This document summarizes the key findings of the Second Census Project conducted by GVcepe and ABDI on the Brazilian private equity and venture capital industry. It finds that as of December 2009, there was $36.1 billion in committed capital to Brazil from 144 PE/VC firms. Over the 2005-2009 period, these firms made 414 new investments totaling $17.8 billion, with 103 total exits and 39 IPOs. The committed capital has grown significantly from 2000, increasing over 6 times since 2004 and doubling as a percentage of GDP. Pension funds and parent organizations make up the largest sources of committed capital.
1. Value
crea?on
and
the
challenge
of
building
a
PE
returns
database
Presented
by
Claudio
Vilar
Furtado
Execu7ve
Director,
GVcepe
cepe@fgvsp.br,
February
2011.
Copyright
@2011.
Fundação
Getúlio
Vargas
-‐
GVcepe
1
2. Thanks
to
our
Sponsors
and
Partners
2nd
Census
Project
Sponsor
Founding
Members
&
Sponsor
Strategic
Partners
Copyright
@2011.
Fundação
Getúlio
Vargas
-‐
GVcepe
2
3. Agenda
1. The
Second
Census
Project
2. PE
Returns
in
Key
Regions
3. Nature
of
PE
Returns
4. PE
Returns
in
Brazil
5. Closing
Remarks
Copyright
@2011.
Fundação
Getúlio
Vargas
-‐
GVcepe
3
4. The
Second
Census
Project
Gather
and
interpret
data
to
reflect
the
reality
of
the
Brazilian
PE&VC
industry
and
its
impact
on
the
economy.
80%
of
industry
par7cipants
surveyed
180
144
PE&VC
Managing
Surveyed
Organiza?ons
Copyright
@2011.
Fundação
Getúlio
Vargas
-‐
GVcepe
Source:2nd
Census
of
the
Brazilian
PE&VC
Industry
–
ABDI/FGV
4
5. Industry
Overview
as
of
December
2009
• US$
36.1
bn
Commi`ed
Capital
• Main
LPs:
Pensions
22%,
Parent
Orgs.
Investors
18%,
Endowments
10%,
GP
Orgs
9%,
Family
Offices
9%
• 144
PE&VC
Firms
General
Partners
• 258
Investment
Vehicles
• Est.
1,593
Professionals
&
Staff
•
502
porVolio
cos.,
Dec
09
•
2005-‐2009
Period:
PorVolio
Companies
•
414
new
investments
•
103
total
exits
•
39
IPOs
Copyright
@2011.
Fundação
Getúlio
Vargas
-‐
GVcepe
Source:2nd
Census
of
the
Brazilian
PE&VC
Industry
–
ABDI/FGV
5
6. Expansion
of
the
Asset
Class
Committed Capital allocated to Brazil (US$ Bn). Committed Capital as % of GDP
40
2.3%
2.5%
36
35
2%
30
2%
15%
p.a
25
27
1.5%
20
1.2%
1%
2
x
15
1%
10
13
2
x
0.5%
5
6
0
0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005 2006
2007
2008 2009
The
evolu2on
of
commi8ed
capital
is
impressive,
increasing
more
than
6
2mes
since
2004
and
2
fold
as
percentage
of
GDP.
Copyright
@2011.
Fundação
Getúlio
Vargas
-‐
GVcepe
Source:2nd
Census
of
the
Brazilian
PE&VC
Industry
–
ABDI/FGV
6
7. Commi^ed
Capital
December
2009
(US$
MM)
Types
Private
Govt.
Total
%
Commi`ed
Capital
Dec.
2008
28,984
Tradi?onal
*
27.168
935
28.103
78%
Fundraising
(Vehicles
in
US$)
3.093
Corporate
Venture
**
350
-‐
350
1%
Fundraising
(Vehicles
in
R$)
2.979
Infrastructure
***
3.955
-‐
3.955
11%
Reduc?ons
(Vehicles
in
US$) -‐1.531
Real
Estate
2.734
-‐
2.734
8%
Reduc?ons
(Vehicles
in
R$) -‐732
Timber
970
-‐
970
3%
Exchange
Rate
Effect
3.318
Total
35.177
935
36.112
100%
Commi`ed
Capital
Dec.
