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Introduction to 
                      Introduction to
                     Physics of Failure 
                     Physics of Failure
                              y
                    Reliability Methods
                             James McLeish
                            ©2011 ASQ & Presentation James
                            Presented live on Feb 09th, 2012




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liability Calendar/Webinars ‐
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ASQ Reliability Division 
                 ASQ Reliability Division
                 English Webinar Series
                 English Webinar Series
                  One of the monthly webinars 
                  One of the monthly webinars
                    on topics of interest to 
                      reliability engineers.
                    To view recorded webinar (available to ASQ Reliability 
                        Division members only) visit asq.org/reliability
                                             )              /

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                    webinars visit reliabilitycalendar.org and select English 
                    Webinars to find links to register for upcoming events


http://reliabilitycalendar.org/The_Re
liability_Calendar/Webinars_
liability Calendar/Webinars ‐
_English/Webinars_‐_English.html
Webinar Series
• Next Sessions
    English series
    Thursday, March 8, 2012, Noon - 1:00 pm EDT
    TOPIC: Field Failure Analysis Using Root Cause
 Pattern Diagrams
    BY: Bob Lloyd

    Thursday, Apr 12, 2012, Noon - 1:00 pm EDT
    TOPIC: The Proper Analysis Approach
 for Life Data
    BY: Dr. Huairui Guo

    Chinese series
    Beijing Time: Feb 15, 2012; 11:00AM – 12:00PM
    TOPIC: Rapid Reliability Demonstration Tests 
(快速可靠性验证试验)
    BY:Guangbin Yang (杨广斌)
Reliability and Quality Supervisor 
(可靠性与质量主管)

• www.reliabilitycalendar.org under webinars and short courses
• for full schedule
• Recordings at www.asq.org/reliability under webinars or short
  courses
Announcements

  We are looking volunteers to support the following programs:
                           Webinars
                          Newsletter
                    The Reliability Calendar
                           Websites
                    New Member Welcome
                      And other programs

         Discussion groups (ASQ forums & Linkedin)
         We invite you to join our ranks as a member
              visit www.ASQ.ORG/membership
   Questions, comments, suggestions, or desire to volunteer
       or presenter, please contact: chair@asqrd.org
Brought to you in part by…
Today’s Speaker
James McLeish
Bio: James McLeish is a senior technical staff consultant
and manager of the Michigan office of DfR (Design for
Reliability) Solutions, a Failure Analysis, Laboratory
Services and Reliability Physics Engineering Consulting
Firm headquartered in College Park Maryland.

Mr. McLeish is a senior member of the ASQ Reliability Division and a core
member of the SAE’s Reliability Standard Committee with over 32 years of
automotive and military E/E experience in design, development, validation
testing, production quality and field reliability. He has held numerous technical
expert and management position in automotive electronics product design,
development, vehicle electrical system integration, product assurance,
validation testing and warranty problem solving as an E/E Reliability Manager
and E/E Quality/Reliability/Durability (QRD) technical specialists at General
Motors.
Introduction to Physics of Failure
 Reliability Methods


James McLeish               ASQ Reliability Division Webinar   Feb. 9, 2012



jmcleish@dfrsolutions.com
© 2012 DfR2007
© 2011 - 2010
   2004 & ASQ
Physics of Failure / Reliability Physics Definitions
o   Physics of Failure - A Formalized and Structured approach to
    Root Cause Failure Analysis that focuses on total learning
    and not only fixing a current problem.
    o   To achieve an understanding of “CAUSE & EFFECT” Failure Mechanisms
        AND the variable factors that makes them “APPEAR” to be Irregular Events.
    o   Combines Material Science, Physics & Chemistry
        with Statistics, Variation Theory & Probabilistic Mechanics.
        o   A Marriage of Deterministic Science with Probabilistic Variation Theory
            for achieving comprehensive Product Integrity and Reliability by Design Capabilities.

    o   Failure of a physical device or structure (i.e. hardware)
        can be attributed to the gradual or rapid degradation of the material(s) in the device
        in response to the stress or combination of stresses the device is exposed to, such as:
        o   Thermal, Electrical, Chemical, Moisture, Vibration, Shock, Mechanical Loads . . .

    o   Failures May Occur:
        o   Prematurely because device is weaken by a variable fabrication or assemble defect.
        o   Gradually due to a wear out issue.
        o   Erratically based on a chance encounter with an
            Excessive stress that exceeds the capabilities/strength of a device,



© 2012 DfR2007
© 2011 - 2010
   2004 & ASQ                                                                                       7
Physics of Failure / Reliability Physics Definitions
o   Reliability Physics (a.k.a. the PoF Engineering Approach)
    - A Proactive, Science Based Engineering Philosophy
      for applying PoF knowledge for the
      Development and Applied Science of
      Product Assurance Technology based on:
    o   Knowing how & why things fail is equally
        important to understand how & why things work.
    o   Knowledge of how thing fail and the root causes of failures
        enables engineers to identify and avoid unknowingly creating
        inherent potential failure mechanisms in new product designs
        and solve problems faster.
    o   Provides scientific basis for evaluating usage life and hazard risks of
        new materials, structures, and technologies, under actual operating conditions.
    o   Provides Tools for achieving Reliability by Design
    o       Applicable to the entire product life cycle
        o     Design, Development, Validation, Manufacturing, Usage, Service.


© 2012 DfR2007
© 2011 - 2010
   2004 & ASQ                                                                             8
The Traditional View of Quality, Reliability & Durability (QRD)
                                - Product Life Cycle Failure Rate “Bath Tub” Curve
                              Focuses on 3 Separate & Individual Life Cycle Phases
                                                                                            End of Useful Life
                             each with Separate Control & Improvement Strategies            /Typ. Replacement
                                                                                               Decision Pt.

                                                    The Bath Tub Curve
Problem or Failure Rate




                                            (Sum of 3 Independent Phenomena)
                                    But “True” Root Causes Can Be Disguised by
                               Actuarial Assumptions to Make QRD Easy to Administer
                                  This is an Inaccurate & Misleading Point of View
                                                                    Durability = Wear Out
                                  Quality = Infant Mortality
                                                                     (End of Useful Life)




                                             Reliability = Random or Chance Problems
                                                       (Constant Unavoidable)

      Time 0                      1 Year         2 Years       3 Years         4 Years            5 Years



© 2012 DfR2007
© 2011 - 2010
   2004 & ASQ                                                                                                    9
                                                                                                                 9
A “PoF FAILURE MECHANISM” Based “REALISTIC” View
                              Reveals the True Interactive Relationships Between Q, R & D
                    - Real failure rate curves are irregular, dynamic and full of valuable information,
                                     not clean smooth curves to simplify the data plots.


                                  Manuf. Variation & Error                        Weak Designs That
Problem or Failure Rate




                                    and Service Errors                             Start to Wear Out
                                    That Cause Latent                                 Prematurely
                                 Problems Throughout Life

                                                      “Cause & Effect” Root Causes
                                                  Can Be Disguised by Actuarial Statistics
                                                Once Problems Are Accurately Categorized
                                              You Have Realistic Picture of “True Root Causes”

                                                                                                  TRUE Random
                                                                                                    Problems
                                                                                                  Are Rare Once
                                                                                                   Correlated to
                                                                                                   “ACTS OF
                                                                                                  GOD & WAR”
Time                      0          1 Year            2 Years         3 Years          4 Years            5 Years



© 2012 DfR2007
© 2011 - 2010
   2004 & ASQ                                                                                                        10
                                                                                                                     10
Traditional Reliability Growth in Product Development
  Empirical “TRIAL & ERROR” Method to Demonstrate Statistical Confidence

                                                                                         4)
                                                                                       Faults  No
   1) Design                   2) Build                       3) Test
                                                                                      Detected
DESIGN - BUILD - TEST - FIX                                                              ?
         (D-B-T-F)                                                                         Yes
                                                          5) Fix Whatever
                                                               Breaks.
                                                                                              6) REPEAT 3-5
                                                                                            Until Nothing Else
  Today, This Is Not Enough!                                                                Breaks Or You Run
    1) All design issues often not well defined.                                                  Out Of
    2) Early build methods do not match final processes.                                       Time/Money.
    3) Testing doesn’t equal actual customer’s usage.
    4) Improving fault detection catches more problems, but causes more rework.
    5) Problems found too late for effective corrective action, fixes often used.
    6) Testing more parts & more/longer tests “seen as only way” to increase reliability.
    7) Can not afford the time or money to test to high reliability.
    8) Incremental improvements from faster more, capable tests still not enough.
                                                  It Is Time for a Change




© 2012 DfR2007
© 2011 - 2010
   2004 & ASQ                                                                                               11
QRD in Product Development
     - Reliability Growth Verses the QRD Challenge
o   Challenges:
     o   Increasing Electrical/Electronic Content & Complexity
          o   Increasing % of System Cost
          o   Increasing Device Complexity                            90
          o   Increasing Power consumption (Heat)
          o   Increasing Functionality & Software Complexity          80
                                                                                   1st MY
                                                                      70
     o   Rapid & Constant Technology Growth                                        2nd MY
                                                                                   3rd MY
          o   Lesson Learned Constantly Changing                      60
                                                                                   4th MY
          o   Rapidly Outdated                                        50




                                                               DPTV
                                                                                   5th MY

     o   Lack of Understanding & Confusion                            40           6th MY

          o   Design Issues That Effect QRD                           30
          o   Manufacturing Issues Effect QRD
                                                                      20
     o   Outdated Paradigms                                           10
          o   MIL HDBK 217 for Reliability Assessment
                                                                       0
              and tracking                                                 0   6       12   18   24    30      36     42   48   54   60
          o   “Test & Fix” Dev./Val. Growth
                                                                                                  Months After Sale
          o   Lack of Reliability by Design

     o   Annual Reappearance of Problems
          o   Fire Fighting
          o   Hardy Perennials
          o   Uneven Supply Chain Learning Curve

