Better fuel economy, narrowing price difference with Manual Transmission (due to improving economies of scale) alongside exacerbating skilled driver shortage and increasing level of automated driving across developed economies are expediting the adoption of electronically controlled transmissions: Automated Manual Transmissions (AMTs) and Automatic Transmissions (ATs). This research service offers an outlook of the global medium- and heavy-duty commercial truck transmissions market for the period 2015–2025. The study also offers actionable information and forecasts of the key trends and metrics that are likely to influence the growth and development of the global medium- and heavy- duty commercial truck transmission systems market.

1. Executive Analysis of the Global Medium and Heavy
Duty Truck Transmissions Market
By 2025, 44% of New Trucks Globally to Feature AMT or AT
NF9E-18
January 2016
BRIEF SUMMARY

2. 2NF9E-18
Contents
Section Slide Number
Executive Summary 3
Research Scope, Objectives, Methodology, and Background 9
Definitions and Segmentation 16
Mega Trends and Industry Convergence Implications 20
Major Trends Influencing Conventional Truck Transmission Technologies 22
Advanced Transmission Technologies 30
Global Commercial Trucks Overview 36
Drivers and Restraints 42
Supplier Profiles 53
Regional Transmissions Market Outlook 58
Conclusions & Future Outlook 65
Appendix 70

3. Return to contents
3NF9E-18
Executive Summary

4. 4NF9E-18
Executive Summary—Key Findings
MD-HD Truck Transmissions Market: Key Findings, Global, 2015–2025
Key: TRIAD—The European Union, North America, and Japan; OEM—Original Equipment Manufacturer;
GVWR—Gross Vehicle Weight Rating Source: Frost & Sullivan
With 32.5% share of the total 4.2 million annual Medium Duty (MD)-Heavy Duty (HD) truck market by 2025,
AMTs are expected to experience the highest rate of adoption in the next decade at a CAGR of 12.5% from
2015–2025. ATs are also expected to increase their share from 8.5% in 2015 to 11.5% in 2025. TRIAD markets
are most favorable for ECT adoption.
2
1
Electronically Controlled Transmissions (ECTs)—Automated Manual Transmissions (AMTs) and Automatic
Transmissions (ATs)—presently have an incremental cost of $600–$10,000 and offer -5% to 10% fuel savings,
depending on truck GVWR and duty cycle, over baseline manual transmissions. The typically high incremental
cost versus fuel savings is the primary factor presently inhibiting mass adoption of ECTs.
Downspeeding, leading to engine downsizing, coupled with increasing vertical integration of transmissions in
North America (NA), Europe, and Asia is catalyzing the adoption of ECTs. ECTs are favored by truck OEMs to
meet the higher torque requirements placed by powertrain downspeeding. European truck manufacturers
already offer AMTs as standard fitment in MD-HD trucks. This technology has a share of 55.4% in the EU
market in 2015.
3
Fuel economy benefits of ECTs in higher GVWR vehicles (more than 16 tons) are yet to be conclusively
proven. Therefore, this segment is still dominated by conventional Manual Transmissions (MTs), with skilled
drivers, across regions. MTs account for 81.4% the global HD truck segment in 2015. However, the share of
MTs is forecasted to decline steadily during the forecast period to 65.5% by 2025.
4
Better fuel economy of ECTs, narrowing price difference with MTs (due to improving economies of scale),
exacerbating skilled driver shortage, and increasing level of automated driving across developed economies on
both sides of the Atlantic are expediting the adoption of ECTs.
5

