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Comparative Analysis between
India and China,
Pre vs Post Globalization of India
Project Report submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements
of the degree of
Bachelor of Business Administration
by
Nirupama Maharana
Registration No. 200409120038
Arpita Sardar
Registration No. 200409120031
Manpreet Nayak
Registration No. 200409120061
Mariam Magdale Kerketta
Registration No. 200409120036
Under the supervision of
DR. SISIR RANJAN DASH
MA, MBA, UGC–NET, Ph. D
Assistant Professor, School of Management,
Centurion University of Technology & Management, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India
SCHOOL OF MANAGMENT
CENTURION UNIVERSITY OF
TECHNOLOGY & MANAGEMENT
BHUBANESWAR, ODISHA, INDIA
2022
Table of Contents
1. Introduction........................................................................................................3
2. Review of Literature..........................................................................................3
2.1 Imports of Goods and Services:.................................................................. 3
2.2 Urban Population (% of Total Population):................................................. 4
2.3 Gross National Expenditure (% of GDP):....................................................5
2.4 Inflation, Consumer Price (annual %):.........................................................5
3. Research Design................................................................................................ 6
4. Analysis and Findings....................................................................................... 6
4.1 Imports of Goods and Services (% of GDP) of India and China..............7
4.2 Urban Population (% of Total Population)................................................9
4.3 Gross National Expenditure (% of GDP)................................................11
4.4 Inflation, consumer Price (annual %)......................................................13
5. Managerial Implications..................................................................................15
Bibliography........................................................................................................ 15
Appendix I........................................................................................................... 16
Appendix II..........................................................................................................16
Appendix III.........................................................................................................17
Appendix IV........................................................................................................ 17
1. Introduction
India and China are the two most populous countries in the world. China and India
together account for about 36% of total world population and 67% of Asia population. China
and India are both urbanizing rapidly, but China has embraced and shaped the process, while
India is still waking up to its urban realities and opportunities. Never before in history have
two of the largest nations (in terms of population) urbanized at the same time, and at such a
pace. This process will drive fundamental shifts in both countries which will have significant
consequences for the world economy as well as on countries Gross National Expenditure,
Imports, Inflation etc. and offer exciting new opportunities for investors. Here, in this report
we have studied detailed analysis of comparison between India and China on the basis of 3
indicators and a comparison between (1961-1990) & (1991-2020) India on the basis of 1
indicator. All the 4 indicators based on which this report is made are:
1.1 Imports of Goods and Services (% of GDP)
1.2 Urban Population (% of Total Population)
1.3 Gross National Expenditure (GNE), (% of GDP)
1.4 Inflation, Consumer Price (annual %)
2. Review of Literature
India and China are the two emerging economies in the world. As of 2021, China and
India are the 2nd and 5th largest economies in the world, respectively, on a nominal basis. On
a PPP basis, China is at 1st, and India is at 3rd place. Both countries share 21% and 26% of
the total global wealth in nominal and PPP terms, respectively. Among Asian countries,
China and India together contribute more than half of Asia's GDP.
2.1 Imports of Goods and Services: Imports are the goods and services that are purchased
from the rest of the world by a country’s residents, rather than buying domestically produced
items. Imports lead to an outflow of funds from the country since import transactions involve
payments to sellers residing in another country. Imports of goods and services represent the
value of all goods and other market services received from the rest of the world. They include
the value of merchandise, freight, insurance, transport, travel, royalties, license fees, and
other services, such as communication, construction, financial, information, business,
personal, and government services. They exclude compensation of employees and investment
income (formerly called factor services) and transfer payments.
2.1.1 Imports of Goods and Services of India: India is number 12 in total imports in the
whole world .The top imports of India are Crude Petroleum ($59B), Gold($21.9B),
Coal Briquettes ($20.9B), Diamonds ($15.8B), and Petroleum Gas ($13.8B),
importing mostly from China ($64.2B), United States ($26.6B), United Arab
Emirates ($22.1B), Saudi Arabia ($16.8B), and Iraq ($14.4B).
2.1.2 Imports of Goods and Services of China: China is the number 2 in total imports in the
whole world. The top imports of China are Crude Petroleum ($150B), Integrated
Circuits ($144B), Iron Ore ($99B), Cars ($42B), and Soybeans ($37.4B), importing
mostly from Japan ($133B), South Korea ($131B), United
States ($122B), Germany ($106B), and Chinese Taipei ($104B).
2.2 Urban Population (% of Total Population): Among the BRIC countries especially
China and India are always a topic of interest for researchers, investors and policy
makers. For the past few decades these two countries among the BRIC nations show
rapid development and have huge potential to develop in the future. By 2025, nearly
2.5 billion Asians will live in cities, accounting for almost 54 percent of the world’s
urban population. India and China alone will account for more than 62 percent of Asian
urban population growth and 40 percent of Asian urban population growth from 2005
to 2025. The Asia Pacific Housing Journal published a core idea they tried to illustrate
though is that even through the previous fact might be true, India has the ability to gain
a lot more in terms of their urban demographic due to the fact that China is aging at a
fast rate. The article stresses that two major countries have never urbanized at the same
time as much as they are now.
2.2.1 Urban Population of India: In 1950, India was a more urban nation than China 17
percent of the population lived in cities. India to add 215 million to its cities, whose
populations will account for 38 percent of the total in 2025.
2.2.2 Urban Population of China: From 1950 to 2005, China urbanized far more rapidly
than India, to an urbanization rate of 41 percent, Global Institute expects this
pattern to continue, with China forecast to add 400 million to its urban population,
which will account for 64 percent of the total population by 2025.
The Asia Pacific Housing Journal published an article entitled “Comparing
China and India’s urbanization”. The article looked a recent McKinsey Quarterly
report on China and India’s urbanization and expanded on the ideas were presented.
The author states that China has started to embrace urbanization and are more
efficient at doing so compare to India who on the other hand, is just realizing the
grand opportunity that awaits.
2.3 Gross National Expenditure (% of GDP): Gross national expenditure (formerly
domestic absorption) is the sum of household final consumption expenditure (formerly
private consumption), general government final consumption expenditure (formerly
general government consumption), and gross capital formation (formerly gross
domestic investment).
