3. Economywide analysis
• Several methods available to ex ante evaluate impact of policies and external shocks
to economies.
• For instance;
• Partial equilibrium frameworks focus on a few sectors (e.g., a single or multi- market/farm
models/agriculture sector) with strong ceteris paribus assumptions.
• Lack of coverage of economywide linkages – sectors/markets are interdependent.
• What is economywide analysis?
• Analysis frameworks that considers the whole economy.
• Markets and economic agents are interconnected, i.e., transact, interact, and respond to market signals.
• E.g., Computable General Equilibrium(CGE) models
• Reflects a country’s economic structure and linkages.(Theoretically grounded-see Theory of General Equilibrium-
neoclassical economics)
4. Economywide analysis cont.
• Captures the interactions between different decision-making agents in a market-
based economy.
• When does economywide analysis warrant?
• When linkages or size effects are significant enough to warrant a whole economy’s perspective.
• Examples?
(i) Government doubles import tariffs on selected commodities
(ii) A widespread drought causes the maize crop to fail
(iii) High fuel, fertilizer and commodity prices – War in Ukraine affecting global prices
• To understand these linkages, let us consider the circular flow of income in the
economy
• Circular flow of income is the underlying concept behind SAMs.
5. Circular flow of income
Factor
Markets
Households
Firms
Product/com
Markets Private
consumption
Intermediate
demand
Sales
Wages
& rents
Intermediate
demand
Sales
Factor
costs
Social transfers
Savings &
Investment
Government
Public
consumption
Investment
demand
Domestic private savings
Public savings
Direct taxes
Indirect taxes
Exports
Foreign
Markets
Imports
Foreign savings or capital inflows
GDP (market prices) =
C + I + G + X – M
C G I
X M
GDP (factor cost) = F
GDP (market prices) = F + T
T
F
Investment I = Savings S
S
S
S
6. Economywide analysis in summary should….
• Capture economic linkages
• Comprehensive: all income and expenditure flows between all actors (e.g., households, government & ROW)
• Adhere to economywide or macroeconomic consistency requirements(“no free lunch”)
• Incomes to one are spendings to others
• Accounts in SAMs
• Government (revenues, expenditure)
• Savings-investment
• Current account (foreign exchange)
• Factor markets (intensity of factors)
• And (ideally) account for competition for resources – expanding sector
• Factor markets (land, labor, capital) – relative prices
• Product markets (supply, demand, import, export)
• Economic structure influences how economic agents respond to market signals.
• E.g. Dependence on domestic or imports for inputs and consumption – the impact of demand expansion would differ.
• E.g. Share of value added/intermediate inputs in gross output – VA would create further demand.
• SAMs are starting point of economywide models – databased for economywide analysis.
7. What is a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM)?
• SAMs are (national) accounting frameworks or databases
• Capture the circular flow of receipts
and payments between agents and
markets during a given year
• The importance of a ‘normal’ year
• Include all sectors, factors,
households, government and the rest of the world
• Every payment becomes someone else’s income (i.e., consistent double-entry accounting)
• How are transactions captured in a SAM?
• Square matrix
• Payments (in columns) and receipts (in rows)
8. ACT COM FAC HHD GOV INV ROW TOT
ACT
Marketed
output
Activity
incomes
COM
Intermediate
demand
Private
consumption
Public
consumption
Investment
demand
Exports Total demand
FAC Value added
Factors
incomes
HHD
Income
distribution
Social
transfers
Remittances
Household
incomes
GOV
Producer
taxes
Tariffs, VAT &
excise taxes
Direct taxes Foreign aid
Government
revenues
SAV
Private
savings
Public savings
Foreign
savings
Total savings
ROW Imports
Repatriated
profits
Debt
repayments
Foreign
payments
TOT Gross output Total supply
Factor
payments
Household
expenditures
Government
expenditures
Total
investment
Foreign
receipts
SAM structure
Payments
Receipts
9. SAM in summary
• The impacts of policy reforms, spending, and investments are influenced by:
The initial structures of institutions (households, enterprises, the government, and the
rest of the world);
• E.g.: Impact import price of wheat on rural vs urban households
The input–output relationships across sectors; and
The factor and product market linkages between consumers and producers.
