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THE WORKING GROUP II
CONTRIBUTION TO THE IPCC'S
FIFTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Aromar Revi
IPCC Coordinating Lead Author
Ch 8: Urban Areas
arevi@iihs.co.in
@AromarRevi
What is the IPCC?
• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) is the international body for
assessing the science related to climate change.
It currently has 195 members.
• IPCC assessments provide a scientific basis for
governments at all levels to develop climate
related policies, and they underlie negotiations
at the UN Climate Conference – the United
NationsFramework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC).
AR5: Working Group II: Highlights
• Scoping meeting to outline 30 chapters
• 1217 author nominations from 92 countries
• 60 Coordinating Lead Authors, 183 Lead Authors &
66 Review Editors from 70 countries & 436
Contributing authors from 54 countries
• Over 12,000 scientific references cited
• 1729 expert reviewers from 84 countries and 49
governments provided over 50,000 comments
CLIMATE CHANGE 2014:
IMPACTS, ADAPTATION, AND VULNERABILITY
Working Group II AR5 report: Objectives
• Objectives of the WGII AR5: Climate Change 2014: Impacts,
Adaptation,and Vulnerability report are to consider the:
• Vulnerability & exposure of human & natural systems
• Observed impacts & future risks of climate change
• Potential for and limits to adaptation
What is the Working Group II report about?
• The chapters of the report assess risks &
opportunities for societies, economies, and
ecosystems around the world.
• The 30-chapter report is divided into two
volumes:
– Volume I focuses on global and sectoral
aspects.
– Volume II chapters provide assessments on
regions
What is new in this Report?
• 10 new chapters added in WGII AR5 to cover
additional relevant topics
– Needs, options,experience in planning and
implementation, opportunities, constraints, limits,
and economics of adaptation.
– Livelihoods and poverty, human security, urban and
rural areas have been added to cover socio-
economic, cultural, and regional planning aspects
– Oceans have been more extensively covered in two
new chapters.
IPCC Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability: Summary for Policymakers
SOCIOECONOMIC
PROCESSES
Socioeconomic
Pathways
Adaptation and
Mitigation
Actions
Governance
CLIMATE
Natural
Variability
Anthropogenic
Climate Change
RISKHazards
Exposure
Vulnerability
IMPACTS
EMISSIONS
and Land-use Change
Core framing as a challenge in managing risks
Key Risks across Sectors and Regions
• Increasing magnitudes of warming increase the
likelihood of severe, pervasive, and irreversible
impacts.
• The overall risks of climate change impacts can
be reduced by limiting the rate and magnitude of
climate change.
• Risks are reduced substantially under the
assessed scenario with the lowest temperature
projections (RCP2.6 – low emissions) compared
to the highest temperature projections (RCP8.5 –
high emissions), particularly in the second half of
the 21st century (very high confidence).
Key Risks across Sectors and Regions I
1. Risk of death, injury, ill-health, or disrupted livelihoods in
low-lying coastal zones and small island developing
states and other small islands, due to storm surges,
coastal flooding, and sea-level rise.34 [RFC 1-5]
2. Risk of severe ill-health and disrupted livelihoods for large
urban populations due to inland flooding in some
regions.35 [RFC 2 and 3]
3. Systemic risks due to extreme weather events leading to
breakdown of infrastructure networks and critical services
such as electricity, water supply, and health and
emergency services.36 [RFC 2-4]
Key Risks across Sectors and Regions II
4. Risk of mortality and morbidity during periods of extreme
heat, particularly for vulnerable urban populations and
those working outdoors in urban or rural areas.37 [RFC 2
and 3]
5. Risk of food insecurity and the breakdown of food
systems linked to warming, drought, flooding, and
precipitation variability and extremes, particularly for
poorer populations in urban and rural settings.38 [RFC 2-
4]
6. Risk of loss of rural livelihoods and income due to
insufficient access to drinking and irrigation water and
reduced agricultural productivity, particularly for farmers
and pastoralists with minimal capital in semi-arid
regions.39 [RFC 2 and 3]
Key Risks across Sectors and Regions II
7. Risk of loss of marine and coastal ecosystems,
biodiversity, and the ecosystem goods, functions,
and services they provide for coastal livelihoods,
especially for fishing communities in the tropics
and the Arctic.40 [RFC 1, 2, and 4]
8. Risk of loss of terrestrial and inland water
ecosystems, biodiversity, and the ecosystem
goods, functions, and services they provide for
livelihoods.41 [RFC 1, 3, and 4]
Characterizing risks
Key Risks in Asia
A CHANGING WORLD
WIDESPREAD
OBSERVED IMPACTS
Observed Impacts, Vulnerability, and Exposure - I
• In recent decades, changes in climate have caused
impacts on natural and human systems on all continents
and across the oceans.
