Lake Chad is a biological hotspot and a source of food and water for millions of people in Central Africa. Lake Chad has shrunk by more than nine-tenths since the mid-1960s because of water diversion, population growth, and climate change. This presentation considers the issues facing Lake Chad and tables a daring proposal to safeguard it.

1. Safeguarding Lake
Chad
Olivier Serrat
December 2023

2. TheSetting
Lake Chad is a biological hotspot and a source
of food and water for millions of people in
CentralAfrica. Lake Chad has shrunk by more
than nine-tenths since the mid-1960s because
of water diversion, population growth, and
climate change.This presentation considers
the issues facing Lake Chad and tables a
daring proposal to save it.
Located at the conjunction of Chad,
Cameroon, Nigeria, and Niger in the Sahelian
zone of CentralAfrica, Lake Chad supports
unique ecosystems and biodiversity and
provides food and water to approximately 30
million people.
Lake Chad may vanish over the next 20 years
and spark one of the world's greatest
humanitarian crises.
Lake Chad as Seen from Apollo-7, 1968

3. LakeChad:An
Overview
The Partitioning of Africa
• The Berlin Conference (1884–1885) regulated European colonization and trade in Africa and
unleashed a veritable scramble.
• European powers partitionedAfrica from their capitals with little knowledge of its ethnic
composition, geography, or history.
• It is a legacy of colonialism that, post-independence, four former colonies of France (Chad and
Niger), Germany (Cameroon), and Great Britain (Nigeria) share access to Lake Chad and it
fast-disappearing hydrospheric, biospheric, and lithospheric resources.
Hydrosphere
• Lake Chad is nestled in the low spot of the basin of a much larger ancient sea, viz., Mega Chad,
that would be the world's largest lake, be it saline or freshwater, if it still existed.
• Lake Chad lies in the central semiarid tropical (Sahel) zone of Africa. It has no important
outflows and benefits mainly from theChari (Shari) River via the Logone tributary—sourced
from the western area of theCentralAfrican Republic, northern Cameroon, and southern
Chad—which accounts for about 90–95% of inflow; the rest is contributed by the Komadugu-
Yobe River and smaller tributaries such as the Ngadda River andYedseram River, sourced from
Nigeria.
• Until the 1960s, Lake Chad was the fourth largest lake in Africa and the sixth largest lake in the
world: however, its surface area has since dwindled from 26,000 square kilometers (10,000
square miles) in 1963 to less than 1,500 square kilometers (580 square miles), or about 5% of
its original area, today.

4. LakeChad:An
Overview
Lake Chad Basin (2009)
Lake Chad, 1973 and 2017

5. LakeChad:An
Overview
• The soils around Lake Chad once supported woodland but
human activities and reduced moisture from climate
change and water diversion have reduced the diversity of
plant life.
• Habitat loss, hunting, and competition from livestock have
depleted wildlife: leopards and lions have been eliminated,
rhinoceroses have been reduced; but hippopotamuses and
crocodiles still inhabit Lake Chad's waters.
• There are many water and shore birds as well as terrestrial
birds.Amphibians and reptiles include Nile crocodiles, rock
pythons, and spitting cobras.
• Lake Chad remains an important fishery).To note,
fishermen landed 200,000 metric tons every year in the
1960s, 60,000–120,000 tons per year in the 1980s, and
50,000–60,000 tons per year nowadays.
• The trend is toward decreased diversity and lower levels of
biological productivity.
Biosphere
The Biodiversity of Lake Chad

6. LakeChad:An
Overview
Lithosphere
• The Lake Chad Basin contain concentrations of fossils and oil
exceeding 1.5 billion barrels of proven reserves was
discovered north of Lake Chad. Oil is Chad's primary source of
public revenue. Gold is found in various parts of Chad and is
mined in the southwestern part of the country. Other mineral
deposits are bauxite, natron, titanium, and uranium.
People & Economy
• From about 7 million in the 1960s, the population of the Lake
Chad Basin has experienced rapid growth (2.5–3.0%) and is
currently estimated to be over 30 million people, most of
whom eke a living on the south bank of Lake Chad.
• There are more than 70 ethnic groups around Lake Chad. All
rely on Lake Chad for food and water security and conflicts are
escalating, with the four countries along the lake facing
extreme poverty.
• The Lake Chad population depends for 80–90% of its
livelihoods on subsistence (and some commercial) agriculture,
fisheries, and animal husbandry, usually in combination.Crop
yields are very low and stagnant.
Transportation
• Watercraft made of papyrus-reed or sewn planks are used for
fishing but Lake Chad is little used for commercial navigation.
Lake Chad Livelihoods

