Reuters/Ipsos Core Political Survey: Presidential Approval Tracker (08/12/2020)

1. © 2020 Ipsos 1
Core Political Data
AUGUST 12, 2020
Ipsos Poll Conducted for Thomson Reuters
© 2020 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written
consent of Ipsos.

2. © 2020 Ipsos 2
For the survey,
a sample of
1,215
Americans
including
521
Democratic
Registered
Voters
386
Republican
Registered
Voters
93
Independent
Registered
Voters
18+
ages
w e r e i n t e r v i e w e d o n l i n e
1,034
Registered
Voters
These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted
for date
August 10-11, 2020
Core Political Data
IPSOS POLL CONDUCTED FOR REUTERS

3. © 2020 Ipsos 3
IPSOS POLL CONDUCTED FOR REUTERS
The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval.
In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus the following percentage points
For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.
3.2
All Adults
4.9
Democratic
Registered Voters
5.7
Republican
Registered Voters
11.6
Independent
Registered Voters
3.5
All Registered
Voters
Core Political Data

4. © 2020 Ipsos 4
• The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by:
– Gender
– Age
– Education
– Ethnicity
– Region
• Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls.
• All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement
error.
• Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of one per cent.
• Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding.
• To see more information on this and other Reuters/Ipsos polls, please visit: http://polling.reuters.com/
Core Political Data
IPSOS POLL CONDUCTED FOR REUTERS

5. © 2020 Ipsos 5
Right Direction/Wrong Track
ALL ADULT AMERICANS
Right Direction
Wrong Track
Don’t know
22%
69%
10%
All Adults
Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong
track?
23%
71%
6%
All
Registered
Voters
6%
91%
2%
Democratic
Registered
Voters
47%
43%
10%
Republican
Registered
Voters
10%
81%
9%
Independent
Registered
Voters

6. © 2020 Ipsos 6
Most Important Problem Facing America
ALL ADULT AMERICANS
All Adults All Registered Voters
Democratic
Registered Voters
Republican
Registered Voters
Independent
Registered Voters
Economy generally 19% 20% 15% 24% 23%
Unemployment / lack of jobs 10% 10% 10% 11% 9%
War / foreign conflicts 2% 2% 1% 3% 2%
Immigration 5% 5% 4% 7% 6%
Terrorism / terrorist attacks 3% 3% 1% 6% 2%
Healthcare 19% 21% 28% 13% 20%
Energy issues 1% 1% 1% 0% 0%
Morality 7% 8% 5% 12% 1%
Education 4% 3% 4% 1% 4%
Crime 4% 4% 2% 8% 3%
Environment 5% 5% 7% 3% 1%
Other 16% 16% 20% 10% 23%
Don’t know 4% 2% 1% 2% 5%
In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the U.S. today?

7. © 2020 Ipsos 7
Most Important Problem Facing America
ALL ADULT AMERICANS
In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the U.S. today?
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Economy generally
Unemployment / jobs
Healthcare
Terrorism
Immigration
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

8. © 2020 Ipsos 8
Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?
Is that strongly (approve/disapprove) or somewhat (approve/disapprove)? (Asked of those who selected “approve” or “disapprove”)
Q2b. If you had to choose, do you lean more towards approve or disapprove? (Asked of those who selected “don’t know”)
All Adults Registered Voters
Democratic
Registered Voters
Republican
Registered Voters
Independent
Registered Voters
Strongly approve 23% 25% 4% 56% 12%
Somewhat approve 14% 13% 3% 27% 11%
Lean towards approve 3% 3% 1% 4% 4%
Lean towards disapprove 1% 1% 0% 1% 2%
Somewhat disapprove 9% 8% 9% 6% 13%
Strongly disapprove 45% 48% 81% 5% 46%
Not sure 5% 2% 1% 1% 12%
TOTAL APPROVE 40% 41% 8% 87% 27%
TOTAL DISAPPROVE 55% 57% 91% 12% 61%
Donald Trump’s Approval
ALL ADULT AMERICANS