09
36.112
*
Investment
vehicles
with
focus
on
manufacturing,
trade,
services,
agriculture
and
tradi7onal
businesses.
**
Subsidiaries
of
industrial
corpora7ons.
***
Investment
vehicles
dedicated
exclusively
to
oil
&
gas,
energy
and
self
defined
infrastructure
funds.
NOTE:
Reduc7ons
refer
to
discon7nued
opera7ons,
termina7on
of
funds,
alloca7on
to
Brazil
changes
and
reduc7ons
of
commiGed
capital
by
investors.
Copyright
@2011.
Fundação
Getúlio
Vargas
-‐
GVcepe
Source:2nd
Census
of
the
Brazilian
PE&VC
Industry
7
8. Diversified
Fund
Investor
Base
Commi`ed
Capital
by
Investment
Main
Types
of
Investors
Vehicle’s
Legal
Structure
*
All
vehicle
structures
according
to
Brazilian
PE&VC
regula7on
CVM
391,
209,
402.
NOTE:
Parent
Organiza7on
includes
Corporate
Ventures
and
Banks’
cap7ve
PE&VC
subsidiaries.
Copyright
@2011.
Fundação
Getúlio
Vargas
-‐
GVcepe
Source:2nd
Census
of
the
Brazilian
PE&VC
Industry
–
ABDI/FGV
8
9. Investment
and
Fundraising
(US$
bn.)
Es2mate
of
US$
17.8
bn.
of
”Dry
Powder”
ready
to
be
invested
as
of
December
2009
Notes:
Fundraising
based
on
sample
of
258
investment
vehicles
by
144
PE&VC
Managing
Organisa7ons.
Investment
based
on
Sample
of
394
and
95
Investments
made
by
144
and
45
PE&VC
Managing
Organisa7ons
in
2005-‐2008
and
2009
respec7vely.
Copyright
@2011.
Fundação
Getúlio
Vargas
-‐
GVcepe
Source:2nd
Census
of
the
Brazilian
PE&VC
Industry
–
ABDI/FGV
9
10. Investments
by
Sectors
of
Economic
Ac?vity
(US$
MM)
2005-‐2008
(Includes
New
and
Follow-‐on
Investments)
Food
and
Beverages
24%
Various
Industries*
14%
Civil
Construc?on/Real
Estate
13%
Retail
12%
Financial
Services
11%
Energy
and
Oil
4%
Educa?on
4%
Communica?on
4%
Agribusiness
3%
IT
and
Electronics
3%
Pharmaceu?cal/Medical/Aesthe?cs
3%
Entertainment/Tourism
2%
Extrac?ve
Industries
2%
Infrastructure
-‐
other
1%
*
Various
Industries:
E.g.:
Chemicals,
Mechanic,
Sample 2005-2008: 394 investments by 144 PE&VC Orgs. Electric,
Metallurgic,
Packaging,
Tex7les.
Sample 2009: 95 investments by 45 PE&VC Orgs. **
Various
Services:
E.g.:
Call
Center,
Consul7ng.
Copyright
@2011.
Fundação
Getúlio
Vargas
-‐
GVcepe
Source:2nd
Census
of
the
Brazilian
PE&VC
Industry
–
ABDI/FGV
10
11. Investments
by
Sectors
of
Economic
Ac?vity
in
US$
MM
2009
(Includes
New
and
Follow-‐on
Investments)
54%
Energy
and
Oil
39%
10%
Financial
Services
14%
9%
Entertainment/Tourism
11%
6%
Extrac?ve
Industries
8%
5%
Transporta?on
and
Logis?cs
Services
7%
5%
Including
all
investments
Educa?on
6%
3%
Agribusiness
4%
Excluding
one
US$
0.765bn
Infrastructure
-‐
other
2%
investment
in
energy
transmission
Various
Services**
2%
Pharmaceu?cal/Medical/Aesthe?cs
1%
Food
and
Beverages
1%
Retail
1%
1%
*
Various
Industries:
E.g.:
Chemicals,
Mechanic,
Electric,
Various
Industries*
Metallurgic,
Packaging,
Tex7les.
IT
and
Electronics
1%
**
Various
Services:
E.g.:
Call
Center,
Consul7ng.
