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Crop adaptation processes to extreme
floods in Bangladesh: a case study
Md Aboul Fazal Younus
ab
a
School of Social Sciences, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide,
South Australia 5005, Australia
b
School of the Environment, Flinders University, Bedford Park,
South Australia 5042, Australia
Published online: 01 Dec 2014.
To cite this article: Md Aboul Fazal Younus (2015) Crop adaptation processes to extreme floods in
Bangladesh: a case study, Environmental Hazards, 14:1, 36-53, DOI: 10.1080/ 17477891.2014.986041
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2. Crop adaptation processes to extreme floods in Bangladesh: a case study
Md Aboul Fazal Younusa,b*
a
School of Social Sciences, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia; b
School
of the Environment, Flinders University, Bedford Park, South Australia 5042, Australia
(Received 25 February 2014; accepted 6 November 2014)
This paper investigates farmers’ crop adaptation processes in response to three recent
devastating floods in Islampur, a case-study area in rural Bangladesh. The paper reports a
multi-method research project which comprised a questionnaire survey, focus-group
discussions and interviews with agricultural block supervisors. The author analyses three
recent severe floods in Bangladesh, occurring in 1988, 1995 and 1998, and reviews the
adaptation techniques and strategies embraced by the same group of farmers in order to
survive the more devastating inundations that occur from time to time. The study concluded
that vulnerable farmers are highly resilient and, with appropriate support, their adjustments
can be sustainable. This enquiry showed that in the face of climate change both the
inclusion of autonomous adaptations into planning and policy-making and the enhancement
and support of community-based adaptation can be effective in ensuring the survival of
riverine farming systems. This case study can be considered as a key reference case in
regard to vulnerable locations in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna mega-delta basin,
particularly in respect to Bangladesh.
Keywords: autonomous crop adaptation; extreme floods; Kharif 2; IPCC; GBM
Introduction and statement of the problems
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has recently made serious predictions
about the increased risk of floods in Bangladesh with climate change (cf CDKN, 2014), these are:
. Low -lying and densely populated coastal areas in South Asia, including Bangladesh and
India, will be at increased risk of storm surges, putting many millions of people at risk
(IPCC, 2014a, 2014b).
. Riverine, coastal and urban floods linked to extreme rainfall events, rising sea level and
cyclones could cause widespread damage to infrastructure, livelihoods and settlements.
The risk of floods, and loss of life and property associated with floods, is the highest in
India and Bangladesh (IPCC, 2014a, 2014b).
These are alarming forecasts. The Indo-Gangetic Plain of South Asia, particularly the
Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna (GBM) River Basin, would be ‘at risk’ due to increased flooding
in the future. The IPCC (2014a, 2014b) warned that ‘In a low crop productivity scenario … Ban-
gladesh would experience a net increase in poverty of approximately 15% by 203’ (Hijioka et al.,
© 2014 Taylor & Francis
*Emails: md.younus@flinders.edu.au, md.younus@adelaide.edu.au, younusmaf@yahoo.com
Environmental Hazards, 2015
Vol. 14, No. 1, 36–53, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17477891.2014.986041
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3. 2014, p. 1349). This report added ‘Yields of some crops … . decrease … in the Indo-Gangetic
Plain of South Asia’ (Hijioka et al., 2014, p. 1344). Hijioka et al. (2014) also added some key
warnings: ‘Sea level rise threatens coastal and deltaic rice production areas in Asia, such as
those in Bangladesh’ (p. 1345); ‘Flood risk and associated human and material losses are
heavily concentrated in ..Bangladesh … ’ (p. 1346); ‘Increases in floods … will exacerbate
rural poverty in parts of Asia as a result of negative impacts on the rice crop and resulting
increases in food prices and the cost of living’ (p. 1331); ‘With higher precipitation, flooding
could also lead to lower crop production’ (p. 1344).
The above-mentioned quotations indicate the following:
(1) approximately 15% poverty would increase due to low crop production;
(2) crop yield would be decreased in the Indo-Gangetic Plain;
(3) sea-level rise threatens crop production in coastal and deltaic Bangladesh;
(4) flood risk causes serious havoc and includes severe human and material losses;
(5) floods will exacerbate rural poverty and decrease crop production, hence the resulting
price of food and the cost of living would be increased;
(6) higher precipitation would create frequent extreme flooding and result in lower crop
production.
The IPCC (2014a, 2014b) also recognized some aspects of adaptation mechanisms in South
Asia. As reviewed by CDKN (2014), these are:
(1) adaptation will bring immediate benefits and reduce the impacts of climate change in
South Asia;
(2) adaptation is fundamentally about risk management;
(3) South Asia has many adaptation options;
(4) international cooperation is vital to avert dangerous climate change and South Asian gov-
ernments can promote ambitious global action.
