Agile - Embracing Uncertainty

1. Embracing Uncertainty
Dan North, DRW
@tastapod

2. Patterns of
Effective
Delivery
@tastapod

3. Faster
Software
Delivery
@tastapod

4. With apologies to George Lucas…
Fear leads to Risk
Risk leads to Process
Process leads to Hate
…and suffering and product backlogs
@tastapod

5. With apologies to George Lucas…
Fear leads to Risk
Risk leads to Process
Process leads to Hate
…and suffering and product backlogs
@tastapod

6. Understanding risk
Impact
∞
Likelihood [0.0, 1.0]
@tastapod

7. Snowbird 2001
Individuals and interactions over processes and tools
Working software over comprehensive documentation
Customer collaboration over contract negotiation
Responding to change over following a plan
@tastapod

8. Everywhere 2012
Individuals and interactions over processes and tools
Working software over comprehensive documentation
Customer collaboration over contract negotiation
Responding to change over following a plan
@tastapod

9. Everywhere 2012
Processes and tools over individuals and interactions
Working software over comprehensive documentation
Customer collaboration over contract negotiation
Responding to change over following a plan
@tastapod

10. Everywhere 2012
Processes and tools over individuals and interactions
Comprehensive documentation over working software
Customer collaboration over contract negotiation
Responding to change over following a plan
@tastapod

11. Everywhere 2012
Processes and tools over individuals and interactions
Comprehensive documentation over working software
Contract negotiation over customer collaboration
Responding to change over following a plan
@tastapod

12. Everywhere 2012
Processes and tools over individuals and interactions
Comprehensive documentation over working software
Contract negotiation over customer collaboration
Following a plan over responding to change
@tastapod

13. We crave certainty!
Faith becomes religion
Complex questions become simplistic answers
Interpretation becomes dogma
We would rather be wrong than uncertain
@tastapod

14. So we resist uncertainty
We resist uncertainty of scope
We resist uncertainty of technology
We resist uncertainty of effort
We resist uncertainty of structure
We resist uncertainty of the future
@tastapod

15. Agile methods optimize for certainty
Certainty gives us predictability
Predictability gives us repeatability
Repeatability gives us a feeling of safety
@tastapod

16. Three Ages: a model of growth
1. Explore
- optimize for discovery
2. Stabilize
- optimize for repeatability
3. Commoditize
- optimize for efficiency
Agile methods optimize for the Second Age
@tastapod

17. Deliberate discovery
Ignorance is your biggest constraint
You are second order ignorant (but not third!)
You can actively reduce your ignorance
Some unexpected bad things will happen
@tastapod

18. Deliberate discovery
Ignorance is your biggest constraint
You are second order ignorant (but not third!)
You can actively reduce your ignorance
Some unexpected bad things will happen
@tastapod

19. Deliberate discovery
Ignorance is your biggest constraint
You are second order ignorant (but not third!)
You can actively reduce your ignorance
Some unexpected bad things will happen
@tastapod

20. Deliberate discovery
Ignorance is your biggest constraint
You are second order ignorant (but not third!)
You can actively reduce your ignorance
Some unexpected bad things will happen
@tastapod

21. Real Options
Options have value
Options expire
Commit deliberately
“Never commit early unless you know why”
@tastapod

22. Embracing uncertainty
Embrace uncertainty of scope
Embrace uncertainty of technology
Embrace uncertainty of effort
Embrace uncertainty of structure
@tastapod

23. Why you won’t believe me
Attribution bias
Confirmation bias
Bias bias
But most of all, that craving for certainty!
@tastapod

24. tl; dr
Expect the unexpected
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25. tl; dr
Expect the unexpectable
Anticipate ignorance
Embrace uncertainty – it’s inevitable!
@tastapod

26. Thanks for listening
@tastapod
http://dannorth.net
dan@dannorth.net
@tastapod