3. Dual crises set against the backdrop of a recession.
3
Sources: NBC News, 6/21/2020 (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u-s-coronavirus-death-toll-surpasses-120-000-china-south-n1231663); Politico, n =1,981, 5/29-6/1/2020
(https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000172-76e4-d9bc-a1f7-7eefb03b0000); The Economist/YouGov, n = 1,500, 6/7-9/2020 (https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/ngcg634q9k/econTabReport.pdf); The
Economist/YouGov, n = 1,500, 3/8-10/2020 (https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/1ghnpqhhpu/econToplines.pdf ); The Hill, 6/11/2020 (https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/502220-harvard-
health-expert-anticipates-100000-more-us); CNN, 6/17/2020 (https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/health/us-coronavirus-tuesday/index.html); NYT, 6/18/2020
(https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html)
Covid-19 deaths top 120k Many are still out of workPolice brutality and protests
- Nearly half of all states are
showing upward trends in
new cases.
- Heading into summer, some
governors are committed to
reopening, while others warn
they may need to renew
restrictions.
- Experts predict deaths will hit
200k by October.
- Nearly 1 in 6 are unemployed
even with states beginning to
reopen.
- 64% of Americans predict it
will take at least a year for the
U.S. economy to fully recover.
- The Congressional Budget
Office projects the economy
won’t fully recover until 2030.
- Protests have continued for
over three weeks across the
nation, renewing calls for
racial justice and policing
reform.
- Both Democrats and
Republicans have criticized
the President’s actions.
The number of Americans who believe the country is off on the
wrong track is up 13 points from 51% in March (now 64%).
4. While approval of Pres. Trump held steady during the Coronavirus pandemic, police
brutality and Black Lives Matter protests drove a sharp downturn.
29-Jan-1729-M
ar-1729-M
ay-1729-Jul-1729-Sep-1729-N
ov-1729-Jan-1829-M
ar-1829-M
ay-1829-Jul-1829-Sep-1829-N
ov-1829-Jan-1929-M
ar-1929-M
ay-1929-Jul-1929-Sep-1929-N
ov-1929-Jan-2029-M
ar-2029-M
ay-20
January 2017 June 2020
47% disapprove
45% approve
57% disapprove
39% approve
Source: Gallup, 1/29/2017-6/3/2020, n=1500 Adults Daily (https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx)
Peak disapproval: 60%
after Kavanaugh/during
the 2018 midterms
Peak approval: 49%
throughout much of the
coronavirus
4-Jun-20
Approval by party
Democrats 5%
Independents 39%
Republicans 85%
Pres. Trump’s approval has dropped at previous points throughout his term, and each time he
has recovered and narrowed the gap. It remains to be seen if he will do the same this time.
4
5. The Black Lives Matter movement has gained significant support and momentum.
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Feb-18
Apr-18
Jun-18
Aug-18
Oct-18
Dec-18
Feb-19
Apr-19
Jun-19
Aug-19
Oct-19
Dec-19
Feb-20
Apr-20
Jun-20
June 2017
41% oppose
38% support
Source: Washington Post, n= 1,006 adults, 6/2-7/20 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/context/june-2-7-2020-washington-post-schar-poll/6b811cdf-8f99-4e28-b8f1-c76df335c16a/?itid=lk_inline_manual_9) ;
Monmouth, n=807 adults, 5/28-6/1/20 (https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_060220.pdf/); Reuters, n=1,113 adults, 6/9-10/20 (https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-
ELECTION/qmypmorxgpr/Topline%20Reuters%20George%20Floyd%20Protests%20%20Police%20Reform%2006%2010%202020.pdf ); Civiqs,, n=100k adults over 3 years
(https://civiqs.com/results/black_lives_matter?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true)
June 2020
29% oppose
52% support
The BLM movement has seen
significant growth in support in a
very short period.
3 in 4 Americans support protests, as the
country begins to shift views on racial
discrimination and police violence.
Support / opposition: Black Lives Matter movement76%now consider
racism and discrimination
a big problem.
69% now say that
police killings are are a
sign of broader problems.
+26 pts.
from 2015
+26 pts.
from 2014
A majority of Americans – both Republican
and Democrat – now support sweeping law
enforcement reforms.
5
6. In the midst of unrest, Coronavirus continues to be a priority on Americans’ minds.
6
Sources: Axios/Ipsos, n = 1,022, 6/12-15/2020 (https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2020-06/topline-axios-poll-w13.pdf); Gallup, n=1,000 adults, 6/1-7/2020
(https://news.gallup.com/poll/1675/most-important-problem.aspx)
However, belief that “the worst is
yet to come” from the virus is
down from April.