As a low-lying vulnerable country of south Asia, Bangladesh faces all three of these chal-
lenges. In the book Global Change and Integrated Coastal Management in the Asia-Pacific
Region, Harvey (ed. 2006) explored issues regarding the mega-deltas, particularly the GBM
River Basin. In Chapter 10, Woodroffe, Nicholls, Saito, Chen, and Goodbred (2006, p. 277)
stated: ‘ … megadeltas appear particularly vulnerable to impacts as a result of any change in
sea level and other global change’, a point made by previous researchers such as McLean and
Tysban (2001), and Kremer et al. (2005). Broadus (1993) estimated that in Bangladesh a rise
in sea level of one metre would cause inundation of 7% of habitable land and affect 5% of the
population. Additionally, such a rise would lead to a 5% fall in gross domestic product. A predic-
tion by Brammer (1993) emphasized that the impact of increased flood levels in mid-delta areas
would have profound adverse implications for the population of the GBM system. Hence, Ban-
gladesh is identified as one of the countries most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. On
the one hand, there will be increased frequency and severity of flooding along with decreased crop
production, and on the other hand farmers’ adaptation capacity will be decreased with each
extreme flood and its after-effects (Stern, 2006).
The vulnerability and adaptation (V & A) guidelines, which have been formulated by the
IPCC, United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) and the United States Country Study
Program for fulfilling the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, have high-
lighted the need to know the autonomous adaptation processes in various economic sectors under
the present climatic regime as well as under future climate-change conditions. The consequences
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4. of failure to adapt, particularly in the agricultural sector, might have great implications for future
climate-change research (Burton, Smith, & Lenhart, 1998; IPCC, 2014a, 2014b; Parry, Carter, &
Konijin, 1988; Parry & Carter, 1989; UNEP, 1993; UNEP & IES, 1996). Therefore it is important
to understand the process by which primary producers automatically adapt their methods in
response to extreme floods.
Agricultural adaptations in most developing countries are autonomous; that is, changes in
approaches to crop cultivation are made automatically by farmers and mostly depend on the fea-
tures and conditions of the natural environment. Because flooding is part of the regular agricul-
tural cycle in many parts of Bangladesh, farmers with land prone to annual inundation have
developed strategies for dealing with floods which exceed the tolerance levels of their crops.
These strategies are termed ‘autonomous adaptations’ and refer to the ways in which farmers
cope with adversity. This research investigated three types of autonomous adaptation – in-
built, routine and tactical – in the context of normal flood events, and more specifically with refer-
ence to the devastating floods in 1988, 1995 and 1998. The project examined these three forms of
autonomous adaptation by measuring the adjustment capacity of Bangladeshi farming systems in
response to extreme flood events (EFEs). Stage (2010) identified two types of adaptation: auton-
omous adaptation and planned adaptation. ‘Autonomous adaptation refers to adaptation decisions
that are not made by government agencies … decisions that are made by private firms and house-
holds in order to adjust to the realities of climate change’ (Stage, 2010, p. 151). In this research,
autonomous adaptation refers only to individual farmers’ decisions in response to the severity of
the flood characteristics: that is, the time, duration and depth of the flood.
Autonomous adaptations ensure that cropping patterns are in a sympathetic relationship with
flooding characteristics. Different land types (bottomland: permanently wet; lowland: >180 cm;
medium lowland: 90–180 cm; medium highland: 0–90 cm and highland: 0) (see details in
Figure 2, Column 1) accommodate different flood depths and for different durations each year,
and farmers adjust their cropping systems to accommodate the characteristics of flooding. The
changes that are made can be seen as an autonomous process which occurs automatically in
response to flooding. Autonomous adaptations such as changes in crop varieties, soil manage-
ment, tillage, planting schedules and irrigation are also important in limiting negative effects
from severe climate-induced events such as flooding. The autonomous adaptation process is
one of the fundamental determinants of the farmers’ coping capacity under prevailing flood con-
ditions. It is also a determinant of changes in cropping patterns and thus has implications for the
potential change of agricultural land-use in Bangladesh.
It is forecasted in recent studies that the frequency and magnitude of flooding will be affected
by climate change (Lal, 1994; Lal, Harasawa, & Murdiyarso, 2001; Lal & Aggarwal, 2000;
Mirza, 2002; Mirza, Warrick, & Ericksen, 2003), and the adaptation capacity will become increas-
ingly poor as a consequence of frequent adverse climatic hazards in the region (Huq, Rahman,
Konate, Sokona, & Reid 2003; Stern, 2006; Younus, 2007; Younus & Harvey, 2014). Thus,
the climate-change scenario is threatening to significantly affect the autonomous adaptation
capacity of farmers around this region.
Several publications have focused on land use, farmers’ practices and flood disaster manage-
ment issues in Bangladesh. Montgomery (1985) analysed flood trends and crop loss. In order to
feed a growing population, farmers always depended on natural adaptation processes. Different
agricultural institutions contributed by breeding high-yielding crop varieties as well as varieties
tolerant of such environmental hazards as salinity, stagnant water, drought, arsenic toxicity and
floods (Brammer, 2010).
