The document summarizes the latest monthly Reuters Global FX Poll, which surveys currency predictions from global banks and financial institutions. It provides charts displaying the historical exchange rates for GBP/USD, GBP/EUR, and EUR/USD alongside the ranges and averages of forecasts for those currency pairs over the next 12 months. The majority of predictions for each time period are clustered within the darker shaded areas on the charts. The document notes that while there are no guarantees, the charts suggest exchange rates have a higher probability of finishing within those areas. It aims to help businesses better assess exchange rate expectations and make more informed planning and hedging decisions.
1. Reuters Global FX Poll – October 2017
To assist businesses in understanding both the upside and downside potential for exchange
rates when making planning and hedging decisions, here is the latest market forecasts poll
from Thomson Reuters. The Reuters Global FX Poll is a monthly survey of currency
predictions from a collection of participants such as global banks, investment banks and FX
brokers. This is published by Reuters every month and distributed to its clients. The data is
strictly Thomson Reuters proprietary content, and no redistribution is allowed.
This presentation is not a financial promotion and has been prepared and approved by Western Union International Bank GmbH, UK Branch. The information contained within this presentation does not constitute financial advice or a financial recommendation. The
information set out in this presentation is general in nature and has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. The Western Union Company provides its Foreign Exchange Options services in the UK through Western Union’s
wholly-owned subsidiary, Western Union International Bank GmbH, UK Branch (WUIB). The exchange rate predictions displayed in this presentation are no guarantee of future results, and are not intended in any way as a recommendation to trade, or advice on whether to buy
or sell. They are for informational purposes only and are subject to change. The exchange rates shown are also indicative only, and may vary compared to exchange rates quoted for transactions.
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2. 1.38
1.40
1.42
1.50
1.35
1.36
1.38
1.40
1.30
1.28
1.26 1.261.25
1.20
1.16
1.20
$1.13
$1.18
$1.23
$1.28
$1.33
$1.38
$1.43
$1.48
$1.13
$1.18
$1.23
$1.28
$1.33
$1.38
$1.43
$1.48
Feb 2017 Jun 2017 Oct 2017 Feb 2018 Jun 2018 Oct 2018
GBP/USD Forecasts – October’s Reuters Poll Predictions Strictly Thomson Reuters proprietary content. No redistribution allowed.
The chart below on the left displays the historical exchange rate alongside the range of forecasts for the next 12 months. The darker shaded area on the chart shows you where the majority
of individual forecasts are clustered (1 standard deviation either side of the average - 68% of predictions), while the lighter shaded area captures the entire range of forecasts from high to
low. While there are no guarantees, the chart ‘suggests’ that there is a higher probability of the exchange rate finishing each forecast period somewhere inside the darker shaded area. For
businesses, this chart helps you assess your rate expectations and allows you to make much more informed planning and hedging decisions.
GBP/USD – 1, 3, 6, and 12 month predictions Individual Bank Predictions
6 month (April 2018) predictions from a small selection of recognised banks
Source: Reuters October 2017 FX Poll (a total of 56 organisations submitted predictions). Strictly Thomson Reuters proprietary content. No redistribution allowed.
Important Note: The exchange rate predictions displayed above are no guarantee of future results, and are not intended in any way as a recommendation to trade, or advice on whether to buy or sell. They are for informational purposes only and are
subject to change. The exchange rates shown are also indicative only, and may vary compared to exchange rates quoted for transactions.
1m (Nov 17) 3m (Jan 18) 6m (Apr 18) 12m (Oct 18)
Average
$1.25
$1.33
$1.28
$1.27
$1.30
$1.25
$1.29
$1.23
$1.39 $1.38
1.32 1.32
1.33
3. 1.15
1.18
1.23
1.14
1.15
1.16
1.17
1.11
1.10
1.08
1.06
1.09 1.08
1.05
1.00
1.13
1.12
1.11
€ 0.95
€ 1.00
€ 1.05
€ 1.10
€ 1.15
€ 1.20
€ 1.25
€ 0.95
€ 1.00
€ 1.05
€ 1.10
€ 1.15
€ 1.20
€ 1.25
Feb 2017 Jun 2017 Oct 2017 Feb 2018 Jun 2018 Oct 2018
GBP/EUR Forecasts – October’s Reuters Poll Predictions Strictly Thomson Reuters proprietary content. No redistribution allowed.
The chart below on the left displays the historical exchange rate alongside the range of forecasts for the next 12 months. The darker shaded area on the chart shows you where the majority
of individual forecasts are clustered (1 standard deviation either side of the average - 68% of predictions), while the lighter shaded area captures the entire range of forecasts from high to
low. While there are no guarantees, the chart ‘suggests’ that there is a higher probability of the exchange rate finishing each forecast period somewhere inside the darker shaded area. For
businesses, this chart helps you assess your rate expectations and allows you to make much more informed planning and hedging decisions.
GBP/EUR – 1, 3, 6, and 12 month predictions Individual Bank Predictions
6 month (April 2018) predictions from a small selection of recognised banks
Source: Reuters October 2017 FX Poll (a total of 45 organisations submitted predictions). Strictly Thomson Reuters proprietary content. No redistribution allowed.
Important Note: The exchange rate predictions displayed above are no guarantee of future results, and are not intended in any way as a recommendation to trade, or advice on whether to buy or sell. They are for informational purposes only and are
subject to change. The exchange rates shown are also indicative only, and may vary compared to exchange rates quoted for transactions.
1.22
Average
€ 1.12
€ 1.11
€ 1.09
€ 1.06
€ 1.15
€ 1.12
€ 1.15
€ 1.14
€ 1.09
€ 1.10
1m (Nov 17) 3m (Jan 18) 6m (Apr 18) 12m (Oct 18)
4. 1.22
1.25
1.28
1.30
1.20
1.21
1.22
1.24
1.16
1.15
1.14 1.15
1.15
1.10
1.09
1.08
1.18
1.18
1.20
$1.03
$1.08
$1.13
$1.18
$1.23
$1.28
$1.03
$1.08
$1.13
$1.18
$1.23
$1.28
Feb 2017 Jun 2017 Oct 2017 Feb 2018 Jun 2018 Oct 2018
EUR/USD Forecasts – October’s Reuters Poll Predictions Strictly Thomson Reuters proprietary content. No redistribution allowed.
The chart below on the left displays the historical exchange rate alongside the range of forecasts for the next 12 months. The darker shaded area on the chart shows you where the majority
of individual forecasts are clustered (1 standard deviation either side of the average - 68% of predictions), while the lighter shaded area captures the entire range of forecasts from high to
low. While there are no guarantees, the chart ‘suggests’ that there is a higher probability of the exchange rate finishing each forecast period somewhere inside the darker shaded area. For
businesses, this chart helps you assess your rate expectations and allows you to make much more informed planning and hedging decisions.
EUR/USD – 1, 3, 6, and 12 month predictions Individual Bank Predictions
6 month (April 2018) predictions from a small selection of recognised banks
Source: Reuters October 2017 FX Poll (a total of 61 organisations submitted predictions). Strictly Thomson Reuters proprietary content. No redistribution allowed.
Important Note: The exchange rate predictions displayed above are no guarantee of future results, and are not intended in any way as a recommendation to trade, or advice on whether to buy or sell. They are for informational purposes only and are
subject to change. The exchange rates shown are also indicative only, and may vary compared to exchange rates quoted for transactions.
$1.25 $1.24
Average
$1.20
$1.16
$1.15
$1.19
$1.09
$1.18
$1.15
$1.17
1m (Nov 17) 3m (Jan 18) 6m (Apr 18) 12m (Oct 18)