1. 2013/4/30
Techno Systems Research
“1st half 2013 Mobile Phone Platform Market
& Development”
- Market Report Summary -
Takeshi Niwa (niwa@t-s-r.co.jp)
TSR

2. 1Techno Systems Research
Full report Summary
《Report Overview》
- Report Title: “1st
Half 2013 Mobile Phone Platform Market & Development”
- Research Period: Feb to April, 2013
- Release Date: Japanese report: 30 April, 2013
English report: Middle of May, 2013
- Format: A4 129 pages, MS Word format. Provided by PDF Report and Excel Data
- Report Fee: 1st
Half report: Japanese version/ hardcopy: JPY300,000-, PDF report: JPY390,000-
English version/ PDF: $4,500-
Discount offer for 1st
half & 2nd
Half 2013 report set (2nd
half update report are scheduled to release in 4Q2013)
《Research Products》
- Cellular Modem, Mobile Application Processor and Integrated Chipsets for mobile phone
《Main contents》
- Mobile Phone & Smart Phone Market Forecast, CY2011-2018
by Area, Price-Tier, Cellular Standards, OS Platforms,
Integrated Chip Type, Number of CPU Cores
- Mobile Phone & Smart Phone Market Share, CY2011-2013, 1Q2012-4Q2013
- Cellular Modem Market Share by Standard, CY2011-2013, 1Q2012-4Q2013
- Application Processor Market Share, CY2011-2013, 1Q2012-4Q2013
- Supply Chain and Ratio
- Chipset Price Forecast
- Chipset Roadmap Forecast
- Process Technology Roadmap
- CPU and GPU Core Trend
- Modem and Application Processor product list
etc
Please inquiry Sample report to niwa@t-s-r.co.jp

3. 2Techno Systems Research
1. Mobile Phone and Smartphone Market Forecast
Mobile Phone & Smartphone Market Forecast, 2011-2017
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1,000.0
1,200.0
1,400.0
1,600.0
1,800.0
2,000.0
2,200.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
MUnits
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Feature Phone
Smartphone
Smartphone %
• Handset market size was 1830 M units in 2012, slight decline from 2011.
• Smartphone market overtake feature phone in 2013, climb to 76% in 2018.

4. 3Techno Systems Research
2. Mobile Phone Market Forecast by Price-Tier
<Methodology>
- Forecast price-tier mix by each areas
and sum-up (JP, KR, CHN, India,
N.America, S.America, Europe/CIS,
other area)
-Smart feature phone are defined as:
feature phone platform with WiFi, touch
screen, Java Apps..
<Backgroud of forecast>
- "high end" keeps majority in developed
countries, thanks to operator's subsidy
- "entry" and "low-end" keep 70-80% in
developing markets
- Europe/CIS and China has more
balanced mix.
- Smart-feature phone grows and peaks
in 2013 thanks to deployments by Nokia
and Samsung. But the market will
decline in 2014, replaced by low end
smartphones.
Mobile Phone and Smartphone Market Forecast by Price-tier, 2011-2018
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1,000.0
1,200.0
1,400.0
1,600.0
1,800.0
2,000.0
2,200.0
2,400.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
MUnits
Feature phone Smart-feature phone
Smartphone Low end Smartphone Mid-low
Smartphone Mid-high Smartphone High end
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Smartphone
High-end ($400+) 13.9% 15.4% 17.1% 18.3% 18.8% 19.2% 19.5% 19.7%
Mid-high ($200-400) 9.7% 10.7% 11.6% 12.7% 12.4% 11.6% 11.3% 11.3%
Mid-low ($100-200) 2.7% 9.6% 12.2% 15.5% 17.9% 19.6% 21.0% 21.8%
Low-end (less $100) 0.0% 3.0% 10.2% 13.6% 16.2% 18.8% 21.1% 23.1%
Smart-Feature Phone* 1.6% 2.7% 3.5% 2.5% 1.8% 1.3% 0.9% 0.7%
Feature phone 72.0% 58.5% 45.3% 37.4% 32.8% 29.6% 26.3% 23.4%
* Smart-Feature Phone: feature phone with touch panel and WiFi