1%
Sample 2005-2008: 394 investments by 144 PE/VC Orgs.
Civil
Construc?on/Real
Estate
Sample 2009: 95 investments by 45 PE&VC Orgs.
Copyright
@2011.
Fundação
Getúlio
Vargas
-‐
GVcepe
Source:2nd
Census
of
the
Brazilian
PE&VC
Industry
–
ABDI/FGV
11
12. New
Investment
Vehicles
Raised
50
47
45
40
37
35
31
30
25
19
20
15
13
11
10
9
8
10
7
7
7
7
5
3
1
0
95
and
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
before
30
to
50
new
investment
vehicles
raised
p.a.
since
2008,
vigorous
entry
and
expansion
in
the
industry.
Note:
215
Investment
Vehicles
reported
by
120
PE/VC
Managing
Orgs.
Copyright
@2011.
Fundação
Getúlio
Vargas
-‐
GVcepe
Source:2nd
Census
of
the
Brazilian
PE&VC
Industry
–
ABDI/FGV
12
13. Exits
&
Dives?tures
70
Dives7tures
2005
-‐
2009
(Including
Total
&
Par7al)
61
60
2
48
15
50
42
4
3
37
40
3
4
24
12
4
6
Write-‐off
30
27
8
1
12
10
Buyback
5
20
11
Trade
Sale
4
10
6
Secondary
17
19
16
10
Sale
8
IPO
4
0
1
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
NOTE:
the
sample
contains
151
dives7tures
(107
total
&
44
par7al)
from
2005
to
2008
&
37
dives7tures
(30
total
&
7
par7al)
in
2009
with
informa7on
about
the
exit
mechanism.
Copyright
@2011.
Fundação
Getúlio
Vargas
-‐
GVcepe
Source:2nd
Census
of
the
Brazilian
PE&VC
Industry
–
ABDI/FGV
13
14. Agenda
1. The
Second
Census
Project
2. PE
Returns
in
Key
Regions
3. Nature
of
PE
Returns
4. PE
Returns
in
Brazil
5. Closing
Remarks
Copyright
@2011.
Fundação
Getúlio
Vargas
-‐
GVcepe
14
15. VC
Gross
Returns:
Sand
Hill
Econometrics
VC Index: January 1992 - June 2010
(December 31, 1991 = 100)
3,500
2010-Q2
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Dec/91
Jun/92
Dec/92
Jun/93
Dec/93
Jun/97
Dec/97
Jun/98
Dec/98
Jun/99
Dec/99
Jun/00
Dec/00
Jun/01
Dec/01
Jun/02
Dec/02
Jun/03
Dec/03
Jun/07
Dec/07
Jun/08
Dec/08
Jun/09
Dec/09
Jun/10
Dec/94
Dec/95
Dec/96
Dec/04
Dec/05
Dec/06
Jun/94
Jun/95
Jun/96
Jun/04
Jun/05
Jun/06
The
Sand
Hill
Index
had
an
annualized
return
of
16.9%
from
end
1988
to
the
end
of
2004.
More
recently
it
performed
at
an
annualized
return
of
8%
from
2005
to
the
end
of
2009.
Source:
Sand
Hill
Econometrics
available
at:
h^p://www.sandhillecon.com/index-‐download.php
15
16. PE
Net
IRRs
to
LPs
in
Key
Regions
by
C.A.
Compara?ve
End-‐to-‐End
Returns
by
Region
as
of
09/30/2009.
Absolute
Region
5
year
10
year
%
Change
Change
La?n
America
&
Caribbean
PE
19.06%
1.71%
17.35
1015%
Emerging
Market
VC
&
PE
12.83%
6.63%
6.2
94%
US
Buyout
10.44%
7.68%
2.76
36%
Western
Europe
VC
euro
-‐2.01%
-‐4.13%
2.12
51%
Source:
Cambridge
Associates
September
2009
Quarterly
report.
16
17. PE
Returns
in
Emerging
Markets
by
IESE
&
BCG
IFC
experience
in
emerging
markets,
period
2000-‐2006.
12
points
It
has
improved
greatly
since
2000.
17.3%
5.3%
4.4%
Before
1990
1990
-‐1999
2000
-‐
2006
Notes:
IFC’s
fund-‐level
data,
BCG
analysis.