• Supply responses; consumers dependance on local products
• All these structures and linkages are captured in SAMs
• Also, most parameter/variables for CGE models are drawn from SAMs.
• Production and consumption elasticities from elsewhere
• Quality of SAM data greatly influences the empirical strength of CGE analysis.
• Are we using data that resembles the economy?
10. ACT COM FAC HHD GOV INV ROW TOT
ACT
Marketed
output
Activity
incomes
COM
Intermediate
demand
Private
consumption
Public
consumption
Investment
demand
Exports Total demand
FAC Value added
Factors
incomes
HHD
Income
distribution
Social
transfers
Remittances
Household
incomes
GOV
Producer
taxes
Tariffs, VAT &
excise taxes
Direct taxes Foreign aid
Government
revenues
SAV
Private
savings
Public savings
Foreign
savings
Total savings
ROW Imports
Repatriated
profits
Debt
repayments
Foreign
payments
TOT Gross output Total supply
Factor
payments
Household
expenditures
Government
expenditures
Total
investment
Foreign
receipts
SAM structure
Value-added or GDP at factor cost
Sum of payments from activities to
factors
When disaggregated it tells about the
relative factor intensities in different
sectors.
Intermediate demand
Goods and services used in production.
When disaggregated we can analyze
differences in production technologies
Compare to value added to calculate ratio
of factor to non-factor input spending
11. ACT COM FAC HHD GOV INV ROW TOT
ACT
Marketed
output
Activity
incomes
COM
Intermediate
demand
Private
consumption
Public
consumption
Investment
demand
Exports Total demand
FAC Value added
Factors
incomes
HHD
Income
distribution
Social
transfers
Remittances
Household
incomes
GOV
Producer
taxes
Tariffs, VAT &
excise taxes
Direct taxes Foreign aid
Government
revenues
SAV
Private
savings
Public savings
Foreign
savings
Total savings
ROW Imports
Repatriated
profits
Debt
repayments
Foreign
payments
TOT Gross output Total supply
Factor
payments
Household
expenditures
Government
expenditures
Total
investment
Foreign
receipts
SAM structure
Factor income distribution
Factor incomes paid to
households (and other
domestic institutions) or foreign
institutions (repatriated profits)
When disaggregated these
accounts can tell us more about
the distribution of household
income
12. ACT COM FAC HHD GOV INV ROW TOT
ACT
Marketed
output
Activity
incomes
COM
Intermediate
demand
Private
consumption
Public
consumption
Investment
demand
Exports Total demand
FAC Value added
Factors
incomes
HHD
Income
distribution
Social
transfers
Remittances
Household
incomes
GOV
Producer
taxes
Tariffs, VAT &
excise taxes
Direct taxes Foreign aid
Government
revenues
SAV
Private
savings
Public savings
Foreign
savings
Total savings
ROW Imports
Repatriated
profits
Debt
repayments
Foreign
payments
TOT Gross output Total supply
Factor
payments
Household
expenditures
Government
expenditures
Total
investment
Foreign
receipts
SAM structure
Private (household) consumption
Regular consumption expenditure.
When disaggregated by commodities
and household types, we can analyze
differences in consumption patterns
of different types of households (e.g.,
Engel’s Law)
What about own consumption?
Government recurrent spending
Government spending on goods and
services to maintain government
function.
Investment demand
Private and public gross capital
formation; spending is typically on
commodities such as cement and
construction services.
13. ACT COM FAC HHD GOV INV ROW TOT
ACT
Marketed
output
Activity
incomes
COM
Intermediate
demand
Private
consumption
Public
consumption
Investment
demand
Exports Total demand
FAC Value added
Factors
incomes
HHD
Income
distribution
Social
transfers
Remittances
Household
incomes
GOV
Producer
taxes
Tariffs, VAT &
excise taxes
Direct taxes Foreign aid
Government
revenues
SAV
Private
savings
Public savings
Foreign
savings
Total savings
ROW Imports
Repatriated
profits
Debt
repayments
Foreign
payments
TOT Gross output Total supply
Factor
payments
Household
expenditures
Government
expenditures
Total
investment
Foreign
receipts
SAM structure
Foreign trade
Export earnings and import
payments; commodity
disaggregation allows analysis
of specific trade patterns.