47%
46%
Worst is behind us
Worst is yet to come Down from
80% in April
19%
19%
20%
21%
Race relations / racism
Economic problems
Coronavirus
The government / leadership
Coronavirus is tied with leadership, the
economy, and race relations as the most
important problem facing the country.
7. There is a sharp political divide between Republicans and Democrats on reopening.
7
Sources: Washington Post, 5/26/2020 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-calls-mask-wearing-politically-correct-biden-calls-him-a-fool/2020/05/26/a58025e6-9f9c-11ea-81bb-
c2f70f01034b_story.html); The Economist/YouGov, n = 1,500, 6/14-16/2020 (https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/vgqowgynze/econTabReport.pdf); FactCheck, 6/16/2020 (https://www.factcheck.org/2020/06/ahead-of-
trump-rally-republicans-spin-covid-19-metrics/); Kaiser, n = 1,189, 5/13-18/2020 (http://files.kff.org/attachment/Topline-KFF-Health-Tracking-Poll-May-2020.pdf)
4%
6%
8%
31%
33%
34%
6%
11%
26%
8%
It is safe right
now
In about two
weeks
In a month or
so
In several
months
In about a year
or longer
Democrats
Republicans
When will it be safe to reopen business as
normal?
As masks have become a political
symbol, the White House has
suggested that the recent uptick in
COVID-19 cases in some states is
driven by increases in testing.
(Testing accounts for some of the rise
but doesn’t explain all of it.)
Democrats are almost twice as
likely as Republicans (70% to
37%) to say they wear a mask
every time they leave their house.
8. But both Democrats and Republicans show support for governors’ handling of the crisis.
8
Three of the highest rated governors are
moderate Republicans who have clashed
with President Trump: Gov. Larry Hogan
(MD), Gov. Phil Scott (VT), Gov. Charlie
Baker (MA).
Democratic governor average = 69%
Republican governor average = 67%
The lowest rated governor:
Gov. Brian Kemp (GA) at 43%
75%
76%
78%
80%
80%
82%
82%
82%
82%
85%
Montana Gov. Steve Bullock (D)
Indiana Gov. Eric Holcomb (R)
Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont (D)
North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum (R)
Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R)
Vermont Gov. Phil Scott (R)
Rhode Island Gov. Gina Raimondo (D)
Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker (R)
New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R)
Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R)
Approval of Governor’s handling of
Coronavirus by residents
(top 10)
Sources: The Washington Post, n = 123,335, 4/30-5/13/2020 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/05/19/49-50-governors-have-better-coronavirus-numbers-than-trump/)
9. Americans are nervous about heading to the polls in November.
Two-thirds support mail-in voting.
9
52% of voters are are
more likely to cast their
vote by mail rather than in
person this November if
given the opportunity.
Sources: Marist, n = 1,007, 5/12-17/2020 (http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/UPDATED_NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_202005191427.pdf#page=3);
Gallup, 4/14-28/2020 (https://news.gallup.com/poll/310586/americans-favor-voting-mail-option-november.aspx)
64%
40%
68%
83%
Total Republican Independent Democrat
Support for mail-in voting is high,
but split along party lines.
10. Both parties are gearing up for a mail-in voting fight and are pursuing legal challenges.
10
Sources: National Vote at Home Institute, 3/2020 (https://www.voteathome.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/VAHScale_StrategyPlan.pdf); The Brennen Center, 4/18/2020 (https://www.brennancenter.org/our-
work/research-reports/estimated-costs-covid-19-election-resiliency-measures); FiveThirtyEight, 4/27/2020 (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/few-states-are-prepared-to-switch-to-voting-by-mail-that-could-make-for-
a-messy-election/); The Washington Post, 5/20/2020 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/05/20/what-are-arguments-against-voting-by-mail/); The New York Times, 4/11/2020
(https://www.nytimes.com/article/mail-in-voting-explained.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage)
Real Barriers:
• There are logistical and planning challenges.
States will need to work through several
questions – including pre-paid return ballots,
application processes for mail-in voting, and
storage and tracking of ballots – as part of
expanding options for voters.
• States also face financial challenges to
expanding mail-in voting. One think tank
estimates that voting by mail will cost $1-2 billion
to implement.
Myths:
• Myth: The process benefits one political party
over the other. Reports examining mail-in elections
from 1996 to 2018 have shown that both turnout and
vote share remained even across parties over the
course of those elections.
• Myth: Voting by mail will increase voter fraud.
