Analisamos a malha da Azul Linhas Aéreas no transporte aéreo brasileiro. Os resultados preliminares serviram para a elaboração da pesquisa final. Artigo inglês com o título "An empirical analysis of the determinants of network construction for Azul Airlines". Trabalho fruto do mestrado do aluno Bruno F. Oliveira (ITA), sob orientação do Prof. Alessandro V. M. Oliveira (ITA). Utilizou milhões de observações das rotas de transporte aéreo brasileiro ao longo de décadas, como forma de estimar determinantes de entrada nos mercados da Azul. Pergunta de pesquisa: quais os principais fatores que são levados em conta por uma grande companhia aérea como a Azul para entrar em rotas no transporte aéreo nacional? A pesquisa possui importantes implicações para o melhor entendimento dos problemas da aviação regional do país.

1. Resultados de
Pesquisa
Mapeamento de Fatores Condicionantes da
Malha de Voos da Azul Linhas Aéreas

2. Resumodo artigo “Oliveirae Oliveira(2022)”
• doi> OLIVEIRA, BRUNO F.; OLIVEIRA, ALESSANDRO V. M. An empirical analysis of the
determinants of network construction for Azul Airlines. Journal of Air Transport Management, v. 101,
102207, 2022. [documento de trabalho] [detalhes]
– Este artigo descreve um modelo econométrico da construção da malha da operadora doméstica
brasileira Azul Linhas Aéreas.
– Empregamos uma estrutura de escolha discreta de entrada de rotas aéreas para examinar os
efeitos da fusão de outra transportadora regional, Trip Airlines, com a Azul em 2012,
especialmente em suas decisões de entrada.
– Os resultados sugerem que após a fusão, a Azul adotou um padrão de entrada mais
idiossincrático, focando no segmento de voos regionais para conquistar muitas posições de
monopólio em todo o país, e fortalecendo sua rentabilidade sem comprometer seu ritmo
diferenciado de expansão no setor.
– A seguir apresentamos algumas discussões e resultados preliminares obtidos durante os
trabalhos de pesquisa, que motivam a análise do artigo final.

3. Malha de voosda Azul
www.gazetadopovo.com.br

4. Malha de voosda Azul
www.gazetadopovo.com.br

5. Malha de voosda Azul
www.gazetadopovo.com.br

6. Malha de voosda Azul

7. Malha de voosda Azul
• Como evoluiu a malha da empresa? Rotas das rivais? Novas rotas?
• Qual o papel da fusão com a regional Trip, 4 anos após o lançamento?
• Modelos econométricos
– Entrada e saída de pares de aeroportos no país
▪ 485 aeroportos usados pela aviação entre 2000 e julho de 2021
▪ amostra de 11 anos: 2008 a 2018
▪ 234,740 pares de aeroportos possíveis, sendo 3,575 usados
▪ Azul: 1,759 desses pares, em 136 aeroportos
– Dados da ANAC e diversas outras fontes (ex. Banco Central, Ipeadata, etc)

8. (1) ALL YEARS (2) ALL YEARS (3) BEF MERGER (4) AFT MERGER (5) ALL YEARS (6) ALL YEARS (7) BEF MERGER (8) AFT MERGER
KM 250-500 0.0337 0.0423 0.2351 -0.0023 -0.0232 -0.0755 0.0176 -0.0291
KM 500-1000 -0.0224 -0.0686 0.1527 -0.0532 -0.1819*** -0.4509*** -0.0111 -0.1928***
KM 1000-2000 -0.1943*** -0.5033*** 0.1765 -0.2809*** -0.3600*** -0.9714*** -0.0604 -0.3833***
KM ≥ 2000 -0.3595*** -0.9643*** -0.1323 -0.4572*** -0.5361*** -1.5600*** -0.1018 -0.5705***
POP 0.1363*** 0.3765*** 0.3207** 0.1970*** -0.0055 0.2296*** -1.2702*** 0.0940**
INC 0.4093*** 0.9119*** 0.2701 0.3078** 0.3993*** 1.2468*** 0.8994*** 0.2644***
TOUR 0.2989*** 0.7912*** 0.3078** 0.1692*** 0.1450*** 0.4757*** 0.7622*** 0.0768*
FSC 0.2485*** 0.6109*** 0.6675*** 0.2012*** 0.0597 0.2113 0.5291 0.0433
LCC -0.1523*** -0.7141*** 0.0060 -0.2223*** -0.2221*** -0.5809*** – -0.2022***
MED 0.2101*** 0.3409*** -0.0224 0.2757*** 0.1041** 0.2065* -0.3149 0.1168**
REG 0.2233*** 0.5389*** 0.1203 0.2185*** -0.0242 -0.0831 -0.0401 -0.0273
NEW 2.3791*** 6.0696*** 1.6513*** 2.5872*** 1.1654*** 3.1433*** 0.9567*** 1.1870***
SECND -0.1191** -0.1668 0.4995*** -0.4033*** -0.2348*** -0.6743*** – -0.2405***
INTNL -0.1402*** -0.2685** – -0.0414 0.0367 -0.1346 – 0.0468
SLOT -0.8227*** -1.8339*** -1.1295*** -0.7582*** -0.7280*** -1.8178*** – -0.7345***
HUB 0.3395*** 0.6463*** 0.6026*** 0.3175*** 0.3315*** 0.5748*** – 0.3477***
PAX 0.0995*** 0.3435*** 0.0771*** 0.1059*** 0.0620*** 0.1694*** 0.0283 0.0636***
HHI 0.2246*** 0.4690*** 0.2366*** 0.2327*** 0.2292*** 0.6271*** 0.3083*** 0.2323***
APTHHI 0.1071*** 0.3837*** 0.0390*** 0.1148*** 0.1383*** 0.4513*** 0.0396 0.1385***
TREND 0.4452*** 1.0433*** 2.0871*** 0.3119* 0.2728*** 1.0119*** 1.2735 0.1517
TREND × INC -0.0351*** -0.0763*** -0.1610** -0.0344* -0.0263*** -0.0843*** -0.2366** -0.0155
TREND × POP -0.0099*** -0.0350*** -0.0156 -0.0115 0.0167*** 0.0203*** 0.3334*** 0.0070
Estimator PROBIT RELOGIT PROBIT PROBIT PROBIT RELOGIT PROBIT PROBIT
Airport-Pair Clusters 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740
Log likelihood Statistic -7,885 -7,562 -797 -6,394 -7,893 -7,809 -94 -7,594
Pseudo R2 Statistic 0.5446 0.5633 0.5983 0.5719 0.3323 0.3395 0.4450 0.3157
AIC Statistic 15,817 15,172 1,637 12,835 15,833 15,666 224 15,233
BIC Statistic 16,110 15,478 1,896 13,118 16,126 15,972 436 15,516
Nr Observations 2,582,140 2,582,140 938,960 1,643,180 2,582,140 2,582,140 938,960 1,643,180
ENTRY EXIT
Estimation results: ENTRY and EXIT

