The document discusses the impacts of climate change on health and outlines Joan Ballester's work on climate and health issues. It provides an overview of Earth systems models and their evolution from focusing on individual components like atmosphere and oceans to integrated models. It also discusses regional climate models and urban climate models. The rest of the document describes Ballester's projects on analyzing health impacts and developing early warning systems, including the EARLY-ADAPT project which examines mortality and morbidity data at various geographical levels in Spain and Catalonia.

1. Canvi Climàtic i
Impacte sobre la Salut
Joan Ballester
Programa de Clima i Salut (CLIMA)
Institut de Salut Global de Barcelona (ISGlobal)
joanballester.eu + early-adapt.eu + heathealth.eu
Emergència climàtica: reptes i propostes per a la ciutat
Salut i emergència climàtica
Barcelona, 8 de Febrer del 2022

2. Earth Systems Models, Today
Graphic: energy.gov
1970s :: Atmosphere -> Land -> Ocean -> Aerosols -> Carbon Cycle -> Biogeochemistry :: Now

3. Predictability of the Climate System
Bauer et al. (2015)
“The quiet revolution of numerical weather prediction”
Forecasting
Skill
3 days ahead
5 days ahead
7 days ahead
10 days ahead

4. Earth System Model Regional Climate Model Urban Climate Model
El Niño, Climate Dynamics,
Tropical Infectious Diseases, ...
Climate Forecasting,
Early Warning Systems, ...
Mortality, Air Pollution,
Social Inequality, ...
Climate Models: from Global to Local

5. Land Use Map
based on Local Climate Zones
Temperature at 100 meters
from Urban Climate Model
Deaths
from Individual Records
Barcelona Metropolitan Area
Heat Island Effect: Urban Climate Models
M. Marí
Dell’Olmo

6. Projections of Temperature Attributable Mortality
Martínez-Solanas,
Quijal-Zamorano et al. (2021)
a) Temperature (ºC) b) Attributable Fraction (%)

7. Projections of Temperature Attributable Mortality
RCP8.5 (2070-2099)
b) AF (%): Cold Days
a) AF (%): All Days c) AF (%): Warm Days

8. Adaptation by Causes of Death in Spain
Achebak et al. 2020
Respiratory deaths
Achebak et al. 2019
Cardiovascular deaths

9. Daily Environmental Exposures
- Climate Variables
- 7 Air Pollutants
- Desert Dust
- Influenza-like Illnesses
Societal Data
- Social Structure
- Economy
- Demography
- Inequalities, e.g. Gender Gap
Daily Health Outcomes
- Deaths
- Hospitalizations
- Pregnancy / Births
- Occupational Accidents
7x
EARLY-ADAPT (2021-26) .

10. EARLY-ADAPT (2021-26) .
Catalonia Barcelona
Spain
Mortality, Morbidity, Births
Since 1980
8124 Municipalities
Sex, Age, Cause (ICD-9/10)
Mortality, Morbidity, Covid-19
Since 2000
400 Micro-Areas
Sex, Age, Cause (ICD-9/10)

11. Heat-Health Early Warning System (2022-24)
Temperature Temperature Attributable Mortality
Quijal-Zamorano
et al. (in prep)
--- NEW!! ---

12. www.joanballester.eu
www.heathealth.eu
www.early-adapt.eu
EARLY-ADAPT has received funding from
the European Research Council (ERC) under
the European Union’s Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme
(Grant agreement No. 865564)