5. 4Techno Systems Research
3. Smartphone Market Forecast by Chip type
• Assume that Apple continue 2 chip solution (Slim modem + independent AP)
• BB/AP single chip ratio will increase from 2013, as low end smartphone spread in whole
market.
• Besides Apple, 2 chip solution is very niche, less 10% of total smartphone. Almost every AP
vendors tend to integrate cellular modem into AP.
Smartphone Market Forecast by Chip Type, 2011-2018
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1,000.0
1,200.0
1,400.0
1,600.0
1,800.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
MUnits
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Single Chip BB/AP
Independent AP
Independent AP ratio

6. 5Techno Systems Research
4. Smartphone Market Forecast by Number of CPU Core
• Quad core AP will deploy to Mid-low segment from 2014, become mainstream after 2015.
• High end Quad core: CXortex-A15 => Cortex A57 (big.LITTLE)
• Low end Quad core: Cortex A7 => Cortex A53 ??
Smartphone Market Forecast by Number of CPU Co re, 2011-2018
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1,000.0
1,200.0
1,400.0
1,600.0
1,800.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
MUnits
Quad Core
Dual Core
Single Core
* Not countingthe number of sub-CPU

7. 6Techno Systems Research
5. Smartphone Market Forecast by OS Platform
Smartphone Market Forecast by OS Platform, 2011-2018
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1000.0
1200.0
1400.0
1600.0
1800.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
MUnits
Other OS
Blackberry
FirefoxOS
Tizen
Bada
Windows Phone
iOS
Android
Symbian
• Android is dominant. Some variant for Android.
• iPhone market share will decline from 2013, with much lower market share in developing
countries.
• Firefox will take 10+ % by 2018. will gradually grow.

8. 7Techno Systems Research
6. Mobile Phone Market Forecast by Standard
Mobile Phone Market Forecast b y Cellu lar Standard, 2011-2018
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1,000.0
1,200.0
1,400.0
1,600.0
1,800.0
2,000.0
2,200.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
MUnits
other 2G
CDMA
TD-SCDMA
LTE-FDTD
LTE-TDD
LTE-FDD
WCDMA
GSM
• LTE Smartphone volume is much higher than LTE subscribers.
• LTE device volume surpass WCDMA in 2018.
• GSM market will shrink from 50% in 2012 to 20% in 2018.
• C2K market started declining from 2012, will continue decreasing by 10-15% annually.

9. 8Techno Systems Research
7. Smartphone Platform by Tier
Retail Price BOM cost AP Value Platform Example Major OEM Main Market
Qualcomm snapdragon 600 Apple
Samsung Exynos5xxx Japan, Korea, US 1st-tier operators
$400+ $200+ $20-25 Apple A6 (Subsidized Business Model)
NVIDIA Tegra Nokia (WP high end)
Intel Clover trail + Europe, China: Wealthy class
Qualcomm snapdragon 400 Japan, Korea: Low end
Renesas MP5232 (LTE) US: Low end, 2nd-tier operators
MediaTek MT6589 Europe, China: Mainstream~high end
$200-400 $150~200 $12-20 Broadcom 28150/55 Nokia (WP low end) Developing countries: high end
Marvell PXA1088 Blackberry
Qualcomm snapdragon 200 Europe, China:Mainstream~ Low end
MediaTek MT6577, 6583 Developing countries: Mainstream
$100-200 $70-150 $5-12 Spreadtrum SC8820, 8825 Chinese 2nd Tier (Android)
Broadcom 21654
Marvell PXA920 (Firefox Smartphones)
MediaTek 6573/75 Chinese 2nd Tier (Android) China (Rural)
$50-100 $40-70 ~$5 Spreadtrum SC8810 India, South Asia, Africa, Latin America…
(Nokia: Smart feature phone)
Android High end (Samsung, Sony, HTC,
LG, Motorola,
Android low end (Samsung, LG, Huawei,
ZTE, Lenovo, Yulong, Gionee, etc)
Android Mid end (Samsung, Sony, HTC,
LG, Motorola, Huawei, ZTE, Lenovo,
Yulong, etc)