Two factors regulate agricultural land-use in Bangladesh: farmer’s behaviour and biophysical
factors. It is important to consider flooding and land-use pattern inseparable while assessing future
V & A issues using autonomous adjustment tactics. Flood characters impact on land use in two ways:
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5. (1) biophysically – the duration, area, frequency and depth of flooding and the nature of pre-
cipitation influence the opportunities and limitations for crop types and cropping patterns
in the season of kharif 2 (the crop period extending from July to November, and occupy-
ing most of the monsoon season; please see further details in Figure 2) and the transition
period between kharif 2 and rabi (the period extending from the beginning of the reces-
sion of flood water to the time before farmers start planting International Rice Research
Institute (IRRI) boro/high yielding variety (HYV) boro);
(2) behaviourally – farmers’ perception of changes occurring in local environment is the
ultimate factor influencing the land-use decision. Other factors also affecting the
decision-making include market demands, prices, individual competition, structure,
cost of communication network, etc.
The climate-change literature on autonomous adaptation and the V & A assessment guidelines
provide little guidance on these biophysical and behavioural aspects in order to understand
autonomous crop adaptations in Bangladesh.
Major problems
The important issues identified from the above discussion are:
. the Bangladeshi agricultural sector will be at risk if the high population growth continues
and if the autonomous adjustment process fail to regulate the potential of agricultural
land-use and the level of vulnerability;
. the failure effects of autonomous adjustments would be intense;
. characteristics of the flooding are an important regulatory force for cropping adjustments.
In order to address these issues, this paper focuses on:
. an assessment of the likely changes in agricultural vulnerability and farmers’ thresholds to
flood vulnerability in Bangladesh as a consequence of climate change;
. the processes of farmers’ crop adjustment to EFEs.
Research gaps
Notable research gaps have been identified from the findings of the literature review and discus-
sion. These are:
. There is insufficient literature relating to adaptation processes and development in response
to flooding in the context of Bangladesh.
. There is insignificant literature relating to farmers’ autonomous cropping adjustments in
response to floods.
. In the context of the GBM River Basin, there are very few substantial studies to explore
farmers’ decision-making and autonomous coping mechanisms in response to floods.
. There are not many significant in-depth studies of community-based adaptation.
Research questions
The above discussion raises several general questions. What is the relationship between
adaptation and development as described in the literature on climate change? Are these factors
reciprocal? What is the capacity of Bangladeshi farming systems to implement autonomous
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6. adjustment processes in the event of extreme floods? How do millions of Bangladeshi subsistence
farmers adjust to the great floods? What is the threshold at which autonomous adjustment
processes become impossible? Is it important to understand this threshold for future commu-
nity-based adaptation planning?
Research objectives
In order to address these questions, this research had two main objectives as follows:
Objective 1: To examine the concept of ‘adaptation’ vis-a-vis ‘autonomous adaptation’ within the
broad context of climate change in order to understand its importance in V & A assessment.
Objective 2: To examine the autonomous cropping adjustment processes of farmers in response to
biophysical interactions with flooding in order to understand the impact and severity of EFEs on
communities.
The author employed a multi-method research comprising a questionnaire survey, focus-
group discussions, field observations, interviews with agricultural block supervisors, group inter-
views with local farmers and an in-depth case study in order to identify community-based crop
adaptation processes.
In order to understand community-based autonomous crop adaptations in the case study area
of Islampur (Figure 1), a crop-adjustment process under normal flood conditions was examined.
This is detailed in the first section of this paper. The second section examines crop-adjustment
processes under EFEs.
Crop adjustments to normal floods in Islampur
Issues relating to normal flood adjustments in Islampur are:
(1) the typical cropping pattern in a normal flooding situation;
(2) autonomous adjustment strategies adopted by the farmers in normal flooding conditions.
Islampur’s location on the right bank of the Jamuna river ensures that it is affected by floods
every year. This area is also affected by the Old Brahmaputra river which flows on the other side
(northeast) of the region. The farmers who were surveyed occupy various land types: very
lowland, lowland, medium lowland and medium highland (see details in Figure 2, Column 1).
About 87% of farmers possessing very lowland identified their land as particularly vulnerable
to flooding under normal conditions. Sixty-two percent of farmers who owned lowland said
that their land is highly vulnerable to normal flooding, while 36% noted that their land is moder-
ately vulnerable. Fifty-five percent of owners of medium/lowland identified their land as moder-
ately vulnerable to floods in normal years, while 42% noted that their land is highly vulnerable.
Most of those possessing medium/highland (83%) reported that their land was not vulnerable to
flooding under normal situations (Younus, 2001).
