Which are the top emerging risks and food safety trends that AI models predict for 2023? And what do prominent food industry leaders think about them? FOODAKAI’s AI models have generated their 2023 forecasts for emerging trends in food safety incidents globally. In this online panel discussion, Prof. Chris Elliott invited the AI expert behind these models and two industry leaders to reflect upon these forecasts. More specifically, he asked Giannis Stoitsis (CTO Agroknow) to introduce FOODAKAI’s annual predictions about incident & hazard trends. Then, he asked Vera Petrova Dickinson (Food Safety & Quality Executive) and Richard Stadler (Head of Nestlé Institute of Food Safety & Analytical Sciences) for their reflection. A conversation followed about ways in which such AI-powered predictions can support strategic and operational prevention decisions in safety and quality. For more info and the session recording: https://info.agroknow.com/webinar-2023-food-risk-predictions

1. Which are the top-10 emerging risks that AI models predict?
Key Food Safety Trends in 2023:
webinar

2. Key Food Safety Trends in 2023: Which are the top-10 emerging risks that AI models predict?
powered by
We hear a lot about AI & predictive analytics
Good crisis prevention will always be better than a well-handled
crisis
This is not new 'news' but still a massive challenge
AI & predictive analytics are fast becoming buzz words in many
sectors of business

3. Key Food Safety Trends in 2023: Which are the top-10 emerging risks that AI models predict?
powered by
Focus of today’s webinar
How many of us really understand and trust them?
Discuss how new ways of moving from crisis management to
prevention can be gained through exploiting data
This is what our panel will discuss and debate in today's webinar

4. Key Food Safety Trends in 2023: Which are the top-10 emerging risks that AI models predict?
powered by
Giannis Stoitsis
CTO & Partner
Agroknow
Vera Petrova Dickinson
CEO, Innova-Q
Global FSQ Leader
Chris Elliott
Professor of Food Safety
and Microbiology at
Queen's University Belfast
Richard Stadler
Head, Nestlé Institute of
Food Safety &Analytical
Sciences at Nestlé Research
Our Expert Speakers

5. Key Food Safety Trends in 2023: Which are the top-10 emerging risks that AI models predict?
powered by
Predicting
Food Risks:
The Global
Trends Case

6. The Data &
Analytics Company
that
uses AI to predict
Food Safety Risks

7. Key Food Safety Trends in 2023: Which are the top-10 emerging risks that AI models predict?
powered by
% of prediction accuracy of each
deployed model
Our Promise
Reliable risk forecasting for
critical raw materials &
ingredients, by thoroughly
tested & highly accurate AI
models
% of recalls that have been early
highlighted as an emerging risk

8. Key Food Safety Trends in 2023: Which are the top-10 emerging risks that AI models predict?
powered by
Main concern that we hear in food industry
“Can we really trust those
models? We don’t
understand how they work"

9. Key Food Safety Trends in 2023: Which are the top-10 emerging risks that AI models predict?
powered by
Food Safety Incident Trends & Forecasting
Which are the emerging
food safety trends in the
global landscape that we
should keep an eye on?

10. Key Food Safety Trends in 2023: Which are the top-10 emerging risks that AI models predict?
powered by
Polychronou, I., Katsivelis, P., Papakonstantinou, M., Stoitsis, G., & Manouselis, N. (2020, February). Machine Learning Algorithms for Food Intelligence:
Towards a Method for More Accurate Predictions. In International Symposium on Environmental Software Systems (pp. 165-172). Springer, Cham.
Create Tailor-
made Datasets for
an Ingredient
Select the ML
Approach
Parameterization
Of ML Algorithms
Train & Test
Prediction Model
Deploy The Best
Performing Model
in a Dashboard
Methodology to build AI models

11. Key Food Safety Trends in 2023: Which are the top-10 emerging risks that AI models predict?
powered by
Prediction successes
The increasing
trend of ETO in
sesame seeds and in
herbs and spices was
forecasted in
September 2020
Increasing trend for
Heavy metals in cocoa
highlighted in May 2022
and in Dec 2022 we had
the first consumer reports
and lawsuits to companies
Salmonella increasing
trend for chocolate
products forecasted in
Oct 2021 and the
incidents started on
Feb 2022