Data
reflect
176
PE
funds
in
EM.
The
return
is
net-‐of-‐fees
&
carried
interest,
the
cutoff
for
fund
data
was
2006
vintage
year.
Source:
New
Markets,
New
Rules,
BCG
&
IESE
Report,
November
2010.
17
18. Caselli´s
Prime
Work:
PE
Returns
in
Italy
Carefin-‐Bocconi
(Gross-‐of-‐fees)
SAMPLE
NATURE
OF
DEALS
Investment
period*
1999
-‐
2005
Unleveraged
Deals
70%
Investments
804
Sample
by
Stage
Leveraged
Deals
30%
PE
Funds
87
Man.
Cos.
58
Median
Sales
EUR
126
M.
Turnaro
unds
*exited
no
later
than
'07
Median
EBITDA
EUR
16
M.
6%
Early
Stage
FINDINGS
16%
PE
Growth
Average
IRR
33.17%
52%
Largest
IRRs
Buyouts
Buyouts
26%
Stock
Market
Index
17.95%
2
yr
Government
Bonds
8%
Conclusions:
3.
Contractual
agreements
(exit
ratchets,
lockups)
1. IRR
is
mainly
driven
by
growth
in
sales,
ROA
and
have
a
posi2ve
effect
on
growth.
ROE.
4.
Longer
holding
period
investments
awarded
2. IRR
affected
by
put
op2ons
and
tag
along
rights.
with
higher
IRRs.
Source:
Caselli,
S.,
2009,
Explaining
Returns
in
Private
Equity
Investments,
Carefin
Bocconi.
18
19. Agenda
1. The
Second
Census
Project
2. PE
Returns
in
Key
Regions
3. Nature
of
PE
Returns
4. PE
Returns
in
Brazil
5. Closing
Remarks
Copyright
@2011.
Fundação
Getúlio
Vargas
-‐
GVcepe
19
20. Nature
of
PE
Returns
in
Mature
Markets
Evidence
of
UK
PE
disaggregate
returns
100%
90%
80%
56%
Half
of
returns
come
70%
from
impact
of
60%
leverage.
50%
100%
40%
30%
22%
20%
44%
10%
22%
22%
0%
PE
management
Underlying
stock
Impact
of
leverage
Gross
IRR
market
sector
Source:
How
profitable
has
Private
Equity
been
and
where
have
those
profits
come
from?
UK
study,
Julian
Francs,
based
on
a
paper
and
presenta?on
by
Viral
V.
Acharya,
and
Conor
Kehoe.
20
21. Nature
of
PE
Returns
in
Brazil
Drivers
of
Mature
Brazil
Comments
on
the
Brazilian
model
returns
Markets
Leverage
Much
less
reliant
on
debt.
Growth
Key
component
for
crea7ng
IRR.
Many
more
opportuni7es
with
macro
Mul7ple
condi7ons
improving
and
opportuni7es
for
expansion
proprietary
deals.
Greater
need
of
the
type
of
skills
and
Efficiency
gains
business
knowledge
provided
by
PE
firms.
It
is
not
driven
by
leverage
and
aggressive
cost
cu`ng;
rather
IRR
is
driven
mostly
by
growth
and
efficiency
(focus
on
opera2onal
improvement).
Source:
Is
Brazil
a
good
opportunity
for
PE
investments?,
Casabona
2010.
Note:
9
PE&VC
firms
based
in
London
and
Sao
Paulo
were
surveyed
.
21
22. Key
Company-‐Industry
Features
for
PE
Investments
in
Brazil
Brazilian
Economy
ü High
growth
rates
ü Fragmented
(Roll
up
strategy)
ü Non-‐cyclical
sectors
Industry
ü Health
compe77veness
(no
price
war)
ü Low
governmental
regula7on
Investment
ü Aligned
with
GPs
exper7se
Thesis
Company
ü Lack
of
financial
sophis7ca7on
from
management
Majority
stake
ü Succession
problems
Company
ü Good
management
team
Minority
stake
ü Domain
knowledge
of
the
sector
from
management
Company’s
common
ü Stable
cash
flow
ü High
entry
barriers
features
ü Low
fixed
costs
ü High
market
share
&
strong
brand
ü Low
Capex
ü Low
customer
concentra7on
ü High
profit
margins
ü A`rac7ve
entry
valua7on
ü Scaling
business
model
ü Clear
exit
strategy
Source:
Is
Brazil
a
good
opportunity
for
PE
investments?,
Casabona
2010.
