1. Washington State Ocean Energy
Conference
Deep Water Wind and an Ocean Energy Economy
Charlie Brandt, Ph.D.
Director
Coastal Sciences Division &
Marine Sciences Laboratory
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Bremerton, WA
November 8, 2011
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2. Outline
Forces changing the national
energy picture
The case for ocean-based
renewable energy
Resource potential
Value creation

3. Energy, Population, and Economics
15,000 4,200
4,150
14,000
Population and
4,100 economy drive
energy demand
Energy Consumption (MMWh)
4,050
13,000
Both drivers will
GDP (B$)
4,000
continue to increase
12,000 3,950
over the coming
3,900 decades, though net
11,000
3,850
consumption has not
kept pace over past
10,000
3,800 3 years due to
3,750 recession
9,000 3,700
280 290 300 310 320
US Population 2000–2009 (Millions)
http://www.bea.gov/
http://www.census.gov/popest/states/NST-ann-est.html
3
http://www.eia.doe.gov/electricity/epm/table1_1.html

4. Nation’s Electricity Runs on Coal
Coal Natural Gas
Nuclear Hydroelectric Conventional
Other Renewables Petroleum
Nation generated 4,120
Other Gases Hydrogen, batteries TWh in 2010, a 4%
2,500 increase over 2009
TWh
45% of 2010
2,000 consumption was
supplied by coal
1,500
Conventional hydro
remains the largest
―renewable‖ source
1,000 (6%), although only
72% of its high in
500
1997
-
4Data from http://www.eia.doe.gov/electricity/epm/table1_1.html

5. Global Coal Market Drives Electricity Price
12 47
US coal price steadily
increasing since 2004 due to 11.5
rise in demand by China and 42
India 11
Average increase prior to
Residential (¢/kWh)
Coal Fuel ($/ton)
10.5
2003 – 0%/yr 37
Average increase after 2003 10
– 8%/yr
32
9.5
Average retail price of
electricity shows same trend 9
(R2 = 0.98 for 1996-2010) 27
8.5
8 22
At end of 2011, China and India will be importing 337 Mmt, 78%
increase over 2010 imports. At end of last year, China was paying
$129/ton offloaded – Australia and Europe export price was $112/ton
5Data from http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epm/table5_3.html and /table4_1.html, Bloomberg Businessweek Dec 21, 2010

6. Goals for Renewable Electricity Generation
DOE – 30% by 2030
Navy – 50% of shore-based energy by 2020
State Goal Date State Goal Date
AZ 15% 2025 CT 27% 2020
CA 33% 2020 IL 25% 2025
CO 20% 2020 MA 15% 2020
KS 20% 2020 MD 20% 2022
MT 15% 2015 ME 40% 2017
OR 25% 2025 NH 25% 2025
NM 20% 2020 NY 25% 2013
NV 25% 2025 RI 16% 2019
UT 20% 2025 VA 15% 2025
WA 15% 2020 VT 25% 2025
Data from http://www.pewclimate.org/what_s_being_done/in_the_states/rps.cfm

7. Ocean Renewable Energy
Hydrokinetic: US DOE’s
definition focuses on energy
from unimpounded moving
water — tides, currents, rivers,
waves
Offshore wind: Land-based
wind on steroids
Ocean Thermal Energy
Conversion (OTEC):
exploiting thermal gradients
with depth to drive heat engine
or ―steam‖
Algal biofuels: Largely marine
micro and macroalgae used as
biomass feedstock or
―biodiesel‖

8. Why Ocean Renewable Energy?
Large renewable energy source, with best attributes relative to demand
Coastal resources far exceed total US energy demand
Higher/steadier wind speeds
Highly predictable waves and tides 40
Millions
Coastal
High productivity 35 Inland
Resource is near load centers 30
52% of US population lives in coastal counties
25
Population
28 coastal states consume 78% of nation’s
electricity 20
Simplifies transmission requirements
15
Reduced environmental effects
10
Low to no noise and visual impacts (human pops)
Few bats and birds 5
Reduced land/sea use conflicts 0
Significant economies of scale 5 15 25
Retail electricity price (¢/kWh)
35
Larger devices
Larger arrays
Best or only opportunity for utility-scale renewables
in parts of the country

9. Resource Base – Wave Energy
Greatest potential at higher
latitudes
Deepwater (>100m) resource 1-
10 TW
Well conditioned
Predictable
Consistent
Effective for remote coastal
communities
WA / OR / northern CA
Average annual wave power
40-60 kW/m shoreline
Potential to provide over 20
GW of electrical energy, on
average (over 40 GW in
winter – Dec-Feb)
Compare to total electricity
generation in 2008 for
WA/OR/CA of 43 GW
Wave energy data from Fugro OCEANOR, April 2010 and World Energy Council 2007
Electricity data from EIA