The five states that currently conduct all voting by
mail – Colorado, Hawaii, Oregon, Utah, and
Washington – report very little voter fraud, and all
voting fraud across the U.S. is very low.
Courts have previously ruled that while voting is a right,
voting early or by mail is only a privilege.
12. Biden holds leads nationally and in most key swing states.
Source: RealClearPolitics, 5/28-6/16/2020 (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html); Fox News, 5/30-6/2/2020, 801 WI voters
(https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2020/06/Fox_May-30-June-2-2020_Complete_Wisconsin_Topline_June-3-Release.pdf); CNBC, 5/29-31/2020, n = 1,186 likely FL voters, 579 likely PA voters
(https://www.changeresearch.com/post/states-of-play-battleground-wave-6); EPIC-MRA, 5/30-6/3/2020, n = 600 likely MI voters (https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/06/07/michigan-poll-biden-leading-trump-12-
points/3153501001/); PPP, 6/2-3/2020, n = 949 (https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/NCResultsJune2020.pdf); Fox News, 5/30-6/2/2020, n = 1000 AZ voters
(https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2020/06/35199d36-Fox_May-30-June-2-2020_Complete_Arizona_Topline_June-3-Release.pdf); Fox News, 5/30-6/2/2020, n = 803 OH voters
(https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2020/06/Fox_May-30-June-2-2020_Complete_Ohio_Topline_June-3-Release.pdf); Star Tribune, 5/18-20/2020, n = 800 MN voters (https://www.startribune.com/star-tribune-mpr-news-
kare-11-minnesota-poll-presidential-race/570571341/)
VP Joe
Biden
50%
12
Popular Vote Battleground Advantages
President
Trump
42%
Florida
Biden +3
Arizona
Biden +4
Michigan
Biden +12
Wisconsin
Biden +9
Pennsylvania
Trump +4
Ohio
Biden +2*
North Carolina
Biden +4
*denotes polling within the margin of error
Minnesota
Biden +5
Based on aggregated polling from
May 28 – June 16
Biden currently leads in 7 of 8 key
swing states Pres. Trump won in 2016.
13. 53%
56%
53%
45%45% 44% 45%
47%
2008 2012 2016 2020
Clinton
Trump
Obama
Obama
Romney
McCain
President Trump is losing support among traditional Republican strongholds.
13
Source: Fox News, n = 1,207 registered voters, 5/17-2020 (https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2020/05/7ab2e761-Fox_May-17-20-2020_Complete_National_Topline_May-21-Release.pdf);
The Economist/YouGov, n = 1,500 adult Americans, 5/23-26/2020 (https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/5fsvmrvvhh/econTabReport.pdf); New York Times exit polls
(https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/08/us/politics/election-exit-polls.html); CNN exit polls, 2008, 20102, 2016 (https://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#USP00p1;
https://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/race/president/; https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls); Marist, n = 1,062, 6/2-3/2020 (http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-
content/uploads/2020/06/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_2006041039.pdf )
Democrats will look to expand their voting base going into November –
shifts among these demographics will be key.
Suburban voters:
48%
50% 50%
36%
50%
48%
45%
52%
2008 2012 2016 2020
Clinton
Trump
Obama
Obama
Romney
McCain
D +2 R +2 R +5
Voters over 65:
R +8 R +12 R +8
Biden
Trump
D +16 D +2
Biden
Trump
current polling current polling
White women:
53%
56%
52%
44%
46%
42% 43%
51%
2008 2012 2016 2020
Clinton
Trump
Obama
Obama
Romney
McCain
R +14 R +9 D +7R +7
Biden
Trump
current polling
14. 186 28 34 86 78 126
Despite Biden’s recent surge in national polling, the electoral map still shows a tight
race to come.
14
K
Y
Electoral vote counter:
Democrat: 248 Republican: 204
Safe Democrat
Likely Democrat
Toss up
Likely Republican
Safe Republican
Source: Cook Political Report, 6/19/2020 (https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/new-2020-electoral-college-ratings)
Need 270 to win
Changes since March 2020:
