  big,  prominent,  visible  call  to  ac0on   3.  Social  proof   –  Logos,  number  of  users,  tes0monials,     case  studies,  media  coverage,  etc   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   20  
  • 21. >  Start  with  the  basics…   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   21  
  • 22. >  Case  Study   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   22  
  • 23. >  Further  Examples   TEST  A   EXISTING   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   23  
  • 24. >  Further  Examples   EXISTING   TEST   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   24  
  • 25. >  Deciding  What  to  Test   Test  Selec0on  Checklist   §  Is  the  measurement  infrastructure  in  place  already?    [  ✔    ]                 §  Can  I  readily  execute  the  solu0on?    [  ✔    ]                 §  Do  I  have  enough  sample  to  draw  valid  conclusions?    [  ✔    ]                 §  Will  this  prove  the  value  of  tes0ng  in  the  business?    [  ✔    ]                 December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   25  
  • 26. >    Do  you  have  the  repor&ng?   For  each  of  Segment  X,  Y  and  Z...   Test  Channel     ATL   DM   eDM   Online   Online   ✔   ✔   Mailroom   ✔   Response   Call  Centre   Channel   Bricks  &   Mortar   Channels  in   ✔   Aggregate   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   26  
  • 27. >  Offline  conversions  from  online   Tying  offline  conversions  back  to  online  campaign  and  research  behavior  using   standard  cookie  technology  by  triggering  virtual  online  order  confirma0on   pages  for  offline  sales  using  email  receipts.   Website.com   Phone   Virtual  Order   Research   Orders   @   Confirma&on   Online  Ad   Website.com   Retail   Virtual  Order   Campaign   Research   Orders   @   Confirma&on   Website.com   Online   Online  Order   Virtual  Order   Research   Orders   Confirma&on   @   Confirma&on   Cookie   Cookie   Cookie   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   27  
  • 28. >  Search  call  to  ac&on  for  offline     December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   28  
  • 29. >  OTP  Response   –  Different  numbers  for  different  media  channels   –  Different  numbers  for  different  product   categories   –  Different  numbers  for  different  conversion  steps   –  Call  origin  becoming  useful  to  shape  call  script   –  Feasible  to  pause  numbers  to  improve  integrity   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   29  
  • 30. >  Whose  help  do  you  need?   Technology/IT   UX Agency Analytics! Your boss, Your boss’ boss Creative Agency Customer Contact Management December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   30  
  • 31. >  Proving  the  Value   GO  BIG   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   31  
  • 32. >  How  much  sample  do  I  need?   BAU/Baseline   Conversion  Rate   #  on  Segments,   #  of  Treatments   n   Expected  Δ   in  Conversion   Time  in  Market   [Digital  Only]   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   32  
  • 33. >  Sta&s&cal  Significance   Q.  How  much  am  I  willing  to  accept  that  the         difference  in  the  results  between  my  test   group  and  control  group  may  have  been  due   to  chance?     A.  Not  much.  I  want  to  be  confident  that  if  I   repeated  the  test  100  &mes,  then  I  would   observe  this  difference  95  &mes.       This  is  ‘95%  confidence’   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   33  
  • 34. >  Type  I  and  Type  II  Error   Type  I:    Accept  result  to  be  true  when  it’s    actually  false  (false  posi&ves)     Type  II:  Accept  result  to  be  false  when  it’s      actually  true  (false  nega&ves)   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   34  
