Uncovering Political Connections of Firms Using Machine Learning

1. Uncovering political connections of firms using machine learning methods BURN meetup, 9th February 2016 » János Divényi @janosdivenyi « » Jenő Pál @paljenczy «

2. CEU Microdata Ádám SzeidlMiklós Koren

3. CEU Microdata Ádám SzeidlMiklós Koren Political connections and favoritism in Hungary

4. Political connections matter

5. Political connections matter

6. Guess the color: left or right Altus Zrt. Fittelina Kft. Mahír Zrt. Közgép Zrt.

9. Guess the color: left or right How to automate the process for each firm?

10. Framework Information Decision rule

11. Information Firm register Election data

12. Information Firm register Election data

13. Information Firm register Election data ~5M rows ~350k rows

14. Information Firm register Election data ~5M rows ~350k rows data.table

15. Decision rule ~1B rows ~1B rows The firm is right if there are more right than left politicians in the firm

16. Guess the color: left or right Altus Zrt. Fittelina Kft.Mahír Zrt. Közgép Zrt.

18. firm1 firm6 firm11 firm16 firm21 firm26 firm31 firm36 firm41 firm46 firm2 firm7 firm12 firm17 firm22 firm27 firm32 firm37 firm42 firm47 firm3 firm8 firm13 firm18 firm23 firm28 firm33 firm38 firm43 firm48 firm4 firm9 firm14 firm19 firm24 firm29 firm34 firm39 firm44 firm49 firm5 firm10 firm15 firm20 firm25 firm30 firm35 firm40 firm45 firm50 Guess the color: left or right

20. firm1 firm6 firm11 firm16 firm21 firm26 firm31 firms36 firm41 firm46 firm2 firm7 firm12 firm17 firm22 firm27 firm32 firm37 firm42 firm47 firm3 firm8 firm13 firm18 firm23 firm28 firm33 firm38 firm43 firm48 firm4 firm9 firm14 firm19 firm24 firm29 firm34 firm39 firm44 firm49 firm5 firm10 firm15 firm20 firm25 firm30 firm35 firm40 firm45 firm50 Guess the color: left or right

22. Ferenc Gyurcsány PM of left coalition 2004-2009

23. Ferenc Gyurcsány PM of left coalition 2004-2009 Ferenc Gyurcsán local representative at Nyíregyháza 1998

25. Improve data What is the chance that firm person & politician is the same?

26. Improve data What is the chance that firm person & politician is the same? Probabilistic coloring

27. Improve data What is the chance that firm person & politician is the same? 69% left 31% other Probabilistic coloring

28. Decision rule ~1B rows ~1B rows The firm is right if the average right probability is larger than the average left probability

34. Improve information

36. Improve information Links: common ownership or location

37. Improve information Oligarchopedia

41. Improve information igraph

42. Improve decision rule use machine learning instead of ad hoc algorithms

43. Improve decision rule use machine learning instead of ad hoc algorithms need training data

44. Improve decision rule

47. one interface to many algorithms streamlines the process of machine learning parallel computation with reproducibility Improve decision rule caret classification and regression training

48. one interface to many algorithms streamlines the process of machine learning parallel computation with reproducibility Improve decision rule caret classification and regression training doParallel

49. The train function

50. Parallel computation

51. Seeds for parallel stochastic models

55. iterative process involving manipulation, visualization, modelling, etc Takeaways

56. iterative process involving manipulation, visualization, modelling, etc data.table Takeaways igraph ggplot2 caret ROCR doParallel

57. Miklós Koren, Ádám Szeidl, Márta Bisztray, Anna Csonka, Krisztián Fekete, Attila Gáspár, Dániel Molnár, Gábor Nyéki, Krisztina Orbán, Rita Pető, Balázs Reizer, Mátyás Steiner, Bálint Szilágyi, Ferenc Szűcs, András Vereckei, Zsófia Kőműves, Olivér Kiss, Dániel Pass, Dávid Popper and others... Thanks for the attention

Uncovering Political Connections of Firms Using Machine Learning

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