2.3.1 Gross National Expenditure (% of GDP) of India: Gross national expenditure (%
of GDP) in India was 102.38 as of 2019. Its highest value over the past 59 years was
111.77 in 1966, while its lowest value was 99.86 in 2016.
2.3.2 Gross National Expenditure (% of GDP) of China: Gross national expenditure (% of
GDP) in China was 99.27 as of 2019. Its highest value over the past 59 years was
104.13 in 1985, while its lowest value was 91.47 in 2007.
2.4 Inflation, Consumer Price (annual %): Inflation is the rate of increase in prices over
a given period of time. Inflation is typically a broad measure, such as the overall
increase in prices or the increase in the cost of living in a country. But it can also be
more narrowly calculated for certain goods, such as food, or for services, such as a
haircut, for example. Whatever the context, inflation represents how much more
expensive the relevant set of goods and/or services has become over a certain period,
most commonly a year.
2.4.1 Inflation in India (1961- 1990): The inflation rate accelerated steadily from an
annual average of 1.7% during the 1950s to 6.4 % during the 1960s and further to
9.0 % in the 1970s before easing marginally to 8.0 % in the 1980s. India had
generally not experienced runaway inflation. On the other hand, the volatility in the
inflation rate, as measured by the coefficient of variation, which was fairly high in
the 1950s at 4.4, moved in a narrow band of 0.4–1.0 in the subsequent decades,
thus reducing the inflation-risk premium. The pickup in inflation rate from 1970s
onwards reflected the impact of a sharp rise in money supply growth and also partly
supply shocks from crude oil prices and crop failures. Demand pressures,
emanating partly from the widening fiscal imbalances, also contributed to
inflationary pressures in the 1980s.
2.4.2 Inflation in India (1991-2020): There is a declining trend in inflation since 1990 in
India. Inflation in India has declined steadily from an average of 10.3 % between
1990–1994, to 8.9 % during 1995–1999 and to 4.3 % in this decade. Since 1990,
India has experienced average growth rates of around 6% per annum.
3. Research Design
i. Objective: The research has been done to make a comparative analysis between India
and China based on indicators I.e., Imports of Goods and Services (% of GDP), Urban
Population (% of Total Population), Gross National Expenditure (% of GDP). And a
comparative analysis between Pre and Post Globalization of India on the basis of
Consumer price inflation (annual %).
ii. Time Period: For the research purpose data has collected from 1961 - 2020.
iii. Source: All the data collected are secondary and the source is World bank.
iv. Tools: We have used mean, median, mode, standard error, variance, standard
deviation, skewness, kurtosis, range etc. for our research.
v. Hypothesis Testing: We have used t-Test: Paired two sample for means for
hypothesis testing at a significance level of 0.05.
4. Analysis and Findings
4.1 Imports of Goods and Services (% of GDP) of India and China
Fig. 4.1.1 Imports of Goods and Services (% of GDP) of India and China
Source: World Bank
Table 4.1.1: Descriptive statistics of Imports of Goods & Services of
India and China
India China
Mean 12.84 13.02
Standard Error 1.06 1.05
Median 8.91 13.67
Mode #N/A # N/A
Standard Deviation 8.18 8.15
Sample Variance 66.96 66.41
Kurtosis -0.61 -1.14
Skewness 0.87 0.21
Range 27.55 26.31
Minimum 3.71 2.13
Maximum 31.26 28.44
Sum 770.51 781.14
Count 60 60
Confidence Level (95. %) 2.11 2.11
To perform t-Test we have taken the null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis as
H0 : There is no significance difference in Imports of Goods & Service( % of GDP) of India
and China.
H1 - There is a significance difference in Import of Goods & Service (% of GDP) of India and
China.
Table 4.1.2 t-Test: Paired Two Sample for Means
(Imports of Goods and Services (% of GDP)
India China
Mean 12.84 13.02
Variance 66.96 66.41
Observations 60 60
Pearson Correlation 0.86
Hypothesized Mean Difference 0
Degrees of Freedom 59
t stat -0.32
P( T<=t ) one-tail 0.38
t critical one- tail 1.67
P ( T<=t ) two tail 0.75
t critical two-tail 2.00
Fig 4.1.2 t- test: Paired Two sample for Means (Imports of Goods and services % of GDP of
India and China)
Since, the calculated value of t (- 0.32) is lying in the acceptance region ( -2.00, 2.00) we
have to accept the null hypothesis that there is no significance difference in Imports of Goods
& Service (% of GDP) of India and China.
4.2 Urban Population (% of Total Population)
Fig 4.2.1 Urban Population (% of Total Population) of India and China
Source: World Bank
Table 4.2.1 : Descriptive statistics Urban Population ( % of Total Population )
of India and China
India China
Mean 25.67 31.56
Standard Error 0.63 1.86
Median 25.66 26.88
Mode #N/A 17.4
Standard Deviation 4.84 14.43
Sample Variance 23.44 208.28
Kurtosis -1.02 -0.92
Skewness 0.13 0.68
Range 16.89 44.72
Minimum 18.03 16.71
Maximum 34.93 61.43
Sum 1540.36 1893.46
Count 60 60
Confidence Level (95. %) 1.25 3.73
To perform t-Test we have taken the null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis as
H0 : There is no significance difference in Urban population ( % of Total population) of India
and China.
H1 - There is a significance difference in Urban population (% of Total population) of India
and China.
Table 4.2.2 t-Test: Paired Two Sample for Means
(Urban Population (% of total Population)
India China
Mean 25.67 31.56
Variance 23.44 208.28
Observations 60 60
Pearson Correlation 0.96
Hypothesized Mean Difference 0
Degrees of Freedom 59
t stat -4.62
P( T<=t ) one-tail 0.00001
t critical one- tail 1.67
P ( T<=t ) two tail 0.00002
t critical two-tail 2.00
Fig 4.2.2 t- Test: Paired Two Sample for Means (Urban Population 5 of Total Population of
India and China
Since, the calculated value of t (- 4.62) is not lying in the acceptance region ( -2.00, 2.00) we
have to reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis that there is a
significance difference in Urban population (% of Total population) of India and China.
