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Energy Use in Ontario for Investors
- 1. Post-‐Paris: Ontario June 7, 2016, Presentation to the Responsible Investment Association Dianne Saxe Environmental Commissioner 1
- 2. Overview — Three new laws since May 19 — Energy Use in Ontario — Climate related financial risk 2
- 3. Three new laws since May 19 — 172: Climate Change Mitigation and Low-‐Carbon Economy Act — 151: Waste-‐Free Ontario Act — 135: Energy Statute Law Amendment Act 3
- 4. Climate Cap and Trade — Climate Change Mitigation and Low-‐Carbon Economy Act — Legal requirement to cut GHGs, from 1990 baseline: — 15% by 2020. — 37% by 2030. — 80% by 2050! — Fossil fuel costs to rise — $1.9 B/year to Greenhouse Gas Reduction Account — To be spent as per Action Plan 4
- 5. Why 80%? — IPCC 5 computer model — Consistent with 2 degrees? — What’s not in the model? — Model may be way too optimistic… 5
- 6. Circular Economy — Waste-‐Free Ontario Act — Resource Recovery and Circular Economy Act — Individual producer responsibility — All forms of waste, not just packaging — No more diversion monopolies — Waste Diversion Transition Act — Blue Box stranded assets? 6
- 7. Energy — Energy Statute Law Amendment Act — Amends: — Green Energy Act — Disclosure of energy and water use — Access to usage data — Conservation plans — Electricity Act — Long term energy planning — Ontario Energy Board Act 7
- 8. Overview — Three new laws — Energy Use in Ontario — Climate related financial risk 8
- 9. Energy Conservation and Efficiency — eco.on.ca/reports/2016-‐ lets-‐get-‐serious/ 9
- 10. 80% fossil fuel dependent 10
- 11. 80% reduction by 2050? — Climate mitigation is mostly about energy — Reduction targets are total consumption, not per capita — Population to rise >50% — Reduce fossil fuels from 80% to 10% or less — In 34 years! — And we’re starting late 11
- 12. Energy use in Ontario 12 • Total use flat from 2007 to 2014 • Energy use per capita down 7%
- 13. Electricity use is down • Use down 6% from 2007 (8% excluding embedded gen.), summer peak down 17% • 91% low emission • Our smallest, cleanest major energy source 13
- 14. Transportation fuel: use is up • No dedicated conservation funding • Government targets: no action (10% Low Carbon Fuel Standard), or poor performance (land use; only 1% of the way towards 2020 EV target) 14
- 15. Natural gas: use is up • Twice as much energy use as electricity, but 1/6 the conservation spending ($66M in 2014) • Weather impact (e.g. 2014 “polar vortex”) — Price? 15
- 16. Policy bottlenecks — Fossil Fuel Subsidies — Inadequate data — Lopsided focus 16
- 17. End to fossil fuel subsidies? 17 • $628 M in Ontario tax breaks for fossil fuels • $650 B world • At cross-‐purposes to cap and trade • G7 pledge to eliminate by 2025
- 18. Transparency — Poor energy use data — Mandatory reporting of energy use for 15,000 buildings in the Broader Public Sector (O. Reg. 397/11) — Who are the energy hogs? 18
- 19. Admin & Storage Facilities 2,057,002,060 ekWh/yr Hospitals & Emergency Response 4,746,486,624 ekWh/yr Schools, Universities, Colleges and Libraries 8,548,905,751 ekWh/yr H2O & Sewage 1,595,722,106 ekWh/yr Community, Sports, & Rec Centres 1,774,408,680 ekWh/yr Where energy is used in the BPS
- 20. Large variations in energy intensity — Buildings with the same function perform very differently… 20
- 22. Transportation: what matters most — Largest source of emissions but toughest to tackle — Key levers: — Land use planning (reduce travel distances) — Transit/shared transportation (reduce vehicle km per person) — Cleaner/more efficient vehicles (reduce energy/emissions intensity) 22
- 23. Overview — Three new laws — Energy Use in Ontario — Climate Related Financial Risk 23
- 24. Which risks? — Mitigation — Energy — Adaptation — Water — Divesting from energy sector not enough 24
- 25. Getting ready for massive disruptions — 100 year storm every 10 minutes? — wildfires — floods — droughts — storms — heat waves — Who’s insurable? 25
- 26. More Gradual, Perhaps — Sea level rise (what’s in danger?) — Coastal erosion — Loss of coral reefs — Salt water intrusion — Loss of ice roads — Heat and water stress — Loss of species — Diseases and pests — What will still grow? — Uncontrollable migration? — When will the Arctic be ice free? 26
- 27. Climate-‐Related Financial Risk Disclosure — Financial Stability Board Task Force — inadequate disclosure of climate risk a threat to world financial system — Curtis Ravenel meetings in Toronto — Koskie Minsky opinion on fiduciary duty — Our letters to OSC and CAPSA: — Ontario needs to catch up 27
- 28. Conclusions — Wrenching shifts in the rules — Huge changes needed in energy, some already happening — Climate-‐related financial risks in most sectors — Financial industry role in the transition? – be a winner, not a victim 28
- 29. Thanks! Sign up for ECO updates and blog at eco.on.ca Dianne Saxe Environmental Commissioner 29