5. 5NF9E-18
71.2%
25.6%
3.2%
64.0%
31.2%
4.7%
62.9%
28.8%
8.3%19.7%
65.9%
14.4%
27.1%29.4%
43.5%
China
India
South America
RussiaEurope
North America
Next 11+ RoW
~156,000
69.1% 26.9%
4.0%
~1.0 Million
55.1%
37.2%
7.7%
~254,000
Size and values of pie charts denote truck transmission market size in terms of unit shipment.
~618,000
~1.2 Million
~509,000
~404,000
MT AMT AT
MD-HD Truck Transmissions Market: Unit Shipment Forecast for Top Regions, Global, 2025
(2.7%)
3.9%
2.9%
MT
AMT
AT
(4.7%)
4.1%
14.7%
MT
AMT
AT
5.9%
17.2%
25.7%
MT
AMT
AT
4.2%
38.3%
---
MT
AMT
AT
(0.5%)
23.7%
22.2%
MT
AMT
AT
2.7%
8.3%
13.7%
MT
AMT
AT
3.9%
32.7%
---
MT
AMT
AT
C
A
G
R
C
A
G
R
C
A
G
R
C
A
G
R
C
A
G
R
C
A
G
R
C
A
G
R
CAGR calculated for 2015–2025.
Executive Summary—Global MD-HD Truck Transmission Forecast 2025
ECTs are expected to experience strong adoption by 2025 with AMTs and ATs growing at a CAGR of 12.5%
and 7.7%, respectively, from 2015.
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2015. Source: Frost & Sullivan

6. 6NF9E-18
MD-HD Truck Transmissions Market: Technology Roadmap, Global, 1950–2025
Dog Clutch and Synchronized
Manual
AT
Electronically Controlled
Transmissions
AMT
AT
DCT
IVT
CVP
Skilled Driver Shortage:
As truck drivers from the ―baby-
boomer‖ generation retire to be
replaced by ―millennials‖, training and
retention costs are escalating
because these young drivers lack
basic familiarity with manuals,
especially in NA, where passenger
cars are largely AT driven.
As ECTs are easier to operate, fleet
owners believe they will help with
hiring and retention.
1950–1980 1980–2010 2010–2025
Fleet Operation Cost:
Fuel costs can account for 50%–65% of a
fleet’s operating costs, making it the highest
cost component for fleets. Studies show that
adoption of AMTs and ATs can improve truck
fuel efficiency in varying degrees depending
on truck operating duty cycle. AMTs are
especially beneficial in drive cycles with high
idling time in comparison to MTs and
conventional ATs.
Use of ECTs also reduces the variability in fuel
economy—the variance between the best and
worst fuel economy among trucks in a fleet.
Emission Regulations:
US EPA Phase 2 GHG regulations
demand a 40%–50% fuel economy over
existing models. The European Union
(EU) and China are also looking to apply
stringent diesel emission norms, as
diesel emissions are increasingly being
viewed as carcinogenic.
Tightening diesel powertrain emission
norms are forcing truck manufacturers to
adopt new technologies such as ECTs.
Key: DCT—Dual Clutch Transmissions, IVT—Infinitely Variable Transmission, CVP—Continuously
Variable Planetary, US EPA—US Environmental Protection Agency, GHG—Green House Gas.
Key Technology Adoption Influencers
Executive Summary—Transmissions Technology Evolution
Skilled driver shortage, coupled with rising operating cost and emission compliance challenges, is driving the
adoption of ECT technologies such as AMT and AT.
Source: Frost & Sullivan

7. 7NF9E-18
Characteristics Stepped Manual [MT] Automated Manual [AMT]
Stepped Automatic
[AT] Dual Clutch [DCT]
Shift Time [ms] 1,500-2,000 1,000–1,500 500–700 600–800
Fuel Consumption
Savings
Baseline
MD +3-+10%
HD +0–+8%
MD +1-+6%
HD -5–+1%*
MD +3–+5%
HD NA
Weight Baseline
MD +5-+10%
HD -10–+70%
MD Similar to AMT
HD +70–+80%
MD +0%-+50%
HD +70-+90%
Cost [$] Baseline
MD +600-3,000
HD + 1,000–5,000
MD +3,600-6,000
HD +6,000–10,000
MD +3,000-6,000
HD +5,000–10,000
CO2 Reduction Baseline 3–5% 3-8% 4–8%
Key Suppliers
ZF, Eaton, Shaanxi Fast
Gear, Wanliyang
ZF, Eaton, Shaanxi Fast
gear
Allison ZF, Eaton
Key Vertically
Integrated OEM
Groups
CNHTC, FAW, Dongfeng,
Tata, Ashok Leyland
Daimler, Volvo, VW,
CNHTC, FAW, Dongfeng,
Tata, Ashok Leyland
None Daimler, Volvo
End Consumer
Feedback/
Acceptance
• Low cost
• High fuel efficiency
• Ease of maintenance
• Poor shift quality
• Improved fuel efficiency
in most duty cycles
• High comfort levels
and shift quality
• Higher price
• Good shift quality
• Expensive
• Bulkiest/Heaviest
2025 Growth
Potential
Low High Medium Medium
*Allison’s TC10 are reported to have a 3-5% fuel saving.
Executive Summary—Truck Transmission Technology Comparison
The dual clutch transmission is increasingly identified as the best of both worlds, combining the comfort of an
automatic and fuel consumption benefits of a manual.
Source: Frost & Sullivan