Note:
9
PE&VC
firms
based
in
London
and
Sao
Paulo
were
surveyed
22
23. Agenda
1. The
Second
Census
Project
2. PE
Returns
in
Key
Regions
3. Nature
of
PE
Returns
4. PE
Returns
in
Brazil
5. Closing
Remarks
Copyright
@2011.
Fundação
Getúlio
Vargas
-‐
GVcepe
23
24. Challenge
of
Crea?ng
a
PE
Returns
Database
The
challenge
• Less
than
50
PE/VC
Managing
Organiza?ons
have
more
than
10
years
inves?ng
in
the
country,
of
which
60%
have
completed
the
en?re
investment-‐to-‐exit
cycle.
• Fund-‐level
returns
are
not
yet
available.
• The
performance
repor?ng
requirement
has
been
newly
introduced
by
self-‐
regula?on
in
December
2010.
A
changing
scenario
• Significant
and
stable
growth
in
the
industry.
• GVcepe
has
created
a
comprehensive
database
and
data
collec?on
system
at
the
poruolio
company
and
fund
levels
to
supply
the
industry
with
the
properly
constructed
performance
data.
Copyright
@2011.
Fundação
Getúlio
Vargas
-‐
GVcepe
24
26. NAV
for
each
Investment
Vehicle
Copyright
@2011.
Fundação
Getúlio
Vargas
-‐
GVcepe
26
27. Individual
Investments
MOI*
Exited
2004/05
-‐
2010
MOI
/
COC
Median
mul7ples
of
investment
30%
100%
90%
Quar7les
Range
Median
25%
80%
70%
Top
10
>
13.42
20%
60%
Rela?ve
Frequency
3rd
5
-‐
9.9
6.6
15%
Cumula?ve
Frequency
50%
40%
2nd
3
-‐
4.9
3.45
10%
30%
Lower
1
-‐
2.9
2
5%
20%
10%
0%
0%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Above
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Mul7ple
of
investment
Note:
Median
holding
period
(4.2
years)
and
median
exit
value
(US$
86.8).
Sample:
25
Deals,
15
IPOs
&
10
Trade
Sales.
7
cases
in
R$
and
18
cases
in
US$.
Source:2nd
Census
of
the
Brazilian
PE&VC
Industry
27
28. Individual
Investments
IRR
Exited
2004/05
-‐
2010
Median
IRRs
18%
IRR
100%
16%
90%
Quar7les
Range
Median
14%
80%
Top
100
>
162%
70%
12%
Rela?ve
Frequency
3rd
50
-‐
99
66%
60%
10%
Cumula?ve
Frequency
2nd
25
-‐
49.9
37%
50%
8%
Lower
0
-‐
24.9
18%
40%
6%
30%
4%
20%
2%
10%
0%
0%
0%
45%
90%
135%
180%
225%
270%
315%
360%
Note:
Median
holding
period
(4.2
years)
and
median
exit
value
(US$
86.8).
IRR
Returns
Sample:
25
Deals,
15
IPOs
&
10
Trade
Sales.
7
cases
in
R$
and
18
cases
in
US$.
Source:2nd
Census
of
the
Brazilian
PE&VC
Industry
28
29. Excess
returns
over
CDI*
Exited
2004/05
-‐
2010
Annual
returns
in
excess
of
CDI*
Median
excess
returns
over
CDI
30%
100%
95%
90%
Quar7les
Range
Median
25%
85%
80%
75%
70%
20%
65%
Top
170
>
271%
Rela?ve
Frequency
Cumula?ve
Frequency
60%
55%
3rd
130
-‐
169.9
141%
15%
50%
45%
40%
2nd
105
-‐
129.9
110%
10%
35%
30%
25%
Lower
80
-‐
104.9
100%
20%
5%
15%
10%
5%
0%
0%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
200%
220%
240%
260%
280%
300%
320%
Note:
Median
holding
period
(4.2
years)
and
median
exit
value
(US$
86.8).