  • 35. >  Es&ma&ng  Sample  Size  (%s)   2 # p1 (1− p1 ) + p2 (1− p2 ) & n = (1.645+1.282) * % 2 ( $ Δ ' Where:    n    =    es0mated  sample  size  for  each  group    p1  =    expected  conversion  rate  for  your  test  treatment    p2  =    expected  conversion  rate  for  your  control  treatment    Δ    =    expected  minimum  percentage  point  difference  between  test        and  control  results         The  value  of  1.645  reflects  that  we  accept  Type  I  error  probability  of  .05     The  value  of  1.282  reflects  that  we  accept  Type  II  error  probability  of  .10     December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   35  
  • 36. >  Es&ma&ng  Sample  Size  (%s)   Typical  Champion  (control)  vs.  Challenger  (test)  A|B  test,  typical  champion   response  rate  of  2.5%.     •  Only  going  to  replace  Champion  with  Challenger  if  Challenger   response  rate  is  3.0%  (0.5%  is  a  meaningful  difference)       2 ! 0.025* 0.975 + 0.030 * 0.970 $ n = (1.645+1.282) * # 2 & " 0.005 % Sample  size  =  18,326  For  each  of  the  Champion  and  Challenger  groups     If  1.0%  our  meaningful  difference  then  sample  size  is  only  5,378   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   36  
  • 37. >  Es&ma&ng  Sample  Size  ($s)   (1.645 +1.282)2 * (s12 + s2 ) 2 n= Δ2 Where:    n    =    number  of  observa0ons  for  each  group    s1  =    expected  standard  devia0on  of  value  for  your  test  treatment    s2  =    expected  standard  devia0on  of  value  for  your  control  treatment    Δ    =    expected  minimum  difference  in  value  between  test        and  control  results         The  value  of  1.645  reflects  an  accepted  Type  I  error  probability  of  .05     The  value  of  1.282  reflects  an  accepted  Type  II  error  probability  of  .10     December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   37  
  • 38. >  Standard  Devia&on   Standard  devia0on  is  measure  of  the  variability  of  your  results,  whether  some   your  results  are  quite  different  to  your  mean  (average)  result  or  whether  they   are  quite  similar.   n ∑(x − x ) i i=1 s= n −1 Where:    n    =    number  of  observa0ons    xi  =    the  result  for  the  ith  observa0on    x  =    mean  (average)  for  your  data   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   38  
  • 39. >  Es&ma&ng  Sample  Size  ($s)   Typical  Champion  (control)  vs.  Challenger  (test)  A|B  test,  typical  champion   mean  response  value  of  $20,  typical  response  rate  of  5%     •  Only  going  to  replace  Champion  with  Challenger  if  Challenger  mean   response  value  is  is  $30  ($10  is  a  meaningful  difference)   •  Standard  devia0on  of  Champion  results  is  $5  (based  on  past  results).   We’ll  assume  the  same  for  the  Challenger.         2 2 2   (1.645 +1.282) * (5 + 5 ) n= 2 10 Number  of  observa0ons  =  4.3  (~5)  for  each  of  the  Champion  and  Challenger   groups.     Then  divide  through  with  the  expected  response  rate  to  get  minimum  sample   size  of  86  for  each  of  Challenger  and  Control  groups  (4.3/0.05)   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   39  
  • 40. >  Further  Complexity  I   If  we  wanted  to  test  the  performance  of  Challenger  vs.  Champion  for  different   segments  of  consumers:   Response  Rate   Champion   Challenger   A   %   %   Segment   B   %   %   C   %   %   Using  same  assump0ons  as  in  earlier  example  need  18,326  per  cell,   18,326*6=109,956  in  total  .     December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   40  
  • 41. >  Further  Complexity  II   If  we  wanted  to  test  the  performance  of  Challenger  vs.  Champion  for   difference  segments  of  consumers  AND  had  3  different  types  of  Champion   crea0ve:   Response  Rate   Challenger   Challenger   Challenger   Champion   #1   #2   #3   A   %   %   %   %   Segment   B   %   %   %   %   C   %   %   %   %   Using  same  assump0ons  as  in  earlier  example  need  18,326  per  cell,   18,326*12=219,912  in  total.     December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   41  