12. Key Food Safety Trends in 2023: Which are the top-10 emerging risks that AI models predict?
powered by
The crises that have gone under the radar of AI
models
Unknown risks
such as the
peanuts traces
in soya lecithin
in 2022
Swedish egg
salmonella
outbreak in
2023
ETO issue in
food additives
in 2021

13. Key Food Safety Trends in 2023: Which are the top-10 emerging risks that AI models predict?
powered by
2023 Trends &
Predictions:
Key Questions

14. Key Food Safety Trends in 2023: Which are the top-10 emerging risks that AI models predict?
powered by
My own predictions
10
5
15
25
20
Poultry Meat &
Poultry Meat
Products
6
8
11 11
14
17
21
22
17 17
Meat & Meat
Products
Milk & Milk
Products
Cereals &
Bakery
Products
Oils & Fats Herbs & Spices
Nuts & Seeds Cocoa, Coffee
& Tea
Confectionery Fruits &
Vegetables
Participants’ areas of interest Participants’ areas of interest
& C. Elliott’s predictions

15. Key Food Safety Trends in 2023: Which are the top-10 emerging risks that AI models predict?
powered by
What are some
of the regional FS
risks impacting
suppliers and
materials in my
network?
Using Predictive Analytics to build
stronger Supplier and Material Controls
What are some of
the slowly
emerging FS
hazards that may
impact internal FS
strategies?
What are
some emerging
trends that may
short materials in
my company's supply
chain?
Can I anticipate future
supplier or material
performance to make
better decisions on
relationship with
suppliers?
01 02 03 04

16. Key Food Safety Trends in 2023: Which are the top-10 emerging risks that AI models predict?
powered by
Using AI to exploit all available data and
information to help decision making
What is the “risk”
from a safety /
compliance /
reputational
perspective? Are
the models
sufficiently
granular?
Do the models
dig sufficiently
deeply into the
data? Is there a
safety concern?
Signals of changes in
the regulatory
landscape including
analytical
requirements /
developments ?
Do the models utilize
the correlations to
associated data to
identify patterns on
climate change, soil,
water etc?
01 02 03 04

17. Key Food Safety Trends in 2023: Which are the top-10 emerging risks that AI models predict?
powered by
2023 Food
Safety Trends:
The AI
Forecasts

18. Top risk trends forecasted for 2023
FOOD CATEGORY WHICH RISK WILL
INCREASE
EMERGING RISK GEOGRAPHY WITH
HIGH RISK PROFILE
Milk and milk products Listeria Monocytogenes Cronobacter sakazakii US, France, Mexico
Cereals & Bakery Pesticides Pyrrolizidine alkaloids (pas) US, Mexico, India
Herbs & Spices Salmonella, Pesticides, ETO Pesticides (carboxin, bifenthrin,
tolfenpyrad)
India, Brazil
Fats & Oils Sudan 4, ETO,
Glycidyl esters
Mineral oil Ghana, Syria
Cocoa, Coffee & Tea Heavy metals, ETO Piperonyl butoxide China
Nuts & Seeds Aflatoxin, ETO Pesticides (dichlorvos,
isoprocarb)
US, India, China
Cocoa and Chocolate Products Heavy metals Malathion Ecuador, Colombia
Fruits & Vegetables Pesticides, Aflatoxin Mineral oil Turkey, China, US

19. FOOD CATEGORY WHICH RISK WILL
INCREASE
EMERGING RISK GEOGRAPHY WITH
HIGH RISK PROFILE
Milk and milk products Listeria Monocytogenes Cronobacter sakazakii US, France, Mexico
Cereals & Bakery Pesticides Pyrrolizidine alkaloids (pas) US, Mexico, India
Herbs & Spices Salmonella, Pesticides, ETO Pesticides (carboxin, bifenthrin,
tolfenpyrad)
India, Brazil
Fats & Oils Sudan 4, ETO,
Glycidyl esters
Mineral oil Ghana, Syria
Cocoa, Coffee & Tea Heavy metals, ETO Piperonyl butoxide China
Nuts & Seeds Aflatoxin, ETO Pesticides (dichlorvos,
isoprocarb)
US, India, China
Cocoa and Chocolate Products Heavy metals Malathion Ecuador, Colombia
Fruits & Vegetables Pesticides, Aflatoxin Mineral oil Turkey, China, US
Top risk trends forecasted for 2023

20. Key Food Safety Trends in 2023: Which are the top-10 emerging risks that AI models predict?
powered by
Forecasted risks
for Cereals &
Bakery products

