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APPLICATION OF ANALYTIC APPROACHES REAL
ESTATE DEVELOPMENT RISK ASSESSMENT.
Sukulpat Khumpaisal1
and Zhen Chen2
School of Built Environment, Liverpool John Moores University
Liverpool, United Kingdom
Abstract : Thailand real estate development sector is vulnerable from risks and their
consequences. Risks in real estate business are mostly caused by Social, Technological, Economic,
Environmental and Political (STEEP) factors, which are occurring around the real estate business
sector. However, Thai real estate developers do not have the efficient methods such as the
systematic risk assessment tools and the practical risk management techniques to deal with the
risks. The expected outcome of this research are; firstly to investigate the need of risk assessment
models, introduce the novel analysis approaches to support real estate developers in decision-
making to deal with potential risks in each project development stages. Finally, this research
suggests the new managerial technique to deal with the consequences of risk. The researcher aims
that this research will contribute the comprehensive risk management guidelines for Thai real
estate developers to deal with the fluctuation of global economic situation.
Keywords: Real Estate Developers, Risk assessment, Risk Management, Small and Medium
Enterprises, STEEP
INTRODUCTION
The global economic crisis in 1997th
, impacted by the downfall of Thailand’s economic
system, the main factor led to the collapse of the nationwide economic system was from the
regression of the real estate development sector. As found by Lauridsen (1998), and
Quigley (2001), the role players in Thailand’s real estate sector, both financial institutions
and the developers were lack of monetary disciplines, negligence of risks in real estate
business sector. Moreover, they also short of knowledge in assessing risk, risk mitigation
and the practical risk managerial techniques to response to the consequences of risks.
Focus on the current situation of Thailand real estate development, there are some severe
factors terrifying this business sector such as the increase of fuel price, the fluctuation of
loan interest and currency exchange rate, the impact from government policy and affect
from the international crisis, for example the Sub-prime crisis in United State of America
Vanichvatana (2007). Meanwhile, Pornchokchai (2007) states that despite Thai developers,
experience the 1997th
crisis, and acknowledge the main reasons of that crisis, however, they
are still less concerning in risk and the consequences of risk affect to their developed
projects. It is because of lack of appropriate knowledge to assess, identify or understanding
of those risks and their consequences, and they only require a maximum return from their
investment without considering on risks in each project stages.
The aforesaid problems arise some scholastic predictions toward the future of Thailand real
estate development, as Vanichvatana (2007) and Kritayanavaj (2007) insist that the future
trend of Thailand real estate business would be similar to the incidents before the 1997th
crisis,
1
Mphil/PhD Student, School of Built Environment, Liverpool John Moores University
2
Senior Instructor, School of Built Environment, Liverpool John Moores University

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because the risks response methods not yet established. Cycle of economic crisis would be
repeated according to the lack of concern in risks and factors impact by the real estate
developers.
Even the developer experience the past economic crisis and also acknowledge the
reason of the crisis. However, the practical risk assessment and risk managerial
techniques are not initiated in Thailand real estate sector, the developers are less
prepare of any assessment or mitigation methods, they are still suffering by the
consequences of risks affected to their projects. It is therefore assume that the
developers need the tools to assist them to drive their business to survive in the risk
and competitive full scenarios.
The mentioned problems in Thailand real estate business, inspire the researcher to set
up the innovative risk assessment methods as well as suggest the new technique to
deal with the risk and consequences of risk to the Thai real estate developers. The
objectives of this research are: firstly, constructing and suggesting the practical risk
management guideline for real estate developers and practitioners; secondly implement the
novel decision-making support models to be used as the risks assessment models for real
estate developers in order to encourage them with the appropriate tool to handle the risks
involved in their projects. Finally, this research also aims to investigate the possible causes
of risks embedded in the Thailand real estate development process.
The expected outcome of this research will be the innovation standards for assessing
the real estate development risks, and the developed standards shall become the useful
tools towards the further risk mitigation and assist the developers to survive in the
risk-full and competitive era.
RISKS IN REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENT
Risk occurring in real estate development projects must be considered and should not
be underestimated, risks affect to the project management processes, in regard to
project programme delay, project cost overrun and quality of products. Those risks are
involved in all real estate development projects, and they also have strongly influence
to the related progresses at all stages of the entire properties lifecycle. For example,
those risks can occur at initial stage of a project when the developers conduct
feasibility study, design and planning, bidding and tendering, construction, or even
during marketing or handover period, as well as risks existing in initial stage also
influence the property utilization.
Risks in this real estate development business being caused by many factors,
according to Morrison (2007) the factors related to project development are Social,
Technological, Economical, Environmental and Political (or “STEEP”), and they
occur in the form of both quantitative or subjective. Those risks could be prevented or
mitigated if the developers are considering on the risks, including understand how to
assess risks, and their consequences, thus the developers are able to mitigate and
manage the risks affected to their projects.
Impacts of risks in the real estate development processes are illustrated by the results
of Dutch real estate development business survey, conducted in 2006. Those results