  • 42. >  Further  Complexity  III   If  we  wanted  to  test  the  performance  of  Challenger  crea0ve  that  was   specifically  customised  for  difference  segments  of  consumers,  then  we’re   actually  only  running  6  tests   Response  Rate   Challenger   Challenger   Challenger   Champion   #1   #2   #3   A   %   %   Segment   B   %   %   C   %   %   Using  same  assump0ons  as  in  earlier  example  need  18,326  per  cell,   18,326*6=109.956  in  total.     December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   42  
  • 43. >  Mul&variate  Tes&ng   Mul0variate  Tes0ng  (commonly  called  MVT)  is  a  term  used  for  tes0ng  different   varia0ons  of  typical  elements  of  a  landing  page,  direct  mail  leRer,  etc.    The  aim  is   to  determine  which  combina0on  delivers  the  best  result.   Element  #1:  Prominent   headline   §  Element  #1   Element  #2:     –  2  varia0ons  (1  exis0ng,  1  new)   Suppor0ng     Call  to   content   §  Element  #2   ac0on   –  2  varia0ons  (1  exis0ng,  1  new)   Element  #3:  Social  proof  /   §  Element  #3:   trust   –  2  varia0ons  (1  exis0ng,  1  new)   Terms  and  condi0ons   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   43  
  • 44. >  MVT  –  Full  Factorial   A  full  factorial  design  requires  every  unique  combina0on  of  page  elements  and   can  therefore  be  very  sample  hungry.     Element   To  calculate  the   Headline   Call  to  Ac&on   Social  Proof   number  of   1   H1   CTA1   SP1   treatments  just  need   2   H1   CTA1   SP2   to  mul0ply  the   3   H1   CTA2   SP1   number  of  varia0ons   4   H1   CTA2   SP2   Treatment   for  each  factor   5   H2   CTA1   SP1   together:   6   H2   CTA1   SP2     7   H2   CTA2   SP1   2  x  2  x  2  =    8     8   H2   CTA2   SP2   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   44  
  • 45. >  MVT  –  Frac&onal  Factorial   The  alterna0ve  is  called  a  frac0onal  factorial  design  which  is  some  smaller  set  of   elements  combina0ons.  The  design  should  be  ‘balanced’  -­‐  every  varia0on  is   tested  the  same  number  of  0mes  and  each  combina0on  of  varia0ons  occurs  the   same  number  of  0mes.   Element   Headline   Call  to  Ac&on   Social  Proof   1   2   H1   CTA1   SP2   Reduced  sample   3   H1   CTA2   SP1   requirements   Treatment   4   4x18,326=73,304   5   H2   CTA1   SP1   6   7   8   H2   CTA2   SP2   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   45  
  • 46. >  Layout  Before  Content   §  Phase  #1:  A|B  test   –  Test  the  same  landing   Element  #1:  Prominent  headline   page  content  in   completely  different   layouts   §  Phase  #2:  MV  test   Suppor0ng     Element  #2:     –  Then  test  different   content   Call  to  ac0on   content  element   combina0ons  within  the   winning  layout   Element  #3:  Social  proof  /  trust   §  Phase  #3:  MV  test  (if   req’d)   –  Test  with  reduced  set  of   Terms  and  condi0ons   elements   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   46  
  • 47. >  Case  Study   §  Yes,  the  measurement  infrastructure  is  in  place   §  I  can  readily  execute  the  test  design   §  I  have  enough  sample  to  draw  valid  conclusions   §  Yes,  this  design  will  prove  the  value  of  tes0ng  in  my   business   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   47  
  • 49. Before  you  leap…   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   49  
  • 50. >  Sample  Selec&on   §  Each  sample  needs  to  be  alike  in  terms  of   their  predisposi0on  to  conversion   Conversion:  low  rate  credit  card  applica0on  form  comple0on   TEST   CONTROL   18-­‐34   35-­‐64   Mostly  Male   Mostly  Female   Mostly  Low  Income   Mostly  High  Income   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   50  
  • 51. >  Timing  is  Important    ‘Burst’  Non  BAU  ATL   Ideal  Test  Window   Campaign   Sales    Time   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   51  
  • 52. >  A|A  Tes&ng   §  Set  a  test  that  splits  your  visitors  50/50   between  the  same  treatment   –  Check  that  sample  sizes  are  actually  50/50   –  Is  there  should  be  no  difference  in  your   conversion  rates   –  Are  volumes  of  conversions  matching  other   repor0ng?   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   52  