9. (1) ALL YEARS (2) ALL YEARS (3) BEF MERGER (4) AFT MERGER (5) ALL YEARS (6) ALL YEARS (7) BEF MERGER (8) AFT MERGER
KM 250-500 0.0337 0.0423 0.2351 -0.0023 -0.0232 -0.0755 0.0176 -0.0291
KM 500-1000 -0.0224 -0.0686 0.1527 -0.0532 -0.1819*** -0.4509*** -0.0111 -0.1928***
KM 1000-2000 -0.1943*** -0.5033*** 0.1765 -0.2809*** -0.3600*** -0.9714*** -0.0604 -0.3833***
KM ≥ 2000 -0.3595*** -0.9643*** -0.1323 -0.4572*** -0.5361*** -1.5600*** -0.1018 -0.5705***
POP 0.1363*** 0.3765*** 0.3207** 0.1970*** -0.0055 0.2296*** -1.2702*** 0.0940**
INC 0.4093*** 0.9119*** 0.2701 0.3078** 0.3993*** 1.2468*** 0.8994*** 0.2644***
TOUR 0.2989*** 0.7912*** 0.3078** 0.1692*** 0.1450*** 0.4757*** 0.7622*** 0.0768*
FSC 0.2485*** 0.6109*** 0.6675*** 0.2012*** 0.0597 0.2113 0.5291 0.0433
LCC -0.1523*** -0.7141*** 0.0060 -0.2223*** -0.2221*** -0.5809*** – -0.2022***
MED 0.2101*** 0.3409*** -0.0224 0.2757*** 0.1041** 0.2065* -0.3149 0.1168**
REG 0.2233*** 0.5389*** 0.1203 0.2185*** -0.0242 -0.0831 -0.0401 -0.0273
NEW 2.3791*** 6.0696*** 1.6513*** 2.5872*** 1.1654*** 3.1433*** 0.9567*** 1.1870***
SECND -0.1191** -0.1668 0.4995*** -0.4033*** -0.2348*** -0.6743*** – -0.2405***
INTNL -0.1402*** -0.2685** – -0.0414 0.0367 -0.1346 – 0.0468
SLOT -0.8227*** -1.8339*** -1.1295*** -0.7582*** -0.7280*** -1.8178*** – -0.7345***
HUB 0.3395*** 0.6463*** 0.6026*** 0.3175*** 0.3315*** 0.5748*** – 0.3477***
PAX 0.0995*** 0.3435*** 0.0771*** 0.1059*** 0.0620*** 0.1694*** 0.0283 0.0636***
HHI 0.2246*** 0.4690*** 0.2366*** 0.2327*** 0.2292*** 0.6271*** 0.3083*** 0.2323***
APTHHI 0.1071*** 0.3837*** 0.0390*** 0.1148*** 0.1383*** 0.4513*** 0.0396 0.1385***
TREND 0.4452*** 1.0433*** 2.0871*** 0.3119* 0.2728*** 1.0119*** 1.2735 0.1517
TREND × INC -0.0351*** -0.0763*** -0.1610** -0.0344* -0.0263*** -0.0843*** -0.2366** -0.0155
TREND × POP -0.0099*** -0.0350*** -0.0156 -0.0115 0.0167*** 0.0203*** 0.3334*** 0.0070
Estimator PROBIT RELOGIT PROBIT PROBIT PROBIT RELOGIT PROBIT PROBIT
Airport-Pair Clusters 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740
Log likelihood Statistic -7,885 -7,562 -797 -6,394 -7,893 -7,809 -94 -7,594
Pseudo R2 Statistic 0.5446 0.5633 0.5983 0.5719 0.3323 0.3395 0.4450 0.3157
AIC Statistic 15,817 15,172 1,637 12,835 15,833 15,666 224 15,233
BIC Statistic 16,110 15,478 1,896 13,118 16,126 15,972 436 15,516
Nr Observations 2,582,140 2,582,140 938,960 1,643,180 2,582,140 2,582,140 938,960 1,643,180
ENTRY EXIT
Estimation results: ENTRY and EXIT

