Presented by David Wood, Principal, Delta Wisdom In this talk anticipating future scenarios for smart devices, futurist and smartphone industry pioneer David Wood suggests answers to a number of key questions. What are the key trends we should be watching, to see if they'll ever emerge from a slow disappointing phase into a fast and furious phase? How might these trends combine to shake up present-day usage patterns? Will the successors of the smartphone accelerate a Brave New World, and/or make Black Mirror a reality? And what can we learn from past predictions of future smartphone scenarios? *** Shared with Permission ***

1. David Wood
@dw2
londonfuturists.com
Scenarios for smart devices in 2025
Brave New Smartphone and/or Black Mirror?
deltawisdom.com Graphic adapted from Imperial College TMT event

2. @dw2 Page 2
Brave New Smartphone?
Frightened into submission?
Distracted into triviality?
Manipulated into compliance?
2025
smartphone?
SOMA
Access to a
fake world
that’s more
engaging
than the
real world?
Something that deeply exploits human psychology?

3. @dw2 Page 3
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2017/11/09/facebooks-
first-president-on-facebook-god-only-knows-what-its-doing-to-our-childrens-brains/
Facebook’s first
president, on Facebook:
“You’re exploiting a
vulnerability in
human psychology…”
“God only knows
what it’s doing to our
children’s brains”
Mark Zuckerberg and Sean Parker
https://www.axios.com/sean-parker-unloads-
on-facebook-2508036343.html

4. @dw2 Page 4
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/10/early-facebook-employees-
regret-the-monster-they-created
“Most of the early employees I know
are totally overwhelmed by what
this thing has become”
“They look at the role Facebook now plays in society, and how
Russia used it during the election to elect Trump, and they have
this sort of ‘Oh my God, what have I done’ moment.”
“I lie awake at night thinking about all the things we built in the
early days and what we could have done to avoid the product
being used this way”
“Some early Facebook employees regret the monster they created”
Think harder about the consequences in advance

5. @dw2 Page 5http://mashable.com/2014/04/30/facebooks-new-mantra-move-fast-with-stability/

6. @dw2 Page 6
Answers?
Questions!
Trend analysis
Scenario analysis
Key skills:
Imagination
Collaboration
Strategy
Agility
Enhancement
Futurist?Disappointment
ahead of disruption
Envision future scenarios
Evaluate future scenarios
Overcome
future shock
Tools
1. Credible?
2. Desirable?
3. Actionable?

7. @dw2 Page 7
“History does not repeat itself,
but it rhymes”
Attributed to
Mark Twain, novellist
http://quoteinvestigator.com/2014/01/12/history-rhymes/

8. @dw2 Page 8

9. @dw2 Page 9Vision: June 1998
Positive
feedback
cycle
Spotted
trends
Anticipated
convergence
Patiently built a platform for collaboration

10. @dw2 Page 10
Handset
manufacturers
Consumers &
enterprises
Developers
NetworksEnhanced 2.5G and 3G
networks:
packets, high bandwidth,
good roaming, low latency
Large volumes of
advanced open
programmable
mobile phones
Mobile services,
content & apps:
boost revenues
(both data & voice)
Rich
component technologies
(hardware & software)
Standard open mobile OS
The smartphone market virtuous cycle

11. @dw2 Page 11
facts and figures
• Original (1998) business plan predicted profitability in 3 years (2001)
• In reality it took 7 years to become profitable (2005)
– We needed three additional major rounds of investment
– It took longer than expected to evolve technical platform solutions
• 8 years to reach 100 million smartphones sold (96 months)
• Another 18 months to sell next 100 million (< 96 weeks)
• Another 36 months to sell next 300 million (to 2010)
• But by this time, the high-profile, high-profit smartphones
were being powered by iOS and Android (“phase 2 smartphones”)
• Symbian and partners had been overtaken by faster, more nimble,
more effective companies from Silicon Valley

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Disruption in the last 12 years

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Smartphone
Capability
Time
Feature
phones
(phase 0)
Phase 1
smartphones
1990 2000 2010
Software
relatively
unimportant
Software
important
Software
critical
Mini-computers
Supercomputers
Phase 2
smartphones
(superphones)
“Software is eating the world”
The future arrives in waves
Transitions between waves are difficult

14. @dw2 Page 14
New platform
capability
Disappointment
Further
Disappointment
Again!
Old platform
no longer
competitive
Disruptions can take a long time in gestation
Even though they may eventually seem to blossom quickly
Previous
platform
New
processes,
skills &
tools
critically
important
New platform hype
Poor usability, hard to configure
Services & apps missing or inadequate
Prepare for
the change!
Opportunity:
Take charge of
the change!
Technology
enthusiasts

15. @dw2 Page 15
Not being able to act on spotting the change
Worldview Phone-centric
(Smartphones phase 1)
Internet-centric
(Smartphones phase 2)
Most important app
Most important partners
Third-party apps (openness)
Source of most innovation
US market Dramatic influencerA laggard (troublesome)
Mobile industry
“Nice to have”
Network operators
Telephony (phone app)
Silicon Valley (and similar)
Fundamental new value
Silicon Valley developers
Web-browser (& web apps)
Smartphone characteristic Expensive, powerful, data-richSmall, robust, low cost
Not anticipating the degree of change

16. @dw2 Page 16
Corporate inertia
• It’s hard to turn around
an oil tanker
• It’s even harder to turn
around a flotilla of oil
tankers, all moving in
close formation
– Doing things that used to make their company successful
• The company often knows what needs to be done… but
is unable to implement these changes
– Advice from analysts is often accepted but then ignored
http://www.largestships.com/seawise-giant/
Knowing-doing gap!