7. LakeChad:An
Overview
TotalArea (km2) AreaWithin
Basin (km2)
% ofTotalArea
of Basin
% of Country in
Basin
Chad 1,284,000 1,046,196 43.8 81.5
Niger 1,267,000 691,473 28.9 54.6
Central African
Republic
622,984 219,410 9.2 35.2
Nigeria 923,768 179,282 7.5 19.4
Sudan 475,440 50,775 2.1 10.7
Algeria 1,861,484 101,048 4.2 5.4
Cameroon 2,381,740 93,451 3.9 3.9
Libya 1,759,540 7,065 0.3 0.4
Note:The hydrologically closed catchment of Lake Chad covers 2,500,000 square kilometers,
equivalent to about 8% of the African continent, and straddles eight countries: Algeria, Libya,
Niger, Chad, Sudan, Nigeria, Cameroon, and the Central African Republic.
The Lake Chad Basin

8. LakeChad:
KeyChallenges
Developmental Pressures
• The Lake Chad Basin Commission and the United Nations Environment Programme have
charged that inefficient damming and unsustainable irrigation in the countries bordering the
lake are partly responsible for its shrinkage.TheWorldWildlife Fund has specifically pointed to
the diversion of water from the Chari River to irrigation projects and dams along the Jama'are
and Hadejia Rivers, which later form theYobe River in northeastern Nigeria.
• Specifically, Coe and Foley (2001) determined that irrigation had a modest impact on Lake
Chad over the period 1953–1979 but that it had increased four-fold over the period 1983–1994.
Coe and Foley (2001) attributed about 50% of the decrease in the Lake Chad’s size since the
1960s to human water use and the remainder to shifting climate patterns that may also have
been affected by loss of vegetation from overgrazing hence a drier climate. As Lake Chad
dries up, farmers and cattle herders move to greener areas where they compete for land
resources with host communities; others migrate to cities for menial jobs or roam the streets
as beggars.
Climate Change
• A population explosion and resulting resource overuse is not breaking news but the receding
waters of Lake Chad also owe to a reduction of precipitation, induced by climate change.
Climate change is set to have a particularly serious impact on the Sahel. Climate change
affects all natural capital (e.g., biodiversity, food, forest, land, water).The shrinking lake hosts
fewer fish and other species. In an area where most of the population lives from subsistence
agriculture, fisheries, and animal husbandry, the predicted 2°C increase by 2050 could lead to
a 15–20% reduction in food production.
Reference: Coe, M., & Foley, J. (2001) Human and natural impacts on the water resources of the
Lake Chad basin. Journal of Geophysical Research, 106(D4), 3349–3356.

9. LakeChad:
KeyChallenges
Conflict
• The shrinking of Lake Chad, the ever-greater variability in
local precipitation due to climate change, and rising
temperatures have eroded social cohesion and trust and
encouraged different types of self-help survival measures.
• Arms trafficking and smuggling, exacerbated by the porous
borders betweenCameroon, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria, is on
the rise; youth is recruited by bandits; and increasingly violent
clashes take place between farmers and herders in
consequence of cross-border transhumance.
• The uprising of Boko Haram, a militant Islamist group
operating from the north-eastern Borno State of Nigeria since
2009, has added further pressures on Lake Chad. Conflict
impact agricultural, fishing, and pastoral livelihood; markets
and trade; and other income generating activities.
• Over 2.3 million people across the region are displaced; over 5
million are struggling to access enough food to survive; and
half a million children are suffering from severe acute
malnutrition, according to the UN High Commissioner for
Refugees, because of a conflict that shows little sign of ending
despite the efforts of a joint multinational task force from
Benin, Cameroon, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria.
Lake Chad Livelihoods
The Climate ConflictTrap

10. LakeChad:
KeyChallenges
Governance
• On May 22, 1964, Chad, Cameroon, Niger, and Nigeria established the Lake Chad Basin
Commission to help manage the waters of Lake Chad.The CentralAfrican Republic and Libya
joined the Lake Chad Basin Commission in 1994 and 2008, respectively; Egypt, the
Democratic Republic of Congo, the Republic of Congo, and Sudan hold observer status.The
Lake Chad Basin Commission is funded by contributions from the six member states, with
headquarters in N'Djamena,Chad.
• The Lake Chad Basin Commission faces seemingly insurmountable challenges:
• Development Policies.With only 5% what surface area it had in the 1960s remaining,
development policies that focus on short-term solutions, such as additional water diversion
for irrigation, are a grave concern. Large-scale structural solutions such asTransaqua may be
last-ditch actions.
• Population Growth and Displacement.The Lake Chad basin is home to about 30 million
people, many of them among the poorest in the world.The combined effects of overuse,
climate change, and desertification have displaced populations and exacerbated food
insecurity.
• International Cooperation. Managing the shared water resources of Lake Chad across
different countries is not easy.
• Security. Beginning in the 1980s, armed criminal groups and Islamic extremists have taken
refuge around Lake Chad, increasing stress on natural resources and aggravating population
displacement.
• Financial Challenges.The annual budget of the Lake Chad Basin Commission amounts to a
mere $1 million.

