Temporal and spatial analysis of the growth dynamics of large-scale tree plantations in tropical and subtropical areas

Montpellier, July 8-9 ,2019
Adrien Péroches
Research Program
« Forest, Trees & Agroforestry »
Temporal and spatial analysis of
the growth dynamics of large-
scale tree plantations in tropical
and subtropical areas
Photo : D. Louppe

Objectives of the study
 General context of forest plantations worldwide and more particularly in tropical and sub-tropical areas
 Evolution of planted areas and roundwood production (Timber, woodfuel, pulp, protection)
 Typology of large-scale tree plantations in tropical and subtropical areas
 identification of discriminating factors, description of identified types (localisation, planted species,
covered areas, …)
 Spatial and temporal distribution of diverse plantation types and analyses of regional and local dynamics
 Trends in South-America, East and South-East Asia, Africa and Oceania
 Outlook of the evolution of tree plantations in tropical and subtropical areas
 Production and sustainabilty
2

Definitions and Methodology
 What is a forest plantation ?
 “A forest composed mainly of trees established by planting and/or deliberate seedling, where planted
and/or seeded trees constitute more than 50% of the mature growing stock” (FAO, 2012)
 What is a “Large-scale forest plantation” ?
 In this study we will qualify as "large-scale forest plantation" plantations of at least 50 ha in one piece or
close enough in space to constitute a significant afforestation.
 Sources of information ?
 All this work is based on the existing literature (Articles, reports, conferences proceedings, books,
FAOSTATS database)
3

I - General context of forest plantations worldwide
4
I.1 - Trends in tropical natural forest area and tree plantations worldwide
Evolution of tree plantation areas by climate region
between 1990 and 2015
(Payn et al., 2015)
Trends in tropical natural forest area (in millions of
hectares) over the period 1990-2015 in FAO FRA reports
(Keenan et al., 2015)

5
I.2 - Evolution of tree plantations areas worldwide
Evolution of the world's forest plantation areas between 1990 and 2015
(FAO, 2015)

6
I.3 - Evolution trends in tree plantations areas in tropical and subtropical regions
Evolution of tree plantation areas (in millions of hectares)
between 1990 and 2015 for the 20 countries with the largest
planted forest areas in the world
(Payn et al., 2015)
Country
Planting area in
2015 (in Mha)
1990-
2000
2000-
2005
2005-
2010
2010-
2015
Change from peak
(in %)
Annual change (in %)
China 78,9 2,6 4,3 1,7 1,6 -2,7
India 12 2,3 5,8 3,3 1,6 -4,2
Brazil 7,7 0,4 1,7 4,4 2,1 -2,3
Sudan 6,1 0,4 0,8 0,3 0,6 -0,2
Indonesia 4,9 7 0,6 0,6 -6,4
Thailand 3,9 1,5 2,1 3 0 -3
Vietnam 3,6 7,8 5,7 7,1 -0,9 -8,7
Turkey 3,3 2,7 2,3 5,3 3,6 -1,7
Chile 3 1,3 1,3 2,9 5 0
Australia 2 1,4 6,7 3,2 1,2 -5,7
TOTAL 125,4
Evolution of the variation rate of planted forest area in the 10 countries
with the largest areas planted in tropical and subtropical regions (In red
the maximum values)
(According to Payn et al., 2015)

7
I.4 – Production from forest plantations worldwide
Proportions (in %) of the global forest area covered by
planted and natural forests and roundwood production
from these two types of forests
(FAO, 2017)
Roundwood production from planted forests (in millions of m3) of the
world's top 20 producing countries in 2012
(Payn et al., 2015)

8
I.5 – Production from forest plantations in tropical and subtropical areas
Roundwood production from tree plantations between 2000 and 2012 for 10 countries
(in m3)
(Adapted from Jürgensen et al., 2014)
0
20000000
40000000
60000000
80000000
100000000
120000000
140000000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Roundwood
production
(in
m3)
Years
Brazil
China
Chili
New-Zeland
Australia
South Africa
Thailand
Indonesia
Argentina
Uruguay
According to Jürgensen et al. (2014), in 2012,
the production of roundwood from tree
plantations is 565 million m3 worldwide
while the production in tropical and
subtropical countries is estimated at about
325 million m3.

