Presentation at the 2022 Australian Association of Gerontology on the possibilities of digital twinning for managing population ageing and associated issues.

1. A Digital Twin for
Population Ageing in
Australia: Data
Visualisation and
Societal Complexity
Presenter
Hamish Robertson, PhD
Faculty of Health
University of Technology Sydney

2. Contents
Introduction
The digital twin concept
Updated population ageing
Environmental complexity
Epidemiology of ageing – dementia(s)
Managing complexity in situ and at scale
Conclusion

3. Introduction
• Australia’s population is ageing – not unique BUT variable across a
large and complex geography
• Environmental problems rising in variety, frequency, severity and
complexity e.g. recent flooding events, bush fires, infectious disease
• Complexity means variables intersect and produce potential
additional effects e.g. Covid, population move to regions, housing
pressures etc. etc.
• How to better manage resource limitations, planning and policy
limitations and dynamic human-environment interactions?
• Explore the idea of a digital twin approach to population ageing

4. The digital twin concept
• Key manufacturing concept being translated/transferred into other
domains e.g. healthcare and the virtual hospital
• Aged care complex with multiple data sources requiring
integration/analysis/response/application
• Spatial digital twinning -> physical reality plus the map plus data in
‘real time’ Google Earth concept –
data+time/temporality+scale+tilt/pan/angle of view
• Google Maps developments
• Facebook Reality Labs: LiveMaps
• Uber and related MAAS data analysis

5. Uber and Live
Data Visualisation
and Analysis

6. Google Earth Updates and Timelapse Function

7. Updated and updating population ageing
• 2021 Census results coming on stream
• dynamic demography over time and geography -> localized and
regional effects
• Non-linear effects and environmental/infrastructure changes e.g.
an ageing area in 2006 is no longer ageing in 2021
• AIHW projections will require updating and very soon

8. Age-Sex Pyramids by Year and Geography

9. Estimated
Dementia
Prevalence in
2020

10. Estimated
Dementia
Prevalence in
2032

11. Spatially Enabled Dashborading

12. Healthcare Expenditure by Age and Sex

13. Major Areas of Expenditure

14. Virtual Earth
with Census
Data
2006-2021

15. Managing complexity in situ and at scale
• Growth in digital data across multiple systems brings risks and
benefits
• Risks - very obvious e.g. Medibank, Optus etc.
• Benefits – digital twinning of complex and dynamic phenomena
• Faster, more accurate modelling and updates – efficient use of
funds and resources, more timely responses (lead versus lag)
• Converging on a digital twin environment that includes spatial,
temporal and structural information
• Capacity to reconfigure and extend emerging scenarios quickly

16. Conclusion
• An evolving concept with potential for health and aged care
• New data sources add to credibility of modelling
• New techniques being applied e.g. AI, GeoAI
• Literacy skills and critique issues
• Tertiary and aged care sectors need to collaborate more directly
• Twinning for improvements across a challenged system of care