Attached is a presentation I gave to the 2017 International Cities and Towns Conference in Melbourne on Mackay. The city has rebounded strongly from the mining downturn and is now growing strongly again and poised for an exciting near term future.
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MACKAY: Who are we?
117,703
POPULATION $7.2 BILLION GROSS
REGIONAL PRODUCT
PRODUCED BY
MINING AND
MANUFACTURING
$64,061 REGIONAL
GRP PER CAPITA
$4.6 BILLION ECONOMIC
OUTPUT FROM MINING
AND MANUFACTUING
SECTORS
PROVIDE OVER 1/3
OF AUSTRALIA’S
SUGAR
WORKFORCE
4. THE RESOURCE BOOM: 2002 - 2013
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Source: IBIS World
Business Environment
Profiles, August 2017
High-growth period
5. THE BOOM AND MACKAY: 2002 – 2013
5
11,678
NEW DWELLINGS
11,022
NEW RESIDENTIAL
LOTS (32% INCREASE)
163 HECTARES
OF ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPED
INDUSTRIAL LAND
27,694 ADDITIONAL JOBS
SIGNIFICANT PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE
27,522 ADDITIONAL PEOPLE
(30% INCREASE)
12. Source: Federal Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE), Dept of Infrastructure and Regional Development
MACKAY AIRPORT PASSENGER MOVEMENTS
18. FACILITATING DEVELOPMENT IN THE MACKAY REGION POLICY
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Policy provides incentives for development that will deliver economic development and growth outcomes.
Introduced in January 2015 in response to slow growth and infrastructure capacity.
Undergone two amendments to broaden policy scope.
Concessions include:
• Dedicated point of contact
• Infrastructure charge concessions
• DA fee refund
• Delayed payment of infrastructure charges
• Service connection fee refund
• Reduced food and trade waste licence fees
• Reduced car parking
• Extended construction hours
Two stage application process with approval being provided by elected members.
Approvals linked to construction timeframe of two years and require use of local workforce.
Approvals condition no additional infrastructure upgrades at cost to Council.
19. FACILITATING DEVELOPMENT IN THE MACKAY REGION POLICY
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• Schedule 1 – Major development within Mackay City Centre
• Schedule 2 – Major industry development
• Schedule 3 – Aged care and retirement living inside the PIA
• Schedule 4 – Rural and nature based tourism
• Schedule 5 – Commercial and retail
• Schedule 6 – Community facilities
• Schedule 7 – Residential development
Version 1
Version 1
Version 2
Version 2
Version 3
Version 3
Version 3
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RANGE OF APPROVALS
City Centre Industry Aged care Tourism Commercial
and retail
Community Residential
Multiple
dwelling
Low impact Not-for-profit Motorbike
camp
Gym Theatre Multiple
dwelling
Student
accomm
Transit centre For profit Caravan park Shopping
centre
Netball facility Subdivision
Locomotive
shed
Fruit and veg
outlet
Hotel Cancer clinic
Subdivison Petting zoo Car yard Art gallery
Child care
22. APPROVAL SUMMARY
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Schedule No. of Approvals Concessions ($M) Outputs ($M) Construction Jobs
1. City Centre 2 1.49 94.56 227
2. Industry 8 1.37 388.56 420
3. Aged care 3 2.86 164.07 393
4. Rural based tourism 4 0.13 3.23 22
5. Commercial and retail 4 0.60 75.1 272
6. Community facilities 6 0.33 30.84 77
7. Residential development 2 0.05 3.42 17
TOTAL 29 $6.83 M $759.78 M 1,428
25. CONCESSIONS EXPECTED TO BE REALISED
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Schedule
Number of
approvals
Expected to
proceed
Concessions
($M) Outputs ($M)
Construction
Jobs
1. City Centre 2 0 Nil Nil Nil
2. Industry 8 6 0.38 56.77 123
3. Aged care 3 1 1.56 64.52 140
4. Rural based tourism 4 4 0.13 3.23 22
5. Commercial and retail 4 1 0.07 10.58 22
6. Community facilities 6 6 0.33 30.84 77
7. Residential development 2 2 0.05 3.42 17
TOTAL 29 20 $2.52 M $169.36 M 401
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SUMMARY OF APPROVALS
• 29 approvals:
- 2 completed
- 6 under construction
- 12 further expected to commence construction soon
• All rural and nature based tourism approvals expected to commence
• All community facility approvals expected to commence
• Largest concession - $1.56M (Aged care)
• Smallest concession - $4,000 (Low impact industry)
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KEY LEARNINGS
• Concessions don’t ensure project feasibility.
