Powering the VR/AR Ecosystem 2017-01-17
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Slides from my talk at VR Tuesday 1/17/17 https://www.meetup.com/VRTuesday/events/236341831/
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Powering the VR/AR Ecosystem 2017-01-17
- 1. Tony Parisi Head of VR/AR Strategy Unity Technologies Powering the VR/AR Ecosystem
- 3. “If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.” — Henry Ford
- 5. 2016 202020182017 2019 Adoption/Value Time “gap of disappointment”
- 7. 32% of the top 100 mobile games 5B mobile app installs Q4 2016 2.4B unique mobile devices 60% of VR/AR developers >50% of Daydream launch apps
- 8. AFP PHOTO
- 13. VR/AR Features
- 15. Unity 5.6 (in beta) Hardware accelerated Cross platform 4K videos playback H264, vp8, any codec supported by the platform New Video Player
- 16. Timeline Animation Tool Preview available now; ships later this year
- 18. Open source project Released December, 2016
- 19. Cinematic VR Enterprise VR/AR Artist Tools Web On the Horizion
- 20. Thank You
Editor's Notes
- It’s safe to say that the people in this room collectively feel that the technologies behind VR, AR and MR will have an impact in the same way that great technical advances of past generations have changed our lives… with each technological shift bringing new magic into the world
- We’re in the midst of this big transition, one as fundamental as the others that have come before. But we don’t have the benefit of hindsight to know exactly how and when it will happen. Every step change has had its detractors, encountering pushback and delaying the time it took to grab hold. When Henry Ford was first developing the automobile, he famously remarked, “If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said ’faster horses.’” The implications of a revolutionary invention can’t be fully appreciated until long after they are first introduced. So here we are, a few years into the resurgence of consumer virtual and augmented reality, and we very much like the early auto industry. We don’t know all the great ways in which this new technology is going to be used– and we can’t possibly predict. We are starting off by duplicating ideas and models that worked previously– but we can only guess as to whether those are going to work. All we know is, like the innovations of earlier times, this one is going to change a lot about the way we live, work and play. Maybe everything.
- With this kind of potential, and the amazing work we’ve seen to date, we take the success of immersive technology for granted and see it as inevitable. You’ve probably seen this chart if you’ve been tracking our thoughts on the AR VR market. The yellow line on the graph indicates expectation – most of us expect a steadily growing ramp to billions of headsets by 2020. As with all new markets, the reality is going to be more like the white curve: starting slowly at first, then picking up steam and finally growing exponentially. The difference between the expectation and the reality is what we call <CLICK> the ”GAP OF DISAPPOINTMENT,” because this is the time when expectations get ahead of reality and bad things can happen: companies can overspend, startups can run out of money, and the press can take any indication of slowdown or market correction as a sign of disaster. But we know better. While we are bullish on the long-term outcome of virtual, augmented and mixed reality, we know that path to get there will not be a straight line, or a smooth road. There will hurdles along the way. We believe that the gap of disappointment will be real… but it’s important to note, in the end, it’ll be fairly meaningless. 2017 will be a year of slow and steady adoption, but as I like to say: you don’t get to 1 Billion headsets without getting through the first few million. 2018 and certainly 2019 we will see significant pickup, and you have to remember, if that’s the case, it means people are gearing up now to create some of those blockbuster experiences. So, folks… we’re right on track.
- With this kind of potential, and the amazing work we’ve seen to date, we take the success of immersive technology for granted and see it as inevitable. You’ve probably seen this chart if you’ve been tracking our thoughts on the AR VR market. The yellow line on the graph indicates expectation – most of us expect a steadily growing ramp to billions of headsets by 2020. As with all new markets, the reality is going to be more like the white curve: starting slowly at first, then picking up steam and finally growing exponentially. The difference between the expectation and the reality is what we call <CLICK> the ”GAP OF DISAPPOINTMENT,” because this is the time when expectations get ahead of reality and bad things can happen: companies can overspend, startups can run out of money, and the press can take any indication of slowdown or market correction as a sign of disaster. But we know better. While we are bullish on the long-term outcome of virtual, augmented and mixed reality, we know that path to get there will not be a straight line, or a smooth road. There will hurdles along the way. We believe that the gap of disappointment will be real… but it’s important to note, in the end, it’ll be fairly meaningless. 2017 will be a year of slow and steady adoption, but as I like to say: you don’t get to 1 Billion headsets without getting through the first few million. 2018 and certainly 2019 we will see significant pickup, and you have to remember, if that’s the case, it means people are gearing up now to create some of those blockbuster experiences. So, folks… we’re right on track.