10. 9Techno Systems Research
8. Smartphone AP Market Outlook 2012
High end
Mid-High
Mid-Low
Low end
AP Vendors
Qualcomm Apple MediaTek Samsung Broadcom Spreadtrum Marvell ST-Ericsson NVIDIA Intel HiSilicon
Renesas
Mobile
RDA
2012 market share
33% 19% 14% 11% 6% 4% 4% 3% 1% few few few 2013~
CPU Core (2012-2013) Krait,
C-A5=>A7
ARM v7 C-A9, C-A7
C-A9, A15,
A7
C-A9 C-A5, C-A7
Sheeva=>
C-A9, A7
C-A9 C-A9 =>A15
Atom (32bit)
=> (64bit)
C-A9 =>A15 C-A9 C-A5
GPU Core (2012-2013)
Adreno SGX SGX
SGX =>
Mali
VideoCore Mali Vivante SGX GeForce SGX Vivante SGX ?
Process Technology 28LP,
28HKMG,
40LP
32HKMG=>
28HKMG
40LP, 28LP
32HKMG=>
28HKMG
40LP, 28LP 40LP, 28LP 40LP, 28LP
45LP=>28L
P=>28LP+F
D-SOI
40LP=>28H
KMG
32HKMG=>
22HKMG+T
ri-gate
40LP =>
28HKMG?
28HKMG 40LP
Cellular modem integration ○ no ○ 2H13 ○ ○ ○ ○ 2H13 no no ○ ○
LTE support on
integrated Modem ○ no 2014 2H13 2014 2014 2014 1H13 2H13 ? ? ○ N/A
APQ
series
(Fusion
platform)
Exynos
5
MT6589
MT6575
/
6577
Exynos
4
MSM8960
=> 8960A
=>8974,
8962
MSM8x30
,
MSM8x30
AB
MSM7x25
A, 8225,
8225Q,
8226,
tegra 4i
PXA92x
PXA1088
PXA98x
BCM2165
4
BCM281x
x
SC8810,
6820
SC77xx
SC8820
T3 => T4
MT6572
/
6582

11. 10Techno Systems Research
9. Process Rule Update
process Gate 1H2012 2H2012 1H2013 2H2013 1H2014 2H2014 1H2015 2H2015
Intel
32nm HKMG planar ●chip release (Atom)
22nm HKMG Tri-Gate ●chip release (Core) ●chip release (Atom, mobile)
14nm HKMG Tri-Gate ●chip release (Core) ●chip release (Atom, mobile)
10nm
TSMC
28nm Poly planar ●chip release
28nm HKMG planar MP ●chip release
20nm HKMG planar preproduction MP ●chip release
16nm HKMG FinFET preproduction MP
Samsung
32nm HKMG planar ●chip release
28nm HKMG planar ●chip release
20nm HKMG planar preproduction ●MP, chip release
14nm-XM HKMG FinFET preproduction MP
(BEOL: 20nm)
GF
28nm Poly planar MP ●chip release
28nm HKMG planar MP ●chip release
28nm FD-SOI planar preproduction ●MP, chip release
20nm HKMG planar preproduction MP
14nm-XM HKMG FinFET preproduction MP
(BEOL: 20nm)
UMC
28nm Poly planar MP ●chip release
28nm HKMG planar MP
14nm HKMG FinFET preproduction MP
(BEOL: 20nm)
preproduction: test chip
MP: mass producttion
chip release: Application Processor release schedule
●chip release
●chip release
• Every mobile chip foundries are
going forward the process rule.
• 20/22nm gen process will be very
short life. After 6-12 month of
20nm launch (4Q/13-1Q/14
period), 14nm will stand in 2H/14.
• Intel will lose it’s process
advantage by 2014E, If other
foundries could do on time.
• 28HKMG chip might see short
supply due to limited capacity and
unstable yield.