10. (1) ALL YEARS (2) ALL YEARS (3) BEF MERGER (4) AFT MERGER (5) ALL YEARS (6) ALL YEARS (7) BEF MERGER (8) AFT MERGER
KM 250-500 0.0337 0.0423 0.2351 -0.0023 -0.0232 -0.0755 0.0176 -0.0291
KM 500-1000 -0.0224 -0.0686 0.1527 -0.0532 -0.1819*** -0.4509*** -0.0111 -0.1928***
KM 1000-2000 -0.1943*** -0.5033*** 0.1765 -0.2809*** -0.3600*** -0.9714*** -0.0604 -0.3833***
KM ≥ 2000 -0.3595*** -0.9643*** -0.1323 -0.4572*** -0.5361*** -1.5600*** -0.1018 -0.5705***
POP 0.1363*** 0.3765*** 0.3207** 0.1970*** -0.0055 0.2296*** -1.2702*** 0.0940**
INC 0.4093*** 0.9119*** 0.2701 0.3078** 0.3993*** 1.2468*** 0.8994*** 0.2644***
TOUR 0.2989*** 0.7912*** 0.3078** 0.1692*** 0.1450*** 0.4757*** 0.7622*** 0.0768*
FSC 0.2485*** 0.6109*** 0.6675*** 0.2012*** 0.0597 0.2113 0.5291 0.0433
LCC -0.1523*** -0.7141*** 0.0060 -0.2223*** -0.2221*** -0.5809*** – -0.2022***
MED 0.2101*** 0.3409*** -0.0224 0.2757*** 0.1041** 0.2065* -0.3149 0.1168**
REG 0.2233*** 0.5389*** 0.1203 0.2185*** -0.0242 -0.0831 -0.0401 -0.0273
NEW 2.3791*** 6.0696*** 1.6513*** 2.5872*** 1.1654*** 3.1433*** 0.9567*** 1.1870***
SECND -0.1191** -0.1668 0.4995*** -0.4033*** -0.2348*** -0.6743*** – -0.2405***
INTNL -0.1402*** -0.2685** – -0.0414 0.0367 -0.1346 – 0.0468
SLOT -0.8227*** -1.8339*** -1.1295*** -0.7582*** -0.7280*** -1.8178*** – -0.7345***
HUB 0.3395*** 0.6463*** 0.6026*** 0.3175*** 0.3315*** 0.5748*** – 0.3477***
PAX 0.0995*** 0.3435*** 0.0771*** 0.1059*** 0.0620*** 0.1694*** 0.0283 0.0636***
HHI 0.2246*** 0.4690*** 0.2366*** 0.2327*** 0.2292*** 0.6271*** 0.3083*** 0.2323***
APTHHI 0.1071*** 0.3837*** 0.0390*** 0.1148*** 0.1383*** 0.4513*** 0.0396 0.1385***
TREND 0.4452*** 1.0433*** 2.0871*** 0.3119* 0.2728*** 1.0119*** 1.2735 0.1517
TREND × INC -0.0351*** -0.0763*** -0.1610** -0.0344* -0.0263*** -0.0843*** -0.2366** -0.0155
TREND × POP -0.0099*** -0.0350*** -0.0156 -0.0115 0.0167*** 0.0203*** 0.3334*** 0.0070
Estimator PROBIT RELOGIT PROBIT PROBIT PROBIT RELOGIT PROBIT PROBIT
Airport-Pair Clusters 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740
Log likelihood Statistic -7,885 -7,562 -797 -6,394 -7,893 -7,809 -94 -7,594
Pseudo R2 Statistic 0.5446 0.5633 0.5983 0.5719 0.3323 0.3395 0.4450 0.3157
AIC Statistic 15,817 15,172 1,637 12,835 15,833 15,666 224 15,233
BIC Statistic 16,110 15,478 1,896 13,118 16,126 15,972 436 15,516
Nr Observations 2,582,140 2,582,140 938,960 1,643,180 2,582,140 2,582,140 938,960 1,643,180
ENTRY EXIT
Estimation results: ENTRY and EXIT

11. (1) ALL YEARS (2) ALL YEARS (3) BEF MERGER (4) AFT MERGER (5) ALL YEARS (6) ALL YEARS (7) BEF MERGER (8) AFT MERGER
KM 250-500 0.0337 0.0423 0.2351 -0.0023 -0.0232 -0.0755 0.0176 -0.0291
KM 500-1000 -0.0224 -0.0686 0.1527 -0.0532 -0.1819*** -0.4509*** -0.0111 -0.1928***
KM 1000-2000 -0.1943*** -0.5033*** 0.1765 -0.2809*** -0.3600*** -0.9714*** -0.0604 -0.3833***
KM ≥ 2000 -0.3595*** -0.9643*** -0.1323 -0.4572*** -0.5361*** -1.5600*** -0.1018 -0.5705***
POP 0.1363*** 0.3765*** 0.3207** 0.1970*** -0.0055 0.2296*** -1.2702*** 0.0940**
INC 0.4093*** 0.9119*** 0.2701 0.3078** 0.3993*** 1.2468*** 0.8994*** 0.2644***
TOUR 0.2989*** 0.7912*** 0.3078** 0.1692*** 0.1450*** 0.4757*** 0.7622*** 0.0768*
FSC 0.2485*** 0.6109*** 0.6675*** 0.2012*** 0.0597 0.2113 0.5291 0.0433
LCC -0.1523*** -0.7141*** 0.0060 -0.2223*** -0.2221*** -0.5809*** – -0.2022***
MED 0.2101*** 0.3409*** -0.0224 0.2757*** 0.1041** 0.2065* -0.3149 0.1168**
REG 0.2233*** 0.5389*** 0.1203 0.2185*** -0.0242 -0.0831 -0.0401 -0.0273
NEW 2.3791*** 6.0696*** 1.6513*** 2.5872*** 1.1654*** 3.1433*** 0.9567*** 1.1870***
SECND -0.1191** -0.1668 0.4995*** -0.4033*** -0.2348*** -0.6743*** – -0.2405***
INTNL -0.1402*** -0.2685** – -0.0414 0.0367 -0.1346 – 0.0468
SLOT -0.8227*** -1.8339*** -1.1295*** -0.7582*** -0.7280*** -1.8178*** – -0.7345***
HUB 0.3395*** 0.6463*** 0.6026*** 0.3175*** 0.3315*** 0.5748*** – 0.3477***
PAX 0.0995*** 0.3435*** 0.0771*** 0.1059*** 0.0620*** 0.1694*** 0.0283 0.0636***
HHI 0.2246*** 0.4690*** 0.2366*** 0.2327*** 0.2292*** 0.6271*** 0.3083*** 0.2323***
APTHHI 0.1071*** 0.3837*** 0.0390*** 0.1148*** 0.1383*** 0.4513*** 0.0396 0.1385***
TREND 0.4452*** 1.0433*** 2.0871*** 0.3119* 0.2728*** 1.0119*** 1.2735 0.1517
TREND × INC -0.0351*** -0.0763*** -0.1610** -0.0344* -0.0263*** -0.0843*** -0.2366** -0.0155
TREND × POP -0.0099*** -0.0350*** -0.0156 -0.0115 0.0167*** 0.0203*** 0.3334*** 0.0070
Estimator PROBIT RELOGIT PROBIT PROBIT PROBIT RELOGIT PROBIT PROBIT
Airport-Pair Clusters 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740
Log likelihood Statistic -7,885 -7,562 -797 -6,394 -7,893 -7,809 -94 -7,594
Pseudo R2 Statistic 0.5446 0.5633 0.5983 0.5719 0.3323 0.3395 0.4450 0.3157
AIC Statistic 15,817 15,172 1,637 12,835 15,833 15,666 224 15,233
BIC Statistic 16,110 15,478 1,896 13,118 16,126 15,972 436 15,516
Nr Observations 2,582,140 2,582,140 938,960 1,643,180 2,582,140 2,582,140 938,960 1,643,180
ENTRY EXIT
Estimation results: ENTRY and EXIT