© 2012 DfR2007
© 2011 - 2010
   2004 & ASQ                                                                                                                        12
The Traditional Product Development Process (PDP) Approach is
  A Series of Design - Build - Test - Fix Growth Events

                                Emphasis       Emphasis                     Emphasis
Sketchy/          Design        QRD+P            Costly                      Watch &
Loosely            then        Growth by       Redesign         Start         Study
Defined            Build       Rounds of        /Retool      Production      Warranty
Req’mts           Product     Test Dev/Val       Fixes
                                Process

                              Part 1:                              Part 2:
                 Formal Lab & Track Dev/Val Trial    Customers Become the Unwitting
                       & Error Approach to            Test Subjects in Continued Trial
                    Finding & Fixing Problems.        & Error Tests in the Real World

                    Essentially Formalized Trial & Error
  That Starts With Product Test – To Be Good Enough To Start Production
           Then Evolves Into Continuous Improvement Activates
                      In Responses to Warranty Claims

© 2012 DfR2007
© 2011 - 2010
   2004 & ASQ                                                                       13
Reliability/Capability Growth with Traditional D-B-T-F Product
Development Processes Takes Years to Achieve Maturity
     1.00
 D         Initial Prod.                                                                                  94% R / 6% Fr.
 E        Dev. Emphasis
 S        on Performance
 I    .90 & Functional w/
 G        Non-Production
 N          Intend HW
      .80
  C                                                                                              Duane Model
 A                                                                                              Simplification of
  P                                                                                            Reliability Growth
 A .70
  B                                                                               Capability / Reliability
  I                                                                              Growth Actually Occurs in
  L                                                                                 Incremental Steps
  I .60
                                Mid Prod. Dev.
  T
                                 Emphasis on
  Y
  / .50                          Packaging & Final Prod. Dev.
  R                             HW Durability Emphasis on
  E                             w/Prod. intent Manufacturing
                                                 Process &                     Continuous Production
  L                              HW & Non-
  I .40                          Prod. Intent     Quality
 A                                 Manuf.      w/Prod. Intend
  B                                            HW & Manuf.
  I .30
  L
             Design    Alpha HW Beta HW       Proto               Production      Production       Production    Production
  I Proj.    Team     (Funct. Dev.)  (DV)
                                                    Pilot Prod.
                                              (PV) & Ramp up        1st Yr.        2nd Yr.          3rdt Yr.       4th Yr.
  T Concept   Start      B-T-F1     B-T-F2   B-T-F3  B-T-F4        P-W-F1          P-W-F2           P-W-F3        P-W-F4
  Y                                                                                                                     14
© 2011 - 2010
© 2012 DfR2007
   2004 & ASQ                                                                                                          14
If Parts Past Qualification Testing , Why Do Field failures Still Occur
        Statistically Confident - Probability of Detection X Sized Issues out of # of Y Parts
                        Not Very Effective for Issues Below 5% of Population
                                                                                          D-B-T-F is
        Probability of Detecting a Problems of Size “X” with “N” Parts on Test          Effective For
                                                                                        Finding a Few
                                                                                         Big-Medium
                                                                                            Sized
                                                                                          Problems

                                                                                                 10%
                                                                                                  5%
                                                                                                  2%
                                                                                                  1%
                                                                                                 0.5%
                                                                                                 0.2%
                                                                                                 0.1%
                                                                                                0.05%


                                                                                       But D-B-T-F is
                                                                                       Ineffective For
                                                                                       Finding Many
                                                                                            Small
                                                                                         Problems


© 2012 DfR2007
© 2011 - 2010
   2004 & ASQ                                                                                       15
Is the Solution Better Faster Reliability Growth Tests like HALT:
    Better Tests Do Find/Fix Field Some Problems Faster, But is this Enough?
     1.00
D
                  But Best in Class 98-99R @SOP
E
S
I
G      .90
N               More Capable                                                                        .97R => 3% Failures
               Accelerated Tests                                                                     by 2nd Model Year
C
A      .80       Enables Faster
P              Reliability Growth                                                                     BETTER QRD
A                (Evolutionary                                                                      ACHIEVED FASTER
B               Improvement)
I      .70
L              Implement Over                                             Traditional Reliability
I
T                  6 Years                                                        Growth
Y      .60
/
R
E
L      .50
I
A                                                                                   10-15% FASTER PRODUCT
B                                                                                        DEVELOPMENT
I      .40
L
I
T
Y
       .30
                                                                  Production          Production         Production       Production
     Proj. .       Alpha HW      Beta     Proto                     1st Yr.            2nd Yr.            3rdt Yr.          4th Yr.
                                                         Launch
    Concept       (Funct. Dev.) (DV)      (PV)   Pilot &           P-W-F1              P-W-F2             P-W-F3           P-W-F4
           Dsgn      B-T-F1              B-T-F3 Ramp up
          Team                  B-T-F2
© 2012 DfR2007
© 2011 - 2010
   2004 & ASQ                                    B-T-F4                                                                         16
Key PoF Terms and Definitions

o   Failure Mode:
     o   The EFFECT by which a failure is OBSERVED, PERCEIVED or SENSED.




o   Failure Mechanism :
     o   The PROCESS (elect., mech., phy., chem. ... etc.) that causes failures.




     o   FAILURE MODE & MECHANISM are NOT Interchangeable Terms in PoF.



© 2012 DfR2007
© 2011 - 2010
   2004 & ASQ                                                                      17
Key PoF Terms and Definitions

o   Failure Site :
      o The location of potential failures, typically the site of a designed in:




           o   stress concentrator ,



           o   design weakness or



           o   material variation or defect.

      o   Knowledge Used to Identify and Prioritized Potential Failure Sites and Risks in New
          Designs During PoF Design Reviews.




© 2012 DfR2007
© 2011 - 2010
   2004 & ASQ                                                                                   18
3 Generic PoF Failure Categories and
       Their Evaluation/Detection Methods
    GENERIC FAILURE CATEGORY                               TYP. FAILURE DETECTION
o   Errors - Incorrect Operations &                               Quality
    Variation Defects/Weaknesses.
       o   Missing parts, incorrect assembly or process.         Assurance
       o   Process control errors (Torque, Heat treat).         Immediate or
       o   Design errors                                        Latent defects
              o Missing functions,
              o Inadequate performance.
              o Inadequate strength.

o   Overstress.                                                  Performance
         Overheating.
      o
      o  Voltage/Current
                                                                  Capability
      o  Electro static discharge.                               Assessments
      o  Immediate yield, buckling, crack.
o   Wearout/Changes,
    via Damage Accumulation.                                      Stress-Life
       o  Friction wear.                                          Durability
       o  Fatigue.
       o  Corrosion.                                             Assessments
       o  Performance changes/parameter drift



© 2012 DfR2007
© 2011 - 2010
   2004 & ASQ                                                                       19
Generic Failure Categories
      Errors and Variation Issues are Everywhere
   Errors Broadest Category                                 Variation
     Errors in Design, Manufacturing, Usage & Service.
                                                               Fine line between excessive variation & out
     Missing knowledge                                         right errors.
     Human factor Issues.                                     Both related to various quality issues.

                                                                   Manufacturing equipment wear out & failure could
                                                                    be related to maintenance errors.
                                                                   Weak material could be raw material variation or
                                                                    insufficient heat treat processing errors.
                       Interface                Equipment          Equipment process capabilities limitation or
                                                                    operator set up error.



                                   Design & Process
            People
                                                                       Performance
             Usage


                        Material              Environment

                                    Noise Factors



© 2012 DfR2007
© 2011 - 2010
   2004 & ASQ                                                                                                      20
Generic Failure Categories
  Overstress - When Loading Stress Exceed Material Strength
                      STRESS/
                     STRENGTH




                                                  Variation of Design’s Material Strengths
    Typical
                                                  - Related to Process Capabilities
  Deterministic
(Nominal) Analysis


                                                               DESIGN MARGIN
               4
     How well       3
                         2
                                                               SAFETY FACTOR
                     
      do you   |         
    Understand 9
                     |                             UNRELIABILITY = Probability
                     9   |
     & Design 9      3   6                          that Load Exceed Strength
       For      %        9
                     %
    Strengths t      t   %
                         t                             Stress Variation of Usage &
    & Stresses? i    i
                 l       i                               Environments Loads &
                     l   l
                 e   e
                                                            Their Interactions
                         e      FREQUENCY OF OCCURRENCE




© 2012 DfR2007
© 2011 - 2010
   2004 & ASQ                                                                            21
Overview of How Things Age & Wear Out
 - Stress Driven Damage Accumulation in Materials
                                                                                            3. Strain :
                                                                                      Instantaneous changes
                                                                                    (materialsstructural) due
                      2. Stress                                                     to loading, different loads
                   The distribution/                                                 interact to contribute to a
                    transmission of                                                     single type of strain.
                     loading forces
                                                                                    Knowledge of how/ which
                       throughout
                                                                                    “Key Loads” act & interact
                       the device.
                                                                                    is essential for “efficiently”
                                                                                    developing good products,
                                           6. Time to Mean Failure:                   processes & evaluations.
                                 (Damage Accumulation verses Yield Strength
   1. Loads
                                  A Function of: Stress Intensity, Material
  Elect. Chem.                  Properties, & Stress Exposure Cycles/Duration].
Thermal, Mech...
                                                                                              4. Damage
                               7. Project the Distribution About the Mean                   Accumulation
  Individual or
combined, from
                                       i.e. Rate of Failure (Fall out)                    (or Stress Aging):
                               A function of variation in; Usage, Device Strength          Permanent change
 environment &
                                 & Process Quality Control (i.e. latent defects).         degradation retained
   usage act on
   materials &                     5. Failure Site & Type:                              after loads are removed.
    structure.        Typically due to a designed in: stress concentrator ,             From small incremental
                      design weakness, material/process variation or defect.             damage, accumulated
                                                                                         during periods/cycles
                                                                                           of stress exposure.