  • 53. >  Measuring  your  performance   §  Propor0ons  (conversion  rates)   §  Means  (average  $s)   §  Variability  of  Means  (standard  devia0on)   Would  my  winning  treatment  s2ll  be  the  winner   across  all  my  customers/visitors/consumers?       §  Use  confidence  intervals   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   53  
  • 54. >  Confidence  Intervals   Conversion  Rate   Revenue  per   Response   A   B   C   A   B   C    Treatments    Treatments   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   54  
  • 55. >  Confidence  Intervals   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   55  
  • 56. >  Confidence  Interval  (%s)   ˆ ˆ p(1− p) ˆ p ±1.96 * n Where:   ^    p    =    response  rate    n  =    sample  size  for  treatment     The  value  of  1.96  reflects  a  95%  confidence  level   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   56  
  • 57. >  Confidence  Interval  Es&ma&on   Typical  Champion  (control)  vs.  Challenger  (test)  A|B  Test   Treatment   Champion   Challenger   Mailed   60850   52812   Responses   1055   455   Response  Rate   1.7   0.9   .017(1−.017) .009(1−.009) 1.7% ±1.96 * 0.9% ±1.96 * 60850 52812 1.7% ± 0.10% 0.9% ± 0.08% 1.69%  ≤  Champion  ≤    1.71%   0.82%  ≤  Challenger  ≤    0.98%   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   57  
  • 58. >  Confidence  Interval  Es&ma&on   p1 (1− p1 ) p2 (1− p2 ) p1 − p2 ±1.96 * + n1 n2 Where:    p1   =    response  rate  for  challenger    p2   =    response  rate  for  champion      n1  =    sample  size  for  challenger    n2  =    sample  size  for  challenger     The  value  of  1.96  reflects  a  95%  confidence  level   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   58  
  • 59. >  Confidence  Interval  Es&ma&on   Typical  Champion  (control)  vs.  Challenger  (test)  A|B  Test   Treatment   Champion   Challenger   Mailed   60850   52812   Responses   1055   455   Response  Rate   1.7   0.9   .009(1−.009) .017(1−.017) 0.9 −1.7 ±1.96 * + 52812 60850 −0.8 ± 0.13 -­‐0.93%  ≤  Difference  Between  Challenger  and  Champion  ≤    -­‐0.67%   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   59  
  • 60. >  Control  Group  Sample  Size   p1 (1− p1 ) p2 (1− p2 ) p1 − p2 ±1.96 * + n1 n2 pc (1− pc ) Rearranged:   nc = 2 " m % pt (1− pt ) $ ' − # 1.96 & nt Where:    nc    =    sample  size  for  control  group    nt    =    sample  size  for  test  group    pc  =    forecast  response  rate  for  control  group    nt  =    forecast  response  rate  for  test  group    m  =    desired  level  of  precision  (%  that  is  a  meaningful  difference)       The  value  of  1.96  reflects  a  95%  confidence  level   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   60  
  • 61. >  Control  Group  Sample  Size   We  have  50,000  customers  that  we  could  include  in  our  test  design,  what   would  our  control  sample  need  to  be  if  we  tested  40,000  customers,  our   ‘natural’  cross-­‐sell  rate  was  1.0%  and  an  incremental  response  rate  of  1.0%   points  would  be  deemed  to  be  meaningful?   .01(1−.01) nc = 2 " .01 % .02(.02 −.02) $ ' − # 1.96 & 40, 000 nc = 387 This  result  suggests  we  could  actually  test  more  of  our  available  customer  base   than  we  might  have  ini0ally  expected  (~40,600).   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   61  
  • 62. >  Confidence  intervals  ($s)   s x ±1.96 * n Where:    x    =    mean  revenue  among  treatment  responders    s  =    standard  devia0on  of  revenue  among  some  treatment’s  responders    n  =    number  of  responders  to  the  treatment     The  value  of  1.96  reflects  a  95%  level  of  confidence.     December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   62  
  • 63. >  Standard  Devia&on  (reminder)   Standard  devia0on  is  measure  of  the  variability  of  your  results,  whether  some   your  results  are  quite  different  to  your  mean  (average)  result  or  whether  they   are  quite  similar.   n ∑(x − x ) i i=1 s= n −1 Where:    n    =    number  of  observa0ons    xi  =    the  result  for  the  ith  observa0on    x  =    mean  (average)  for  your  data   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   63  