8. 8NF9E-18
Parameters Current Outlook (2015) Future Outlook (2025)
Market
Status
This market globally continues to be dominated by
MTs whereas TRIAD markets have already
adopted widely developed AMTs with 55.4% and
22.8% penetration in EU and NA, respectively.
AMTs are expected to be the fastest growing transmission type
with 12.5% CAGR between 2015 and 2025.
Competition
It is a highly oligopolistic market with top 3 tier-I
suppliers accounting for more than 47% of the
market.
Chinese transmission manufacturers are expected to begin
supplying to overseas markets and/or customers, creating a
greater threat of substitution for foreign transmission suppliers.
Value
Proposition
Truck manufacturers are offering customized
(downsped) powertrains to fleets so as to offer
greater fuel economy benefits. The resulting higher
torque at cruise speeds drive the demand for ECTs
which arrest the damage caused to transmission
through improper manual handling.
Driver shortage, health, wellness, and wellbeing factors,
combined with the trend toward autonomous trucks will drive the
demand for ECTs that can retain or improve the fuel efficiency
of manuals while reducing driver-control.
Technology
Current key technologies are MTs, AMTs, and
conventional stepped ATs. DCTs are garnering
interest in the truck segment. ZF already has a
revenue stream from telematics (openmatics).
Truck OEMs and tier-I transmission suppliers are investing in
technologies such as CVP by Fallbrook Technologies and IVT
by Torotrak. These are expected to be mass produced by 2020.
Further, following the implication of connectivity and big data in
trucks, more tier-I suppliers will look to integrate telematics into
their revenue stream.
Market Entry
Barriers
The high level of market consolidation among large
and established suppliers is a great hurdle for new
entrants.
Increasing vertical integration by truck OEMs
decrease market attractiveness.
There will be a widespread need to adapt strategic pricing
methods, and incorporate advanced communication, sensing,
power, and tracking technologies
MD-HD Truck Transmissions Market: Current and Future Outlook, Global, 2015 and 2025
Executive Summary—Key Findings and Future Outlook
Oligopolistic competitive landscape will remain; threat to tier-I suppliers due to greater vertical integration of
transmission systems by OEMs; telematics to be targetted for a new revenue stream.
Source: Frost & Sullivan

9. Return to contents
9NF9E-18
Research Scope, Objectives, Background, and
Methodology

10. 10NF9E-18
Research Scope
Commercial TrucksVehicle Type
2016–2025Forecast Period
2015–2025Study Period
2015Base Year
Global
• North America consists of the United States, Canada, and Mexico
• South America includes all other countries of Latin America
• Europe consists of the EU and non-EU countries in Europe other
than Russia.
• China
• India
• Russia
• Next 11 (Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, the
Philippines, Turkey, South Korea, Vietnam, and Bangladesh)
• Rest of the world (RoW)
Geographical Scope
Source: Frost & Sullivan