• In many regions, changing precipitation or melting snow
and ice are altering hydrological systems, affecting water
resources in terms of quantity and quality (medium
confidence).
• Many terrestrial, freshwater, and marine species have
shifted their geographic ranges, seasonal activities,
migration patterns, abundances, and species interactions
in response to nongoing climate change. (high
confidence).
Observed Impacts, Vulnerability, and Exposure - II
• Based on many studies covering a wide range of regions
and crops, negative impacts of climate change on crop
yields have been more common than positive impacts
(high confidence).
• At present the world-wide burden of human ill-health from
climate change is relatively small compared with effects of
other stressors and is not well quantified. (medium
confidence).
• Differences in vulnerability and exposure arise from non-
climatic factors and from multidimensional inequalities
often produced by uneven development processes (very
high confidence). These differences shape differential
risks from climate change.
Observed Impacts, Vulnerability, and Exposure - III
• Impacts from recent climate-related extremes, such as
heat waves, droughts, floods, cyclones, and wildfires,
reveal significant vulnerability and exposure of some
ecosystems and many human systems to current climate
variability (very high confidence).
• Climate-related hazards exacerbate other stressors, often
with negative outcomes for livelihoods, especially for
people living in poverty (high confidence).
• Violent conflict increases vulnerability to climate change
(medium evidence, high agreement).
IPCC Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability: Summary for Policymakers
A CHANGING WORLD
WIDESPREAD
OBSERVED IMPACTS
r
Risk Level with
Current Adaptation
Potential for
Additional
Adaptation to
Reduce Risk
Risk Level with
High Adaptation
Risk-Level
Very
Low Med
Very
High
4°C
2°C
Present
Long Term
(2080-2100
Near Term (2030-2040
Risks for Low-Lying
Coastal Areas
Loss of Livelihoods,
Settlements,
Infrastructure,
Ecosystem Services,
and Economic
Stability
SMALL ISLANDS
Compounded Stress
on Water Resources
Reduced Crop Productivity
and Livelihood and Food Security
Vector- and Water-
Borne Diseases
AFRICA
ASIA
Increased Flood
Damage to
Infrastructure ,
Livelihoods,
and Settlements
Heat-Related
Human Mortality
Increased Drought-
Related Water and
Food Shortage
Increased Losses and
Impacts from Extreme
Heat Events
Increased Flood Losses and Impacts EUROPE
Increased Water Restrictions
Increased Flood Damage
to Infrastructure and
Settlements
Increased Risks
to Coastal
Infrastructure
and Low-Lying
Ecosystems
AUSTRALASIA
Significant Change in
Composition and Structure
of Coral Reef Systems
Increased Risks
from Wildfires
Heat-Related
Human Mortality
Damages from River
and Coastal Urban Floods
NORTH AMERICA
Reduced Water
Availability and
Increased Flooding and
Landslides
Reduced Food
Production and Quality
CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA
Vector-Borne Diseases
Reduced Fisheries
Catch Potential
at Low Latitudes
Increased Mass Coral
Bleaching and Mortality
Coastal Inundation
and Habitat Loss
THE OCEAN
Unprecedented Challenges,
Especially from Rate of Change
Risks for
Ecosystems
POLAR REGIONS Risks for Health
and Well-Being
THE LIKELIHOOD OF
INCREASING MAGNITUDES
OF WARMING INCREASE
SEVERE AND
PERVASIVE IMPACTS
Reasons for Concern I
• Unique and threatened systems: Some unique
and threatened systems, including ecosystems
and cultures, are already at risk from climate
change (high confidence)
• Extreme weather events: Climate-change-
related risks from extreme events, such as heat
waves, extreme precipitation, and coastal
flooding, are already moderate (high confidence)
Reasons for Concern II
• Distribution of impacts: Risks are unevenly
distributed and are generally greater for
disadvantaged people and communities in countries
at all levels of development. Risks are already
moderate because of regionally differentiated
climate-change impacts on crop production in
particular (medium to high confidence)
• Global aggregate impacts: Risks of global
aggregate impacts are moderate for additional
warming between 1-2°C, reflecting impacts to both
Earth’s biodiversity and the overall global economy
(medium confidence).
Reasons for Concern III
• Large-scale singular events: With increasing
warming, some physical systems or ecosystems
may be at risk of abrupt and irreversible changes.
Risks associated with such tipping points become
moderate between 0-1°C additional warming, due
to early warning signs that both warm-water coral
reef and Arctic ecosystems are already
experiencing irreversible regime shifts (medium
confidence).
IPCC Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability: Summary for Policymakers
AROUND THE WORLD
VULNERABILITY
AND EXPOSURE
Freshwater resources
• Freshwater-related risks of climate change increase
significantly with increasing greenhouse gas
concentrations (robust evidence, high agreement).All
aspects of food security are potentially affected by
climate change, including food access, utilization, and
price stability (high confidence).