The most significant determinant of crop damage is the timing of floods because it regulates
the patterns of crop damage on various land types. Timing of harvesting, maturation of seedlings
and quality of grain all depend on the timing of each flood. For instance, floods appearing at the
end of June (middle of asharh) (ashaŗh, a Bengali month which lasts from 15 June to 17 July),
when farmers have already transplanted aman, will not allow farmers to replant HYV aman, as
there would not be enough time for maturation of the crop. In this situation, they do not have
options other than planting the local variety. Usually, farmers stop planting HYV aman by the
middle of asharh, and harvesting is carried out in November and December; that is, at the end
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7. Figure 1. The location of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna River Basin and the location of case-study
area (Islampur).
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8. of ogrohayon (Ogrôhayôn, a Bengali month which lasts from 17 November to 16 December). If
flooding occurs later in the season, at the end of September when HYV aman starts to mature,
farmers would not be able to replant any aman at all. Timing, depth and duration of each flood
are important regulatory factors in crop flood adjustment in the case-study area.
Crop combinations in the mauzas and unions (mauza means lower administrative unit; a dis-
trict is divided into upazilas; an upazila is divided into unions; a union is divided into several
mauzas or villages) differ according to type of soil, land type, capacity of soil to store water,
nature and distribution of alluvium and land with or without embankments. During the months
from June to mid-October floods play a dominant role in farmers’ crop selection and combination.
There are 47 varieties of crops which are sensitive, either directly or indirectly, to floods in the
upazila of Islampur.
Figure 2. Rice and wheat crop calendar in relation to seasonal flooding, rainfall and temperature.
Source: Ahmad, Warrick, Ericksen, and Mirza (1996, p. 15).
42 M.A.F. Younus
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9. As in the rest of the country, the crop calendar of Islampur comprises three broad categories
and two transition periods. The crop calendar (Figure 2) is as follows:
(1) Kharif 1: this period extends from early March to mid-July, and this includes the pre-
monsoon and early monsoon seasons. The main crops of this period are kaun (foxtail
millet), jute, aus (pre-monsoon rice), broadcast aus (local) and transplanted aman
(local or HYV).
(2) Kharif 2: this period extends from July to November (Bengali months Shraban to kartik)
and comprises most of the monsoon season. The main crops of this season are the trans-
planted HYV aman, transplanted local aman, broadcast local aman, mixed aman (mixed
aus and aman) and aus.
(3) Transition between Kharif 2 and Rabi: this is the period extending from the beginning of
the recession of flood water to the time before farmers start planting IRRI boro. The major
crops of this season are potatoes, chilli, oil seeds and onions.
(4) Rabi: The period between November and February (Bengali months ogrohayon to magh),
when the major crops of this season are HYV boro, local boro, wheat, peanut, mustard
and sugarcane.
Crop patterns and crop decisions in Islampur
In flood-prone areas like Islampur, the selection of crops is largely regulated by flood timing,
depth, duration and frequency. Other factors contributing to crop selection are the water-
storage capacity of the soil, type of land (char-land or mainland) and type of soil (sandy,
loamy and alluvial). The crop selections of kharif 2 mostly depend on timing and duration of
floods. Farmers tend to plant aman in combination with other crops in almost all crop seasons
because aman is well adapted to flooding. Flood characteristics regulate whether farmers
would plant HYVaman, or transplant HYVaman or a local variety of aman in the kharif 2 crop-
ping season. Farmers prefer to plant wheat on the higher lands.
In the medium/highland (uchan jomi), farmers tend to plant HYVaman, a variety which takes
about 150 days to mature (i.e. from planting to harvesting). This period can be divided into five
stages:
(1) planting and germination – 30 days required;
(2) early growth (aroggo cal) – 10 days;
(3) growing period (baronto cal) – 45 days;
(4) emergence of rice ears (kaitch thor) – 5 days;
(5) harvesting (korton cal) – comprising the next 30 days, when the rice ears start to mature,
and the last 30 days when farmers harvest.
Planting, growing, maturing and harvesting are the critical phases for aman production at the
period of the kharif 2 cropping season. Aman is one of the main crops which are adapted to flood-
ing, and it meets farmers’ food demands over the year. The production cost of aman is lower than
IRRI boro. Aman can be planted in any land type except for very lowland or in soil with low
water-storage capacity. Aman cannot be cultivated in some of the char-land areas or in sandy
soils. Therefore aman is the crop of choice for the farmers of Islampur.
The farmers know very well how to maximize crop production from their small pieces of land.
They have the experience, knowledge and skill to get the highest return from the land. Whatever
type of land they possess, they aim for maximum production and economic return. One of their
strategies to ensure full utilization of land is, after harvesting aman, to plant onions, chilli or
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10. potatoes because these cash crops mature rapidly and thus are ideal in the transition period. They
provide farmers with the money needed for IRRI boro crop production during rabi. However, if
farmers plant oil seeds during the transition period they miss the opportunity to plant IRRI boro in
rabi, as oil seeds take longer to harvest. Instead, they plant wheat once the oil seeds are harvested.
