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Teknikal Analisis Terstruktur
- 2. Content: 1. Basic Theory 2. Price Pattern Analysis 3. Line Analysis
- 4. Definition John J. Murphy “Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets” • The study of market action through the use of charts for the purpose of forecasting future price trends Martin J. Pring “Technical Analysis Explained” • The art to identify a trend reversal at a relatively early stage and ride on that trend until the weight of the evidence shows or proves that the trend has reversed John D. Magee and Roberts D. Edward “Technical Analysis of Stocks Trends” • The science of recording in graphic form the actual history of trading and then deducing from that pictured history the probable future trend
- 5. What is TA? Everything (Method) that “use” Historical Data to find pattern & predict Future Movement is a Technical Analysis
- 6. Object : Price Volume Market Action Actual History of Market Action Recording in Graphic Form (Charts)
- 7. Price: OHLC
- 9. Price & Volume (Charts)
- 10. Objectives: Deducing The Future Trend Forecasting Future Price Trends or Trend Reversal
- 12. Technical Analysis Basic Theory Dow Jones Theory Supply Demand Trend Analysis Price Pattern Analysis Candlestick Bar Chart Gap Analysis Line Analysis Support & Resistance Trendline Channel Chart Pattern Analysis Reversal Pattern Continuation Pattern Hybrid Pattern Volume Analysis Spesific Theory Elliot Wave Gann Method Fibonacci Method Indicator
- 13. Indicators Momentum Stochastic Oscilator RSI Trend Following Moving Average MACD Volume On Balance Volume Volatility Bolllinger Band Average Trading Range Sentiment Market Breadth Advance Decline Quantitative Methods Standard Deviation Linear Regression Line
- 14. STRENGTHS OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Quick & Easy to Learn It does not involve accounting & financial data Can be used on any market & underlysing asset Help predict the trend of market
- 15. WEAKNESSES OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Biased Opinion Sometimes signal contradict each other Difficult to choose the best indicator Lack of Logical Reason
- 16. Technical Analysis Trend Analysis Timing Analysis Price Analysis Trading Strategy Decision & Action The Use of Technical Analysist
- 17. Basic Theory: Dow Theory Supply & Demand Trend Analysis
- 18. History Dow Jones Charles Dow and Edward Jones founded Dow Jones & Company in 1882
- 19. •1884 Stock Market Average (Index) : 9 railroads and 2 manufacture companies •1886 Stock Market Average: Industrial Index (12) & Rail Index (20) •1896 Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJI) •1928 DJI include 30 stock
- 20. Important US Stock Index: DJI 30 S&P 500 NASDAQ 100
- 21. Dow Theory 1. The Average Discounts Everything 2. There are three kinds of market 3. Primary Trends have three phases 4. Indices must confirm each other 5. Volume must confirm the trend 6. Trends persist until a clear reversal occurs definite signal
- 22. Technical Analysis’ Premises Price Discounts Everything Price Moves in Trend History Repeats Itself
- 23. Price Discounts Everything Price Politics Fundamentals Rumors Psychology
- 24. Price Moves in Trend Good Company – Uptrend Normal Company – Sideway Bad Company – Down Trend
- 25. Good Company – Uptrend
- 26. Normal Company – Sideway
- 27. Bad Company – Down Trend
- 30. IPO?
- 31. Supply & Demand Theory The law of supply and demand affects the stock market by determining prices Demand >Supply = Price Rise Demand < Supply = Price Fall
- 33. Trend • Uptrend • Downtrend • Sideway Strengthening Trend • Accelerating Uptrend • Accelerating Downtrend Against Trend • Deccelerating Uptrend • Deccelerating Downtrend • Technical Rebound • Technical Correction Trend Reversal • Bullish Reversal • Bearish Reversal Trend Analysis
- 35. What is Trend Analysis? Trend analysis is a technique used in technical analysis to predict the future stock price movements based on recently observed trend data.
- 36. 3 Types Trends: short, medium and long-term.
- 37. Trend Market Cycle Model
- 38. Short Term Market Cycle
- 45. Against Trend
- 47. Bearish Reversal
- 48. Price Pattern Analysis: Bar Chart Candlestick Gap
- 53. Line Chart
- 54. Bar Chart
- 57. Candle History Developed in the 18th century by Munehisa Honma a Japanese rice trader Introduced to the Western world by Steve Nisson
- 58. Candle Chart
- 62. Reminder:
- 63. Gap Analysis Price charts often have blank spaces = gaps which represent times when no shares were traded within a particular price range. Normally this occurs between the close of the market on one day and the next day's open.
- 64. Common Gap
- 65. Breakaway Gap
- 66. Runaway Gap
- 67. Exhaustion Gap
- 68. Gap Conclusion Type Volume Confirmation Signal Common Gap No Netral Break Away Gap Yes Gap-up = Bullish Gap-down = Bearish Run Away Gap Yes Gap-up = Bullish Gap-down = Bearish Exhaustion Gap No Gap-up = Bullish Gap-down = Bearish
- 71. Gap IPO
- 72. LINE ANALYSIS Support & Resistance Trendline Channel
- 73. Support & Resistance Technical analysts use support and resistance levels to identify price points on a chart where the probabilities favor a pause, or reversal, of a prevailing trend. Market psychology plays a major role as traders and investors remember the past and react to changing conditions to anticipate future market movement.
- 77. Breakout Sample
- 78. TRENDLINE Trendline are a visual representation of support and resistance in any time frame. Is a trend losing or gaining strength? Trendlines can be support and resistance. A break of a trendline after a trending period can be a meaningful signal.
- 81. Channel Trend channels are drawn with defined slope trendlines at the resistance and support levels of a security’s price series.
- 85. Test
- 86. Trader & Technical Analysist
- 87. Terima Kasih Request Education / Training: dani.setiawan@miraeasset.co.id