• Climate change over the 21st century is projected to
reduce renewable surface water and groundwater
resources significantly in most dry subtropical regions
(robust evidence, high agreement), intensifying
competition for water among sectors (limited
evidence, medium agreement).
Terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems
• A large fraction of both terrestrial and freshwater species faces
increased extinction risk under projected climate change during
and beyond the 21st century, especially as climate change
interacts with other stressors, such as habitat modification,
over-exploitation, pollution, and invasive species (high
confidence).
• Within this century, magnitudes and rates of climate change
associated with medium- to high-emission scenarios (RCP4.5,
6.0, and 8.5) pose high risk of abrupt and irreversible regional-
scale change in the composition, structure, and function of
terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, including wetlands
(medium confidence).
0
AVERAGE CLIMATE
VELOCITY 2050-2090
Plant-feeding
Insects
Primates
Carnivorous
Mammals
Split-hoofed
Mammals
Trees
Herbaceous
Plants
Rodents
Freshwater
Mollusks
10080604020
RCP2.6
Flat Areas
and
Global
Average
RCP8.5
Global Average
RCP4.5
Flat Areas
RCP6.0
Flat Areas
RCP8.5
Flat Areas
Upper Bound
Median
Lower Bound
MAXIMUM SPEED AT WHICH SPECIES CAN MOVE
(km per decade)
Coastal systems and low-lying areas
• Due to sea-level rise projected throughout the 21st
century and beyond, coastal systems and low-lying
areas will increasingly experience adverse impacts
such as submergence, coastal flooding, and coastal
erosion (very high confidence).
Marine systems
• Due to projected climate change by the mid 21st century and
beyond, global marine-species redistribution and marine-
biodiversity reduction in sensitive regions will challenge the
sustained provision of fisheries productivity and other
ecosystem services (high confidence).
• For medium- to high-emission scenarios (RCP4.5, 6.0, and 8.5),
ocean acidification poses substantial risks to marine
ecosystems, especially polar ecosystems and coral reefs,
associated with impacts on the physiology, behavior, and
population dynamics of individual species from phytoplankton
to animals (medium to high confidence).
CHANGE IN MAXIMUM CATCH POTENTIAL (2051-2060 COMPARED TO 2001-2010, SRES A1B)
CHANGE IN pH (2081-2100 COMPARED TO 1986-2005, RCP 8.5)
-0.60 -0.55 -0.50 -0.45 -0.40 -0.35 -0.30 -0.25 -0.20 -0.15 -0.10 -0.05
<50% -21 – 50% -6 – 20% -1 – 5% No data 0 – 4% 5 – 19% 20 – 49% 50 – 100% >100%
CRUSTACEANS
SPECIES(%)
MOLLUSK
0
20
40
60
80
100
40 16 15 31 29
Positive
Effect
No Effect
Negative
Effect
Mollusk and
Crustacean Fisheries
Present-day annual catch
rate ≥0.005 tonnes km2
Cold-Water Corals
Warm-Water Corals
0
20
40
60
80
100
37 4 9 18 23
COLD-WATER CORALS
0
20
40
60
80
100
7 2 7 5 3
WARM-WATER CORALS
0
20
40
60
80
100
26 9 15 23 20
CHANGE IN MAXIMUM CATCH POTENTIAL (2051-2060 COMPARED TO 2001-2010, SRES A1B)
<50% -21 – 50% -6 – 20% -1 – 5% No data 0 – 4% 5 – 19% 20 – 49% 50 – 100% >100%
CLIMATE CHANGE
REDUCING AND
MANAGING RISKS
Food security and food production systems
• For the major crops (wheat, rice, and maize) in
tropical and temperate regions, climate change
without adaptation is projected to negatively
impact production for local temperature increases
of 2°C or more above late-20th-century levels,
although individual locations may benefit (medium
confidence).
• All aspects of food security are potentially affected
by climate change, including food access,
utilization, and price stability (high confidence).
Crop Yield Impact
Human health
• Until mid-century, projected climate change will
impact human health mainly by exacerbating
health problems that already exist (very high
confidence).
• Throughout the 21st century, climate change is
expected to lead to increases in ill-health in many
regions and especially in developing countries
with low income, as compared to a baseline
without climate change (high confidence).
Key economic sectors and services
• For most economic sectors, the impacts of drivers such as
changes in population, age structure, income, technology,
relative prices, lifestyle, regulation, and governance are
projected to be large relative to the impacts of climate
change (medium evidence, high agreement).
• Global economic impacts from climate change are difficult
to estimate.
• With these recognized limitations, the incomplete
estimates of global annual economic losses for additional
temperature increases of ~2°C are between 0.2 and 2.0%
of income (±1 standard deviation around the mean)
(medium evidence, medium agreement).