11. 11NF9E-18
Research Aims and Objectives
Aim
• The aim of the study is to offer an outlook of the global MD-HD truck transmissions market for the 2015–
2025 period. The study also offers actionable information and forecasts of the key trends and metrics
that are likely to influence the growth and development of the global MD-HD commercial truck
transmission systems market.
Objectives
• To provide market size and forecasts of truck transmission systems for 2015–2025.
• To provide a strategic overview of the market share of various transmission system suppliers and
outlook.
• To provide strategic insights and deep-dive analyses of product strategy of global truck OEMs and tier-I
transmission system suppliers.
• To provide strategic insight into OEM and tier-I supplier global growth initiatives, capabilities, and
activities toward enhancing product profitability and technology in truck transmission systems.
• To analyze competitive factors, competitor market shares, and product portfolio and capabilities.
• To develop an actionable set of recommendations for market growth and sustenance.
Source: Frost & Sullivan

12. 12NF9E-18
Key Questions This Study Will Answer
What are the key trends impacting the MD-HD truck transmissions market?
How will transmission systems evolve by 2025? What will be the market share of each technology?
What will be the product focus of key transmission suppliers in each region?
What will be the transmission strategy for truck OEMs across regions?
What is the projected volume of transmission sales in 2025?
What are the drivers and restraints for various transmission technologies?
Source: Frost & Sullivan

13. 13NF9E-18
Research Background
This research builds on the content from Frost & Sullivan’s recently published studies in the area of
business strategy and innovation:
NEC5-18 Strategic Outlook for Autonomous Heavy-duty Trucks (2015)
NF51-18 Executive Outlook of Hyundai’s Global Commercial Vehicle Market Activities (2015)
NF8D-18 Executive Analysis of Medium-Duty and Heavy-Duty Value Truck Market in Select Emerging
Economies (2015)
NFAB-01 Executive Profiles of Key Truck Telematics Vendors—PART 1(2015)
NE05-18 Executive Outlook of the Global Medium- and Heavy-Duty Low-Cost Truck Market (2015)
P895-18 Strategic Analysis of Chinese Light, Medium, and Heavy-Duty Commercial Truck Market (2015)
ND32-18 Strategic Analysis of Global City Truck Market (2014)
NC9A-18 Commercial Vehicles 2020 Vision (2014)
NE67-18 Executive Impact Analysis of Big Data in the Trucking Industry (2014)
This study is also supplemented by ongoing interactions with vehicle manufacturers and suppliers in the
area of business strategy and innovation.
Source: Frost & Sullivan

14. 14NF9E-18
Research Methodology: Frost & Sullivan’s research services are based on secondary and primary
research data.
Secondary Research: Extraction of information from existing reports and project material within the
Frost & Sullivan database includes data and information gathered from technical papers, specialized
magazines, seminars, and Internet research.
Primary Research: More than 15 interviews have been conducted over the phone by senior consultants
and industry analysts with original equipment suppliers, regulation authorities, and distributors. Primary
research accounts for 80% of the total research.
Note on Images: Images have been used with permission of the copyright holder.
Research Methodology
Source: Frost & Sullivan

15. 15NF9E-18
Key OEMs Compared in This Study
Group CV OEMs
Daimler
Mercedes-Benz, Freightliner,
Western Star, Fuso, Thomas
Built, Bharat Benz, Setra
Volvo
Volvo, UD, Renault, Mack,
Eicher
Volkswagen
Volkswagen Commercial
Vehicles, MAN, Scania, SEAT
BAIC Foton Motor
Navistar
Navistar, IC bus, SST Truck
Company
Hyundai Motor
Group (HMG)
Hyundai, Kia, Sichuan
Hyundai Motor Company
Group CV OEMs
Dongfeng DFM, Dongfeng Peugeot-Citreon
Paccar DAF, Kenworth
Ford Ford
Tata Tata Motors
CNH Iveco, Iveco Astra, Heuliez Bus
Toyota Toyota, Daihatsu, Hino
CNHTC Sinotruck
FAW FAW
The following OEM groups are compared in this study:
Source: Frost & Sullivan