In that case, farmers then prefer to plant jute or aman instead of aus in the next cropping season,
kharif 2. During group discussions with farmers (Younus, 2001) it was noted that more than four
days of rain on oil-seed beds ruins the crop with the result that farmers cannot plant anything else
in that land in the transition period, as there is not enough time to harvest any crop before rabi.
Islampur farmers plant IRRI boro in medium/highland during rabi, after which they usually
plant aus. Successful harvesting of three crops (aman local/HYV, IRRI boro and aus) in one year
is difficult because of erratic rainfall, uncertainty regarding floods, insect outbreaks, etc. In very
lowlands (naimla jomi) aman and aus cannot be harvested as crop inundation occurs; instead,
farmers plant IRRI boro during rabi or use those lands for producing cash crops, such as sugar
cane and chilli. The crop combination depends on the type of land and the particular crop
desired. If farmers plant sugar cane, the associated crops would be chilli and potatoes.
Different crop combinations are found in the char-land. Farmers usually plant the lentils mug
kalai or kheshari kalai in association with broadcast aman or planted (buna) aman. Buna aman is
usually planted with kheshari kalai and broadcast aman with other seed crops such as mash-
thakuri or shona-mug. After planting the seed crops farmers harvest the buna aman crop.
When they plant kalai (one type of lentil) in association with aman, and in some cases if they
want to plant jute in the next season, they cannot harvest kalai because of the time constraint,
so they use kalai leaves as green vegetables or fodder crops for livestock (Younus, 2001).
In some low-lying areas aus and deep-water aman are still planted together. Once aman is
mature and harvested the aus then grows, tolerating the rising height of regular flood waters.
However, this practice is almost obsolete as farmers now tend to plant HYV aman and other
cash crops in order to get higher cash returns.
Sand deposition usually occurs during flood recession. In these sandy lands farmers prefer to
plant sugar cane instead of aman or boro as the water-storage capacity of this land is poor and
unsuitable for aman or boro. The char-lands are more dependent on transition crops such as
onions, which are sometimes grown as a major crop if aman is ruined by flooding.
Crop adjustments in response to the 1988 flood
The 1988 flood (from 25 August to 23 September; further details in Figure 3) was a single-peak,
high-volume flood which occurred in the middle of kharif 2 at a time when aman was already
planted and attaining maturity. It was evident from focus-group discussions, interviews and
responses provided by the local block supervisors (SAAO) that the flood arrived suddenly and
receded relatively quickly (Younus, 2001). The agricultural land was flooded within 6–12
hours and homesteads within 24 hours. This is supported by hydrological data at the stations
of Bahadurabad and Jamalpur and by the rainfall data collected at Muktagacha and Sharishabari.
Characteristics of the 1988 flood were:
(1) a high-volume, single-peak event;
(2) it occurred when aman plants were attaining maturity;
(3) the depth of the flood was beyond the flood-tolerance threshold of aman plants;
(4) the duration of the flood was also beyond the flood-tolerance capacity of aman crops;
(5) heavy local downpours resulted in significant run-off into rivers, which in turn, caused
havoc and human displacement;
(6) the flood water receded rather quickly.
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11. As a consequence, farmers were left with about 60 days of the kharif 2 cropping season. In this
situation, they adopted a strategy that was different from the strategy they adopt during a normal
flood in early kharif 2. Instead of planting HYVaman most planted a local variety of aman. Most
farmers who possessed medium highland opted for HYV because the floodwaters receded faster
from these lands, so providing more time for maturation of re-planted aman. It should be noted
that according to local farmers the HYVaman takes longer for maturation compared with the local
aman variety. HYVaman may not be photoperiod-sensitive as local aman varieties are, and that is
the reason why they mature later. Also local seedlings are easily available and can be grown with
little fertilizer. Note that local T. aman varieties also have longer seedlings so they can be planted
in deeper water than short HYV seedlings, which is an advantage after a flood.
Crop adjustments in response to the 1995 flood
According to the information provided both by the hydrological data and the respondents, the
1995 flood occurred between 29 June and 20 July, but in some areas it continued into early
August (Younus, 2001). This is the period of kharif 2 when the plants are still seedlings, and
in some places it overlapped with the end of the harvesting period of kharif 1.
The characteristics of the 1995 flood were:
(1) it occurred when the seedlings – either HYVor a local variety of aman – were becoming
established;
(2) the water depth was below the level of the 1988 flood;
Figure 3. Cropping seasons and the 1988, 1995 and 1998 floods in Islampur.
(Source: Younus, 2001, p. 73).
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12. (3) the flood depth exceeded the danger level for fewer days (evidenced by hydrological data
from Bahadurabad ghat and respondents’ information);
(4) it was a moderate flood in comparison to the 1988 and the 1998 floods.