11. Safeguarding
LakeChad:A
Proposal
• The Lake Chad area holds unparalleled ecological significance and is home to 30
million people. Despite that, the Lake Chad area has attracted little investment
from its riparian states or from technical and financial partners (e.g., AfDB,AFD,
the European Union,GIZ,GEF, UNDP, UNEP, UNESCO, theWorld Bank). A desk
review of past approaches reveals siloed projects, each reflecting the orientations
of donors.
Review of Past Approaches
• First proposed in the 1970s,Transaqua is a large-scale water infrastructure project
that calls for the construction of a 2,400-kilometer canal to replenish Lake Chad
with water transferred from the Congo River Basin. At the InternationalConference
on Lake Chad held in Abuja, Nigeria from 26 February 26 to March 1, 2018, the
Lake Chad Basin Commission endorsedTransaqua as a preferred option after state-
owned PowerChina and Bonifica, a consulting and engineering company, offered
to support the investment. But, key players have not disclosed their positions and
the Democratic Republic of Congo, which would host most of the construction
works to allocate water from its territories, has predictably raised concerns.
Transaqua

12. Safeguarding
LakeChad:A
Proposal
The Rationale for Action
Lake Chad could disappear within the next 20 years. If so, the question is: Can
Lake Chad be saved? Every day, in a veritable regional crisis, tens of millions
of people around Lake Chad struggle to survive. It goes without saying that
local communities and their leaders should care about safeguarding Lake
Chad; but so should, much more intently, decision makers, the donor
community, global society, international organizations, non-government
organizations, and policy makers.
Lake Chad is a case study in sustainable development, a veritable "Gordian
knot of problems". Remarkably, however, the convergence of the complex
causes impacting Lake Chad could yield synergistic improvements across the
entirety of the Sustainable Development Goals that theGeneral Assembly of
the United Nations endorsed on September 15, 2015 to create a better world
by 2030 in the five critical areas of people, planet, prosperity, peace, and
partnership.

13. Safeguarding
LakeChad:A
Proposal
A Proposal
• Governance has to do with the laws, norms, policies,
practices, and rules that govern human behavior.
Necessarily, therefore, governance must address such
matters as who makes decisions, how scientific
information for decision-making is generated, how
and decisions are made and carried out, and how
stakeholders can participate in the process.
• A commission is appointed, usually on a temporary
basis, to carry out specific tasks or investigations.An
authority is an organization or body that, buttressed
by enabling acts granting it legitimacy, has the power
to make decisions and enforce rules in a specific field
or area.
• If Lake Chad is to be saved, the Lake Chad Basin
Commission should be turned into an authority.The
objective would be to establish improved institutional
and organizational arrangements for managing the
biotic, land, and water resources of the Lake Chad
Basin.To mobilize and galvanize support from a wide
range of development partners, the six member states
of the Lake Chad Basin Commission would need to
promptly finalize the design of the Lake Chad Basin
Authority and the design of sub-basin institutional
structures.

14. Safeguarding
LakeChad:A
Proposal
An Approach: Future Search Conferencing
• The Lake Chad Basin Commission should hold a FutureSearch Conference on Safeguarding
Lake Chad to formulate a clear and powerful image of the future and enlist commitment.
• Future Search conferencing is a system-wide, task-focused, strategic planning tool that enables
potentially conflicting groups to find ground for common, constructive action.
• Future Search conferences are held over three days to help groups identify a shared vision of the
future. Specifically, in four or five sessions each lasting half a day, participants (a) focus on the
past (i.e., highlights and milestones, (b) focus on the present (i.e., external trends), (c) focus on
the present (i.e., responses to trends, owning actions, (d) focus on the future (i.e., ideal
scenarios), (e) discover common ground, (f) confirm common ground, and (g) plan action.
• The Future Search conference should include representatives of theAfrican Union, the
Economic Community of WestAfrican States, local communities, policy makers, decision
makers, the donor community, the International Network of Basin Organizations, international
organizations, and nongovernment organizations.TheAfrican Network of Basin Organizations
would chair the Future Search conference; the Lake Chad Basin Commission would serve as
facilitator and logistics manager.

15. Quick
Response
Codes
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