9
I.5.1 – Woodfuel from forest plantations in tropical and subtropical areas
Proportion of harvested roundwood volumes for energy
use worldwide in 2011
(FAO, 2015)
 Most of woodfuel is collected in Africa (61 % in 2014)
 Economic contexts and policies encourage artisanal
exploitation in natural forest, particularly during
agricultural clearing, and on a small scale natural
forests (FAOSTATS in : Doggart & Meshack, 2017)
 Tree plantations accounted for 15 to 20 % of the volumes of
roundwood used for wood fuel production (Mead, 2005)
 The share of large-scale plantation is low in this
production (Mead, 2005)
 Tree plantations of Asia and South-America are the
most concerned by woodfuel production (Mugo &
Ong, 2006 ; FAO, 2010)

10
I.5.2 – Pulp from forest plantations in tropical and subtropical areas
 Pulp production is the first market for tree plantations of
tropical and subtropical areas
 75 % of the wood from tropical and subtropical tree
plantations is destined for the paper industry
(Jurgensen et al., 2014)
 Most of the production comes from fast-growing
species (pines, eucalyptus and acacias) tree
plantations (notably in New Zealand, Chile and
Brazil) (Cossalter & Pye-Smith, 2003; Dillen et al.,
2016)
 Historically, most of the production came from European
and North American plantations
 Production in tropical and subtropical areas has
grown strongly since the 1990s, particularly in South
America (+40 % between 1997 and 2007) and Asia
(+76 % between 1997 and 2007) (Honnold, 2009)
Roundwood volumes (in millions of m3) from fast-growing
tree plantations for pulp production in 1994, 2010 and
2020 (projections)
(Dillen et al., 2016)

11
I.5.3 – Timber production from forest plantations in tropical and subtropical areas
 Production of timber from tree plantations in tropical and subtropical
areas was estimated as represented 15-20 % of all roundwood extracted
annually or about 50-65 millions m3 (Mead, 2005; Jürgensen et al., 2014;
GIZ, 2015; Payn et al., 2015; Dillen et al., 2016)
 Timber production from tree plantations has been increased since 1990
and is separated in 2 types (Varmola & Carle, 2002; Kollert & Cherubini,
2012) :
 “Low" quality products such as plywood and reconstituted panels
(from eucalyptus, pine or acacia)
 Precious wood (in many cases teak, covering 15 millions hectares
in 2010 (Kollert & Cherubini, 2012)
Teck plantation (7 years, in association
with coffee plants) in India
Photo : D. Depommier

12
I.5.4 – Plantations intended for environmental protection
 Historically, a number of those plantations have been
installed to protect soils from erosion, more particularly
in Asia (Payn et al., 2015)
 In the more recent past, protection plantations
have been set up for carbon storage (notably as
part of the REDD+ process) and biodiversity
protection and preservation (Louppe, 2011; Silva et
al., 2018)
 In this study, by crossing sources, we estimated that
plantations intended for environmental protection covered
around 25 and 30 millions hectares worldwide
 More than 80 % of these plantations for protection
are located in Asia (Del Lungo et al., 2006 ; Payn et
al., 2015)
All around the world, as on the hills of North-Est of Haiti,
Acacia auriculiformis is used to protect soils from erosion,
Photo : A. Peroches

II – Typology of large-scale tree plantations in tropical
13
II.1 – Identification of discriminating factors between major types of large-scale tree plantations
Discriminating factors Categories
1 - Ownership of
plantation
Public plantations
Private Company’s plantations
Private plantations owned by
smallholders
2 - Origin of planted
species
Exotic
Native
3 - Number of species
planted
Mono-specific
Multi-specific
4 - Production objective
of the plantation
Woodfuel
Pulp
Timber
Protection
Proportion of forests planted with exotic species, based
on FAO regional breakdown
(Payn et al., 2015)

14
II.2 – Construction of the typology of large-scale tree plantations based on discriminating factors

15
Represented less than
0,1 % of of all industrial
plantation areas
worldwide
(Nichols et al., 2006)
Represented less than
0,1 % of of all industrial
plantation areas
worldwide
(Nichols et al., 2006)

16

17
II.3 – Main characteristics of the identified plantation types
TYPE 1 :
Public plantations, with a monospecific stand of exotic species. These plantations have a protection objective.
Areas concerned
≈ 5 million hectares
Main geographical areas
concerned
Asia
(Mainly in China and India)
Africa
(Mainly in Tunisia)
Main species planted
Acacia, Eucalyptus, pine, poplar,
teak
Previous land use
Degraded areas and areas
threatened by desertification
Average yield
Approx. 5 m3/ha/year
Surface changes over the last 30 years
Strong growth in the late 1990s and 2000s, particularly
through Chinese government programs. Strong growth
in Tunisia between 1990 and 2015. Still growing in Asia
and Tunisia.
References
Chokkalingam et al., 2006; Del Lungo et al., 2006;
Dhahri & Ben Jamâa, 2008; Jacovelli, 2014; Duponnois
et al., 2013; Liu et al., 2014; FAO, 2015; Wolosin, 2017