Which cell captures which?
14. ACT COM FAC HHD GOV INV ROW TOT
ACT
Marketed
output
Activity
incomes
COM
Intermediate
demand
Private
consumption
Public
consumption
Investment
demand
Exports Total demand
FAC Value added
Factors
incomes
HHD
Income
distribution
Social
transfers
Remittances
Household
incomes
GOV
Producer
taxes
Tariffs, VAT &
excise taxes
Direct taxes Foreign aid
Government
revenues
SAV
Private
savings
Public savings
Foreign
savings
Total savings
ROW Imports
Repatriated
profits
Debt
repayments
Foreign
payments
TOT Gross output Total supply
Factor
payments
Household
expenditures
Government
expenditures
Total
investment
Foreign
receipts
SAM structure
Government taxes
Indirect tax revenue: sales
tax and import duties
(lumped together here);
commodity disaggregation
would allow us to estimate
average tax rates by
commodity
Government taxes
Direct tax revenue: personal
income tax and corporate
profit tax
15. ACT COM FAC HHD GOV INV ROW TOT
ACT
Marketed
output
Activity
incomes
COM
Intermediate
demand
Private
consumption
Public
consumption
Investment
demand
Exports Total demand
FAC Value added
Factors
incomes
HHD
Income
distribution
Social
transfers
Remittances
Household
incomes
GOV
Producer
taxes
Tariffs, VAT &
excise taxes
Direct taxes Foreign aid
Government
revenues
SAV
Private
savings
Public savings
Foreign
savings
Total savings
ROW Imports
Repatriated
profits
Debt
repayments
Foreign
payments
TOT Gross output Total supply
Factor
payments
Household
expenditures
Government
expenditures
Total
investment
Foreign
receipts
SAM structure
Remittances and social transfers
Households can receive transfers
from government (e.g. pension or
social cash transfers), or
remit/receive transfers to/from
other domestic households or
to/from the rest of the world.
What does the latter entail?
16. ACT COM FAC HHD GOV INV ROW TOT
ACT
Marketed
output
Activity
incomes
COM
Intermediate
demand
Private
consumption
Public
consumption
Investment
demand
Exports Total demand
FAC Value added
Factors
incomes
HHD
Income
distribution
Social
transfers
Remittances
Household
incomes
GOV
Producer
taxes
Tariffs, VAT &
excise taxes
Direct taxes Foreign aid
Government
revenues
SAV
Private
savings
Public savings
Foreign
savings
Total savings
ROW Imports
Repatriated
profits
Debt
repayments
Foreign
payments
TOT Gross output Total supply
Factor
payments
Household
expenditures
Government
expenditures
Total
investment
Foreign
receipts
SAM structure
Grants, loans, and interest
on foreign debt
Transactions between
government and the rest of
the world.
What does the transaction
from government to the rest
of the world represent?
17. ACT COM FAC HHD GOV INV ROW TOT
ACT
Marketed
output
Activity
incomes
COM
Intermediate
demand
Private
consumption
Public
consumption
Investment
demand
Exports Total demand
FAC Value added
Factors
incomes
HHD
Income
distribution
Social
transfers
Remittances
Household
incomes
GOV
Producer
taxes
Tariffs, VAT &
excise taxes
Direct taxes Foreign aid
Government
revenues
SAV
Private
savings
Public savings
Foreign
savings
Total savings
ROW Imports
Repatriated
profits
Debt
repayments
Foreign
payments
TOT Gross output Total supply
Factor
payments
Household
expenditures
Government
expenditures
Total
investment
Foreign
receipts
SAM structure
Domestic and foreign savings
Households, government, and
the rest of the world all “save”.
What are savings used for?