9. © 2020 Ipsos 9
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Jan20-24,2017
Feb10-14,2017
March3-7,2017
March24-28,2017
April21-25,2017
May12-16,2017
June2-6,2017
June21-27,2017
July14-18,2017
Aug4-8,2017
Aug25-29,2017
Sept15-19,2017
Oct6-10,2017
Oct27-31,2017
Nov17-21,2017
Dec8-12,2017
Dec29,2017-Jan2,…
Jan19-23,2018
Feb9-13,2018
March2-6,2018
March23-27,2018
April13-17,2018
May4-8,2018
May25-29,2018
June15-19,2018
July6-10,2018
July27-31,2018
August15-21
Sept5-11,2018
Sept26-Oct2,2018
October17-23,2018
November14-20,2018
December5-11,2018
December26,2018-…
January16-22,2019
February6-13,2019
March6-12,2019
March26-April1,2019
April17-23,2019
May10-14,2019
May29-June5,2019
June24-25,2019
July15-16,2019
August1-5,2019
August26-27,2019
Sept16-17,2019
Oct7-8,2019
Oct28-29,2019
Nov18-19,2019
Dec9-10,2019
January13-14,2020
February3-4,2020
March2-3,2020
March30-31,2020
April15-21,2020
May11-12,2020
June1-2,2020
June22-23,2020
July13-14,2020
August3-4,2020
Donald Trump’s Weekly Approval
ALL ADULT AMERICANS
Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?
40%
55%
Total Approve
Total Disapprove

10. © 2020 Ipsos 10
Issue Approval
ALL ADULT AMERICANS
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling the following issues?
Strongly
approve
Somewhat
approve
Lean
towards
approve
Lean
towards
disapprove
Somewhat
disapprove
Strongly
disapprove
Don’t
know
TOTAL
APPROVE
TOTAL
DISAPPROVE
The U.S. Economy 26% 12% 10% 7% 8% 32% 5% 48% 46%
Healthcare Reform 16% 14% 9% 8% 7% 39% 8% 39% 53%
Employment and jobs 25% 14% 10% 7% 8% 31% 5% 49% 46%
Immigration 25% 11% 8% 6% 6% 39% 6% 43% 51%
China 23% 11% 9% 7% 8% 36% 7% 42% 51%
Coronavirus/COVID-19 17% 14% 7% 7% 5% 43% 6% 38% 56%

11. © 2020 Ipsos 11
March
2-3,
2020
March
9-10,
2020
March
16-17,
2020
March
18-24,
2020
March
30-31,
2020
April 6-
7, 2020
April
13-14,
2020
April
15-21,
2020
April
27-29,
2020
May 4-
5, 2020
May
11-12,
2020
May
18-19,
2020
May
20-27,
2020
June 1-
2, 2020
June 8-
9, 2020
June
10-16,
2020
June
22-23,
2020
June
29-30,
2020
July 6-
7, 2020
July 13-
14,
2020
July 15-
21,
2020
July 27-
28,
2020
August
3-4,
2020
August
10-11,
2020
Response to the Coronavirus
ALL ADULT AMERICANS
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling the following issues? Coronavirus/COVID-19:
Total Approve
Total Disapprove
56%
38%

12. © 2020 Ipsos 12
All Adults Registered Voters
Democratic
Registered Voters
Republican
Registered Voters
Independent
Registered Voters
Donald Trump 37% 38% 6% 84% 27%
Joe Biden 44% 49% 86% 7% 32%
Some other candidate 7% 6% 4% 4% 18%
I would not vote 5% 1% 0% 1% 4%
Not sure 7% 5% 4% 4% 19%
General Election
ALL ADULT AMERICANS
If the 2020 presidential election were held today, would you vote for Donald Trump or Joe Biden?
*Order of candidates is randomly rotated in question text

13. © 2020 Ipsos 13
All Adults Registered Voters
Democratic
Registered Voters
Republican
Registered Voters
Independent
Registered Voters
Donald Trump 37% 38% 6% 84% 27%
Undecided, lean Trump 6% 4% 2% 7% 11%
Undecided, lean Biden 12% 9% 7% 2% 30%
Joe Biden 44% 49% 86% 7% 32%
General Election – Forced Choice
ALL ADULT AMERICANS
If the 2020 presidential election were held today, would you vote for Donald Trump or Joe Biden?*
If you had to choose, would you say you lean towards supporting Donald Trump or Joe Biden?*+
*Order of candidates is randomly rotated in question text
+ Forced choice only asked of those who said “some other candidate”, “I would not vote”, or “not sure” in initial question

14. © 2020 Ipsos 14
All Adults Registered Voters
Democratic
Registered Voters
Republican
Registered Voters
Independent
Registered Voters
Donald Trump 37% 38% 6% 84% 26%
Joe Biden 43% 47% 83% 6% 32%
Jo Jorgensen 2% 2% 1% 1% 4%
Howie Hawkins 1% 1% 1% 0% 3%
Kanye West 3% 2% 2% 2% 1%
Some other candidate 3% 3% 3% 1% 16%
I would not vote 5% 2% 1% 2% 2%
Not sure 7% 6% 4% 4% 17%
General Election
ALL ADULT AMERICANS
If the 2020 presidential election were held today, and the candidates were as below, for whom would you vote?