4.3 Gross National Expenditure (% of GDP)
Fig 4.3.1 Gross National Expenditure (% of GDP) of India and China
Source: World Bank
Table 4.3.1: Gross National Expenditure (% of GDP)
of India and China
India China
Mean 105.10 97.76
Standard Error 0.36 0.33
Median 105.59 97.62
Mode #N/A #N/A
Standard Deviation 2.78 2.55
Sample Variance 7.72 6.51
Kurtosis -0.69 0.72
Skewness 0.009 0.097
Range 11.99 12.66
Minimum 99.78 91.48
Maximum 111.77 104.13
Sum 6305.94 5865.76
Count 60 60
Confidence Level (95. %) 0.72 0.66
To perform t-Test we have taken the null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis as
H0: There is no significance difference in Gross National Expenditure (% of GDP) of India
and China.
H1 - There is a significance difference in Gross National Expenditure (% of GDP) of India
and China.
Table 4.3.2 t-Test: Paired Two Sample for Means
(Gross National Expenditure (% of GDP)
India China
Mean 105.10 97.76
Variance 7.72 6.51
Observations 60 60
Pearson Correlation -0.012
Hypothesized Mean Difference 0
Degrees of Freedom 59
t stat 14.97
P( T<=t ) one-tail 0.00
t critical one- tail 1.67
P ( T<=t ) two tail 0.00
t critical two-tail 2.00
Fig 4.3.2 t-Test: Paired Two Sample for Means (Gross National Expenditure (% of GDP) of
India and China
Since, the calculated value of t (14.97) is not lying in the acceptance region ( -2.00, 2.00) we
have to reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis that is There is a
significance difference in Gross National Expenditure (% of GDP) of India and China.
4.4 Inflation, consumer Price (annual %)
Fig 4.4.1 Inflation, Consumer Price (annual %) of India
Source - World Bank
Table 4.4.1: Inflation, Consumer price
(% annual) of India
(1961-1990) (1991-2020)
Mean 7.80 7.24
Standard Error 1.14 0.59
Median 8.10 6.50
Mode #N/A #N/A
Standard Deviation 6.24 3.24
Sample Variance 38.93 10.49
Kurtosis 4.02 -1.00
Skewness 0.81 0.53
Range 36.23 10.54
Minimum -7.63 3.33
Maximum 28.60 13.87
Sum 234.05 217.15
Count 30 30
Confidence Level (95. %) 2.33 1.21
To perform t-Test we have taken the null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis as
H0: There is no significance Inflation, Consumer Price (Annual %) of India (1961-1990) nd
India (1991-2020).
H1 - There is a significance difference in Inflation, Consumer Price (Annual %) of India
(1961-1990) and India (1991-2020).
Table 4.4.2 t-Test: Paired Two Sample for Means
Inflation, Consumer price (% annual) of India
(1961-1990) (1991-2020)
Mean 7.80 7.24
Variance 38.93 10.49
Observations 30 30
Pearson Correlation -0.09
Hypothesized Mean Difference 0
Degrees of Freedom 29
t stat 0.42
P( T<=t ) one-tail 0.34
t critical one- tail 1.70
P ( T<=t ) two tail 0.68
t critical two-tail 2.05
Fig 4.4.2 t-Test: Paired Two Sample for Means Inflation, Consumer price (% annual) of
India (1961 - 1990 and 1991-2020)
Since, the calculated value of t (0.42) is lying in the acceptance region (- 2.05, 2.05) we have
to accept the null hypothesis that There is no significance Inflation, Consumer Price
(Annual %) of India (1961-1990) and India (1991-2020).
5. Managerial Implications
While doing this project we have reached at the conclusion that in case of Imports of
Goods and Services (% of GDP) and Inflation, Consumer Price (% annual) there is no
significance difference between India and China at a significance level of 0.05, while in case
of Urban Population (% of Total Population) and Gross National Expenditure (% of GDP)
there is a significance difference between India and China at a significance level of 0.05.
Bibliography
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/ind
https://statisticstimes.com/demographics/china-vs-india-population.php
https://tradingeconomics.com/india/gross-national-expenditure-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html
http://www.igidr.ac.in/conf/money/mfc13/Inflation%20and%20Economic%20Growth%20in%20India_Prasann
a%20and%20Gopakumar_IGDIR.pdf
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.IMP.GNFS.ZS?locations=IN
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.IMP.GNFS.ZS?locations=CN
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS?locations=IN
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS?locations=CN
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.DAB.TOTL.ZS?locations=IN
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.DAB.TOTL.ZS?locations=CN
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG?locations=IN
Appendix I
Imports of Goods and Services (% of GDP)
India China
Year Year Year Year Year Year
1961 5.96 1982 8.14 2003 15.64 1961 3.49 1982 8.67 2003 24.82
1962 6.03 1983 7.85 2004 19.64 1962 2.91 1983 8.40 2004 28.44
1963 5.91 1984 7.73 2005 22.40 1963 2.86 1984 9.51 2005 28.38
1964 5.68 1985 7.65 2006 24.46 1964 2.86 1985 12.38 2006 28.44
1965 5.21 1986 7.02 2007 24.89 1965 3.19 1986 11.17 2007 26.76
1966 6.67 1987 6.98 2008 29.27 1966 3.24 1987 12.38 2008 25.01
1967 5.95 1988 7.46 2009 25.87 1967 2.98 1988 15.68 2009 20.44
1968 4.94 1989 8.15 2010 26.85 1968 2.92 1989 13.26 2010 23.53
1969 4.03 1990 8.45 2011 31.08 1969 2.41 1990 10.66 2011 24.17
1970 3.88 1991 8.49 2012 31.26 1970 2.46 1991 11.46 2012 22.78
1971 4.00 1992 9.59 2013 28.41 1971 2.13 1992 14.49 2013 22.15
1972 3.71 1993 9.82 2014 25.95 1972 2.51 1993 19.35 2014 21.40
1973 4.72 1994 10.19 2015 22.11 1973 3.76 1994 17.23 2015 18.11
1974 6.02 1995 12.02 2016 20.92 1974 5.40 1995 16.32 2016 17.31
1975 6.65 1996 11.54 2017 21.95 1975 4.85 1996 15.89 2017 17.94
1976 6.11 1997 11.93 2018 23.66 1976 4.33 1997 15.04 2018 18.45
1977 6.26 1998 12.68 2019 20.96 1977 4.09 1998 14.08 2019 17.48
1978 6.59 1999 13.36 2020 19.21 1978 5.09 1999 15.36 2020 16.01
1979 8.17 2000 13.90 1979 5.92 2000 18.52
1980 9.25 2001 13.43 1980 6.51 2001 18.22
1981 8.57 2002 15.24 1981 7.45 2002 20.10
Appendix II
Urban Population (% of Total population)
India China
Year Year Year Year Year Year
1961 18.03 1981 23.42 2001 27.92 1961 16.71 1981 20.12 2001 37.09
1962 18.22 1982 23.65 2002 28.24 1962 17.23 1982 20.90 2002 38.43