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specified that most developers considered that the project risks are caused by several
subjective causes such as policy change, the resistance/opposition of administrative
machinery, the objection against the building plan by a citizen and change in
environmental legislation. Therefore, those will result in delay of the project with
many indirect consequences, such as increase of interests, change in design and
postponement of construction start, which lead to delay of completion date as well as
affect to the real estate marketing process, and the project revenue in the following
manners: “decrease in rental/sale price, decrease in velocity of sales, cause a higher
vacancy rate and lower investment value”. (Gehner, et. al, 2006)
Focusing on Thailand real estate business, Kritayanavaj (2007) states that most of real estate
developers in small or medium enterprises (or “the developers”) underestimate the
consequences of risks. Since they have lack of adequate knowledge to assess, identify or
understanding of those risks and their consequences, and they only require a maximum
return from their investment without considering on risks in each project stages. Thus, the
developers, particularly in the small or medium size enterprises did not prepare any
assessment or mitigation methods because of the risk assessment criterion did not establish
in a systematic or measurable methods. For example, in the case of risk caused by the
housing policy change, the ill-prepared developers are not able to identify and assess the
risks. Therefore, they transfer the risks to their customers to suffer the consequence of risks
such as increasing house prices or rental prices, deducting quality materials, or change the
instalment’s conditions. Those might affect real estate pricing structure wholly, burden the
customers’ affordability and investors could suspend their investment (Pornchokchai, 2007,
and Office of the National Economic and Social Development, 2007). Otherwise, it is also
found that the major source of risk in Thailand real estate context is caused by the
speculation in this business, particularly from the ordinary people who have no knowledge
and concern in markets and economic situation; they lack market knowledge and are
careless in their decision making. It is because of they need only the maximum profit from
the speculation obsession, and ignore obvious warning signals and less their desire to
understand the risk and consequence involved in this business. Pornchokchai (2007)
In addition, risks occurred in real estate development scheme lead to the nationwide or even
more to the continental economic collapse, for example, the Global Economic Crises
(Bubble Burst) was happened in Thailand 1997. Lauridsen (1998) and Quigley (2001)
indicate that the major cause of this crises was led by the negligence of risks in real estate
business sector, it is because of the financial institutions (lender) injected the huge loan to
the real estate developers without any considerations on risk. The performance of loan and
the capabilities to repay loan of the developers, as well as less knowledge or the practical
tool to assess the risks in real estate development business. Lauridsen (1998) investigates
that Thailand economic crises commenced by the fluctuation in real estate loan as:
“An investment bubble of careless lending was created. A substantial part of the money was
channeled into already inflated assets in the real estate sector. During 1992-96, a total of
755,000 housing units were built in Bangkok, which was double the estimate in the national
plan. Loans from financial institutions to property developers increased, too. In 1993, the loans
totaled 264 billion baht but by March 1996 they had gone up to 767 billion baht, of which 45%
stemmed from finance companies and 54% from commercial banks.”
(Lauridsen, 1998, pp. 1576)
Vice versa, even the developers understand and recognize all risks and their
consequences, which involved in the real estate development projects. However, they