• Concessions remove one of the biggest financial hurdles for the establishment of
smaller business – great for tourism and small enterprise.
• Concessions are not likely to be the deciding factor for medium to large enterprise,
however they do assist as a selling point.
• Concessions should be reported and monitored to decision makers – remove risk of false
perception.
• Concessions need to be flexible and cater for wide range of uses.
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Domestic Visitors:
Total Domestic Visitors 883,000
Trend Change 10.4% growth
International Visitors:
Total International Visitors 45,000
Annual Change 7.4% growth
The Mackay region welcomed 45,000 international and 883,000 domestic overnight visitors
in the year ending June 2017.
Source: Tourism & events Queensland
Domestic Tourism Snapshot
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• Job growth
• Decreasing unemployment
• Tourism visitor growth
• Improving residential property market
• Business confidence
THE NEW (AND SUSTAINABLE) FUTURE
Population 117,703
Workforce 44,770
$7.2 Billion Gross Regional Product
$64,061 Regional GRP Per Capita
$4.6 Billion Economic Output from mining and manufacturing sectors
1/3 Regions Economic Output is produced by mining and manufacturing
Mackay provides over 1/3 of Australia’s sugar
(Data for Mackay LGA)
Definition: Output data represents the gross revenue generated by businesses/organisations in each of the industry sectors in a defined region. Gross revenue is also referred to as total sales or total income.
From 2003 to 2008, the price of coking coal tripled, due mainly to demand growth from China, and to a lesser extent India
The price growth was exacerbated in 2008 when flooding in Queensland, Australia (one of the world centers of coal mining) closed coal mines for months, strongly restricting the world’s coal supply. Lost production could not be compensated for later in the year due to export limitations on Australia’s ports. As a result of the supply shock, coking coal prices rose from 50.0% during the year to average $133.69 per short ton.
The global financial crisis unfolded over the second half of 2008, though, and world trade plummeted heading into 2009. As businesses around the world struggled with debt issues and reduced revenues, they scaled back on investment in large-scale infrastructure projects that require vast quantities of steel. The reduced demand for steel reverberated through the supply chain, dropping demand for coking coal. The low demand dropped the price of coking coal 11.4% in 2009.
The world economy returned to growth in 2010 and the demand for steel returned. The increased demand drove the price of coking coal up 23.4% to $146.1 per short over the year. Queensland, Australia experienced significant flooding again in early 2011, causing another supply shock. As a result, the price of coking coal spiked 27.4% in 2011. In 2012 and 2013, no such supply shock occurred, causing the price of coking coal to fall 18.7% in 2012 and 23.8% in 2013.
What the boom meant for Mackay?
27,694 additional jobs
163 hectares of developed industrial land (321 hectares of zoned industrial land added in 2006)
27,522 additional people (30% increase)
11,678 new dwellings / 11,022 new residential lots (32% increase)
Significant public infrastructure:
Blue water lagoon, blue water trail, art gallery, entertainment centre etc
What does our region’s growth journey look like?
The region had just experienced its longest high growth period in history, between 2002 and 2013 – 11 years.
The impact on the settlement pattern was intense in doubling zoned industrial land in 2006, and expanding residential areas by more than 23%, mostly in the Mackay urban area.
Residential growth north of the Pioneer River has been significant, with the Northern Beaches area experiencing intense growth.
Marian, Mirani, Walkerston and Sarina saw new residential development estates being created.
We approved and built 8,500 new residential lots in high growth period, that did not exist in 2002.
This slide shows the impact of growth on the Mackay urban area – where just under 70% of our region's population now resides.
