Three Polls

Three Polls
Abstract The objective of this report was to analyse three polls each from different sources, to
identify whether they were biased and unfair or unbiased and fair or perhaps a concoction of the two
and if the location of the sources affected the reliability and accuracy of the poll. This was done by
depicting it into a table with strengths and weaknesses of each of the three polls adjacent to each
other. The findings showed all three of the polls were with biased and unfair or unbiased and fair,
none of them were a mixture of the two. The sources of the polls did not influence the reliability and
accuracy of the poll, rather it contradicted it. All the sources were reliable however the polls had
some bias involved with either the wording or ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
This may be possibly influenced by the sources. Introduction The aim of the report is to investigate
whether the polls analysed in the report are fair and unbiased or unfair and biased or a concoction of
both. Before any judgements are declared, the definition of what makes a fair and unbiased poll
must be outlined. A poll is where people are asked to give their opinions on a subjective or objective
matter. A poll diverges into nine types; benchmark polls, tracking polls, bushfire polls, entrance
polls, exit polls, deliberative opinion polls, opinion polls, push polls and straw polls. A benchmark
poll is generally a short and simple survey of respondent's opinion designated to help political
candidates craft their campaigns. Tracking polls are repeated over several consecutive days to create
a picture of where opinion is moving over time, to enable a rough report of the campaigns. The
bushfire polls are polls taken during the period between the benchmark and tracking polls. The
number of brushfire polls taken by a campaign is determined by how competitive the race is and
how much money the campaign has to spend. These polls usually focus on likely voters and the
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The Gallup Poll
The Gallup Poll
When Gallup conducts a national opinion poll, the starting place is where all or most Americans are
equally likely to be found. That place is in their home, which is the starting place for nearly all
national polling. The actual target audiences, referred to as "national adults", are aged 18 and over,
living in telephone households within the United States. What I don 't understand is that Gallup
excludes college students living on campus, armed forces living on military bases, prisoners,
hospitalized people, and anyone else who is living institutionalized. I think these exclusions are
unfair. The article explains that the reasoning for not including the people who live in the places
mentioned above is because of ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Another thing I found interesting in this article is that Gallup as well as other major organizations
use sample sizes of 1,000–1,500 because these sample sizes are enough to give a good balance of
accuracy opposed to much larger samples which would be very expensive. I hadn 't considered
expense when it comes to collecting a sample but apparently it can be very costly. For instance, if a
sample size of 4,000 were selected each time there was a poll, the increase in accuracy would be
very small, and would not justify the increase in cost. Now, I believe this to be true because I do
think that the people behind things like the Gallop Poll are very smart statisticians and would not lie
when it comes to what effects the sample size has on the accuracy of results. It makes absolute sense
to me that specific ways of measuring the accuracy of samples have been done for many years and
the processes and results have been analyzed thoroughly with each design.
The poll of such a small number of people do not invalidate the results since for instance, as stated
in the article, if the sample size was raised to 2,000 instead of 1,000, for a Gallup Poll there would
be a gain of only 1% in terms of accuracy, and a 100% increase in terms of cost. I can understand
that looking at results with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points is reasonable
compared to spending a lot more money and only change the margin of error by

The Gamble, John Sides And Lynn Vavreck
Political campaigning is now the full–fledged live version of chess, with pawns, queens and kings,
but is all this parading and strategizing actually important? What is even the purpose behind political
campaigns; is it to inform the public about a candidate or through clever means to win an election at
all costs? The truth of the matter is that campaigns do actually serve an important purpose in the
political world of America. Its purpose is to help inform voters about candidates and to improve the
number of voters at the polling place. In order for these goals to be achieved there needs to be a
clear platform upon which the campaign is built. In the book The Gamble, John Sides and Lynn
Vavreck write that a successful campaign takes advantage of the fundamentals, "national conditions
that set the stage for the campaign," (2). These fundamentals are conditions that the candidate has no
control over, like the economy, their opponent, obstacles or opportunities, and how the candidate
reacts to them affect their ability to be elected (Sides and Vavreck 2). It is upon these fundamentals
that a campaign is built. They inform political stances and future decisions of the campaign, which
makes them an important foundation. Though these fundamentals are key to the survival of a
campaign, equally if not more so, as Professor David Parker has stated, unless the candidate has
name recognition the campaign is a lost cause (Parker, 2016). A successful candidate that isn't
already

Essay On Voting Rights
Without a doubt voting rights have grown since their first implications in the beginning of this
democracy. In the beginning the only person who were able to vote and be part of the government
were white protestant male. However, that would of course change after the Voting Rights Act that
was signed into order by President Lyndon Johnson that would remove discriminating factors used
on African Americans due to the fact that it was unconstitutional under the firth–teen amendment.
Some of the discriminating factors that were used were laws passed on by the jim crow laws that
included literacy test, or trick questions that had to be answered as well as poll taxes all which kept
the lower class and minorities from having a vote in what they believe in. However, minorities were
not the only ones left outside of the voting precincts women would also not have the right to vote
until the women's suffrage movement that would lead into the 19 Amendment which gave
everybody a right to vote regardless of gender. Although, this was a merely 90 years ago in the
1920's which is a considerable small amount of time considering our form of government isn't that
old. Even with all these ratifications of forming new laws to make everything equal regardless of
race and gender there are still a problem with voting in today's age although the problems rely more
on the technology being used, the access into the polls, as well as a variety of choice in nominees
There has been various problems with

The Pros And Cons Of Voter Voting
Many teens may argue that they should have a say and opinion in elections, but others believe they
are too young and don't know a thing about politics.The usual voting age is 18 years old, which is
still counts as a teenager but by that age, it is considered to be legal. They are more mature and have
a little more knowledge about what is happening around the world. In the article, "Takoma Park 16–
year–old savors his history making moment at the polls" written by Annys Shin states that the 26th
Amendment has granted 18 year olds the opportunity to vote around the mid 1900's. Although the
government has concerns on the percentage of people who vote, having younger applicants vote,
will not make much of a difference because they are not well informed yet about the rules and how
the government works.
The total amount percentage of the voting rate has been decreasing every year, simply because
citizens who are eligible to vote do not have enough time on their hands to vote. "During the last
municipal elections in 2011, a meager 19 percent of eligible voters showed up at the polls,"
according to Jessie Carpenter (Shin). Teens believe that if they are allowed to cast a vote, it will
make a major difference in elections and have a much better impact. Voter apathy has been a
worldwide problem with citizens because many do not vote due to the fact that they have a job and
are not allowed to leave because they really need that money or because they must attend school.
One of the