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do not have adequate knowledge or appropriate method to assess all risks. In the
current practice, for example, the hotel investment project (Younes, et. al., 2007), the
developer employ the “Risk Matrix” as the risk assessment method. However, this
method has some disadvantage such as firstly, data or information used in this
calculation are derived from either panel discussion or ranking method which mostly
rely on personal opinion rather than using the quantitative measurements, or using the
reliable tools or instruments with strong theoretical basis. Secondly, this model does
not allow the comparison of each criteria, it only measures the risk and their
consequences on single criteria basis, which is not suit to the developers’ requirements
in the case of understanding the correlation and affects between each factors.
In order to assess the risks occurring in real estate projects, it is suggested to use the practical
tools, which could analyze risks, their impacts and computed the results in a numerical format,
which enable to use in the real business case. Booth, et. al (2002) and Frodsham (2007)
supported that the desirable methodology for this business should allow for the synthesis of
the risk assessment criterion, comparisons of each factors and to help the managerial level to
structure the decision- making process. Therefore, the risk management processes shall
include an assorted mix of “Quantitative statistical framework” as well as several techniques
such as stress testing and a rigorous analysis of subjective issue and risk assessment process in
the real estate development shall be supported by the modern method of mathematical
statistics. Booth, et. al (2002) In the existing business sphere, there are several decision-
making support models, which are implemented to use such as Analytic Network Process
(ANP), Belief Bayesian Networks or any business simulation models. However, those models
did not specially focus on risk assessment, but they were developed for other business
requirements, even a method such as ANP is effectiveness enough to deal with use as the
supporting models for risks assessment as states by Chen and Khumpaisal (2008).
According to a lack of the practical risk assessment methods in the real estate business as
mentioned above, it is therefore assumed that the developers are in need of alternative risk
assessment methods which are based on the Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for risks
assessment in real estate development. This research aims to introduce some novel decision-
making approaches to risks assessment in real estate development against the established
criteria. The multi-criteria decision-making model implemented in this research are based on
Analytic Network Process (ANP) (Saaty, 2005), together with the Belief Bayesian Network
theoretical framework. Bayesian Belief Network, the logic based decision-making supporting
model is proved in its efficiency to deal with risk in construction projects. According to
Khalafallah (2002), he develops the Bayesian Belief Network to estimate the risk and
contingencies associated with residential projects in Egypt. His risk-contingency model
developed based on experts' opinions, and his model could estimate the suitable contingency
percentage. As well as Hastak and Shaked (2000) as cited by Khalafallah (2002), they
developed a model for international construction risk assessment with 73 risk indicators to
assess the risk involved in an international construction operation.. Their implementations
of Bayesian Belief Network inspire the researcher to apply this model toward risk
assessment in real estate project and aim to develop this model to suit with Thailand real
estate development contexts.
To achieve the objective of this research, the central questions therefore, being raised
as the framework to guideline the researcher to maintain overall research’s objectives.
Central questions herein, are raised in regard to how to establish the systematic risk
assessment standards for real estate developers, which is practical to use in the real

