This presentation was given by David Dodman, International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED), as part of a webinar hosted by the International Science Council and UNRISD on 'Moving beyond exposure: Addressing climate-related risks in informal coastal settlements'. Find out more: http://www.unrisd.org/coastal-cities-webinar

1. 1
David Dodman
February 2019Author name
Date
David Dodman
February 2019
International Institute for Environment and Development
(IIED)
Moving Beyond Exposure:
addressing climate-related risks in informal coastal settlements
Webinar, 26 February 2019
Pathways to resilience in informal
coastal settlements
Dr David Dodman
david.dodman@iied.org

2. 2
David Dodman
February 2019
Climate Risk
Source: IPCC Fifth Assessment

3. IPCC Global Warming of 1.5°C
Summary for Policy Makers
Global warming of 2°C is expected to pose
greater risks to urban areas than global
warming of 1.5°C (medium confidence).
The extent of risk depends on human
vulnerability and the effectiveness of
adaptation for regions (coastal and non-
coastal), informal settlements, and
infrastructure sectors (energy, water, and
transport) (high confidence).
Building resilience for residents of low-income and
informal settlements in coastal areas is increasingly urgent

4. 4
David Dodman
February 2019
Coastal Settlements:
Hazards and Exposure
Sources: IPCC Fifth Assessment /
NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications
Center

5. 5
David Dodman
February 2019
Hazards and Exposure:
changes in means; changes in extremes; informality
Source: NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center

6. 6
David Dodman
February 2019
Sources: IPCC Fifth Assessment;
IPCC Cities and Climate Science
Coastal Settlements:
Informality and Vulnerability
Sea-level rise Coastal erosion, land loss,
more floods from storm
surges; hundreds of millions
of urban dwellers living in
low elevation coastal zones.
Many informal settlements
close to the sea with poor
quality housing and lacking
drainage infrastructure.

7. 7
David Dodman
February 2019Author name
Date
David Dodman
February 2019
Addressing informality and poverty is
necessary to transform adaptation
• Strengthening livelihoods and income
generation: building resilience of assets
• Social protection: building adaptive
capacity and ability to respond
• Information: to inform actions
• Financial support: decentralised, flexible,
community-managed funds
• Relocation and new build:
people can be willing to move if risks
are reduced and if sites meet needs
and capacities to pay
Good quality ‘risk reducing’ infrastructure and services
and better housing quality are at the centre of reducing
risks from extreme weather – recognised by IPCC

8. 8
David Dodman
February 2019
Relocating to reduce risk:
Barriers
• Mistrust:
citizens don’t trust governments;
governments don’t trust residents
• Financial drivers:
centrally located land sought by
investors; cheaper land (for
relocation) doesn’t meet needs of
residents
• Creation of new risks:
from inappropriate or inaccessible
housing
• Process: lack of consultation and
engagement

9. 9
David Dodman
February 2019
Relocating to reduce risk:
Promising examples
Nairobi (Kenya):
Development of relocation
plan (ending of forced
evictions)
Close engagement
between citizens and
government
Learning from examples
elsewhere (Mumbai
railway)
Appropriate compensation
Recognising (to an extent)
absentee structure
owners
Solo (Indonesia):
Mayor encouraged
dialogue with riverbank
households
Residents could choose
and purchase land sites in
safer locations
Services and official
identity cards provided
(But elsewhere – despite
dialogue – agreements
were not reached)

10. 10
David Dodman
February 2019
Relocating to reduce risk:
Emerging principles
• Consultation and
engagement at every
stage
• Recognition of priorities
and needs (livelihoods,
social networks)
• Understanding threats
from climate change:
co-production of
knowledge and maps
• Underpinned by
appropriate finance

11. 11
David Dodman
February 2019
References
Lines, K., and Makau, J. (2017) Muungano nguvu yetu (unity is
strength): 20 years of the Kenyan federation of slum dwellers.
International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED).
http://pubs.iied.org/10807IIED/
Satterthwaite, D., Archer, D., Colenbrander, S., Dodman, D.,
Hardoy, J., & Patel, S. (2018). Responding to climate change in
cities and in their informal settlements and
economies. Background paper for IPCC Cities and Climate
Science conference. https://citiesipcc.org/wp-
content/uploads/2018/03/Informality-background-paper-for-IPCC-
Cities.pdf
Taylor, J. (2015). "A tale of two cities: comparing alternative
approaches to reducing the vulnerability of riverbank
communities in two Indonesian cities." Environment and
Urbanization 27(2): 621-636.
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0956247815594532