10. Resource Base – Tidal Power
Greatest potential above 45° North, Sea of Cortez, and
Bay of Fundy to Nova Scotia
No international assessment as yet – but estimates range
from 450 GW to 3 TW
cm
http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/fileadmin/images/data/Products/a
uxiliaires/m2_amp_fes99.jpg
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11. Resource Base – Offshore Wind
Over 4 TW of extractable power –
4 times US generating capacity
Highest wind speeds and
fewer competing uses further
from shore
Best winds over water depths
> 30 m (~100 ft) – Floating
Platforms
GW
734 GW
0-30 m 30-60 m >60 m
Hawaii
930 GW Gulf of Mexico
South Atlantic
Mid Atlantic
1256 GW New England
Great Lakes
Pacific Northwest
California
0 200 400 600 800
637 GW 594 GW
GW
NREL (2010) Assessment of Offshore Wind Energy Resources for the United States

12. Resource Base – Ocean Thermal
Limited to waters with >20°C temperature differential
with depth
Estimated 5 TW global resource potential without
disrupting vertical structure – Nihous (2007) J Ener. Res.
Technol.
Mean ΔT (surface – 1000 m)
18-
20°C
20-
22°C
22-
24°C
>24°C
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13. PNW Ocean Energy – the Numbers
Offshore wind, wave, and tidal power resource potential exceeds by
many times the total energy use of Washington and Oregon
5 GW tidal
15 GW wave
415 GW offshore wind
19 GW total generation from all sources in 2008
Pacific NW Ocean Energy as % of 2008 Generation
Tidal 26%
Wave 77%
Offshore… 2148%
0% 500% 1000% 1500% 2000% 2500%
Data from EIA, EPRI, NREL, PNNL

14. Challenges for Offshore Energy Farms
Siting Technical design
Towers and foundations
Site assessments (physical and
biological) Rotors/Turbines/Oscillators
Accessibility and reliability of Drivetrains
instrumentation Control systems
Increased data quality Pre- and post-installation
Improved predictive site Vessels for installation and
measurement
maintenance
Design environments Current wind fleet is European
Water depth
Active condition monitoring
Currents
Preventive maintenance
Seabed migration
Technology standards
Wind/tidal conditions
Ensure reliability
Wave conditions
Enable permitting and investment
Severe conditions
Biofouling Transmission and grid
interconnection
Corrosion
HVDC
Icing
Balancing
Seabed composition
Adapted from US Offshore Wind Collaborative (2009) US Offshore Wind Energy: A Path Forward

15. Components of Building Ocean Energy
Manufacture Siting
• Turbines • Engineering –
• Rotors meteorology, wave, current, seab
• Towers ed geology, bathymetry
• Foundations/moorings • Environmental –
• Cable biota, navigation, fisheries, seab
• Vessels – ed use
construction, cable- • Logistics –
laying, O&M ports/vessels, substations, trans
mission
Permitting
Marine Operations • Environmental
• Turbine & rotor installation • Stakeholders
• Tower Installation • Compliance monitoring
• Foundation/mooring • Compliance control
installation
• Offshore substation Balance of Plant
installation • Monitoring & control systems
• Collection/transmission • Substation – offshore and onshore
•
system installation
Utilizing coastal assets in Transmission
• O&M
maritime, manufacturing, engi
neering, and environmental
fields
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16. Manufacturing and Maritime Industries
RenewableUK assessed manufacturing
and marine needs to support a ―Healthy
Industry‖ development scenario
Delivering 23.2 GW offshore wind by
2020
Adding 3.2 GW/yr thereafter
Using 5% of PNW ocean resource, would
require
145 installation vessels
133 O&M vessels
5,200 km HVDC cable
1.6M km HVAC cable
4,700 km array cable
9,000 turbines, towers, and
foundations
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17. Economic Impacts
Capital investment of $3.7M per MW✝
Rate of return on investment
4.4 direct jobs per MW*
$893k/yr economic benefit per MW*
Impact of DOE Offshore Wind Innovation and
Demonstration initiative (54 GW by 2030)
238,000 direct jobs
$1.56B/yr economic benefit
Impact of PNW ocean energy potential✠
97,000 direct jobs
$196M/yr economic benefit
✝ US offshore wind calculated from LBNL 2010 2009 Wind Technologies Market Report and
EWEA 2009 The Economics of Wind Energy
* Calculated from IEA Wind Energy 2010 2009 Annual Report and EWEA 2009 The Economics of
Wind Energy
17 ✠ Assuming 5% of 440 GW wind/wave/tidal resource is developed

18. Summary
Energy demand is increasing as a
function of economic growth
Energy price is increasing as a
function of global demand for fossil
resources
Greatest demand and highest price
is within coastal states
Washington has abundant tidal,
wave, and offshore wind resources
Ocean energy is a nascent industry
in the US; cooperation to resolve
challenges is important to
sustainability
Significant impact of successful
ocean energy development on jobs
and economy of Washington’s
coastal regions

19. Thank you for your attention!
Charlie Brandt
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
charles.brandt@pnl.gov
360.681.4594
I would like to acknowledge generous support by the US Department of
Energy’s Wind & Water Power Program Office
Slide
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