Presentation given by David Wood at Technology Ventures Conference on 23rd June 2014, hosted by CUTEC (Cambridge University Technology Enterprise Club). See http://tvc2014.cutec.org/ for more details about TVC2104.

1. Future of our economy
What Smartphones Teach Us About
the Radical Future of Technology,
Business, & Society
Principal, Delta WisdomChair, London Futurists
David Wood
@dw2

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Page 2
Preamble:
What I take for granted in this presentation
A. Many radical technologies are poised with the potential to radically
improve human experience
– Examples include robotics, self-driving vehicles, renewable energy systems,
3D printing, artificial intelligence, augmented reality, synthetic biology,
genetic re-engineering, brain scanning, smart mind-enhancement drugs,
and rejuvenation biotech
B. But there’s nothing automatic about the development of any new
technology
– Many roadblocks can delay its implementation and adoption
– See http://anticipating2025.com/book/ for more details
C. Likewise there’s no guarantee that a successful new industry can form
around these technologies
– Even though it would ultimately be good for everyone if it did

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Preamble (continued):
What I take for granted in this presentation
D. Potential breakthrough new industries can draw lessons from the
successes and failures of the smartphone industry
– Beware any calls to rush ahead into the future full of ambition & confidence
– It’s worth taking the time to “look in the rear-view mirror” to observe the
factors that influenced the success and failure of major smartphone
companies
E. It’s better to learn these lessons in advance, if possible
– Rather than to repeat the mistakes in the years ahead in the new industry
F. Of course, circumstances may change
– Lessons from smartphones may not apply in the future
– But it’s worthwhile understanding these lessons first, before taking any
conscious decision to ignore them!

4. Vision: 1998

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What Smartphones Teach Us About the Radical
Future of Technology, Business, & Society
1. Disruptive tech can take a long time in gestation
– Even though it may eventually seem to blossom quickly

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The (slow) emergence of tablets
http://joyreactor.com/post/300138
Bill Gates introduces Tablet PC.
No one cares.
Steve Jobs introduces the iPad.
The world pisses itself like an
excited dog.
Steve Ballmer introduces Surface.
People accuse Microsoft of
stealing the idea from Apple.

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27 January, 2010
“8 Things That Suck About the iPad”
http://gizmodo.com/5458382/8-things-that-suck-about-the-ipad
1. Big, Ugly Bezel
2. No Multitasking
3. No Cameras
4. Touch Keyboard
5. No HDMI Out
6. The Name “iPad”
7. No Flash
8. Adapters, Adapters, Adapters
(“…You need an adapter for USB for god’s sake”)
9. It’s Not Widescreen
10. Doesn’t Support T-Mobile 3G
(“it uses microSIMs that literally no one else uses”)
11. A Closed App Ecosystem.
http://dw2blog.com/2010/01/28/the-ipad-more-for-less/
The (slow) emergence of tablets
“iFail”
“Not game-changing
like the iPhone was”
– Robert Scoble

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ipad#Model_comparison
http://thenextweb.com/apple/2012/10/02/rare-full-recording-of-1983-steve-jobs-speech-reveals-
apple-had-been-working-on-ipad-for-27-years/
iPad roadmap:
Incremental delivery towards a vision
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2010 2011 2012 2013
iPad iPad 2 iPad 3rd gen iPad 4th gen iPad Air
2014
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
“Apple’s strategy is really simple. What we want to do is we want to put an
incredibly great computer in a book that you can carry around with you
and learn how to use in 20 minutes…
“And we really want to do it with a radio link in it so you don’t have to
hook up to anything and you’re in communication with all of these larger
databases and other computers.”
Steve Jobs,
1983,
International
Design
Conference,
Aspen

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23 October, 2012
“Apple sold their 100 millionth
iPad two weeks ago”
“We sold more iPads in the June
quarter than any PC maker sold of
their entire line-up”
Market-cap > $620 billion
>4 years to sell 100M iPhones
<3 years to sell 100M iPads
www.engadget.com/2012/10/23/apple-ipad-mini-liveblog/
www.forbes.com/sites/benzingainsights/2012/08/21/apple-now-most-valuable-company-in-history/
The (slow) emergence of tablets
Apple Now Most Valuable Company in History