21. Key Food Safety Trends in 2023: Which are the top-10 emerging risks that AI models predict?
powered by
Forecasted Risk Trend For Cereals & Bakery
Products
Accuracy: 74.9%
Model
Validation

22. Key Food Safety Trends in 2023: Which are the top-10 emerging risks that AI models predict?
powered by
Forecasted
risks for Herbs
& Spices

23. Key Food Safety Trends in 2023: Which are the top-10 emerging risks that AI models predict?
powered by
Forecasted Risk Trend For Herbs & Spices
Accuracy: 81.8%

24. Key Food Safety Trends in 2023: Which are the top-10 emerging risks that AI models predict?
powered by
Forecasted risk
for Heavy
Metals in Cocoa
& Chocolate
products

25. Key Food Safety Trends in 2023: Which are the top-10 emerging risks that AI models predict?
powered by
The risk is estimated based
on the frequency of HM
occurrences (> LOQ) in
cocoa and the frequency of
incidents for cocoa and
chocolate products. The
increasing trend can be
identified before 2016,
giving enough time to
focus on the specific risk
and activate early the
preventive measures.
There is an increasing trend of risk for Heavy
Metals in Cocoa and Chocolate products
Forecasted risk
Heavy Metals Risk Trend For Cocoa

26. Key Food Safety Trends in 2023: Which are the top-10 emerging risks that AI models predict?
powered by
Incidents for cadmium in cocoa
and chocolate products
Insights on Heavy Metals Risk From Global Incidents
There is an increasing
trend of incidents for
Heavy Metals in Cocoa
and Chocolate products
from 2016 and onwards.
Before 2015, 3 incidents
were reported and after
2015 14 incidents were
reported (an increase
by 360%).
The frequency of heavy
metal issues increased,
having such incidents
reported every year after
2016
2006-2015 2015-2022
10
5
3
14
15

27. Key Food Safety Trends in 2023: Which are the top-10 emerging risks that AI models predict?
powered by
Increased risk due to
cadmium in cocoa
Insights on heavy metals risk from global lab tests
for concentration of heavy metals in Cocoa (>LOQ)
The number of
cocoa samples in
which the
concentration of HM
were found above
LOQ has doubled in
the last 5 years. The
peaks in 2016 and
2018 were due to the
large number of
samples that were
found above LOQ for
cadmium in cocoa.
2006-2015 2015-2022
200
420
799
400
600
800

28. Key Food Safety Trends in 2023: Which are the top-10 emerging risks that AI models predict?
powered by
What is the specific risk profile of a known or
emerging hazard coming from a specific geography?
18 709
This chart shows the risk
profile of specific
geographies for an
emerging hazard such
as Heavy Metals and
specifically cadmium.
Ecuador & Colombia

29. Key Food Safety Trends in 2023: Which are the top-10 emerging risks that AI models predict?
powered by
What you can do with this knowledge
Communicate
the risk to
organisation
Proactively
adjust supplier
practices
Proactively
adjust your
testing plan
Proactively
adjust your
audit plan
Change
suppliers

30. Key Food Safety Trends in 2023: Which are the top-10 emerging risks that AI models predict?
powered by
Questions that we cannot answer with the AI
models today
Unknown risks for
which there are no
previous knowledge e.g.
no reports announced
by Authorities, research
studies and reports
Predict socio
economic situation
in specific regions (e.g.
GDP, corruption
index) that may affect
risk in foods
Events that are
dependent on
many parameters
that cannot be
predicted
Behaviour of
people on how
they handle an
ingredient

31. Key Food Safety Trends in 2023: Which are the top-10 emerging risks that AI models predict?
powered by
AI Forecasts:
Reflection

32. Key Food Safety Trends in 2023: Which are the top-10 emerging risks that AI models predict?
powered by
Q&A Session

33. Key Food Safety Trends in 2023: Which are the top-10 emerging risks that AI models predict?
powered by
Reflection on the 2023 trends and predictions
Predictive models provide insights
that are not always obvious to the
human eye and become a
good basis for further expert
strategy development
Predictive analytics should be used
merely as an input into business
decisions, not as a final
recommendation.
It's like walking through the woods with some light shining through
the trees – you can see your direction much more clearly

34. Key Food Safety Trends in 2023: Which are the top-10 emerging risks that AI models predict?
powered by
Reflection on the 2023 trends and predictions
Not Sure
The source of the data and its
“reliability” will in many cases
need to be verified, so an
“expert” review or decision
remains pivotal (at least at this
point in time)
Suprises
Many “issues” previously
identified tend to be forgotten
and surprising how frequently
certain topics re-emerge –
essentially testing our
measures to mitigate or
manage them
Agree
We simply cannot exploit the
huge amount of data and
information out there without
AI, i.e. interconnect data and
identify signals and trends that
may impact our business
? !