This highlights the impact of the recent higher growth above 2% per year from 2003-2013
For example: the new industrial activity forced Council to more than ‘double’ the Paget industrial zone from 176 ha to 503 ha in 2006 (MCPS)
By 2015, 60% of this enlarged Paget 500 ha estate are now been used – including land used as hardstand area.
The region experienced a record population growth for more than 10 years – historically population growth periods only lasted 3-5 years.
To bring this home, the population in the Mackay region increased by 30,000 in just 12 years - between 2001 and 2013 (that’s a 33% population increase)[Source: ABS Census and estimated residential population = 91,000 (2001) to 121,000 (2013).
This growth experience has intensified efforts to properly plan for future growth
Growth is accommodated through:
A settlement pattern that allows population densities and employment areas that make efficient use of infrastructure, and
Providing additional zoned land for specific uses in the planning scheme (type, size and location)
Infrastructure planning is done to support sequenced development over a fixed period (minimum 15 years)
The scheme’s capacity to accommodate a projected population and employment growth is tested by using Council’s Growth Allocation model
The growth patterns is strongly influenced by the several studies undertaken, which includes planning for growth.
In June 2013, the Australian mining sector faced major economic disruption following the most intense and prolonged resource sector exploration, investment and development period in recent history.
Unemployed persons:
- 4,261 (Dec 2001)
4,416 (Mar 2017)
Unemployment was as little as 2.5% during the high growth period in 2008, however it peaked at over 10% in 2015.
From January 2016 ‘stabilisation’
Median sale price appears to have stabilised since March 2016.
First small increase experienced in June 17.
Estimated resident population.
Turning point in 2013/14 where we started to see a slight decline.
Population usually resident
2006: 103,567
2011: 115,960 (12,393 growth since 2006)
2016: 117,703 (1743 growth since 2011)
Population has continued to grow over the last 5 year period but at a much slower rate.
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Regional Population Growth, Cat. 3218.0 (2016 revised data was released on 31 July 2017. 2016-17 data is expected to be available in March 2018).
Peaks:
2009-10 Non-residential $621.2M
2012-13 Residential $571.4M
2015-16
Non-residential $47.6M
Residential $106.1M
Back to pre-boom levels but was a significant decline and an adjustment required for our construction industry.
2016: back to 2006 levels
Still higher than pre-2002
Total passengers for August 2017 rolling over 12 months= 774,950
Source: Federal Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE), Dept of Infrastructure and Regional Development
Council rolled out a stimulus package as part of the 2015/16 budget.
The package included:
Facilitating Development Policy
Events and Conference Attraction Program
Better Community Building Fund
Façade Improvement
The Invest Mackay Events Attraction and Conference Attraction Programs aim to support the attraction of major sporting events, concerts and conferences to stimulate the local economy.
The impact of major events on regional communities is undeniable, with Mackay Regional Council taking a lead and investing $3.8 million into the Invest Mackay Conference and Event Attraction Program since 2015.
103 Events and Conferences supported through the program since 2015 which has injected an estimated $52 million into the local economy
Key events secured by the program include:
DestinationQ Conference,
Indoor Netball Super Nationals
T20 Allstars Cricket Festival
The Footy Show,
Pre-season AFL and NRL
International Rugby Sevens
Maroons Origin Fan Day
Elton John and His Band – Once in a Lifetime
Future events:
International Pro Darts
Women’s Big Bash
A range of sporting tournaments and championships including basketball, golf, athletics and swimming.
The Better Community Building Fund was first established by council in 2015-16 as an economic stimulus measure. It was for shovel-ready projects that would use local contractors and provided grants of between $75,000 and $250,000.
The success of the fund prompted council to provide another $2 million in the 2016-17 budget. However, council tweaked the focus of the fund to provide smaller grants to a wider variety of projects and organisations right throughout the Mackay Regional Council area.
A total of 23 applicants have been granted funding, ranging from $18,000 to $350,000, as part of council’s 2016-17 Better Community Building Fund.
The Façade Improvement Scheme was first introduced in 2015/2016 in the Mackay City Centre but has since been extended to other commercial areas throughout the region.
The Scheme involves Council providing funding up to $3,000 to co-contribute to improvements to building facades in commercial locations with active frontages and pedestrian thoroughfares. The works must be undertaken by local contrators.