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business. In addition, the decision-making supporting models such as Analytic
Network Process (ANP) or Bayesian Belief Network shall support these standards.
The results analysed from these models shall be reliable, effective enough to apply for
the real business.
The contribution of this research is to introduce an innovative risk assessment based
on the principles of the decision-making supporting models to Thailand real estate
development business. Risk assessment criteria will be modified in accordance with
the definitions of STEEP factors and will be further developed based on Thailand real
estate business situation and the country’s contexts. Therefore, the final outcome of
this research is that the real estate practitioners will be supported by the systematic
risk assessment models and also be encouraged to apply all of this research findings to
modified their tools in order to deal with the potential risks associated in their
projects.
RESEARCH METHODOLOGIES
Prior the whole research conduct, the following assumptions are established in order
to fulfil the objectives of the research:
1. Risks in real estate development are mostly associated with the consequences
of STEEP factors
2. Systematic risk assessment models are necessary for real estate developers to
structure the decision-making process in regard to deal with potential risks in
this business.
3. Decisions making supporting models such as Analytic Network Process (ANP), or
Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN) are supposed to use by the developers to clarify
the cause and estimate the consequences of risks in real estate development
business.
4. It is necessary to implement new risk management technique for Thailand real
estate developers in order to mitigate the consequence of risks in this business.
To response to the research assumptions mentioned above, this research “Analytic
Approaches to risk assessment in real estate development” will be conducted under the
circumstance that this research is an interdisciplinary research comprising built
environmental; real estate development; risk management and business management.
According to literature review, and the proposed research method herein, the researcher is
able to establish the risk assessment criteria upon the real estate development scheme, able
to challenge the existing theory or risk assessment methods, able to suppose the practicable
risk assessment method, including suggest the practical risk management guideline for Thai
real estate developer. The expected outcome of this research will be appropriated to the real
estate development business wholly. (Please see the research road map in appendix)

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The following four methods to investigate, and complete this research are established,
which are:
1) Establishing research questions and the literature review.
2) ANP and BBN risk assessment models.
3) Face-to-face questionnaires surveys/interviews.
4) Risks and their consequences analysis
Literature review covering on all problems in regard to the impact of risks to the real estate
development process, the nature of real estate projects, the existing Thailand real estate
development and its risk, the existing risk assessment methods and risk indicators are also
reviewed and critiqued. In addition, the principles of decision-making supporting models such
as ANP, and Bayesian Belief Network are reviewed respectively. The purpose of this
literature review is to understand the principles of the aforesaid models and the applications of
decision-making supporting models in regard to risk assessment in real estate development
projects. Literature review encourages the researcher to develop the risk assessment criteria,
which designed based on all research assumptions and the regular risks in real estate
development business, those cover on the risks involved in project feasibility stage, as
impacted by the Social, Technical, Environmental, Economical and Political factors
(STEEP).
.For example, the risk assessment criteria are tabled in the Table 1 below, it is contain with the
criteria based on STEEP factor and each sub-criterion, the evaluation methods to degree the
consequence of each risk, include the supportive evidence of each sub-criteria. However, the
example Table 1 was established based on UK real estate business contexts. In order to suit
with Thailand real estate development sector, the risk assessment criteria, which appropriate
to Thailand contexts will be further developed.