© 2012 DfR2007
© 2011 - 2010
   2004 & ASQ                                                                                                   22
Generic Failure Categories - Wearout (Damage Accumulation)
   - Over Time of Stress Exposure
                                                                 STRESS INDUCED
                       STRESS/                                      DAMAGE
                      STRENGTH
                                                                 ACCUMULATION
                                                                  Design’s Strength
                                                                 Decay/Spreads Over
                                                                    Time / Usage

                                                                  Material Decay
                                                                    Increases
                                                                 UNRELIABILITY
                                                                   OVER TIME
                  4
     How well         3                                        STRESS
                        2                                EXPOSURE TIME
      do you      |   |                                   or USAGE CYC’S
    Understand    9   9   |
     & Design     9   3   6                                    INITIAL
        For       %       9                                 UNRELIABILITY
     Strengths        %
                  t   t   %
    & Stresses?   i   i
                          t
                  l       i
                      l   l
                  e   e   e      FREQUENCY OF OCCURRENCE



© 2012 DfR2007
© 2011 - 2010
   2004 & ASQ                                                                      23
Generic Failure Categories
    Examples of Wear Out Failure Mechanism
o   Mechanical                                   Chemical / Contaminate
    o Fatigue                                      Moisture Penetration

    o Creep                                        Electro-Chemical-Migration Driven

    o Wear                                            Dendritic Growth.
o   Electrical                                     Conductive Filament Format (CFF)

    o Electro-Migration Driven                     Corrosion
      Molecular Diffusion & Inter Diffusion        Radiation Damage
    o Thermal Degradation

o   When Over Stress Issue are Detected.
    o Verify supplier’s are meeting material strength specs & purity expectation.

    o Re-evaluate field loading / stress expectation used to design the part.

    o Sort out stresses,

      o Combined stress issues are often involved.
    o Re-evaluate effectiveness of product durability testing




© 2012 DfR2007
© 2011 - 2010
   2004 & ASQ                                                                           24
Two Types of Circuit Board Related
           Vibration Durability Issues
o    Board in Resonance                                                 o     Components In Resonance.
       o   Components. Shaken Off/Fatigued                                     o   Components Shake/Fatigue themselves apart or
           by Board Motion.                                                        off the Board.
            o   By Flexing Attachment Features                                 o   Especially Large, Tall Cantilever Devices
                                                                                                   3 Med. Sized Alum CAPS
                                                      Lead Motion                                  1 Small Long Leaded Snsr
                   Bending Lead Wires                 - Flexed Down                                1 Hall Effect Sensor.
    Stressed                                          - Normal
    Solder
                                                                                                   1 Large Coil Assembly
                         Gull Wing I.C.               - Flexed up
    Joint


                               Displacement                    PC Board



    Time to Failure Determine by
     Intensity/Frequency of Stress Verses                                                                 Solder Fatigue Life
     Strength of Material                                                          Log (Peak Strain)

Steinberg’s Criterion:
    For a 10 million cycle life, Z < 0.0008995·B/(C·h·r (L1/2)).
    Ref: Vibration Analysis for Electronic Equipment, by David S. Steinberg

                                                                                                       Log (Number of Cycles to Failure)




© 2012 DfR2007
© 2011 - 2010
   2004 & ASQ                                                                                                                              25
PCB Vibration - 1st, 2nd & 3rd Harmonic Modals




     1st Harmonic                                     2nd Harmonic




                                                  3rd Harmonic


© 2012 DfR2007
© 2011 - 2010
   2004 & ASQ                                                        26
PoF Example
      – E/E Module Vibration Analysis
Connector Provides Primary PCB Support             CAE Modal Simulation of Circuit Board Flexure




                                                   Original      CAE Guided Redesign
 Transformer
 A Large Mass,
                                                                 Adds Back Edge Support
will drive a Large   Board Displacement (mils)       13.95              1.15
Vibration Modal      Natural Frequency (Hz)            89                489
    Response
                     Vib. Durability Calculation    25 Days          > 50 Years


© 2012 DfR2007
© 2011 - 2010
   2004 & ASQ                                                                                  27
Module Vibration Durability Simulation Results
          - For Alternative Board Support & Transformer Locations
    DAYS TO
     FAILURE             ORIGINAL TRANSFORMER LOCATION                                             TRANSFORMER RELOCATED
     @ 2 Hrs
    Vib / Day          || R101
                       + R102

1000M                  || R825
                       + R824
100 M

10 M

1M

100,000
                                                                               3650 Days
10,000                                                                         (10 Years)

1000

100

10

1
           Edge1     Edge1 &       Edge1 &     Edge1, Edge1 &     All Edges            Edge1     Edge1 &   Edge1 &    Edge1,     Edge1 &    All Edges
         (Connector) Corners        Middle    Corners   Edge2                        (Connector) Corners    Middle   Corners      Edge2
                                              & Middle,                                                              & Middle,
                || +        || +       || +       || +     || +         || +                || +    || +      || +       || +        || +       || +

                || +        || +       || +       || +     || +         || +                || +    || +      || +       || +        || +       || +




    © 2012 DfR2007
    © 2011 - 2010
       2004 & ASQ                                                                                                                                       28
Generic Failure Categories
        - Shock

o     Animated Simulation Visualizes Transition of the
      Shock Wave Through the Structure of the Module.
o     Peak Stresses, Material Strain, Motions &
      Displacements Can be Identified.
o     Potential Failure Sites Where Local Stresses
      Exceed Material Strength Can Be Identified &
      Prioritized.
o     Zoom In On Surface Such as Potential for Snap
      Lock Fastener Release
o     Wire Frame View Allows Xray Vision of Internal
      Features.




    © 2012 DfR2007
    © 2011 - 2010
       2004 & ASQ                                        29
Solder Thermo-Mechanical Shearing Fatigue Driven by:
Coefficient of Thermal Expansion/Contraction (CTE) Mismatch During Thermal Cycling
o   As a circuit board and its components expand and contract at different
    rates the differential strain between them is absorbed by the
    attachment system leads and solder joints which drives metal fatigue.
                                                   Coef. Of Thermal Exp. (PPM/°C)
                                                  • Chip Resistor Body:   4-5 ppm/°C
                                                  • PCB - FR4 x-y axis: 14-17 ppm/°C
                                                          FR4 z axis: 120-160 ppm/°C




© 2012 DfR2007
© 2011 - 2010
   2004 & ASQ                                                                          30
Correlation Between: Stress Driven Damage Accumulation in Materials
                         and Life Consumption Rates
o       Material N-S Curve (Number of Life Cycle at a Stress Level) (Transposed S-N) .
                                 High                                       Useful Acceleration Range
                                 (log)

                                Number
                                   of                                              Foolish Failure Region
                                 Cycles                                           INVALID TEST REGION
              Low Stress
            ~ Near “Infinite”    Low
              Life Region
                                          Low   Stress (log)    High
o   Stress - Strain Yield Curve.                                         Plastic Region

                                                                                  Excessive Plastic
                                  High
                                                                                   Deformation
                                 STRESS
                                  (psi)                                          Instantaneous or
                                                                                Near Instantaneous
                                   Low                                          Ultimate Strength or
             Elastic Region                                                        Fracture Point

                                          Low    STRAIN in/in     High

    o    Lowering the Stress in Material & Members Increases Life &Reliability

© 2012 DfR2007
© 2011 - 2010
   2004 & ASQ                                                                                               31
Solder Fatigue Life is Directly Related to Component Packaging & Solder Attachment Scheme
             Generally the IC Package Influences QRD more than the IC itself.




     Single Sided Then Thru-hole         1st Generation Quad Surface Mount      2nd Generation Quad Surface Mount
     DIP Integrated Circuits             J Lead PLCC, 1982 - Today              Fine Pitch Gull Wing I.C, 1993 - Today
     1970 ‘s- Today                      ~6 Up to 160 I/O, 1.5 in sq.,          ~54 Up to 450 I/O, 1.75 in sq
     ~4 up to 68 I/O, 1” x 3.5”          Up to 100 Meg Hz Speeds                Up to 250 Meg Hz Speeds
     Up to 10 Meg Hz Speeds.             Source of Many Reliability Problems.   >10 Time the Life of J Lead in Auto ECMs.




                 Bump & Ball Grid Arrays                                    No Lead Chip Scale Packaging (NLCSP)
                 Leadless Attachments                                       (LCCC, QFN, DFN, SON, LGA)
                 1996 - Today                                               2002 - Today
                 ~24 - 1000 I/O 1.2 in. sq                                   ~8 - 480 I/O, .75 in SQ
                 500+ 1000 Meg Hz Speeds.                                   Gigi Hz Speeds
                 Life Varies Greatly w/Size & Conf.                         Can have significantly reduces life

© 2012 DfR2007
© 2011 - 2010
   2004 & ASQ                                                                                                         32
Comparison of Through Hole Component Attachment Schemes
               - Impact of Structural Configuration & Size on Fatigue Durability
                                      Package                          I.C. Die & Die Attachment
                                                                                 Wire Bond
                                                                                    Lead Frame
                                 Lead @ Cold                                       Lead @ Cold


    Single Sided Solder Joint                  Lead @ Hot                                 Double Sided (PTH) Joints
     Allow Leads to Wiggle                                                                are 35- 55 TIMES Stronger
       Under Vib., Shock &                                                                   Lead is constrained
    Thermal Exp/Contraction                                                                 So the Rate of Fatigue
    the Joint Fatigues Faster                      DIP - Thru-hole                       Stress Aging is Much Slower

                            Automotive Fatigue Life               Automotive Fatigue Life
                             Single Sided 2-5 Yrs                  Single Sided >10 Yrs
o   Since Electrical Engineers Design Most Circuit Boards,
     o   The motivation to accepted the added costs of Plated Through Hole (PTHs) was when increasing component
         required placing component and traces on both sides of the circuits board.
     o   THE RELIABILITY OF EE MODULES SKY ROCKETED with the use of more complex Double Sides PCB.

     o   Thus More Complexity DOES NOT ALWAYS HAVE TO RESULT IN LESS RELIABILITY.
         A More Capable or Smarter Design Approach
         Can Overcome the Inherent QRD Risks of Increased Complexity


    © 2012 DfR2007
    © 2011 - 2010
       2004 & ASQ                                                                                                 33
Comparison of Leaded Surface Mount Attachment Schemes
          - Impact of Structural Configuration & Size on Fatigue Durability


                                             S. M. Pad & Solder Joint




                                          Surface Mount Devices with Gull Wing Fine Pitch Leads
     J lead - Surface Mount Devices               Are Designed as an Articulated Spring,
        - Thermal Exp/Contraction                  Their Leads Flex at Two Bend Points
Cause Rapid Fatigue Due To Lead Rocking    Instead of Transmitting Stress to the Weaker Solder
                                                       Similar Sized GWFP Devices
                                                      Avg. 10x the Durability Life of
                                            J Leaded Parts in the Same Thermal Cycling Tests.