- While there’ll always be a market for great high end VR devices, like the Vive and Rift, mobile will lead the way to mass adoption and speed these new realities to the world with its use. The mobile VR explosion began with Google Cardboard. Through January 2016, over 5 million Cardboard viewers had shipped and over 1,000 compatible applications had been published. GearVR Oculus had 1Million users in April of this year and more recently RelayCars passed the half million download mark with their free app in which users can explore realistic models of cars, watch videos, head to virtual showrooms and even take virtual test drives Google announced Daydream, which is going to bring a controller, lighter weight and cross hardware compatibility to mobile. Facebook 360 was introduced in June, and while you don’t need to use a headset, there are two important things that are happening. First, it gets users used to moving around in 3 dimensions while looking at their phone, and 2nd, it CAN be used with both GearVR and Rift. This is a great strategy to get the masses comfortable with VR step by step. I don’t know about you, but I often find myself trying to drag flat videos and photos around on my desktop or touch screen; I have just come to expect that everything is 360. I don’t believe we are far off when this media type is going to be prevalent. Finally AR recently hit the mainstream with the Made with Unity title Pokemon GO, We are amidst one of the Meme moments of 2016, and very likely one of the most widely used apps on mobile to date, possibly surpassing some social networks
- How will we get there? Well, every town, city or even world ever built relies on people, but it also relies on their ability to use a variety of tools to build the houses, infrastructure and governance. The virtual worlds are no different and are going to require some pretty amazing tools, the most used right now being? Yes, you guessed it. Unity. Now for a relatively short, shameless plug, that happens to tie in perfectly with what we're here to talk about.
- You may recognize the young gentleman on the screen behind me: that’s Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg at the Oculus Connect conference last month. In his keynote address, he laid out Facebook’s vision of a social interface of the near future, with live avatars, photo sharing, video chat with his wife working at the hospital, and even a webcam to keep an eye on his dog at home. Very cool stuff, made with Unity.
- And that wasn’t the only thing made with Unity for Oculus Connect. Oculus Rooms, Oculus Avatars and 22 of the 25 titles demonstrated on the show floor were made with Unity. 22 out of 25… that’s incredible. But we want more: we want to help you make all of the world’s VR and AR.
- We remain committed to our three core principles Democratize development - everyone can bring their creations to life, including a new wave of creators in AR and VR Solving hard problems - 25+ platforms, amazing graphics like adam Make developers successful – making a profit is hard… help…paid out more to developers than we've made ourselves
- Adam showed the way Short film created with a small team using Unity and rendered in real time so you could see the possibilities Used Cinematic Image Effects tools (like Screenspace Raytraced Reflections, Depth of Field, Tonemapping and Colour Grading and more) available on the Asset Store Team developed custom tools and features on top of Unity including volumetric fog, a transparency shader and motion blur to cover specific production needs. Now the assets used to create it are available on asset store for you to use and create your own amazing experiences We've recruited a team of great technologists in Paris to help us do even more on the graphics side Best talent, hardest problems Highly specialized and ready to help solve hard problems for artists from advanced particles to lighting to photogrammetry
- Phenomenal year for platform growth, we're bringing game and experience creators access to all the platforms that matter This year, we've added native & optimized support for Amazon FIreOS, Microsoft HoloLens, Google Cardboard & Daydream, and SteamVR Brought us to 28 platforms and technologies
- Playing videos is a very common scenario, and even more in VR with the growing amount of 360 video. So it was natural tackle this seriously, so, it’s my pleasure to announce Unity is introducing ….
- [slide - new video player] a completely new video player. Rebuilt from scratch with performance in mind, like being able to play smoothly 4k videos, and perfect for 360 VR videos we’re also making it cross platform of course. The video player is hardware accelerated, It’s based on h264 and vp8 and can use any codec supported by the platform. coming to unity 5.6.
- We showed you our EditorVR concept at the Vision conference in February We’re pleased to announce the experimental build will be available by the end of the year, you'll see the new version later in the presentation. We’ve provided a solid foundation with tools you need to effectively develop in VR. To that end, the whole EditorVR package is completely open-source, with an open API.