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Table 1 Risks Assessment Criteria for the real estate development
Criteria Sub-Criteria Valuation methods
Representative
references
Workforce
availability
Degree of Developer’s satisfaction to local workforce
market (%)
Danter (2007)
Community
acceptability Degree of benefits for local communities (%)
Danter (2007)
Cultural
compatibility
Degree of business & lifestyle harmony (%) Danter (2007)
Social risks
Public hygiene Degree of impacts to local public health & safety (%) NHS Standards
Site conditions
Degree of difficulties in site preparation for eachspecific
plan(%)
Danter (2007)
Designers and
Constructors
Degree of Developer’ satisfaction to their performances (%)
Khalafallah, et al.
(2002)
Multiple
functionality
Degree of multiple use of the property (%) Danter (2007)
Constructability Degree of technical difficulties in construction (%) Lam, et al. (2006)
Duration Total duration of design and construction per 1,000 days (%) Khalafallah, et al. (2002)
Amendments
Possibility of amendments in design and construction
(%)
Khalafallah, et al. (2002)
Facilities
management
Degree of complexities in facilities management (%) Moss, et al. (2007)
Accessibility &
Evacuation
Degree of easy access and quick emergency evacuation
in use (%)
Moss, et al. (2007)
Technological
risks
Durability
Probability of refurbishment requirements during
buildings lifecycle (%)
Chen (2007)
Adverse environ-
ment impacts
Overall value of the Environmental Impacts Index Chen, et al. (2005)
Environmental
risks Climate change
Degree of impacts to use and value due to regional
climatic variation (%)
UNEP (2007)
Interest rate Degree of impacts due to increment of loan rate (%)
Sagalyn (1990);
FSA(2005); Nabarrol &
Keys (2005); FSB
(2007); IPF (2007)
Property type Degree of location concentration (%)
Adair & Hutchison
(2005); IPF (2007)
Market liquidity
Sellingrateof samekind of properties in thelocal market
(%)
Adair & Hutchison
(2005
Currency
conversion
Degree of impacts due to exchange rate fluctuation
Morledge, et al. (2006);
FSA (2005); FSB (2007)
Demand and
Supply
Degree of regional competitiveness (%)
Adair & Hutchison
(2005
Purchase ability Degree of affordability to the same kind of properties (%) http://www.statistics.gov.uk
Brand visibility
Degree of Developer’s reputation in specific
development (%)
D&B (2007); Adair &
Hutchison (2005); Gibson
& Louragand (2002)
Capital exposure Rate of estimated lifecycle cost per 1 billion pound (%)
Blundell, et al. (2005);
Moore (2006)
Lifecycle value 5-year property depreciation rate (%)
Lee (2002); Adair &
Hutchison (2005
Area accessibility Degree of regional infrastructures usability (%) Adair & Hutchison (2005)
Buyers Expected selling rate (%) IPF (2007)
Tenants Expected annual lease rate (%) Booth, et al. (2002)
Economic
risks
Investment return Expected capitalization rate (%) Sagalyn (1990);
Political activist
protestant
Degree of protest by the urban communities (%) Arthurson (2001)
Commercial Tax
Policy
Rate of Commercial Tax impact (%)
Gehner, etal(2006) ; FSB
(2007)
Local Tax Policy Rate of Council Local Tax (%) LCC,2008(1)
Building
Regulations
Total Days of construction, design approval process
by Liverpool City Council (LCC)
Crown, 2008 (2)
Political Risks
License Approving Total Days of license approval process Crown, 2008 (3)
(Chen & Khumpaisal, 2008)

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The following step of this research is the face-to-face questionnaires surveys in order
to find some relevant information. Interviewees are selected from the group of small
or medium size developers in Thailand real estate market, together with the real estate
experts, and /or real estate specialist consultants, the number of interviewees are 40
interviewees.
Face-to-face interview process is facilitated by the designed questionnaires, for example the
questionnaire is covering on all criteria set up in risk assessment table. The interviewees rank
the level of risk and the consequences of risks, impact to their project and the alternative
development plan in percentage (%), then, the results will be calculated by pair-wised method,
following by the supermatrix calculation. The following diagram illustrates the framework of
developing the risk assessment model based on ANP process.
(Chen & Khumpaisal, 2008)
Figure 1 : Existing and ANP risk assessment processes
After completing data collection from survey, those data will be analyzed, synthesized and
summarized in each selected models. In order to complete this research stage, all results
derived from the selected models will becompared with results gained by the current risk
assessment method to calibrate their validity, reliability and any error during the process. All
finalized results will be reported and then distributed to the participants for testing their
satisfactions and the practicability to use in the real business case.

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Finally, the researcher will introduce new risk assessment technique to Thailand Real
estate development sector, the new assessment technique together with risk
assessment criteria will be developed to suit with the real estate contexts and the
practitioners’ requirements in order to assess and deal with potential risks in their
projects.
RESEARCH LIMITATIONS
The study will be only conducted in Bangkok Metropolitan Area (BMA) and its surrounding
vicinity. According to the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board
(NESDB) and Thailand Government Housing Bank (2007) survey’s results, the residential
projects are mostly developed, clustering around BMA area, and nearby provinces such as
Pathumtani, Nontaburi, particularly around the new Bangkok Airport in Samutprakarn
provinces (BMA south west area). Studied area is showing on the Bangkok Metropolitan
Area (BMA) map below3
.
Figure 2: Studied Area (Bangkok Metropolitan Region)
The population of this research will be emphatically focused on the residential or commercial
projects developed by Thai developers in Bangkok Metropolitan Area and its vicinity area.
Real estate speculators, industrial developers and land bank speculators are excluded from the
population of the research.
3
http://www.asa.or.th/download/03media/04law/cpa/mr49-bma-landuse.jpg
Bangkok Area
Nontaburi
Samutprakarn
Pathumtani