12. (1) ALL YEARS (2) ALL YEARS (3) BEF MERGER (4) AFT MERGER (5) ALL YEARS (6) ALL YEARS (7) BEF MERGER (8) AFT MERGER
KM 250-500 0.0337 0.0423 0.2351 -0.0023 -0.0232 -0.0755 0.0176 -0.0291
KM 500-1000 -0.0224 -0.0686 0.1527 -0.0532 -0.1819*** -0.4509*** -0.0111 -0.1928***
KM 1000-2000 -0.1943*** -0.5033*** 0.1765 -0.2809*** -0.3600*** -0.9714*** -0.0604 -0.3833***
KM ≥ 2000 -0.3595*** -0.9643*** -0.1323 -0.4572*** -0.5361*** -1.5600*** -0.1018 -0.5705***
POP 0.1363*** 0.3765*** 0.3207** 0.1970*** -0.0055 0.2296*** -1.2702*** 0.0940**
INC 0.4093*** 0.9119*** 0.2701 0.3078** 0.3993*** 1.2468*** 0.8994*** 0.2644***
TOUR 0.2989*** 0.7912*** 0.3078** 0.1692*** 0.1450*** 0.4757*** 0.7622*** 0.0768*
FSC 0.2485*** 0.6109*** 0.6675*** 0.2012*** 0.0597 0.2113 0.5291 0.0433
LCC -0.1523*** -0.7141*** 0.0060 -0.2223*** -0.2221*** -0.5809*** – -0.2022***
MED 0.2101*** 0.3409*** -0.0224 0.2757*** 0.1041** 0.2065* -0.3149 0.1168**
REG 0.2233*** 0.5389*** 0.1203 0.2185*** -0.0242 -0.0831 -0.0401 -0.0273
NEW 2.3791*** 6.0696*** 1.6513*** 2.5872*** 1.1654*** 3.1433*** 0.9567*** 1.1870***
SECND -0.1191** -0.1668 0.4995*** -0.4033*** -0.2348*** -0.6743*** – -0.2405***
INTNL -0.1402*** -0.2685** – -0.0414 0.0367 -0.1346 – 0.0468
SLOT -0.8227*** -1.8339*** -1.1295*** -0.7582*** -0.7280*** -1.8178*** – -0.7345***
HUB 0.3395*** 0.6463*** 0.6026*** 0.3175*** 0.3315*** 0.5748*** – 0.3477***
PAX 0.0995*** 0.3435*** 0.0771*** 0.1059*** 0.0620*** 0.1694*** 0.0283 0.0636***
HHI 0.2246*** 0.4690*** 0.2366*** 0.2327*** 0.2292*** 0.6271*** 0.3083*** 0.2323***
APTHHI 0.1071*** 0.3837*** 0.0390*** 0.1148*** 0.1383*** 0.4513*** 0.0396 0.1385***
TREND 0.4452*** 1.0433*** 2.0871*** 0.3119* 0.2728*** 1.0119*** 1.2735 0.1517
TREND × INC -0.0351*** -0.0763*** -0.1610** -0.0344* -0.0263*** -0.0843*** -0.2366** -0.0155
TREND × POP -0.0099*** -0.0350*** -0.0156 -0.0115 0.0167*** 0.0203*** 0.3334*** 0.0070
Estimator PROBIT RELOGIT PROBIT PROBIT PROBIT RELOGIT PROBIT PROBIT
Airport-Pair Clusters 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740
Log likelihood Statistic -7,885 -7,562 -797 -6,394 -7,893 -7,809 -94 -7,594
Pseudo R2 Statistic 0.5446 0.5633 0.5983 0.5719 0.3323 0.3395 0.4450 0.3157
AIC Statistic 15,817 15,172 1,637 12,835 15,833 15,666 224 15,233
BIC Statistic 16,110 15,478 1,896 13,118 16,126 15,972 436 15,516
Nr Observations 2,582,140 2,582,140 938,960 1,643,180 2,582,140 2,582,140 938,960 1,643,180
ENTRY EXIT
Estimation results: ENTRY and EXIT