35. Key Food Safety Trends in 2023: Which are the top-10 emerging risks that AI models predict?
powered by
Agree
• The analysis of data (often
complex) reveals many things
that are not obvious
• I am observing the power of AI
and PA in many areas of science
and food safety has multiple
data sources to make them
robust
• The case studies presented are
very convincing in terms of their
ability to predict serious issues
Unsure
• For the many types of food
commodities, ingredients
how many 'red lights' will
we get and will this overload
the resources available to
deal with them?
Reflection on the 2023 trends and predictions
?

36. Key Food Safety Trends in 2023: Which are the top-10 emerging risks that AI models predict?
powered by
Reflection

37. Key Food Safety Trends in 2023: Which are the top-10 emerging risks that AI models predict?
powered by
Questions from
audience

38. Key Food Safety Trends in 2023: Which are the top-10 emerging risks that AI models predict?
powered by
What would it take for me to trust
these predictions?
• More real-life examples to help
us understand critical data inputs needed
to drive accuracy of prediction and to
demonstrate evolution of machine
learning
• Education: Data and AI literacy is a critical
foundation needed in our FSQ community
Reflection about the potential of AI
In which decisions would I take them
into consideration?
• Long-term strategic decisions on
FSQ investments (ie lab equipment, capability
needs on the team, business relationship with
suppliers, etc)
• Short-term imminent decisions: updates to
FS plans, updates to material specs, supplier
management verification plans

39. Key Food Safety Trends in 2023: Which are the top-10 emerging risks that AI models predict?
powered by
Reflection about the potential of AI
What would it take for me to trust
these predictions?
• The quality of the data used in the
predictions (not all are reliable) and the
sources
• Verification – react fast to early indicators
In which decisions would I take them
into consideration?
• In raw material risk classification – e.g. how
they are considered in (i) HACCP studies, (ii)
Raw Material Purchasing Specifications, (iii)
Contaminant Surveillance plans
• Strategic research program in (digital) food
safety

40. Key Food Safety Trends in 2023: Which are the top-10 emerging risks that AI models predict?
powered by
Wrapping up:
How can AI
help today?

41. Key Food Safety Trends in 2023: Which are the top-10 emerging risks that AI models predict?
powered by
31%
15%
14%
14%
14%
11%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
I am afraid of unexpected, new types of risks that we have
not foreseen or dealt with before
I am unsure about whether we should adopt AI & predictive
analytics and whether we can trust such predictions
I am worried because we lack a comprehensive, reliable
view of all external risks affecting our supply chain
I am frustrated because we still perform critical risk
intelligence tasks in a manual or outdated way
I am fed up with our key supply chain stakeholders not
being fully aligned in terms of external risk monitoring &
prevention
I feel overwhelmed because we need to process, combine &
make sense out of so much data
Can we predict new type of risks?

42. Key Food Safety Trends in 2023: Which are the top-10 emerging risks that AI models predict?
powered by
Progress
To which extent have we made progress during the past 3 years?
Knowledge about what is
working and what is not
Understand the complexity
of the business problems
Have a better idea of the
food safety problems that we
can solve
Understand the value of high
quality harmonised data

43. Key Food Safety Trends in 2023: Which are the top-10 emerging risks that AI models predict?
powered by
What will help us understand and trust predictions
Demystification Training Standard
validation
framework
Be involved in
the design of
the model
Specific use
cases

44. Key Food Safety Trends in 2023: Which are the top-10 emerging risks that AI models predict?
powered by
Try AI-powered
risk predictions
yourself!
https://agroknow.com/signup4ai/

45. 110 Pentelis Str., Marousi, 15126, Greece
+30 210 689 7905
info@agroknow.com
Contact us: Agroknow
Agroknow
Follow us on:
THANKS FOR WATCHING!
@Agroknow