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CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS
Risks associated in the real estate development business could cause a widespread turmoil
to the global business, for example the world economic crisis in 1997th
, caused by the
collapse of overall Thailand’s economic, impact by the negligence in risks of the real estate
developer, which is the classic case to support the critical issues of risks in real estate
business. In order to prevent or mitigate the consequences of risk to the real estate business,
it is recommended that the role players in this industry such as developers or financial
institutions should attend more concentration in risk management. However, the systematic
risk assessment methods including the practical risk managerial techniques to deal with the
risks are not yet suggested into this real estate development business. Therefore, this paper
aims to implement the decision-making supporting models, which are: Analytic Network
Process (ANP) and Bayesian Belief Network, which are the effective tools to deal with risks
in many industries such as construction or manufacturing industries, into the Thailand real
estate business context.
The results from face-to-face interviewing surveys and data analysis will reveal that Thai
developers indeed need risk assessment guidelines, which are practicable, reliable and
shall be simply used in the real business case. In addition, they also need more knowledge
in regard to the risk management techniques, thus this research will also discuss and
introduce new risk managerial technique, which created based on the Supply Chain
Management principles. This technique is suitable for Thai developers in reducing the
consequence of risks caused by the internal factors such as contractual risks and property
management risks etc.
However, due to the limitations of the research, the important part such as risk assessment
criteria, or the evaluation methods were developed based on United Kingdom’ s real
estate business contexts, which are different from Thailand real estate development
business. It is recommended that for the further research this part shall be precisely
modified in accordance with Thai developers’ requirements. It is to enhance the risk
management guideline to suit with the real situation in Thailand’s real estate development
context.
Finally, the expected outcome of this research is the implementation of the specific
knowledge in assessing the risks and their consequences, the awareness of risks and risk
managerial techniques to Thai real estate developers, in the small and medium size
companies due to they are affected from the consequence of risks more than the large size
companies. The contribution of this research will support Thai developers in decision-
making process towards risk assessment in real estate business and are able to deal with
the consequences of risks to survive in the current fluctuated period.

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14. 14

15. 15
APPENDICES
A – GLOSSARY AND TERMS
B – RESEARCH ROAD MAP
C - Example of face-to-face interview Questionnaires

16. 16
GLOSSARY AND TERMS
STEEP = “STEEP” stands for Social, Technical, Environmental, Economic, and Political
Factors. Those factors are strongly involved in each project development stage
(Morrison, 2007). STEEP describes a framework of macro- environmental factors
used in project or investment environmental scanning. It is a part of the external
analysis, when doing marketing research which gives an overview of the different
macro- environmental factors that the company has to consider while investing in
any project. It is a useful strategic tool for understanding market growth or decline,
business position, potential and direction for operations.4
ANP = Analytic Network Process, the decision-making supporting system,
implemented by Professor Thomas L. Saaty. An Analytic Network Process
(ANP) is a general form of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) used in
multi-criteria decision analysis. The AHP structure a decision problem into
levels forming a hierarchy, while the ANP is using a network approach. Then
use a system of pair-wise comparisons to measure the weights of the items in
the hierarchy, and finally to rank the alternatives in the decision making process.
“Bayesian Belief Network” According to the probabilistic graphical model to represent a set
of variables and their probabilistic independencies. Generally, Bayesian Networks are
directed acyclic graphs whose nodes represent variables, and whose arcs encode conditional
independencies between the variables, as well as to represent the underlying probabilistic
relationships of a complex system. Bayesian Belief Network is also used for reasoning with
uncertainty, such as in decision support systems. Additionally, Bayesian networks that can
represent and solve decision problems under uncertainty are called influence diagrams.
(Wang, 2003 and Willis, 2000)
SCM = Supply Chain Management, its definition mean the managerial technique, which
encompasses the planning and management of all activities involved in sourcing,
procurement, conversion, and logistics management activities. Importantly, it also
includes coordination and collaboration with channel partners, which can be
suppliers, intermediaries, third-party service providers, and customers. In essence,
Supply Chain Management integrates supply and demand management within and
across companies. 5
ThisSCM will be suggested in this research as the managerial
technique to deal with the impact of risks in real estate business.
4
http://www.businessballs.com/pestanalysisfreetemplate.htm
5
http://www.emeraldinsight.com/Insight/viewPDF.jsp?Filename=html/Output/Published/EmeraldFullT
extArticle/Pdf/3000090201.pdf

