Post-Mugabe Scenarios for Zimbabwe

1. October 2017
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Zimbabwe’s Post-Mugabe Liberation
Struggle
2018 and beyond
The purpose of this document is to help those who love Zimbabwe, to support those
who want to see Zimbabwe liberated. It explains the political economy of Zimbabwe.
It outlines the future scenarios that Zimbabwe will face in 2018 and beyond. It makes
recommendations to church leaders, civic activists and thoughtful leaders from
across Zimbabwean society, such as teachers and civil servants, academics and
community organisers, on what needs to be done to rescue and rebuild Zimbabwe.
Sections:
1. The Political Economy of Zimbabwe
2. Future Scenarios for Zimbabwe
3. A Strategic Response by Civil Society
4.Steps to Liberation

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1. The Political Economy of Zimbabwe
The image below sets out the political economy of Zimbabwe, as it stands in 2017,
under the decades-long rule of the ZanuPF under the authoritarianism of Robert
Mugabe. The image represents the political, economic and social spheres, and
provides a framework for assessing their interconnections. In particular, the power-
relations between the political, elites, business elites and the rest of society.
Zimbabwe, under Robert Mugabe, has spiraled into a authoritarian
dictatorship, with quasi-democratic institutions, masking a repressive one-
party state.
The ZanuPF, through decades of uncontested rule, have succeeded in co-opting
(red) all major institutions of the state, including the police, the military, the legislature
and partially the judiciary as well. Over time, this has produced a political
arrangement where the super-presidency, a totalitarian monarchy in all but name,
have crushed the autonomy, independence and executive decision-making of
government, turning these domains into extensions of the party. This has been
achieved by escalating the hard and soft power of the central intelligence, the CIO,
through intimidation, extra-judicial use of force, violence and others forms of
psychological warfare on the citizens and opponents of the regime. Although the
judiciary is partially independent, and claims to adhere to the legal framework and
constitution of the country, in practice the courts have been accommodative of the
regime’s excesses and unable to rise to the occasion to a maintain separation of

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powers.
As a consequence the political process in Zimbabwe has been fraught with state
repression that undermines the freedom and fairness of the electoral process, and
the use of freedom of speech by opposition parties. Over time, this has produced a
cautious, fractured, paranoid and weakened opposition. Although many in the civil
service are secretly critical of the regime, the body politic in government is paralyzed
by the combination of historic loyalty to the party and liberation icon, and the very real
prospect of a loss of income, loss of freedom and violence that may follow dissent.
The regime, having spectacularly mismanaged the economy for decades, has
needed to capture the parastatals and all major industries to sustain the octopus of
patronage that has emerged under its leadership. As a consequence the economic
sphere of Zimbabwe is increasingly beholden to corrupt gate-keepers and who make
the ethical trade-off between self-preservation and sound business practice. This has
produced a range of skewed market conditions where imported goods are funneled
through crony plutocrats, to informal and formal vendors who sustain allegiances
though facilitation fees or bribes. Perversely, this has produced a phenomena of
“night buying” where citizens are forced to use evasive means to transact and
exchange goods and services. Large players in agriculture and mining are able to
maintain a facade of independence, by ensuring that their political overlords are held
at bay through underhanded incentives.
The above convergence between political power and economic power, amid a
cancerous collapse of advanced industry, has meant that citizens have drifted into a
survivalist mode of hand-to-mouth modes of employment, trade and community
based survivalism. Formal civil society structures such as the churches have found
themselves both disempowered by the sheer degree of the regime’s impunity and at
times been complicit in creating the conditions for the status quo by discouraging the
criticism of public office holders and protecting their corruption in the process. In
extreme cases clergymen and woman have been complicit in the economic grab that
has occurred across industry. This has weakened the Church as institution and
paralyzed civil society more broadly. NGOs, having to navigate the reigime’s scrutiny
and their own resource constraints, have been unable to address the massive
systemic social issues in health and poverty that have resulted from the above, while
also not having the political influence to affect change.
Citizens, vocal on social media and fatigued by years and years of steady
decline in incomes, living standards and having their hopes deferred, have
resorted to cynicism and mockery. In some quarters grassroots organizations and
associations have coalesced around shred issues such as low pay, poor conditions,
lack of access to basic necessities and mistreatment by traffic police and others rent-
seeking bureaucrats. This has created a climate within which social movements have
begin to find traction and have begun to lead to various forms of protest, civil
disobedience and even violence.
The international community influence Zimbabwe’s political economy both negatively
and positively. The massive (+-3 million) Zimbabweans living in South Africa, the
million or so in Europe and the USA and hundreds of thousands elsewhere, sustain
many of the countrymen back home with remittances. In spite of this obvious
hollowing out of the country due to domestic dysfunction and abuse by the regime,
the international community has been slow and ineffective in pressurizing the regime