  • 64. >  Confidence  intervals  ($s)   2 2 s s 1 2 x1 − x2 ±1.96 * + n1 n2 Where:    x1  =    mean  value  among  among  responders  to  a  treatment    x2  =    mean  value  among  among  responders  to  a  different  treatment      s1  =    std.  dev.  of  value  among  one  treatment’s  responders    s2  =    std.  dev.  of  value  among  the  other  treatment’s  responders  n1  =    number  of  responders  to  the  treatment    n2  =    number  of  responders  to  the  other  treatment     The  value  of  1.96  reflects  a  95%  level  of  confidence.   n1  and  n2  is  sufficiently  large  to  es0mate  the  std.  dev.  in  the  popula0on  with   the  std.  dev.  of  the  sample.   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   64  
  • 65. >  Confidence  intervals  ($s)   Typical  Champion  (control)  vs.  Challenger  (test)  A|B  Test   Treatment   Champion   Challenger   Mailed   60850   52812   Responses   1055   455   Response  Rate   1.7   0.9   Total  Value   $36,925   $38,675   Mean  Value   $35   $85   Std  Dev   $30   $50   50 2 30 2 85 − 35 ±1.96 * + 50 ± 4.9 455 1055 At  a  minimum,  we  should  expect  an  incremental  $45.1  if  we  rolled  out  the   Challenger  crea0ve  as  BAU  (although  our  total  amount  of  incremental  revenue   would  be  less).   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   65  
  • 66. >  Case  Study   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   66  
  • 67. >  Main  Effects   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   67  
  • 68. >  Main  Effects   Typical  Landing  Page  Test   Element   Results   Call  to   Visitors   Conversion   Headline   Social  Proof   Conversions   Ac&on   Tested   Rate   1   H1   CTA1   SP1   1237   456   37%   2   H1   CTA1   SP2   1456   345   24%   3   H1   CTA2   SP1   1245   234   19%   4   H1   CTA2   SP2   2123   432   20%   Treatment   5   H2   CTA1   SP1   1342   234   17%   6   H2   CTA1   SP2   1102   123   11%   7   H2   CTA2   SP1   1365   700   51%   8   H2   CTA2   SP2   1243   643   52%   Treatment  #7  and  #8  were  the  clear  winners  and  It  looks  as  if  the  Headline  and   Call-­‐to-­‐Ac0on  were  much  bigger  drivers  of  posi0ve  performance  than  the  Social   Proof.  Lets  check  this!   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   68  
  • 69. >  Main  Effects   Typical  Landing  Page  Test   Element   Results   Call  to   Social   Visitors   Conversion   Headline   Ac&on   Proof   Tested   Rate   1   H1   CTA1   SP1   1237   37%   2   H1   CTA1   SP2   1456   24%   Avg  H1=24%   3   H1   CTA2   SP1   1245   19%   4   H1   CTA2   SP2   2123   20%   Treatment   5   H2   CTA1   SP1   1342   17%   6   H2   CTA1   SP2   1102   11%   7   H2   CTA2   SP1   1365   51%   Avg  H2=33%   8   H2   CTA2   SP2   1243   52%   The  Main  Effect  of  the  Headline  is  simply  the  (weighted)  average  conversion  rate   for  Headline  2  less  the  (weighted)  average  conversion  rate  for  Headline  1     (33%-­‐24%=9%)   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   69  
  • 70. >  Main  Effects   Typical  Landing  Page  Test   Main  Effect   Headline   9.4%   Element   Call  to  Ac&on   11.1%   Social  Proof   5.3%   In  actual  fact,  it  was  varia0ons  in  Call  to  Ac0on  that  had  the  most  posi0ve  impact   on  our  results,  improving  conversions  by  11.1%  points.   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   70  
  • 71. >  Interac&on  Effects   Typical  Landing  Page  Test   Element   Results   Call  to   Social   Visitors   Conversion   Headline   Ac&on   Proof   Tested   Rate   1   H1   CTA1   SP1   1237   37%   2   H1   CTA1   SP2   1456   24%   7   H2   CTA2   SP1   1365   51%   8   H2   CTA2   SP2   1243   52%   Treatment   3   H1   CTA2   SP1   1245   19%   4   H1   CTA2   SP2   2123   20%   5   H2   CTA1   SP1   1342   17%   6   H2   CTA1   SP2   1102   11%   An  interac0on  effect  is  present  where  the  performance  of  one  element  is   dependent  on  which  varia0on  of  the  another  variable  is  present.  In  this  example,   we  are  looking  at  whether  the  results  for  each  of  the    Headlines  is  dependent  on   which  Call-­‐to-­‐Ac0on.   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   71  