1963 18.41 1983 23.88 2003 28.57 1963 17.76 1983 21.55 2003 39.78
1964 18.60 1984 24.11 2004 28.90 1964 18.30 1984 22.20 2004 41.14
1965 18.79 1985 24.35 2005 29.24 1965 18.09 1985 22.87 2005 42.52
1966 18.98 1986 24.59 2006 29.57 1966 17.92 1986 23.56 2006 43.87
1967 19.17 1987 24.82 2007 29.91 1967 17.79 1987 24.26 2007 45.20
1968 19.37 1988 25.06 2008 30.25 1968 17.66 1988 24.97 2008 46.54
1969 19.56 1989 25.31 2009 30.59 1969 17.53 1989 25.70 2009 47.88
1970 19.76 1990 25.55 2010 30.93 1970 17.40 1990 26.44 2010 49.23
1971 19.99 1991 25.78 2011 31.28 1971 17.29 1991 27.31 2011 50.51
1972 20.32 1992 25.98 2012 31.63 1972 17.18 1992 28.20 2012 51.77
1973 20.65 1993 26.19 2013 32.00 1973 17.18 1993 29.10 2013 53.01
1974 20.99 1994 26.40 2014 32.38 1974 17.29 1994 30.02 2014 54.26
1975 21.33 1995 26.61 2015 32.78 1975 17.40 1995 30.96 2015 55.50
1976 21.68 1996 26.82 2016 33.18 1976 17.46 1996 31.92 2016 56.74
1977 22.03 1997 27.03 2017 33.60 1977 17.52 1997 32.88 2017 57.96
1978 22.38 1998 27.24 2018 34.03 1978 17.90 1998 33.87 2018 59.15
1979 22.74 1999 27.45 2019 34.47 1979 18.62 1999 34.87 2019 60.31
1980 23.10 2000 27.67 2020 34.93 1980 19.36 2000 35.88 2020 61.43
Appendix III
Gross National Expenditure (% of Total GDP)
India China
Year Year Year Year Year Year
1961 107.92 1981 106.60 2001 102.57 1961 103.38 1981 99.37 2001 97.47
1962 108.73 1982 106.30 2002 101.56 1962 100.59 1982 98.55 2002 97.14
1963 106.12 1983 105.68 2003 101.88 1963 102.92 1983 99.38 2003 97.64
1964 106.41 1984 105.99 2004 104.84 1964 97.55 1984 100.14 2004 97.08
1965 109.19 1985 106.56 2005 105.82 1965 93.76 1985 104.13 2005 94.73
1966 111.77 1986 106.79 2006 104.81 1966 96.61 1986 102.60 2006 92.48
1967 110.24 1987 107.43 2007 107.55 1967 95.05 1987 100.10 2007 91.48
1968 104.42 1988 106.84 2008 105.07 1968 97.79 1988 101.19 2008 92.04
1969 104.85 1989 105.81 2009 107.53 1969 94.22 1989 101.49 2009 95.44
1970 105.29 1990 106.99 2010 105.95 1970 96.77 1990 97.81 2010 95.47
1971 107.56 1991 102.07 2011 106.88 1971 96.85 1991 97.16 2011 96.82
1972 105.74 1992 101.99 2012 105.49 1972 95.53 1992 98.79 2012 97.37
1973 106.97 1993 100.85 2013 101.96 1973 96.41 1993 101.63 2013 98.12
1974 109.48 1994 102.47 2014 102.84 1974 97.13 1994 98.23 2014 98.35
1975 106.18 1995 102.03 2015 101.55 1975 97.03 1995 97.90 2015 97.23
1976 103.94 1996 100.93 2016 99.78 1976 99.04 1996 97.59 2016 97.67
1977 105.06 1997 103.06 2017 100.47 1977 97.12 1997 95.17 2017 97.88
1978 109.24 1998 102.34 2018 102.28 1978 98.32 1998 95.27 2018 98.85
1979 108.12 1999 105.47 2019 102.38 1979 99.19 1999 96.68 2019 99.27
1980 108.58 2000 102.37 2020 100.35 1980 99.29 2000 97.14 2020 98.36
Appendix IV
Inflation, Consumer price (% annual)
India (Pre-Globalization) India (Post Globalization)
Year Year Year Year
1961 1.70 1976 -7.63 1991 13.87 2006 5.80
1962 3.63 1977 8.31 1992 11.79 2007 6.37
1963 2.95 1978 2.52 1993 6.33 2008 8.35
1964 13.36 1979 6.28 1994 10.25 2009 10.88
1965 9.47 1980 11.35 1995 10.22 2010 11.99
1966 10.80 1981 13.11 1996 8.98 2011 8.86
1967 13.06 1982 7.89 1997 7.16 2012 9.31
1968 3.24 1983 11.87 1998 13.23 2013 11.06
1969 -0.58 1984 8.32 1999 4.67 2014 6.65
1970 5.09 1985 5.56 2000 4.01 2015 4.91
1971 3.08 1986 8.73 2001 3.78 2016 4.95
1972 6.44 1987 8.80 2002 4.30 2017 3.33
1973 16.94 1988 9.38 2003 3.81 2018 3.95
1974 28.60 1989 7.07 2004 3.77 2019 3.72
1975 5.75 1990 8.97 2005 4.25 2020 6.62

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Comparative Analysis between India and China based on Imports of Goods and Services(% of GDP), Urban Population(% of Total Population), Gross National Expenditure(% of GDP) and Pre vs Post Globaliazation of India based on Inflation.pdf

  • 1. Comparative Analysis between India and China, Pre vs Post Globalization of India Project Report submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements of the degree of Bachelor of Business Administration by Nirupama Maharana Registration No. 200409120038 Arpita Sardar Registration No. 200409120031 Manpreet Nayak Registration No. 200409120061 Mariam Magdale Kerketta Registration No. 200409120036 Under the supervision of DR. SISIR RANJAN DASH MA, MBA, UGC–NET, Ph. D Assistant Professor, School of Management, Centurion University of Technology & Management, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India SCHOOL OF MANAGMENT CENTURION UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY & MANAGEMENT BHUBANESWAR, ODISHA, INDIA 2022
  • 2. Table of Contents 1. Introduction........................................................................................................3 2. Review of Literature..........................................................................................3 2.1 Imports of Goods and Services:.................................................................. 3 2.2 Urban Population (% of Total Population):................................................. 4 2.3 Gross National Expenditure (% of GDP):....................................................5 2.4 Inflation, Consumer Price (annual %):.........................................................5 3. Research Design................................................................................................ 6 4. Analysis and Findings....................................................................................... 6 4.1 Imports of Goods and Services (% of GDP) of India and China..............7 4.2 Urban Population (% of Total Population)................................................9 4.3 Gross National Expenditure (% of GDP)................................................11 4.4 Inflation, consumer Price (annual %)......................................................13 5. Managerial Implications..................................................................................15 Bibliography........................................................................................................ 15 Appendix I........................................................................................................... 16 Appendix II..........................................................................................................16 Appendix III.........................................................................................................17 Appendix IV........................................................................................................ 17