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to change tact. It is believed that some actions by the likes of the British government
have propped up the regime, while the likes of China and Russia have, through
opaque business dealings with the state, enabled the regime.
2. Future Scenarios for Zimbabwe
The aforementioned conditions result in a negative trajectory for Zimbabwe’s national
future. In the years 2018, 2019 and beyond, there are major systemic uncertainties
that will alter the trajectory of the nation in fundamental ways. These include; a
congress by the ruling ZanuPF, a national election in 2018, the likely passing of more
than one prominent political leader in Zimbabwe and growing factionalism and
succession battles within the ruling party.

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The citizens of Zimbabwe face the triad-challenges of a (i) fractured civil-society, a
(ii) repressive regime and an (iii) increasingly extractive economy in the
immediate short and medium term. These have to be addressed and overcome,
while navigating the turbulence likely to arise from the aforementioned changes in the
political economy. As a result, four distinct scenarios emerge:
Scenario A (top right): The first scenario is one where a viable democratic
alternative emerges for Zimbabwe and is able to harness the 2018 elections to
seize power. This would not immediately improve conditions for citizens, but
would present an significant opportunity to reconfigure the policy-environment,
recommit the country to the rule of law and begin to dismantle the now-
entrenched authoritarianism culture of impunity that has gripped the state.
Scenario B (right): In this scenario the ZanuPF is able to retain power and an
authoritarian alternative emerges to Robert Mugabe, such as Grace Mugabe.
The likelihood is that in all respects the country will continue on the same path
of decline and regression under this scenario, while an increasing focus by the
state of “command industry”, state-led interventionism and crony corruption,
would mark the economic environment.
Scenario C (bottom right): This scenario represents an environment where
the political centre of Zimbabwe fractures entirely and the country descends
into anarchy and chaos. The power vacuum produced by the departure of
Mugabe leads to running street-battles between fed-up youths and unpaid
police officers that no longer have loyalty to a national structure of any kind. In
this scenario regional overlords are likely to emerge as personalities in the
military, the police, power-brokers in the political establishment and panicked
citizens all contest for self-interest and survival. The outcome is likely to be a
failed, fractured state, rapidly reverting to pre-colonial identity- and ethnic
politics.
Scenario D (bottom): In this scenario the current uncertainty over the use of
bond notes and interventionism economics precipitates another economic
meltdown reminiscent of the 2007-2008 crisis. Hyper-inflation, capital flight,
mass migration of skilled Zimbabweans and shortages in food, fuel and money
for exchange drives the social fabric to the brink. Wholesale looting and
destruction of property, particularly in urban centers would follow. The scenario
ends with a AU, (practically South African) peace-keeping force permanently
deployed to Zimbabwe.
3. A Strategic Response by Civil Society
It will not be good enough for civil society in Zimbabwe to identify and protest on the
grassroots issues faced by citizens. These are crucial to mobilizing civil society, but
will not in and of themselves bring about systemic change. Instead, the citizens of
Zimbabwe need to be given hope, and inspired to regain their voice in addressing the
regime and calling for change. To do so, civil activists will need to demonstrate
incredible courage to model to citizens how to express their discontent in non-violent
ways.

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All forms of civil collaboration, gathering, organization and mobilization is needed to
raise the accountability and transparency of the government back to democratic
levels, to push back against the abuse of power and the departure from the rule of
law. Citizens will have to put pressure on the regime and the state to again
ensure property rights, foundational to a functioning economic environment
and free enterprise.
What Zimbabwe needs is a vehicle to lead change. This must take the form of:
A Movement of Christians, who by their actions, inspire hope in others
by;
- Amplifying their Voice
- to Bring a Change in Government
- to Rebuild Zimbabwe.
Such a movement, must be guided by a vision of:
Redeeming the Government, through a movement of people towards;
- Good Governance
- for a Just and Prosperous Society.
*As opposed to striving to bring down the government, or regime change, the
institutions of the state must be placed under pressure to reform, to commit to a
change in government, without which a change of government is a last resort.
Such a movement’s approach must be to:
Appeal to the hearts, the feelings of despair, frustration, anger,
disappointment, and exhaustion and betrayal of citizens, to take action
and demand change. While the regime has demonstrated a carelessness and
impunity, the citizens can be mobilised by turning their feelings into concrete
action, to demand the liberation or re-building of Zimbabwe.
Such a movement must become a force to shepherd the people, and
mobilise them towards non-violent and constructive engagement with the
power holders in both politics and business, with civil servants and gate
keepers in the regime.
Strategic Agenda:
A key strategic step in the reconstruction of Zimbabwe, once the citizenry have been
activated, is the formation of a viable political alternative to ZanuPF. This is crucial,
not only because the ruling party has failed the citizens, but because the presence of
a viable alternative introduces the competitive politics crucial to ensuring better
governance. Importantly, the Church in Zimbabwe, through a self-reflective process
of repentance and confession, must regain her moral voice and authority, and insist
on the responsible leadership required of the opposition and ruling party politicians.
Once this has been achieved, and a constructive political milieu created, the
movement must engage in creation of long term economic reforms and policy reform
for reconstruction a the grassroots level, to reshape the extractive system now so
deeply entrenched.