Dumbledore Propaganda Essay
Dumbledore is currently three percentage points behind in the polls. Therefore, a plan to gain him
more support has been devised to propel him to the lead. Dumbledore is a gentle, unique, and
brilliant man, an innovative thinker who freely voices his opinion, and a great leader. He is the
headmaster of Hogwarts School of Witchcraft and Wizardry, founder and leader of the Order of the
Phoenix, a Grand Sorcerer decorated with the Order of Merlin, First Class; also Supreme Mugwump
of the International Confederation of Wizards and Chief Warlock of the Wizengamot. Thus, it is
anticipated that the propaganda techniques listed below will emphasize these traits to promote
Dumbledore, and have a positive and significant impact on his poll results. Through stacking the
deck, appeal to emotions, and red herring, Dumbledore will take the lead in future polls. The first
and most important propaganda technique ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
There are $300,000 to spend on appeal to emotions. Appeal to emotions will be used in all kinds of
campaign ads (ads in the internet, television, radio, etc.) to emphasize that Dumbledore is a wise,
kind, loving, and forgiving man. Once again, appeal to emotions must be used in appropriate
amounts just like stacking the deck so that Dumbledore does not seem like an affectatious person.
For example, showing the audience that Dumbledore can change the country can give voters hope
and possibly persuade them to vote for Dumbledore. Dumbledore is a marvelous person who is wise
and kind. Ergo there will be many places where appeal to emotions can be used. Consequently,
voters will for sure be touched and trust Dumbledore in leading their country. Accordingly,
Dumbledore will acquire more votes if appeal to emotions was used in his campaign ads. In brief,
appeal to emotions can increase votes for Dumbledore by putting emphasis on his positive traits and
showing that he can change this

Ict Failures in Gotv for Us Presedential Elections
Interim Report ICT use in Getting out the Vote in recent US Presidential Elections: A Tale of Two
Solutions. Xxxxxxxxxxxxx (for module ISM106) December 13, 2012
Contents.
1.0 Background and Objectives........................................................3
2.0 Literature Search and Methodology.............................................4
3.0 GOTV – The Problem Domain....................................................5
4.0 Timetable..............................................................................7
5.0 References.............................................................................8
"Good judgment comes from experience, but a lot of that comes from bad judgment". Will Rogers,
American Humorist (1879–1935).
1.0 Background and Objectives.
Getting out the vote (GOTV) is a very important activity in an election campaign. Within a typical
polling precinct, campaign ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Technophilia
More or better technology prevents or fixes problems. Idolisation
ICT is idolised and seen as leading to great benefits.
Lomanism
Feigned or genuine belief of IT suppliers in the excellence of their products.
Managerial Faddism
New management or structures bring benefits and prevent/fix problems.
Originally conceived for failed projects in the public sector, both these models will be tested for
their relevance outside that arena.
3.0 GOTV – The problem domain.
Using the diagram below, the GOTV operations at a typical precinct can be explained.
The activities highlighted in red are those that were targeted by the Obama 2008 and the Romney
2012 campaigns for ICT solutions. Summaries of both these efforts are presented below.

3.1 Obama's 2008 Project Houdini.
In 2008, the Obama campaign unveiled a revolutionary new program called Houdini that would
magically make the names of those who had already voted disappear from the GOTV lists. The
program – which was only reserved for precincts that the Obama campaign deemed most crucial –
was surprisingly low–tech [3]. There would be a poll watcher and poll reporter assigned to each
targeted precinct. The poll

Government Polls
National polls are an important tool used by political parties and news outlets to gauge how the
public feels about current issues or political candidates. Only one month into his presidency,
President Donald Trump is facing a lot of heat from the public, and that is very evident in the polls.
Polls can be used for both good and evil. Some are used to promote agendas or favor towards certain
politicians or policy, while others can be used to simply see where the public stands on current
issues.
Currently, according to Gallup, polls are showing that President Donald Trump's first month
approval ratings are below average first month ratings by 21 points (Gallup). While the average
approval number by the end of February is 61%, Trump's numbers are at 40%. The last time
approval ratings were this low within a president's first month was in 1993, when Bill Clinton
stepped into office. There are many reasons for our president's low numbers, ranging ... Show more
content on Helpwriting.net ...
One thing that I found odd while researching for this paper is the variety of poll results across a
small selection of sources. For instance, CNN posted a poll update in late January, stating that our
President's job approval ratings were at an all–time low at 36%. Underneath the large heading and
introductory statement, they mentioned that the information was gathered by one national poll that
was provided by one university. Should the findings of one poll, given by one university, be
published as if they represent all of the American population's views? Personally, I do not feel the
need to pay attention to polls when it comes to national politics. I am generally distrusting of the
agendas that many news outlets support when it comes to national polls, even though I still believe
that polls aren't entirely unnecessary. I fully support the idea of giving the public a way to compare
views and express personal

Final Paper Assignment : Presidential Election
Final Paper Assignment Option #1 The 2016 election was one that certainly deviated from what
most people think of when they think of a "typical" election. This election was a deeply partisan
election that became more about disliking the other candidate than voting on issues or for a specific
candidate. The 2016 Presidential Election surprised many experts, according to most polls and
experts this election was supposed to be a landslide victory for Hillary Clinton, but due to the
Democratic Party being out of touch with the working–class and Midwest voters Donald Trump was
able to upset Hillary Clinton to win the election. This election was very much a partisan election, in
an exit poll conducted by the New York Times it shows that 90% of Republicans voted for Donald
Trump while 89% of Democrats voted for Hillary Clinton. In the same poll it also showed that while
those who voted for Hillary Clinton much more strongly favored their candidate than those who
voted for Donald Trump, at the same time, those who disliked the other candidate more strongly,
voted for Donald Trump (Huang et al.). This shows that many people voted for Trump not because
they liked him but because they disliked him less than they disliked Clinton. If more people who
voted for Donald Trump did so because they disliked Hillary Clinton than those who voted for
Hillary Clinton because they disliked Donald Trump it means that Trump was seen as more of a
lesser of two evils by many who voted for him. This

Should Teens Be Allowed To Vote
Should teens be allowed to vote ? There are different responses to this. The article "Takoma Park
16–year–old savors his history making moment at the polls" by Annys Shin published on Nov. 3,
2013 shows different sides about teens being allowed to vote. The article indicates that some
individuals believe that teens should be allowed to vote while other don't believe that they should.
After reading the article and seeing the pros and cons of students voting one can infer that it won't
be a good idea for students to vote. Many people agree that teen should be allowed to vote, but why.
Teens are still young kids who still are not matured enough to help shape the world. They are not at
the age to vote. Being able to vote for them will seem like a joke. They won't take it seriously. If
teens are allowed to vote many won't even take time and think about what is the best decision for
them. Think about it this way as a teen when a teacher would tell you to make up your mind if you
wanna see the movie the Lion King or Home Alone. A teen will talk it out with their friends and
their vote will be influenced by others. They will raise their hand to the one the friend chooses. Well
same as voting their vote won't really be accurate of what they think. They won't know who to vote
for and will just vote on what a friend is voting for. Teens are still too young to vote.
Teens are not matured enough. Yes there are student who at the age of 16 and 17 are like adults, but
in reality