17. @dw2 Page 17
Scientific method Open society
1st Industrial Revolution
Steam, mechanisation
1760…
2nd Industrial Revolution
Electricity, chemicals, mass production
1880…
3rd Industrial Revolution
Computers, electronics
1960…
4th Industrial Revolution
NBIC convergence
2010…
Technological
change
+120 years
+80 years
+50 years

18. @dw2 Page 18
BN
CI
NBIC Convergence
The 4th Industrial Revolution

19. @dw2 Page 19
Atoms Genes
Bits Neurons
Bio-
Tech
Nano-
Tech
Cogno-
Tech
Info-
Tech
Software
Hardware
BiologyPhysical
New
machines
New
algorithms
New
minds
New
life

20. @dw2 Page 20
B: Biotech:
Genetic editing
Stem cell therapies
Lab-grown meat
Enhanced pets
The abolition of aging
N: Nanotech:
Molecular manufacturing
3D & 4D printing
Nanobots & nanosensors
Next gen Green Energy
Quantum computers
I: Infotech:
Machine learning -> AGI
Artificial creativity
Affective computing (EQ)
Wearable computers
Augmented Reality
C: Cognotech:
Brain Computer Interfaces
Next gen Virtual Reality
Nootropics (smart drugs)
Mind suspension (cryonics)
Consciousness engineering
Socialtech:
Finance
Ledgers
Clouds
Laws
Markets
Regulations
Privacy
Security
Politics
Planetary tech:
Hyperloop
Drone swarms
Geo-engineering
Asteroid mining
Space habitation

21. @dw2 Page 21
Beyond smartphones?
• 1990s: Basic phones -> Feature phones
• 2000s: PDAs -> Smartphones (phase 1)
• 2010s: Smartphones -> Superphones
• 2020s: ?
– Smart glasses (wearable computers)
– Superphones in which AI is the leading app
– SHAs: Smart Human Augmenters

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SHAs that: (1) Keep an eye on us
• Observe what we’re doing (not just what we type)
– Listening to us, and to what we’re listening to
– Seeing us, and what we’re seeing
– Feeling what we’re feeling
• Utilising
– Speech recognition (and other sound recognition)
– Computer vision (recognise objects, facial micro-expressions)
– Information from IDs and sensors embedded in the environment
– Communications within the IoT
– Contextual knowledge
– Computer general common sense
more accurately
than our own senses
=> The IoAI:
Internet of AIs

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The Guardian, 21st May 2015
“Computers will have
developed ‘common
sense’ within a decade
and we could be counting
them among our friends
not long afterwards”
Geoffrey Hinton
University of Toronto
“Godfather of deep learning”

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SHAs that: (2) Act as our guardian angel
• Prevent us doing things against our better interest
– Especially when we may be vulnerable
– Impulse purchases
– Actions likely to be injurious to our health
– When we’re about to be socially engineered
– Impulse votes or petition signatures
– People to spend time with or fall in love with
• Utilising
– Knowledge about us, the environment, and general knowledge
“Don’t type your
password into that
screen”
The evolution of our spam filters and our newsfeeds

25. @dw2 Page 25https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/golfscape-gps-rangefinder/id382051762
Augmented
Reality (AR)
via smart
glasses

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SHAs that: (3) Augment our understanding
• Provide us key real-time info about the real-world
– Smart glasses, whisperers, nudgers, voice of God
– While attending to work tasks
– When we’re touring or sight-seeing
– While interacting with speakers of foreign languages
– While learning new skills (or hobbies)
– In social settings (who exactly is this person?)
– While watching TV or browsing online
– Providing instant, personalised fact-checking

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SHAs that: (4) Transact for us
• Execute our intent, even without our direct involvement
– With increasing degrees of delegated authority
– Finding the best deals for us for goods we purchase
– Recommending books or films or restaurants
– Purchasing shares that match our investment interests
– Steering us towards the best companions at social events
– Rearranging our schedules and booking us into best parties
– Sending tailored versions of our CV to job opportunities
– Negotiating with the online AIs serving other humans
The evolution of comparison websites

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SHAs that: (5) Become our best friends
• Engage us in conversations that enrich and enhance us
– The evolution of present-day chatbots
– Know us better than we know ourselves
– Know the best time to broach various subjects
– Know the best style of interaction for us
– Avoid annoying us or boring us, or appearing to nag
– Know the subjects that most intrigue us
– Act as fascinating, enlightening conversationalists
– Connect to our innermost self
– Steering us towards important personal realisations

29. @dw2 Page 29
Online AIsSHAs
Provided we solve the issues of security,
collective human interaction design, etc
Get the socialtech right

30. @dw2 Page 30https://deltawisdom.com/books/