18
TYPE 2 :
Public plantations, with a monospecific stand of exotic species. These plantations have a production objective
Areas concerned
6 to 9 million hectares
concerned
Asia (mainly in China and India),
Africa (Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana,
Morocco, Ethiopia, Madagascar,
etc.) and Oceania (Australia and
New Zealand)
Acacia, Eucalyptus, pine, poplar,
teak
Previous land use
Degraded areas or agricultural
lands
Average yield
10 to 40 m3/ha/year
Strong growth, particularly in Asia until the 2000s. Still
growing over the last two decades, but to a lesser
extent, the states generally in favour of the private
sector for this type of plantation.
References
Barr & Cossalter, 2004; Del Lungo et al., 2006; Kollert &
Cherubini, 2012; Ferguson, 2014; Liu et al., 2014;
Rhodes & Stephen, 2014; Wolosin, 2017; Dubiez et al.,
2018

19
TYPE 3 :
Public plantations, with a monospecific or plurispecific stand of indigenous species. These plantations have a production objective (mainly
timber, wood fuel or multi-uses).
Areas concerned
≈ 20 millions hectares
concerned
Asia
Africa
(Mainly in Sudan, over a few tens
of thousands of hectares in Gabon
or Côte d'Ivoire)
Chinese fir trees, Poplars, Acacias
from Africa, Teak
Previous land use
Agricultural land, savannah areas
and degraded forest areas
Average yield
Varies according to the species.
Generally, relatively low (< 5
m3/ha/year)
Strong growth, particularly in China since 1990.
Weak dynamics in Sudan, with most plantations being
old.
References
Del Lungo et al., 2006; Gafaar, 2011; Marien et al.,
2013; Jacovelli, 2014; Wolosin, 2017; Chevalier, 2018

20
TYPE 4 :
Public plantations, with a monospecific or plurispecific stand of indigenous species. These plantations have a protection objective.
Areas concerned
10 to 15 millions hectares
concerned
Asia
Chinese fir trees, Poplars
Previous land use
Degraded forest and/or agricultural
areas
Average yield
Generally, relatively low (< 5
m3/ha/year)
Strong increase, particularly in China, over the last 30
years based on government programs.
References
Del Lungo et al., 2006; Liu et al., 2014; Wolosin, 2017

21
TYPE 5 :
Plantations of industrial companies, whose forest stand is monospecific and composed of exotic species. These plantations have a production
objective (timber, pulp and paper, energy wood). In this case, the land may belong to the producing company or it may belong to the state but
bequeathed in the form of a concession.
Areas concerned
25 to 35 millions hectares
concerned
Asia
(Indonesia, Thailand, India)
South America
(Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Uruguay)
Oceania
(Australia, New Zealand)
Africa
(Mainly in South Africa and Congo)
Acacia, Eucalyptus, pine, teak
Previous land use
Mainly degraded lands and grassy
savannah areas. 6 to 7% of the
plantation areas of all types are the
result of deforestation. This is
particularly true in Chile and
Indonesia.
Average yield
15 to 60 m3/ha/year
Strong growth, particularly over the last 15 years. It is
the dominant model in tropical and subtropical areas.
References
Zobel et al. 1987; Cossalter & Pye-Smith, 2003; Mugo &
Ong, 2006; FAO, 2010 ; Thu et al. 2010; Tassin, 2011;
Kollert & Cherubini, 2012; Elias & Boucher, 2014;
Martin, 2014; Nambiar & Hardwood, 2014; Szulecka et
al., 2014; Andersson, et al. 2015; Payn et al. 2015;
WWF, 2015; Cateau et al. 2018

22
TYPE 6 :
Plantations of industrial companies with a mono/plurispecific stand of indigenous species. These plantations have a specific timber
production objective. In this case, the land may belong to the producing company or it may belong to the state but bequeathed in the form of a
concession.
Areas concerned
< 5 millions hectares
concerned
Asia
Africa
Varies according to geographical
areas. Largely dominated by teak
(in native countries) in Asia.
Previous land use
Generally in degraded forest areas
Average yield
Generally relatively low outside
teak (< 5 m3/ha/year) and
between 10 and 20 m3/ha/year for
teak
Increase in teak in Asia (particularly in India), stable due
to the low economic interest of this type of plantation
for a majority of other species.
References
Marien & Mallet, 2004; Elias & Boucher, 2014; Karsenty,
2018