  • 3. 1. Introduction India and China are the two most populous countries in the world. China and India together account for about 36% of total world population and 67% of Asia population. China and India are both urbanizing rapidly, but China has embraced and shaped the process, while India is still waking up to its urban realities and opportunities. Never before in history have two of the largest nations (in terms of population) urbanized at the same time, and at such a pace. This process will drive fundamental shifts in both countries which will have significant consequences for the world economy as well as on countries Gross National Expenditure, Imports, Inflation etc. and offer exciting new opportunities for investors. Here, in this report we have studied detailed analysis of comparison between India and China on the basis of 3 indicators and a comparison between (1961-1990) & (1991-2020) India on the basis of 1 indicator. All the 4 indicators based on which this report is made are: 1.1 Imports of Goods and Services (% of GDP) 1.2 Urban Population (% of Total Population) 1.3 Gross National Expenditure (GNE), (% of GDP) 1.4 Inflation, Consumer Price (annual %) 2. Review of Literature India and China are the two emerging economies in the world. As of 2021, China and India are the 2nd and 5th largest economies in the world, respectively, on a nominal basis. On a PPP basis, China is at 1st, and India is at 3rd place. Both countries share 21% and 26% of the total global wealth in nominal and PPP terms, respectively. Among Asian countries, China and India together contribute more than half of Asia's GDP. 2.1 Imports of Goods and Services: Imports are the goods and services that are purchased from the rest of the world by a country’s residents, rather than buying domestically produced items. Imports lead to an outflow of funds from the country since import transactions involve payments to sellers residing in another country. Imports of goods and services represent the value of all goods and other market services received from the rest of the world. They include the value of merchandise, freight, insurance, transport, travel, royalties, license fees, and other services, such as communication, construction, financial, information, business,
  • 4. personal, and government services. They exclude compensation of employees and investment income (formerly called factor services) and transfer payments. 2.1.1 Imports of Goods and Services of India: India is number 12 in total imports in the whole world .The top imports of India are Crude Petroleum ($59B), Gold($21.9B), Coal Briquettes ($20.9B), Diamonds ($15.8B), and Petroleum Gas ($13.8B), importing mostly from China ($64.2B), United States ($26.6B), United Arab Emirates ($22.1B), Saudi Arabia ($16.8B), and Iraq ($14.4B). 2.1.2 Imports of Goods and Services of China: China is the number 2 in total imports in the whole world. The top imports of China are Crude Petroleum ($150B), Integrated Circuits ($144B), Iron Ore ($99B), Cars ($42B), and Soybeans ($37.4B), importing mostly from Japan ($133B), South Korea ($131B), United States ($122B), Germany ($106B), and Chinese Taipei ($104B). 2.2 Urban Population (% of Total Population): Among the BRIC countries especially China and India are always a topic of interest for researchers, investors and policy makers. For the past few decades these two countries among the BRIC nations show rapid development and have huge potential to develop in the future. By 2025, nearly 2.5 billion Asians will live in cities, accounting for almost 54 percent of the world’s urban population. India and China alone will account for more than 62 percent of Asian urban population growth and 40 percent of Asian urban population growth from 2005 to 2025. The Asia Pacific Housing Journal published a core idea they tried to illustrate though is that even through the previous fact might be true, India has the ability to gain a lot more in terms of their urban demographic due to the fact that China is aging at a fast rate. The article stresses that two major countries have never urbanized at the same time as much as they are now. 2.2.1 Urban Population of India: In 1950, India was a more urban nation than China 17 percent of the population lived in cities. India to add 215 million to its cities, whose populations will account for 38 percent of the total in 2025. 2.2.2 Urban Population of China: From 1950 to 2005, China urbanized far more rapidly
  • 5. than India, to an urbanization rate of 41 percent, Global Institute expects this pattern to continue, with China forecast to add 400 million to its urban population, which will account for 64 percent of the total population by 2025. The Asia Pacific Housing Journal published an article entitled “Comparing China and India’s urbanization”. The article looked a recent McKinsey Quarterly report on China and India’s urbanization and expanded on the ideas were presented. The author states that China has started to embrace urbanization and are more efficient at doing so compare to India who on the other hand, is just realizing the grand opportunity that awaits. 2.3 Gross National Expenditure (% of GDP): Gross national expenditure (formerly domestic absorption) is the sum of household final consumption expenditure (formerly private consumption), general government final consumption expenditure (formerly general government consumption), and gross capital formation (formerly gross domestic investment). 2.3.1 Gross National Expenditure (% of GDP) of India: Gross national expenditure (% of GDP) in India was 102.38 as of 2019. Its highest value over the past 59 years was 111.77 in 1966, while its lowest value was 99.86 in 2016. 