                                           The Cost – GLFP Devices Take Up More Board Areas
                                                  So Larger Boards May Be Require to
                                                 Hold the Same Number of Components




© 2012 DfR2007
© 2011 - 2010
   2004 & ASQ                                                                                     34
PoF Thermal Cycling Solder Fatigue Model
         (Modified Engelmaier – Leadless Device)
o    Modified Engelmaier                                    LD
     o   Semi-empirical analytical approach          Dg  C    DaDT
     o   Energy based fatigue                               hs
o    Determine the strain range (Dg)
o    Where: C is a function of activation energy, temperature and dwell time,
            LD is diagonal distance, a is CTE, DT of temperature cycle & h is solder joint height

     Determine the shear                                       LD LD             hc  2   
                                   a 2  a1  DT  LD  F           hs
o
                                                                                               
     force applied at the                                                              9G a 
                                                                                              
     solder joint                                              E1 A1 E2 A2 AsGs AcGc  b  
     o   Where: F is shear force, LD is length, E is elastic modulus, A is the area, h is thickness,
                  G is shear modulus, and a is edge length of bond pad.
     o   Subscripts: 1 is component, 2 is board, s is solder joint, c is bond pad, and b is board
     o   Takes into consideration foundation stiffness and both shear and axial loads
         (Models of Leaded Components factor in lead stiffness / compliancy)

     Determine the strain energy                                          F
o
                                                          DW  0.5  Dg 
     dissipated in the solder joint                                       As
     Calculate N50 cycles-to-failure using:               N f  0.0019  DW 
o                                                                                   1
     o   An Energy Based model for SnPb
                                                          N f  0.0006061  DW 
                                                                                 1
     o   The Syed-Amkor model for SAC


© 2012 DfR2007
© 2011 - 2010
   2004 & ASQ                                                                                          35
Originally Stress Analysis and PoF Modeling was a Time Consuming Process
Requiring an Expert to Create a Custom Finite Element Analysis of Individual Issues




© 2012 DfR2007
© 2011 - 2010
   2004 & ASQ                                                                         36
PoF CAE Thermal Cycling Simulation - Reveals Issues That Could
          Never Be Seen or Measured in a Physical Test
                              BGA IC CTE = 10 PPM/°C




 Sheering                                                            Simulated
 Strain in                                                           Thermal
 Solder Balls                                                        Cycle of
                                                                     0 to +100°C




                          Circuit Board CTE = 15 PPM/°C
                          View of the outer edge balls with
           motion originating from the neutral center of the Quad BGA IC.

© 2012 DfR2007
© 2011 - 2010
   2004 & ASQ                                                                      37
PoF Durability/Reliability Risk Assessments
    PCB Plated Through Hole (PTH) Via Fatigue Analysis




                          o   When a PCB experiences thermal cycling the expansion/
                              contraction in the z-direction is much higher than that in the
                              x-y plane.
                          o   The glass fibers constrain the board in the x-y plane but not
                              through the thickness.
                          o   As a result, a great deal of stress can be built up in the
                              copper via barrels resulting in eventual cracking near the
                              center of the barrel as shown in the cross section photos.


© 2012 DfR2007
© 2011 - 2010
   2004 & ASQ                                                                             38
Plated Through Hole Via Barrel Cracking
 Fatigue Life Based On IPC TR-579
 o   Determine applied stress applied (σ)




 o   Determine strain range (∆ε)


 o   Apply calibration constants
     o   Strain distribution factor, Kd(2.5 –5.0)
     o   PTH & Cu quality factor KQ(0 –10)
 o   Iteratively calculate cycles-to-failure (Nf50)



© 2012 DfR2007
© 2011 - 2010
   2004 & ASQ                                         39
Through PoF Research Durability/Reliability Simulations for
      Virtual Reliability Growth of Electronics are Now Possible
        Start             Build &             Program Model(s)          Integrated
    with PoF/PoS          Validate       into Standalone Simple for       Into a
    Mechanism            PoF / PoS             Complex FEA             Sophisticated
     Knowledge          Math Models            Math Data Tools          CAE Tool.




                    Add in Statistical            Account for Operational
                   Tools for Variation                Loading Drift




© 2012 DfR2007
© 2011 - 2010
   2004 & ASQ                                                                          40
PoF Knowledge Enables A New Product Development Process
                       Math to Hardware


                                                MATH TO



                                              HARDWARE




A) Durability / Reliability Simulations – “A” Analysis
    o   Evaluate Durability Capability and
    o   Identify Specific Reliability Risks
    o   While Still on the CAD Screen
B) First Article Evaluation via Direct Quality Assessments – “D” Development
    o   Verify PCB Fabrication and Assembly Quality Meets Design Requirement
    o   Before Starting Stress Life Testing
C) Refocused Physical Durability Testing – “V” Validation
   w/Simulation Aided Accelerated Testing
    o   Refocused from a Discover Process to a Final Conformation Procedure


© 2012 DfR2007
© 2011 - 2010
   2004 & ASQ                                                                  41
The Auto Industry Has Reaped Significant PDP & QRD Benefits
  Through Math Based, Virtual, Computer Aided Engineering Tools
                                      Safety
                  Vehicle Structure                             Energy
A Result of
Initiatives to:
Migrate
Evaluations                           Performance Integration

from Road    Thermal                                                  Vehicle Dynamics
to Lab
to Computer,

at the
Vehicle,          Aerodynamics                                  Noise & Vibration
Subsystem &
Component                             Durability
Level




© 2012 DfR2007
© 2011 - 2010
   2004 & ASQ                                                                            42
A CAE Software Programs are now Commercially Available to
Automate CAE PoF Model Creation and Analysis
1) Design Capture – Utilize standard CAD/CAM
   Circuit Board design files to create a virtual model
2) Life-Cycle Characterization - define the reliability/durability
   objectives and expected environmental & usage conditions
   (Field or Test) under which the device is required to operate
3) Load Transformation – automated FEA creation and
   calculations that translates and distributes the
   environmental and operational loads into the stresses
   across a circuit board to each individual parts
4) PoF Durability Simulation/Reliability Analysis
   & Risk Assessment – Performs a design and application
   specific durability simulation to calculates detail life
   expectations, reliability distributions over a life tine line
   & prioritizes risks by applying PoF algorithms.


© 2012 DfR2007
© 2011 - 2010
   2004 & ASQ                                                        43
1) Semi Automated Design Capture From CAD/CAM files
    to create a CAE Virtual Model of a Product Design.




o   Creates CAE virtual model from standard circuit board
    CAD/CAM design files (Gerber or ODB Format)

© 2012 DfR2007
© 2011 - 2010
   2004 & ASQ                                               44
2) Define Test or Field Environment and Usage Profiles




o   Define simple or complex environmental or test stress profiles

© 2012 DfR2007
© 2011 - 2010
   2004 & ASQ                                                        45
3) Load Transformation in to Stresses -                  Automated FEA Mesh Creation and
Calculation of Stress/Strain Distribution Across the Device and at Each Component
                                   o   Days of FEA modeling and
                                       calculations, executed in minutes
                                   o   Without a FEA modeling expert.




      Finite Element Mesh


     1st Natural Frequency                                                 3rd Natural Frequency
                                  2nd Natural Frequency




© 2012 DfR2007
© 2011 - 2010
   2004 & ASQ                                                                                  46
4) Stress/Strain Results Become Inputs to PoF Durability/ Reliability Damage Models To
Calculate and Tally Durability Life Curve for Each Component & Each Failure Mechanism




                                                                                 Parts With Low Fatigue Endurance
                                                                                 Found In Initial Design
                                                                                 ~84% Failure Projection
                                                                                 Within Service Life,
                                                                                 Starting at ~3.8 years.




o   N50 fatigue life calculated for each of 705 components (68 part types), of a Safety Critical
    Avionics Module with risk color coding, prioritized risk listing and life distribution plots based on
    known part type failure distributions (analysis performed in <30 secs after model created).
    o   Red - Significant portion of failure distribution within service life or test duration.
    o   Yellow - lesser portion of failure distribution within service life or test duration.
    o   Green - Failure distribution well beyond service life or test duration.
(Note: N50 (i.e. Mean) life - # of thermal cycles where fatigue of 50% of the parts are expected to fail)



© 2012 DfR2007
© 2011 - 2010
   2004 & ASQ                                                                                                       47
5) PoF Durability Simulations/Reliability Risk Assessment
   Enables Virtual Reliability Growth
o   Identification of specific reliability/durability limits or deficiencies,
    of specific parts in, specific applications, enables the module
    design to be revised with more suitable/more robust parts capable
    of meeting reliability/durability objectives.
o   Reliability plot of the
    same project after
    fatigue susceptible
    parts replaced with
    electrically equivalent
    parts in component
    packages suitable for
    the application.
o   Life time failure risks reduced from ~84% to ~1.5%

© 2012 DfR2007
© 2011 - 2010
   2004 & ASQ                                                                   48
5) PoF Durability Simulations/Reliability Risk Life Curves for Each Failure
Mechanism Tallied to Produce a Combined Life Curve for the Entire Module.
                                       Over All
                                       Module
                                      Combined
                                     Failure Rate
                                                                             Thermal
                                               Vibration
                                                                             Cycling
                                                Fatigue
                                                                              Solder
                                               Wear Out
                                                                             Fatigue
                                                                             Wear Out




                                                PTH Thermal
                                               Cycling Fatigue
                                                  Wear Out

                                                            Constant Failure Rate
                                                       Generic Actuarial MTBF Database



o   Detailed Design and Application Specific PoF Life Curves are Far More
    Useful that a simple single point MTBF (Mean Time Between Failure) estimate.