Marist Poll
Poll's Main Conclusions The Marist Poll found that a majority of respondents, 52%, believe
President Trump's response to the Charlottesville attacks has not been strong enough, with 27%
disagreeing. A notable 21% are not sure. Unsurprisingly, there is a partisan split in attitudes. Marist
found that 79% of Democrats and 52% of Independents agree that Trump's response was not strong
enough. Whereas 59% of Republicans believe his response was strong enough. A majority of
Democrats (73%) and Independents (47%) believe race relations have gotten worse within the past
year. Only 32% of Republicans believe race relations have gotten worse in the past year. In terms of
removing confederate statues, 2/3 of Latinx and whites said the statues ... Show more content on
Helpwriting.net ...
Firstly, in its most basic element, this survey brought key issues to the attention of the mass public
and political elites. Secondly, surveys carry the ability to create political change. Days after public
opinion showed meager approval of President Trump's initial response to the Charlottesville attacks,
Trump condemned neo–Nazis and white supremacists in a statement (Manchester 2017). For the
premises given above, I find this Marist Poll survey to be meaningful. The Charlottesville attacks
will remain historically important. Polling Entity Assessment Overall, The Marist Poll, has a
respectable reputation. It was founded in 1978, and is considered the "first college based research
center to include undergraduates in conducting survey research" (Marist 2017). Accordingly, Marist
College places a strong emphasis on academic led–research. Several news networks such as CNN,
FOX, and NBC have cited The Marist Poll in their articles. Additionally, FiveThirtyEight has given
Marist College polling an "A" grade for its accuracy (Nate Silver 538). Marist does not have a
history of partisan or ideological bias. However, as with any polling entity, their results should be
analyzed assiduously. Methodology of the Poll a. The sample size of this poll is 1,125 adults and
was limited to those that reside in the United States. The margin of error is +/– 2.9 percentage
points. Most political science research embraces the 95% level of confidence (Damore

Voting In Voting
Being able to vote is a privilege that has been granted to us at the age of 18 for over 40 years now.
Although 18 year olds and above are granted the opportunity to vote in something that can make a
difference in politics not everyone takes the time to participate in voting. Most of the voting has
been done by older people because they have had more experience and interest in politics. With that
being said I think the more realistic decision to make is keeping 16 and 17– years olds from voting
until they reach the age of 18. On November 13, 2017, Annys Shin published an article called
Takoma Park 16–year–old savors his history making moment at the polls. In that article Shin
explains that in the Montgomery County has been one of the first communities to allow 16 and 17–
years olds to vote. The student that have been elected to vote felt important and special for being
able to have a say in votes at such a young age. For those who weren't chosen might of not had a
problem with it simply because they weren't interested. Even when they teen reach the age of 18 the
first thing they think about is not running up to a poll and vote, they have money other ideas then
waiting so long to go to the polls and voting at the first opportunity that they get. We cannot be more
excited to have the 16–17 year olds vote then they are themselves. If they are not eager to vote at
16–17 then why even have the idea to push them to be hungry to vote and be involved in politics.
The teens that

Presidential Election Of The United States
After almost two years on the campaign trail, the United States of America has finally elected its
new president, Donald Trump. No that is not a typo, this is real life. It was a hard fought battle
between Hillary Clinton and the Donald which ultimately lead to one of the most shocking upsets in
recent American politics. Being that the odds were heavily stacked against Trump as poll after poll
predicted Clinton be the victor, it was to the astonishment of many that he reigned victorious during
this 2016 presidential election cycle. Be it the will of the country (or in this case electoral college )
this poisonous cheeto will now be the 45th president of the United States. So how did this happen,
what was it about Trump that pushed voter behavior in his favor in many key battleground states?
Trumps victory lies in the hands of the silent majority who at this point were dying for change and
saw it within the republican nominee. The biggest contributing factor to Trump's win on November
8 was retrospective voting which a lot of voters clearly engaged in this election cycle. When making
the decision of who to vote for during an election, voters often tend to start looking within at their
own situation before throwing their support at a candidate. Questioning whether ones is better off
now than they were before the previous election is known as retrospective voting. This concept is
the idea that voters take into consideration factors such as the performance a political party ,

Abstract . The Past Year Election Was One Of The Most...
Abstract The past year election was one of the most controversial elections I have seen. Even the
polls got the winner wrong. Since I have been in this country I have never seen a poll prediction that
has been so far off even the day of the election. In the next couple of pages an attempt to explain
what went so wrong with the polls. From the new era of cellphones, to hidden voters who lied to the
pollsters. To them not counting uneducated voters because they are less likely to vote. Three lessons
that we learned this past election and one of the most important to me is to remember that predicting
the future is very hard. That no one can have 100% prediction.
What went wrong in 2016?
As the night of November 8th, 2016 ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Pollsters underestimated the amount of Trump hidden votes. The number of people who were
undecided at the time of election day and then decided to vote for Trump. Some of them were not
even aware of their preference until election day.
Cell phones
Prior to cell phones, technology was less advanced meaning people still owned landlines. Landlines
were more accessible; pollsters just had to go to a phone book look at the number and call. They
also set a specific demographic on what county or region would vote for who. Allowing them to also
have a more accurate and random sample pulling. However, when cell phones came into play, they
do not allow to have much of an accurate or random pulling anymore. One of the problems with cell
phones is region. People move homes, with cell phones they can keep their number even if they
move from one state to another. Giving the pollsters wrong data on region or county. Let's say
someone from Miami moves to Frt. Lauderdale, they can keep their area code number, making it
bias for the pollsters.
Another issue with cell phones is that many of us like to keep our information private. Unlike
landlines, there is no phonebook to get the numbers from. Per Vann R. Newkirk II other online
surveys and methods have been tried in order

