By Holger Dalkman, Group Manager, Transport Research Laboratory (United Kingdom)

1. Insert the title of your presentation here Presented by Name Here Job Title - Date Policies towards a low carbon future for transport Holger Dalkmann 16.01.2009

3. Table of contents Page  Introduction Policy Instruments to tackle climate change Existing and future UNFCCC instruments Policy Scenarios for a low carbon future Recommendation: Process Steps 1 2 3 4 5

6. Sustainable Transport Strategy Responses Carbon Emissions CHOICE POTENTIAL STRATEGY RESPONSES – REDUCING GHG EMISSIONS AVOID IMPROVE SHIFT I I I R R R T T E E E P P NON-MOTORISED TRANSPORT Walking and Cycling PUBLIC MOTORISED TRANSPORT Public Transport - Bus, rail TRAVEL DOES NOT TAKE PLACE Need/desire to travel has been reduced INDIVIDUAL MOTORISED TRANSPORT Car, taxi Decision to travel or not to travel and by which mode affects fuel consumption, and therefore carbon emissions - Number of vehicles, level of congestion, driver behaviour, vehicle condition, fuel type REGULATORY INSTRUMENTS (R) , PLANNING INSTRUMENTS (P) ECONOMIC INSTRUMENTS (E) INFORMATION INSTRUMENTS (I) TECHNOLOGICAL INSTRUMENTS (T) AVAILABLE INSTRUMENTS

8. Stages of Transport Planning in Europe Goals Target-Group Financing Decision-making Process Historical Perspective Stage 1 before 1945 Own (military) interests of the state “ Benefit of the people” state budget Top-down Infrastructure as a merit good Stage 4 near future ? all stakeholders including future generations following the polluters-pay principle economical, social, and environmental accountable Full integration Stage 3 70´s – today Stakeholders (users and directly affected people) taxes and fees rational-political CBA with political bargaining Multi-stakeholder process Stage 2 1945 - 70´s state and all users of transport infrastructure (especially economy) general and petrol taxes rational-scientific Cost-Benefit-Analysis (CBA) attractive (car-) traffic as location factor

10. Motorization ADB estimates 2005, 2008, 2015 Trend Leapfrogging

11. Delhi Transport Source: ADB 2008

14. (Post-)Kyoto Instruments and their (upscale) potential Status-Quo Post 2012 CDM + + Programmatic CDM + ++ JI + + ETS 0 ++ Adaptation Fund 0 ++ Sectoral no lose 0 +++ CTM 0 +++

15. Page  Scenario 1 Trend Weak Link Scenario 2 Upscaling Strong Link REGULATORY INSTRUMENTS (R) , PLANNING INSTRUMENTS ECONOMIC INSTRUMENTS (E) INFORMATION INSTRUMENTS (I) TECHNOLOGICAL INSTRUMENTS (T) SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT INSTRUMENTS POST CDM , ETS POST JI Sectoral No lose Adaptation Fund POST 2012 INSTRUMENTS

16. Policy Scenarios: TREND vs Upscaling Post 2012 Success - Upscaling Strong Link between Post 2012 instruments and Sustainable Transport No lose sectoral targets in place (NAMA as a framework) Carbon Finance as a important driver for implementing Sustainable Transport Policy (High Incentive) National Target in place Urban Target established Adaptation Fund combined with mitigation actions Post 2012 Trend Weak Link between Post 2012 agreement and Sustainable Transport Extended flex mex (PoA CDM) but no major transport recognition Carbon Finance as a minor driver for Implementing Sustainable Transport Policy (Low Incentive) New methodologies, additionality no further barrier Adaptation Fund plays no role for transport

17. Policy Scenarios – Consequences for enabling Sustainable Transport Policy Post 2012 Trend Post 2012 Success - Upscaling Main responsibilities on national level – strong support from donor organisation needed Key role for international community – Implementation and Monitoring Strong shift of national financial investment towards low carbon transport solutions (carbon tax etc.) National government and urban decision-maker to set framework to combine carbon finance with local/national actions Integrate Climate Change into Transport Planning and Policy National Action Plans, Local Transport Plans needed

18. Process under Scenario 1 - Trend

19. Process under Scenario 2 - Upscaling