Menig words for March 10, 2019 Truckload Carriers Association presentation on Smart Trailers

1. TCA Presentation 2019.03.10
Slide
This technology curve was developed by several people at Iowa
State. For some consumer products, it can take 100 years and for
others it can take 5 years. Basically, there are people, even in our
industry, that are techno-geeks and want to try everything that
someone comes up with. They are enthusiastic innovators. Those
technologies that make it through that phase, attract a larger group
of early adopter visionaries. Then things begin to take off as the
pragmatic early majority and the conservative late majority are
dragged into the market. They don’t jump. And, there will always be a
few people that are skeptical laggards and may never adopt the new
technology. Let’s look at some trucking examples.
Slide
All of you now, I hope, have an ELD. There is a large percentage of
you moving from AOBRDs to ELDs because you were among the
people on the left side of the curve and adopted early. The first
products I am aware of started with Schneider in 1988. It’s now 2019
and even the skeptics have had to tow the line. So, that’s 30-years.
Slide
I started working with automated mechanical transmissions in the
mid 1980s. Product was out in the hands of fleets by 1990. I often tell
the story that in 1990 at Eaton, I had to create a strategic forecast for
the AMTs. We said by the year 2000 30% of on-highway class 8
tractors would have AMT’s. Well, that didn’t happen, and I changed
jobs. The two are NOT related. In 2000, I’m working at my biggest

2. TCA Presentation 2019.03.10
customer, Freightliner and have to put together a forecast for AMT
usage. We put together a plan that says by 2010, 30% will have
AMTs. That did not happen either. In 2010 I had to update the
forecast and again said by 2020 something much greater than 30%
will have AMTs. That did happen. It’s now 2019 and roughly 75% of
vehicles have an automatic or automated mechanical transmission. It
still varies for vocational and specialized markets, so it is still not
100%.
I could talk about anti-lock brakes, wide based tires, single piece
windshields, even electric windshield wipers.
Slide
Several top fleets in the industry participate in a review of adoption of
technology in various areas. Over roughly 15 years, adoption has
steadily increased for a variety of fuel saving technologies and
practices, but none have reached 100% penetration. Practices have
reached about 70%. Square nosed tractors are almost a thing of the
past with aerodynamics now about 60%. Lots of fleets are still
running older engines, so adoption of the latest engine technology is
at about 40%. Low rolling resistance tires are also around 40%.
Trailer aerodynamics increased significantly since 2008, but has only
reached 20%. I expect the record production of trailers in the last few
years will keep the percentage adoption of trailer aerodynamics low
for many years to come.
My conclusion is that it takes approximately 30 years from start to
high adoption rates, even with some government regulations.
Slide

3. TCA Presentation 2019.03.10
So what exactly is a “smart trailer” versus a ”dumb trailer.” I could
define a smart trailer as a special machine actively responding and
relaying data and information thanks to technology. Huh? Basically,
that trailer is going to have a lot more sensors, wires, computers,
actuators, and be able to tell you all about it. As a side note, when I
started in trucking at Eaton, I became convinced that it was all about
the transmission and the axle. The engine was useless unless the
gears were right to turn the wheels at the right speed with the right
torque. When I started at Freightliner, I recall going to all the engine
manufacturers and making a presentation regarding which comes
first in the selection process, the engine or the vehicle manufacturer.
In the mid-90s, it was clearly the engine that was chosen first.
Freightliner had a different long term vision. The vehicle OEMs all
wanted you to choose them first. They’ve pretty much accomplished
that now that they have their own engine and transmission. But what
about the trailer? When I started, the average was something like 3.5
trailers per tractor. That’s right, there’s an important element called a
trailer. The ratio has changed, I believe. I’ve seen some data to
suggest it is as low as 2.7 trailers per tractor now. I’m not sure how
that analysis treats the chassis hauling containers, which is much
greater now. So, is it about the transmission, no. Is it about the
engine, no. Is it about the tractor, no. Is it about the trailer. Sort of.
Slide
It’s really about the freight inside the packaging inside the trailer.
Trailers need to get smarter to help you keep that freight moving
efficiently from point A to point B.
I’ve been in this industry long enough to know, the majority of fleets
need hard data to support investing in new technology.

4. TCA Presentation 2019.03.10
Slide
New technology must do such things as help move freight faster,
lower overall costs, improve safety, which affects cost, but also
impacts the image of a company. Technology may reduce driver
stress. My wife wants to know when that package will be delivered.
That requires informing everyone in the chain. I did a blog to
FleetOwner IdeaXchange recently, where I tracked how two Apple
Watches were tracked from manufacture in China to delivery in
Portland, OR. I also discussed some trade show materials that went
by ground from Connecticut to Oregon. Another thing a smart trailer
can do is improve society in terms of congestion, air quality, and
convenience.
Slide
You actually have more than a dumb trailer today. Since 2001, all new
trailers have a computer for the antilock brakes. Trailer telematics
and reefer controls have been used by fleets for over a decade now.
We all expected the FDA in January 2018 to require better tracking of
temperature monitoring. The FDA did not require it, but Amazon and
Walmart are pushing it. Fleets learned the benefits from connecting
sensors for door open/closed and load present or not in terms of
managing wasted dead-head miles and precious driver hours of
service.
Slide
In the next 2-5 years, the early adopters and visionaries will be
adding more stability controls to avoid rollovers, sensing individual
lights that are not working, adding weight sensors to get the bogie
position just right. The EPA did not require tire pressure monitoring or
control in January 2018, but many have already started using it and

5. TCA Presentation 2019.03.10
seeing benefit. I expect this will come back onto the table and be
required at some point. Wireless backup cameras are making
significant strides. For those doing local deliveries, more will be
sensed and controlled for the lift gate.
Slide
Five to ten years from now, even more will be sensed and reported
on for the trailer. As we move to better, safer vehicles, the tractor will
need better information about the brakes on the trailer. As we move
to autonomous operation in limited and controlled environments, that
additional trailer information will be critical. Sensing will extend to
more than just backup cameras. Light duty trucks from GM and Ford,
already have radar sensors to sense if there is something in the way
of changing lanes. The same feature is in the earliest stages for
trailers. Some fleets are concerned about wheel ends coming off and
fires starting from bad brakes or bearings. I’ll bet some of you have
had a driver cause damage by forgetting to lift the landing gear when
pulling away.
Slide
As we go further out, I can imagine someone will have automatic
controls for adjusting the bogie to get the weight right rather than
relying on a driver to adjust it. Electric axles are already in prototype
applications for the tractor. An extra motor on a trailer has already
been suggested. Finally, why have a tractor if the trailer can power
itself? Several concepts for powered trailers have already been put
forth in the industry. They are not ready today, but maybe beyond
2030.
Slide

6. TCA Presentation 2019.03.10
I recommend you do three things.
One. Press for standardization in the smart trailers so that you can
minimize the cost of maintenance and assure mix and match
operation between tractors and trailers.
Two. Start paying more attention to key performance indicators
related to the trailer and its contents.
Three. It’s all about moving the freight. It’s not the trailer, the tractor,
the engine, transmission or axle.
Slide
We are in the business of moving freight from point A to point B,
safely, quickly, cost efficiently, with minimal impact on infrastructure
and congestion.