• Michigan moved from toss
up to leans Democrat
• Ohio and Iowa moved
from likely Republican to
leans Republican
15. Democrats are more excited to vote, but the Biden campaign faces serious challenges.
15
Source: ABC News, 5/1/2020 (https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/house-democrats-ready-virtual-organizing-coronavirus-derails-ground/story?id=70415299); New York Times, 5/15/2020
(https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/15/us/politics/joe-biden-campaign-2020.html); Reuters, n – 66,000 (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-enthusiasm-exclusive/exclusive-democrats-furious-with-
trump-much-more-keen-to-vote-now-than-four-years-ago-reuters-ipsos-idUSKCN21X1AQ); Harvard CAPS-Harris, n = 1,854 registered voters, 5/13-14/2020 (https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-
content/uploads/2020/05/May20_HHP_RegisteredVoters_Crosstabs.pdf); Washington Post, 5/22/20 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/05/22/come-bidens-you-aint-black-comment-was-clearly-
joke/); AP News, 6/2/2020 (https://apnews.com/b4801d97be64450b0cc5a8b839d0679b)
But…
• Key Democratic voting blocs will be harder to reach. With
no door-to-door voter contact, Biden and Democrats look to
push the campaign online with virtual townhalls. Lower
income and minority groups do not have widespread access.
• Rallies and public appearances will be limited. The
structure of the convention uncertain. Throughout much of
the pandemic, Biden has not been seen in public, but he has
visited protest sites in the wake of police brutality
demonstrations and held smaller in-person events recently.
Pres. Trump, however, is holding a major rally in Tulsa, OK on
June 20 where attendees will be asked to take steps to
mitigate Coronavirus transmission.
62% 61%
70%
2012 2016 2020
Democrats’ Certainty of
Voting
16. Biden
Trump
In May, Biden outraised Pres. Trump for the first time – but Pres. Trump has more cash on
hand.
Source: New York Times, 6/20/2020 (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/20/us/biden-trump-fundraising.html)
Funds raised in May
$74 million
$80.8 million
Pres. Trump is on track
to raise more than $1
billion this summer.
16
17. Will Biden’s VP pick bring out the Democratic base, or keep them home?
17
Source: USA Today, 5/20/2020 (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/05/20/election-2020-why-some-democrats-say-joe-biden-needs-woman-color-vp/3115414001/); CNN, 5/21/2020
(https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/21/politics/biden-vp-kamala-harris-amy-klobuchar-elizabeth-warren/index.html); CNN, 5/23/2020 (https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/23/opinions/joe-biden-veep-stakes-shape-image-
mitchell/index.html); Politico, 5/23/2020 (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/23/black-activists-joe-biden-amy-klobuchar-vice-president-275326); CNN, 4/26/2020
(https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/26/politics/stacey-abrams-joe-biden-2020-election/index.html); Politico, 5/28/2020 (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/28/famed-democratic-pollster-pushing-biden-pick-
warren-for-vp-285659)
Biden has stated he will select a woman
for his running mate and hopes to have
the decision made by August 1.
Others being considered:
Harris and Rice could be more appealing to
minority voters.
Warren could bring left-leaning voters into the
fold for Biden.
Other potential VP options like Rice are viewed
as less experienced than Warren and Harris.
Sen. Kamala Harris
(CA, former 2020 candidate)
The short list:
Susan Rice
(former National Security
Advisor)
Sen. Elizabeth Warren
(MA, former 2020 candidate)
• Stacey Abrams
• Sen. Tammy Baldwin (WI)
• Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (MI)
• Rep. Val Demings (FL-10)
• Gov. Michele Lujan Grisham (NM)
• Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms
(Mayor of Atlanta)
19. There are 35 Senate seats in play: 23 held by Republicans and 12 held by Democrats.
19
ü Democrats are looking to
pick up toss-up seats in AZ, CO,
NC, ME and MT.
ü Republicans are looking to
regain the AL Senate seat that
currently leans Republican.
ü Retirements: Senators Lamar
Alexander (R-TN), Pat Roberts
(R-KS), Johnny Isakson (R-GA),
Mike Enzi (R-WY), and Tom
Udall (D-NM) are all retiring.
Democrats need to pick up 4
seats to retake the Senate.
Denotes a state Hillary Clinton won in 2016 where a Republican Senator is up for re-election in 2020
Denotes a state Pres. Trump won in 2016 where a Democratic Senator is up for re-election in 2020
K
Y
20. The most vulnerable Senate seats up in 2020 are currently held by Republicans.
20
Solid Dem Likely/Lean Dem Toss Up Likely/Lean Rep Solid Rep
DE-Coons MN-Smith AZ-McSally AL-Jones AR-Cotton SD-Rounds
IL-Durbin NM-Open CO-Gardner GA-Loeffler ID-Risch TN-Open
MA-Markey MI-Peters ME-Collins GA- Perdue LA-Cassidy WV-Moore Capito
NH-Shaheen NC-Tillis IA-Ernst MS-Hyde-Smith WY-Open
NJ-Booker MT-Daines* KS-Open NE-Sasse
OR-Merkley KY-McConnell* OK-Inhofe
RI-Reed SC-Graham*
VA-Warner TX-Cornyn
AK-Sullivan*
Source: Cook Political Report (https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings)
To take the majority in the Senate, Democrats will need to retain all current seats and pick up four toss-ups.