AROUND THE WORLD
VULNERABILITY
AND EXPOSURE
Adaptation in Urban Areas I
• Many global risks of climate change are concentrated in
urban areas (medium confidence).
• Steps that build resilience and enable sustainable
development can accelerate successful climate-change
adaptation globally.
• Heat stress, extreme precipitation, inland and coastal
flooding, landslides, air pollution, drought, and water
scarcity pose risks in urban areas for people, assets,
economies, and ecosystems (very high confidence).
• Risks are amplified for those lacking essential
infrastructure and services or living in poor-quality housing
and exposed areas.
Adaptation in Urban Areas II
• Reducing basic service deficits, improving housing, and
building resilient infrastructure systems could significantly
reduce vulnerability and exposure in urban areas.
• Urban adaptation benefits from effective multi-level urban
risk governance, alignment of policies and incentives,
strengthened local government and community adaptation
capacity, synergies with the private sector, and
appropriate financing and institutional development
(medium confidence).
• Increased capacity, voice, and influence of low-income
groups and vulnerable communities and their partnerships
with local governments also benefit adaptation
Large Urban Centres in 1950
Large Urban Centres in 2025
Large Urban Centres in South & Southeast Asia (2025)
Large Urban Centres (2010) with Observed Climate Change Trends (1901-2012)
Large Urban Centres (2025) with Project Climate (mid-century RCP 2.6 )
Large Urban Centres (2025) with Project Climate (mid-century RCP 8.5 )
Climate change: Key Risks to London (present, near-term & long-term) - I
Climate change: Key Risks to London (present, near-term & long-term) - II
Adaptation in Rural Areas
• Major future rural impacts are expected in the near-term
and beyond through impacts on water availability and
supply, food security, and agricultural incomes, including
shifts in production areas of food and non-food crops
across the world (high confidence).
• These impacts are expected to disproportionately affect
the welfare of the poor in rural areas, such as female-
headed households and those with limited access to land,
modern agricultural inputs, infrastructure, and education.
• Further adaptations for agriculture, water, forestry, and
biodiversity can occur through policies taking account of
rural decision-making contexts.
Livelihoods and poverty
• Throughout the 21st century, climate-
change impacts are projected to slow down
economic growth, make poverty reduction
more difficult, further erode food security,
and prolong existing and create new
poverty traps, the latter particularly in urban
areas and emerging hotspots of hunger
(medium confidence).
Human security
• Climate change over the 21st century is projected
to increase displacement of people (medium
evidence, high agreement).
• Climate change can indirectly increase risks of
violent conflicts in the form of civil war and inter-
group violence by amplifying well-documented
drivers of these conflicts such as poverty and
economic shocks (medium confidence).
• The impacts of climate change on the critical
infrastructure and territorial integrity of many
states are expected to influence national security
policies (medium evidence)
WITH CONTINUED
HIGH EMISSIONS
INCREASE
RISKS OF
CLIMATE CHANGE
ALREADY OCCURING
ADAPTATION IS
Adaptation Experience
• Adaptation is becoming embedded in some planning
processes, with more limited implementation of
responses (high confidence).
• Adaptation experience is accumulating across regions
in the public and private sector and within
communities (high confidence).
• Governments at various levels are starting to develop
adaptation plans and policies and to integrate climate-
change considerations into broader development
plans.
The Decision-making Context
• Responding to climate-related risks involves decision-making in
a changing world, with continuing uncertainty about the
severity and timing of climate-change impacts and with limits to
the effectiveness of adaptation (high confidence)
• Adaptation and mitigation choices in the near-term will affect
the risks of climate change throughout the 21st century (high
confidence).
• Uncertainties about future vulnerability, exposure & responses
of interlinked human and natural systems are large (high
confidence).
• This motivates exploration of a wide range of socioeconomic
futures in assessments of risks.
Climate Resilient Pathways
Climate-resilient Pathways and Transformation
• Prospects for climate-resilient pathways for
sustainable development are related fundamentally to
what the world accomplishes with climate-change
mitigation (high confidence).
• Greater rates and magnitude of climate change
increase the likelihood of exceeding adaptation limits
(high confidence).
• Transformations in economic, social, technological,
and political decisions and actions can enable climate-
resilient pathways (high confidence).
Principles for Effective Adaptation I
• Adaptation is place and context specific, with no single
approach for reducing risks appropriate across all
settings (high confidence).
• Adaptation planning and implementation can be
enhanced through complementary actions across
levels, from individuals to governments (high
confidence).
• A first step towards adaptation to future climate
change is reducing vulnerability and exposure to
present climate variability (high confidence).
