Political polling season is kicking into high gear – and pollsters want to ensure they are getting the most accurate data possible. While much of traditional polling is done on the phone, it has proven that it is not as accurate as it once was. What can be done?
Check out the deck from our webinar, The New Polling Mix: Increasing Accuracy With Online Surveys, to learn how incorporating online surveys into your polling mix can increase your overall accuracy.
2. VP, Global Client Services
7+ years in Market Research
Staffer on multiple political
campaigns, presidential and
congressional
Works with numerous political polling
companies to assist in the research
Adam Dietrich
4. 2014 – Republican landslide in the midterm elections
2014 – British Conservative party’s easy win
2015 – Netanyahu’s popularity leading to a win
2016 - Brexit
2016 – US presidential election
(Michigan, Florida, Wisconsin)
Recent High Profile Polling Misses
5. Probability Sampling - a sampling
technique, in which the subjects of the
population get an equal opportunity to be
selected as a representative sample
Question Consistency
Length of Interview
Polling Today
6. Phone Polling Methodologies
Calls to landlines and mobile phones –
what is the right mix?
Techniques include:
Random-Digit Dialing (RDD)
Registration-Based
Likely Voter
7. Online Polling Methodologies
Panel
Double Opt-in
Email Invitations
River
Website
Banner Ads
Longitudinal
Multiple responses from the same sample pool
Models - every poll creates a quota based on
expectations of the voting population in a given district or
state
8. Different Ways People Ask Questions
“If the election were today…”
Past Participation (i.e. Voters from 2014 and 2016
elections)
Likely Voter vs. Registered Voter
9. US Population Changes In The Last Decade
Almost everyone has a mobile phone, actually a
smartphone
(81%, Comscore 2016)
Landline penetration is steadily declining
(43%, Statista 2018)
Nearly everyone in the US uses or has access to the
internet
(94%, Pew Internet Research 2017)
10. The old adage that midterm elections are made up
of the elderly is still true – but they’re online now
Many online panels have adjusted their recruitment,
incentives and community characteristics to appeal
to the 65+ crowd
Profiling – party affiliation, issue voters, voting history
and more
Changes Since The 2016 Presidential Election
14. The EMI Difference
Panel specialties: Consumer, B2B and Healthcare
Global network of 150+ panel partners
20 years of sample and survey expertise
24/7 program coverage
Thinking beyond the algorithm
15. Polling & Public Opinion
Sample of Voter Criteria:
Verified Voter Registration
National, State, Congressional, Municipal
levels
Party Affiliation (Democrat, Republican,
Independent)
Historical Election Turnout (2008, 2012, 2016)
General and Primary Election Voting History
Geographic Targeting:
US National
State
Congressional Districts
Additional Geo-Specific Targeting
Behavioral Data Points
Environmentalists
Pro Life/Pro Choice
2A Supporters/Gun Control
Advocates
Organized Labor Supporters
Political Contributors
Many more
16. Sample Blending With IntelliBlend®
Blend sample from traditional and non-traditional
sources
Blended in an intentional and controlled method
Custom sample plan that best fits your project
Ability to replace a supplier if necessary with
minimal impact to project results
Exponentially increased feasibility – no longer in top-
up situations
Wave-to-wave sample consistency
17. Proprietary, cloud-based, sample
management platform
Launch, field and close studies quicker and
more accurately than other sample
providers
Made up of several modules
SWIFT
18. Capabilities include:
Advanced quota management – manage overall
study or by partner
Click balancing based on gender, age, income and
region
Single set of redirects
Compatible with all programming platforms
Ability to pass unlimited number of variables
Sample Module
19. Capabilities:
Industry-leading digital fingerprinting
In-study survey alerts for low or problematic LOI,
incidence, completes, OQs, activity, etc.