23
TYPE 7 :
Private plantations of small aggregate owners, with a monospecific stand of exotic species. These plantations have a production objective
(timber, wood fuel, multi-use)
Areas concerned
< 5 millions hectares
concerned
Asia
Africa
Eucalyptus, pine and acacia
Previous land use
Degraded forests, wooded
savannahs
Average yield
10 to 20 m3/ha/year
Low development on a global scale. Development
strongly correlated with initial public, private or NGO
investment.
References
Enters et al., 2004; Del Lungo et al., 2006; Bisiaux et al.,
2009; Verhaegen et al., 2014; Trial et al., 2017; Dubiez
et al., 2018

III – Spatial and temporal distribution of différents
plantation types and analyses of regional and local
dynamics
24
III.1 – South America
Evolution of industrial forest plantation areas in Chile between 1950
and 2010 in hectares
(Andersson et al., 2015)
 South America has just over 15 million hectares of
planted forests (EFIATLANTIC et al., 2013)
 88% of which are exotic species, the majority
of which are eucalyptus (70%) and pine (25%)
(ITTO, 2009; Payn et al., 2015).
 In this region, the strong growth of tree plantations
(+3.2% per year over the decade 2000-10) is driven
by the private sector, supported by favourable state
land and tax policies (ITTO, 2009; EFIATLANTIC et al.,
2013)
 This area is the most representative of the
current development of type 5 plantations
according to the typology established in this
study.

dynamics
25
III.2 – East and South-East Asia
 Asia is the leading continent in terms of forest plantation area,
with nearly 123 million hectares (EFIATLANTIC et al., 2013)
 Historically, the development of tree plantations has been
based on public projects and funds, one of the main
objectives being the protection of soil and water resources
(Wolosin, 2017). Today 30 % of tree plantations have this
purpose
 A significant proportion of plantations are therefore public
and meet the types 1, 2, 3 and 4 identified and defined in
this study (Enters et al., 2004; Del Lungo et al., 2006;
Wolosin, 2017)
 As in most tropical and subtropical regions, since the late 1990s
and early 2000s, there has been a growing interest and strong
development of industrial business plantations (Type 5),
particularly in South-East Asian countries such as Indonesia or
Thailand (Michon, 2003; Enters et al., 2004; FAO, 2007; Szulecka et
al., 2014; Wolosin, 2017)
Evolution of areas (black curve, in thousands of
hectares) and standing timber stocks (blue curve, in
million m3) in China between 1973 and 2013
(Liu et al., 2014)

dynamics
26
III.3 – Oceania
 Oceania has 4.1 million hectares of planted
forests.
 92 % of these plantations are in Australia
and New Zealand
 79% of which are planted with exotic
species (mainly pine and eucalyptus)
(Enters et al., 2004; Carle & Holmgren,
2008; EFIATLANTIC et al., 2013; Payn et
al., 2015)
 Private plantations gradually developed from
the 1960s onwards
 The growth increased in the 1990s,
encouraged by a proactive public policy,
until they surpassed the weight of the
public sector in the early 2000s (Enters et
al., 2004; Rhodes & Stephens, 2014).
Evolution of forest plantation areas (in ha) by ownership type in Australia
(Enters et al., 2004)

dynamics
27
III.4 – Africa
 Africa has 16.3 million hectares of planted forests (FAO, 2015)
 Two countries, Sudan and South Africa, with 6.1 and
1.75 million hectares planted respectively, represent the
main continent's planted forests (Jacovelli, 2014; FAO,
2015; Cateau et al., 2018).
 Apart from the specific case of South Africa, most
African plantations are public (EFIATLANTIC et al., 2013)
 Plantation growth on the African continent is one of the
lowest in the world (Payn et al., 2015)
 Large planting campaigns whose results did not meet
expectations took place in the 1970s and 1980s and
relatively few since the disengagement of the States in
the 1990s (Marien & Mallet, 2004; Louppe, 2011; Hamel
& Dameron, 2011; Chevalier, 2018).
View of the Mampu plantation (left part of the trail),
located on the savannahs (right part of the trail) of the
Batéké Plateau (DRC) as part of a public project of the
late 80s
Photo : A. Peroches

IV – Outlook of the evolution of tree plantations in
28
IV.1 – Evolution of demand
Projection of the demand trend for
roundwood (in millions of m3) worldwide
(INDUFOR, 2012)
Evolution of global demand for roundwood (GDP) and world population between 1960
and 2016
(FAO, 2017)

29
IV.2 – Evolution of production
Forecasts of global trends demand for roundwood (blue curve,
in billions of m3) and production from tree plantations (red
curve, in billions of m3) between 2012 and 2050
(Barua et al., 2014 from INDUFOR, 2012)
Evolution of forest plantation areas (in millions of hectares) by continent
by 2050
(INDUFOR, 2012)