Principles for Effective Adaptation II
• Adaptation planning and implementation at all levels of
governance are contingent on societal values, objectives, and
risk perceptions (high confidence). Recognition of diverse
interests, circumstances, social-cultural contexts, and
expectations can benefit decision making processes.
• Decision support is most effective when it is sensitive to context
and the diversity of decision types, decision processes, and
constituencies (robust evidence, high agreement).
• Existing and emerging economic instruments can foster
adaptation by providing incentives for anticipating and reducing
impacts (medium confidence).
Principles for Effective Adaptation III
• Poor planning, overemphasizing short-term outcomes, or failing
to sufficiently anticipate consequences can result in
maladaptation (medium evidence, high agreement).
• Limited evidence indicates a gap between global adaptation
needs and the funds available for adaptation (medium
confidence).
• Significant co-benefits, synergies, and tradeoffs exist between
mitigation and adaptation and among different adaptation
responses; interactions occur both within and across regions
(very high confidence).
EFFECTIVE CLIMATE
CHANGE ADAPTATION
A MORE VIBRANT WORLD

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IPCC Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability: Summary for Policymakers

  • 1. THE WORKING GROUP II CONTRIBUTION TO THE IPCC'S FIFTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Aromar Revi IPCC Coordinating Lead Author Ch 8: Urban Areas arevi@iihs.co.in @AromarRevi
  • 2. What is the IPCC? • The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the international body for assessing the science related to climate change. It currently has 195 members. • IPCC assessments provide a scientific basis for governments at all levels to develop climate related policies, and they underlie negotiations at the UN Climate Conference – the United NationsFramework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
  • 3. AR5: Working Group II: Highlights • Scoping meeting to outline 30 chapters • 1217 author nominations from 92 countries • 60 Coordinating Lead Authors, 183 Lead Authors & 66 Review Editors from 70 countries & 436 Contributing authors from 54 countries • Over 12,000 scientific references cited • 1729 expert reviewers from 84 countries and 49 governments provided over 50,000 comments
  • 4. CLIMATE CHANGE 2014: IMPACTS, ADAPTATION, AND VULNERABILITY
  • 5. Working Group II AR5 report: Objectives • Objectives of the WGII AR5: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation,and Vulnerability report are to consider the: • Vulnerability & exposure of human & natural systems • Observed impacts & future risks of climate change • Potential for and limits to adaptation
  • 6. What is the Working Group II report about? • The chapters of the report assess risks & opportunities for societies, economies, and ecosystems around the world. • The 30-chapter report is divided into two volumes: – Volume I focuses on global and sectoral aspects. – Volume II chapters provide assessments on regions
  • 7. What is new in this Report? • 10 new chapters added in WGII AR5 to cover additional relevant topics – Needs, options,experience in planning and implementation, opportunities, constraints, limits, and economics of adaptation. – Livelihoods and poverty, human security, urban and rural areas have been added to cover socio- economic, cultural, and regional planning aspects – Oceans have been more extensively covered in two new chapters.
  • 10. Key Risks across Sectors and Regions • Increasing magnitudes of warming increase the likelihood of severe, pervasive, and irreversible impacts. • The overall risks of climate change impacts can be reduced by limiting the rate and magnitude of climate change. • Risks are reduced substantially under the assessed scenario with the lowest temperature projections (RCP2.6 – low emissions) compared to the highest temperature projections (RCP8.5 – high emissions), particularly in the second half of the 21st century (very high confidence).
  • 11. Key Risks across Sectors and Regions I 1. Risk of death, injury, ill-health, or disrupted livelihoods in low-lying coastal zones and small island developing states and other small islands, due to storm surges, coastal flooding, and sea-level rise.34 [RFC 1-5] 2. Risk of severe ill-health and disrupted livelihoods for large urban populations due to inland flooding in some regions.35 [RFC 2 and 3] 3. Systemic risks due to extreme weather events leading to breakdown of infrastructure networks and critical services such as electricity, water supply, and health and emergency services.36 [RFC 2-4]
  • 12. Key Risks across Sectors and Regions II 4. Risk of mortality and morbidity during periods of extreme heat, particularly for vulnerable urban populations and those working outdoors in urban or rural areas.37 [RFC 2 and 3] 5. Risk of food insecurity and the breakdown of food systems linked to warming, drought, flooding, and precipitation variability and extremes, particularly for poorer populations in urban and rural settings.38 [RFC 2- 4] 6. Risk of loss of rural livelihoods and income due to insufficient access to drinking and irrigation water and reduced agricultural productivity, particularly for farmers and pastoralists with minimal capital in semi-arid regions.39 [RFC 2 and 3]
  • 13. Key Risks across Sectors and Regions II 7. Risk of loss of marine and coastal ecosystems, biodiversity, and the ecosystem goods, functions, and services they provide for coastal livelihoods, especially for fishing communities in the tropics and the Arctic.40 [RFC 1, 2, and 4] 8. Risk of loss of terrestrial and inland water ecosystems, biodiversity, and the ecosystem goods, functions, and services they provide for livelihoods.41 [RFC 1, 3, and 4]
  • 15. Key Risks in Asia
  • 17. Observed Impacts, Vulnerability, and Exposure - I • In recent decades, changes in climate have caused impacts on natural and human systems on all continents and across the oceans. • In many regions, changing precipitation or melting snow and ice are altering hydrological systems, affecting water resources in terms of quantity and quality (medium confidence). • Many terrestrial, freshwater, and marine species have shifted their geographic ranges, seasonal activities, migration patterns, abundances, and species interactions in response to nongoing climate change. (high confidence).