2.3.2 Gross National Expenditure (% of GDP) of China: Gross national expenditure (% of GDP) in China was 99.27 as of 2019. Its highest value over the past 59 years was 104.13 in 1985, while its lowest value was 91.47 in 2007. 2.4 Inflation, Consumer Price (annual %): Inflation is the rate of increase in prices over a given period of time. Inflation is typically a broad measure, such as the overall increase in prices or the increase in the cost of living in a country. But it can also be more narrowly calculated for certain goods, such as food, or for services, such as a haircut, for example. Whatever the context, inflation represents how much more expensive the relevant set of goods and/or services has become over a certain period, most commonly a year. 2.4.1 Inflation in India (1961- 1990): The inflation rate accelerated steadily from an
  • 6. annual average of 1.7% during the 1950s to 6.4 % during the 1960s and further to 9.0 % in the 1970s before easing marginally to 8.0 % in the 1980s. India had generally not experienced runaway inflation. On the other hand, the volatility in the inflation rate, as measured by the coefficient of variation, which was fairly high in the 1950s at 4.4, moved in a narrow band of 0.4–1.0 in the subsequent decades, thus reducing the inflation-risk premium. The pickup in inflation rate from 1970s onwards reflected the impact of a sharp rise in money supply growth and also partly supply shocks from crude oil prices and crop failures. Demand pressures, emanating partly from the widening fiscal imbalances, also contributed to inflationary pressures in the 1980s. 2.4.2 Inflation in India (1991-2020): There is a declining trend in inflation since 1990 in India. Inflation in India has declined steadily from an average of 10.3 % between 1990–1994, to 8.9 % during 1995–1999 and to 4.3 % in this decade. Since 1990, India has experienced average growth rates of around 6% per annum. 3. Research Design i. Objective: The research has been done to make a comparative analysis between India and China based on indicators I.e., Imports of Goods and Services (% of GDP), Urban Population (% of Total Population), Gross National Expenditure (% of GDP). And a comparative analysis between Pre and Post Globalization of India on the basis of Consumer price inflation (annual %). ii. Time Period: For the research purpose data has collected from 1961 - 2020. iii. Source: All the data collected are secondary and the source is World bank. iv. Tools: We have used mean, median, mode, standard error, variance, standard deviation, skewness, kurtosis, range etc. for our research. v. Hypothesis Testing: We have used t-Test: Paired two sample for means for hypothesis testing at a significance level of 0.05. 4. Analysis and Findings
  • 7. 4.1 Imports of Goods and Services (% of GDP) of India and China Fig. 4.1.1 Imports of Goods and Services (% of GDP) of India and China Source: World Bank Table 4.1.1: Descriptive statistics of Imports of Goods & Services of India and China India China Mean 12.84 13.02 Standard Error 1.06 1.05 Median 8.91 13.67 Mode #N/A # N/A Standard Deviation 8.18 8.15 Sample Variance 66.96 66.41 Kurtosis -0.61 -1.14 Skewness 0.87 0.21 Range 27.55 26.31 Minimum 3.71 2.13 Maximum 31.26 28.44 Sum 770.51 781.14 Count 60 60 Confidence Level (95. %) 2.11 2.11
  • 8. To perform t-Test we have taken the null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis as H0 : There is no significance difference in Imports of Goods & Service( % of GDP) of India and China. H1 - There is a significance difference in Import of Goods & Service (% of GDP) of India and China. Table 4.1.2 t-Test: Paired Two Sample for Means (Imports of Goods and Services (% of GDP) India China Mean 12.84 13.02 Variance 66.96 66.41 Observations 60 60 Pearson Correlation 0.86 Hypothesized Mean Difference 0 Degrees of Freedom 59 t stat -0.32 P( T<=t ) one-tail 0.38 t critical one- tail 1.67 P ( T<=t ) two tail 0.75 t critical two-tail 2.00 Fig 4.1.2 t- test: Paired Two sample for Means (Imports of Goods and services % of GDP of India and China) Since, the calculated value of t (- 0.32) is lying in the acceptance region ( -2.00, 2.00) we have to accept the null hypothesis that there is no significance difference in Imports of Goods & Service (% of GDP) of India and China.
  • 9. 4.2 Urban Population (% of Total Population) Fig 4.2.1 Urban Population (% of Total Population) of India and China Source: World Bank Table 4.2.1 : Descriptive statistics Urban Population ( % of Total Population ) of India and China India China Mean 25.67 31.56 Standard Error 0.63 1.86 Median 25.66 26.88 Mode #N/A 17.4 Standard Deviation 4.84 14.43 Sample Variance 23.44 208.28 Kurtosis -1.02 -0.92 Skewness 0.13 0.68 Range 16.89 44.72 Minimum 18.03 16.71 Maximum 34.93 61.43 Sum 1540.36 1893.46 Count 60 60 Confidence Level (95. %) 1.25 3.73
  • 10. To perform t-Test we have taken the null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis as H0 : There is no significance difference in Urban population ( % of Total population) of India and China. H1 - There is a significance difference in Urban population (% of Total population) of India and China. Table 4.2.2 t-Test: Paired Two Sample for Means (Urban Population (% of total Population) India China Mean 25.67 31.56 Variance 23.44 208.28 Observations 60 60 Pearson Correlation 0.96 Hypothesized Mean Difference 0 Degrees of Freedom 59 t stat -4.62 P( T<=t ) one-tail 0.00001 t critical one- tail 1.67 P ( T<=t ) two tail 0.00002 t critical two-tail 2.00 Fig 4.2.2 t- Test: Paired Two Sample for Means (Urban Population 5 of Total Population of India and China Since, the calculated value of t (- 4.62) is not lying in the acceptance region ( -2.00, 2.00) we have to reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis that there is a significance difference in Urban population (% of Total population) of India and China.