18. SAM Structure
ACT COM FAC HHD GOV INV ROW TOT
ACT
Marketed
output
Activity
incomes
COM
Intermediate
demand
Private
consumption
Public
consumption
Investment
demand
Exports
Total
demand
FAC Value added
Factors
incomes
HHD
Income
distribution
Social
transfers
Remittances
Household
incomes
GOV
Producer
taxes
Tariffs, VAT &
excise taxes
Direct taxes Foreign aid
Government
revenues
SAV
Private
savings
Public
savings
Foreign
savings
Total savings
ROW Imports
Repatriated
profits
Debt
repayments
Foreign
payments
TOT Gross output Total supply
Factor
payments
Household
expenditures
Government
expenditures
Total
investment
Foreign
receipts
C G I
T
VA
GDP at factor cost
GDPfc = VA
GDPmp = GDPfc + T
Gross domestic product at
market prices
GDP = C + I + G + (X – M)
= domestic absorption
+ trade balance
X
M
19. Compilation and interpretation of a SAM
• The information needed to build a SAM comes from a variety of sources.
• Supply and Use Tables (SUTs) – input structure, source of demand, source of supply
• National accounts (sectoral production, exp and income),
• Household surveys (cons spending, and income), LFS
• Government financial statistics (rev and exp), and
• Balance of payments from NBE.
• Placing these data within the SAM framework almost always generates
inconsistencies –proto-SAMs.
• Disaggregation – depend on the purpose of the SAM and structure of the economy
• Data from different sources, inconsistencies in data across sources
• A number of statistical estimation techniques exist to balance SAM accounts.
• Cross-entropy estimation is frequently used method.
• Using cell and total controls when data is reliable.
• Allows for pre-specified degree of variation when uncertain.
20. Building a Macro-SAM→ Exercise 1 (Task 1)
Complete “Task 1 Worksheet.xls” in the
“Exercises” folder. The solution file is in the
“Solutions” sub-folder.
A brief look at the
Ethiopian micro-
SAM
Task 1:
Constructing a Macro-SAM for Ghana
• As part of this training, we designed a number of Microsoft Excel-based exercises.
• All exercises are based on the 2007 training SAM for Ghana.
• After finishing the exercises/tasks, you can check your answer by looking at the
solution worksheets.
• The exercises at hand help study the structure of a SAM and the data required to
build this database.
21. • Activity: Build an aggregate macro-SAM using 2007 data from Ghana
• Outcome: Familiar with a structure of a basic SAM and how to build one.
• Key data needed:
• National accounts (GDP at factor cost)
• National accounts (GDP at market price)
• Government financial statistics (revenue and spending)
• Balance of payments
• Extra task: Discuss each entry of the macro-SAM
• Value added—GDP at factor cost
• Intermediate demand
• Factor income distribution (share of labor and capital)
• Private consumption
• Government spending (recurrent and investment demand)
• Foreign trade – determine net importer or not
• Gov’t taxes
22. 2015 Rwanda SAM (in billions of RWF) –output of task 1.
Activit’s
C1
Comd’s
C2
Factors Househ’d
C4
Gover’t
C5
Invest’t
C6
Rest of
World
C7
Total
C3-1 C3-2
Activities
R1
24,996 24,996
CommoditiesR
2
12,029 12,142 1,805 4,680 5,151 35,807
Factors
Labor
R3-1
9,717 9,717
Capital
R3-2
3,250 3,250
Households
R4
9,717 3,250 1,387 2,001 16,354
Government
R5
2,372 940 739 4,052
Savings
R6
3,272 860 548 4,680
Rest of World
R7
8,439 8,439
Total 24,996 35,807 9,717 3,250 16,354 4,052 4,680 8,439
23. Macro-SAMs and National Accounts
• A “macro” SAM is an extension of the basic national income identities as follows:
• Y = C + G + I + X-M (GDP by Expenditure)
• C + T + SH = Y (Household income)
• G + SG = T (Government budget)
• I = SH + SG + SROW (Savings-investment)
• X + SROW = M (Trade balance)
24. • We have so far saw and worked on the macro-SAM
• We will now build a slightly disaggregated micro-SAM
• Where can further data come from to further disaggregate the macro-SAM?