Essay On Voter ID Laws
Texas' Voter ID Laws Voter ID laws are the laws set into place that require a person to show some
form of identification to vote, most of which require PHOTO ID. Senate Bill 14, which requires
proof of Identification; providing criminal penalties and Senate Bill 5, which requires a voter to
present proof of ID; providing a criminal penalty and increasing a criminal penalty are the two bills
being questioned at the time. Senate bill 5 was the revised version of SB 14, which was put into
place so that voters with no photo ID could sign a declaration and still cast their vote. SB 5 was
thrown out with Attorney General Paxton saying "our argument is simple that this is a legitimate act
of legislature. This is not discriminatory." In 2011 the ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
The law that says the types of photo ID election officials can/cannot accept at polls goes against the
Voting Rights Act. More than 600,000 Texans lack the form(s) of photo ID that are required through
SB 14. However, these citizens are able to obtain "election ID certificates" for free, but only if they
can produce a copy of their birth certificate. Some opponents of Texas law say that there is nothing
in SB 14 that is discriminatory, but the judges of the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals still chose to reject
it. Both bills were motivated by racism; neither was necessary to preserve voter integrity. Shelby
County v. Holder is relevant to SB 14 in that it weakened federal over state and county elections.
Congress' method for determining which jurisdictions are subjected to preclearance, was struck
down by the supreme court in this decision. The federal district court denied preclearance of SB 14.
"Texas is not permitted to implement the photo ID law," says Andrade from Texas Secretary of
State. This started the suppression of minority voting rights, however a federal court is able to make
a state submit its voting laws to the District of Judges for approval for up to 10 years if the state was
intentionally engaging in race–based voter suppression. If Texas is put under preclearance, the state
will have to prove/show the federal government that its election laws are not discriminatory against
minorities for the next 10 years.
The state voter ID laws are considered to be one

The Voting Age Should Be Legal
Twenty–one year olds are mature enough to make important decisions such as voting. Most
countries around the world have established a voting age. Voting is a topic of heated debate in the
United States due to difference of opinions between the democrat and republican parties. In the
United States the voting age has been reduced from twenty–one years old to eighteen years old.
Even though the voting age was reduced, some people have been lobbying in order to reduce the
voting age to sixteen. Reducing the legal age for voting is a bad idea, because the younger
generation lacks the capability of having an informed decision for voting. Although some people
believed that the legal voting age should be lower than eighteen, on the other hand others believe it
should be returned to twenty–one. The legal voting age should be returned to twenty–one because
the majority of people over twenty–one are more educated about politics than an eighteen year old.
People who are over twenty–one are not easily influenced by people's opinions and are more
capable of evaluating future outcomes.
The legal voting age should be returned to twenty–one, because people over twenty–one are more
educated about politics. People under the age of twenty–one tend to focus more on social media and
school. However, most people under the age of twenty–one do not understand how much politics
and government affects their life. If you go to any college campus and talk with eighteen–year–old
student, you may find out

Exploring Options For Moving The Peace Process
Allow us to add our congratulations to all those from around the world who admire your work on
the peace process and celebrate your selection as this year's Nobel peace laureate. It is richly
deserved, and we admire your strong gesture of donating the award proceeds.
We know, however, that you and Colombia's leadership are grappling with the surprising and bitterly
disappointing results of the 2 October plebiscite. As you explore options for moving the peace
process forward, it is an important moment to take stock of what happened in that election, assess
why Colombians voted the way they did (or did not vote at all), learn how to show voters you heard
them, and develop strategies that could help you build necessary public support for whatever revised
agreement may emerge.
We appreciate the opportunity to submit a proposal to conduct research and analysis that can help
you sort through the difficult challenges that lie ahead. We have worked with other transformational
leaders – like Nelson Mandela, Bill Clinton, and Ehud Barak – and we know that one way bold
leaders rise to tough challenges is by gaining a deep grasp of their public's mood. We can help you
obtain the insights you need now.
Our work would provide you with a clear sense of what happened on and before 2 October, with a
projective analysis of your current options for changing voters' views. The research plan we lay out
below would address the following questions and challenges:
What were the key drivers of

An Additional Area Of Contention Within The Literature
An additional area of contention within the literature regards the effects of polling on voters. The
majority of scholars support the idea that polling publication does indeed have an effect on voters.
On the lower end of the influence scale, scholars such as Cutler et al. (2012:282) conclude that poll
reporting is potentially an autonomous influence on the behaviour of voters as they reason their way
to electoral decisions. However, their study does not delve too heavily into the actual empirical
influence of poll reporting's effects, but rather alludes to its potential effects. More comprehensive
studies of the 1988 election in Canada found that polling had a much larger effect on voting
behaviour (Blais, Gidengil and Nivette 2006:272). ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Similarly, during times of negative news for a party, undeclared voters would, in turn, state that they
were less likely to vote for said party (ibid). However, this study concluded by finding that when it
came down to election day, there was no clear evidence that these reported voting intentions, as a
result of polling publication or news stories, influenced undecided voters when they reached the
voting booth, as the influence was not found to be statistically significant (ibid:39–40).
Normative Assessments: Effects of Polling Publication on Democracy? Most of the literature
discussed in the above chapters has been fairly empirical in its findings. However, some of the
current literature discussing the nature of polling publication and its influence on voters have also
brought normative claims to their studies. These normative claims operate under the assumption that
polling publication is indeed influencing voter decisions, and subsequently ask: what do the effects
of voter influence from polling publication mean for Canadian democracy? In response to this
question, two sides have emerged in the debate; a majority of scholars who believe polling
publication is negatively affecting democracy, and a small minority who believe polling publication
is benefiting democracy. Those who believe polling publication is negatively affecting Canadian
democracy argue two claims. Firstly, due to the influence polling publications have on

Analyzing The Exit Poll Works : Conducting National Exit...
1.1 HOW EXIT POLL WORKS: Conducting national exit polls is an enormous undertaking,
requiring as long as two years to implement. The goal of the process is to collect information on a
subset of voters that can be projected to the entire active electorate with a high degree of confidence.
Numerous obstacles, though, stand in the way, threatening to undermine the effort and bias the
results. Exit polls, like most surveys, unfold in four distinct but often overlapping stages / Research–
ers usually begin by developing procedures for drawing a probabilistic sample of voters whose
responses can be inferred to the active electorate with a high degree of confidence. They develop a
questionnaire, capable of both describing the types of voters participating in an election as well as
offering insights into the reasoning behind their choices. Interviewers are trained and eventually
employed to disseminate the questionnaires to and collect them from sampled voters on Election
Day. The process concludes with the integration of voters' responses into a data set for analysis. The
specific procedures used for each stage vary by polling organization; therefore, I focus my
discussion on those procedures developed by Warren Mitofsky, Murray Edelman, and their
col¬leagues at CBS and used by the polling units employed by the network consortium to conduct
the national exit polls. 1.2 THE STAGES OF EXIT POLLING PROCESS: 1) Sampling The first
stage of the exit polling process is selecting a