  • 11. 4.3 Gross National Expenditure (% of GDP) Fig 4.3.1 Gross National Expenditure (% of GDP) of India and China Source: World Bank Table 4.3.1: Gross National Expenditure (% of GDP) of India and China India China Mean 105.10 97.76 Standard Error 0.36 0.33 Median 105.59 97.62 Mode #N/A #N/A Standard Deviation 2.78 2.55 Sample Variance 7.72 6.51 Kurtosis -0.69 0.72 Skewness 0.009 0.097 Range 11.99 12.66 Minimum 99.78 91.48 Maximum 111.77 104.13 Sum 6305.94 5865.76 Count 60 60 Confidence Level (95. %) 0.72 0.66
  • 12. To perform t-Test we have taken the null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis as H0: There is no significance difference in Gross National Expenditure (% of GDP) of India and China. H1 - There is a significance difference in Gross National Expenditure (% of GDP) of India and China. Table 4.3.2 t-Test: Paired Two Sample for Means (Gross National Expenditure (% of GDP) India China Mean 105.10 97.76 Variance 7.72 6.51 Observations 60 60 Pearson Correlation -0.012 Hypothesized Mean Difference 0 Degrees of Freedom 59 t stat 14.97 P( T<=t ) one-tail 0.00 t critical one- tail 1.67 P ( T<=t ) two tail 0.00 t critical two-tail 2.00 Fig 4.3.2 t-Test: Paired Two Sample for Means (Gross National Expenditure (% of GDP) of India and China Since, the calculated value of t (14.97) is not lying in the acceptance region ( -2.00, 2.00) we have to reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis that is There is a significance difference in Gross National Expenditure (% of GDP) of India and China.
  • 13. 4.4 Inflation, consumer Price (annual %) Fig 4.4.1 Inflation, Consumer Price (annual %) of India Source - World Bank Table 4.4.1: Inflation, Consumer price (% annual) of India (1961-1990) (1991-2020) Mean 7.80 7.24 Standard Error 1.14 0.59 Median 8.10 6.50 Mode #N/A #N/A Standard Deviation 6.24 3.24 Sample Variance 38.93 10.49 Kurtosis 4.02 -1.00 Skewness 0.81 0.53 Range 36.23 10.54 Minimum -7.63 3.33 Maximum 28.60 13.87 Sum 234.05 217.15 Count 30 30 Confidence Level (95. %) 2.33 1.21
  • 14. To perform t-Test we have taken the null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis as H0: There is no significance Inflation, Consumer Price (Annual %) of India (1961-1990) nd India (1991-2020). H1 - There is a significance difference in Inflation, Consumer Price (Annual %) of India (1961-1990) and India (1991-2020). Table 4.4.2 t-Test: Paired Two Sample for Means Inflation, Consumer price (% annual) of India (1961-1990) (1991-2020) Mean 7.80 7.24 Variance 38.93 10.49 Observations 30 30 Pearson Correlation -0.09 Hypothesized Mean Difference 0 Degrees of Freedom 29 t stat 0.42 P( T<=t ) one-tail 0.34 t critical one- tail 1.70 P ( T<=t ) two tail 0.68 t critical two-tail 2.05 Fig 4.4.2 t-Test: Paired Two Sample for Means Inflation, Consumer price (% annual) of India (1961 - 1990 and 1991-2020) Since, the calculated value of t (0.42) is lying in the acceptance region (- 2.05, 2.05) we have to accept the null hypothesis that There is no significance Inflation, Consumer Price (Annual %) of India (1961-1990) and India (1991-2020).
  • 15. 5. Managerial Implications While doing this project we have reached at the conclusion that in case of Imports of Goods and Services (% of GDP) and Inflation, Consumer Price (% annual) there is no significance difference between India and China at a significance level of 0.05, while in case of Urban Population (% of Total Population) and Gross National Expenditure (% of GDP) there is a significance difference between India and China at a significance level of 0.05. Bibliography https://oec.world/en/profile/country/ind https://statisticstimes.com/demographics/china-vs-india-population.php https://tradingeconomics.com/india/gross-national-expenditure-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html http://www.igidr.ac.in/conf/money/mfc13/Inflation%20and%20Economic%20Growth%20in%20India_Prasann a%20and%20Gopakumar_IGDIR.pdf https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.IMP.GNFS.ZS?locations=IN https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.IMP.GNFS.ZS?locations=CN https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS?locations=IN https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS?locations=CN https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.DAB.TOTL.ZS?locations=IN https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.DAB.TOTL.ZS?locations=CN https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG?locations=IN