17. 17
Figure
3
The
Research
Road
Map

18. School of Built Environment
Liverpool
SUKULPAT KHUMPAISAL (PAT)
E-MAIL: S.KHUMPAISAL@2007.LJMU.AC.UK ; PHONE: 07942-396823
QUESTIONNAIRE SURVEY
RISKS ASSESSMENT IN REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENT: AN ANALYTIC NETWORK PROCESS APPROACH
Please estimate risks that may be relevant to alternative assumptions (Plan A and B) or your real project plans. Thanks.
Alternative
Plans*
Criteria Sub-Criteria Valuation methods Unit
A B
Workforce availability Degree of Developer’s satisfaction to local workforce market %
Community acceptability Degree of benefits for local communities %
Cultural compatibility Degree of business and lifestyle harmony %
Social Risks
Public hygiene Degree of impacts to local public health & safety %
Site conditions Degree of difficulties in site preparation for each specific plan %
Designers and Constructors Degree of Developer’ satisfaction to their performances %
Multiple functionality Degree of multiple use of the property %
Constructability Degree of technical difficulties in construction %
Duration Total duration of design and construction per 1,000 days %
Amendments Possibility of amendments in design and construction %
Facilities management Degree of complexities in facilities management %
Accessibility & Evacuation Degree of easy access and quick emergency evacuation in use %
Technological
Risks
Durability Probability of refurbishment requirements during buildings lifecycle %
Adverse environment impacts Overall value of the Environmental Impacts Index %
Environmental
Risks Climate change Degree of impacts to use and value due to regional climatic variation %
Interest rate Degree of impacts due to increment of loan rate %
Property type Degree of location concentration %
Market liquidity Selling rate of same kind of properties in the local market %
Currency conversion Degree of impacts due to exchange rate fluctuation %
Demand and Supply Degree of regional competitiveness %
Purchaseability Degree of affordability to the same kind of properties %
Brand visibility Degree of Developer’s reputation in specific development %
Capital exposure Rate of estimated lifecycle cost per 1 billion pound %
Lifecycle value 5-year property depreciation rate %
Area accessibility Degree of regional infrastructures usability %
Buyers Expected selling rate %
Tenants Expected annual lease rate %
Economic
Risks
Investment return Expected capitalization rate %
Political Groups/Activist Degree of protest by the urban communities %
Commercial Tax Policy Degree of Commercial Tax affect to project %
Local Tax Policy Rate of Council Local Tax %
Council Approval
Total Days of construction, design approval process by the Liverpool
City Council (LCC)
%
Political
Risks
License Approval Total Days of license approval process %
* Alternative development plans: Plan A: Retail-led mixed-use inner Liverpool City Centre; Plan B: Commercialbuildingledmixed-use
adjacenttoinner LiverpoolCityCentre.

19. School of Built Environment
Liverpool
SUKULPAT KHUMPAISAL (PAT)
E-MAIL: S.KHUMPAISAL@2007.LJMU.AC.UK ; PHONE: 07942-396823
QUESTIONNAIRE SURVEY
RISKS ASSESSMENT IN REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENT: AN ANALYTIC NETWORK PROCESS APPROACH
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