Public Opinion Polls Have Both Flaws And Encouraging Data
Before I go into answering the questions directly, it should be understood that public opinion polls
have both flaws and encouraging data. Pubic opinion polls if done appropriately will give the
general feel of how the population is feeling towards an issue. It all depends on whether the
sampling is comparative to the population, for example if you have a population of One–Hundred
Thousand and you only sample one hundred, the results will not be as accurate if the sampling size
was bigger. Also, the person conducting the interviews of these opinion polls must not be biased to
one side or the other. They must remain centered on the subject and not influence the answers that
are given. Asking specific questions about real issues can result is promising polling data. Opinion
polls should be used to collect data, and must also be used in a way that reflects accurate data. By
not having accurate data that can lead to bad decision making or lead to mistrust among the
community and the police departments. One of the biggest missuses of opinion polls was in the
presidential election in the 1948 were the Chicago Daily Tribune printed election results on bad
opinion polling and looked foolish for doing so. So these polls should be used with caution and
constructed in a way that does not allow for misrepresentation of the publics true views as it has in
the past. Well one of the first things I would tell the director before looking at the poll would be to
not base any decisions

Public Opinion Poll
Public Opinion Poll In A Glimpse
Gallup Poll is an organization that conducts public opinion polling in a regular basis throughout one
hundred and forty countries around the world. It has a reputation of being the most trustworthy and
accurate in depicting the public opinions on various kinds of issues. It is also best known for the
accuracy in predicting the United States presidential elections results.
In conducting a public opinion poll, the first and foremost important concept is the basic principle of
probability sampling, or at least that is what Gallup values as an important foundation. The
probability sampling itself holds the definition as "a sampling technique wherein the samples are
gathered in a process that gives all ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
The purpose of this technique is to compare the impact of different wordings and sometimes to
report the results of both wordings. All in all, it allows people to have greater understanding of the
impact of nuances in ways of addressing key issues (Newton 1–3).
After getting deeper understanding on how public opinion polls work, let us take an example of a
recent poll from gallup.com with the title of "U.S. Perceptions of Job Market Remain Weak but
Improved". From the perspective of how the poll conducted and the method used, this poll is based
on telephone interviews conducted in a time frame of June 7 to June 10, 2012 with a random sample
of 1,004 adults, aged 18 and older, in United States. It is also specified that the results are based on
the total sample of national adults, with ninety five percent confidence that the maximum margin of
sampling error is approximately four percentage points. The sample is randomly selected by
considering the gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, and
phone status. The phone numbers are of course chosen by random while putting the demographic
characteristics into consideration. This confirms the principle of probability sampling where every
individual is guaranteed to have an equal opportunity of being selected by using the randomization
technique. The random sample is also obtained through the process of identifying the target
population through a set of characteristics

Gallup Poll Is A Sampling Of Public Opinion On The United...
A Gallup Poll is defined by Merriam–Webster Dictionary as "a sampling of public opinion on a
particular issue or of the degree of information among the public about a particular thing or of
opinion or information in a particular group taken by questioning a representative cross section."
(Merriam–Webster, n.d). The Gallup Company was developed in 1935 to gauge public opinion on
relevant topics in the United States and world–wide using surveys and statistical data. Using survey
questions to obtain data Gallup develops statistics on opinions regarding the economy, politics,
social and other issues. The Gallup World Poll "...provides these insights by continually measuring
key indicators such as Leadership, Law and Order, Food/Shelter, Work, Economics, Health,
Wellbeing, Migration, Environment, Education, Entrepreneurship, and Engaged Citizens and
demonstrating their correlations with world development indicators such as GDP and Brain Gain."
(Gallup, n.d). The article and survey selected for this evaluation is part of the Gallup Poll Social
Series, "Americans Plan on Spending a Lot More This Christmas" by Linda Saad can be found at:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/186620/americans–plan–spending–lot–christmas.aspx. The article and
contained statistics show that American's have intentions of spending quite a bit more on Christmas
than they did at this point last year. On average an intended increase of one–hundred and ten
additional dollars over last years $720. By evaluating the

Poll Tax In Henry Thoreau's Resistance To Civil Government
Poll Tax
Poll tax, meaning a fee that has to be paid to satisfy taxpayer requirements in voting laws, and that
the only people who demonstrate financial tie to community were permitted for this kind of voting,
was the reason Henry Thoreau was arrested and sent to jail for the night. While in jail, he realized
that what had just happened to him was not right and needed to do something about it. The next day
a friend of his which happened to be his aunt paid his texas meaning he was free to go. Believe it or
not, Thoreau refused to be let out and wanted justice for what was illegally happening. Which is
why he wrote "Resistance to Civil Government" so everyone would read and know what was
actually going on. I believe that he presents an effective argument and fights for what he knows is
right, which involved poll tax, civil disobedience, and unjust laws.
One of Thoreau's strong argument points had to do with the whole situation of the poll tax. He didn't
see the need in people paying tax for something that they don't agree on nor want. He stopped
paying poll tax about six years ago because he believed that it supported the Mexican–American
war and the expansion of slavery into the Southwest which he did not agree on. The next couple of
days he was out running errands and got arrested for that reason. Sam Staples, which was the cop
who arrested Thoreau, failed to take action against him for several years up until that day. In my
opinion I feel like if Staples didn't

Poll Bias
a sampling or collection of opinions on a subject, taken from either a selected or a random group of
persons, as for the purpose of analysis. Polls are very useful in giving information to the general
public, or larger groups and associations that make the poll. Polls also raise awareness about the
topic, and or to give the public knowledge about the certain topic or question the poll is asking.
Sometimes or at the present time, most of the times polls are twisted and manipulated to have
opinions from only certain people who agree with the poll . This report will break down and will
show in depth all positive and negative aspects of polls.
What makes a poll bias? polls can be easily altered to a one sided point of understanding or opinion
from ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
An example of stereotyping : samplers generating a poll "should all aboriginals have the right to
own all there land for free" but only giving the poll to aboriginals to get what the samples want , a
biased answer and not letting other races answer ( European back ground)
An example of cosmetic bias : people saying that they researched all possible outcomes of the
situations , but in reality just saying that so that they can get the answer they want , and to persuade
people into believing the poll
An example of Imbalance/Selectivity Bias: Practically the same as stereotyping – getting only
opinions of a certain group or sex ; " Which is the better sex male or female" but only asking that to
females
An example of Invisibility Bias: that the aboriginal or indigenious groups are to of less value to our
society than everyone else
An example of Unreality Bias – Saying that Australia caused world war 1 – providing fake research
to create an un realistic portrayal of the