If Democrats and Republicans split the Senate, the Vice President will break the tie.
*denotes a race that has recently become more competitive
21. Key Senate races lean toward Democratic challengers.
Sources: Fox News, 5/30-6/2/2020, n = 1000 AZ voters (https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2020/06/35199d36-Fox_May-30-June-2-2020_Complete_Arizona_Topline_June-3-Release.pdf); 538
(https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-arizona-georgia-and-texas-really-in-play/; Public Policy Polling, n = 872 Maine residents, 3/2-3/2020 (https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/MaineResults.pdf); Keating Research,
n = 600 likely CO Voters, 5/1-3/2020 (https://ewscripps.brightspotcdn.com/00/84/bbf8579e40d3ab2839a2f96d81d9/kom-colorado-poll-may-2020-topline-results-all-questions-for-release.pdf); Meeting Street Insight, n = 500 registered NC voters,
5/9-13/2020 (https://cprnc.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/NC-Statewide-Survey-May-2020-Crosstabs-For-Release-v4.pdf)
21
Arizona Colorado
Maine North Carolina
Incumbent: Martha McSally (R)
Challenger: Mark Kelly (D)
Recent polling: Kelly +13
If Kelly can maintain this lead, it may
help Biden in this R-leaning state
Incumbent: Susan Collins (R)
Challenger (presumed): Sara Gideon (D)
Recent polling: Gideon +4
Incumbent: Cory Gardner (R)
Challenger (presumed): John
Hickenlooper (D)
Recent polling: Hickenlooper +18
Incumbent: Thom Tillis (R)
Challenger: Cal Cunningham (D)
Recent polling: Cunningham +1
Races in Montana, Alabama, Georgia, Iowa, Kentucky, and
South Carolina will also be interesting to watch.
22. Republicans need to pick up 20 seats in 2020 to retake the House.
22
Democrats 233
Republicans 198
Independents 1
Vacant 4
Retirements: 27 House
Republicans and 9 House
Democrats are retiring.
Democrats hold 16 seats
that are currently labeled
“toss ups.” Only 6
Republican seats hold the
same distinction.
23. Lean Dem Toss Up Lean Rep
AZ-01 O’Halleran NH-01 Pappas CA-21 Cox NM-02 Torres Small CA-25 Garcia AZ-06 Schweikert
NJ-02 Van
Drew
CA-39 Cisneros NJ-07 Malinowski GA-06 McBath NY-11 Rose GA-07 Open FL-15 Spano NY-02 Open
CA-48 Rouda NV-03 Lee IA-01 Finkenauer NY-22 Brindisi IL-13 Davis IN-05 Open OH-01 Chabot
FL-26 Mucarsel-
Powell
NY-19 Delgado IA-02 Open OK-05 Horn PA-10 Perry MI-03 Amash*
PA-01
Fitzpatrick
IL-14 Underwood PA-07 Wild IA-03 Axne PA-08 Cartwright TX-22 Open MO-02 Wagner TX-10 McCaul
KS-03 Davids TX-07 Fletcher ME-02 Golden SC-01 Cunningham TX-24 Open MT-At Large Open TX-21 Roy
MI-08 Slotkin TX-23 Open MN-07 Peterson VA-02 Luria
NE-02 Bacon
MI-11 Stevens TX-32 Allred NJ-03 Kim VA-07 Spanberger
MN-02 Craig UT-04 McAdams
To take control of the House, Republicans will need to retain all current
seats and flip 20 additional seats.
More vulnerable seats are held by Democrats, but most predict the House will remain
under Democratic control.
23
Source: Cook Political Report (https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings) Italics denote freshman representatives
*denotes an Independent
24. Upcoming calendar
Date Event
June 23 Primaries in Kentucky* and New York*
July 7 Primaries in Delaware* and New Jersey*
July 11 Primary in Louisiana*
July 12 Primary in Puerto Rico*
Aug. 11 Primary in Connecticut*
Aug. 17-20 Democratic convention in Milwaukee, WI*
Aug. 24-27 Republican convention in Jacksonville, FL (originally planned for Charlotte, NC)
Nov. 3 Election Day
24
* Rescheduled from earlier dates.