16. Return to contents
16NF9E-18
Definitions and Segmentation

17. 17NF9E-18
Product/Technology Segmentation
MD-HD Truck Transmissions Market: Product/Technology Segmentation, Global, 2015
Automated Manual
Transmission (AMT)
Automatic Transmission
Dual Clutch
Transmission (DCT)
Stepped
Automatic Transmission (AT)
Transmission Technologies
Infinitely Variable
Transmission (IVT)
Manual Transmission
(MT)
Continuously Variable
Planetary (CVP)
Twin Counter-shaft
Automatic Transmission (TC10)
Electronically controlled
Transmissions (ECT)
Commercialized Technology
Technology in the Incubation Stage
Source: Frost & Sullivan

18. 18NF9E-18
Product/Technology Segmentation (continued)
• MTs require the driver to operate the clutch through a pedal or a lever and engage the gears (shift
up/down) by using a gear shift lever.
• AMTs or semi-automatic transmissions operate like a MT but without a clutch pedal. The shifting can be
entirely computer controlled or driver controlled through shifter paddles or buttons mounted on the
steering wheel.
• DCT is a type of AMT which encompasses two gearboxes (one housing the odd gears and the other
even gears) with a separate clutch for each. This setup, therefore, allows for the pre-selection of the next
expected gear ratio while driving the current gear, with timed engaging and disengaging of the
respective clutches. Thus it allows for fast and smooth gear shifting and no torque interruptions. It is
operated generally in the automatic D mode but some also have the option of manual shifting.
• A stepped AT automatically changes gear ratios in response to the speed of the vehicle without any
external command from the driver. It encompasses a planetary gear set and a torque converter. An AT
is predominantly hydraulically operated. The planetary gear set uses the same set of gears to provide
different gear ratios as opposed to using different sets of gears as in an MT. The torque converter
connects the engine to transmissions. It is a type of fluid coupling that provides torque multiplication at
low engine speed.
• Allison Transmissions offers a new AT technology which uses 2 countershafts and a torque converter.
This product is called TC10 (for Twin Countershaft and Torque Converter) plus 10 speeds. This
technology is patented by Allison and allows shifts without interrupting engine torque. It has very fast
shift times, the same as a traditional automatic (AT).
• This study groups AMT, DCT, and AT as ECTs.
Source: Frost & Sullivan

19. 19NF9E-18
Reference
Vehicle
Classification Definition GVWR Typical Applications
MD
Medium duty
truck
Represents all types of
mid-size trucks
Class 47
GVWR >6T and
< 16T
Home delivery, logistics, parcel delivery,
utilities, waste and recycle collection,
refuse, truck tractor
HD Heavy duty truck All types of large trucks
Class 8
GVWR> 16T
Line-haul freight, refuse collection,
mining and construction, and other
vocations that demand high GVWR
trucks
Commercial Vehicle Definitions and Vehicle Segmentation
Trucks are classified as light, medium, or heavy based on a combination of GVWR and vocation. This study
addresses the MD and HD truck segments only.
Commercial Vehicle Market: Definitions and Segmentation, Global, 2015
Source: Frost & Sullivan

20. 20NF9E-18
The Last Word—3 Big Predictions
2
Telematics will be a major revenue stream for both tier-I transmission suppliers and
OEMs that will be driven by the increasing integration of connectivity, Big Data,
telematics, and autonomous driving technology in trucks.
3
By 2025 China will be the largest market for AMTs, accounting for 28% of global AMT
sales and NA will be the largest market for ATs accounting for 55.7% of the global AT
sales in the MD-HD truck market.
1
Greater vertical integration by OEMs will result in further consolidation in the truck
transmissions market, with OEMs accounting for a majority 33% market share by
2025 followed by top 3 tier-I suppliers accounting for close to 50% market share.
Source: Frost & Sullivan

21. 21NF9E-18
Market Engineering Methodology
One of Frost & Sullivan’s core
deliverables is its Market Engineering
studies. They are based on our
proprietary Market Engineering
Methodology. This approach, developed
across the 50 years of experience
assessing global markets, applies
engineering rigor to the often nebulous art
of market forecasting and interpretation.
A detailed description of the methodology
can be found here.
Source: Frost & Sullivan