  • 18. Observed Impacts, Vulnerability, and Exposure - II • Based on many studies covering a wide range of regions and crops, negative impacts of climate change on crop yields have been more common than positive impacts (high confidence). • At present the world-wide burden of human ill-health from climate change is relatively small compared with effects of other stressors and is not well quantified. (medium confidence). • Differences in vulnerability and exposure arise from non- climatic factors and from multidimensional inequalities often produced by uneven development processes (very high confidence). These differences shape differential risks from climate change.
  • 19. Observed Impacts, Vulnerability, and Exposure - III • Impacts from recent climate-related extremes, such as heat waves, droughts, floods, cyclones, and wildfires, reveal significant vulnerability and exposure of some ecosystems and many human systems to current climate variability (very high confidence). • Climate-related hazards exacerbate other stressors, often with negative outcomes for livelihoods, especially for people living in poverty (high confidence). • Violent conflict increases vulnerability to climate change (medium evidence, high agreement).
  • 22. r Risk Level with Current Adaptation Potential for Additional Adaptation to Reduce Risk Risk Level with High Adaptation Risk-Level Very Low Med Very High 4°C 2°C Present Long Term (2080-2100 Near Term (2030-2040 Risks for Low-Lying Coastal Areas Loss of Livelihoods, Settlements, Infrastructure, Ecosystem Services, and Economic Stability SMALL ISLANDS Compounded Stress on Water Resources Reduced Crop Productivity and Livelihood and Food Security Vector- and Water- Borne Diseases AFRICA ASIA Increased Flood Damage to Infrastructure , Livelihoods, and Settlements Heat-Related Human Mortality Increased Drought- Related Water and Food Shortage Increased Losses and Impacts from Extreme Heat Events Increased Flood Losses and Impacts EUROPE Increased Water Restrictions Increased Flood Damage to Infrastructure and Settlements Increased Risks to Coastal Infrastructure and Low-Lying Ecosystems AUSTRALASIA Significant Change in Composition and Structure of Coral Reef Systems Increased Risks from Wildfires Heat-Related Human Mortality Damages from River and Coastal Urban Floods NORTH AMERICA Reduced Water Availability and Increased Flooding and Landslides Reduced Food Production and Quality CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA Vector-Borne Diseases Reduced Fisheries Catch Potential at Low Latitudes Increased Mass Coral Bleaching and Mortality Coastal Inundation and Habitat Loss THE OCEAN Unprecedented Challenges, Especially from Rate of Change Risks for Ecosystems POLAR REGIONS Risks for Health and Well-Being
  • 23. THE LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASING MAGNITUDES OF WARMING INCREASE SEVERE AND PERVASIVE IMPACTS
  • 24. Reasons for Concern I • Unique and threatened systems: Some unique and threatened systems, including ecosystems and cultures, are already at risk from climate change (high confidence) • Extreme weather events: Climate-change- related risks from extreme events, such as heat waves, extreme precipitation, and coastal flooding, are already moderate (high confidence)
  • 25. Reasons for Concern II • Distribution of impacts: Risks are unevenly distributed and are generally greater for disadvantaged people and communities in countries at all levels of development. Risks are already moderate because of regionally differentiated climate-change impacts on crop production in particular (medium to high confidence) • Global aggregate impacts: Risks of global aggregate impacts are moderate for additional warming between 1-2°C, reflecting impacts to both Earth’s biodiversity and the overall global economy (medium confidence).
  • 26. Reasons for Concern III • Large-scale singular events: With increasing warming, some physical systems or ecosystems may be at risk of abrupt and irreversible changes. Risks associated with such tipping points become moderate between 0-1°C additional warming, due to early warning signs that both warm-water coral reef and Arctic ecosystems are already experiencing irreversible regime shifts (medium confidence).
  • 29. Freshwater resources • Freshwater-related risks of climate change increase significantly with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations (robust evidence, high agreement).All aspects of food security are potentially affected by climate change, including food access, utilization, and price stability (high confidence). • Climate change over the 21st century is projected to reduce renewable surface water and groundwater resources significantly in most dry subtropical regions (robust evidence, high agreement), intensifying competition for water among sectors (limited evidence, medium agreement).
