Counting Future Carbs and Decarbs: How to Know You are on a Carbon Diet
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By Lee Schipper, Project Scientist, Global Metropolitan Studies, University of California-Berkeley and Project Scientist, Stanford University
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Counting Future Carbs and Decarbs: How to Know You are on a Carbon Diet
- 1. Lee Schipper, Ph.D. Global Metropolitan Studies, UCB EMBARQ/CAI/World Bank 16 January 2009 Counting Future Carbs and Decarbs: How to Know You are on a Carbon Diet SCHIPPER ADB June 2008
- 3. SCHIPPER ADB June 2008
- 4. Asia: lumbering into modernity SCHIPPER ADB June 2008
- 5. SCHIPPER ADB June 2008
- 6. SCHIPPER ADB June 2008
- 7. Key Question: Is this path of motorization good? Inevitable or avoidable? Source: EMBARQ Motorization and Economic Growth: The China Syndrome?
- 8. WORLD ENERGY AND OIL USE: THE RISING ROLE OF TRANSPORT
- 9. WORLD CARBON EMISSIONS: TRANSPORT Roughly 25% of Global CO2 Emissions
- 12. How Many Cities or Countries Have an INTEGRATED Approach to Transport/CO2
- 13. “ ASIF” Decomposition Goal: Quantifying Changes in Components SCHIPPER ADB June 2008 Lesson : See and Attack All Components of Transport, Know the Numbers Well Enough to Measure Changes Air dispersion model; atmospheric chemistry; exposure and health effects. |Global CO2
- 18. Dieselization : Opportunity or Trap Monitoring Shows Little Savings in Europe Source:` official national data
- 20. It’s Not Just Before/After It’s With/Without Policies Dynamic Base-line & Project-line over time After J. Rogers, Trafalgar SA, Mexico and M Cordeiro, EMBARQ Time Emissions With & with-out Intervention difference Before & after project Baseline from counterfactual Actual development with intervention Widening gap between baseline and actual
- 21. It’s Not Just Before/After Doesn’t Always Work Out Dynamic Base-line & Project-line over time After J. Rogers, Trafalgar SA, Mexico and M Cordeiro, EMBARQ Time Emissions With & with-out Intervention difference Before & after project Baseline from counterfactual Actual development with intervention One-time offset Backfire?
- 23. Broader Approach to Co-Benefits Carbon Benefits Small Compared to Others
- 25. SCHIPPER DRAFT Costs Certainty levels Validation of Key Policies Broad Goals for improved traffic, lower emissions Philanthropy: Developer or Mayor Brag? Cost Depends on Desired Certainty What is Certainty Worth If Climate and Transport At Stake? Real Options Analysis/Co-benefits Choice (CO2, noise, safety) MEASUREMENT AND ACCURACY? You Get What You Pay For: Make Sure you Get What You Need After Nancy Kete, EMBARQ
- 28. Measuring Changes and Impacts Household impacts of transport costs Impacts of pricing on mobility, Vehicles revenues Measure elasticites Measure success In a timely way Policy Institutions Technology Infrastructure Operation Measure impacts of investments
- 29. Schipper ADB Transport Week Thanks Lee Schipper [email_address]