Persuasive Essay On Lowering The Voting Age
Did you know over 54% of Americans voted yes to voting ages being changed down to 13? Would
you be able to fathom walking into your local voting station, and seeing a mother signing her son
into the polls for him to be able to vote. What would you think? I know what I would think, why is
this borderline premature child voting? who let this child vote? Like come on this kid doesn't even
know who the candidates are? Do you think the voting age should be lowered? In this argumentative
paper I will give you facts from both the opposition and my side of things, and YOU the reader, can
make your decision at the end of this essay. The voting age should not be lowered to 13 because
voting stations would have definite overcrowding, parents would factor in as ... Show more content
on Helpwriting.net ...
That 54% also says that stripping the teenagers of their political capabilities is "inhumane" almost,
they believe at that age the kids are as capable as any adult out there. They believe that the young
teenagers should have a say in what goes on around them and since they are apart of the community,
they should be allowed to vote. In my opinion, children that age cannot even handle the simple day
to day responsibilities they are given to them by school and their parents, so in my mind i am
thinking, what should make them able to vote? I recall that when I was thirteen, all I was worried
about was

Opinion Poll Essay
Another factor to note is the influence of opinion polls. Parties that gain popular support during
campaigns may have benefited from "the bandwagon effect", (Kay, 1997). Some undecided voters
may look at opinion polls, and other polling data to decide where the political parties stand relative
to each other. The various opinion polls conducted seem to indicate that Alberta was to be an NDP
province as the campaign neared its later stages. There were several pre–election polls conducted in
the province that showed the roughly even amount of support between all three parties. However,
the Progressive Conservative's did hold an early lead at the start of the campaign, leading some to
believe that they would be re–elected. As the campaign ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
In addition, Jim Prentice unsuccessfully attempted to convince the Albertans on the importance of
such economic blueprint. The early election call made it possible for the NDP to take an advantage
of an unpopular budget.
By calling an early election, Jim Prentice was trying to take advantage of the political environment.
The PC government were facing a declining approval rate and Jim Prentice had hoped that an early
election would provide his government with a new mandate and more years in power. Yet, voters
were tired of the PC's budget deficits and lack of vision, and scandals, which provided the NDP the
opportunity to offer voters an alternative solution, (Leeson, 2015). These events made the NDP's
appear even more attractive to voters as a new approach to governing.
Leadership
The image of Jim Prentice has been mentioned on most occasions as a reason why Albertans
withdrew their support from the long–governing PCs. The then government led by Mr. Prentice had
received poor reputation and this led to the defeat of his government. Jim Prentice was seen as an
elite that was out of touch with the common, everyday Albertan, (Sayers and Stewart, 2016). As a
result of this, many voters defected from the PC party and supported other options instead. This was
an adequate indication that the party was losing its popularity while NDP was gaining. Also, the
New Democratic Party accused the incumbent government of Jim Prentice of poor fiscal policy due
to his

Defining Exit Polls And Opinion Polls
Defining Exit polls and Opinion Polls: Exit poll: A poll taken of a sample of voters as they leave a
polling place, used especially to predict the outcome of an election or determine the opinions and
characteristics of the candidates supporters . How Exit poll works: Conducting national exit polls is
an enormous undertaking, requiring as long as two years to implement. The goal of the process is to
collect information on a subset of voters that can be projected to the entire active electorate with a
high degree of confidence. Numerous obstacles, though, stand in the way, threatening to undermine
the effort and bias the results. Exit polls, like most surveys, unfold in four distinct but often
overlapping stages / Research–ers usually begin by developing procedures for drawing a
probabilistic sample of voters whose responses can be inferred to the active electorate with a high
degree of confidence. They develop a questionnaire, capable of both describing the types of voters
participating in an election as well as offering insights into the reasoning behind their choices.
Interviewers are trained and eventually employed to disseminate the questionnaires to and collect
them from sampled voters on Election Day. The process concludes with the integration of voters'
responses into a data set for analysis. The specific procedures used for each stage vary by polling
organization; therefore, I focus my discussion on those procedures developed by Warren Mitofsky,
Murray Edelman,

The reasons why American people do not vote Essay
The reasons why many Americans do not vote
America is a free country, and voting is an important part of that freedom. Unlike other countries
where dictators and monarchs make decisions on behalf of the people, Americans get the right to
decide who runs the country and what laws should govern citizens. But even though voting is an
important privilege, most Americans simply don't vote, and some of their reasons may surprise you.
Here are seven common reasons most Americans don't vote.
1. They think their vote won't count
Many Americans don't vote because they think their vote doesn't count. This is a common excuse
that's rooted in the belief that the Electoral College chooses the President, not the voters. In reality,
the popular vote in ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
If you don't voice your opinion by voting, you shouldn't have the right to voice your complaints
when things don't go the way you want them to.
5. Lines are too long
Voting lines can sometimes be long, and for busy people waiting in line is a horrible waste of time
and energy. But in reality, voting lines are seldom long, even for high–profile presidential races.
With the advent of new technology, voting is becoming easier and more efficient than ever before,
and this allows voters to get in and out without having to wait in long lines. This excuse is becoming
less and less relevant as time goes on.
6. Don't like the candidates
Politicians are sometimes easy to dislike. Their flaws are often aired publicly for the entire world to
see, and many people generally distrust politicians based on this information. But even if you don't
particularly like any of the candidates, do you really know them? And should it matter whether you
like them or not? Perhaps a politician's stance on issues important to you is more important than
whether or not they are likeable. Even if it's choosing the lesser of two or more evils in your eyes,
voting is still an important way for you to voice your opinion about the subjects you care about
most.
5. Can't get to the polls
Getting to polling locations can be a hassle, especially for the disabled, the sick, and people without
transportation. In addition, voting becomes even more difficult for

Those With Disability Essay
Several years after Congress took steps to guarantee equal access for the disabled at the voting polls,
studies showed that in the United States "during the 2012 election cycle, 1 in 5 voters with
disabilities said they were kept from casting their ballot on their own and more than half said they
encountered hurdles" (Heasley). Disabilities can be defined as an impairment that may be physical,
cognitive, intellectual, mental, sensory, developmental, or a combination of impairments that causes
restrictions on an individual's ability to participate in society. With an ongoing problem in society as
great as this, many began to question how such an impactful issue can be resolved. How does one's
disability affect their political participation within society? How do one's disabilities even interfere
with their ability to cast their vote in elections? How can one take steps to further improve one's
political participation whether they have physical, mental, or psychosocial disabilities?
Currently, not much action has been taken to study or improve the conditions negatively imposed
upon those with disabilities. These critical issues will be examined in this study through the use of
peer–reviewed articles, books, and legislative regulation proving their true impact on their ability to
increase political participation for those with disabilities. This study will seek to investigate if and
why the lack of money is impacting access to special equipment which inhibits citizen's ability