• SUT (on supply and use of commodities)
• Agricultural surveys (on production and utilization)
• Labor force surveys
• Household and enterprise surveys (on income and expenditure patterns)
• Balance of payments data
25. A micro-SAM
Value added
Intermediate demand
Marketed output
Own
consumption
Domestic
absorption
Imports
Imports
Household income sources &
income distribution
26. Interpreting SAM values → Exercise 2 (Task 2)
Complete “Task 2 Worksheet.xls” in the
“Exercises” folder. The solution file is in the
“Solutions” sub-folder.
Task 2:
Interpreting the micro-SAM
• Activity: Calculate and interpret various indicators of the Rwanda’s
economic structure
• Output shares,
• Trade shares,
• Demand shares,
• Household income and expenditure shares, and
• Macroeconomic indicators
28. • SAMs and SAM-based models are useful
when economic linkages and spillover effects
matter
• But many developing countries don’t have SAMs or they are outdated
• Even when SAMs exist, they may not be suitable
• Limited information on sectors of interest (e.g., agriculture and processing)
• Inappropriate household classification (farm/nonfarm, rural/urban)
• Not necessarily comparable across countries
• Solution is a toolkit for building standardized SAMs that adhere to common data standards
and have a detailed structure with a wide range of applications
Nexus SAM Toolkit reconciles data from multiple sources
• Core toolkit tailored to national statistical reports
• Final data reconciliation uses cross-entropy estimation
• Coded in Microsoft Excel® and GAMS®
Nexus SAM-building toolkit
29. Maize | Sorghum + millet | Rice | Wheat + barley | Other cereals | Pulses | Groundnuts | Other oilseeds | Cassava | Irish
potatoes | Sweet potatoes | Other roots | Leafy vegetables | Other vegetables | Sugarcane | Tobacco | Cotton + fibers | Nuts
| Bananas + plantains | Other fruits | Tea | Coffee | Cocoa | Cut flowers | Rubber | Other crops | Cattle | Raw milk | Poultry |
Eggs | Sheep + goats | Other livestock | Forestry | Aquaculture | Capture fisheries
Nexus 86 sector SAM structure
Agricultural Sectors & Products
Coal | Crude oil | Natural gas | Other mining | Meat | Fish + seafood | Dairy | Fruits + vegetables | Fats + oils | Maize milling |
Sorghum + millet milling | Rice milling | Wheat + barley milling | Other grain milling | Sugar refining | Coffee processing | Tea
processing | Other foods | Animal feed | Beverages | Tobacco | Cotton yarn | Textiles | Clothing | Leather + footwear | Wood
| Paper | Petroleum | Chemicals | Non-metal minerals | Metals + metal products | Machinery | Equipment | Vehicles | Other
manufacturing | Electricity + gas | Water supply + sewage | Construction
Industrial Sectors & Products
Wholesale + retail trade | Transportation + storage | Accommodation | Food services | Information + communication |
Finance + insurance | Real estate activities | Business services | Public administration | Education | Health + social work |
Other services
Service Sectors & Products
35
39
12
Crop land | Crop, livestock, mining and nonagricultural capital | Rural and urban labor by education category
Factors of Production
Rural farm and nonfarm households and urban households by national per capita expenditure quintiles
Household groups
13
15
30. Macro data
National accounts (SNA 2008)
Balance of payments (IMF BOP6)
Gov. finance (IMF GFSM2014)
Micro data
Agriculture production (FAOSTAT)
Industrial + economic surveys
Energy balance (IEA)
Trade flows (COMTRADE)
Tariffs (TRAINS)
Labor force surveys
Household surveys (LSMS)
Input-output table
Rebased national accounts
Agriculture censuses + surveys
Industrial firm surveys
SAM Data Sources & Nexus Toolkit
Nexus SAM Toolkit reconciles data from multiple sources
• Core toolkit tailored to national statistical reports
• Final data reconciliation uses cross-entropy estimation
• Coded in Microsoft Excel® and GAMS®
31. Nexus SAM Building Process
Step 1: Macro SAM
Single aggregate activity, commodity,
labor and household accounts
Step 2: Supply-Use Table
Disaggregate and balance activity and
commodity accounts
Extension: Regional disaggregation
Split activity, factors, and household
accounts
Step 3: Income Distribution
Disaggregate and balance labor and
household accounts
33. Multiplier Model: Standard SAM
Activities Commodities Factors
House-
holds
Exog.