  • 30. Terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems • A large fraction of both terrestrial and freshwater species faces increased extinction risk under projected climate change during and beyond the 21st century, especially as climate change interacts with other stressors, such as habitat modification, over-exploitation, pollution, and invasive species (high confidence). • Within this century, magnitudes and rates of climate change associated with medium- to high-emission scenarios (RCP4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) pose high risk of abrupt and irreversible regional- scale change in the composition, structure, and function of terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, including wetlands (medium confidence).
  • 31. 0 AVERAGE CLIMATE VELOCITY 2050-2090 Plant-feeding Insects Primates Carnivorous Mammals Split-hoofed Mammals Trees Herbaceous Plants Rodents Freshwater Mollusks 10080604020 RCP2.6 Flat Areas and Global Average RCP8.5 Global Average RCP4.5 Flat Areas RCP6.0 Flat Areas RCP8.5 Flat Areas Upper Bound Median Lower Bound MAXIMUM SPEED AT WHICH SPECIES CAN MOVE (km per decade)
  • 32. Coastal systems and low-lying areas • Due to sea-level rise projected throughout the 21st century and beyond, coastal systems and low-lying areas will increasingly experience adverse impacts such as submergence, coastal flooding, and coastal erosion (very high confidence).
  • 33. Marine systems • Due to projected climate change by the mid 21st century and beyond, global marine-species redistribution and marine- biodiversity reduction in sensitive regions will challenge the sustained provision of fisheries productivity and other ecosystem services (high confidence). • For medium- to high-emission scenarios (RCP4.5, 6.0, and 8.5), ocean acidification poses substantial risks to marine ecosystems, especially polar ecosystems and coral reefs, associated with impacts on the physiology, behavior, and population dynamics of individual species from phytoplankton to animals (medium to high confidence).
  • 34. CHANGE IN MAXIMUM CATCH POTENTIAL (2051-2060 COMPARED TO 2001-2010, SRES A1B) CHANGE IN pH (2081-2100 COMPARED TO 1986-2005, RCP 8.5) -0.60 -0.55 -0.50 -0.45 -0.40 -0.35 -0.30 -0.25 -0.20 -0.15 -0.10 -0.05 <50% -21 – 50% -6 – 20% -1 – 5% No data 0 – 4% 5 – 19% 20 – 49% 50 – 100% >100% CRUSTACEANS SPECIES(%) MOLLUSK 0 20 40 60 80 100 40 16 15 31 29 Positive Effect No Effect Negative Effect Mollusk and Crustacean Fisheries Present-day annual catch rate ≥0.005 tonnes km2 Cold-Water Corals Warm-Water Corals 0 20 40 60 80 100 37 4 9 18 23 COLD-WATER CORALS 0 20 40 60 80 100 7 2 7 5 3 WARM-WATER CORALS 0 20 40 60 80 100 26 9 15 23 20
  • 35. CHANGE IN MAXIMUM CATCH POTENTIAL (2051-2060 COMPARED TO 2001-2010, SRES A1B) <50% -21 – 50% -6 – 20% -1 – 5% No data 0 – 4% 5 – 19% 20 – 49% 50 – 100% >100%
  • 37. Food security and food production systems • For the major crops (wheat, rice, and maize) in tropical and temperate regions, climate change without adaptation is projected to negatively impact production for local temperature increases of 2°C or more above late-20th-century levels, although individual locations may benefit (medium confidence). • All aspects of food security are potentially affected by climate change, including food access, utilization, and price stability (high confidence).
  • 39. Human health • Until mid-century, projected climate change will impact human health mainly by exacerbating health problems that already exist (very high confidence). • Throughout the 21st century, climate change is expected to lead to increases in ill-health in many regions and especially in developing countries with low income, as compared to a baseline without climate change (high confidence).
  • 40. Key economic sectors and services • For most economic sectors, the impacts of drivers such as changes in population, age structure, income, technology, relative prices, lifestyle, regulation, and governance are projected to be large relative to the impacts of climate change (medium evidence, high agreement). • Global economic impacts from climate change are difficult to estimate. • With these recognized limitations, the incomplete estimates of global annual economic losses for additional temperature increases of ~2°C are between 0.2 and 2.0% of income (±1 standard deviation around the mean) (medium evidence, medium agreement).
  • 42. Adaptation in Urban Areas I • Many global risks of climate change are concentrated in urban areas (medium confidence). • Steps that build resilience and enable sustainable development can accelerate successful climate-change adaptation globally. • Heat stress, extreme precipitation, inland and coastal flooding, landslides, air pollution, drought, and water scarcity pose risks in urban areas for people, assets, economies, and ecosystems (very high confidence). • Risks are amplified for those lacking essential infrastructure and services or living in poor-quality housing and exposed areas.