Farmers still had about 90 days of the kharif 2 cropping season left after recession of the flood
waters and this allowed a successful aman harvest. They re-planted aman (mainly the HYV
variety), as there was still adequate time for the plants to grow to maturity. Thus they took a cal-
culated risk in terms of crop production in 1995.
Crop adjustments in response to the 1998 flood
According to the farmers, the 1998 flood was the most devastating flood they had ever witnessed
(Younus, 2001). It was a multi-peak flood and washed out planted crops three times; on two
occasions the HYV aman was washed away, and the local variety was destroyed once. It com-
menced during the harvesting of kharif 1 and continued until the crop maturation period of
kharif 2 (approximately from 11June to 30 September).
The characteristics of the 1998 flood were:
(1) it was a deep, multi-peak event;
(2) it caused the loss of a substantial period of the kharif 2 cropping season. In fact, farmers lost
the period of seedling growth and maturation up to the mid-period of phase 2 (Figure 3);
(3) farmers attempted to re-plant aman at least three times between the peaks;
(4) each time the re-planted aman was washed out by another peak;
(5) farmers were faced with an unprecedented challenge where all their ingenious adjustment
strategies failed.
The autonomous adjustment threshold was exceeded in the 1998 floods resulting in the loss of
almost all of the kharif 2 harvests. Some desperate farmers planted aman for the fourth time in the
transition between kharif 2 and rabi, though they knew that there was not enough time remaining
for maturation of this crop.
Farmers of five unions – Chinaduli, Noapara, Sapdhari, Belgacha and Kulkandi – were asked
how many times floods inundated their land. Most respondents answered that their crops had been
washed out at least three times and their homesteads at least once (Box 1). The depth of flood
water ranged from 0.34 to 2.13 metres depending on the type of land, and the frequencies of
peak flooding were erratic. Two mauzas of Islampur, Panchabahala and Panchbaria, were less
affected by this flood and had relatively fewer flood peaks. The local roads acted as embankments
although they could not protect the land from flooding, the agricultural land being inundated two
or three times.
Box 1. The pain of three flood peaks
‘This was an unexpected flood and I had not seen this kind of devastating flood (gojobi ban) ever before
in my entire life. The flood came three times and washed out the planted crops three times twice high
yielding varieties and once the local one. You look at the last crop gainja, a local crop variety.
Nothing will be returned from it’ – Mr Hossain, a farmer aged about 45 years, from Panchabahala
village (Younus, 2001).
As revealed from focus-group discussions, each peak of the flood in 1998 lasted for about seven days and
the depth of water was higher than the height of the standing crops during the peaks. Therefore, farmers
lost their crops completely three times.
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13. Some findings from farmers’ responses to the 1998 flood can be summarized from Younus
(2014).
(1) Commencing in June, farmers planted HYV aman twice before the onset of flooding.
(2) Floods caused damage to the crops three times.
(3) HYVaman was planted for the second time at the beginning of August when floodwaters
receded sufficiently to enable seedlings to be planted again.
(4) After the crops were washed out again they planted aman for the third time in the last
week of August, this time mainly using the local variety.
(5) The fourth attempt was made to plant aman (the local variety named gainja) in some
areas in mid-September. Even though the maturation period in 1998 was severely shor-
tened, farmers did this as a desperate move to grow some rice.
It is important to understand why farmers chose to use a local variety instead of HYV and
how they managed to obtain the seeds. First, they thought that they might get at least some
crop production from planting a local variety of aman, and second, there were survival issues
for themselves as well as for their cattle. This plant would at least serve as a source of straw
for cattle even if there was crop failure. Farmers chose local variety aman as they knew that
there was not enough time for HYV aman to mature (Box 2). In the aftermath of flood, HYV
seedlings are not available and the local variety seedlings, though available, are scarce and
very expensive compared to the price in normal period. Brammer (1999) found that the
farmers usually purchase seedlings from elsewhere instead of their own sources; this is a wide-
spread practice.
Box 2. Post-flood plantings: seedling cost
The farmers’ comments during group discussions provided useful details.
My homestead (one inverted v-shaped roof made of tin which is divided into three rooms) was
flooded and I stayed on the machang (usually located under the roof, farmers use the machang as a
storeroom) for at least seven days. It also happened a second time. Bhai (brother), during the whole
inundation period I had tried to plant crops. I had a small crop of gainja, which did not even cover
what I paid for seedlings. Even in better land in Belgacha there was a very poor crop of gainja in
1998. (Mr Ali of Belgacha in Islampur).
It was evident that the total return from the crops was not even equal to what farmers paid for the seedlings.
For example, the total cost of planting gainja was approximately 900 taka per bigha including cost for
pesticide and fertilizer, whereas the crop production was 750 taka per bigha (Younus, 2001).