  • 16. Appendix I Imports of Goods and Services (% of GDP) India China Year Year Year Year Year Year 1961 5.96 1982 8.14 2003 15.64 1961 3.49 1982 8.67 2003 24.82 1962 6.03 1983 7.85 2004 19.64 1962 2.91 1983 8.40 2004 28.44 1963 5.91 1984 7.73 2005 22.40 1963 2.86 1984 9.51 2005 28.38 1964 5.68 1985 7.65 2006 24.46 1964 2.86 1985 12.38 2006 28.44 1965 5.21 1986 7.02 2007 24.89 1965 3.19 1986 11.17 2007 26.76 1966 6.67 1987 6.98 2008 29.27 1966 3.24 1987 12.38 2008 25.01 1967 5.95 1988 7.46 2009 25.87 1967 2.98 1988 15.68 2009 20.44 1968 4.94 1989 8.15 2010 26.85 1968 2.92 1989 13.26 2010 23.53 1969 4.03 1990 8.45 2011 31.08 1969 2.41 1990 10.66 2011 24.17 1970 3.88 1991 8.49 2012 31.26 1970 2.46 1991 11.46 2012 22.78 1971 4.00 1992 9.59 2013 28.41 1971 2.13 1992 14.49 2013 22.15 1972 3.71 1993 9.82 2014 25.95 1972 2.51 1993 19.35 2014 21.40 1973 4.72 1994 10.19 2015 22.11 1973 3.76 1994 17.23 2015 18.11 1974 6.02 1995 12.02 2016 20.92 1974 5.40 1995 16.32 2016 17.31 1975 6.65 1996 11.54 2017 21.95 1975 4.85 1996 15.89 2017 17.94 1976 6.11 1997 11.93 2018 23.66 1976 4.33 1997 15.04 2018 18.45 1977 6.26 1998 12.68 2019 20.96 1977 4.09 1998 14.08 2019 17.48 1978 6.59 1999 13.36 2020 19.21 1978 5.09 1999 15.36 2020 16.01 1979 8.17 2000 13.90 1979 5.92 2000 18.52 1980 9.25 2001 13.43 1980 6.51 2001 18.22 1981 8.57 2002 15.24 1981 7.45 2002 20.10 Appendix II Urban Population (% of Total population) India China Year Year Year Year Year Year 1961 18.03 1981 23.42 2001 27.92 1961 16.71 1981 20.12 2001 37.09 1962 18.22 1982 23.65 2002 28.24 1962 17.23 1982 20.90 2002 38.43 1963 18.41 1983 23.88 2003 28.57 1963 17.76 1983 21.55 2003 39.78 1964 18.60 1984 24.11 2004 28.90 1964 18.30 1984 22.20 2004 41.14 1965 18.79 1985 24.35 2005 29.24 1965 18.09 1985 22.87 2005 42.52 1966 18.98 1986 24.59 2006 29.57 1966 17.92 1986 23.56 2006 43.87 1967 19.17 1987 24.82 2007 29.91 1967 17.79 1987 24.26 2007 45.20 1968 19.37 1988 25.06 2008 30.25 1968 17.66 1988 24.97 2008 46.54 1969 19.56 1989 25.31 2009 30.59 1969 17.53 1989 25.70 2009 47.88 1970 19.76 1990 25.55 2010 30.93 1970 17.40 1990 26.44 2010 49.23 1971 19.99 1991 25.78 2011 31.28 1971 17.29 1991 27.31 2011 50.51 1972 20.32 1992 25.98 2012 31.63 1972 17.18 1992 28.20 2012 51.77 1973 20.65 1993 26.19 2013 32.00 1973 17.18 1993 29.10 2013 53.01 1974 20.99 1994 26.40 2014 32.38 1974 17.29 1994 30.02 2014 54.26 1975 21.33 1995 26.61 2015 32.78 1975 17.40 1995 30.96 2015 55.50
  • 17. 1976 21.68 1996 26.82 2016 33.18 1976 17.46 1996 31.92 2016 56.74 1977 22.03 1997 27.03 2017 33.60 1977 17.52 1997 32.88 2017 57.96 1978 22.38 1998 27.24 2018 34.03 1978 17.90 1998 33.87 2018 59.15 1979 22.74 1999 27.45 2019 34.47 1979 18.62 1999 34.87 2019 60.31 1980 23.10 2000 27.67 2020 34.93 1980 19.36 2000 35.88 2020 61.43 Appendix III Gross National Expenditure (% of Total GDP) India China Year Year Year Year Year Year 1961 107.92 1981 106.60 2001 102.57 1961 103.38 1981 99.37 2001 97.47 1962 108.73 1982 106.30 2002 101.56 1962 100.59 1982 98.55 2002 97.14 1963 106.12 1983 105.68 2003 101.88 1963 102.92 1983 99.38 2003 97.64 1964 106.41 1984 105.99 2004 104.84 1964 97.55 1984 100.14 2004 97.08 1965 109.19 1985 106.56 2005 105.82 1965 93.76 1985 104.13 2005 94.73 1966 111.77 1986 106.79 2006 104.81 1966 96.61 1986 102.60 2006 92.48 1967 110.24 1987 107.43 2007 107.55 1967 95.05 1987 100.10 2007 91.48 1968 104.42 1988 106.84 2008 105.07 1968 97.79 1988 101.19 2008 92.04 1969 104.85 1989 105.81 2009 107.53 1969 94.22 1989 101.49 2009 95.44 1970 105.29 1990 106.99 2010 105.95 1970 96.77 1990 97.81 2010 95.47 1971 107.56 1991 102.07 2011 106.88 1971 96.85 1991 97.16 2011 96.82 1972 105.74 1992 101.99 2012 105.49 1972 95.53 1992 98.79 2012 97.37 1973 106.97 1993 100.85 2013 101.96 1973 96.41 1993 101.63 2013 98.12 1974 109.48 1994 102.47 2014 102.84 1974 97.13 1994 98.23 2014 98.35 1975 106.18 1995 102.03 2015 101.55 1975 97.03 1995 97.90 2015 97.23 1976 103.94 1996 100.93 2016 99.78 1976 99.04 1996 97.59 2016 97.67 1977 105.06 1997 103.06 2017 100.47 1977 97.12 1997 95.17 2017 97.88 1978 109.24 1998 102.34 2018 102.28 1978 98.32 1998 95.27 2018 98.85 1979 108.12 1999 105.47 2019 102.38 1979 99.19 1999 96.68 2019 99.27 1980 108.58 2000 102.37 2020 100.35 1980 99.29 2000 97.14 2020 98.36 Appendix IV Inflation, Consumer price (% annual) India (Pre-Globalization) India (Post Globalization) Year Year Year Year 1961 1.70 1976 -7.63 1991 13.87 2006 5.80 1962 3.63 1977 8.31 1992 11.79 2007 6.37 1963 2.95 1978 2.52 1993 6.33 2008 8.35 1964 13.36 1979 6.28 1994 10.25 2009 10.88 1965 9.47 1980 11.35 1995 10.22 2010 11.99 1966 10.80 1981 13.11 1996 8.98 2011 8.86
  • 18. 1967 13.06 1982 7.89 1997 7.16 2012 9.31 1968 3.24 1983 11.87 1998 13.23 2013 11.06 1969 -0.58 1984 8.32 1999 4.67 2014 6.65 1970 5.09 1985 5.56 2000 4.01 2015 4.91 1971 3.08 1986 8.73 2001 3.78 2016 4.95 1972 6.44 1987 8.80 2002 4.30 2017 3.33 1973 16.94 1988 9.38 2003 3.81 2018 3.95 1974 28.60 1989 7.07 2004 3.77 2019 3.72 1975 5.75 1990 8.97 2005 4.25 2020 6.62