  • 43. Adaptation in Urban Areas II • Reducing basic service deficits, improving housing, and building resilient infrastructure systems could significantly reduce vulnerability and exposure in urban areas. • Urban adaptation benefits from effective multi-level urban risk governance, alignment of policies and incentives, strengthened local government and community adaptation capacity, synergies with the private sector, and appropriate financing and institutional development (medium confidence). • Increased capacity, voice, and influence of low-income groups and vulnerable communities and their partnerships with local governments also benefit adaptation
  • 46. Large Urban Centres in South & Southeast Asia (2025)
  • 47. Large Urban Centres (2010) with Observed Climate Change Trends (1901-2012)
  • 48. Large Urban Centres (2025) with Project Climate (mid-century RCP 2.6 )
  • 49. Large Urban Centres (2025) with Project Climate (mid-century RCP 8.5 )
  • 50. Climate change: Key Risks to London (present, near-term & long-term) - I
  • 51. Climate change: Key Risks to London (present, near-term & long-term) - II
  • 52. Adaptation in Rural Areas • Major future rural impacts are expected in the near-term and beyond through impacts on water availability and supply, food security, and agricultural incomes, including shifts in production areas of food and non-food crops across the world (high confidence). • These impacts are expected to disproportionately affect the welfare of the poor in rural areas, such as female- headed households and those with limited access to land, modern agricultural inputs, infrastructure, and education. • Further adaptations for agriculture, water, forestry, and biodiversity can occur through policies taking account of rural decision-making contexts.
  • 53. Livelihoods and poverty • Throughout the 21st century, climate- change impacts are projected to slow down economic growth, make poverty reduction more difficult, further erode food security, and prolong existing and create new poverty traps, the latter particularly in urban areas and emerging hotspots of hunger (medium confidence).
  • 54. Human security • Climate change over the 21st century is projected to increase displacement of people (medium evidence, high agreement). • Climate change can indirectly increase risks of violent conflicts in the form of civil war and inter- group violence by amplifying well-documented drivers of these conflicts such as poverty and economic shocks (medium confidence). • The impacts of climate change on the critical infrastructure and territorial integrity of many states are expected to influence national security policies (medium evidence)
  • 57. Adaptation Experience • Adaptation is becoming embedded in some planning processes, with more limited implementation of responses (high confidence). • Adaptation experience is accumulating across regions in the public and private sector and within communities (high confidence). • Governments at various levels are starting to develop adaptation plans and policies and to integrate climate- change considerations into broader development plans.
  • 58. The Decision-making Context • Responding to climate-related risks involves decision-making in a changing world, with continuing uncertainty about the severity and timing of climate-change impacts and with limits to the effectiveness of adaptation (high confidence) • Adaptation and mitigation choices in the near-term will affect the risks of climate change throughout the 21st century (high confidence). • Uncertainties about future vulnerability, exposure & responses of interlinked human and natural systems are large (high confidence). • This motivates exploration of a wide range of socioeconomic futures in assessments of risks.
  • 60. Climate-resilient Pathways and Transformation • Prospects for climate-resilient pathways for sustainable development are related fundamentally to what the world accomplishes with climate-change mitigation (high confidence). • Greater rates and magnitude of climate change increase the likelihood of exceeding adaptation limits (high confidence). • Transformations in economic, social, technological, and political decisions and actions can enable climate- resilient pathways (high confidence).
  • 61. Principles for Effective Adaptation I • Adaptation is place and context specific, with no single approach for reducing risks appropriate across all settings (high confidence). • Adaptation planning and implementation can be enhanced through complementary actions across levels, from individuals to governments (high confidence). • A first step towards adaptation to future climate change is reducing vulnerability and exposure to present climate variability (high confidence).
  • 62. Principles for Effective Adaptation II • Adaptation planning and implementation at all levels of governance are contingent on societal values, objectives, and risk perceptions (high confidence). Recognition of diverse interests, circumstances, social-cultural contexts, and expectations can benefit decision making processes. • Decision support is most effective when it is sensitive to context and the diversity of decision types, decision processes, and constituencies (robust evidence, high agreement). • Existing and emerging economic instruments can foster adaptation by providing incentives for anticipating and reducing impacts (medium confidence).
  • 63. Principles for Effective Adaptation III • Poor planning, overemphasizing short-term outcomes, or failing to sufficiently anticipate consequences can result in maladaptation (medium evidence, high agreement). • Limited evidence indicates a gap between global adaptation needs and the funds available for adaptation (medium confidence). • Significant co-benefits, synergies, and tradeoffs exist between mitigation and adaptation and among different adaptation responses; interactions occur both within and across regions (very high confidence).