13. (1) ALL YEARS (2) ALL YEARS (3) BEF MERGER (4) AFT MERGER (5) ALL YEARS (6) ALL YEARS (7) BEF MERGER (8) AFT MERGER
KM 250-500 0.0337 0.0423 0.2351 -0.0023 -0.0232 -0.0755 0.0176 -0.0291
KM 500-1000 -0.0224 -0.0686 0.1527 -0.0532 -0.1819*** -0.4509*** -0.0111 -0.1928***
KM 1000-2000 -0.1943*** -0.5033*** 0.1765 -0.2809*** -0.3600*** -0.9714*** -0.0604 -0.3833***
KM ≥ 2000 -0.3595*** -0.9643*** -0.1323 -0.4572*** -0.5361*** -1.5600*** -0.1018 -0.5705***
POP 0.1363*** 0.3765*** 0.3207** 0.1970*** -0.0055 0.2296*** -1.2702*** 0.0940**
INC 0.4093*** 0.9119*** 0.2701 0.3078** 0.3993*** 1.2468*** 0.8994*** 0.2644***
TOUR 0.2989*** 0.7912*** 0.3078** 0.1692*** 0.1450*** 0.4757*** 0.7622*** 0.0768*
FSC 0.2485*** 0.6109*** 0.6675*** 0.2012*** 0.0597 0.2113 0.5291 0.0433
LCC -0.1523*** -0.7141*** 0.0060 -0.2223*** -0.2221*** -0.5809*** – -0.2022***
MED 0.2101*** 0.3409*** -0.0224 0.2757*** 0.1041** 0.2065* -0.3149 0.1168**
REG 0.2233*** 0.5389*** 0.1203 0.2185*** -0.0242 -0.0831 -0.0401 -0.0273
NEW 2.3791*** 6.0696*** 1.6513*** 2.5872*** 1.1654*** 3.1433*** 0.9567*** 1.1870***
SECND -0.1191** -0.1668 0.4995*** -0.4033*** -0.2348*** -0.6743*** – -0.2405***
INTNL -0.1402*** -0.2685** – -0.0414 0.0367 -0.1346 – 0.0468
SLOT -0.8227*** -1.8339*** -1.1295*** -0.7582*** -0.7280*** -1.8178*** – -0.7345***
HUB 0.3395*** 0.6463*** 0.6026*** 0.3175*** 0.3315*** 0.5748*** – 0.3477***
PAX 0.0995*** 0.3435*** 0.0771*** 0.1059*** 0.0620*** 0.1694*** 0.0283 0.0636***
HHI 0.2246*** 0.4690*** 0.2366*** 0.2327*** 0.2292*** 0.6271*** 0.3083*** 0.2323***
APTHHI 0.1071*** 0.3837*** 0.0390*** 0.1148*** 0.1383*** 0.4513*** 0.0396 0.1385***
TREND 0.4452*** 1.0433*** 2.0871*** 0.3119* 0.2728*** 1.0119*** 1.2735 0.1517
TREND × INC -0.0351*** -0.0763*** -0.1610** -0.0344* -0.0263*** -0.0843*** -0.2366** -0.0155
TREND × POP -0.0099*** -0.0350*** -0.0156 -0.0115 0.0167*** 0.0203*** 0.3334*** 0.0070
Estimator PROBIT RELOGIT PROBIT PROBIT PROBIT RELOGIT PROBIT PROBIT
Airport-Pair Clusters 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740
Log likelihood Statistic -7,885 -7,562 -797 -6,394 -7,893 -7,809 -94 -7,594
Pseudo R2 Statistic 0.5446 0.5633 0.5983 0.5719 0.3323 0.3395 0.4450 0.3157
AIC Statistic 15,817 15,172 1,637 12,835 15,833 15,666 224 15,233
BIC Statistic 16,110 15,478 1,896 13,118 16,126 15,972 436 15,516
Nr Observations 2,582,140 2,582,140 938,960 1,643,180 2,582,140 2,582,140 938,960 1,643,180
ENTRY EXIT
Estimation results: ENTRY and EXIT

14. (1) ALL YEARS (2) ALL YEARS (3) BEF MERGER (4) AFT MERGER (5) ALL YEARS (6) ALL YEARS (7) BEF MERGER (8) AFT MERGER
KM 250-500 0.0337 0.0423 0.2351 -0.0023 -0.0232 -0.0755 0.0176 -0.0291
KM 500-1000 -0.0224 -0.0686 0.1527 -0.0532 -0.1819*** -0.4509*** -0.0111 -0.1928***
KM 1000-2000 -0.1943*** -0.5033*** 0.1765 -0.2809*** -0.3600*** -0.9714*** -0.0604 -0.3833***
KM ≥ 2000 -0.3595*** -0.9643*** -0.1323 -0.4572*** -0.5361*** -1.5600*** -0.1018 -0.5705***
POP 0.1363*** 0.3765*** 0.3207** 0.1970*** -0.0055 0.2296*** -1.2702*** 0.0940**
INC 0.4093*** 0.9119*** 0.2701 0.3078** 0.3993*** 1.2468*** 0.8994*** 0.2644***
TOUR 0.2989*** 0.7912*** 0.3078** 0.1692*** 0.1450*** 0.4757*** 0.7622*** 0.0768*
FSC 0.2485*** 0.6109*** 0.6675*** 0.2012*** 0.0597 0.2113 0.5291 0.0433
LCC -0.1523*** -0.7141*** 0.0060 -0.2223*** -0.2221*** -0.5809*** – -0.2022***
MED 0.2101*** 0.3409*** -0.0224 0.2757*** 0.1041** 0.2065* -0.3149 0.1168**
REG 0.2233*** 0.5389*** 0.1203 0.2185*** -0.0242 -0.0831 -0.0401 -0.0273
NEW 2.3791*** 6.0696*** 1.6513*** 2.5872*** 1.1654*** 3.1433*** 0.9567*** 1.1870***
SECND -0.1191** -0.1668 0.4995*** -0.4033*** -0.2348*** -0.6743*** – -0.2405***
INTNL -0.1402*** -0.2685** – -0.0414 0.0367 -0.1346 – 0.0468
SLOT -0.8227*** -1.8339*** -1.1295*** -0.7582*** -0.7280*** -1.8178*** – -0.7345***
HUB 0.3395*** 0.6463*** 0.6026*** 0.3175*** 0.3315*** 0.5748*** – 0.3477***
PAX 0.0995*** 0.3435*** 0.0771*** 0.1059*** 0.0620*** 0.1694*** 0.0283 0.0636***
HHI 0.2246*** 0.4690*** 0.2366*** 0.2327*** 0.2292*** 0.6271*** 0.3083*** 0.2323***
APTHHI 0.1071*** 0.3837*** 0.0390*** 0.1148*** 0.1383*** 0.4513*** 0.0396 0.1385***
TREND 0.4452*** 1.0433*** 2.0871*** 0.3119* 0.2728*** 1.0119*** 1.2735 0.1517
TREND × INC -0.0351*** -0.0763*** -0.1610** -0.0344* -0.0263*** -0.0843*** -0.2366** -0.0155
TREND × POP -0.0099*** -0.0350*** -0.0156 -0.0115 0.0167*** 0.0203*** 0.3334*** 0.0070
Estimator PROBIT RELOGIT PROBIT PROBIT PROBIT RELOGIT PROBIT PROBIT
Airport-Pair Clusters 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740
Log likelihood Statistic -7,885 -7,562 -797 -6,394 -7,893 -7,809 -94 -7,594
Pseudo R2 Statistic 0.5446 0.5633 0.5983 0.5719 0.3323 0.3395 0.4450 0.3157
AIC Statistic 15,817 15,172 1,637 12,835 15,833 15,666 224 15,233
BIC Statistic 16,110 15,478 1,896 13,118 16,126 15,972 436 15,516
Nr Observations 2,582,140 2,582,140 938,960 1,643,180 2,582,140 2,582,140 938,960 1,643,180
ENTRY EXIT
Estimation results: ENTRY and EXIT