Importance of Voting Essay
The Importance of Voting With the Long Lines, the stressful waiting, and the constant question of
asking yourself "why am I here?" on going in your head makes the waiting to vote the most exciting
thing ever. But wait aside of that, think for a second. This year there were people going to vote even
when hurricane sandy hit parts of their neighborhood, destroyed their houses or flooded several
ways for them to get to their voting station, but they still voted. They're is people who went to those
voting polls and spent long hours putting whatever situation they were in aside and went to vote.
They did so To fulfill their duty as a citizen, to make their voice heard and their vote count. This is
why I think whatever the case maybe ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
That is what is what's beautiful about this great nation, we have a chance to let our voice be heard
and to make a statement. Besides what do we gain by not voting? Nothing. Voting is like gamble
things don't always stay the same. According to "TheAtlantic.com" The number one reason to why
Americans don't vote it's because they're too busy or their work doesn't let them, according to
"UsGovInfo" the people who were too busy to vote agreed that voting is important. So what is
getting in the way in order for these people to go vote? Their Job schedule. Americans want to vote,
there just not given the chance to. This issue should be fixed, the people that want to vote and want
their opinion heard or to at least take part in something that will make a difference in their lives
should be given the chance to, every job should let their workers have a special time for them to go
vote days before. No one that wants to vote should not do so. Every person with an occupation
should be given the chance to make a difference. The second reason to why people don't vote is
because they are disabled. I know that the least thing a disabled person wants to be is uncomfortable
to someone else, they want to feel as if they can go do things themselves without bothering anyone.
So even in the voting polls they have a special place for the disabled so people should just get out
there and vote! Maybe if you don't like

The Use of Polls to Analyze Public Opinion in Politics Essay
The Use of Polls to Analyze Public Opinion in Politics
Public opinion is defined in the text as "the distribution of the population's beliefs about politics and
policy issues" (Edwards, Wattenberg, and Lineberry 150). On paper, it sounds so simple; in reality it
is much more difficult to determine. The most common method for ascertaining and consolidating
public opinion has been through the widespread use of polls. Their popularity has steadily increased
over the years. One reason is that they provide an accurate, reliable representation of the opinions of
an entire population and supply decision–makers with valuable insight that may be used to
determine a future course of action. However, not all polls are created equal. Polls ... Show more
content on Helpwriting.net ...
Without a randomly selected sample, the results can only be applied to the specific persons
questioned (Blake 1). This is why results from polls that allow self–selection, such as those found on
the web, or in your mailbox, automatically demand a higher level of scrutiny and skepticism.
Wording and ordering of interview questions is another area that demands major attention. Words,
terms and phrases should be stated and ordered in such a way as to create as little room for bias as
possible, and should be presented, in full, with the polling results (Blake 2). Question wording has
been called the "biggest source of bias and error in data", and is therefore an aspect of polling that
will always leave room for criticism (Gallup 4). Occasional ill–wording of questions is tolerable, if
not unavoidable, as long as it is not obviously meant to tilt the results or prompt a certain response.
However, it is not unheard of nor is it uncommon for such polling practices to occur. Some attempts
to persuade are definitely more malicious in nature than others. This is the subject of the article
"When Push Comes to Poll", by Larry Sabato and Glenn Simpson. They outline several types of
sneaky polling practices. But, by far, Sabato and Simpson agree that "negative persuasive" polls are
the worst! These polls target a specific

Reliability And Accuracy Of Polls
This essay is looking in depth at the reliability and accuracy of polls in the media.
Polls in the media
Abstract
The aim of this analytical essay was to investigate the reliability and accuracy of polls in the media.
The report includes both the strengths and weakness of the three selected polls, two of which were
conducted over the internet and the remaining over the telephone. This investigation is aimed to
look in depth at the methods of survey and the variables within it that may or may not have
sufficiently controlled or not. After the research that had been done, it was evident that there were
many faults in the survey system.
Introduction
Polls are a casting of votes that are supplied to a targeted audience, these audiences range from 18 to
50 years although this can vary depending on the subject of the questionnaire. A poll is a specific
question supplied to the public in order to gain an average opinion on the matter. The participants
can then choose one of the multiple answers that are predefined. A survey is similar to a poll in some
ways such as the series of questions provided to civilians to answer, the only discrepancy between
the two is that there is a wider range of question types.
There many different types of polls such as a push poll, opinion poll, benchmark poll, brushfire poll
entrance polls and exit polls. A push is a seemingly unbiased survey that is conducted over the
telephone by supporters of a specific political candidate. They then try to

Fair Poll Analysis
All of these polls must be fair and unbiased in order to be an accurate and valid data. The definition
of fair poll is a question without any hint of personal opinions or judgements. A poll must also be
unbiased, meaning not supporting or opposing a particular person or thing in an unfair way, because
of personal opinions to influence your judgements. There are several different types of bias however
the main ones are; analytical bias, cognitive bias, confounding bias, consistency bias, experimenter
bias, omitted–variable bias, recency bias, reporting bias, selection bias and systematic bias. Firstly
analytical bias arises due to the way that the results are evaluated. Secondly cognitive bias is a
pattern of deviation in judgment, whereby inferences about ... Show more content on
Helpwriting.net ...
Confounding bias occurs when two factors are associated and the effect of one is confused with or
distorted by the effect of the other. Consistency bias refers to the relation of terms to one another; it
is the tendency to keep one response consistent with prior response. Next consistency bias is similar
to social desirability bias, except that the latter term refers to a tendency to answer a given item in a
social acceptable. Experimenter bias is when the measurements obtained in a study are influenced
by the experimenter's expectations regarding the outcome of the study. A researcher knows the
predicted outcome of a research study and is in a position to influence the results, either
intentionally or unintentionally. Omitted variable bias is the bias that appears in estimates of
parameters in a regression analysis when the assumed specification omits an independent variable
that should be in the model. Recency Bias is a cognitive predisposition that causes people to more
prominently recall and emphasize recent events and observations than those that occurred in the near
or distant

Pros And Cons Of Voter ID Laws
The idea of obtaining a voter ID and presenting it at polls to vote is a concern amongst Republicans
and Democrats. Republicans believe that a voter ID should be required at polling areas and create
laws in support of this notion, however Democrats believe that by passing these laws we deny the
constitutional right of citizens to vote, therefore rendering these laws unconstitutional. I for one
believe that we should have voter ID laws which required people show a form of ID at polling
stations to ensure that votes registered for a poll are that of a citizen and that of the one who is
voting. Based on the three articles from The Enduring Debate, debating whether we should have
Voter ID laws, we can see as to how voting fraud can be committed and how it's only use may
possibly be used to push the Republican agenda and disrupt the Democrats agenda. In John Fund's
reflection, the Department of Investigation went through a procedure to see how easy it was to
commit voter fraud. The DOI had sent out agents to show up at 63 polling places all who "pretended
to be voters who should have been turned away by election officials; the agents assumed names of
individuals who had died or moved out of town, or who were sitting in jail. 61 instances, or 97
percent of the time, the testers were allowed to vote." (Fund, pg 353) After gathering this evidence
that voter fraud was possible and way easier than it seemed, they published a report which accused
the city's Board of Elections voting