© 2012 DfR2007
© 2011 - 2010
   2004 & ASQ                                                                            49
The Efficiency Improvements of a PoF Knowledge & Analysis Based Product
Development Process
D               .99R => 1% Failures
E    1.00         Simulation Based PDP
S                   Enables Dramatic
I              “Revolutionary” Improvement
G                    in Growth Rate
N      .90
                                                                                       BETTER QRD
C                                                                                    ACHIEVED FASTER
A
P      .80
A                                                                            Traditional Reliability
B                                                                                    Growth
I
L      .70
I                                                                      More Capable Accelerated Tests
T                                                                      Enables Faster Reliability Growth
Y                                                                        (Evolutionary Improvement)
/      .60
R
E
L
I      .50
A                                                                    FASTER PRODUCT
B                                                                     DEVELOPMENT
I
L                                                                     = LOWER COSTS
       .40
I
T
Y
       .30
                 Alpha HW                        Production   Production         Production            Production
     Proj. .                     Proto  Launch
                (Funct. Dev.)                      1st Yr.     2nd Yr.            3rdt Yr.               4th Yr.
    Concept                      (PV)
           Dsgn B-T-F1 Beta B-T-F3 Pilot &        P-W-F1       P-W-F2             P-W-F3                P-W-F4
          Team             (DV)        Ramp
© 2012 DfR2007
© 2011 - 2010
   2004 & ASQ
           Start          B-T-F2        up                                                                          50
                                                                                                                    50
Summary - Physics of Failure/Reliability Physics is
          Reliability Science for the Next Generation
o PoF Science based Virtual Validation Durability Simulation/
  Reliability Assessments Tools Enable Virtual Reliability
  Growth that is:
  o Faster and Cheaper than Traditional Physical
    Design, Build, Test and Fix Testing.
o Determines if a Specific Design is Theoretically Capable of
  Enduring Intended Environmental and Usage Conditions.
  o “Stress Analysis” Followed by “Material Degradation/Damage Modeling”
o Compatible with the way modern products are designed and engineered
  (i.e CAD/CAE/CAM).
o Semi Automated PoF CAE Tools Enables Rapid, Low Cost Analysis
  Without a Highly Trained CAE/PoF expert.
o Produces Significant Improvement In Accelerated Fielding of High QRD Products




© 2012 DfR2007
© 2011 - 2010
   2004 & ASQ                                                                     51
Want to Know More – Suggested Reading




© 2012 DfR2007
© 2011 - 2010
   2004 & ASQ                             52
Questions & Discussion




© 2012 DfR2007
© 2011 - 2010
   2004 & ASQ                             53
Follow Up

o   To Learn More about Physics of Failure
    Durability Simulation / Reliability Assessment Tools,

o   To Request a PDF Copy of the Presentation Slides
    o   Contact: jmcleish@dfrsolutions.com , or
                 askdfr@dfrsolutions.com 301-474-0607


    o   Thank You for Attending.




© 2012 DfR2007
© 2011 - 2010
   2004 & ASQ                                               54

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Introdution to POF reliability methods