15. (1) ALL YEARS (2) ALL YEARS (3) BEF MERGER (4) AFT MERGER (5) ALL YEARS (6) ALL YEARS (7) BEF MERGER (8) AFT MERGER
KM 250-500 0.0337 0.0423 0.2351 -0.0023 -0.0232 -0.0755 0.0176 -0.0291
KM 500-1000 -0.0224 -0.0686 0.1527 -0.0532 -0.1819*** -0.4509*** -0.0111 -0.1928***
KM 1000-2000 -0.1943*** -0.5033*** 0.1765 -0.2809*** -0.3600*** -0.9714*** -0.0604 -0.3833***
KM ≥ 2000 -0.3595*** -0.9643*** -0.1323 -0.4572*** -0.5361*** -1.5600*** -0.1018 -0.5705***
POP 0.1363*** 0.3765*** 0.3207** 0.1970*** -0.0055 0.2296*** -1.2702*** 0.0940**
INC 0.4093*** 0.9119*** 0.2701 0.3078** 0.3993*** 1.2468*** 0.8994*** 0.2644***
TOUR 0.2989*** 0.7912*** 0.3078** 0.1692*** 0.1450*** 0.4757*** 0.7622*** 0.0768*
FSC 0.2485*** 0.6109*** 0.6675*** 0.2012*** 0.0597 0.2113 0.5291 0.0433
LCC -0.1523*** -0.7141*** 0.0060 -0.2223*** -0.2221*** -0.5809*** – -0.2022***
MED 0.2101*** 0.3409*** -0.0224 0.2757*** 0.1041** 0.2065* -0.3149 0.1168**
REG 0.2233*** 0.5389*** 0.1203 0.2185*** -0.0242 -0.0831 -0.0401 -0.0273
NEW 2.3791*** 6.0696*** 1.6513*** 2.5872*** 1.1654*** 3.1433*** 0.9567*** 1.1870***
SECND -0.1191** -0.1668 0.4995*** -0.4033*** -0.2348*** -0.6743*** – -0.2405***
INTNL -0.1402*** -0.2685** – -0.0414 0.0367 -0.1346 – 0.0468
SLOT -0.8227*** -1.8339*** -1.1295*** -0.7582*** -0.7280*** -1.8178*** – -0.7345***
HUB 0.3395*** 0.6463*** 0.6026*** 0.3175*** 0.3315*** 0.5748*** – 0.3477***
PAX 0.0995*** 0.3435*** 0.0771*** 0.1059*** 0.0620*** 0.1694*** 0.0283 0.0636***
HHI 0.2246*** 0.4690*** 0.2366*** 0.2327*** 0.2292*** 0.6271*** 0.3083*** 0.2323***
APTHHI 0.1071*** 0.3837*** 0.0390*** 0.1148*** 0.1383*** 0.4513*** 0.0396 0.1385***
TREND 0.4452*** 1.0433*** 2.0871*** 0.3119* 0.2728*** 1.0119*** 1.2735 0.1517
TREND × INC -0.0351*** -0.0763*** -0.1610** -0.0344* -0.0263*** -0.0843*** -0.2366** -0.0155
TREND × POP -0.0099*** -0.0350*** -0.0156 -0.0115 0.0167*** 0.0203*** 0.3334*** 0.0070
Estimator PROBIT RELOGIT PROBIT PROBIT PROBIT RELOGIT PROBIT PROBIT
Airport-Pair Clusters 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740
Log likelihood Statistic -7,885 -7,562 -797 -6,394 -7,893 -7,809 -94 -7,594
Pseudo R2 Statistic 0.5446 0.5633 0.5983 0.5719 0.3323 0.3395 0.4450 0.3157
AIC Statistic 15,817 15,172 1,637 12,835 15,833 15,666 224 15,233
BIC Statistic 16,110 15,478 1,896 13,118 16,126 15,972 436 15,516
Nr Observations 2,582,140 2,582,140 938,960 1,643,180 2,582,140 2,582,140 938,960 1,643,180
ENTRY EXIT
Estimation results: ENTRY and EXIT

