Shale Gas Water Modeling and Sustainability Planning

1. Shale Gas Water Modeling
and Sustainability Planning
Atlantic Council
Produced Water Workshop
Washington D.C.
June 24-25, 2013
Tom Hayes
Environmental Engineering
Gas Technology Institute

2. 22
An Assertion
The sustainable production of energy from shale gas
wells is dependent on the economics and environmental
impact of water and solid waste management.

3. 33
Today’s Discussion
 Variable and Complex Nature of Shale Gas Industry
Operations
 Large Opex Expenditures Involved in Movement of
Water and Wastes
 Life Cycle Modeling Tracks Rollups of Large Mass
Flows and Offers Capability to Predict Future
Challenges and Solutions
 Examples of Year By Year Variable Flows of Water,
Salts and Solid Waste
 Future Outlook: Life Cycle Analysis Importance to
Sustainability Planning

4. 44
Nature of the Shale Gas Industry:
Dynamic – Not Steady State
 Not like Brick and Mortar Factories
 Total Life Cycle of Development Areas: 30 to 50 yrs
 Substantial Year-by-year changes:
 Numbers of wells drilled (ramp up/plateau/ramp down)
 Perturbations in pace of development (e.g. var rig counts)
 Changing Water and Solid Waste Outputs
 Changing Regional Demands Year by Year
 Water
 Transportation
 Infrastructure

5. 55
Variable Annual Impacts
 Demand for fresh water
 Water storage footprint
 Transportation of water
 Truck Traffic
 Air Emissions
 Carbon Footprint
 Road Wear & Damage
 Noise
 Wildlife
 Well Field Air Emissions (Very Transient)
 VOC Emissions from hydraulic fracturing sites.
 MACT Emissions from On-Site Diesels

6. 66
Potential Regional Constraints
to Shale Gas Development
 Droughts (e.g. Barnett, Eagle Ford, Western Shale Gas
Plays)
 Need: > 4 MG per horizontal well completion
 Water sourcing often competes with community
supplies
 Lack of Class II well disposal for brines (e.g. Marcellus,
Western Shale Gas Plays)
 Increases transportation distances and costs
 Perceived & Real Environmental Impacts
 Increased Regulatory Pressures
 Watershed allocations of water
 USEPA: VOC Issues / Fracking Impacts

7. 7
Water Based Life Cycle Model
Tracking of a Dynamic System
 Brine Generation
 Solid Waste Output
 Salt Output
 Environ Impacts
 Water Demands
Data-Driven Decisions
for Improved
Long Term Planning
Water Based Life
Cycle Model
Useful Projections
Flowback and PW
Generation and
Characteristics
Well Drilling &
HF Schedules
Water Reuse
Opportunities
Water Treatment
& Disposal
Options
Uncertainties
& Real Time Data
Analysis

8. 88
Life Cycle Analysis
• Purpose: Examine long term (30+ years) water
management strategies for a development area.
• Approach: Use field data (from more than 25 well
locations) and current management practices to
project water reuse capacity, water generation, salt
generation, solid waste output and salt concentration
profiles
• Spreadsheet Model was developed to simulate year by
year water and solid waste flows & characteristics
through the life cycle of a development area

9. 9

10. 1010
Typical Flowback Water Characteristics
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
0 20 40 60 80 100
Days from Hydraulic Fracture Event
Flowback Water Total Dissolved Solids, mg/l
1000
0
3000
AveFlow*intheInterval,Bbl/d
200014 - 90 Day
Interval
•Average Daily Flow of the Flowback Water Output within Each Interval

11. 1111
Example Run of the Model
More than 30 Data Inputs
Base case assumed:
• County size development area
• 300 Well Fields, 16 Wells/Field 4800 wells,
• Completion + 3 refractures per well (3 yr spacing)
• 33% Reuse Water/ Total Fracture Volume
• Ave PW generation = 7 bbl/d
Results:
• Cross Over starts going critical in year 12
• Logistical difficulty with reuse in about a decade

12. 1212
Water-based Life Cycle (Marcellus Shale)
Crossover
Point
Good Level of
Water Reuse
Opportunities
Diminished
Water Reuse
Opportunities
2/3 of salt output

13. 13
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0 10 20 30 40 50
CumulativeBarrels(million)
Years
Flowback + Produced Water (Cumulative Volumes)
3 Refractures
2 Refractures
1 Refracture
0 Refractures
Cumulative Water Output from a
Development Area
Shaded Area = Post Crossover

14. 14
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
0 10 20 30 40 50
CumulativeSalt,MillionsPounds
Years
Produced Salt
3 Refractures
2 Refractures
1 Refracture
0 Refractures
Cumulative Salt Output from a
Development Area
Shaded Area = Post Crossover
Planning Issue?

15. 15
Annual Solid Waste Output from a
Development Area
Residential Solid Waste
Generation from Ave
PA County
LF Planning Issue?

16. 1616
GTI Life Cycle Analysis Model
Addresses Multiple Dynamic Issues
 Flowback and Produced Water Management
 Timing of Issues and Required Changes in Water
Management
 Predicting Regional Infrastructure Required to
Support Shale Gas Industry Growth
 Road Wear / Traffic
 Landfill Capacity Plans and Alternative Solutions
 Regional Environmental Impact in Future Years
 Wellfield Emissions: VOC / GHG / NOx
 Transportation Impacts: MACT
 Other Environmental Impacts

17. 1717
GTI Life Cycle Model
Development Continues
 Customized Database Management for Flowback and
Produced Water Management
 GIS Positioning Data Inputs
 VOC Data Management, Forecasts of Emissions and
Atmospheric Model Interface
 Wellfield Gas Generation Data vs. Time
 Probabilistic Analysis to Manage Data Limitations,
Uncertainties, and Risk.
 Multi-client program. Seeking cooperators/supporters.

18. 1818
Summary
 Shale Gas: Dynamic - Not Steady State
 There Are Substantial Year-by-year changes:
 Numbers of wells drilled (ramp up/plateau/ramp down)
 Non-steady pace of development (e.g. var rig counts)
 There are Changing Water & Solid Waste Outputs
 Regional Demands Change from Year to Year
 Water / Transportation / Infrastructure / Landfills
 GTI’s Life Cycle Model is Data Driven, and an Effective
Decision Tool to Improve Planning for Sustainable
Shale Gas Development - Valuable to Industry,
Policy Makers, and Regional Planners.

19. Thank You
Tom Hayes
Environmental Engineering
Gas Technology Institute
847-768-0722
Tom.hayes@gastechnology.org
Trevor Smith
Business Development
Gas Technology Institute
847-768-0795
Trevor.smith@gastechnology.org