Inductive Arguments For Public Polls
uments: Public Polls Public opinion polls come in a wide–set of different subjects and are good
examples of inductive arguments that are seen and used in our day to day lives to measure the
public's views regarding a particular topic or topics done so by taking a non–biased
survey/questions. This is an excellent example of inductive arguments, because the person or
party/entity conducting these surveys, is looking to validate their argument and assumptions, or to
provide a guarantee of truth in the concluding result. However, it is not simply easy to rely on
"experts" and believe that the data from these polls they collect, are completely accurate and are not
skewed from their own biases. Since a survey is an inductive generalization, a sample is taken from
the target population from which a conclusion is drawn regarding the entire population.Which
makes these inductive arguments fall into two categories: either weak or strong. In order to
determine if the poll is weak or strong, it is important to assess the ways in which the
information/data for the poll is collected and how authentic it is. In order for the results, or
conclusion, to be strong, the inductive generalization must not contain any fallacies. The sample size
must also be large enough to represent a population, so it is not biased. A strong poll would show
that the population was selected randomly, with consistently strong statistics, and a low margin error
. A weak poll on the other hand, would be one

Is Time We Stopped Pretending?
is time we stopped pretending. Voters simply don 't know what the best economic policy is. The
average voter does not, and should not be expected to, have an understanding of economics which
allows them to pick an economic model at the polls. Despite this, people think that their opinion on
the economy should help decide their vote. In fact, voting patterns are almost independent of
economic policy: the only contributing factor is whether the policy is interpreted as left wing or
right wing (Carreirao 78). What people actually base their voting decisions on has little to do with
economic policy, or any policy for that matter (Carreirao 88). The obvious conclusion is to do away
with the discussion of economics and other such things as if they affect our decision. To continue to
do so is bad for our democracy: voters do not vote based on policy, politicians in turn to make bad
economic decisions, because their policy does not affect the vote, and this means voters should
instead vote based on policies they understand. The main reason for this is that voters often don 't
vote based upon economic policy, even when they think they do. This may seem like a wild
statement, but it is based upon two empirically verifiable facts. These two facts are as follows:
economic leaning does not correlate with voting outcome and voting is much more correlated with
other factors, such as religion and the candidate 's appearance of competency (Carreirao 88–90).
Carreirao found that both of

The Reliability Of Polls
With the 2016 Presidential Election approaching pollsters have been conducting several polls. The
poll industry has recently made two high profile mistakes–the 2014 election and a mishap involving
2016 presidential candidates Clinton and Sanders. Even the most prestigious polling companies
predicted the wrong outcomes. This has led to a nationwide discussion about the reliability of polls.
The reliability of polls has been on a downward spiral for years. Polls have become far less reliable
due to an increase in cellphones, internet based polls, annoying telemarketers, and the technique of
"weighting" polls. The first mobile telephone call was made in 1973. The phone weighed over a
pound and the device was quite expensive. Having a cellphone

Successful Political Campaign
There are many components of a successful political campaign. The first component would be to
build name recognition. Since many citizens are not well informed about congressional candidates,
getting the candidates name out there can deliver a few extra percentage points of support. The
second would be voter mobilization. Turnout to voting polls is not automatic. Just because someone
supports a candidate that does not mean that they will actually go to the polls and vote. Candidates
have to make sure that they get the people out to vote and do whatever they can to make sure they
do. Campaign professionals refer to voter mobilization efforts as GOTV which means get out the
vote or ground game. They use door–to–door campaigning methods, phone banks, and e–mails. The
third component is decreasing opponent's chances. They try to decrease support and turnout of their
rival. One way they do ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
You want to outline your campaign strategy and you want to keep it focused. Fundraising is an
important part of any campaign in the beginning. You can use professional consultants or you can
talk with a consultant who is working on multiple races. There is also a number of staff members
that can work with you on fundraising. During fundraising, the staff will do things like drafting and
supervising mail and Emil fundraising efforts. They work with people to hold fundraising events and
they make call lists and meetings with potential donors to the candidate. It can also be nice to have
an accountant. If you have an accountant, they can keep track of everything like funds raised, budget
details, and how much cash is on hand. The campaign staff is also a crucial part of the campaign
organization. You will need a campaign manager to coordinate the operations of the campaign. You
need the political consultants which help advise the campaigns on what they do. They also do the
research on the voters and the

Presidential Election Results
How Did Pollsters Get It Wrong?
On last November 8th, the results of presidential election were a surprise and shock to most people
around the world, especially US residents because they consistently projected Hillary Clinton would
defeated Donald Trump. According to the article "Presidential Election Results: Donald J. Trump
Wins" in The New York Times, the total votes for Clinton were 62,391,335 (48%) and for Trump
were 61,125,956 (47%). However, in contrast to earlier predictions, some states elected to Trump
instead of Clinton, and this result brought victory for Trump in the last hours of election day. In
details, Trump had 6 electoral votes from Iowa, 10 electoral votes from Wisconsin, 18 electoral
votes from Ohio, 20 electoral votes ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
"There is a great deal of speculation but no clear answers as to the cause of the disconnect, but there
is one point of agreement: Across the board, polls underestimated Trump's level of support.", said
Andrew Mercer, Claudia Deane and Kyley McGeeney authors on their article "Why 2016 election
polls missed their mark" in Pew Research Center. They also gave some several possible
explanations for the misstep. The first factor might be what pollsters refer to as nonresponse bias.
"Some groups, include the less educated voters who were a key demographic for Trump on Election
Day, are consistently hard for pollsters to reach." Then, the result would be a strongly pro–Trump
segment of the population that simply did not show up in the polls in proportion to their actual share
of the population. The next factor was many of those who were polled simply were not honest about
whom they intended to vote for. The explanation for this factor was "support for Trump was socially
undesirable, and that his supporters were unwilling to admit their support to pollsters". In 1982, a
similar case occurred in the gubernatorial election in California. Democrat Tom Bradley, the black
mayor of Los Angeles, lost to Republican George Deukmejian despite having been ahead in the
polls even though the voters were reluctant to tell interviewers that they were not going to vote for a
black candidate. The third factor "involves the way pollsters identify likely voters. Because we can't
know in advance who is actually going to vote, pollsters develop models predicting who is going to
vote and what the electorate will look like on Election Day." This is a notoriously difficult task, and
small differences in assumptions can produce sizable differences in election

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