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Steps to Liberation:
For Zimbabwe to recover from the throws of the abuse of power, crony corruption
and extraction that has gripped the country, the following strategic actions will need
to be undertaken and coordinated:
1. Send out a call to the “Friends of Zimbabwe’s Liberation from Tyranny” in the
institutions of the Police, the Military, the Legislature and the Judiciary, that
the time for change has come.
2. Define the super-presidency of Robert Mugabe for what it has become: a
totalitarian monarchy, a failed ineptocracy.
3. Demand the restoration of the autonomy and independence and executive
decision-making of government’s various spheres.
4. Redefine ZanuPF as a political party, not a state or legitimate representation
of the people. Drive home the difference between democracy and
majoritarianism, which is what ZanuPF has used as a cover for tyranny.
5. Alienate the CIO and other intelligence services from the legitimate use of
force by the state, by rebuilding the public’s sense of right not to be spied on
by their state.
6. Launch a global awareness campaign of the stories of the intimidation, extra-
judicial use of force, violence and other forms of psychological warfare used
on the citizens and opponents of the regime.
7. Create a movement of social commentary on the regime’s excesses to turn
public opinion against all forms of abuse of power for personal gain.
8. Build stronger linkeages with the international community on the observation
of the electoral processes planned for 2018.
9. Use freedom of speech to contrast the arbitrary abuses of the state with the
dreams and aspirations of the people.
10. Facilitate the formation of a new opposition front, not merely of political
parties, but of national consensus around the values, constitutional principles
and goals around which Zimbabwe ought to rally.
11. Remind those who prop up the regime of the probable future of loss of
freedom and violence that may follow growing dissent, if reforms are not
undertaken.
12. Identify the points of worst corruption and mismanagement in state owned
enterprises and launch a defiance and accountability campaign against the
representatives and administrators of these entities.
13. Align with international networks that will be able to uncover the global
interlinkages between the domestic patronage networks and their
international friends and counterparts and pressurize these counterparts by
embarrassing them through the publication of their associations.

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14. Drive a campaign against any church or religious association that is
demonstrating support of the regime, using their theological tradition against
them and pressurizing them to take a moral and ethical position on issues.
15. Conduct a stakeholder analysis of the NGO and civil society scene, ranking
each stakeholder by “level of activism” and core competency.
16. Use the aforementioned stakeholder analysis to formulate a united front that
is pro-Zimbabwean recovery and clearly articulate an anti-Campaign that is
broad enough to have broad appeal.
17. Call a national day of prayer and repentance by the churches, to publically
renounce injustice, by commission and omission, and to call on political and
business leaders to follow suit.
18. Conduct a bi-weekly and bi-monthly assessment of the “greatest issues of
public discontent” in the news-cycle. Track these with a view to develop
anticipatory communication, on the basis of which to align interest groups
around various issues.
19. Form a network of expat and diaspora community activists, to pressurize
countries, companies and any international organizations with lineages to the
regime – using the freedoms elsewhere to highlight the freedoms at home. If
you cannot march on state house, march on the white house.
20. Work to unite civil society.
21. Work to undermine an illegitimate regime.
22. Work to formulate a new economic path for Zimbabwe.
23. Create a national movement for land-related reconciliation, which seeks to
reformulate the narrative of land dispossession to one of human-rights
centered justice. Only if the undercurrent of historic injustice and the
perpetuation of a cycle of injustice is adequately aired through dialogue and
conciliation, can the undermining effects of this loaded issue be put to rest.
24. Formulate a Truth and Reconciliation Process for supporters of the regime,
the party and state institutions that were used for repression, to offer a way
out of condemnation to reconciliation for those who were caught op in the
abuses of the regime.
“The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends towards justice.”
Martin Luther King Jr.
May God restore justice to Zimbabwe.