  • 72. >  Interac&on  Effects   Typical  Landing  Page  Test   Element   Results   Call  to   Social   Visitors   Conversion   Headline   Ac&on   Proof   Tested   Rate   1   H1   CTA1   SP1   1237   37%   2   H1   CTA1   SP2   1456   24%   Wtd  Avg  H1CTA1=30%   3   H1   CTA2   SP1   1245   19%   Wtd  Avg  H1CTA2=20%   4   H1   CTA2   SP2   2123   20%   Treatment   5   H2   CTA1   SP1   1342   17%   Wtd  Avg  H2CTA1=14%   6   H2   CTA1   SP2   1102   11%   7   H2   CTA2   SP1   1365   51%   Wtd  Avg  H2CTA2=51%   8   H2   CTA2   SP2   1243   52%   The  first  step  is  to  create  weighted  average  response  rates  between  for  each  of   the  two  factors  (ignoring  Social  Proof).     December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   72  
  • 73. >  Interac&on  Effects   Typical  Landing  Page  Test   Call  to  Ac&on   CTA1   CTA2   Diff   60%   H1   30%   20%   -­‐10%   40%   CTA1   20%   Headline   H2   14%   51%   37%   CTA2   0%   Diff   -­‐16%   31%   H1   H2   The  next  step  is  to  calculate  the  difference  in  performance  of  one  factor  across   different  variants  of  the  other  factor.  If  the  difference  of  this  difference  is  non-­‐ zero  (or  not  very  close  to  zero),  then  you  have  an  interac0on  effect.       For  example,  there  is  an  interac0on  effect  between  the  Headline  and  Call  to   Ac0on  as  the  difference  in  the  difference  in  performance  is  non-­‐zero  (31%-­‐ (-­‐16%)=47%).  This  is  very  large  interac0on  when  compared  to  the  Main  Effects!   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   73  
  • 74. >  Interac&on  Effects   Typical  Landing  Page  Test   Sociol  Proof   SP1   SP2   Diff   40%   H1   28%   22%   -­‐6%   SP1   20%   Headline   H2   34%   33%   -­‐1%   SP2   0%   Diff   -­‐6%   11%   H1   H2   Sociol  Proof   40%   SP1   SP2   Diff   CTA1   27%   18%   -­‐9%   20%   SP1   Call  to   SP2   CTA2   36%   32%   -­‐4%   Ac&on   0%   Diff   9%   14%   CTA1   CTA2   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   74  
  • 76. Document  Everything!   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   76  
  • 77. >  1.  Describe  the  test   §  Describe  the  outcome(s)  you’re  trying  to   influence   §  Describe  your  target  audience   §  Describe  the  different  treatments  including   copies  of  crea0ve   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   77  
  • 78. >  2.  Jus&fy  the  test  design   §  Detail  why  you’ve  chosen  the  par0cular     outcome  you’re  trying  to  influence   §  Detail  why  you’ve  chosen  the  consumers   you  are  trying  to  influence   §  Detail  why  your  interven0on  should  work   –  Past  test  results/Useability  test/Case  studies   –  Marketers  intui0on/logic   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   78  
  • 79. >  3.  Results  &  Conclusions   §  Detail  all  the  performance  results   §  Discuss  your  hypotheses   §  Future  tests   §  ‘Meta’  repor0ng  of  your  test  program     December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   79  
  • 80. >  The  Scien&fic  Method   Knowledge   Establish   Develop   Facts   Test(s)   Data   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   80  
  • 81. >  Case  Study   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   81  
  • 82. >  List  of  (Some)  Resources   §  hRp://visualwebsiteop0mizer.com/case-­‐ studies.php   §  hRp://www.whichtestwon.com/   §  hRp://www.feng-­‐gui.com   §  hRp://www.smashingmagazine.com/ 2010/06/24/the-­‐ul0mate-­‐guide-­‐to-­‐a-­‐b-­‐ tes0ng   December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   82  
  • 83. Contact  us   msavio@datalicious.com     Learn  more   blog.datalicious.com     Follow  us   twizer.com/datalicious     December  2011   ©  Datalicious  Pty  Ltd   83  
  • 84. Data  >  Insights  >  Ac&on