16. (1) ALL YEARS (2) ALL YEARS (3) BEF MERGER (4) AFT MERGER (5) ALL YEARS (6) ALL YEARS (7) BEF MERGER (8) AFT MERGER
KM 250-500 0.0337 0.0423 0.2351 -0.0023 -0.0232 -0.0755 0.0176 -0.0291
KM 500-1000 -0.0224 -0.0686 0.1527 -0.0532 -0.1819*** -0.4509*** -0.0111 -0.1928***
KM 1000-2000 -0.1943*** -0.5033*** 0.1765 -0.2809*** -0.3600*** -0.9714*** -0.0604 -0.3833***
KM ≥ 2000 -0.3595*** -0.9643*** -0.1323 -0.4572*** -0.5361*** -1.5600*** -0.1018 -0.5705***
POP 0.1363*** 0.3765*** 0.3207** 0.1970*** -0.0055 0.2296*** -1.2702*** 0.0940**
INC 0.4093*** 0.9119*** 0.2701 0.3078** 0.3993*** 1.2468*** 0.8994*** 0.2644***
TOUR 0.2989*** 0.7912*** 0.3078** 0.1692*** 0.1450*** 0.4757*** 0.7622*** 0.0768*
FSC 0.2485*** 0.6109*** 0.6675*** 0.2012*** 0.0597 0.2113 0.5291 0.0433
LCC -0.1523*** -0.7141*** 0.0060 -0.2223*** -0.2221*** -0.5809*** – -0.2022***
MED 0.2101*** 0.3409*** -0.0224 0.2757*** 0.1041** 0.2065* -0.3149 0.1168**
REG 0.2233*** 0.5389*** 0.1203 0.2185*** -0.0242 -0.0831 -0.0401 -0.0273
NEW 2.3791*** 6.0696*** 1.6513*** 2.5872*** 1.1654*** 3.1433*** 0.9567*** 1.1870***
SECND -0.1191** -0.1668 0.4995*** -0.4033*** -0.2348*** -0.6743*** – -0.2405***
INTNL -0.1402*** -0.2685** – -0.0414 0.0367 -0.1346 – 0.0468
SLOT -0.8227*** -1.8339*** -1.1295*** -0.7582*** -0.7280*** -1.8178*** – -0.7345***
HUB 0.3395*** 0.6463*** 0.6026*** 0.3175*** 0.3315*** 0.5748*** – 0.3477***
PAX 0.0995*** 0.3435*** 0.0771*** 0.1059*** 0.0620*** 0.1694*** 0.0283 0.0636***
HHI 0.2246*** 0.4690*** 0.2366*** 0.2327*** 0.2292*** 0.6271*** 0.3083*** 0.2323***
APTHHI 0.1071*** 0.3837*** 0.0390*** 0.1148*** 0.1383*** 0.4513*** 0.0396 0.1385***
TREND 0.4452*** 1.0433*** 2.0871*** 0.3119* 0.2728*** 1.0119*** 1.2735 0.1517
TREND × INC -0.0351*** -0.0763*** -0.1610** -0.0344* -0.0263*** -0.0843*** -0.2366** -0.0155
TREND × POP -0.0099*** -0.0350*** -0.0156 -0.0115 0.0167*** 0.0203*** 0.3334*** 0.0070
Estimator PROBIT RELOGIT PROBIT PROBIT PROBIT RELOGIT PROBIT PROBIT
Airport-Pair Clusters 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740
Log likelihood Statistic -7,885 -7,562 -797 -6,394 -7,893 -7,809 -94 -7,594
Pseudo R2 Statistic 0.5446 0.5633 0.5983 0.5719 0.3323 0.3395 0.4450 0.3157
AIC Statistic 15,817 15,172 1,637 12,835 15,833 15,666 224 15,233
BIC Statistic 16,110 15,478 1,896 13,118 16,126 15,972 436 15,516
Nr Observations 2,582,140 2,582,140 938,960 1,643,180 2,582,140 2,582,140 938,960 1,643,180
ENTRY EXIT
Estimation results: ENTRY and EXIT