  • 1. Introduction to  Introduction to Physics of Failure  Physics of Failure y Reliability Methods James McLeish ©2011 ASQ & Presentation James Presented live on Feb 09th, 2012 http://reliabilitycalendar.org/The_Re liability_Calendar/Webinars_ liability Calendar/Webinars ‐ _English/Webinars_‐_English.html
  • 2. ASQ Reliability Division  ASQ Reliability Division English Webinar Series English Webinar Series One of the monthly webinars  One of the monthly webinars on topics of interest to  reliability engineers. To view recorded webinar (available to ASQ Reliability  Division members only) visit asq.org/reliability ) / To sign up for the free and available to anyone live  webinars visit reliabilitycalendar.org and select English  Webinars to find links to register for upcoming events http://reliabilitycalendar.org/The_Re liability_Calendar/Webinars_ liability Calendar/Webinars ‐ _English/Webinars_‐_English.html
  • 3. Webinar Series • Next Sessions English series Thursday, March 8, 2012, Noon - 1:00 pm EDT TOPIC: Field Failure Analysis Using Root Cause
 Pattern Diagrams BY: Bob Lloyd Thursday, Apr 12, 2012, Noon - 1:00 pm EDT TOPIC: The Proper Analysis Approach
 for Life Data BY: Dr. Huairui Guo Chinese series Beijing Time: Feb 15, 2012; 11:00AM – 12:00PM TOPIC: Rapid Reliability Demonstration Tests 
(快速可靠性验证试验) BY:Guangbin Yang (杨广斌)
Reliability and Quality Supervisor 
(可靠性与质量主管) • www.reliabilitycalendar.org under webinars and short courses • for full schedule • Recordings at www.asq.org/reliability under webinars or short courses
  • 4. Announcements We are looking volunteers to support the following programs: Webinars Newsletter The Reliability Calendar Websites New Member Welcome And other programs Discussion groups (ASQ forums & Linkedin) We invite you to join our ranks as a member visit www.ASQ.ORG/membership Questions, comments, suggestions, or desire to volunteer or presenter, please contact: chair@asqrd.org
  • 5. Brought to you in part by…
  • 6. Today’s Speaker James McLeish Bio: James McLeish is a senior technical staff consultant and manager of the Michigan office of DfR (Design for Reliability) Solutions, a Failure Analysis, Laboratory Services and Reliability Physics Engineering Consulting Firm headquartered in College Park Maryland. Mr. McLeish is a senior member of the ASQ Reliability Division and a core member of the SAE’s Reliability Standard Committee with over 32 years of automotive and military E/E experience in design, development, validation testing, production quality and field reliability. He has held numerous technical expert and management position in automotive electronics product design, development, vehicle electrical system integration, product assurance, validation testing and warranty problem solving as an E/E Reliability Manager and E/E Quality/Reliability/Durability (QRD) technical specialists at General Motors.
  • 7. Introduction to Physics of Failure Reliability Methods James McLeish ASQ Reliability Division Webinar Feb. 9, 2012 jmcleish@dfrsolutions.com © 2012 DfR2007 © 2011 - 2010 2004 & ASQ
  • 8. Physics of Failure / Reliability Physics Definitions o Physics of Failure - A Formalized and Structured approach to Root Cause Failure Analysis that focuses on total learning and not only fixing a current problem. o To achieve an understanding of “CAUSE & EFFECT” Failure Mechanisms AND the variable factors that makes them “APPEAR” to be Irregular Events. o Combines Material Science, Physics & Chemistry with Statistics, Variation Theory & Probabilistic Mechanics. o A Marriage of Deterministic Science with Probabilistic Variation Theory for achieving comprehensive Product Integrity and Reliability by Design Capabilities. o Failure of a physical device or structure (i.e. hardware) can be attributed to the gradual or rapid degradation of the material(s) in the device in response to the stress or combination of stresses the device is exposed to, such as: o Thermal, Electrical, Chemical, Moisture, Vibration, Shock, Mechanical Loads . . . o Failures May Occur: o Prematurely because device is weaken by a variable fabrication or assemble defect. o Gradually due to a wear out issue. o Erratically based on a chance encounter with an Excessive stress that exceeds the capabilities/strength of a device, © 2012 DfR2007 © 2011 - 2010 2004 & ASQ 7
  • 9. Physics of Failure / Reliability Physics Definitions o Reliability Physics (a.k.a. the PoF Engineering Approach) - A Proactive, Science Based Engineering Philosophy for applying PoF knowledge for the Development and Applied Science of Product Assurance Technology based on: o Knowing how & why things fail is equally important to understand how & why things work. o Knowledge of how thing fail and the root causes of failures enables engineers to identify and avoid unknowingly creating inherent potential failure mechanisms in new product designs and solve problems faster. o Provides scientific basis for evaluating usage life and hazard risks of new materials, structures, and technologies, under actual operating conditions. o Provides Tools for achieving Reliability by Design o Applicable to the entire product life cycle o Design, Development, Validation, Manufacturing, Usage, Service. © 2012 DfR2007 © 2011 - 2010 2004 & ASQ 8
  • 10. The Traditional View of Quality, Reliability & Durability (QRD) - Product Life Cycle Failure Rate “Bath Tub” Curve Focuses on 3 Separate & Individual Life Cycle Phases End of Useful Life each with Separate Control & Improvement Strategies /Typ. Replacement Decision Pt. The Bath Tub Curve Problem or Failure Rate (Sum of 3 Independent Phenomena) But “True” Root Causes Can Be Disguised by Actuarial Assumptions to Make QRD Easy to Administer This is an Inaccurate & Misleading Point of View Durability = Wear Out Quality = Infant Mortality (End of Useful Life) Reliability = Random or Chance Problems (Constant Unavoidable) Time 0 1 Year 2 Years 3 Years 4 Years 5 Years © 2012 DfR2007 © 2011 - 2010 2004 & ASQ 9 9
  • 11. A “PoF FAILURE MECHANISM” Based “REALISTIC” View Reveals the True Interactive Relationships Between Q, R & D - Real failure rate curves are irregular, dynamic and full of valuable information, not clean smooth curves to simplify the data plots. Manuf. Variation & Error Weak Designs That Problem or Failure Rate and Service Errors Start to Wear Out That Cause Latent Prematurely Problems Throughout Life “Cause & Effect” Root Causes Can Be Disguised by Actuarial Statistics Once Problems Are Accurately Categorized You Have Realistic Picture of “True Root Causes” TRUE Random Problems Are Rare Once Correlated to “ACTS OF GOD & WAR” Time 0 1 Year 2 Years 3 Years 4 Years 5 Years © 2012 DfR2007 © 2011 - 2010 2004 & ASQ 10 10
  • 12. Traditional Reliability Growth in Product Development Empirical “TRIAL & ERROR” Method to Demonstrate Statistical Confidence 4) Faults No 1) Design 2) Build 3) Test Detected DESIGN - BUILD - TEST - FIX ? (D-B-T-F) Yes 5) Fix Whatever Breaks. 6) REPEAT 3-5 Until Nothing Else Today, This Is Not Enough! Breaks Or You Run 1) All design issues often not well defined. Out Of 2) Early build methods do not match final processes. Time/Money. 3) Testing doesn’t equal actual customer’s usage. 4) Improving fault detection catches more problems, but causes more rework. 5) Problems found too late for effective corrective action, fixes often used. 6) Testing more parts & more/longer tests “seen as only way” to increase reliability. 7) Can not afford the time or money to test to high reliability. 8) Incremental improvements from faster more, capable tests still not enough. It Is Time for a Change © 2012 DfR2007 © 2011 - 2010 2004 & ASQ 11
  • 13. QRD in Product Development - Reliability Growth Verses the QRD Challenge o Challenges: o Increasing Electrical/Electronic Content & Complexity o Increasing % of System Cost o Increasing Device Complexity 90 o Increasing Power consumption (Heat) o Increasing Functionality & Software Complexity 80 1st MY 70 o Rapid & Constant Technology Growth 2nd MY 3rd MY o Lesson Learned Constantly Changing 60 4th MY o Rapidly Outdated 50 DPTV 5th MY o Lack of Understanding & Confusion 40 6th MY o Design Issues That Effect QRD 30 o Manufacturing Issues Effect QRD 20 o Outdated Paradigms 10 o MIL HDBK 217 for Reliability Assessment 0 and tracking 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 o “Test & Fix” Dev./Val. Growth Months After Sale o Lack of Reliability by Design o Annual Reappearance of Problems o Fire Fighting o Hardy Perennials o Uneven Supply Chain Learning Curve © 2012 DfR2007 © 2011 - 2010 2004 & ASQ 12
  • 14. The Traditional Product Development Process (PDP) Approach is A Series of Design - Build - Test - Fix Growth Events Emphasis Emphasis Emphasis Sketchy/ Design QRD+P Costly Watch & Loosely then Growth by Redesign Start Study Defined Build Rounds of /Retool Production Warranty Req’mts Product Test Dev/Val Fixes Process Part 1: Part 2: Formal Lab & Track Dev/Val Trial Customers Become the Unwitting & Error Approach to Test Subjects in Continued Trial Finding & Fixing Problems. & Error Tests in the Real World Essentially Formalized Trial & Error That Starts With Product Test – To Be Good Enough To Start Production Then Evolves Into Continuous Improvement Activates In Responses to Warranty Claims © 2012 DfR2007 © 2011 - 2010 2004 & ASQ 13
  • 15. Reliability/Capability Growth with Traditional D-B-T-F Product Development Processes Takes Years to Achieve Maturity 1.00 D Initial Prod. 94% R / 6% Fr. E Dev. Emphasis S on Performance I .90 & Functional w/ G Non-Production N Intend HW .80 C Duane Model A Simplification of P Reliability Growth A .70 B Capability / Reliability I Growth Actually Occurs in L Incremental Steps I .60 Mid Prod. Dev. T Emphasis on Y / .50 Packaging & Final Prod. Dev. R HW Durability Emphasis on E w/Prod. intent Manufacturing Process & Continuous Production L HW & Non- I .40 Prod. Intent Quality A Manuf. w/Prod. Intend B HW & Manuf. I .30 L Design Alpha HW Beta HW Proto Production Production Production Production I Proj. Team (Funct. Dev.) (DV) Pilot Prod. (PV) & Ramp up 1st Yr. 2nd Yr. 3rdt Yr. 4th Yr. T Concept Start B-T-F1 B-T-F2 B-T-F3 B-T-F4 P-W-F1 P-W-F2 P-W-F3 P-W-F4 Y 14 © 2011 - 2010 © 2012 DfR2007 2004 & ASQ 14
  • 16. If Parts Past Qualification Testing , Why Do Field failures Still Occur Statistically Confident - Probability of Detection X Sized Issues out of # of Y Parts Not Very Effective for Issues Below 5% of Population D-B-T-F is Probability of Detecting a Problems of Size “X” with “N” Parts on Test Effective For Finding a Few Big-Medium Sized Problems 10% 5% 2% 1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.05% But D-B-T-F is Ineffective For Finding Many Small Problems © 2012 DfR2007 © 2011 - 2010 2004 & ASQ 15
