Dr Liam Bastick (Director of Corality, Melbourne) discusses cash flow management, cash flow forecasts, and the main problems associated with cash flows in different business structures.
2. Setting the scene
ASX fell 43% in 2008 – largest ever drop
Consumer confidence remains dented:
borrowing less
spending less
Economic growth is still slow
Recent ACCI Business Expectations Surveys suggest
indicators of sales revenue and profit levels were at their
lowest levels ever, with three in seven companies
expecting profits to fall
But are we focusing on the key issue..?
3. The importance of cash flow
Whether you are a manufacturer, retailer, distributor or service
provider, it is important to know and understand the internal and
external factors that can impact cash flow
The major goal of a business is not to make a profit, but to receive
the underlying cash – the process is not complete until then
Common factors that affect cash flow
Raw materials: Supply delays, sudden price increases and defective
material
Suppliers: with cash flow problems, tighter credit terms
Outsourcing to unsuitable firms
Within the business: defective goods, poor infrastructure, unplanned
inventory, design problems, delayed deliveries, low sales, selling on
credit, labour problems, fraud, obsolete technology, bad financial and
staffing decisions, slow moving inventory, employee shortages, lack of
expertise and equipment for a specialised job, wrong pricing
External: competition, economic fluctuations, changes in law
5. Physical structure
Simpler structures tend to consume less cash
More responsive and adaptable, less bureaucracy
Lower fixed costs, “lean and mean”
However, do need to consider rapid expansion issues
6. Operational structure
Importance of profit margins
Nature of costs:
Direct versus indirect
Variable versus fixed
Operational Leverage formula:
Fixed Costs
Total Costs
Understand drivers of the working capital cycle…
7. Responsibility structure
Culture of responsibility is important
Staff remuneration / bonuses can drive productivity and efficiencies
– if employed correctly
Motivation factors may differ for different types of business unit:
Revenue centres
Cost centres
Profit centres
Investment centres
Need to consider the business linkages,
e.g. Cash Generating Units
8. Cash flow management
The process of monitoring, analysing and adjusting business cash
flows
Why is it important?
Not enough to just focus on increasing sales and improving profit
margins
Must develop cash management policy to ensure cash flow follows the
increases in sales
Techniques
Financial projections
Develop budgets
Cost reduction strategy
Maintain low salaries and other controllable costs
Track accounts receivable, expenses, credit lines
9. Techniques
Proactive
Cash discount / price incentive schemes
Inventory management, e.g. Just In Time
Optimising assets‟ economic lives
Lease vs. buy
Reducing controllable costs (budget cuts)
Refinancing / amending capital structure
Reactive
Accounts Payable teams
Credit collection agencies vs. debt factoring
Supplier negotiations
Vertical integration / partnerships
10. Cash flow forecasts
Cash flow forecasts are vital for
Actively managing the cash to ensure survival
Obtaining proper advice as to whether to continue to trade
Obtaining and maintaining bank support
Helps keep control of the cash you have – ensures cash
is used efficiently
Can verify key drivers of cash inflows and outflows
Provides informative variance analysis
Should be updated regularly and may have small
periodicity
11. Modelling forecasts
Sometimes companies don‟t realise they are running out of cash
Need models, not just quarterly or monthly, but also weekly
Working Capital Management Model
Make critical decisions quickly
Ongoing view
What are the effects of COGS, payment timing?
Help you identify sustainable level of growth
Keep a close eye on cash flow, to forecast potential cash flow problems
and take steps to remedy them
Early detection
Ongoing monitoring
„What if‟ analysis
Answer questions
Are we you spending more cash now than what we‟ll receive in the
following month?
Which customers are slow payers?
12. Working capital cycle
Cash receipts Purchase
orders
Raw materials
Debtors / inventory
receivables
Work In Progress
inventory
Distribution /
transit / retail
stocking (sale
or return?)
Other production
Finished goods resources
inventory
13. Main cash flow problems
1. Failing to plan for market volatility and changing
conditions
2. Tying up capital in stock and equipment
3. Buying long-term assets out of current cash flow
4. Collecting accounts receivable too slowly
5. Failing to put excess cash to work
6. Overtrading