17. (1) ALL YEARS (2) ALL YEARS (3) BEF MERGER (4) AFT MERGER (5) ALL YEARS (6) ALL YEARS (7) BEF MERGER (8) AFT MERGER
KM 250-500 0.0337 0.0423 0.2351 -0.0023 -0.0232 -0.0755 0.0176 -0.0291
KM 500-1000 -0.0224 -0.0686 0.1527 -0.0532 -0.1819*** -0.4509*** -0.0111 -0.1928***
KM 1000-2000 -0.1943*** -0.5033*** 0.1765 -0.2809*** -0.3600*** -0.9714*** -0.0604 -0.3833***
KM ≥ 2000 -0.3595*** -0.9643*** -0.1323 -0.4572*** -0.5361*** -1.5600*** -0.1018 -0.5705***
POP 0.1363*** 0.3765*** 0.3207** 0.1970*** -0.0055 0.2296*** -1.2702*** 0.0940**
INC 0.4093*** 0.9119*** 0.2701 0.3078** 0.3993*** 1.2468*** 0.8994*** 0.2644***
TOUR 0.2989*** 0.7912*** 0.3078** 0.1692*** 0.1450*** 0.4757*** 0.7622*** 0.0768*
FSC 0.2485*** 0.6109*** 0.6675*** 0.2012*** 0.0597 0.2113 0.5291 0.0433
LCC -0.1523*** -0.7141*** 0.0060 -0.2223*** -0.2221*** -0.5809*** – -0.2022***
MED 0.2101*** 0.3409*** -0.0224 0.2757*** 0.1041** 0.2065* -0.3149 0.1168**
REG 0.2233*** 0.5389*** 0.1203 0.2185*** -0.0242 -0.0831 -0.0401 -0.0273
NEW 2.3791*** 6.0696*** 1.6513*** 2.5872*** 1.1654*** 3.1433*** 0.9567*** 1.1870***
SECND -0.1191** -0.1668 0.4995*** -0.4033*** -0.2348*** -0.6743*** – -0.2405***
INTNL -0.1402*** -0.2685** – -0.0414 0.0367 -0.1346 – 0.0468
SLOT -0.8227*** -1.8339*** -1.1295*** -0.7582*** -0.7280*** -1.8178*** – -0.7345***
HUB 0.3395*** 0.6463*** 0.6026*** 0.3175*** 0.3315*** 0.5748*** – 0.3477***
PAX 0.0995*** 0.3435*** 0.0771*** 0.1059*** 0.0620*** 0.1694*** 0.0283 0.0636***
HHI 0.2246*** 0.4690*** 0.2366*** 0.2327*** 0.2292*** 0.6271*** 0.3083*** 0.2323***
APTHHI 0.1071*** 0.3837*** 0.0390*** 0.1148*** 0.1383*** 0.4513*** 0.0396 0.1385***
TREND 0.4452*** 1.0433*** 2.0871*** 0.3119* 0.2728*** 1.0119*** 1.2735 0.1517
TREND × INC -0.0351*** -0.0763*** -0.1610** -0.0344* -0.0263*** -0.0843*** -0.2366** -0.0155
TREND × POP -0.0099*** -0.0350*** -0.0156 -0.0115 0.0167*** 0.0203*** 0.3334*** 0.0070
Estimator PROBIT RELOGIT PROBIT PROBIT PROBIT RELOGIT PROBIT PROBIT
Airport-Pair Clusters 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740 234,740
Log likelihood Statistic -7,885 -7,562 -797 -6,394 -7,893 -7,809 -94 -7,594
Pseudo R2 Statistic 0.5446 0.5633 0.5983 0.5719 0.3323 0.3395 0.4450 0.3157
AIC Statistic 15,817 15,172 1,637 12,835 15,833 15,666 224 15,233
BIC Statistic 16,110 15,478 1,896 13,118 16,126 15,972 436 15,516
Nr Observations 2,582,140 2,582,140 938,960 1,643,180 2,582,140 2,582,140 938,960 1,643,180
ENTRY EXIT
Estimation results: ENTRY and EXIT

18. Conclusões
• A malha preexistente foi um molde inicial
– densidade existente, mas tb população e renda = demanda latente
• criação de novos mercados de fato foi um dos fatores importantes
• Mais até no pós-fusão do que antes da fusão
• Distância curta priorizada a partir da fusão, voos regionais
• A malha foi ganhando novas cidades, mas a renda per capita foi caindo
• Aeroporto secundário deixou de ser impulsionador
• A empresa busca atuar em mercados e aeroportos antes concentrados

19. 1977
NECTAR-ITA
Esteartigo(evídeorelacionado)podeserencontradoem
https://nectar-lit.blogspot.com/2022/04/uma-analise-empirica-dos-
determinantes.html

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• doi> OLIVEIRA, BRUNO F.; OLIVEIRA, ALESSANDRO V. M. An empirical analysis of the determinants of
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Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, v. 145, p. 102186, 2021. (página). [documento de
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• doi> NARCIZO, R. R.; OLIVEIRA, A. V. M.; DRESNER, M. E. An empirical model of airline fleet
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• doi> MARQUES JR., C. H.; ELLER, R. A. G.; OLIVEIRA, A. V. M. Are passengers less willing to pay for flying
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• doi> MIRANDA, V. A. P.; OLIVEIRA, A. V. M. Airport slots and the internalization of congestion by
airlines. Transportation Research. Part A, Policy and Practice, v. 116, Mar, p. 201-2019, 2018. [documento de
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• doi> OLIVEIRA, M. V. R.; OLIVEIRA, A. V. M. What drives effective competition in the airline industry? An
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• doi> BETTINI, H. F. A. J.; SILVEIRA, J. M. F. J.; OLIVEIRA, A. V. M. Estimating strategic responses to the
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• doi> BENDINELLI, W. E.; BETTINI, H. F.; OLIVEIRA, A. V. M. Airline Delays, Congestion Internalization and
Non-Price Spillover Effects of Low Cost Carrier Entry. Transportation Research. Part A, Policy and Practice, v.
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Journal of Transport Literature, v. 7, p. 284-296, 2013. [documento de trabalho] [detalhes]
• doi> HUSE, C.; OLIVEIRA, A. V. M. Does product differentiation soften price reactions to entry? Evidence from
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• doi> COSTA, T. F. G.; LOHMANN, G.; OLIVEIRA, A. V. M. A model to identify airport hubs and their
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• doi> OLIVEIRA, A. V. M. An empirical model of low-cost carrier entry. Transportation Research. Part A, Policy
and Practice, v. 42, p. 673-695, 2008. [documento de trabalho] [detalhes]
• doi> BETTINI, H. F. A. J.; OLIVEIRA, A. V. M. Airline Capacity Setting After Re-regulation: The Brazilian Case
in the Early 2000s. Journal of Air Transport Management, v. 14, p. 4-20, 2008. [documento de trabalho] [detalhes]
• doi> TUROLLA, F. A.; VASSALLO, M. D.; OLIVEIRA, A. V. M. Intermodal Competition in the Brazilian
Interstate Travel Market. Economic Analysis Review, v. 23, n. 1 p. 21-33, 2008. [documento de trabalho] [detalhes]
• doi> OLIVEIRA, A. V. M. Simulating revenue management in an airline market with demand segmentation and
strategic interaction. Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management, London, UK, v. 1, n.4, p. 301-318,
2003. [documento de trabalho] [detalhes]

27. Resultados de
Pesquisa
Mapeamento de Fatores Condicionantes da
Malha de Voos da Azul Linhas Aéreas