demand
Total
A1 A2 C1 C2 F H E
A1 X1 X1
A2 X2 X2
C1 Z11 Z12 C1 E1 Z1
C2 Z21 Z22 C2 E2 Z2
F V1 V2 V
H V1 + V2 Y
E L1 L2 S E
X1 X2 Z1 Z2 V Y E
X Gross output of each activity (X1 and X2)
Z Total demand for each commodity (Z1 and Z2)
V Total factor income
Y Total household income
E Exogenous demand for each commodity (GOV, INV, EXP)
34. Multiplier Model: Coefficient matrix
Activities Commodities Factors
House-
holds
Exog.
demand
Total
A1 A2 C1 C2 F H E
A1 b1= X1/Z1 X1
A2 b2= X2/Z2 X2
C1 a11=Z11/X1 a12=Z12/X2 c1 = C1/Y E1 Z1
C2 a21=Z21/X1 a22=Z22/X2 c2 = C2/Y E2 Z2
F v1=V1/X1 v2=V2/X2 V
H 1 Y
E l1 = L1/Z1 l2 = L2/Z2 s = S/Y E
X1 X2 Z1 Z2 V Y E
a Technical coefficients (intermediate input shares)
b Share of domestic output in total demand
v Share of value-added (factor income) in gross output
l Share of the value of total demand from imports or commodity taxes
c Household consumption expenditure shares
s Household savings rate (i.e., savings as a share of household income)
35. Activities Commodities Factors
House-
holds
Exog.
demand
Total
A1 A2 C1 C2 F H E
A1 b1= X1/Z1 X1
A2 b2= X2/Z2 X2
C1 a11=Z11/X1 a12=Z12/X2 c1 = C1/Y E1 Z1
C2 a21=Z21/X1 a22=Z22/X2 c2 = C2/Y E2 Z2
F v1=V1/X1 v2=V2/X2 V
H 1 Y
E l1 = L1/Z1 l2 = L2/Z2 s = S/Y E
X1 X2 Z1 Z2 V Y E
Multiplier Model: Coefficient matrix
Domestic production
𝑋1 = 𝑏1𝑍1 𝑋2 = 𝑏2𝑍2
𝑌 = 𝑣1𝑋1 + 𝑣2𝑋2
= 𝑣1𝑏1𝑍1 + 𝑣2𝑏2𝑍2
Household income
Substitute X’s and Y’s
𝑍1 = 𝑎11𝑋1 + 𝑎12𝑋2 + 𝑐1𝑌 + 𝐸1
𝑍2 = 𝑎21𝑋1 + 𝑎22𝑋2 + 𝑐2𝑌 + 𝐸2
Demand equations
36. Multiplier Model: Coefficient matrix
1 − 𝑎11𝑏1 − 𝑐1𝑣1𝑏1 𝑍1 + −𝑎12𝑏2 − 𝑐1𝑣2𝑏2 𝑍2 = 𝐸1
Simplify and reorganize with E on the right-hand side
−𝑎21𝑏1 − 𝑐2𝑣1𝑏1 𝑍1 + 1 − 𝑎22𝑏2 − 𝑐2𝑣2𝑏2 𝑍2 = 𝐸2
1 − 𝑎11𝑏1 − 𝑐1𝑣1𝑏1 −𝑎12𝑏2 − 𝑐1𝑣2𝑏2
−𝑎21𝑏1 − 𝑐2𝑣1𝑏1 1 − 𝑎22𝑏2 − 𝑐2𝑣2𝑏2
𝑍1
𝑍2
=
𝐸1
𝐸2
In matrix format
𝐼 − 𝑀 𝑍 = 𝐸
or
∆𝑍 = (𝐼 − 𝑀)−1
× ∆𝐸
Change in
exogenous demand
(simulation shock)
Change in total
demand
(simulation result)
Multiplier matrix: identity matrix minus
coefficient matrix