To date the scheme has provided 60 approvals, equating to $150,000 in rebates, which equates to $800,000 in spend with local contractors.
Version 1 introduced in January 2015
Version 2 introduced in February 2016
Version 3 introduced in November 2016.
This graph highlights the following:
Initial uptake of the Policy was slow with the first application being approved almost a year after adoption – reflective of the economic environment at the time of adoption.
The expansion of the Policy attracted interest immediately – attracting three rural based/nature based tourism uses which were approved in May 2016.
The further expansion of the Policy has resulted in increased interest with 17 applications been since November 2016. This increased approval rate is reflective of the broad scope of the Policy and also reflects the growing confidence in the economic environment.
Broad range of approved uses across all schedules.
29 Approvals
$6.83 million in approved concessions
$759.78 million in economic output
1,428 construction jobs (ongoing jobs not modelled)
Schedule 2 – Industry has provided the most approvals followed by Schedule 6 – Community Facilities.
Significant media interest – majority positive, however also some negative feedback about council’s role in subsidising private development.
Applications are decided at Committee meetings by elected members. Applicants are invited to present to the committee which can also generate media attention.
Not all approvals will be developed.
Approval of concessions does not guarantee that a project will commence.
20 of 29 approvals are expected to commence.
20 approvals expected to commence equate to - $2.52 M
9 approvals not expected to commence equate to - $4.31
All of the 9 approvals not expected to proceed were providing significant concessions:
6 provided concessions over $500,000
3 concessions above $200,000
It is unlikely that even the granting of 100% concessions on these infrastructure charges would allow the project to commence as charges are not the only factor relating to project feasibility.
If all projects were to proceed Council would not be at a loss as we have capacity in our infrastructure networks and would receive infrastructure charges which would otherwise not be received at all. Win-win for Council.
This graph shows the difference in approved concessions vs concessions likely to proceed.
Granting of large concessions have a significant impact on the total of approved concession, however the reality is that these larger developments may not proceed as feasibility often relies on additional factors.
The granting of concessions appears to have a positive impact on smaller enterprise and start-up businesses for which infrastructure charges are often a significant hurdle. These concessions don’t generally amount to significant forfeiting of infrastructure charge revenue.
Residential vacancy rates have dropped since September 16.
Peaked at 9.8% in December 2014 and currently sit at 4.5%.
Job growth has been experienced in Mackay in 2016 and 2017. First positive growth since 2013.
Approximately 5,000 jobs lost in 2015 and approximately 2,500 gained in 2016. Stabilisation since January 2016.
Employed persons:
40,000 (Dec 2001)
65,500 (Mar 2017)
The Mackay region welcomed 45,000 international and 883,000 domestic overnight visitors in the year ending June 2017.
Domestic Stats -In the year ending June 2017, Mackay welcomed a record of 883,000 visitors, with growth of 10.4%. All purposes of travel experienced growth, with business up 13.0%, holiday up 10.5% and VFR travel up 2.6%. Holidaymakers extended their stays in the region which contributed to overall growth in visitor nights (total nights up 12.4% in the three years ending June 2017). Visitation growth came from both the intrastate and interstate markets, especially from those travelling overnight within the Mackay region.
International Stats - The Mackay region recorded 7.4% growth in visitation for the year ending June 2017, welcoming 45,000 visitors. Visitation from Germany increased and is the region’s largest source market ahead of NZ. The average length of stay in the region shortened which resulted in a 13.3% decline in international visitor nights. It Was predominately VFR visitors who shortened their stay with holiday makers visitation and nights both growing.
Mackay’s economic outlook is positive:
Job growth – the workforce is once again growing. Mackay Council is working with industry partners to promote job opportunities in Mackay as a number of businesses are experiencing difficulty in filling positions.
Decreasing unemployment – Mackay’s unemployment is currently 6.2% which is the same as was last experienced in September 2004. Pre-boom unemployment was approximately 9%.
Tourism visitor growth – domestic visitation has increased by 10.4% and international visitation by 7.4%.
Improving residential market – median house price has stabilised and is showing signs of improvements. Rental vacancy rates have reduced significantly.
Business confidence – businesses are employing, stable coal price, confidence returning.