15. © 2020 Ipsos 15
March
18-24,
2020*
March
30-31,
2020*
April 6-
7,
2020*
April
13-14,
2020
April
15-21,
2020
April
27-29,
2020
May 4-
5, 2020
May
11-12,
2020
May
18-19,
2020
May
20-27,
2020
June 1-
2, 2020
June 8-
9, 2020
June
10-16,
2020
June
22-23,
2020
June
29-30,
2020
July 6-
7, 2020
July
13-14,
2020
July
15-21,
2020
July
27-28,
2020
August
3-4,
2020
August
10-11,
2020
ALL REGISTERED VOTERS
Donald Trump
Joe Biden
If the 2020 presidential election were held today, would you vote for Donald Trump or Joe
Biden? Order of candidates is randomly rotated in question text
Presidential Ballot Trend
*“If the 2020 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were as below, for whom would you vote?” Question text from March 18-April 7, 2020
49%
38%

16. © 2020 Ipsos 16
March
2-3,
2020
March
16-17,
2020
March
18-24,
2020
March
30-31,
2020
April 6-
7, 2020
April
13-14,
2020
April
15-21,
2020
April
27-29,
2020
May 4-
5, 2020
May 11-
12,
2020
May 18-
19,
2020
May 20-
27,
2020
June 1-
2, 2020
June 8-
9, 2020
June 10-
16,
2020
June 22-
23,
2020
June 29-
30,
2020
July 6-7,
2020
July 13-
14,
2020
July 15-
21,
2020
July 27-
28,
2020
August
3-4,
2020
August
10-11,
2020
Coronavirus Concern
ALL ADULT AMERICANS
How concerned are you personally about the spread of coronavirus/COVID-19?
% Somewhat/Very concerned All Americans
Democratic Registered Voters
Republican Registered Voters
93%
80%
66%

17. © 2020 Ipsos 17
Political Identity
20%
17%
9%
9%
13%
15%
10%
8%
37%
28%
45%
37%
10%
8%
Strong Democrat
Moderate Democrat
Lean Democrat
Lean Republican
Moderate Republican
Strong Republican
Independent
Other/Don't know/Refused
Democrat
Republican
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Other/None/Don't know
Party ID
Party ID w/ Lean
ALL ADULT AMERICANS
With which political party do you most identify?

18. © 2020 Ipsos 18
How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Intervals
APPENDIX
The calculation of credibility intervals assumes that Y has a binomial distribution conditioned on the
parameter θ, i.E., Y|θ~bin(n,θ), where n is the size of our sample. In this setting, Y counts the number
of “yes”, or “1”, observed in the sample, so that the sample mean ( ത𝑌) is a natural estimate of the true
population proportion θ. This model is often called the likelihood function, and it is a standard concept
in both the bayesian and the classical framework. The bayesian1 statistics combines both the prior
distribution and the likelihood function to create a posterior distribution.
The posterior distribution represents our opinion about which are the plausible values for θ adjusted
after observing the sample data. In reality, the posterior distribution is one’s knowledge base updated
using the latest survey information. For the prior and likelihood functions specified here, the posterior
distribution is also a beta distribution (π(
𝜃
𝑦
)~β(y+a,n-y+b)), but with updated hyper-parameters.
Our credibility interval for θ is based on this posterior distribution. As mentioned above, these intervals
represent our belief about which are the most plausible values for θ given our updated knowledge base.
There are different ways to calculate these intervals based on π (
𝜃
𝑦
). Since we want only one measure of
precision for all variables in the survey, analogous to what is done within the classical framework, we will
compute the largest possible credibility interval for any observed sample. The worst case occurs when
we assume that a=1 and b=1 and y=n/2. Using a simple approximation of the posterior by the normal
distribution, the 95% credibility interval is given by, approximately: ഥ𝑌 ∓
1
𝑛

19. © 2020 Ipsos 19
FOR THIS POLL
The Bayesian credibility interval was adjusted using standard weighting design effect 1+L=1.3 to account for complex weighting2
Examples of credibility intervals for different base sizes are below:
How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Intervals
APPENDIX
SAMPLE SIZE
CREDIBILITY
INTERVALS
2,000 2.5
1,500 2.9
1,000 3.5
750 4.1
500 5.0
350 6.0
200 7.9
100 11.2
1 Bayesian Data Analysis, Second Edition, Andrew Gelman, John B. Carlin, Hal S. Stern, Donald B. Rubin, Chapman & Hall/CRC | ISBN: 158488388X | 2003
2 Kish, L. (1992). Weighting for unequal Pi . Journal of Official, Statistics, 8, 2, 183200.

20. © 2020 Ipsos 20
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