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Kindle books vs. physical books
www.theverge.com/2012/9/6/3298533/amazon-kindle-event-september-6th-video-watch
E-books leapfrog
physical books at Amazon
in less than 3 years
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

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Progress by combination
Smart combination of multiple tech improvements
• Cheap digital storage
• Low energy screens, pleasant to look at
• High-speed “Whisper net” wireless distribution
• Customisable (Linux/Android) software platform
• Huge catalog of books available to purchase
+ Innovative business model
Improvements in computers:
Performance
Applicability (digitisation)

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What Smartphones Teach Us About the Radical
Future of Technology, Business, & Society
1. Disruptive tech can take a long time in gestation
– Even though it may eventually seem to blossom quickly
2. Disruptive products rely on smart combination
– Smart tech, innovative business model, powerful content
– Delivered incrementally (roadmaps are important!)
3. There are huge amounts of hard work setting the scene

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Drama in the last five years

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Causes of corporate stumbles
Corporate inertia
Key skills missing

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Nokia’s biggest mistake (?)
But if some ultimate cause needed to be named,
Ollila says that it would be the problems that
Nokia experienced in software know-how.
The problem was recognised already in the 1990s.
There were plans to fix them, but they were not
implemented.
http://www.zdnet.com/nokia-where-it-all-went-wrong-by-the-man-who-
made-it-the-worlds-biggest-mobile-company-7000023046/
http://www.hs.fi/talous/a1381973653499
Jorma Ollila, CEO of Nokia 1992-2006, interviewed in October 2013
Large-scale software? Design? Integration? The new new thing??
Knowing-doing gap!
http://dw2blog.com/2010/09/13/accelerating-nokias-renewal/

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Not spotting the change
Phone-centric worldview
• Telephony was the most important app
• Phone manufacturers should prioritise
meeting the requests of network
operators
• Third party apps were a nice “extra”, but
didn’t make any fundamental difference
• Most innovation in smartphones came
from within the mobile industry, rather
than from Silicon Valley
• The US market was a laggard in the
adoption of smartphone technology; it
was better to invest in Japan, China, or
even India, than in the US.
Internet-centric worldview
• The Internet (and particularly the web
browser) was now the most important
application
• Phone manufacturers should prioritise
meeting the requests of Silicon Valley
entrepreneurs
• Third party apps – and, more generally,
openness to external innovators – could
bring fundamental new value
• The US market would dramatically
influence the way new smartphone
technology was adopted around the
world.
Not being able to act on spotting the change

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Causes of corporate stumbles
Corporate inertia
Technical debt
Loss of vision
Ecosystem failure
Key skills missing

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African proverb: Travelling
If you want to go fast, go alone;
If you want to go far, go together
Products need speed
Platforms enable long-distance travel
(Platforms need speed too)2014
2019

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Positive feedback cycles
Design,
Manufacturing
Computers

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Positive feedback cycles
Software tools
(debuggers,
compilers…)
Software

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Positive feedback cycles
Education
Technology

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Positive feedback cycles
Education
Technology
PeopleNetworks
=> Technology is
likely to improve,
faster and faster

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Positive feedback cycles
Developers
Technology
Platform
Consumers
Business
Partners

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Leading in a converged world
• Platform leadership
A. Nurturing insight into technology trends
B. Flexible, future-proof architecture
C. Interfaces that enable virtuous cycles
• Market leadership
D. Business model innovation
E. Developer motivation
F. User motivation
• Execution leadership
G. Continuous integration
H. Enterprise-scale agility
I. Lean processes (focus)

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Building a winning alliance, despite
conflicts of interest
Smartphones
Smart
networks
Developers
It helps to have an insanely great product!
It helps to have powerful allies!

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What Smartphones Teach Us About the Radical
Future of Technology, Business, & Society
1. Disruptive tech can take a long time in gestation
– Even though it may eventually seem to blossom quickly
2. Disruptive products rely on smart combination
– Smart tech, innovative business model, powerful content
– Delivered incrementally (roadmaps are important!)
3. There are huge amounts of hard work setting the scene
– Platform skills, Marketing skills, Execution skills
– Patient investors; the right top management (no knowing-doing gap)
4. Don’t neglect culture engineering
– User expectations , successful memes, DXE, ‘political’ alliances

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http://smartphonesandbeyond.com/
For more info
Available
summer
2014