Geo-IP blocking
Advanced bot and fraud detection
Next-Gen CAPTCHA
Quality Module
21. W W W . E M I - R S . C O M / S A L E S @ E M I - R S . C O M
A D A M D I E T R I C H : A D A M . D I E T R I C H @ E M I – R S . C O M
Editor's Notes
Welcome everyone and thank you for joining our webinar, The New Polling Mix: Increasing Accuracy With Online Surveys. My name is Brian Peterson and I am the digital marketing director at EMI and I will be the moderator for today’s webinar.
Today’s presenter will be EMI’s VP of Global Client Services, Adam Dietrich. He has been in market research for over 7 years, and has over 14 years experience with political campaigns and polling. He has worked on many congressional, statewide, and presidential campaigns across both parties.
Just a few housekeeping items before we get started.
Should be no more than 30 minutes, I want to be mindful of everyone’s time
Everybody is currently muted. I am going to keep it that way for the webinar.
If you have any questions, please enter them into the chat box – we will try and answer all of them at the end of the webinar.
We are recording the webinar today, and a copy of the recording will be sent out to you tomorrow.
With that, I am going to turn it over to Adam Dietrich
Per AAPOR (https://www.aapor.org/Education-Resources/Election-Polling-Resources/Sampling-Methods-for-Political-Polling.aspx)
Probability Sample Techniques
Random Digit Dialing
Samples of telephone area codes and exchanges are selected, and then random digits are added to the end to create 10-digit phone numbers. The first step ensures phone numbers are distributed properly by geography. The second step, adding the random numbers, makes sure that even unlisted numbers are included. This has traditionally been the standard practiced by almost all public pollsters. The major advantage of RDD is the coverage of the population: Everyone with a telephone is eligible to be sampled. The major disadvantage is that it is expensive, since many of the landline telephone numbers generated are non-working numbers and cellphone numbers need to be manually dialed by interviewers.
Registration-Based Sampling
This begins with a sample of individuals drawn from lists of registered voters, to which phone numbers are then matched (or sometimes available from the voter list). This is less costly and more efficient, as almost all calls result in reaching a working phone number, which is not true of an RDD sample. One disadvantage of an RBS sample is that voter lists often do not include unlisted telephone numbers or full coverage of cellphone numbers; additionally they may not include voters who have just moved or registered to vote.
Likely Voter
Point 1
Mobile phone penetration is 95%
81% of own a smartphone
Point 2
Roughly 43% of US households still have a landline
Heavily skewed to older demographics to still have a landline
Millenials and other ethnic groups are more likely to go cell phone only
Point 3
Over 90% of americans use the internet
65+ people are the age group compared to all others to not use the internet, but usage is still over 65%
This raises questions to how accurate traditional political polling methods can be if their sample source skews significantly older and Caucasian from the beginning?
Sources:
Mobile phone penetration - http://www.pewinternet.org/fact-sheet/mobile/
Smartphone penetration - https://www.comscore.com/Insights/Blog/US-Smartphone-Penetration-Surpassed-80-Percent-in-2016
Landline usage - https://www.statista.com/chart/2072/landline-phones-in-the-united-states/
Internet: http://www.pewinternet.org/fact-sheet/internet-broadband/
In the past money was pumped into television and radio ads, even some display signage like billboards. With Obama and Trump, we saw a shift of some of the budge that would go to these traditional methods and have it spent on online and social media. Since Obama, we have seen a big shift in online and social media spending by political campaigns.
If campaigns are changing their marketing methods, why aren’t pollster changing theirs?
Expand on each bullet
Controlled Method:
* Provides most representative and accurate demographic, behavioral and attitudinal data
At the core of the SWIFT platform is the sample module. In this module, we can quickly link your survey to any partner in our extensive global partner network, so get the respondents you need.
The driving force behind our ability to provide you the highest quality sample is our quality module, that utilizes the latest industry quality methods and some new and unique tools. This allows us to detect and eliminate more fraud, bots and duplications than other sample providers.
Our reporting module provides you a CSV export of your respondent data, so you can easily import it into your desired platform for further analysis.
I want to go ahead and open it up to questions. Again as a reminder, if you have any questions, please enter them into the chat box.