13.02, Mulder — Lecture on sustainable development
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SD Course in Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, 12-23 Febraury 2006
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13.02, Mulder — Lecture on sustainable development
- 1. Sustainable Development Karel Mulder
- 3. Polynesian Society: Clans rivalry Religious centres ‘ahu’
- 4. Complex Society deforestation Collapse
- 5. Parallel?
- 7. Space Debris Parallel Easter island?
- 8. Cultural collapse • Salinisation – pumping, irrigation • Agricultural erosion, Dust Bowl • Monocultures: epidemics
- 9. But also sometimes creativity • Industrial revolution by shortage of wood » -- • Steam engine
- 10. SD is not ‘environment -Cycles -equity integrated -Sometimes contradictory: Organic water treatment, etc..
- 11. What is an environmental problem?
- 13. karelm: voorspelling op basis van zonne activiteit: bewijs voor antropogene klimaatverandering http://web.dmi.dk/fsweb/solarterrestrial/sunclimate/welcome.shtml
- 14. Sustainable Development: The world is our common heritage not just environmental efficiency but also equity
- 15. SD is related to interests As you know, I oppose the Kyoto Protocol because it exempts 80 percent of the world, including major population centers such as China and India, from compliance, and would cause serious harm to the U.S. economy. The Senate's vote, 95-0, shows that there is a clear consensus that the Kyoto Protocol is an unfair and ineffective means of addressing global climate change concerns.
- 16. The Global Challenge Halving our usage of environment/resources Income in poor ‘South’ at least 50 % of ‘North’ in 2050
- 17. I=P*A*T I Environmental Impact P Population A Affluence Consumption of services and products per capita T Technology Environmental burden per product or service unit
- 18. 80-20 rule of thumb: 20 % of world population consumes 80 % of natural resources (fossil fuels, ores etc.) Ergo: resource consumption Rich world is 16 times more than in Poor World
- 19. Economic growth 2002 2003 2004 USA 2,4 2,5 3,5 JAPAN 0,2 2 1,25 EU 1,1 0,75 2 INDUST 1,6 1,75 2,5 RIAL Overig 4,5 4,5 5,25 Wereld 3 3 3,75 http://www.cpb.nl/nl/cpbreport/2003_3/cpbr033.pdf
- 20. A Future in 50 years? North 2 % growth South 6-7 % growth 6-7 % growth for 50 years means: factor 18-30 2 % growth for 50 years means: factor 2.7 Result: - Equity difference reduced from factor 16 to factor 1.5-2.4 - Growth resource consumption: Factor 5.8-8.2
- 21. Population growth until 2050: 9,5 billion
- 22. Prognosis Population 2000 2050 WORLD 6.071 8.919 More developed regions 1.194 1.220 Less developed regions 4.877 7.699 Least developed countries 668 1.675 Africa 796 1.803 Asia 3.680 5.222 Europe 728 632 Latin America + Carib. 520 768 Northern America 316 448 Oceania 31 46 Data: UN Population Division, World Population in 2300 (http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/longrange2.htm)
- 23. From Vision to Action The Challenge 2000 2050 Global Population 1 1,5 * * Affluence/person 1 6–9 * * Pollution/affluence 1 1/9 – 1/27 = = Pollution 1 1 – 1/2 Improvement factor “20” 23
- 24. Renewal by Need And function E 20 F F E C improvement T of products and processes 5 Optimal use 1 2000 TIME 2050