  • 17. Is the Solution Better Faster Reliability Growth Tests like HALT: Better Tests Do Find/Fix Field Some Problems Faster, But is this Enough? 1.00 D But Best in Class 98-99R @SOP E S I G .90 N More Capable .97R => 3% Failures Accelerated Tests by 2nd Model Year C A .80 Enables Faster P Reliability Growth BETTER QRD A (Evolutionary ACHIEVED FASTER B Improvement) I .70 L Implement Over Traditional Reliability I T 6 Years Growth Y .60 / R E L .50 I A 10-15% FASTER PRODUCT B DEVELOPMENT I .40 L I T Y .30 Production Production Production Production Proj. . Alpha HW Beta Proto 1st Yr. 2nd Yr. 3rdt Yr. 4th Yr. Launch Concept (Funct. Dev.) (DV) (PV) Pilot & P-W-F1 P-W-F2 P-W-F3 P-W-F4 Dsgn B-T-F1 B-T-F3 Ramp up Team B-T-F2 © 2012 DfR2007 © 2011 - 2010 2004 & ASQ B-T-F4 16
  • 18. Key PoF Terms and Definitions o Failure Mode: o The EFFECT by which a failure is OBSERVED, PERCEIVED or SENSED. o Failure Mechanism : o The PROCESS (elect., mech., phy., chem. ... etc.) that causes failures. o FAILURE MODE & MECHANISM are NOT Interchangeable Terms in PoF. © 2012 DfR2007 © 2011 - 2010 2004 & ASQ 17
  • 19. Key PoF Terms and Definitions o Failure Site : o The location of potential failures, typically the site of a designed in: o stress concentrator , o design weakness or o material variation or defect. o Knowledge Used to Identify and Prioritized Potential Failure Sites and Risks in New Designs During PoF Design Reviews. © 2012 DfR2007 © 2011 - 2010 2004 & ASQ 18
  • 20. 3 Generic PoF Failure Categories and Their Evaluation/Detection Methods GENERIC FAILURE CATEGORY TYP. FAILURE DETECTION o Errors - Incorrect Operations & Quality Variation Defects/Weaknesses. o Missing parts, incorrect assembly or process. Assurance o Process control errors (Torque, Heat treat). Immediate or o Design errors Latent defects o Missing functions, o Inadequate performance. o Inadequate strength. o Overstress. Performance Overheating. o o Voltage/Current Capability o Electro static discharge. Assessments o Immediate yield, buckling, crack. o Wearout/Changes, via Damage Accumulation. Stress-Life o Friction wear. Durability o Fatigue. o Corrosion. Assessments o Performance changes/parameter drift © 2012 DfR2007 © 2011 - 2010 2004 & ASQ 19
  • 21. Generic Failure Categories Errors and Variation Issues are Everywhere  Errors Broadest Category  Variation  Errors in Design, Manufacturing, Usage & Service.  Fine line between excessive variation & out  Missing knowledge right errors.  Human factor Issues.  Both related to various quality issues.  Manufacturing equipment wear out & failure could be related to maintenance errors.  Weak material could be raw material variation or insufficient heat treat processing errors. Interface Equipment  Equipment process capabilities limitation or operator set up error. Design & Process People Performance Usage Material Environment Noise Factors © 2012 DfR2007 © 2011 - 2010 2004 & ASQ 20
  • 22. Generic Failure Categories Overstress - When Loading Stress Exceed Material Strength STRESS/ STRENGTH Variation of Design’s Material Strengths Typical - Related to Process Capabilities Deterministic (Nominal) Analysis DESIGN MARGIN 4 How well  3 2 SAFETY FACTOR  do you |  Understand 9 | UNRELIABILITY = Probability 9 | & Design 9 3 6 that Load Exceed Strength For % 9 % Strengths t t % t Stress Variation of Usage & & Stresses? i i l i Environments Loads & l l e e Their Interactions e FREQUENCY OF OCCURRENCE © 2012 DfR2007 © 2011 - 2010 2004 & ASQ 21
  • 23. Overview of How Things Age & Wear Out - Stress Driven Damage Accumulation in Materials 3. Strain : Instantaneous changes (materialsstructural) due 2. Stress to loading, different loads The distribution/ interact to contribute to a transmission of single type of strain. loading forces Knowledge of how/ which throughout “Key Loads” act & interact the device. is essential for “efficiently” developing good products, 6. Time to Mean Failure: processes & evaluations. (Damage Accumulation verses Yield Strength 1. Loads A Function of: Stress Intensity, Material Elect. Chem. Properties, & Stress Exposure Cycles/Duration]. Thermal, Mech... 4. Damage 7. Project the Distribution About the Mean Accumulation Individual or combined, from i.e. Rate of Failure (Fall out) (or Stress Aging): A function of variation in; Usage, Device Strength Permanent change environment & & Process Quality Control (i.e. latent defects). degradation retained usage act on materials & 5. Failure Site & Type: after loads are removed. structure. Typically due to a designed in: stress concentrator , From small incremental design weakness, material/process variation or defect. damage, accumulated during periods/cycles of stress exposure. © 2012 DfR2007 © 2011 - 2010 2004 & ASQ 22
  • 24. Generic Failure Categories - Wearout (Damage Accumulation) - Over Time of Stress Exposure STRESS INDUCED STRESS/ DAMAGE STRENGTH ACCUMULATION Design’s Strength Decay/Spreads Over Time / Usage Material Decay Increases UNRELIABILITY OVER TIME 4 How well 3 STRESS   2 EXPOSURE TIME do you | |  or USAGE CYC’S Understand 9 9 | & Design 9 3 6 INITIAL For % 9 UNRELIABILITY Strengths % t t % & Stresses? i i t l i l l e e e FREQUENCY OF OCCURRENCE © 2012 DfR2007 © 2011 - 2010 2004 & ASQ 23
  • 25. Generic Failure Categories Examples of Wear Out Failure Mechanism o Mechanical  Chemical / Contaminate o Fatigue  Moisture Penetration o Creep  Electro-Chemical-Migration Driven o Wear Dendritic Growth. o Electrical  Conductive Filament Format (CFF) o Electro-Migration Driven  Corrosion Molecular Diffusion & Inter Diffusion  Radiation Damage o Thermal Degradation o When Over Stress Issue are Detected. o Verify supplier’s are meeting material strength specs & purity expectation. o Re-evaluate field loading / stress expectation used to design the part. o Sort out stresses, o Combined stress issues are often involved. o Re-evaluate effectiveness of product durability testing © 2012 DfR2007 © 2011 - 2010 2004 & ASQ 24
  • 26. Two Types of Circuit Board Related Vibration Durability Issues o Board in Resonance o Components In Resonance. o Components. Shaken Off/Fatigued o Components Shake/Fatigue themselves apart or by Board Motion. off the Board. o By Flexing Attachment Features o Especially Large, Tall Cantilever Devices 3 Med. Sized Alum CAPS Lead Motion 1 Small Long Leaded Snsr Bending Lead Wires - Flexed Down 1 Hall Effect Sensor. Stressed - Normal Solder 1 Large Coil Assembly Gull Wing I.C. - Flexed up Joint Displacement PC Board  Time to Failure Determine by Intensity/Frequency of Stress Verses Solder Fatigue Life Strength of Material Log (Peak Strain) Steinberg’s Criterion: For a 10 million cycle life, Z < 0.0008995·B/(C·h·r (L1/2)). Ref: Vibration Analysis for Electronic Equipment, by David S. Steinberg Log (Number of Cycles to Failure) © 2012 DfR2007 © 2011 - 2010 2004 & ASQ 25
  • 27. PCB Vibration - 1st, 2nd & 3rd Harmonic Modals 1st Harmonic 2nd Harmonic 3rd Harmonic © 2012 DfR2007 © 2011 - 2010 2004 & ASQ 26
  • 28. PoF Example – E/E Module Vibration Analysis Connector Provides Primary PCB Support CAE Modal Simulation of Circuit Board Flexure Original CAE Guided Redesign Transformer A Large Mass, Adds Back Edge Support will drive a Large Board Displacement (mils) 13.95 1.15 Vibration Modal Natural Frequency (Hz) 89 489 Response Vib. Durability Calculation 25 Days > 50 Years © 2012 DfR2007 © 2011 - 2010 2004 & ASQ 27
  • 29. Module Vibration Durability Simulation Results - For Alternative Board Support & Transformer Locations DAYS TO FAILURE ORIGINAL TRANSFORMER LOCATION TRANSFORMER RELOCATED @ 2 Hrs Vib / Day || R101 + R102 1000M || R825 + R824 100 M 10 M 1M 100,000 3650 Days 10,000 (10 Years) 1000 100 10 1 Edge1 Edge1 & Edge1 & Edge1, Edge1 & All Edges Edge1 Edge1 & Edge1 & Edge1, Edge1 & All Edges (Connector) Corners Middle Corners Edge2 (Connector) Corners Middle Corners Edge2 & Middle, & Middle, || + || + || + || + || + || + || + || + || + || + || + || + || + || + || + || + || + || + || + || + || + || + || + || + © 2012 DfR2007 © 2011 - 2010 2004 & ASQ 28
  • 30. Generic Failure Categories - Shock o Animated Simulation Visualizes Transition of the Shock Wave Through the Structure of the Module. o Peak Stresses, Material Strain, Motions & Displacements Can be Identified. o Potential Failure Sites Where Local Stresses Exceed Material Strength Can Be Identified & Prioritized. o Zoom In On Surface Such as Potential for Snap Lock Fastener Release o Wire Frame View Allows Xray Vision of Internal Features. © 2012 DfR2007 © 2011 - 2010 2004 & ASQ 29
  • 31. Solder Thermo-Mechanical Shearing Fatigue Driven by: Coefficient of Thermal Expansion/Contraction (CTE) Mismatch During Thermal Cycling o As a circuit board and its components expand and contract at different rates the differential strain between them is absorbed by the attachment system leads and solder joints which drives metal fatigue. Coef. Of Thermal Exp. (PPM/°C) • Chip Resistor Body: 4-5 ppm/°C • PCB - FR4 x-y axis: 14-17 ppm/°C FR4 z axis: 120-160 ppm/°C © 2012 DfR2007 © 2011 - 2010 2004 & ASQ 30
  • 32. Correlation Between: Stress Driven Damage Accumulation in Materials and Life Consumption Rates o Material N-S Curve (Number of Life Cycle at a Stress Level) (Transposed S-N) . High Useful Acceleration Range (log) Number of Foolish Failure Region Cycles INVALID TEST REGION Low Stress ~ Near “Infinite” Low Life Region Low Stress (log) High o Stress - Strain Yield Curve. Plastic Region Excessive Plastic High Deformation STRESS (psi) Instantaneous or Near Instantaneous Low Ultimate Strength or Elastic Region Fracture Point Low STRAIN in/in High o Lowering the Stress in Material & Members Increases Life &Reliability © 2012 DfR2007 © 2011 - 2010 2004 & ASQ 31
  • 33. Solder Fatigue Life is Directly Related to Component Packaging & Solder Attachment Scheme Generally the IC Package Influences QRD more than the IC itself. Single Sided Then Thru-hole 1st Generation Quad Surface Mount 2nd Generation Quad Surface Mount DIP Integrated Circuits J Lead PLCC, 1982 - Today Fine Pitch Gull Wing I.C, 1993 - Today 1970 ‘s- Today ~6 Up to 160 I/O, 1.5 in sq., ~54 Up to 450 I/O, 1.75 in sq ~4 up to 68 I/O, 1” x 3.5” Up to 100 Meg Hz Speeds Up to 250 Meg Hz Speeds Up to 10 Meg Hz Speeds. Source of Many Reliability Problems. >10 Time the Life of J Lead in Auto ECMs. Bump & Ball Grid Arrays No Lead Chip Scale Packaging (NLCSP) Leadless Attachments (LCCC, QFN, DFN, SON, LGA) 1996 - Today 2002 - Today ~24 - 1000 I/O 1.2 in. sq ~8 - 480 I/O, .75 in SQ 500+ 1000 Meg Hz Speeds. Gigi Hz Speeds Life Varies Greatly w/Size & Conf. Can have significantly reduces life © 2012 DfR2007 © 2011 - 2010 2004 & ASQ 32
  • 34. Comparison of Through Hole Component Attachment Schemes - Impact of Structural Configuration & Size on Fatigue Durability Package I.C. Die & Die Attachment Wire Bond Lead Frame Lead @ Cold Lead @ Cold Single Sided Solder Joint Lead @ Hot Double Sided (PTH) Joints Allow Leads to Wiggle are 35- 55 TIMES Stronger Under Vib., Shock & Lead is constrained Thermal Exp/Contraction So the Rate of Fatigue the Joint Fatigues Faster DIP - Thru-hole Stress Aging is Much Slower Automotive Fatigue Life Automotive Fatigue Life Single Sided 2-5 Yrs Single Sided >10 Yrs o Since Electrical Engineers Design Most Circuit Boards, o The motivation to accepted the added costs of Plated Through Hole (PTHs) was when increasing component required placing component and traces on both sides of the circuits board. o THE RELIABILITY OF EE MODULES SKY ROCKETED with the use of more complex Double Sides PCB. o Thus More Complexity DOES NOT ALWAYS HAVE TO RESULT IN LESS RELIABILITY. A More Capable or Smarter Design Approach Can Overcome the Inherent QRD Risks of Increased Complexity © 2012 DfR2007 © 2011 - 2010 2004 & ASQ 33