Purchase of seedlings proved to be a critical aspect in kharif 2:
(1) there were insufficient seedlings to meet the farmers’ demand. They had to take the
trouble of collecting the seedlings (gainja, haloi and kater) from distant places, mainly
upstream areas;
(2) this suggests that the farmers were not prepared for a multi-peak flood at that time;
(3) farmers were unsure about the quality of collected seedlings and were confused as to
whether they would have satisfactory production;
(4) they were unsure whether they would obtain returns from their crops sufficient to meet the
cost of the seedlings.
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14. According to the farmers three things ensure the quality of a crop:
(1) the quality of seedlings;
(2) seedlings of a reasonable height;
(3) normal conditions associated with growth of seedlings.
It is not possible to get mature seedlings locally after the EFE but they can seek spare seed-
lings from areas not affected by flood. Because of late planting, the seedlings were neither good
enough nor mature enough and individual plants were unable to stand without the support of
grasses. Farmers pointed out that when they tried to get rid of the grasses to facilitate better
crop production, the seedlings fell over.
In the group discussions the farmers expressed their anguish, saying that they did not
receive any assistance or subsidies from the government for collecting seedlings, not even
the third time when they had already lost standing crops twice in the same season, not
have any stored seeds of the local variety and they were not prepared to plant the local
variety. Some had to borrow money at high rates of interest from local businessmen; others
borrowed from matbars (rich landlords) but had to promise half of their future crop. Some
had to borrow money from their wives – if their wives had saved little amounts over long
periods of time.
The farmers said that in the case of severe floods, particularly floods with multiple peaks, they
would expect help from the government. Surprisingly, they did not ask for monetary help; rather
they spoke of the need for communal seed beds and proposed that the government could help by
providing government-owned highlands (such as land beside rail lines) for this purpose. As one
farmer recalled,
In the old days we had other local kinds of aman, like shobaraj, bagha, chonda, boro digha, hash
kolom, ponkhiraj, kartic jhula, roga jhula, echa kuri and so on, which used to survive within the upris-
ing of flood water in a rhythmic way. They are all gone now. (Younus, 2001)
Farmers’ decisions about planting crops are influenced by community decisions. They
usually meet one another in bazars, tea stalls, outside Matbar’s house, in mosques or on
their way to these places; these meetings provide the opportunity to exchange views and
take advice from older farmers. This plays a significant role in their crop decision-making.
They usually elect to plant the same crops in the same kind of land, and they share infor-
mation regarding where good-quality seeds or seedlings are available, where good-quality fer-
tilizers and pesticides are available at a cheaper price, what fertilizers to use and in what
amounts, etc. Sometimes they obtain useful assistance from local block supervisors. There
are many other reasons behind these community crop decisions; for example, if someone
grows a different type of crop there is a possibility that it could be very successful or, con-
versely, that it might be infested by pests or attacked by birds and rats. It is evident that com-
munity membership and interaction play a major role in farming decisions by individual
farmers, and at the same time their decisions are affected to some extent by advice from pro-
fessional people, such as block supervisors, union parishad members and school teachers. For
example, during the post-flood period, the cost of onion seeds was so high that only affluent
farmers could afford them, so marginal farmers had no other option than to plant cheaper
crops like oil seeds and kalai. In spite of that, most marginal farmers opted for onion
growing as this is more profitable (Box 3). They did not hesitate to borrow money at high
interest to purchase onion seeds.
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15. Box 3. Experiments in adjustment in late Kharif 2 following the 1998 Flood
Some farmers in Panchbaria village in Islampur planted HYVaman on an experimental basis once flood
water receded. The crops showed very slow growth and poor maturation. Additionally, the colour of the
rice was reddish instead of green and there was infestation with unusual pests despite the use of fertilizer
and pesticides. It was late in the kharif 2 cropping season, and farmers said that the colder environment with
fluctuations of temperature, particularly in the mornings, was not suitable for optimum growth of the crop.
In 1998, due to the unprecedented nature of the flooding, farmers tried to plant some cash crops such as
chilli, onion, oil seed, eggplant, potato and kalai in the transition period between kharif 2 and rabi once
the flood water receded. As they lost kharif 2 production, they did not have significant rice to ensure
survival until the next crop production. They were looking forward to some production from cash
crops to meet the production costs, including agricultural inputs of boro or wheat in the next season
and at the same time to be able to purchase food for survival up to next harvest.
Though some of the farmers planted oil seeds as a cash crop in this transition period, due to erratic rainfall
they were unsuccessful because oil seeds need favourable soil moisture balance for proper growth and
maturation. Other cash crops such as chilli and onion need almost similar soil moisture, so in this
situation these crops were also difficult to grow. Farmers commented that the erratic rainfall made the
soil unsuitable for cultivation of potatoes as well.
Similarly, the char-land farmers planted kalai after the recession of initial flood water. These crops were
destroyed by either heavy silt deposition or sand deposition. Farmers in the silt-deposited area prepared to
plant onions and potatoes but the sand-deposited land is not suitable for these crops. They said that they
would grow nuts in the sandy land later in the season. They had a bumper production of onions in the
char-lands after the 1998 floods (Younus, 2001).