30
IV.2 – A dominant model with sustainability challenges
 Type 5 (Private company’s plantations,
monospecific, exotic species) criticized for social
and environmental impacts even if, economically, it
is the most competitive type of large-scale
plantation (Cossalter & Pye-Smith, 2003 ; Pirard et
al., 2016 ; Malkamäki et al., 2018)
 Certification labels are criticized too by some NGO’s
like WWF
 The dominant type is probably not the only
solution to reduce pressure on natural forests.
According to different contexts, all types can be part
of solution
Type 5 Type 4
Type 3
Type 7 Type 6
Type 2 Type 1
Position of large-scale forest plantation types in the land
use classification by Brockerhoff et al .(2008)

31
IV.3 – Which model in the future ?
 Today, it seems essential to promote models with
varying levels of intensity depending on: the level of
forest ecosystem degradation, the needs of local
populations, the availability of financial and
technical resources and access to land.
 For example, concerning forest restauration,
Chazdon (2008) has outlined the strategies
that could be implemented according to these
different parameters in the form of a "stairs
diagram".
 Several authors recommend to develop restoration
strategies and different types of plantations under
local development programmes as part of
multifunctional forest landscape management
policies which involve local populations (Brockerhoff
et al., 2008; Barua et al., 2014; Payn et al., 2014;
Payn et al., 2015; WWF, 2015)
The restoration forest strairs diagram. Depending on the level of
degradation of an initially forested ecosystem, various management
approaches can restore at least partially the levels of biodiversity
and the ecosystem services, with an adequate investment of time
(years) and money (capital, infrastructure and labour).
(Chazdon, 2008)

V – Conclusion & recommandations
32
 Tree plantations have been growing worldwide since 1990, although their growth has slowed down over the past
decade
 In tropical and subtropical areas, South America and East & South-East Asia are the most dynamic regions in
terms of areas planted over the last three decades
 Out of the seven types of large-scale plantations identified in tropical and subtropical areas, one type largely
dominates the sector : industrial companies’ plantations, monospecific, planted with exotic species
 This type has been the historical model in Oceania and is currently growing rapidly in South America and
Southeast Asia.
 China, the leading country in terms of forest plantation area, has shifted to public plantations, often with
environmental protection objectives before having wood production objectives. However, Chinese
plantations remain at 85% monospecific.
 The majority of new plantations in the world adopt the dominant model, despite facing many criticisms
especially for its environmental and social impacts
 The development of forest plantation certification, particularly FSC, in the 1990s have failed to silence
criticism of this planting model

33
 With the growing environmental challenges resulting from ongoing climate change and the growing demand for
wood products, it seems clear that tree plantations, particularly large-scale in tropical and subtropical areas,
where productivity rates are the highest in the world, and far higher than those of natural forests, will have a role
to play in the years to come.
 The promotion of a diversity of plantations within multifunctional landscapes that are managed and consistent
with each other will require :
 The development of innovative financing methods (public and private),
 Involving local actors and in particular local populations,
 The development by research institutions of set of practices relatively easy to implement other than those
based on exotic species with rapid growth in monoculture.

34
Stakeholders Recommendations for action
Private managers
Progress in certification processes (homogenization and optimization)
Clarify "Zero Deforestation" commitments and commit sustainably to its principles
Develop "win-win" systems such as "Nucleus Estate and Smallholders scheme" in operating areas to
enable better local development and a reduction in land conflicts with neighboring stakeholders
Public authorities
Promote coherent land use plan policies that are conducive to the development of different types of
complementary plantations
Ensure that the establishment of private companies, particularly type 5 companies, does not generate
negative social impacts but results in coherent local development in socio-economic and environmental
terms
Promote public research and development policies that promote the development of different types of
complementary tree plantations
Directly promote and finance alternative plantation projects (multi-specific with local species, for
protection purposes, in order to ensure a greater diversity of existing plantation types on a large scale
Promote the recycling of products from wood resources to reduce pressure on forest stands
Research institutions
Conduct alternative research on plantations (other than those consisting solely of exotic monoculture
species) in order to promote the commercial development of these alternative types of plantations
Continue to measure the socio-economic and environmental impacts of the different types of existing tree
plantations
Non-Environmental Organization
Maintain efforts to analyze the impacts of tree plantations in order to improve their development and
management
Contribute to the improvement of certification standards and their adoption
Support, where possible, the development of plantations within a sustainable development framework

Thanks for your attention!
35
Adrien PEROCHES
Agrarian Systems Consulting
adrien@agrarian-systems.org

Temporal and spatial analysis of the growth dynamics of large-scale tree plantations in tropical and subtropical areas

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