*CDI,
Interbank
Loan-‐Rate
Sample:
25
Deals,
15
IPOs
&
10
Trade
Sales.
7
cases
in
R$
and
18
cases
in
US$.
Source:2nd
Census
of
the
Brazilian
PE&VC
Industry
29
30. Required
Returns
by
GPs
for
Single
Investments
Expected
median
nominal
return
(R$
%
p.a.)
42.5
35
30
26.25
25
22.5
22.5
19.75
19.5
Macroeconomic
data
(%)
CDI
11.14
Gov
Bonds
(LTN)*
12.5
Infla7on
(IPCA)**
5.9
Expected
Infla7on
4.5
*LTN
01/01/12
**Last
12
months
Sources:
h^p://www.portalbrasil.net/ipca.htm
h^p://www.ce?p.com.br/
h^p://www.tesouro.fazenda.gov.br
Focus
Forecast
2011
This
sample
consists
of
77
answers
by
71
PE&VC
managing
organiza?ons.
Copyright
@2011.
Fundação
Getúlio
Vargas
-‐
GVcepe
Source:2nd
Census
of
the
Brazilian
PE&VC
Industry
30
31. Agenda
1. The
Second
Census
Project
2. PE
Returns
in
Key
Regions
3. Nature
of
PE
Returns
4. PE
Returns
in
Brazil
5. Closing
Remarks
Copyright
@2011.
Fundação
Getúlio
Vargas
-‐
GVcepe
31
32. Closing
remarks
Ø The
official
results
of
the
Second
Census
will
be
released
on
March
1st.
Ø GVcepe
is
concluding
a
comprehensive
industry
research
with
ABDI’s
government
support
and
ABVCAP’s
ins?tu?onal
backing.
What
is
next?
Ø To
provide
a
complete
performance
database,
GVcepe
is
working
on
performance
data
with
a
pre-‐selected
“Best
Prac?ces
Group”.
Ø
Get
commitment
from
PE&VC
firms
to
fill
out
the
performance
data
ques?onnaires.
Copyright
@2011.
Fundação
Getúlio
Vargas
-‐
GVcepe
32
33. Best
Prac?ces
Reference
Group
PE/VC Managing Organizations
1 Advent International
2
3
AG Angra Investimentos
Angra Partners Gestão de Recursos e Assessoria Financeira
Best
Prac7ces
Group
4 Antera Gestão de Recursos S/A
5 Axxon Group
6 BNDESPAR
7 Brookfield
8 BTG Gestora de Recursos Ltda 12%
9 CRP Companhia de Participações 21%
Angels
10 Darby Overseas Investments, Ltd. 4%
11 Darby-Stratus Infrastructure
12 DGF Investimentos
13 FIR Capital Partners Gestão de Investimentos S.A. Private
Equity
14 Floripa Angels
15 Gávea Angels Seed
/
Venture
16 Gávea Investimentos
17 General Atlantic
18 GP Investments 63%
19 InfraBrasil
20 Modal Administradora de Recursos S.A.
21 NSG Capital Administração de Recursos S.A.
22 Pátria Investimentos
23 Prosperitas Investimentos S.A.
24 Rio Bravo Investimentos S.A. Together
they
represent
50%
of
the
25 São Paulo Anjos
26 Tarpon Investments Industry’s
Commi8ed
Capital.
27 TMG Capital
Copyright
@2011.
Fundação
Getúlio
Vargas
-‐
GVcepe
Source:2nd
Census
of
the
Brazilian
PE&VC
Industry
33
34. Thank
you
for
your
a^en?on
Presenta7on
co-‐authors
Prof.
Cláudio
V.
Furtado
Alexander
Appel
Victor
C.
Casabona
Filho
Phone:
+55
(11)
3285-‐4222
Researcher
Sloan
Fellowship
2010
claudio.furtado@fgv.br
GVcepe
London
Business
School
Phone:
+55
(21)
8369-‐69669
Phone:
+44
(0)
7872
490666
alexander.appel@fgv.br
vcasabona.sln2010@london.edu
Copyright
@2011.
Fundação
Getúlio
Vargas
-‐
GVcepe
34