Conceptual model of adjustments
A conceptual diagram (Figure 4) shows that during the 1988, 1995 and 1998 floods farmers tried
their best to adapt to the extreme conditions, and as a result of their efforts the impacts of the
floods were reduced. It is noted that due to the application of adaptation techniques the impact
trend is forced downward. It also shows that because of the multiple peaks and long duration
of the flood in 1998 the farmers’ adaptation capacity collapsed, and as a consequence the
impact trend shows a sharp rise. Repeated flood events that push farmers to the edge of the adap-
tation threshold and have impacts beyond the reach of their adaptation capacity, ultimately reduce
their adaptation threshold and subsequently make them even more vulnerable. This paper indi-
cates that if this happens repeatedly in the future farmers’ adaptation thresholds will become
very low; the consequences of failed adaptation are huge, and they will be unable to cope with
even normal flooding (Younus & Harvey, 2013, 2014).
Summary and recommendations
In this study, the process for adjusting crops in response to three EFEs (in 1988, 1995 and 1998)
was assessed, each flood event and its characteristics were identified, and the adjustments to crop-
ping regimes under normal flood situation in Islampur were discussed. How farmers adapt to
floods within the normal seasonal cycles in Islampur, and the normal crop decisions for
various land types were discussed with references to farmers’ responses and field observations.
Regarding the multiple and longer duration floods as experienced in 1998, some key agricul-
tural issues emerged, which are as follows:
(1) the number of times farmers planted seedlings;
(2) the types of seedlings used;
(3) the reasons farmers chose HYV seedlings instead of local varieties in the first two
attempts;
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16. (4) the reasons for choosing local varieties of aman seedlings in the third and fourth attempts;
(5) how farmers gathered gainja and kater seedlings from suppliers upstream and the quality
of those seedlings;
(6) how farmers afforded expensive seedlings and the sources of that money;
(7) A few farmers planted BR 12 (a new HYV) rice after the flood, although they realized that
this variety was not suitable for late planting, but they did so in the hope of obtaining
some production;
(8) Community leaders and local influential people/economically solvent people who are
aware of the price of different crops and likely profits make the crop decisions at first,
usually taken in informal discussions in haat/bazaar/tea stall. Marginal farmers are
greatly influenced by this decision, as they do not want to be singled out or face the
risk of taking any individual decision against the mass decision.
This study of the 1998 floods and the ways farmers responded provides important background
information about various types of adaptation. To summarize, farmers planted HYV aman after
flood water receded the first time; that is, they responded with their routine adaptation. In the
face of further crop damage in the same cropping season, they planted a local variety of aman
because of its shorter maturation period; that is, they adopted a tactical adaptation process.
When the standing crops were damaged the third time the remaining growing period in the
kharif 2 season was very short, but farmers were desperate for some production to ensure
survival. Some of them planted aman for the fourth time despite knowing that there were no guar-
antees of crop maturation or a successful harvest. This is a prime example of an in-built adaptation
process.
This autonomous crop adaptation processes in response to different types of extreme floods in
the case-study region of Islampur are an example of a community-based, micro-level study in
Figure 4. Conceptual diagram of impact and adaptation in response to three floods.
50 M.A.F. Younus
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17. Bangladesh. It is relevant to note that other micro-level adaptation processes are applied in differ-
ent agro-ecological zones in Bangladesh, and these should be understood in order to respond to
the predicted impacts of climate change. It is necessary to incorporate micro-level autonomous
adaptations in planning and policy-making in order to enhance and support community-based
adaptation to ensure sustainable development in future.
This study concludes that the types of adaptation applied by vulnerable farmers (and taking
into account the type and nature of such extreme floods) should be thoroughly understood by agri-
culture policy-makers at both local and national levels because these types of adaptation measures
can act as a guide to the adaptation measures which need to be recommended and supported by
local government authorities especially Sub Assistant Agriculture Officers (SAAO) (formerly
Block Supervisors), along with the local Agricultural Officers also interviewed in the present
study who recommended adaptation procedures suited for various flood durations and depths
and relevant agencies in order to reduce vulnerability to future floods. A future paper will deal
with further details on their contribution and instructions received from higher authorities.
Reports by SAAO should reach senior policy-makers, which seldom occurs presently. It is essen-
tial to understand local community-level adjustment processes, as these are fundamental for
understanding V & A assessment, as well as evaluating the failures of autonomous crop adaption,
and once this is known it can be employed to ensure sustainable adaptation strategies.
Acknowledgements
This paper was presented in a conference on water and climate: policy implementation challenges, practical
responses to climate change, held in Canberra, 1–3 May 2012, organized by the Engineers Australia, http://
www.climatechange2012.org/index.asp?IntCatId=14. It has been further revised.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.
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