  • 35. Comparison of Leaded Surface Mount Attachment Schemes - Impact of Structural Configuration & Size on Fatigue Durability S. M. Pad & Solder Joint Surface Mount Devices with Gull Wing Fine Pitch Leads J lead - Surface Mount Devices Are Designed as an Articulated Spring, - Thermal Exp/Contraction Their Leads Flex at Two Bend Points Cause Rapid Fatigue Due To Lead Rocking Instead of Transmitting Stress to the Weaker Solder Similar Sized GWFP Devices Avg. 10x the Durability Life of J Leaded Parts in the Same Thermal Cycling Tests. The Cost – GLFP Devices Take Up More Board Areas So Larger Boards May Be Require to Hold the Same Number of Components © 2012 DfR2007 © 2011 - 2010 2004 & ASQ 34
  • 36. PoF Thermal Cycling Solder Fatigue Model (Modified Engelmaier – Leadless Device) o Modified Engelmaier LD o Semi-empirical analytical approach Dg  C DaDT o Energy based fatigue hs o Determine the strain range (Dg) o Where: C is a function of activation energy, temperature and dwell time, LD is diagonal distance, a is CTE, DT of temperature cycle & h is solder joint height Determine the shear  LD LD hc  2    a 2  a1  DT  LD  F        hs o   force applied at the  9G a   solder joint  E1 A1 E2 A2 AsGs AcGc  b   o Where: F is shear force, LD is length, E is elastic modulus, A is the area, h is thickness, G is shear modulus, and a is edge length of bond pad. o Subscripts: 1 is component, 2 is board, s is solder joint, c is bond pad, and b is board o Takes into consideration foundation stiffness and both shear and axial loads (Models of Leaded Components factor in lead stiffness / compliancy) Determine the strain energy F o DW  0.5  Dg  dissipated in the solder joint As Calculate N50 cycles-to-failure using: N f  0.0019  DW  o 1 o An Energy Based model for SnPb N f  0.0006061  DW  1 o The Syed-Amkor model for SAC © 2012 DfR2007 © 2011 - 2010 2004 & ASQ 35
  • 37. Originally Stress Analysis and PoF Modeling was a Time Consuming Process Requiring an Expert to Create a Custom Finite Element Analysis of Individual Issues © 2012 DfR2007 © 2011 - 2010 2004 & ASQ 36
  • 38. PoF CAE Thermal Cycling Simulation - Reveals Issues That Could Never Be Seen or Measured in a Physical Test BGA IC CTE = 10 PPM/°C Sheering Simulated Strain in Thermal Solder Balls Cycle of 0 to +100°C Circuit Board CTE = 15 PPM/°C View of the outer edge balls with motion originating from the neutral center of the Quad BGA IC. © 2012 DfR2007 © 2011 - 2010 2004 & ASQ 37
  • 39. PoF Durability/Reliability Risk Assessments PCB Plated Through Hole (PTH) Via Fatigue Analysis o When a PCB experiences thermal cycling the expansion/ contraction in the z-direction is much higher than that in the x-y plane. o The glass fibers constrain the board in the x-y plane but not through the thickness. o As a result, a great deal of stress can be built up in the copper via barrels resulting in eventual cracking near the center of the barrel as shown in the cross section photos. © 2012 DfR2007 © 2011 - 2010 2004 & ASQ 38
  • 40. Plated Through Hole Via Barrel Cracking Fatigue Life Based On IPC TR-579 o Determine applied stress applied (σ) o Determine strain range (∆ε) o Apply calibration constants o Strain distribution factor, Kd(2.5 –5.0) o PTH & Cu quality factor KQ(0 –10) o Iteratively calculate cycles-to-failure (Nf50) © 2012 DfR2007 © 2011 - 2010 2004 & ASQ 39
  • 41. Through PoF Research Durability/Reliability Simulations for Virtual Reliability Growth of Electronics are Now Possible Start Build & Program Model(s) Integrated with PoF/PoS Validate into Standalone Simple for Into a Mechanism PoF / PoS Complex FEA Sophisticated Knowledge Math Models Math Data Tools CAE Tool. Add in Statistical Account for Operational Tools for Variation Loading Drift © 2012 DfR2007 © 2011 - 2010 2004 & ASQ 40
  • 42. PoF Knowledge Enables A New Product Development Process Math to Hardware MATH TO HARDWARE A) Durability / Reliability Simulations – “A” Analysis o Evaluate Durability Capability and o Identify Specific Reliability Risks o While Still on the CAD Screen B) First Article Evaluation via Direct Quality Assessments – “D” Development o Verify PCB Fabrication and Assembly Quality Meets Design Requirement o Before Starting Stress Life Testing C) Refocused Physical Durability Testing – “V” Validation w/Simulation Aided Accelerated Testing o Refocused from a Discover Process to a Final Conformation Procedure © 2012 DfR2007 © 2011 - 2010 2004 & ASQ 41
  • 43. The Auto Industry Has Reaped Significant PDP & QRD Benefits Through Math Based, Virtual, Computer Aided Engineering Tools Safety Vehicle Structure Energy A Result of Initiatives to: Migrate Evaluations Performance Integration from Road Thermal Vehicle Dynamics to Lab to Computer, at the Vehicle, Aerodynamics Noise & Vibration Subsystem & Component Durability Level © 2012 DfR2007 © 2011 - 2010 2004 & ASQ 42
  • 44. A CAE Software Programs are now Commercially Available to Automate CAE PoF Model Creation and Analysis 1) Design Capture – Utilize standard CAD/CAM Circuit Board design files to create a virtual model 2) Life-Cycle Characterization - define the reliability/durability objectives and expected environmental & usage conditions (Field or Test) under which the device is required to operate 3) Load Transformation – automated FEA creation and calculations that translates and distributes the environmental and operational loads into the stresses across a circuit board to each individual parts 4) PoF Durability Simulation/Reliability Analysis & Risk Assessment – Performs a design and application specific durability simulation to calculates detail life expectations, reliability distributions over a life tine line & prioritizes risks by applying PoF algorithms. © 2012 DfR2007 © 2011 - 2010 2004 & ASQ 43
  • 45. 1) Semi Automated Design Capture From CAD/CAM files to create a CAE Virtual Model of a Product Design. o Creates CAE virtual model from standard circuit board CAD/CAM design files (Gerber or ODB Format) © 2012 DfR2007 © 2011 - 2010 2004 & ASQ 44
  • 46. 2) Define Test or Field Environment and Usage Profiles o Define simple or complex environmental or test stress profiles © 2012 DfR2007 © 2011 - 2010 2004 & ASQ 45
  • 47. 3) Load Transformation in to Stresses - Automated FEA Mesh Creation and Calculation of Stress/Strain Distribution Across the Device and at Each Component o Days of FEA modeling and calculations, executed in minutes o Without a FEA modeling expert. Finite Element Mesh 1st Natural Frequency 3rd Natural Frequency 2nd Natural Frequency © 2012 DfR2007 © 2011 - 2010 2004 & ASQ 46
  • 48. 4) Stress/Strain Results Become Inputs to PoF Durability/ Reliability Damage Models To Calculate and Tally Durability Life Curve for Each Component & Each Failure Mechanism Parts With Low Fatigue Endurance Found In Initial Design ~84% Failure Projection Within Service Life, Starting at ~3.8 years. o N50 fatigue life calculated for each of 705 components (68 part types), of a Safety Critical Avionics Module with risk color coding, prioritized risk listing and life distribution plots based on known part type failure distributions (analysis performed in <30 secs after model created). o Red - Significant portion of failure distribution within service life or test duration. o Yellow - lesser portion of failure distribution within service life or test duration. o Green - Failure distribution well beyond service life or test duration. (Note: N50 (i.e. Mean) life - # of thermal cycles where fatigue of 50% of the parts are expected to fail) © 2012 DfR2007 © 2011 - 2010 2004 & ASQ 47
  • 49. 5) PoF Durability Simulations/Reliability Risk Assessment Enables Virtual Reliability Growth o Identification of specific reliability/durability limits or deficiencies, of specific parts in, specific applications, enables the module design to be revised with more suitable/more robust parts capable of meeting reliability/durability objectives. o Reliability plot of the same project after fatigue susceptible parts replaced with electrically equivalent parts in component packages suitable for the application. o Life time failure risks reduced from ~84% to ~1.5% © 2012 DfR2007 © 2011 - 2010 2004 & ASQ 48
  • 50. 5) PoF Durability Simulations/Reliability Risk Life Curves for Each Failure Mechanism Tallied to Produce a Combined Life Curve for the Entire Module. Over All Module Combined Failure Rate Thermal Vibration Cycling Fatigue Solder Wear Out Fatigue Wear Out PTH Thermal Cycling Fatigue Wear Out Constant Failure Rate Generic Actuarial MTBF Database o Detailed Design and Application Specific PoF Life Curves are Far More Useful that a simple single point MTBF (Mean Time Between Failure) estimate. © 2012 DfR2007 © 2011 - 2010 2004 & ASQ 49
  • 51. The Efficiency Improvements of a PoF Knowledge & Analysis Based Product Development Process D .99R => 1% Failures E 1.00 Simulation Based PDP S Enables Dramatic I “Revolutionary” Improvement G in Growth Rate N .90 BETTER QRD C ACHIEVED FASTER A P .80 A Traditional Reliability B Growth I L .70 I More Capable Accelerated Tests T Enables Faster Reliability Growth Y (Evolutionary Improvement) / .60 R E L I .50 A FASTER PRODUCT B DEVELOPMENT I L = LOWER COSTS .40 I T Y .30 Alpha HW Production Production Production Production Proj. . Proto Launch (Funct. Dev.) 1st Yr. 2nd Yr. 3rdt Yr. 4th Yr. Concept (PV) Dsgn B-T-F1 Beta B-T-F3 Pilot & P-W-F1 P-W-F2 P-W-F3 P-W-F4 Team (DV) Ramp © 2012 DfR2007 © 2011 - 2010 2004 & ASQ Start B-T-F2 up 50 50
  • 52. Summary - Physics of Failure/Reliability Physics is Reliability Science for the Next Generation o PoF Science based Virtual Validation Durability Simulation/ Reliability Assessments Tools Enable Virtual Reliability Growth that is: o Faster and Cheaper than Traditional Physical Design, Build, Test and Fix Testing. o Determines if a Specific Design is Theoretically Capable of Enduring Intended Environmental and Usage Conditions. o “Stress Analysis” Followed by “Material Degradation/Damage Modeling” o Compatible with the way modern products are designed and engineered (i.e CAD/CAE/CAM). o Semi Automated PoF CAE Tools Enables Rapid, Low Cost Analysis Without a Highly Trained CAE/PoF expert. o Produces Significant Improvement In Accelerated Fielding of High QRD Products © 2012 DfR2007 © 2011 - 2010 2004 & ASQ 51
  • 53. Want to Know More – Suggested Reading © 2012 DfR2007 © 2011 - 2010 2004 & ASQ 52
  • 54. Questions & Discussion © 2012 DfR2007 © 2011 - 2010 2004 & ASQ 53
  • 55. Follow Up o To Learn More about Physics of Failure Durability Simulation / Reliability Assessment Tools, o To Request a PDF Copy of the Presentation Slides o Contact: jmcleish@dfrsolutions.com , or askdfr@dfrsolutions.com 301-474-0607 o Thank You for Attending. © 2012 DfR2007 © 2011 - 2010 2004 & ASQ 54